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Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

The Social Science Journal

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/soscij

Illuminating the Sewol Ferry Disaster using the institutional

model of punctuated equilibrium theory

a b,∗

Ki Woong Cho , Kyujin Jung

a

Department of Public Administration, Korea University, Seoul, 02841, South Korea

b

Department of Public Administration and the Graduate School of Governance, Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul, 03063, South Korea

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: The Sewol Ferry Disaster undermined the South Korean government’s efforts to establish

Received 15 February 2018

the country as a crisis-free region. Considering the number of fatalities and the immensity

Received in revised form

of the disaster, the South Korean legislators passed three acts concerning the Sewol Ferry

31 December 2018

Disaster: the Sewol Special Act, the Government Organization Act, and the Yoo Byung-

Accepted 31 December 2018

eun Act. The strength of this study is that it illuminates the Sewol Ferry Disaster using the

Available online xxx

institutional model of the punctuated equilibrium theory (PET), applied in a Korean setting.

Moreover, it elucidates the concept of punctuated events and their impact on budgets and

Keywords:

public attention, primarily using Google Trends, as it examines policy changes following the

Punctuated equilibrium theory

disaster and demonstrates inconsistencies in the PET. The authors conducted a case study on

Sewol Ferry Disaster

the Sewol Ferry Disaster and the three subsequent Sewol Acts to illuminate the effect of the

Three Sewol Acts

Policy process disaster on policy processes. Using the prior history of punctuated events in South Korea, we

Google Trends demonstrated a higher propensity for punctuation and the functions of positive feedback

after the policy monopoly collapse that followed the Sewol Ferry Disaster in South Korea.

We also demonstrated that fewer instances of negative feedback are observed in South

Korea than in the United States. Based on these findings, PET can be applied and developed

a larger number of different settings by future studies.

© 2019 Western Social Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction ties that respond to disasters, especially following the

emergence of a disaster (Schneider, 1995). Disasters influ-

Political systems respond to crises with increased atten- ence the perceptions of voters regardless of their direct

tion when a focusing event occurs (Birkland, 2006, 1997). experience with disasters (Gasper & Reeves, 2011). Poor

Organizations change their budgets and organizational management of emergency situations can threaten the

structure in accordance with new laws after a focusing public perception of political regimes (Kim, 2008). More-

event such as a disaster, a large-scale incident, or a scan- over, like many other catastrophic events, those that are

dal. Good management in response to significant problems unexpected, such as the September 11 attacks, promote

contributes to the likelihood that politicians will be elected. presidential authority and the centralization of presidential

For instance, government agencies are the primary enti- power (Sylves, 2008), which is called “disaster politiciza-

tion” (Chung, 2013; Hörhager, 2015). This research aims to

investigate disaster politicization by examining the Sewol

∗ Ferry Disaster of 2014 in South Korea.

Corresponding author.

E-mail address: [email protected] (K. Jung).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.12.010

0362-3319/© 2019 Western Social Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Please cite this article in press as: K.W. Cho and K Jung. Illuminating the Sewol Ferry Disaster using the institutional model

of punctuated equilibrium theory. The Social Science Journal (2019), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.12.010

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2 K.W. Cho and K Jung / The Social Science Journal xxx (2019) xxx–xxx

Table 1

Final Outcomes after the Sewol Disaster.

Total Students Teachers Passengers Crew Other

Persons aboard 476 325 14 104 23 10

Survivors 172 75 3 71 18 5

Deceased 295 246 9 30 5 5

Missing 9 4 2 3 – –

1.1. Sewol Ferry Disaster to unprecedented sweeping changes to emergency organi-

zations and budgets within disaster-related organizations.

1

On April 16, 2014, the Sewol Ferry left for Jeju Island These changes led to a transformation of disaster

from Incheon. Most of the passengers were in their sec- management and policies. Usually, controversies do not

ond year of high school in the city of Ansan in the Gyeonggi follow disasters because even opponents employ disas-

Province and had boarded as part of a school excursion. ter as an opportunity to demonstrate their abilities as

The Disaster occurred approximately 20 km off the coast leaders (Schneider, 1995). However, many controversies

of Byungpoong Island to the southwest of mainland South followed the Sewol Ferry Disaster, as politicians fought

Korea (Jung, Song, & Park, 2018). Officials claimed that a over how to investigate and prevent future disasters and

combination of overloading, incorrect freight binding, the abruptly passed acts and created organizations to deal with

ship’s diminished self-righting force, and steering mistakes such crises. These actions made the Sewol Ferry Disaster

caused the accident (Truth Foundation Sewol Ferry Recode emblematic of PET in South Korea. Due to its status as a

Team, 2016). The government’s poor performance and national political controversy, the Sewol Ferry Disaster is a

inappropriate decisions contributed to the deaths of more prime example for exploring the influence of such events

than 300 victims (Hwang, 2015); the death toll elevated on government organizations and budgets, the media, and

public interest in the event. For instance, the government citizen engagement in disaster politics.

did not know the exact number of passengers on the ship. In

fact, false reports were even made of the successful rescue

1.2. Research questions

of all passengers. After the ferry capsized and was sub-

merged, no additional students were able to be rescued

Organizations, budgets, the media, citizen attention,

(See Table 1). The government’s poor decisions led to a

and public administration in general play an important

man-made disaster (Shaluf, 2007; Tarn, Wen, & Shih, 2008),

role in public policy and management. As such, we need

which was further complicated by the media’s criticism of

to analyze the dramatic changes in organizations, budgets,

the government’s response. To make matters worse, other

the level of attention, and policies that follow substantial

problems (such as fast currents, poor visibility in the water,

events to prevent disasters. Stated generally, our research

and technical issues) prevented divers from quickly retriev-

question is as follows: According to the PET institutional

ing passengers. The images and coverage of these fatalities

model, how and why did the Sewol Ferry Disaster, as well

presumably led to better restitution for victims and their

the subsequent actions and interactions of actors in the pol-

families because the coverage of these fatalities brought

icy arena, break the policy monopoly and shape the resultant

greater attention to their plight.

new policy? To answer this question, this research primarily

This local disaster became a national issue that many

focuses on the application of PET in the field of public pol-

Korean political figures used to shape the country’s disaster

icy related to the Sewol Ferry Disaster, and the authors seek

management policy. The Korea Institute of Finance pre-

to detect discrepancies between the theory in the United

dicted that the growth rate would decrease by 0.1% due to

States and its practice in South Korea and non-U.S. settings,

2

the public concern surrounding the Sewol Ferry Disaster.

as suggested by Mortensen (2005).

This facilitated social conflict between the ruling party and

After a brief review of the theoretical literature, the

opposition parties as well as between members of the con-

research method is presented and a case study of the Sewol

servative and liberal populace regarding the best course of

Ferry Disaster is outlined using the PET institutional model.

action for dealing with this disaster. Ultimately, the disas-

Furthermore, the reaction of political systems and policy

ter shattered the Korean societal norm related to the issue

change following the disaster within the PET are discussed.

of safety, fostered more disaster and safety alerts, and led

Thereafter, the discrepancies between the theory in the

United States and its practice in South Korea are illumi- nated.

