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Disruptive Technologies with Applications in Airline 7. Failure of Climate Change [Nichols] “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed – and hence clamorous to be led to safety – by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins[1], all of them imaginary.” – L. Mencken(Wrightstone G. , 2017) Student Learning Objectives Man-made / Influenced Catastrophic climate change (CC) and global warming (GW) are contentious issues hyped in the news and parroted with almost a religious following. It is time to at least understand the basic scientific elements that make up the climate change claims and real natural phenomena and driving forces. It some cases, we need to push back against the outrageous and irresponsible. Our SLO is • To understand the CC / GW processes, • To separate facts from fiction regarding key natural phenomena: CO2 emissions, warming, temperature rise, tornadoes, hurricanes, forest fires, greenhouse gases (GHG), • To develop facts that we can use to make up our own minds about CC / GW and its correlation to man-made behavior – especial in the last 50 years. Introduction Amy Coney Barrett declined to say that climate change is real, calling it instead a “a very contentious matter of public debate, especially one that is politically controversial.” during the third day of her Supreme Court confirmation hearings. (Boyle, 2020)[3] The judge made the comment on Wednesday as she was questioned by Failure of Climate Change [Nichols] | 313 California Senator Kamala Harris, the Democratic vice-presidential nominee, (now VP) and a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee. The Supreme court nominee doubled down on comments she made on Tuesday, where she said that she has no “firm views” on climate change because she is “not a scientist”. [4] (Boyle, 2020) According to the UK Independent (Bolton, 2016), “Some 97 percent or more of climate scientists agree that climate-warming trends over the past century are being driven by human activities, largely the burning fossil fuels.” Maybe. The purpose of this chapter is to develop a point – counterpoint discussion of fundamental concepts underlying climate change / global warming (GW). If we accept climate change as a disruptive technology or clear global megatrend, it behooves us to at least know the facts. The Open Mind Let’s take a step back for a moment and recognize four key concepts: 1) science is not accomplished by consensus – just the opposite; scientists constantly challenge the status quo to improve understanding of our world; 2) since 1785, scientists have used a very organized methodology to continually test the validity / repeatability of the status quo by the Scientific Method. It is based on fact and quantifiable observations, not on political motivation, or money (university or private funding) or hyped up news; 3) humans do not control / influence everything in their world – it is arrogant to think so; and 4) data based on limited or biased scope yields limited / incorrect / spurious / or potentially fraudulent results. Policy decisions made on such reduced data / observations are bound to be incorrect. This chapter is not meant for those who have made up their minds and will never challenge themselves or change – irrespective of political organization. It is meant for those who are uncomfortable 314 | Failure of Climate Change [Nichols] with the information that we are barraged with each day and at are least open to discussion so that they can make up their own minds. The author will concentrate heavily on two important and diametrically opposing references with widespread appeal. Pierre Coutu wrote Global Megatrends and Aviation: The Path to Future- Wise Organizations. (Coutu, 2019) He devotes a full 77 pages to the subject of climate change. His book is the status quo. The second reference is by Gregory Wrightstone entitled Inconvenient Facts: The science that Al Gore doesn’t want you to know. (Wrightstone G. , 2017) It is packed with facts and counterpoints, 2000 years of reference temperature data, and exquisitely sourced for each observation. Science, unlike religion or politics, is not a belief system. Science is based on a disciplined method of inquiry, by which a scientist applies pre-existing theory to observation and measurement, so as to develop or reject a theory, so as to unravel as clearly and as certainly as possible the distinction between “that which is and that which is not.” (Wrightstone G. , 2017) Scientific Method The scientific method is an empirical method of acquiring knowledge that has characterized the development of science since at least the 17th century.[5] It involves careful observation, applying rigorous skepticism about what is observed, given that cognitive assumptions can distort how one interprets the observation. It involves formulating hypotheses, via induction, based on such observations; experimental and measurement-based testing of deductions drawn from the hypotheses; and refinement (or elimination) of the hypotheses based on the experimental findings. These are principles of the scientific method, as distinguished from a definitive series of steps applicable to all scientific enterprises.[6] (Wikipedia, Scientific Method, 2020) Although procedures vary from one field of inquiry to another, they are frequently the same from one to another. The process Failure of Climate Change [Nichols] | 315 of the scientific method involves making conjectures (hypotheses), deriving predictions from them as logical consequences, and then carrying out experiments or empirical observations based on those predictions. A hypothesis is a conjecture, based on knowledge obtained while seeking answers to the question. The hypothesis might be very specific, or it might be broad. Scientists then test hypotheses by conducting experiments or studies. A scientific hypothesis must be falsifiable, implying that it is possible to identify a possible outcome of an experiment or observation that conflicts with predictions deduced from the hypothesis; otherwise, the hypothesis cannot be meaningfully tested. (Wikipedia, Scientific Method, 2020) The purpose of an experiment is to determine whether observations agree with or conflict with the predictions derived from a hypothesis. Experiments can take place anywhere. There are difficulties in a formulaic statement of method, however. Though the scientific method is often presented as a fixed sequence of steps, it represents rather a set of general principles. Common steps /elements of the scientific method are: Question, Hypothesis, Prediction, Experiment, and Analysis. There are additional components to the scientific method even when all iterations of the steps above have been completed. Replication If an experiment cannot be repeated to produce the same results, this implies that the original results might have been in error. As a result, it is common for a single experiment to be performed multiple times, especially when there are uncontrolled variables or other indications of experimental error. For significant or surprising results, other scientists may also attempt to replicate the results for themselves, especially if those results would be important to their own work. Replication has become a contentious issue in social and biomedical science where treatments are administered to groups of individuals. (Wikipedia, Scientific Method, 2020) External review 316 | Failure of Climate Change [Nichols] The process of peer review involves evaluation of the experiment by experts, who typically give their opinions anonymously. Some journals request that the experimenter provide lists of possible peer reviewers, especially if the field is highly specialized. Peer-review does not certify the correctness of the results, only that, in the opinion of the reviewer, the experiments themselves were sound (based on the description supplied by the experimenter). If the work passes peer review, which occasionally may require new experiments requested by the reviewers, it will be published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal. The specific journal that publishes the results indicates the perceived quality of the work. (Wikipedia, Scientific Method, 2020) Scientific Inquiry Scientific inquiry generally aims to obtain knowledge in the form of testable explanations that scientists can use to predict the results of future experiments. This allows scientists to gain a better understanding of the topic under study, and later to use that understanding to intervene in its causal mechanisms (such as to cure disease). The better an explanation is at making predictions, the more useful it frequently can be, and the more likely it will continue to explain a body of evidence better than its alternatives. The most successful explanations – those which explain and make accurate predictions in a wide range of circumstances – are often called scientific theories. (Wikipedia, Scientific Method, 2020) Most experimental results do not produce large changes in human understanding. Improvements in theoretical scientific understanding typically result from a gradual process of development over time, sometimes across different domains of science. Scientific models vary in the extent to which they have been experimentally tested and for how long, and in their acceptance in the scientific community. In general, explanations become accepted over time as evidence accumulates on a given topic, and the explanation in question proves more powerful than Failure of Climate Change [Nichols] | 317 its alternatives at explaining the evidence. Often subsequent researchers re-formulate
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