Science Studies, Climate Change and the Prospects for Constructivist Critique
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Climate Change: Examining the Processes Used to Create Science and Policy, Hearing
CLIMATE CHANGE: EXAMINING THE PROCESSES USED TO CREATE SCIENCE AND POLICY HEARING BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED TWELFTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION THURSDAY, MARCH 31, 2011 Serial No. 112–09 Printed for the use of the Committee on Science, Space, and Technology ( Available via the World Wide Web: http://science.house.gov U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 65–306PDF WASHINGTON : 2011 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512–1800; DC area (202) 512–1800 Fax: (202) 512–2104 Mail: Stop IDCC, Washington, DC 20402–0001 COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY HON. RALPH M. HALL, Texas, Chair F. JAMES SENSENBRENNER, JR., EDDIE BERNICE JOHNSON, Texas Wisconsin JERRY F. COSTELLO, Illinois LAMAR S. SMITH, Texas LYNN C. WOOLSEY, California DANA ROHRABACHER, California ZOE LOFGREN, California ROSCOE G. BARTLETT, Maryland DAVID WU, Oregon FRANK D. LUCAS, Oklahoma BRAD MILLER, North Carolina JUDY BIGGERT, Illinois DANIEL LIPINSKI, Illinois W. TODD AKIN, Missouri GABRIELLE GIFFORDS, Arizona RANDY NEUGEBAUER, Texas DONNA F. EDWARDS, Maryland MICHAEL T. MCCAUL, Texas MARCIA L. FUDGE, Ohio PAUL C. BROUN, Georgia BEN R. LUJA´ N, New Mexico SANDY ADAMS, Florida PAUL D. TONKO, New York BENJAMIN QUAYLE, Arizona JERRY MCNERNEY, California CHARLES J. ‘‘CHUCK’’ FLEISCHMANN, JOHN P. SARBANES, Maryland Tennessee TERRI A. SEWELL, Alabama E. SCOTT RIGELL, Virginia FREDERICA S. WILSON, Florida STEVEN M. PALAZZO, Mississippi HANSEN CLARKE, Michigan MO BROOKS, Alabama ANDY HARRIS, Maryland RANDY HULTGREN, Illinois CHIP CRAVAACK, Minnesota LARRY BUCSHON, Indiana DAN BENISHEK, Michigan VACANCY (II) C O N T E N T S Thursday, March 31, 2011 Page Witness List ............................................................................................................ -
By Communicating the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change and Countering Misinformation
Closing the “consensus gap” by communicating the scientific consensus on climate change and countering misinformation John Cook Bachelor of Science (Honours in Physics) This thesis is presented for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy of The University of Western Australia School of Psychology 2016 CLOSING THE CONSENSUS GAP Abstract There is a consensus among climate scientists that humans are causing global warming. However, the general public think there is significant scientific disagreement about human-caused global warming. This misconception, and in particular the difference between expert and public opinion—the “consensus gap”—has societal consequences, as perceived consensus is a gateway belief influencing a range of climate attitudes including policy support. One contributor to the consensus gap is misinformation, which is designed to manufacture doubt about the level of scientific agreement on anthropogenic global warming (AGW). This multi-paper thesis explores the psychology of consensus, testing experimentally the effect of consensus information and conversely, the influence of misinformation designed to cast doubt on the consensus. I found that overall, consensus information is effective in increasing acceptance of AGW. However, among a small proportion of the public with strong conservative beliefs, the provision of consensus information can be counterproductive; this could contribute to the persistence of the rejection of climate science. I also found that an effective approach to neutralising the influence of misinformation is inoculation against misinformation techniques. As well as conduct research into the psychology of consensus, this thesis documents my efforts to summarise and communicate the body of research into misinformation and consensus, encouraging more evidence-based science communication. -
Transcript of the Same
