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MEPAG Report from the Ice and Climate Evolution Science Analysis Group (ICE-SAG)

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MEPAG Report from the Ice and Climate Evolution Science Analysis Group (ICE-SAG) MEPAG Report from the Ice and Climate Evolution Science Analysis group (ICE-SAG) FINAL VERSION – July 8, 2019 Recommended bibliographic citation for this pre-print draft: MEPAG ICE-SAG Final Report (2019), Report from the Ice and Climate Evolution Science Analysis group (ICE-SAG), Chaired by S. Diniega and N. E. Putzig, 157 pages posted 08 July 2019, by the Mars Exploration Program Analysis Group (MEPAG) at http://mepag.nasa.gov/reports.cfm. ICE-SAG Final Report, 08 July 2019 ICE-SAG Membership NAME INSTITUTION MARS SCIENCE EXPERTISE subsurface, thermal properties, Than Putzig (Co-Chair) Planetary Science Inst. resources Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Serina Diniega (Co-Chair) California Institute of surface activity, geomorphology Technology Shane Byrne University of Arizona polar caps and layered deposits polar caps ice composition, surface Wendy Calvin Univ. Nevada - Reno mineralogy subsurface ice, surface activity, Colin Dundas US Geological Survey geomorphology Lori Fenton SETI Institute aeolian, climate Paul Hayne University of Colorado atmosphere David Hollibaugh Baker NASA - Goddard subsurface ice, geomorphology Jack Holt University of Arizona subsurface ice polar caps and layered deposits, ice Christine Hvidberg Univ. of Copenhagen drilling Melinda Kahre NASA - Ames climate modeling Michael Mischna Jet Propulsion Lab. climate modeling Gareth Morgan Planetary Science Inst. volcanism, periglacial, radar, field Dorothy Oehler Planetary Science Inst. astrobiology, resources Anya Portyankina University of Colorado surface ice, CO2 ice lab Deanne Rogers Stony Brook University surface mineralogy subsurface ice, volatile transfer in Hanna Sizemore Planetary Science Inst. regolith lab Planetary Science Inst. + polar layered deposits, subsurface ice, Isaac Smith York University climate Alejandro Soto Southwest Res. Inst. climate Leslie Tamppari Jet Propulsion Lab. atmosphere Timothy Titus US Geological Survey climate, surface activity Chris Webster Jet Propulsion Lab. isotopic records Pre-decisional information, for planning and discussion only 1 ICE-SAG Final Report, 08 July 2019 Contents Executive Summary 7 1 Purpose and structure of ICE-SAG 12 1.1 The Importance and Timeliness of Mars Ice and Climate Science Investigations 12 1.2 Goal and Scope of this SAG 13 1.3 ICE-SAG Tasks and Structure 14 2 Current State of Knowledge 17 2.1 Recent Climate Record: Ice Reservoirs 19 2.1.1 Residual Caps and Polar Layered Deposits (PLD) 19 2.1.2 Sub-PLD ice deposits 21 2.1.3 Non-polar subsurface ice deposits 22 2.2 Volatile Exchange with other Reservoirs & their Relation to the Climate Record 25 2.2.1 Atmospheric volatile history 25 2.2.2 H2O exchange with the regolith and liquid water activity 27 2.2.3 Methane 27 2.3 Atmosphere State and Dynamics 29 2.3.1 Atmospheric circulation and cycles 29 2.3.2 Present key atmosphere constituents and meteorology 31 2.4 Surface Environment and Processes 33 2.4.1 Boundary layer meteorology 33 2.4.2 Seasonal frost 36 2.4.3 Surface activity 37 3 Compelling Ice and Climate Science Questions, and Needed Measurements 40 3.1 Priority Science Area A: Transport of volatiles and dust into and out of ice reservoirs 43 3.1.1 Measurements to study the transport of volatiles and dust (A) 45 3.2 Priority Science Area B: Global distribution and volume of subsurface ice 48 3.2.1 Measurements to study the distribution of subsurface ice reservoirs (B) 50 3.3 Priority Science Area C: Vertical structure within ice reservoirs 51 3.3.1 Measurements to study the vertical structure of ice reservoirs (C) 53 3.4 Priority Science Area D: Formation conditions and processes for ice reservoir layers 57 3.4.1 Measurements to study the deposition of ice and formation of layers (D) 58 3.5 Priority Science Area E: Potential evidence of liquid water 59 3.5.1 Measurements to check for and interpret evidence of liquid water (E) 61 3.6 Relationship of Priority Science Areas to Astrobiology 62 Pre-decisional information, for planning and discussion only 2 ICE-SAG Final Report, 08 July 2019 3.7 Relationship of Priority Science Areas to Human Exploration Interests 64 3.8 Tracing to MEPAG Goals 65 4 Mission Concepts to Address Key Ice and Climate Science Questions 69 4.1 Concept NF1: Lander to investigate the detailed structure of the north polar layers and their present environment 71 4.1.1. Concept Overview 71 4.1.2. Science Questions Addressed 71 4.1.3. Measurements and Conceptual Instrument Suite 72 4.1.4. Key Technical or Science Challenges 72 4.1.5. Alternative Implementations 73 4.2 Concept NF2: In situ observations of the seasonal frost layer, as it evolves 77 4.2.1. Concept Overview 77 4.2.2. Science Questions