1

“The gross registered tonnage of the ferry was 6,835, and its length

2. Literature review and theoretical considerations

was 146.61 m. Its beam was 22 meters, and its draught was 6.26 m. The

ferry had 64 cabins and 5 decks” (Jung et al., 2018, p. 278). The type of

ship is a combined-use ferry/cargo ship with a capacity of 921 (McKirdy 2.1. Punctuated equilibrium theory

& Cha, 2014).

2

This national mood even affected the Korean economy. Public agen-

Scholars have associated incremental decision making

cies and even private companies tended to curtail, cancel, or postpone

with bounded rationality and have refocused on PET as well

their ceremonies. Many high schools canceled or postponed their school

excursions, which caused a debate over the necessity of school excursions. (Baumgartner & Jones, 1993; Jones & Baumgartner, 2005b;

Please cite this article in press as: K.W. Cho and K Jung. Illuminating the Sewol Ferry Disaster using the institutional model

of punctuated equilibrium theory. The Social Science Journal (2019), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.12.010

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Jones et al., 2003). People generally see policy changes (Baumgartner & Jones, 1993; Yu, 2009). Meanwhile, posi-

gradually and observe rapid change following a focusing tive feedback follows the compromised image and serves to

event (Birkland, 1997). Previously, this was the main topic spread information on the issue to other venues (Princen,

of policy change for decades regarding the policy process 2013). Due to the positive feedback, a political agenda

(Robinson, Flink, & King, 2014). PET, a concept originating assists public policies’ movement to a new equilibrium,

from evolutionary biology (Gould & Eldredge, 1993; Jones & while negative feedback reduces these changes (True et al.,

Baumgartner, 2012), addressed this debate by incorporat- 2007). New actors involved with a fresh image push it to

ing both concepts into a single perspective of policy change the macro-political stage, and that image becomes per-

(Baumgartner & Jones, 2009). PET suggests that abrupt vasive (Mortensen, 2009; Kingdon, 1995). In addition to

changes in stable policy equilibrium—referred to as a policy the mobilization of interest and policy image change, cul-

3

monopoly —occur when a monopoly collapses following tural change follows as a new cultural norm is established

sudden societal shock events. Using the concepts of image (Fowler et al., 2017). Thus, cultural change is at the core of

4

and venue, PET uses the collapse of policy monopolies and policy change (Fowler et al., 2017).

positive and negative feedback to explain the dynamics PET is also theorized in the context of two venues: policy

of stability and describes changes in budget and attention subsystems and macro-political environments (Redford,

following a major event. 1969). Focusing events (e.g., disasters, large-scale events,

“Policy change is, paradoxically, both incremental and and scandals) encourage political systems to experi-

rapid” (Robinson et al., 2014, p. 459). PET assigns two ence drastic changes in their legislative decision making

periods to policymaking: a policy stasis of incremental- (Fowler et al., 2017) by pushing issues from subsystems

ism for long periods and policy punctuations for a short to macro-political environments and achieving cultural

6

period (Baumgartner & Jones 1993; Baumgartner, Jones, & penetration (Fowler et al., 2017). As dramatic change

Mortensen, 2014; Fowler, Neaves, Terman, & Cosby, 2017; occurs, power breakdowns in the policy subsystem shift

Robinson et al., 2014). Positive feedback dynamics acceler- to the macro-political environment (Fowler et al., 2017).

ate change, while negative feedback dynamics slow down Attention, scrutiny, and mobilization in terms of new inter-

or resist change. Baumgartner and Jones (1993) mentioned ests facilitate the breaking down of the status quo and

that the long period of negative feedback was overcome policy monopolies (Baumgartner & Jones, 1993; Fowler

and replaced by large-scale changes and positive feedback et al., 2017). Ultimately, unlike the normal distribution

in American politics. in an incremental policy process (Kwon, Choi, & Bae,

The politics of equilibrium in subsystems are main- 2013; Lindblom, 1959; Wildavsky, 1964), a policy under-

7

tained by the “politics of the policy monopoly, incremen- goes drastic change in a leptokurtic policy process,

talism, a widely accepted supportive image, and negative which is explained by the aspects of disproportionate

8 9

feedback” (Baumgartner et al., 2014, p. 67). Negative feed- information processing and institutional friction (Flink,

back occurs when a policy subsystem ignores signals and 2017). In addition, Robinson et al. (2014) developed the

reinforces the status quo, usually representing incremental error-accumulation model and the institutional model of

patterns (Princen, 2013). Under a singular policy image, a punctuated policy change to consider the history that has

policy monopoly can successfully remain when this image been understudied in the development of PET (Flink, 2017).

conforms to its culture (Fowler et al., 2017). The pol- Moreover, culture change should follow punctuations to

icy monopoly suppresses change with negative feedback; establish and begin a new cultural norm (Fowler et al.,

however, this does not always work (Baumgartner et al., 2017).

2014).

When a policy monopoly is broken up and there is a

change in the way an issue is defined (Marichal, 2009),

the issue moves from the subsystem to a position on the

macro-political agenda (True, Jones, & Baumgartner, 2007).

6

Cultural penetration is a kind of mechanism used to explain policy

The collapse of policy monopolies causes a loss of con-

5 change; without cultural impact, it would be difficult to cause policy

trol over policy images and allows more participation in

punctuation (Fowler et al., 2017).

7

the creation of public policy than was possible before the This has a trait of excess “peakedness” (Flink, 2017; Robinson, 2004, p.

shock event (Baumgartner & Jones, 1993; Birkland, 2006; 31). Also, the statement “Comparisons of kurtosis or the comparative fits

of distributions to power law distributions” was an early way to infer PET

Birkland, 1997). A positive image is damaged by a neg-

(Robinson et al., 2014, p. 462). However, an exceptional volume of data is

ative image that is supported by media and pro-change

needed to compare properties of the entire distribution (Robinson et al.,

groups and catalyzes the collapse of the policy monopoly 2014).

8

This is explained by a disproportionate response to new informa-

tion (Jones, 2001) and underreacting and overreacting to small and large

changes (Workman et al., 2009). This matches the leptokurtic distribution

3

A small group of political stakeholders, who maintain control over (Robinson et al., 2014).