COMMONWEALTH OF PENNSYLVANIA HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES AND ENERGY COMMITTEE "PENNSYLVANIA CO2 AND CLIMATE" ROOM 523 IRVIS OFFICE BUILDING TUESDAY, JUNE 22, 2021 9:03 A.M. BEFORE: HONORABLE DARYL METCALFE, MAJORITY CHAIRMAN HONORABLE GREG VITALI, MINORITY CHAIRMAN HONORABLE MIKE ARMANINI HONORABLE STEPHANIE BOROWICZ HONORABLE DONALD COOK HONORABLE JOSEPH HAMM HONORABLE R. LEE JAMES HONORABLE JOSHUA KAIL HONORABLE TIMOTHY O'NEAL HONORABLE JASON ORTITAY HONORABLE KATHY RAPP HONORABLE TOMMY SANKEY HONORABLE PAUL SCHEMEL HONORABLE PERRY STAMBAUGH HONORABLE ELIZABETH FIEDLER HONORABLE MANUEL GUZMAN HONORABLE JOE HOHENSTEIN HONORABLE MARY ISAACSON HONORABLE RICK KRAJEWSKI HONORABLE DANIELLE FRIEL OTTEN HONORABLE PAM SNYDER Pennsylvania House of Representatives Commonwealth of Pennsylvania 2 1 COMMITTEE STAFF PRESENT: 2 GRIFFIN CARUSO 3 REPUBLICAN RESEARCH ANALYST ALEX SLOAD 4 REPUBLICAN RESEARCH ANALYST PAM NEUGARD 5 REPUBLICAN ADMINISTRATIVE ASSISTANT 6 SARAH IVERSEN 7 DEMOCRATIC EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR BILL JORDAN 8 DEMOCRATIC RESEARCH ANALYST 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 3 1 I N D E X 2 TESTIFIERS 3 * * * 4 GREG WRIGHTSTONE EXECUTIVE ASSISTANT, 5 CO2 COALITION..................................6 6 DR. DAVID LEGATES PROFESSOR OF CLIMATOLOGY 7 UNIVERSITY OF DELAWARE........................15 8 ANDREW MCKEON EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, 9 RGGI, INC.....................................30 10 MARK SZYBIST, ESQ. SENIOR ATTORNEY, 11 NATURAL RESOURCES DEFENSE COUNCIL.............38 12 FRANZ T. LITZ LITZ ENERGY STRATEGIES LLC....................45 13 DR. PATRICK MICHAELS 14 CLIMATOLOGIST, SENIOR FELLOW, CO2 COALITION.................................69 15 MARC MORANO 16 EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, CLIMATE DEPOT.................................76 17 JOE BASTARDI 18 CHIEF FORECASTER WEATHERBELL ANALYTICS, LLC....................90 19 20 21 SUBMITTED WRITTEN TESTIMONY 22 * * * 23 (See submitted written testimony and handouts online.) 24 25 4 1 P R O C E E D I N G S 2 * * * 3 MAJORITY CHAIRMAN METCALFE: Good 4 morning. -
Do Small-Sample Short-Term Forecasting Tests Yield Valid
Forecasting global climate change Kesten C. Green University of South Australia and Ehrenberg-Bass Institute, Australia J. Scott Armstrong University of Pennsylvania, U.S.A, and Ehrenberg-Bass Institute, Australia Working Paper - June 2014 This paper was published in Climate Change: The Facts. edited by Alan Moran published by the Institute of Public Affairs, Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia Abstract The Golden Rule of Forecasting requires that forecasters be conservative by making proper use of cumulative knowledge and by not going beyond that knowledge. The procedures that have been used to forecast dangerous manmade global warming violate the Golden Rule. Following the scientific method, we investigated competing hypotheses on climate change in an objective way. To do this, we tested the predictive validity of the global warming hypothesis (+0.03C per year with increasing CO2) against a relatively conservative global cooling hypothesis of -0.01C per year, and against the even more conservative simple no-change or persistence hypothesis (0.0C per year). The errors of forecasts from the global warming hypothesis for horizons 11 to 100 years ahead over the period 1851 to 1975 were nearly four times larger than those from the global cooling hypothesis and about eight times larger than those from the persistence hypothesis. Findings from our tests using the latest data and other data covering a period of nearly 2,000 years support the predictive validity of the persistence hypothesis for horizons from one year to centuries ahead. To investigate whether the current alarm over global temperatures is exceptional, we employed the method of structured analogies. -
Merchants-Of-Doubt-Assignments.Pdf
Discussion Guide: https://urbauerlab.uga.edu/fyo/pdfs/merchants-of-doubt-discussion-guide.pdf Background reading: -Tobacco Master Settlement Agreement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tobacco_Master_Settlement_Agreement -New York Times review of “Merchants of Doubt” https://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/06/movies/review-merchants-of-doubt- separating-science-from-spin.html? -Think Progress interview with Robert Kenner https://thinkprogress.org/professional-deceivers-people-who-can-convince-you-a- garbage-man-knows-more-science-than-a-nasa-phd-33a6fece3825/ 2017 Report on Climate Change: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/07/government-document-directly-contradicts- trump-on-climate-change-report-says.html https://insideclimatenews.org/news/09082017/climate-change-science-report- leaked-truth