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Recommendation of Sea-Level Rise Planning Scenarios for Delaware

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Recommendation of Sea-Level Rise Planning Scenarios for Delaware Recommendation of Sea-Level Rise Planning Scenarios for Delaware Technical Report Prepared by: Delaware Sea-Level Rise Technical Committee Recommendation of Sea-Level Rise Planning Scenarios for Delaware: Technical Report November 2017 Developed by Delaware Sea-Level Rise Technical Committee Coordinated by the Delaware Geological Survey Prepared for and with support from DNREC Delaware Coastal Programs Acknowledgements Cover photography by Lisa Tossey/University of Delaware. Thank you to all members of the Delaware SLR Technical Committee for their participation and thoughtful feedback during this process. Thank you to Christina L. Callahan, Delaware Environmental Monitoring and Analysis Center (DEMAC), University of Delaware, and Doug Marcy, NOAA Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS) for reviewing sections of the technical manuscript. Additionally, thank you to Robert E. Kopp, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University, for providing general guidance and access to the numerical results for Delaware from his sea- level rise projection methodology. This report was prepared by: the Delaware Geological Survey, University of Delaware, using federal funds under award NA13NOS4190093 from the Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control, Delaware Coastal Programs and the Office for Coastal Management (OCM), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Department of Commerce. The statements findings, conclusions and recommendations are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the OCM, NOAA or the U.S. Department of Commerce. RECOMMENDATION OF SEA-LEVEL RISE PLANNING SCENARIOS FOR 2 DELAWARE -- NOVEMBER 2017 Recommendation of Sea-Level Rise Planning Scenarios for Delaware: Technical Report November 2017 Delaware SLR Technical Committee • John Callahan (chair), Research Scientist, Delaware Geological Survey, University of Delaware • David Wunsch, Director and Delaware State Geologist, Delaware Geological Survey, University of Delaware • Tom McKenna, Research Scientist, Delaware Geological Survey, University of Delaware • Daniel Leathers, Professor and Delaware State Climatologist, Department of Geography, University of Delaware • Robert Scarborough, Program Manager II, DNREC Delaware Coastal Programs • Danielle Swallow, Planner, DNREC Delaware Coastal Programs • Benjamin Horton, Professor, Sea Level Research, Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University and Earth Observatory of Singapore, Asian School of the Environment Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. • Daria Nikitina, Associate Professor, Department of Earth and Space Sciences, West Chester University • Holly Michael, Associate Professor and Unidel Fraser Russell Chair for the Environment, Department of Geological Sciences, University of Delaware • Christopher Sommerfield, Professor, School of Marine Science and Policy, Oceanography Program, University of Delaware • Jennifer Volk, Extension Specialist, Department of Plant and Soil Science, University of Delaware • Kim McKenna, Research Coordinator, DNREC Shoreline and Waterway Management • Mike Powell, Natural Hazards Program Manager, DNREC Division of Watershed Stewardship Recommended Citation Callahan, John A., Benjamin P. Horton, Daria L. Nikitina, Christopher K. Sommerfield, Thomas E. McKenna, and Danielle Swallow, 2017. Recommendation of Sea-Level Rise Planning Scenarios for Delaware: Technical Report, prepared for Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control (DNREC) Delaware Coastal Programs. 116 pp. RECOMMENDATION OF SEA-LEVEL RISE PLANNING SCENARIOS FOR 3 DELAWARE -- NOVEMBER 2017 Table of Contents List of Acronyms ............................................................................................................................................... 5 Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................................... 7 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 23 1.1 Effects of Sea-Level Rise in Delaware ................................................................................................... 24 1.2 Background on Sea-Level Rise Planning in Delaware ........................................................................... 28 1.3 SLR Planning Scenario Update and Purpose of this Document ........................................................... 32 2. Observations of Sea-Level Change ............................................................................................................. 37 2.1 Proxy Reconstructions of sea levels ..................................................................................................... 37 2.2 Tide Gauge Observations of SLR ........................................................................................................... 40 2.3 Satellite Altimetry of SLR ...................................................................................................................... 53 2.4 Effects of SLR on the Impacts of Coastal Flooding ............................................................................... 56 2.5 Effects of SLR on the Impacts of Groundwater .................................................................................... 59 3. Future Projections of 21st Century Sea-Level Rise ..................................................................................... 62 3.1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) ......................... 62 3.2 U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA) ............................................................................................. 66 3.3 U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ................................................................................................. 70 3.4 NOAA Report on Global and Regional SLR Scenarios for the United States ........................................ 72 3.5 Semi-Empirical Models (SEMs) ............................................................................................................. 76 3.6 Horton et al. (2014) - Expert Assessments ........................................................................................... 78 4. Recommendations of Delaware SLR Planning Scenarios ........................................................................... 81 4.1 Kopp et al. (2014) Probabilistic Projections ......................................................................................... 81 4.2 Delaware SLR Planning Scenario Recommendations ........................................................................... 85 4.3 Planning for Higher Levels of SLR ......................................................................................................... 94 4.4 General Guidance on Using Delaware SLR Planning Scenarios ............................................................ 96 5. Recommendation for Future Updates ...................................................................................................... 98 References ...................................................................................................................................................... 99 Appendix A. Executive Order 41 .................................................................................................................. 113 RECOMMENDATION OF SEA-LEVEL RISE PLANNING SCENARIOS FOR 4 DELAWARE -- NOVEMBER 2017 List of Acronyms AIS Antarctic Ice Sheet AMO Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation AMOC Atlantic Meridional Oceanic Circulation AO Arctic Oscillation CE/BCE Common Era/Before Common Era CMIP5 Coupled Modeled Intercomparison Project, 5th Phase CO-OPS Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, NOAA DEMA Delaware Emergency Management Agency DNREC Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control EAIS East Antarctic Ice Sheet ENSO El Niño-Southern Oscillation EPA Environmental Protection Agency FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency FIRM Flood Insurance Rate Map GIA Glacial Isostatic Adjustment GIS Greenland Ice Sheet GMSL/GMSLR Global mean sea level/Global mean sea-level rise GPS Global Positioning System IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ITCZ Intertropical Convergence Zone LGM Last Glacial Maximum LWS Land Water Storage MICI Marine Ice-Cliff Instability MISI Marine Ice-Sheet Instability MMSL Monthly mean sea level MSL Mean sea level RECOMMENDATION OF SEA-LEVEL RISE PLANNING SCENARIOS FOR 5 DELAWARE -- NOVEMBER 2017 NAO North Atlantic Oscillation NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NCA National Climate Assessment NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOC National Ocean Council NRC National Research Council NWLON National Water Level Observation Network, NOAA PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation PNA Pacific/North American (Oscillation) RCP Representative Concentration Pathway SLR Sea-level rise SLRAC Sea-Level Rise Advisory Committee SRES Special Report on Emission Scenarios RCP Representative Concentration Pathway RSL/RSLR Relative sea level/Relative sea-level rise USACE United States Army Corps of Engineers USGCRP United States Global Change Research Program VLM Vertical land movement WAIS West Antarctic Ice Sheet WMO World Meteorological Organization RECOMMENDATION OF SEA-LEVEL RISE PLANNING SCENARIOS FOR 6 DELAWARE -- NOVEMBER 2017 Executive Summary Sea-level rise
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