71 Who, As We Have Noted, Had Worked out the Primary Reason for Crashes a Century Earlier: Boom
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On the Classification of Economic Fluctuations
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Explorations in Economic Research, Volume 2, number 2 Volume Author/Editor: NBER Volume Publisher: NBER Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/moor75-2 Publication Date: 1975 Chapter Title: On the Classification of Economic Fluctuations Chapter Author: John R. Meyer, Daniel H. Weinberg Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c7408 Chapter pages in book: (p. 43 - 78) Moo5 2 'fl the 'if at fir JOHN R. MEYER National Bureau of Economic on, Research and Harvard (Jriiversity drawfi 'Ces DANIEL H. WEINBERG National Bureau of Economic iliOns Research and'ale University 'Clical Ihit onth Economic orith On the Classification of 1975 0 Fluctuations and ABSTRACT:Attempts to classify economic fluctuations havehistori- cally focused mainly on the identification of turning points,that is, so-called peaks and troughs. In this paper we report on anexperimen- tal use of multivariate discriminant analysis to determine afour-phase classification of the business cycle, using quarterly andmonthly U.S. economic data for 1947-1973. Specifically, weattempted to discrimi- nate between phases of (1) recession, (2) recovery, (3)demand-pull, and (4) stagflation. Using these techniques, we wereable to identify two complete four-phase cycles in the p'stwarperiod: 1949 through 1953 and 1960 through 1969. ¶ As a furher test,extrapolations were made to periods occurring before February 1947 andalter September 1973. Using annual data for the period 1926 -1951, a"backcasting" to the prewar U.S. economy suggests that the n.ajordifference between prewar and postwar business cycles isthe onii:sion of the stagflation phase in the former. -
Marc Faber Limited May 26, 2003
THE GLOOM, BOOM & DOOM REPORT ISSN 1017-1371 A PUBLICATION OF MARC FABER LIMITED MAY 26, 2003 Do Great Investment Opportunities Knock on Your Door Only Once??? It is much more easy to have sympathy with suffering than it is to have sympathy with thought. Accordingly, with admirable, though misdirected intentions, they very seriously and very sentimentally set themselves to the task of remedying the evils that they see. But their remedies do not cure the disease: they merely prolong it. Indeed, their remedies are part of the disease. Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism (1890) INTRODUCTION from the list of most livable cities. people’s homes. The danger in According to a survey conducted by Thailand isn’t violence, but poor As some of my readers may know, Mercer Human Resources driving. Most drivers in the north almost three years ago I moved my Consulting, Zurich has the world’s don’t observe road rules, and few family to Chiangmai, where we have highest quality of life, ahead of even have a driver’s licence. Each remodelled an old Thai house by the Vancouver and Vienna. In the US, year during Sonkran (the week-long river that runs through the city. Now, San Francisco was the top-rated city Thai New Year’s festival during my office building is also 99% (placed number 18), while New York which people throw water at each completed (in Thailand, nothing is was rated number 44 and Los Angeles other, and which is actually a lot of ever 100% finished) and this is the 53. -
Information to Users
INFORMATION TO USERS This manuscript has been reproduced from the microfilm master. UMI films the text directly from the original or copy submitted. Thus, som e thesis and dissertation copies are in typewriter face, while others may be from any type of computer printer. The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. Broken or indistinct print, colored or poor quality illustrations and photographs, print bleedthrough, substandard margins, and improper alignment can adversely affect reproduction. In the unlikely event that the author did not send UMI a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if unauthorized copyright material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Oversize materials (e.g., maps, drawings, charts) are reproduced by sectioning the original, beginning at the upper left-hand corner and continuing from left to right in equal sections with small overlaps. Photographs included in the original manuscript have been reproduced xerographically in this copy. Higher quality 6” x 9” black and white photographic prints are available for any photographs or illustrations appearing in this copy for an additional charge. Contact UMI directly to order. ProQuest Information and Learning 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 USA 800-521-0600 ____ ® UMI BEFORE THE GREAT SOCIETY: LIBERALISM, DEINDUSTRIALIZATION AND AREA REDEVELOPMENT IN THE UNITED STATES, 1933 - 1965 DISSERTATION Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Gregory S. Wilson, M.A. ***** The Ohio State University 2001 Dissertation Committee: Approved by Professor William R. -
Where Keynes Went Wrong