9

their decision-making and benefits in policy subsystems to ensure incre- This explains the variation of leptokurtosis in its reliance on the role

mental policymaking (Fowler et al., 2017). (Jones et al., 2003), traits, and the context (Boushey, 2010) of a policymak-

4

Venues are institutional loci for which authorities determine a special ing system (Robinson et al., 2014). This is because institutions reduce the

policy (Baumgartner & Jones, 1991). decision-making process to quickly prevent a rapid and comprehensive

5

Policy image expresses the empirical information and emotional policy response (Jones et al., 2003). Organizational “friction” implies trans-

appeal and demonstrates cultural norms (Baumgartner & Jones, 1993). action and decision costs (Jones et al., 2003; Robinson et al., 2007) owing

A policy monopoly can be successful with a singular policy image (Fowler to the complexity of the process, including the coordination of people and

et al., 2017). rules (Robinson et al., 2007).

Please cite this article in press as: K.W. Cho and K Jung. Illuminating the Sewol Ferry Disaster using the institutional model

of punctuated equilibrium theory. The Social Science Journal (2019), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.12.010

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To consider the role of history, Robinson et al. (2014) be tested in more political systems with diverse character-

11

explain the error-accumulation model in terms of institu- istics (Princen, 2013) to enhance the level of confidence in

tional friction and the built-up need for budgetary change its generalizability.

(Robinson et al., 2014) and the institutional model in terms

of the endemic characteristics of an organization, thereby

supporting the latter (Robinson et al., 2014). The insti-

2.2.2. PET in South Korea

tutional model states that the propensity of punctuation

PET concepts can be applied to a diverse democratic

is positively associated with the recent experience (Flink,

society. A more pluralistic society with a competitive party

2017). This model contends that the propensity of punctu-

system in South Korea is also suitable for the application of

ation is higher in an organization that has recently incurred

PET in contexts beyond the United States. Most PET studies

a punctuating event (Robinson et al., 2014), which suggests

in South Korea have been conducted by analyzing the over-

that endemic institutional characteristics are predisposed

all patterns of change in budgets (Kim, 2012; Yoo, 2007a,

towards punctuation (Robinson et al., 2014). This large

2007b) rather than by using case studies (Kim & Lee, 2014).

and random change stems from mismanagement or inap-

However, the PET studies still lack analyses that cover the

propriate organizational design (Robinson et al., 2014).

entire PET process from punctuation to equilibriums and

The punctuation in the institutional model is contagious

stabilities with PET terminologies.

(Boushey, 2010). However, it is difficult to find an appli-

Fowler et al. (2017) pointed out that scholars need to

cation of this model in many settings beyond the work of

study the relevant culture in PET. Despite many PET stud-

Robinson et al. (2014).

ies, including those on the environment (Repetto, 2006)

and energy (Fowler et al., 2017; Grossman, 2015), few

2.2. Needs for this study: why PET needs to be applied in

studies have used the PET institutional model (Robinson

more diverse countries

et al., 2014) and a cultural perspective (Fowler et al., 2017).

To attain better generalizability of PET, it is meaningful

2.2.1. PET outside of South Korea

to note the difference between PET in the United States,

PET has usually been studied in Western settings, espe-

which has maintained and developed democracy for a long

cially in the United States. PET studies need greater gener-

time, despite its short history, and South Korea, which has

alizability and detailed descriptions of punctuation points.

recently established and developed democracy, despite its

PET has been initiated and studied in many countries (True

long history. This study applies the institutional model and

et al., 2007), such as the local, state, and federal govern-

traces the responses to the Sewol Ferry Disaster. In the end,

ment levels in the United States (Beard, 2013; Boushey,

we demonstrate the different propensities when the insti-

2012; Breunig & Koski, 2006; Busenberg, 1999; Flink, 2017;

tutional model of the punctuated equilibrium theory (PET)

Hegelich, Fraune, & Knollmann, 2015; Jordan, 2003; Kwon

is applied in a South Korean setting.

et al., 2013; Robinson, 2004; Robinson, Caver, Meier, &

O’Toole, 2007; Robinson et al., 2014; Shaw, 2017), Japan

(Yoo, 2007a), Indonesia (Shiffman, 2003), Canada (Pralle,

2.2.3. PET in disasters

2003), the UK (John & Jennings, 2010), England (John, 2006),

After long periods of stability, PET is a good tool

Denmark (Mortensen, 2005), Germany (Grossman, 2015),

for explaining abrupt and drastic changes in policy that

the Netherlands (Timmermans & Scholten, 2006), France

follow a focusing event, such as a disaster. Disasters

(Guiraudon, 2000), Belgium (Maesschalck, 2002), and the

require increased attention to organize change and quickly

EU nations (Princen, 2013; Sheingate, 2000). However,

modify budgets. Researchers studying disasters have also

considering that culture is one of the main influential punc-

12 employed PET. However, the use of PET in disasters

tuation factors (Fowler et al., 2017), non-Western PET

needs further consideration because these studies simply

settings need to be observed as well. Thus, PET must still

employed PET ideas rather than using PET terminologies.

Arneson, Deniz, Javernick-Will, Liel, and Dashti (2017)

10 show that the influence of information deficits in dis-

Robinson et al. (2014) measured the recency of organizations’

aster on post-disaster community stakeholders leads to

experience of punctuation by investigating whether organizations had

experienced punctuation within five years, based on Sabatier (1993). the applicability of punctuated equilibrium in the dis-

11

The assumption of the error-accumulation model is that if it were not aster areas. Tilcsik and Marquis (2013) demonstrated

for policy responses, the pressure for policy change would increase until it

how natural disasters as punctuating events impact cor-

reached a threshold where sufficient change could occur (Robinson et al.,

porate philanthropy in U.S. communities based on the

2014). At the threshold point, the policy system addresses the pressure

by reducing the difference between level of the demand and that of the idea of punctuated equilibrium. Shaw (2017) suggested

policy generation (Robinson et al., 2014). The propensity of punctuation that organizational changes reach institutional equilib-

is negatively associated with the recent experience in this model (Flink,

rium via the examination of the environmental disaster as

2017). Punctuation occurs to remedy the subsystem and reach a desired

a case study based on PET. Busenberg (1999) supported

policy level through incremental change (Flink, 2017).

12 the role of PET findings in natural disasters by applying

As long as members in society reflect its belief system, norms, and val-

ues, a societal culture experiences relative stability (Fowler et al., 2017). the atrophy of the vigilance hypothesis to the marine oil

However, when focusing events change the societal norms and values, trade in Alaska. However, these studies simply employed

the culture experiences a disruption, such as that prompted by 9/11 (May

the idea of “punctuations” rather than employing com-

et al., 2008); with predominant patterns in a given time and space (Hall,

prehensive theoretical terminologies and the return to

1993; March & Olsen, 1989), the community’s culture changes, and cul-

equilibrium.

tural penetration is achieved (Fowler et al., 2017).