https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/08/07/climate/document-Draft-of- the-Climate-Science-Special-Report.html? https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/07/climate/climate-change-drastic-warming- trump.html? https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/3920195/Final-Draft-of-the- Climate-Science-Special-Report.pdf A bit (a few sentences) of background, how this person/entity fit into the movie, and then how this person/entity contributed to (or battled against) a “war on science” Explain how/why each of the following people/entities constitute or contribute in some way to a “war on science” 1. The Oregon Petition () https://www.desmogblog.com/oregon-petition https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_Petition https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Oregon_Petition http://www.snopes.com/30000-scientists-reject-climate-change/ -
The Paper That Blew It Up
This post was published to Andy May Petrophysicist at 3:01:27 PM 11/13/2020 The Paper that Blew it Up By Andy May “If you can’t dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with Bull…” W. C. Fields In late February 2015, Willie Soon was accused in a front-page New York Times article by Kert Davies (Gillis & Schwartz, 2015) of failing to disclose conflicts of interest in his academic journal articles. It isn’t mentioned in the Gillis and Schwartz article, but the timing suggests that a Science Bulletin article, “Why Models run hot: results from an irreducibly simple climate model” (Monckton, Soon, Legates, & Briggs, 2015) was Davies’ concern. We will abbreviate this paper as MSLB15. Besides Soon, the other authors of the paper are Christopher Monckton (senior author, Lord Monckton, Viscount of Brenchley), David Legates (Professor of Geography and Climatology, University of Delaware), and William Briggs (Mathematician and statistician, former professor of statistics at Cornell Medical School). In the January 2015 article, the authors “declare that they have no conflict of interest.” MSLB15 was instantly popular and devastating to the climate alarmist cause and to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2013). The IPCC is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a research organization set up by the United Nations in 1988. MSLB15 was published online January 8, 2015 and downloaded 22,000 times in less than two months, an outstanding number of downloads. The New York Times article appeared less than two months after MSLB15 hit the internet, it was a “fake news hit job.” The paper caused a stir because it explained that the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report or “AR5” reduced its near-term warming projections substantially, but left its long-term, higher, projections alone. -
Climate Skepticism
CLIMATE CHANGE DENIAL AND THE CULTURE OF SCIENTIFIC SKEPTICISM The Nation NASA USDoS Kira Clingen Harvard Energy Journal Club October 6, 2017 PRESENTATION STRUCTURE 1. Terminology 2. James Hansen, Congress, and the American public 3. Types of Deniers 4. Types of Denial Arguments 5. Postmodernism, Public Opinion and Perception 6. Scientific Skepticism SKEPTICISM OR DENIAL – OR BULVERISM? MisterDavidC: Flickr Creative Commons SKEPTICISM • Skepticism: seeking truth within the realization that the world is a complex place • Apply critical faculties to both sides of an argument • Admit uncertainties • Risk management may require appropriate responses regardless of uncertainties (skepticism) Team Kweeper via Flickr Creative Commons Adapted from Pittock, A.B. (2009) Climate Change: The Science, Impacts and solutions, CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne, Australia DENIAL • Denial: Refusal to believe something no matter the evidence • Demonstrate ‘willful ignorance’ and use logical fallacies to maintain unshakeable beliefs Marc via Flickr Creative Commons Adapted from Washington, H. and J. Cook. (2011) Climate Change Denial – Heads in the Sand. Routeledge, New York, New York. BULVERISM • Bulverism: avoids need to prove that someone is wrong by first assuming they are wrong, then explaining why they hold their (wrong) view Hamilton, C. (2010) Requiem for a Species: Why We Resist the Truth About Climate Change, Allen and Unwin, Sydney, Australia JAMES HANSEN AND THE AMERICAN PUBLIC • Testified to Congress in 1988 • First time lead scientist shared connection between human activities, atmospheric pollutants and warming climate • Brought anthropogenic climate change from a purely scientific realm to public sphere • 1998 79% of American public believed in anthropogenic climate change • Inaccuracy in model touted by climate change deniers Hansen, J. -