Praise for Where Keynes Went Wrong “[An] impassioned . and . much needed book. In plain prose, . Hunter Lewis . begins by patiently walking us through precisely what Keynes said . then reveals why Keynes’s work is ‘remarkably unsupported by evidence or logic.’ Lewis does much more besides, showing how Keynesianism has lived in the minds and hearts of politicians, with disastrous results.” —Gene Epstein, Barron’s “Lewis has exposed with unmatched clarity the lineaments of Keynes’s system and enabled us to see exactly its disabling defects. Keynes defied common sense, unable to sustain the brilliant para- doxes that his fertile intellect constantly devised. Lewis’s book is an ideal guide to Keynes’s dangerous and destructive economics. .” —David Gordon, LewRockwell.com “Just what the world needs, and just in time. Keynes is demolished and his quack system refuted. But this wonderful book does more. It restores clear thinking and common sense to their rightful places in the economic policy debate. Three cheers for Hunter Lewis!” —James Grant, Editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer “Hunter Lewis has written a splendid book called Where Keynes We nt Wrong. The dissection of the English economist who died in 1946 is especially timely, given that the past two administra- tions and the current one are identical in believing wholeheart- edly in . key Keynesian dogma.” —Patrick McIlheran, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel “[This] compelling, powerful, and extremely readable book . is fantastic. ‘Must’ reading.” —Kevin Price, CBS and CNN Radio and BizPlusBlog “Lewis has done a service, even if in the negative, of concisely and critically summarizing Keynes’s economic theories, and his book will make readers think.” —Library Journal “[This] highly readable . -
Down Market Battle Plan
The Shape of Recovery: What’s Next? Panelists Leon LaBrecque Matt Pullar JD, CPA, CFP®, CFA Vice President, Private Client Chief Growth Officer Services 248.918.5905 216.774.1192 [email protected] [email protected] 2 As an independent financial services firm, our About Sequoia salaried, non-commission professionals have Financial Group access to a variety of solutions and resources and our recommendations are based solely on what works best for you, not us. 3 1. What are we monitoring? 2. What are we hearing from our Financial investment partners? Market Update 3. What are we recommending? 4 COVID-19: U.S. Confirmed Cases and Fatalities S o urce: Johns Hopkins CSSE, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of June 30, 2020. 5 Consumer Sentiment Index S o urce: CONSSENT Index (University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index) Copyright 2020 Bloomberg Finance L.P. 17-Jul-2020 6 COVID-19: Fatalities S o urce – New York Times https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/0 7/20/multimedia/20-MORNING- 7DAYDEATHS/20-MORNING- 7DAYDEATHS-articleLarge.png 7 High-Frequency Economic Activity S o urce: Apple Inc., FlightRadar24, Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), OpenTable, STR, Transportation Security Administration (TSA), J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *Driving directions and total global flights are 7- day moving averages and are compared to a pre-pandemic baseline. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of June 30, 2020. 8 S&P 500 Index at Inflection Points S o urce: Compustat, FactSet, Federal Reserve, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. -
Mr. Chetan Parikh and Mr. J.Mulraj of Capital Ideas Online Interviewed Dr Marc Faber
Mr. Chetan Parikh and Mr. J.Mulraj of Capital Ideas Online interviewed Dr Marc Faber . Dr Marc Faber was born in Zurich and studied Economics at the University of Zurich, obtaining a Ph.D. at the age of 24. Between 1970 and 1978 he worked at White Weld & Co Ltd. For the next twelve years he was the Managing Director of Drexel Burnham Lambert, based in Hong Kong. In 1990 he set up his own firm Marc Faber Ltd., acting as an investment advisor, fund manager and broker/dealer. He is a well known ‘contrarian investor’ and brings out a monthly newsletter called the ‘Gloom, Boom and Doom Report’. His website is at www.gloomboomdoom.com. He is the author of a boom ‘The Great Money Illusion – the Confusion of the Confusions’. He was recently in Mumbai and gave a speech at a function organized by Enam Financial Consultants Ltd. J Mulraj and Chetan Parikh, of www.capitalideasonline.com interviewed Dr Faber in Mumbai. Q: Thank you Dr. Faber for giving us this interview for capitalideasonline. Even prior to Sept. 11th you had a very bearish outlook on the global economy. The Sept. 11th terrorist attacks have certainly impacted globalization in terms of outsourcing, production, just in time inventory management, supply scale economy. How badly is globalization affected in your opinion and how would global economy growth suffer? A: Actually before Sept. 11th I was particularly negative about the U.S. economy and the economies of the Western industrialized nations. I thought that the Asian economies had bottomed out. And I still think that relatively speaking the Asian economies will do better probably in the years to come and that the financial markets in Asia will do better than say in America. -
