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PROCEEDINGS OF THE ARCTIC SYSTEM SCIENCE PROGRAM ALL-HANDS WORKSHOP FEBRUARY 20–23 2002 SEATTLE, WASHINGTON Preface Proceedings of the ARCSS All-Hands Workshop 20–23 February 2002 iii Proceedings of the Arctic System Science Program All-Hands Workshop 2002 This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under Cooperative Agreement # OPP 0101279. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recom- mendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the NSF. In memory of Karoline Frey 30 March 1974 – 24 March 2002 Karo, an ARCSS-funded Geophysics graduate student at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, died in a climbing accident in the Alaska Range shortly after the ARCSS All-Hands Workshop. Table of Contents Proceedings of the This publication may be cited as: ARCSS All-Hands Workshop, 20–23 February 2002 ARCSS Program. 2003. Proceedings of the Arctic System Science Program All-Hands Workshop 2002. Fairbanks, Alaska: Arctic Research Consortium of the United States. 271 pp. Table of Contents Preface iii Executive Summary 1 Introduction 7 Summaries of Recommendations from Workshop: Pan-Arctic Community-wide Hydrological Analysis and Monitoring Program (Arctic-CHAMP) 9 Modes of Variability 13 Land-Shelf Initiative (LSI) 17 Pan-Arctic Cycles, Transitions, and Sustainability (PACTS) 19 Summary of Student Recommendations 23 Contributions from Current ARCSS Research: Paleoenvironmental Arctic Sciences (PARCS) 25 Human Dimensions of the Arctic System (HARC) 27 Invited Presentation Abstracts 31 Poster abstracts 47 Workshop Agenda 233 Workshop Participants 241 Author Index 267 Table of Contents Proceedings of the ARCSS All-Hands Workshop, 20–23 February 2002 Executive Summary Proceedings of the ARCSS All-Hands Workshop 20–23 February 2002 1 Preface ARCSS is at another critical point in its evolution. Behind us is a wealth of innovative research that has gone a long way to describe and understand how key parts of the arctic system work, and also how the arctic environment is changing in dramatic ways. We also have begun to heighten public awareness of arctic environmental change and its unprecedented nature. And we have concluded that there is now little doubt that arctic environmental variability and change will continue to affect people and societies more and more into the future. The impacts will be felt most at high latitudes, but the implications of arctic change will extend around the globe. The challenge to ARCSS is to make the transition to a program that provides an ever more useful scientific basis for decision making. The target audience includes policy makers but also extends to all those who live or work in the Arctic, as well as to those who interact with some aspect of the global system that is influenced by the Arctic. To meet this challenge, ARCSS must continue to break down disciplinary boundaries, to understand the wealth of interconnected processes that underlie arctic system dynamics, and ultimately, to provide integrated knowledge that can be drawn on for decision support. ARCSS must also increasingly exploit international and programmatic linkages, and in doing so expand efforts to look at the interconnectivity of the entire arctic within the context of the whole earth system. The arctic environment is changing as fast as any on Earth, and it could, though its myriad physical and biogeochemical feedbacks, be the harbinger of change for the entire planet. The researchers who are ARCSS, whether experienced veterans or hardworking students, will make the next phase of arctic research the most productive yet. This report highlights many of the most compelling ideas for this next phase, and augurs well for the future of an ARCSS that will continue to lead in the study of integrated environmental systems, variability and change, and also the development of knowledge that is readily of use to society. Jonathan Overpeck Chair, ARCSS Committee Preface Proceedings of the ARCSS All-Hands Workshop 20–23 February 2002 iii Executive Summary The Arctic is a complex, tightly coupled system. Research funded through the National Science Foundation’s Arctic System Science (ARCSS) Program is diverse and has a thematic rather than disciplinary approach to scientific investigation. In our quest to understand the Arctic as a system, we face the challenging task of further integrating and coordinating research, both within the U.S. and across the global community. During the six years since the 1996 All-Hands Workshop, the ARCSS research community has moved toward a theme-based, integrated, and interdisciplinary approach to studying the arctic system. The 1998 ARCSS science plan, Toward Prediction of the Arctic System, introduced five broad thematic questions arising from the need for more integrative research. At the 2002 ARCSS All-Hands Workshop, there was a broad consensus to continue highly integrated research efforts and to coordinate ARCSS research around science-driven questions and research initiatives, rather than through the existing disciplinary components. This summary introduces three science questions based on the initial five, and a summary of the currently active or planned research initiatives. ARCSS Questions The following thematic questions, which have progressed from the questions presented in the 1998 ARCSS science plan, provide a scientific basis for organizing ARCSS Program research. These questions arose from ongoing arctic research and new findings, as well as planning discussions within the research community. An important assumption underlying these questions is that many changes in the global climate system affect the arctic system. Changes in the Arctic may, in turn, feed back on the globe, since we are dealing with an open system in many respects. I. How do human activities interact with changes in the Arctic to affect the sustainability of ecosystems and societies? A fundamental premise of the ARCSS Program is that global climate change creates changes in the arctic system. Since human activities in the Arctic depend closely upon the environment, arctic residents and resource developers are susceptible to arctic change and are capable of contributing significantly to it. Human activity within the region, such as large-scale oil Executive Summary development, alteration of fire regimes, or redirection of freshwater flow to the Arctic Basin, combined with natural variability in the system, are likely to Proceedings of the have far-reaching and complex effects. For example, a reduction of permafrost, ARCSS All-Hands Workshop which can result from both human development and a warming climate, has 20–23 February 2002 1 significant implications for arctic engineering and development but also can have far-reaching affects on global biogeochemistry and hydrology. Warming temperatures also reduce the extent, thickness, and duration of sea ice, which, on a regional scale, can result in arctic coastal communities being more susceptible to powerful storms and erosion. On a global scale, reduced sea ice can result in rising sea levels, a freshening of the oceans, and changes to world ocean currents. Arctic communities and resource developers are confronted with the challenge of creating sustainable adaptations to these conditions that take into account not only current change, but projected future change. Research focused on human interactions with changes in the Arctic can contribute to an understanding of future arctic climate conditions and current ecosystem stressors and will help fulfill one of the fundamental missions of the ARCSS Program: to advance the scientific basis for formulating policy options in response to the anticipated impacts of global changes on human beings and societal support systems. Research that will address this question includes the emerging Land-Shelf Initiative (LSI); Pan-Arctic Cycling, Transitions, and Sustainability (PACTS) initiative; and the existing Human Dimensions of the Arctic System (HARC) program. This is also an area where ARCSS-funded research interfaces with the NSF-wide Biocomplexity in the Environment program. II. What are the limits of arctic system predictability? Recent improvements in technology, support, and access to the Arctic have allowed scientists to collect data indicating changes to the arctic climate over the last half-century that have no precedent, at least over the previous three centuries. These detected changes have important repercussions to science and society, yet it is not clear whether they are the result of natural variability in the arctic system, of human actions, or of a coupling of anthropogenic and natural forcings. Predicting the extent and probable outcomes of these changes is a formidable challenge. Research that contributes to improved predictability includes paleoenvironmental studies, which use proxy indicators to reconstruct and understand past climate change; modern process studies, which use experiments and simulations to understand mechanisms affecting the operation and response of a system; and observational studies, which rely on extensive observational networks to gather large amounts of data that provide an essential foundation for arctic research. Climate models have been improved by all of these types of research. The extent to which changes can be predicted, however, remains unknown. For example, observational data suggest that warmer Atlantic waters are penetrating farther into the Arctic Ocean, which has significant ramifications for
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