Please cite this article in press as: K.W. Cho and K Jung. Illuminating the Sewol Ferry Disaster using the institutional model

of punctuated equilibrium theory. The Social Science Journal (2019), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.12.010

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3. Research design and method different sources and validates qualitative researchers’ data

by triangulating information (Creswell, 2013). To bolster

19

This research is an application of PET “theory,” which reliability; we followed systematic protocols (Yin, 2014)

was established in the United States, to a “case” in South for collecting; assembling; and analyzing the data. Addi-

Korea, but it is not a comparison because it would be diffi- tionally; to conform to PET; we mentioned the varying

20

cult to find a case similar to the Sewol Ferry Disaster in degree of kurtosis, as recommended by Robinson et al.

other countries. We tried to find an anomaly in PET by (2014).

applying the Sewol Ferry Disaster. Furthermore, few schol-

ars have employed the institutional model of punctuated

3.1. PET propositions

policy change (Robinson et al., 2014). The “Sewol Ferry”

timeline included in this study relates to the core policy

13 Based on PET, this research suggests propositions in

process that produced the Three Sewol Acts between

which PET either fits well or does not. We describe how

April 2014 and the end of 2014. Data were collected from

and why the Sewol Ferry Disaster influenced policy pro-

archival records on government websites and through por-

14 cesses along with negative and positive feedback across

tal site keyword searches. The collection of data was

venues and shaped the resulting policy based on PET. If

based on documents and archival records following the

15 PET fits South Korea well, then it describes the change in

chain of evidence. The included events cover the period

organizations, budgets, the media, and citizen attention

before the Sewol Ferry Disaster until November 2014. It

characterizing the emergency policy arena. If PET works

was difficult to observe the factors and measurements

well in describing the disaster, then we can anticipate

related to the punctuated policy change with a regres-

an image of a safe South Korea and a prominent policy

sion approach (Robinson et al., 2014). Therefore; due to

monopoly, with a lack of attention on the policy before

the complexity of the circumstances (Crow, 2008); we

16 the disaster. After the image of national safety collapses,

employed a case study. The changes that took place

positive and negative feedback across venues originating

before and after the Sewol Ferry Disaster and until the

from competing political interests after the Sewol Ferry

passage of Three Sewol Acts were analyzed. This study is

Disaster could be clearly observed. In the end, political

only concerned with events occurring within the national

systems reach stability without garnering additional atten-

and geographic boundary of South Korea. We performed

tion following negative feedback. If PET does not accurately

an analysis based on Yin’s (2014) approach to examin-

17 describe the aftermath of the Sewol Ferry Disaster, then we

ing theoretical propositions. To bolster the veracity of

can review evidence that has not been presented by PET

the data and our conclusions; we employed triangulating

theories and studies in the United States.

techniques throughout the analysis. To describe the theme

18

or perspective; triangulation typically corroborates with

1985; Merriam, 1988; Miles & Huberman, 1994; Patton, 1980, 1990). In

describing the theme or perspective, triangulation is typically used to cor-

13

Dismantling the KCG and creating MPSS corresponds to the Govern- roborate different sources and validate qualitative researchers’ data by

ment Organization Act, chasing Mr. Yoo for his corruption and embezzling triangulating information (Creswell, 2013).

19

money corresponds to the Yoo Byung-eun Act, and revealing the causes of This case study protocol helps keep the researcher focused on the topic

the disaster corresponds to the Sewol Special Act. of the case study and assists the researcher in anticipating some prob-

14

Google, Naver, or Daum (Naver and Daum are the biggest search lems (Yin, 2014). This protocol provides general guidelines, a standardized

engines, like Google). The keywords used were “Sewol Ferry.” agenda, and a set of steps for the researcher’s inquiry (Yin, 2014). Some

15

The chain of evidence can bolster the reliability of information (Yin, examples of the main segments of our protocol are as follows: Data collec-

2014). The chain of evidence comprises “the links—showing how findings tion was conducted based on documents and archival records following

come from the data that were collected and in turn from the guidelines the chain of evidence. In accordance with the research questions stated

in the case study protocol and from the original research questions—that above, we addressed our empirical materials based on detailed questions

strengthen the reliability of a case study’s research procedures” (Yin, 2014, from Cairney and Heikkila (2014, p. 376) as follows: -Who are the actors

p. 238). who made (or influenced) the choice on the agenda?; -Which kind of role of

16

Case studies (Pralle, 2003; Timmermans & Scholten, 2006) have com- institution as rules or venues exist in decision making?; -What is the subsys-

monly been used for PET studies since the early works of Baumgartner tem (or network) in the policy process, and how does it work?; -How does

and Jones (1991, 1993). the main idea from each theory work in this case?; -What is the context of

17

Theoretical propositions as a deductive approach are derived from the Sewol Ferry Disaster?; -What is the main event relating to policy change?

theoretical models (Cavaye, 1996) for theory development (Yin, 2014). The How does it trigger the policy change?; -Are any other relevant issues related

theoretical propositions are tested indirectly, which Popper (1968) called to the policy process following the Sewol Ferry Disaster? In recognition of

deductive theory testing (Lee, 1989). This strategy has been suggested and my own biases in filtering the meanings in the data we collect, we were

used by many scholars (Benbasat et al., 1987; Lee, 1989; Rogowski 2010; sensitive about finding contrary evidence before drawing premature con-

Yin, 1980). Researchers have outlined theoretical propositions to forge a clusions (Yin, 2014). In addition, we employed our research supervisor to

logical conclusion or prediction (Cavaye, 1996). Theoretical propositions “reality check” our ongoing conclusions and to entertain competing inter-

ask “why” and “how” to hypothesize causal relations (Chetty, 1996, p. pretations in the analysis. Many case studies with chronological structures

80). These propositions instruct researchers on how to collect data and tend to have an imbalance between the introduction and the current sit-

provide analytic priorities (Cavaye, 1996; Chetty, 1996; Yin, 2014). This uation in the case study. Thus, to correct the disproportionate attention,

helps researchers to modify a theory based on the tested propositions we designed the case study using both backward and forward sequences

(Cavaye, 1996). of events (Yin, 2014).

18 20

Triangulation is one of the strategies for establishing the veracity Kurtosis is a measure of the distribution shape (DeCarlo, 1997), which

of qualitative research conclusions; following Creswell (2013, p. 251), helps scholars measure budget punctuation (Breunig & Koski, 2006; True

this can be conducted by using “multiple and different sources, methods, et al., 1999). This has two forms: platykurtosis, which denotes light tails

investigators, and theories to provide corroborating evidence” (Ely et al., and flatness in the center, and leptokurtosis, which indicates fat tails,

1991; Erlandson et al., 1993; Glesne & Peshkin, 1992; Lincoln & Guba, sharp central peaks, and “weak shoulders” (Breunig & Koski, 2006, p. 372).