F I S C a L I M P a C T R E P O
Fiscal impact reports (FIRs) are prepared by the Legislative Finance Committee (LFC) for standing finance committees of the NM Legislature. The LFC does not assume responsibility for the accuracy of these reports if they are used for other purposes. Current and previously issued FIRs are available on the NM Legislative Website (www.nmlegis.gov) and may also be obtained from the LFC in Suite 101 of the State Capitol Building North. F I S C A L I M P A C T R E P O R T ORIGINAL DATE 02/07/14 SPONSOR Dodge LAST UPDATED HB 234 SHORT TITLE Exclude NOL Carryover For Up To 20 Years SB ANALYST Graeser REVENUE (dollars in thousands) Estimated Revenue Recurring Fund FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 or Nonrecurring Affected General *** Nonrecurring Fund (Parenthesis ( ) Indicate Revenue Decreases) See “FISCAL ISSUES” below for a discussion of impacts in FY18 and beyond. Duplicates SB 156 and conflicts with SB 106. See discussion below in “FISCAL ISSUES.” SOURCES OF INFORMATION LFC Files Responses Received From Economic Development Department (EDD) Taxation and Revenue Department (TRD) SUMMARY Synopsis of Bill House Bill 234 would extend net operating loss carryovers (NOLs) incurred from net income reported for corporate income tax purposes and personal income tax purposes from the current five-year period to 20-years for taxable years (TYs) beginning after January 1, 2013. For TYs beginning before January 1, 2013, NOLs not recovered after five years would be extinguished. Losses incurred in taxable years beginning after January 1, 2013 would be allowed to be excluded from net income until recovered or twenty years from the taxable year of loss, whichever is earlier. -
Simon Kuznets and the Empirical Tradition in Economics
This PDF is a selection from a published volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Political Arithmetic: Simon Kuznets and the Empirical Tradition in Economics Volume Author/Editor: Robert William Fogel, Enid M. Fogel, Mark Guglielmo, and Nathaniel Grotte Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press Volume ISBN: 0-226-25661-8, 978-0-226-25661-0 (cloth) Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/foge12-1 Conference Date: n/a Publication Date: March 2013 Chapter Title: The Emergence of National Income Accounting as a Tool of Economic Policy Chapter Author(s): Robert William Fogel, Enid M. Fogel, Mark Guglielmo, Nathaniel Grotte Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c12915 Chapter pages in book: (p. 49 - 64) 3 :: The Emergence of National Income Accounting as a Tool of Economic Policy Herbert Hoover was sworn in as president at the end of a decade of generally vigorous economic growth, marred by the deep but short recession of 1920–21. By March 1929, the economy was near the top of a vigorous boom. In his inaugural address, Hoover was lyrical in his vision of American prosperity: “Ours is a land rich in resources; stimulating in its glorious beauty; fi lled with millions of happy homes; blessed with comforts and opportunity. In no nation are the institu- tions of progress more advanced. In no nation are the fruits of accom- plishment more secure. In no nation is the government more worthy of respect. No country is more loved by its people. I have an abiding faith in their capacity, integrity, and high purpose. -
Austrian Economics Golden Opportunities Fund
Austrian Economics Golden Opportunities Fund Prepared for Inflation And Deflation Ronald-Peter Stöferle & Mark J. Valek Executive Summary I Quo Vadis… The Fund and its Objectives ► Real (inflation-adjusted) growth in uncertain times ► Active protection against Inflation/Deflation ► Absolute Return, Global Macro approach ► Target return 8% p.a. ► Modest Drawdown-Risk (Ø Volatility between 10 and 12%) ► Diversification to traditional bond and equity portfolios …Inflation or Deflation? Our Investment Approach ► Identifying the respective inflation momentum utilizing the „Incrementum-Inflation-Signal“. ► Strategies are implemented based on our know-how in the Inflation/Deflation portfolio via precious metals, equities and commodities. ► Budget for tactical opportunities for other themes using Austrian School perspective. Sources: Societe Generale, Incrementum AG 2 Executive Summary II Austrian Economics for Investors Our Investment Philosophy ► Insights of the Austrian School of Economics are the intellectual foundation of our macro-analyses. ► In contrast to traditional tenets the Austrian School recognizes the “fiat money” and fractional reserve banking system as the major cause of the ongoing crisis. Conservative Risk Profile Characteristics of the Fund ► No benchmark, Absolute Return approach ► Active asset allocation for Inflation or Deflation by means of diversified basket of securities ► Significantly lower volatility (between 10-12%) compared to mining stocks (about 50%) and silver (about 35%) ► UCITS IV Funds Sources: Societe Generale, -
Nominal GDP Targeting for a Speedier Economic Recovery