Satirical Comedy Corrects Climate Change Disinformation
Michigan Technological University Digital Commons @ Michigan Tech Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports 2020 “YOU DON’T NEED PEOPLE’S OPINIONS ON A FACT!”: SATIRICAL COMEDY CORRECTS CLIMATE CHANGE DISINFORMATION Shelly A. Galliah Michigan Technological University, [email protected] Copyright 2020 Shelly A. Galliah Recommended Citation Galliah, Shelly A., "“YOU DON’T NEED PEOPLE’S OPINIONS ON A FACT!”: SATIRICAL COMEDY CORRECTS CLIMATE CHANGE DISINFORMATION", Open Access Dissertation, Michigan Technological University, 2020. https://doi.org/10.37099/mtu.dc.etdr/1022 Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.mtu.edu/etdr Part of the American Popular Culture Commons, Digital Humanities Commons, Other Arts and Humanities Commons, Other Film and Media Studies Commons, and the Television Commons “YOU DON’T NEED PEOPLE’S OPINIONS ON A FACT!”: SATIRICAL COMEDY CORRECTS CLIMATE CHANGE DISINFORMATION By Shelly A. Galliah A DISSERTATION Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY In Rhetoric, Theory and Culture MICHIGAN TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY 2020 © 2020 Shelly A. Galliah This dissertation has been approved in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in Rhetoric, Theory and Culture. Department of Humanities Dissertation Advisor: Dr. Sue Collins Committee Member: Dr. Andrew Fiss Committee Member: Dr. Patricia Sotirin Committee Member: Dr. Joseph Reagle Department Chair: Dr. Patricia Sotirin Table of Contents Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................... -
Avoiding Carbon Myopia: Three Considerations for Policy Makers Concerning Manmade Carbon Dioxide
Avoiding Carbon Myopia: Three Considerations for Policy Makers Concerning Manmade Carbon Dioxide Willie Soon* and David R. Legates** TOWARDS A GLOBAL CARBON REGULATORY TRADING SCHEME In December 2009, lawmakers and representatives from around the world, along with scientists, numerous journalists, and various celebrities flew to Copenhagen, Denmark. For the most part, their goal was to promote a regulatory scheme aimed at controlling human carbon emissions by declaring the element a tradable commodity and establishing laws and regulations to govern the trade. The proposed regulations were premised on the flawed notion, articulated by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),1 that increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations will change climate dramatically and thereby cause major ecological and economic damage. While many scientists, including us, have observed some changes in climate, the hypothesized dangerous consequences of rising atmospheric CO2 are too speculative for responsible regulatory policy. In analyzing climate policy, decision makers should be cognizant of three key considerations regarding the impact of projected rises in atmospheric CO2: (1) policy choices likely will have no measurable effect on the occurrence of severe weather; (2) positive effects on ecosystems and biodiversity are likely and should be weighed against the negatives; and (3) carbon trading schemes (such as the one touted in Copenhagen) are unlikely to lead to a reduction in atmospheric CO2. * Dr. Soon is an astrophysicist at the Solar, Stellar and Planetary Sciences Division of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. Dr. Soon has written and lectured extensively on issues related to the sun and other stars and climate. -
Speakers at the 2009 International Conference on Climate Change
12/10/2015 The Heartland Institute - Confirmed Speakers at the 2009 International Conference on Climate Change speakers last updated: March 5, 2009 The complete program for the 2009 International Conference on Climate Change, including cosponsor information and brief biographies of all speakers, can be downloaded in Adobe's PDF format here. More than 70 of the world’s elite scientists, economists and others specializing in climate issues will confront the subject of global warming at the second annual International Conference on Climate Change March 810, 2009 in New York City. They will call attention to new research that contradicts claims that Earth’s moderate warming