Please cite this article in press as: K.W. Cho and K Jung. Illuminating the Sewol Ferry Disaster using the institutional model

of punctuated equilibrium theory. The Social Science Journal (2019), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.12.010

G Model

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3.2. Demonstration of punctuated policy change: Google However, we assumed that Ngram has a critical limitation

Trends as attention observation due to the delay between the time required to publish a

23

book and the activities covered. In contrast, Google Trends

Many scholars have struggled to measure punctuated captures the real-time change of cultural penetration. It

24

policy change (Robinson et al., 2014) but have devel- measures attention with query index searches and men-

oped alternative ways to measure it (Jones et al., 2003). tions on websites using Google Trends and provides a

Based on Jones, Sulkin, and Larsen (2003) and Fowler time-series index which is normalized and customized by

et al. (2017), we can categorize two ways to demon- region, state, and metropolitan area for several countries

strate punctuation: through budgets (public budgeting and (Choi & Varian, 2012). Thus, this study employed punctu-

outlays), which have been used frequently, and through ated changes in Google Trends as well as budgets, media

attention (word frequency in books (Fowler et al., 2017), attention, and newspaper coverage, to observe the Sewol

asset markets, elections, media coverage, hearings, cov- Ferry Disaster and PET.

erage of lawmaking, and executive orders), which have

been used sporadically in the social sciences. First, changes 4. Results: application of the institutional model of

in budget (Breunig & Koski, 2006; Flink, 2017; Hegelich, punctuated equilibrium theory

2017; Hegelich et al., 2015; Kwon et al., 2013; Kim, 2012;

Mortensen, 2005; Robinson, 2004; Robinson et al., 2007; 4.1. Pre-disaster

Robinson et al., 2014; Yoo, 2007a, 2007b) are examined to

observe the changes in the policy process (Robinson et al., Since the late 1980s, South Korea has become a

2014). Budgets respond to endogenous and exogenous democratic and pluralistic society (Lee & Glasure, 2007),

forces such as bureaucratic regularity, subsystem poli- pluralistic society with a multiparty system and many

tics, public attention, innovative information, and changes interest groups and is susceptible to small and large punc-

to the decision-making structures of political institutions tuations in policy. Confucian culture, a key part of Korean

(Baumgartner et al., 2014). Budgets can be considered mea- culture, emphasizes inter-personal relationships and faith-

sures of issue importance and policy process outcomes fulness (Kim, 2010). Furthermore, based on Confucianism,

(Breunig & Koski, 2006; Goggin et al., 1990). Many PET Koreans had a tendency to consider the roles of King, father,

studies have been conducted on the agenda-based model and teacher as one ( ), meaning that the King, or

of governmental budgeting (Jones & Baumgartner 2005a; president, is still imbued with powerful, although modestly

Jones et al., 1998; Jones et al., 2003; Jones et al., 2009; diminished, status (Cho, 2017). Before its democratization

25

Robinson et al., 2014; True, 2000) and on changes in gov- in 1987, Korea’s authoritarian government had facilitated

ernment expenditure (Han, 2012). citizens’ distrust in the government by suppressing their

An alternative means of observing policy change is opinions and rights despite their contribution to the rapid

measuring the amount of attention received, although it development of the Korean economy. This still remains and

is not typically used without consensus except in the continues.

examination of budgets. Baumgartner and Jones (2009) Due to a well-developed news media, small issues are

21

suggest that a shift in attention can create positive feed- now able to quickly spread to the public with unprece-

back. Many methods have been used to measure attention, dented speed. Elected officials attempt to reflect the

including those involving press coverage (Baumgartner opinion of their constituents but tend to redirect blame or

et al., 2014), newspaper coverage (John, 2006), court deci- resolve problems to get reelected. Strategies for redirect-

sions (Kim & Lee, 2014; Robinson, 2013; Wood, 2006),

word frequency as a measure of cultural penetration in

the literature (Fowler et al., 2017), speeches (John &

centuries and the patterns of historians’ attention (Bohannon, 2010). This

Jennings, 2010), and congressional hearings and presiden- field was named “culturomics” (Bohannon, 2010, p. 1600; Michel et al.,

2011, p. 1).

tial speeches (Hegelich et al., 2015). Fowler et al. (2017)

23

Google Trends are “A time series index of the volume of queries users

attempted to measure attention from “the written culture”

22 enter into Google in a given geographic area” (Choi & Varian, 2012, p.

(p. 564) using Ngram to measure the frequency of words.

3). Thus, this study reveals a change in the attention of “the written cul-

ture” (Fowler et al., 2017) via Google Trends, which is useful in predicting

phenomena (Matias et al., 2009). However, the results may vary slightly,

depending on the day (Choi & Varian, 2012). Google Trends provides data

21

Cho (2009) redefined punctuated disequilibrium as a continuous from 2004 (Google Trends, 2018; Leonhardt, 2006).

24

grievance and argued in favor of a new policy and a punctuated equilib- “The query index is based on query share: the total query volume for

rium with stable implementation. This theory is useful in understanding the search term in question” (Choi & Varian, 2012, p. 2).

25

how certain policy systems change drastically following periods of relative Furthermore, Korea’s top-down bureaucratic system was estab-

policy stability (Baumgartner & Jones, 1991). lished and centralized over a thousand years ago. Although some

22

“The American English Ngram Database was then utilized to calculate anti-authoritarian government riots or movements have taken place, the

the annual cultural presence or frequency of each term” (Fowler et al., status of the president is stronger than that of the president in the U.S.

2017, p. 564). Ngram, a strong tool in social science (Fowler et al., 2017), Thus, citizens’ dependency on – and even blame of – the central govern-

is a kind of database or “a map of the context and frequency of words across ment are deeply rooted historically and culturally, and this is reflected in

history” (Bohannon, 2010, p. 1600). Ngram data allow people to quantify the ways that Korea confronts problems and disasters. Based on this his-

unquantifiable concepts and enable a sophisticated analysis of longitudi- tory, politics, and culture, Korean citizens tend to seek solutions from the

nal change (Fowler et al., 2017). The Google Books Project has digitized central government whenever they confront problematic situations. Thus,

15 million books, approximately 12% of all books published since the first the NPOs tend to depend on the government rather than partnerships

Bible printed by Gutenberg in 1450 (Bohannon, 2010; Michel et al., 2011), (Park, 1999).In response, the central government reacts to the pressure

and has been used to measure cultural influences on individuals across the and makes an effort to resolve each problem.