Addressed 77 4.2.3. Measurements and Conceptual Instrument Suite 78 4.2.4. Key Technical or Science Challenges 78 4.2.5. Alternative Implementations 79 4.3 Concept NF3: Investigation of present-day meteorology from orbit and the ground 81 4.3.1. Concept Overview 81 4.3.2. Science Questions Addressed 82 4.3.3. Measurements and Conceptual Instrument Suite 83 4.3.4. Key Technical or Science Challenges 84 4.3.5. Alternative Implementations 85 4.4 Concept NF4: Investigate vertical structure of mid-latitude ice 90 4.4.1. Concept Overview 90 4.4.2. Science Questions Addressed 90 4.4.3. Measurements and Conceptual Instrument Suite 91 4.4.4. Key Technical or Science Challenges 92 4.4.5. Alternative Implementations 93 4.5 Concept NF5: Map the distribution, structure, and activity of near-surface ice 97 4.5.1. Concept Overview 97 4.5.2. Science Questions Addressed 97 4.5.3. Measurements and Conceptual Instrument Suite 98 4.5.4. Key Technical or Science Challenges 98 4.5.5. Alternative Implementations 99 4.6 Concept SS1: Small Landers for Gully and RSL Locations 101 Pre-decisional information, for planning and discussion only 3 ICE-SAG Final Report, 08 July 2019 4.7 Concept SS2: Small Spacecraft for In Situ Investigation of the NPRC and Atmosphere 102 4.8 Concept SS3: Small Spacecraft for Atmospheric Characterization 102 5 Key technological challenges and constraints on Ice and Climate focused Mars missions 104 5.1 Surviving and observing through the polar night 104 5.2 Surviving polar night in mid-latitudes 105 5.3 Surface contamination concerns 106 5.4 Landing on the poles during specific times of year 107 5.5 Accessing the Subsurface 108 5.6 Lower-cost Access to the Martian Surface 110 6 Key complementary studies for Ice and Climate focused Mars missions 112 6.1 Laboratory Investigation of Material Properties of CO2 Ice & Surface Mixtures 112 6.2 Laboratory Investigation of Water Transfer Through and Interaction with Regolith 114 6.3 Models of Radiative Balance and Climate Cycles 115 6.4 Field analog work to support investigation of Martian ice layers 117 7. Conclusion 118 8. Acknowledgements 120 Appendix A: ICE-SAG Charter 121 Appendix B: Other Contributors 124 Appendix C: Full list of Ice and Recent Climate Science Questions considered within ICE-SAG 125 Appendix D: Specific MEPAG Goals connected to ICE-SAG Priority Science Areas 126 Appendix E: Acronym List 130 Appendix F: References 133 Pre-decisional information, for planning and discussion only 4 ICE-SAG Final Report, 08 July 2019 Figure # / § Short title 1.1 / 1.2 ICE-SAG schedule 2.1 / 2 Stratigraphy of polar caps on Mars and Earth 2.2 / 2.1.1 Radar image of layers in cap 2.3 / 2.1.1 Visible images of NPRC surface 2.4 / 2.1.3 Map of suspected subsurface ice deposits 2.5 / 2.2.1 Evidence of historical water reservoirs on Mars 2.6 / 2.2.2 Example of laboratory experiment of deliquescence 2.7 / 2.3.2 Observation of Martian clouds by Phoenix 2.8 / 2.4.2 Microscopic images of four different textures of CO2 ice 2.9 / 2.4.3 Examples of active surface features observed by HiRISE 3.1 / 3.2 Traceability from the ICE-SAG main question to the Priority Science Areas 3.2 / 3.2.1 Example of dust being lofted high from the surface 3.3 / 3.2.2 Medusae Fossae Formation 3.4 / 3.2.3 Layers within mid-latitude ice scarp 3.5 / 3.2.4 Example of what the Martian recent climate record may look like 3.6 / 3.2.5 Scalloped depressions in Utopia Planitia 3.7 / 3.3 Examples of terrestrial life in ice environments 4.1 / 4.1.3 Schematic of bistatic radar rover/lander concept 5.1 / 5.1 Phoenix spacecraft’s broken solar panels 5.2 / 5.4 Landing accessibility in high-latitudes regions as a function of time-of- year 5.3 / 5.5 ExoMars Schiaparelli and its drill 5.4 / 5.5 Schematic illustrations of drill concepts Pre-decisional information, for planning and discussion only 5 ICE-SAG Final Report, 08 July 2019 Table # / § Short title ES.1 / ES ICE-SAG Findings 3.1 / 3.1 Summary of High Priority Science Questions under Priority Area A 3.2 / 3.1.1 Summary of Measurements under Priority Science Area A 3.3 / 3.2 Summary of High-priority Questions under Priority Science Area B 3.4 / 3.2.1 Summary of Measurements under Priority Science Area B 3.5 / 3.3 Summary of High-priority Questions under Priority Science Area C 3.6 / 3.3.1 Summary of Measurements under Priority Science Area C 3.7 / 3.4 Summary of High-priority Questions under Priority Science Area D 3.8 / 3.4.1 Summary of Measurements under Priority Science Area D 3.9 / 3.5 Summary of High-priority Questions under Priority Science Area E 3.10 / 3.5.1 Summary of Measurements under Priority Science Area E 3.11 / 3.8 Traceability between Priority Science Areas and MEPAG Goals 4.1 / 4.1.5 Science tracing to notional payload for Concept NF1: Lander to investigate detailed structure/composition of NPLD 4.2 / 4.2.5 Science tracing to notional payload for Concept NF2: In situ
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