during the twentieth century primarily was manmade and has reached crisis proportions. Headliners among the 70plus presenters will be: American astronaut Dr. Jack Schmitt—the last living man to walk on the moon. William Gray, Colorado State University, leading researcher into tropical weather patterns. Richard Lindzen, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, one of the world’s leading experts in dynamic meteorology, especially planetary waves. Stephen McIntyre, primary author of Climate Audit, a blog devoted to the analysis and discussion of climate data. He is a devastating critic of the temperature record of the past 1,000 years, particularly the work of Michael E. Mann, creator of the infamous “hockey stick” graph. That graphthoroughly discredited in scientific circlessupposedly proved that mankind is responsible for a sharp increase in earth temperatures. Arthur Robinson, curator of a global warming petition signed by more than 32,000 American scientists, including more than 10,000 with doctorate degrees, rejecting the alarmist assertion that global warming has put the Earth in crisis and is caused primarily by mankind. -
South-Coast Report Happs Comments
A RESPONSE TO THE DRAFT DOCUMENT “South Coast Regional Sea-level Rise Planning and Policy Response Framework by Whitehead and Associates, July 2014” Prepared for the Eurobodalla Shire Council and Shoalhaven City Council. Primary council contacts: Norm Lenehan (ESC); and Isabelle Ghetti (SCC) I have read the above draft document and, whilst there are too many points of contention to be addressed here, I would like to focus on issues of concern regarding some questionable assumptions made and highly questionable sources of authority. It is perhaps appropriate that Whitehead and Associates state: “Limits to understanding climate change science, predicting future emissions and projecting future sea-level rise, mean that there is significant uncertainty and absolute predictions cannot be reliably made.” And: “However, there is presently no means to place robust numerical likelihoods on the rates of future sea-level rise.” I would firstly like to reflect on the following questionable statement from the draft document: “We note that there is genuine scepticism relating to the reality of climate change, but among scientists that have an established track record in climate science and directly related fields, this point of view is apparently only held by a small minority of suitably qualified professionals.” To say: “.. there is genuine scepticism relating to the reality of climate change,..” is a fatuous comment and I would challenge Whitehead and Associates to point out just one scientist who claims that the climate is not changing. Climate has always changed, sometimes slowly and sometimes rapidly. It is changing as you read this and will continue to change irrespective of what we do. -
A Climate Chronology Sharon S
Landscape of Change by Jill Pelto A Climate Chronology Sharon S. Tisher, J.D. School of Economics and Honors College University of Maine http://umaine.edu/soe/faculty-and-staff/tisher Copyright © 2021 All Rights Reserved Sharon S. Tisher Foreword to A Climate Chronology Dr. Sean Birkel, Research Assistant Professor & Maine State Climatologist Climate Change Institute School of Earth and Climate Sciences University of Maine March 12, 2021 The Industrial Revolution brought unprecedented innovation, manufacturing efficiency, and human progress, ultimately shaping the energy-intensive technological world that we live in today. But for all its merits, this transformation of human economies also set the stage for looming multi-generational environmental challenges associated with pollution, energy production from fossil fuels, and the development of nuclear weapons – all on a previously unimaginable global scale. More than a century of painstaking scientific research has shown that Earth’s atmosphere and oceans are warming as a result of human activity, primarily through the combustion of fossil fuels (e.g., oil, coal, and natural gas) with the attendant atmospheric emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and other * greenhouse gases. Emissions of co-pollutants, such as nitrogen oxides (NOx), toxic metals, and volatile organic compounds, also degrade air quality and cause adverse human health impacts. Warming from greenhouse-gas emissions is amplified through feedbacks associated with water vapor, snow and sea-ice