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27

Fig. 1. The Number of Newspaper Editorials per Week (Liberal vs. Conservative).

ing blame in South Korea include small- and medium-scale already anticipated and planned a reduction in the disaster-

or one-time, short-term policy changes, such as forcing related budget in 2014 according to the 2013 estimation

26

the prime minister to resign, reorganizing or creating (Choi, 2014). This reflects a general lack of government

new government agencies, increasing budgets, and cre- concern over disasters.

ating special acts. The South Korean government and its

citizens are accustomed to experiencing punctuated pol-

4.2. Post-disaster: institutional change

icy changes, not only within five years but also prior to

that. Usually, only a small number of bureaucrats and politi-

The Sewol Ferry Disaster altered the public’s attention

cians care about disaster-related issues and citizens remain

and spurred policy changes. The government’s poorly-

unconcerned. The national government established the

performed rescue operations led to requests from citizens

National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) under

to establish new policies and an increase in the public’s

the Ministry of Government Administration and Home

attention to disaster prevention and response. Most vic-

Affairs in 2004. The Hebei Spirit Oil Spill accident occurred

tims were students from Danwon-gu, a poor area in Ansan

on December 7, 2007, when a crude carrier, Hebei Spirit,

in the Gyeonggi Province. News media and political groups

spilled oil following a collision at sea with a crane. To

drew attention to and critiqued the government’s response

deal with this accident, a “Special Act enacted for the

to the disaster. News via the Internet and social media also

Hebei Spirit oil spill incident” (Doopedia, 2016) was enacted

played a significant role in this regard. Figs. 1 and 2 reveal

into law as a tool to deal with a specific visible dis-

a clear trend line of domestic and international atten-

aster by providing monetary compensation for damage

tion to the Sewol Ferry in which the disaster increased

caused by the pollution (Moon, 2008). When President Park

grievances and stimulated arguments for a new policy. As

started her administration in March 2013, her administra-

shown in Fig. 3, the analysis results, using longitudinal sur-

tion created and reorganized the Ministry of Security and

vey data collected between January and August 2014 (i.e.,

Public Administration (MOSPA). By placing “security” at

respectively four months before and after the Sewol Ferry

the beginning of the agency’s name, President Park sug-

Disaster) show that citizens’ risk perception was dramati-

gested that the government was committed to the safety

cally increased from 50.79 to 56.22 out of a total possible

of South Korean citizens (Chae, 2014a). The Korean Coast

score of 100.

Guard (KCG) which is under the Ministry of Oceans and

Fisheries, was evaluated as a superior disaster agency (Lee,

4.2.0. Image and venue of the Sewol Ferry disaster

2015) right before the Sewol Ferry Disaster. The regime

Due to the images of student victims and the capsized

tried to convince citizens of its positive status of agencies

Sewol Ferry which were the result of a poorly perform-

that protect the people. Furthermore, the government had

ing government, the Sewol Ferry Disaster drew attention

from citizens and shifted the issue from a policy sub-

system of the marine industry and government to the

26

Because it is not easy for a president to resign during his or her term, macro-political area. Unlike the previous policy changes

the prime minister, as the second chief of the executive branch, tends to

that had resulted from disaster experiences, the Sewol

resign instead.

27 Ferry Disaster resulted in vast policy changes, allowing

Usually, there are three editorials per day. The data indicate the num-

many stakeholders to participate and fostering the collapse

ber of editorials that mentioned “Sewol Ferry” more than once in their

editorials. of an image.

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of punctuated equilibrium theory. The Social Science Journal (2019), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.12.010

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Fig. 2. Google Trends for “Sewol Ferry” Searches.

Fig. 3. Changes in Citizens’ Risk Perception before and after the Sewol Ferry Disaster.

Regarding venues, the impact of the Sewol Ferry Dis- Similarly, many high schools canceled or postponed their

aster was contagious, not only for the stakeholders in school excursions. The Korea Institute of Finance pre-

the subsystem that were directly involved in the acci- dicted that the growth rate decreased by 0.1%, reflecting

dent but also for the national culture in a macro-political condolences toward the Sewol victims (Lee, 2014; Oh,

setting. For instance, ruling and opposing party politi- 2014).

28

cians drafted more than 253 bills (Jung, 2015). Due to Consequently, the image of a safe South Korea was

the Sewol Ferry Disaster, the national mood became so no longer held by the majority of the population. Pol-

depressed that people and government employees cut back icy monopolies collapsed. The capsized Sewol Ferry and

their spending on consumption of leisure and recreation, reported failures of the KCG countered the prevailing

apparently as a grieving response to the deceased students images of safety, such as the MOSPA and the previously

and victims. Public agencies and even private companies well-regarded KCG. As the disaster response crawled for-

tended to curtail, cancel, or postpone their ceremonies. ward, an increasing number of citizens demanded an

improved safety and disaster policy. Most media outlets

dedicated time to broadcasting the disaster and presented

allegations of corruption between the marine industry

28

After the Sewol Ferry Disaster, politicians drafted more than 253

and bureaucrats in the process. Bolstered by the opposing

bills. These bills were incorporated into 11 acts concerning topics such

party, citizens asked the ruling regime to build a system

as school safety, the marine industry, train transportation, and govern-

ment employee ethical codes. However, some of these represented the to prevent similar disasters. A few members of the radical

activities of attention-seeking representatives. Ultimately, 156 overlap- populace even asked for the impeachment of the president

ping bills were discarded, and 86 bills remained as of April 16, 2015 (Jung,

(Lee et al., 2014). These responses exemplify how exter-

2015).

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of punctuated equilibrium theory. The Social Science Journal (2019), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.12.010

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Fig. 4. Change in Budget for Public Order and Safety.

nal events disrupt political systems and cause punctuated of change (negative feedback), was converted to positive

equilibrium. Public concern fueled changes at all levels of feedback dynamics.

policymaking and budgeting because the entire social and Meanwhile, President Park requested the arrest of the

political system was forced to respond to the event. This ferry’s owner, Mr. Yoo Byung-eun. Before the accident, Yoo

required the government to admit their poorly-performed Byung-eun had arranged for the ferry to be remodeled,

rescue operations (Park, 2014) and to act to resolve prob- and this presumably contributed to the overloading that

lems and improve its performance. Furthermore, many civil sunk the ship. The government also needed to reimburse

society organizations and the families of victims raised the costs of the rescue mission and sought to collect the

this issue and found support in the opposing party, facil- costs from Mr. Yoo. Police and other people had tried to

itating policy change in the form of positive feedback. find him through a national search, but Yoo was found

Conflicts continued between political parties regarding the dead (Kim, 2014). In the end, chasing Mr. Yoo backfired. As

creation of the Sewol Special Act. The following sequence of such, a conversion to positive feedback for policy change

accustomed events were implemented: forcing the prime transpired.

minister to resign, reorganizing or creating new govern-

ment agencies, increasing budgets, and creating special

4.2.2. Dismantling KCG: positive feedback

acts.

President Park announced that the KCG would be dis-

mantled. The KCG was not successful in rescuing the

4.2.1. Prime Minister Chung resigns and chasing Mr. Yoo: victims. There were many accusations leveled at the KCG.

from negative to positive feedback On May 19, 2014, six weeks after the disaster, amid the

The ruling regime attempted to find a person responsi- public denunciation of the KCG, President Park announced

ble for the accident to avoid blame using the resignation of that she would dismantle the KCG and create a new Min-

Prime Minister Chung on April 27, 2014. Many criticized istry of Public Safety and Security (MPSS), which merged

the regime and queried whether the next prime minis- part of the KCG and the NEMA (Chairman of the Security

30

ter had the capacity and ethical prerequisites required for and Public Administration Committee, 2014). The gov-

the role. Prime Minister Chung responded to these accusa- ernment’s intention to facilitate change by dismantling and

tions by resigning three weeks after the disaster. President reorganizing the KCG can be seen as an example of positive

Park searched for an alternative prime minister. Both Mr. feedback because it helped expedite change and stabilize

Ahn, the first alternative, and Mr. Moon, the second alterna- the equilibrium.