Munich Personal RePEc Archive Nominal GDP targeting for a speedier economic recovery Eagle, David M. Eastern Washington University 8 March 2012 Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/39821/ MPRA Paper No. 39821, posted 04 Jul 2012 12:20 UTC Nominal GDP Targeting for a Speedier Economic Recovery By David Eagle Associate Professor of Finance Eastern Washington University Email: [email protected] Phone: (509) 828-1228 Abstract: For U.S. recessions since 1948, we study paneled time series of (i) ExUR, the excess of the unemployment rate over the prerecession rate, and (ii) NGAP, the percent deviation of nominal GDP from its prerecession trend. Excluding the 1969-70 and 1973-75 recessions, a regression of ExUR on current and past values of NGAP has an R2 of 75%. Simulations indicate that NGDP targeting could have eliminated 84% of the average ExUR during the period from 1.5 years and 4 years after the recessions began. The maximum effect of NGAP on unemployment occurs with a lag of 2 to 3 quarters. Revised: March 8, 2012 © Copyright 2012, by David Eagle. All rights reserved. Nominal GDP Targeting for a Speedier Economic Recovery By David Eagle “Major institution change occurs only at times of crisis. … I hope no crises will occur that will necessitate a drastic change in domestic monetary institutions. … Yet, it would be burying one’s head in the sand to fail to recognize that such a development is a real possibility. … If it does, the best way to cut it short, to minimize the harm it would do, is to be ready not with Band-Aids but with a real cure for the basic illness.” Milton Friedman, 1984 Figure 1. -
Monetary Policy in Postwar Years
Monetary Policy in Postwar Years I. G. Patel* •?TER A DECADE or so of comparative disuse, a number of coun- A tries have, in recent years, turned increasingly to an active use of monetary policy. There is nothing monotheistic about this revival. It is generally appreciated that monetary techniques can be fully effective only in combination with proper budgetary and other policies. Monetary policy itself is being revived in a form somewhat different from the one familiar in prewar days. In addition to the simple classical techniques of discount rate changes and open market operations, central banks have added a variety of new and complex weapons to their ar- mory. The underlying economic situation has changed in many coun- tries, and now that the usefulness of monetary policy in general is widely recognized, the chief point of interest about its recent revival is the manner in which it is being adapted to the present needs of different countries. Granted the need for its active use, the question that becomes important is the choice of the proper techniques for the purpose. In this analysis of monetary policy during the years since World War II, attention will first be directed to the factors that led to the compara- tive neglect of monetary policy during the forties and to the forces responsible for its revival in recent years. Then a brief general survey of the different monetary techniques and their comparative usefulness will be given.1 In the later sections of the paper, the monetary techniques employed in the postwar years by six countries—the United States, the United Kingdom, Belgium, France, Germany, and the Netherlands—will be surveyed. -
Karl Brunner and Allan Meltzer
Karl Brunner and Allan Meltzer: From Monetary Policy to Monetary History to Monetary Rules* Prepared for the Conference “Karl Brunner and Monetarism” Swiss National Bank, Zurich, Switzerland, October 29-30, 2018 Michael D Bordo Rutgers University, Hoover Institution, and NBER Economics Working Paper 19104 HOOVER INSTITUTION 434 GALVEZ MALL STANFORD UNIVERSITY STANFORD, CA 94305-6010 March 1, 2019 Karl Brunner and Allan Meltzer were pioneer monetarists whose work in the 1960s and 1970s challenged the prevailing Keynesian orthodoxy. A major part of their work was a critique of the Federal Reserve System’s monetary policy strategy from the 50s leading to the Great inflation. This paper explores the nexus between Brunner and Meltzer’s earlier work in a report prepared for the US congress in 1964 on the System’s discretionary counter cyclical policy in its first fifty years of existence, and Allan Meltzer’s monumental two volume A History of the Federal Reserve (2003, 2009). Many of the themes in the early report reappeared in A History. A key theme in the 1964 monograph was a critique of the Fed’s use of the Net Free Reserves doctrine which had evolved in the 1950s from the earlier Burgess Rieffler Strong doctrine which guided Fed policy in the 1920s and 1930s. which the authors argued explained the Fed’s policy mistakes leading to the Great Contraction. They posit the case that their monetarist approach based on the money supply, monetary base and money multiplier could have greatly improved the Fed’s performance from the 1920s to the 1960s.The 1964 monograph was a key building block for their later work in monetary theory and policy including their critique of Keynes, the importance of policy uncertainty and the case for a monetary base rule.