The Contribution of Forests to Climate Change Mitigation a Synthesis of Current Research and Understanding
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the contribution of forests to climate change mitigation a synthesis of current research and understanding Wageningen, Face the Future, January 2019 Publication number: 19.001 Report Commissioned by: REDD+ Business Initiative and Greenchoice Authors: Wouter van Goor and Martijn Snoep 1 1 Colofon: February 2019, Face the Future Wageningen, The Netherlands Publication number: 19.001 The contribution of forests to climate change mitigation A synthesis of current research and understanding Authors: Wouter van Goor and Martijn Snoep Commissioned by: Disclaimer The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the RBI or Greenchoice. We regret any errors or omissions that may have been unwittingly made. © illustrations and graphs as specified. photos by Face the Future The role of forests in global and other Land use’ (FOLU) or Land Cost-effectiveness of REDD+ climate change Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry The majority of carbon prices around EXECUTIVE For the past 25 years, forest cover (LULCF) account for around 10% the world do not yet properly reflect SUMMARY in temperate climate countries has of the global net carbon emissions societal and environmental costs of 1 been stable or increasing. Since the (mainly from tropical deforestation). climate change and are still too low 1960s however, tropical forests are When considering gross emissions to reduce emissions fast enough to experiencing severe pressure and (total anthropogenic emissions from limit global warming to a safe level. deforestation and forest degradation deforestation without the deduction Without the right level of ambition on Although many studies suggest that have increased with alarming rates. of sequestration by forested climate change and well-functioning the global mitigation goals cannot Between 2000 and 2017 the rate of land elsewhere) however, FOLU is carbon pricing systems huge costs be met without the inclusion of deforestation doubled and rose to a responsible for approximately 30% of are expected for future generations. forests, reducing deforestation and loss of more than 14 Million hectares the global total carbon emissions. forest degradation, reforestation in 2017 (about four times the size of Avoiding deforestation and forest and improved forest management the Netherlands; WRI, 2018). Estimates of the mitigation potential degradation offers a large, fast, and (IFM), they are often overlooked as from afforestation and reforestation cost-effective means of reducing readily available carbon removal Forest land stores approximately 60% (AR) vary, from 0.5–3.6 GtCO2e/yr emissions. With price estimates solutions. Forests have great of the total carbon stock contained in (to 2050) up to 2.7-17.9 GtCO2e/yr varying between US$10-100 per potential to deliver on the climate terrestrial carbon pools. Around 30% (to 2030). The variation in estimates tCO2e, studies estimate that up mitigation goals while at the same of the current anthropogenic CO2e is, among others, related to different to 80% of the potential estimated time providing important benefits emissions are removed by terrestrial assumptions on the amount of land mitigation potential for avoided to soils, air, water, biodiversity and ecosystems (mainly forests), the loss that is available without inducing deforestation and forest degradation development. However, forests and of forest causes direct emissions conflict with other land use. Improved can be achieved (and up to 50% at or lands only receive 3% of available from deforestation and reduces the forest management (IFM) offers large below US$10/tCO2e). climate funding. capacity of global forests to remove mitigation opportunities, many of these emissions. In total, the current which can be implemented rapidly Costs for afforestation and In this report we discuss the potential global forests store a greater amount without changes in land use or tenure reforestation (AR) range between role and cost-effectiveness of of carbon than the estimated carbon (Griscom, et al., 2017). However, US$1-100/tCO2e, while estimates of forest conservation, restoration and emission potential of the current such strategies would also entail the cost effectiveness of improved management (REDD+) in climate available fossil fuel reserves. severe reductions in annual wood forest management range between change mitigation; the value and harvest volumes of these forests and US$10-100/tCO2e. (co-) benefits of forests and REDD+ Studies estimated that the annual plantations. It was estimated that up and; the constraints, risks and emissions from deforestation, to 18% of cost-effective mitigation The latest IPCC report indicates that safeguards associated with REDD+ forest degradation, forest fires, peat potential through 2030 could be delays in reducing GHG emissions implementation and management. fires and peat decay (collectively realized with AR and IFM combined means that in future we will become grouped under the term ‘Forestry (based on Griscom et al., 2017). increasingly dependent on ‘Negative 3 3 Emission Technologies’ (NETs) for are regularly valued higher than boundaries of the forest itself. On and other stakeholders are carefully achieving the climate goals. However, other project categories due to the the one hand this underlines the high considered. to date, AR is considered the only appeal and substantial co-benefits potential impact and significance ‘mature’ NET technology that already of forest projects. However, due to of REDD+, but also the massive Conclusion exists at scale, with the potential large supply and low demand current damage that deforestation and forest With robust environmental and social for storing large amounts of carbon, market prices are still often at the degradation can cause at multiple standards and safeguards, enshrined ignoring the other major, often more bottom of or below the cost for levels and scales. in standards, methodologies as well cost-effective, categories. implementation. Additionally, these as national and international policies projects often require substantial REDD+’s rigorous design and and programs, REDD+ offers a large, While the potential of forests as up-front investment and cannot methodologies strive to ensure fast, and cost-effective means of a mitigation strategy outside of exist based on sales from carbon that the impacts are real, reducing emissions while at the same the tropics are often limited, in credits alone. Without the prospect additional and remain intact in time creating substantial net positive developing countries reducing of a stable carbon price it is difficult the long term. Additionally, REDD+ social and environmental benefits. deforestation and forest degradation to attract mainstream financing. includes safeguards to ensure that could offer nearly half the potential of On the other hand, REDD+ credits unintended emissions resulting from cost-effective emission reductions. do not suffer from conflicting local the project intervention outside Although compliance markets have policies such as renewable feed-in the project boundary are avoided yet to accept REDD+ offsets, there tariffs which are beginning to exclude and if not avoidable, mitigated and is a large potential for western many other project types from the accounted for. countries to significantly contribute voluntary carbon market amidst to climate change mitigation through concerns over additionality. REDD+ Potential and investments in REDD+ abroad. Safeguards for Long-Term Simultaneously these countries The co-benefits of REDD+ Benefits can increase their ambition to close Next to the substantial potential It is also important to look at the the gap between current NDC’s / to contribute to climate change impacts of REDD+ to the local domestic policies and what is needed mitigation, REDD+ projects have population. Assurances to engage to deliver on the goals of the Paris significant positive impacts on communities and indigenous peoples, Agreement. biodiversity conservation and to apply free and prior informed restoration, the development of consent (FPIC), are mandatory for REDD+ in the voluntary livelihoods of local communities and REDD+ projects and doing ‘no-net- market the preservation and recovery of a harm’ to communities is a minimum REDD+ credits are the most broad range of ecosystem services condition. REDD+ has the potential to commonly transacted voluntary provided by forests. These benefits be pro-poor and create net positive offsets over the past decade. are very much interlinked and can social benefits, provided that the Carbon credits of forest projects have an impact well beyond the interests of forest-dependent people 4 4 TABLE OF 0 CONTENTS 1 Introduction .................................................................5 2 The role of forests in global climate change ...................................6 3 Cost-effectiveness of REDD+ ................................................12 4 The (co-) benefits of REDD+ .................................................19 5 REDD+ Potential and Safeguards for Long-Term Benefits .................... 24 6 Conclusion ................................................................ 28 7 References ................................................................ 30 Studies (Federici et al., 2017; Grassi et al., 2017; Griscom Agreement. Most of the REDD+ activities have been et al., 2017; Rockström et al., 2017; Seymour and Busch, at individual project level within the voluntary carbon INTRODUCTION 2016) and