29

tive, were criticized by their constituents and the media.

Thus, neither of the regime’s candidates were appointed,

4.2.3. Creation of the commission for national

which increased the distrust in the regime. Consequently,

investigation of the Sewol Ferry: positive feedback

interest groups, the news media, and many citizens crit-

On May 29, 2014, one week before the local elections,

icized the regime. Ultimately, Prime Minister Chung was

the ruling and opposing parties decided to create a com-

reassigned to his former position and reinstated on June

mission to investigate the cause of the disaster (Park et al.,

26, 2014. As such, the regional accident moved into the

2014). The ruling party politicians accepted the change

national political arena. However, the resignation of Prime

and agreed to create a special commission for a national

Minister Chung, resulting from regimes’ discouragement

investigation to investigate the cause of the disaster. This

can be seen as another example of positive feedback, as it

prompted an investigation of the cause of the disaster and

29

It was alleged that Mr. Ahn was overpaid (Chae, 2014c) after leav-

facilitated change.

ing his official job as a Supreme Court judge and was considered corrupt

among Korean citizens and the media. Meanwhile, Mr. Moon sabotaged

his own appointment by making overly religious statements during his

30

speech at a service. He said, in the name of Jesus, Korea deserved to Owever, some critics suggested that the dismantling of the KGC and

be colonized by Japan to remedy Korea’s ignorance and laziness (Chae, the creation of the MPSS would not be successful because it did not fix

2014b). any of the fundamental problems that led to the Sewol Ferry Disaster.

Please cite this article in press as: K.W. Cho and K Jung. Illuminating the Sewol Ferry Disaster using the institutional model

of punctuated equilibrium theory. The Social Science Journal (2019), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.12.010

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4.2.4. Increasing budget and creating other acts: positive mised by naming the acts considered together as the Three

feedback Sewol Acts on October 31. The National Assembly passed

The Sewol Ferry Disaster stimulated changes in public the Three Sewol Acts on November 7, 2014. After 19 days,

policy and disaster-related budgets as other major shifts the acts were announced by the president. As shown in

spread throughout the entire social and political system Figs. 1 and 2, after the Three Sewol Acts, fewer arguments

(Baumgartner et al., 2014). Multiple national and local about the Sewol Ferry Disaster appeared in newspaper out-

autonomous government bodies increased their safety- lets. This can be seen as positive feedback because the Three

related budgets after the disaster (Baek, 2016; MPSS, 2015). Sewol Acts were passed and led to policy changes that were

For example, at the national level, after the 2014 Sewol a response to continuous grievances, which resulted in a

Ferry Disaster, the budget for public order and safety saw new policy of punctuated disequilibrium.

its largest increase in seven years at 7.583% (See Fig. 4).

This was the largest increase in the budget for public order 4.2.6. End of the retrieving bodies mission and

and safety since 2008, with the exception of the public establishing MPSS: negative feedback

order budget; the portions of the budget focused on safety Negative feedback was reestablished after the coun-

saw an increase of 17.9% in September 2014. Consider- try had reached a saturation point (Baumgartner & Jones,

ing that the disaster-related budget was targeted for a 1993). After passing the Three Sewol Acts, the national gov-

decrease before the disaster (Choi, 2014), this means that ernment concluded rescue operations on November 11,

there was a large disruption in the safety budget after the 2014, and created the new MPSS (Ha, 2016). The MPSS was

31

Sewol Ferry disaster. This punctuation was contagious, a merger of the NEMA and KCG, which took place the fol-

and many other governments increased budgets relating to lowing week on November 19. This provided a new image

safety issues. At the local level, the safety budget of the local of policy stability for the government to present to the peo-

government of education was increased in July 2014 (Baek, ple. Passing the Three Sewol Acts and finishing the recovery

2016). The Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries increased their mission took on the effect of negative, deviation-reducing

budget in December 2014. These actions proved that abrupt feedback.

changes were made at multiple levels of government pol-

icy, including the 230 safety, marine, and ship-relevant 4.2.7. After the Sewol Ferry Disaster

acts proposed by representatives (Cho, 2015). These bud- After the Sewol Ferry Disaster and upon reaching stabil-

get increases and the growing number of laws in multiple ity, the Koreans overcame their experience with disruption

government bodies and venues can be seen as a form of and established a new safety culture that spread to the

positive feedback. emergency management system and other institutions

(Chae, 2017b). Due to the Sewol Ferry Disaster, people’s

trust in the government decreased. For instance, people did

4.2.5. Three Sewol Acts: positive feedback

not follow the announcement to stay on but move out of

Of the many acts created because of the Sewol Ferry

the subway after the Sewol Ferry Disaster because a large

event, the Three Sewol Acts were the most highlighted and

number of students died following the crew’s announce-

controversial acts. After the accident, more stakeholders

ment to stay on the ship during the Sewol Ferry Disaster

and people became involved in policy issues; the domi-

(Shin, 2014). Since then, although the impact of the issue

nant coalition could not maintain control and new actors

has lessened, more emphasis and interest have been placed

pushed the issue to the macro-political stage. Until the end

on safety issues and the support of a safety culture, even

of September 2014, there were long debates about how

though more people distrust the government due to its

to establish a special investigation commission among the

poor performance. The Sewol Ferry Disaster shattered the

ruling party, the opposing party, various interest groups,

image of a crisis-free Korea, which led to policy venue shifts

and the progressive populace. After the end of September

that were reflected in politics on the national level. Fur-

2014, both parties began negotiating the legal issues of the

thermore, while implementing the Sewol Special Act and

other two acts’ (the Government Organization Act and the

investigating the Sewol Ferry Disaster, the following issues

Yoo Byung-eun Act) as well. The ruling party suggested that

emerged with incremental changes that were made.

the opposing party bind the three bills (Kim et al., 2014).

The ruling and opposing parties started a task force to pass

4.3. Discussion: implications of PET

the three bills together because they were all related to the

ferry disaster.

The Sewol Ferry Disaster is a good case for observing the

After long and tedious debates about the Sewol Spe-

32 generalizability of PET in countries outside of the United

cial Act, the Government Organization Act, and the Yoo

States. Applying PET to the Sewol Ferry Disaster renders a

Byung-eun Act, both the ruling and opposing party compro-

description of the Sewol accident viable. A comparison of

the expected outcome of the theoretical proposition and

31 what was observed yields a suggestion for modifying PET,

This represented a substantial punctuation in the safety budget.

Compared with the thresholds suggested in previous studies, such as as Cavaye (1996) argued. We suggest that there is gener-

±

Wildavsky’s (1984) criterion of 10% and Kemp’s (1982) criterion of 10%, ally less negative feedback to retain system stability. As Cho

this 17.9% increase can be seen as a punctuated condition.

(2009) stated, unlike in the United States, ongoing debates

32

This act confirmed the establishment of the Special Investigation Com-

about the ferry still exist four years after the disaster in

mission on the 4/16 Sewol Ferry Disaster for one year, with 17 members,

South Korea. However, the debates are also related to the

including five standing members who could extend their activity for six

months (Cho, 2014). implementation of the Sewol Special Act. Unlike Hurri-

Please cite this article in press as: K.W. Cho and K Jung. Illuminating the Sewol Ferry Disaster using the institutional model

of punctuated equilibrium theory. The Social Science Journal (2019), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.12.010

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33 34

Fig. 5. Comparison of Google Trends regarding “Sewol Ferry,” “Hurricane Katrina,” and “Hurricane Sandy” Searches.

Table 2

Normality Tests of Event Attention Data from Google Trends.

Events Kurtosis Pr(Skewness) Pr(Kurtosis) Shapiro-Wilk test p <

Sewol Ferry 36.501 0.000 0.000 0.378 0.000

2007 South Korea Oil Spill 21.237 0.000 0.000 0.592 0.000

BP Oil Spill 27.402 0.000 0.000 0.318 0.000

Costa Concordia 43.951 0.000 0.000 0.261 0.000

Hurricane Katrina 38.563 0.000 0.000 0.284 0.000

Hurricane Sandy 49.375 0.000 0.000 0.229 0.000

Bridge Collapse Minnesota 56.321 0.000 0.000 0.169 0.000

We transformed the < 1 values from Google Trends into 0.99. The Shapiro-Wilk test is one of the powerful tests to assess normality distribution (Breunig

& Koski, 2006).

cane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy in the United States, the it took more time to achieve stability than the Deepwater

37 38

Sewol Ferry Disaster required more time to reach stability Horizon Oil Spill. As we can see in the above figures,

in South Korea (See Fig. 5). compared to the red line, which tracks South Korean atten-

If we tried to compare a case between a Western event tion, the other lines show that the other events took more

and the Sewol Ferry, the events would not fully match time to regain stability.

and would be impossible to compare. Therefore, in addi- As institutional characteristics are significant factors

tion to Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy in Fig. 5, in the punctuation process (Robinson et al., 2014), coun-

we compared other disasters (including natural and man- tries with more stable political and economic institutions

made disasters) for better consistency. Fig. 6 shows that the might be able to bounce back faster. The political system

Sewol Ferry Disaster required more time to reach stability in the United States has many longstanding stakeholders

compared to a similar accidental marine disaster involv- that facilitate the rapid spread of policy, even if they some-

35

ing the Costa Concordia and a disaster involving a bridge, times prevent change. Vested interests in South Korea are

36

the Minnesota Bridge Collapse. To compare similar cases, not as stable as those in the United States because the

even though they were not the same as a ferry disaster, the U.S. political system has many longstanding stakeholders

South Korean Oil Spill case in 2007 (Fig. 7) showed that (vested power, policy subsystems, etc.), which could be

a barrier to initiating new changes but could also facili-

tate fast policy spread (Cho, 2009). For instance, although

33 the Korean government announced the presumed causes

We compared the Sewol Ferry Disaster with “Hurricane Katrina” and

“Hurricane Sandy” using Google Trends because the impact and influence of the disaster, some citizens did not trust their reports.

of the events (Sewol Ferry, Hurricane Katrina, and Hurricane Sandy) are An anonymous source on the Internet using the alias Zaro

comparable.

declared a submarine collision to be the cause of the dis-

34

The data were retrieved and collected from Google Trends on

December, 15, 2017.

35

The Costa Concordia disaster happened on January 13, 2012, resulting

37

in 32 deaths and 64 serious injuries. The Costa Concordia cruise ship came The Deepwater Horizon oil spill of 2010, also named the Gulf of Mexico

too far inland and wrecked due to human error that involved a lack of Oil Spill of 2010, killed 11 and injured 17 workers (Pallardy, 2018). This

alertness and compliance failure (BBC, 2015; Safety4Sea, 2018). was the petroleum industry’s largest oil spill in a marine environment,

36

The Minnesota Bridge Collapse happened on August 1, 2007, without which leaked 4,900,000 barrels of oil (Czartoryski, 2011; Pallardy, 2018).

38

warning during the evening rush hour, causing the deaths of 13 people All the aforementioned events show a leptokurtic distribution of

and 145 injuries (Karnowski, 2017; Klobuchar, 2017). attention (See Table 2).

Please cite this article in press as: K.W. Cho and K Jung. Illuminating the Sewol Ferry Disaster using the institutional model

of punctuated equilibrium theory. The Social Science Journal (2019), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.12.010

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Ferry Disaster, concerns about the implementation of the

Three Sewol Acts continued even after the acts were passed.

These ideas that emerged from the tested propositions can

be used to modify the original theory following the case

study findings (Cavaye, 1996) and should affect the results

of future studies. Ultimately, this new anomaly of insta-

bility in the PET should be examined more thoroughly in

future studies.

5. Conclusion

Using the Sewol Ferry Disaster, the PET institutional

model was applied in South Korea. We illustrated how a

political system reacts and changes policy and simulta-

neously demonstrated how the disaster led to the Three

Sewol Acts. The ferry disaster led to substantial changes in

safety culture related to public policy and disaster-related

budgets and organizations in South Korea. Furthermore,

by employing Google Trends, and data related to bud-

gets and newspaper attention, we contributed to helping

other researchers visualize punctuation. Ultimately, we

illustrated the deviation of the Korean context, which is

Fig. 6. Comparison of Google Trends Regarding Searches for the “Sewol characterized by fewer instances of negative feedback than

Ferry” versus “Hurricane Katrina,” “Costa Concordia,” and the “Bridge Col-

were found than was revealed in the US based on the

lapse in Minnesota”. (The data were retrieved and collected from Google

original PET model. However, this does not reduce PET’s

Trends on July, 27, 2018.)

applicability to the South Korean situation.

In summary, the policy monopoly of incremental

change, which was widely accepted as a supportive image

for safety, collapsed after the Sewol Ferry Disaster. The

South Korea political system had experienced a punctuat-

ing event. Before the Sewol Ferry Disaster, few actors in the

policy monopoly were concerned about the marine indus-

try and safety issues. However, the Sewol Ferry Disaster,

which fostered an image of a poorly-performing govern-

ment, allowed the policy monopoly to collapse and fostered

the shift of a subsystem problem to a macro-political envi-

ronment, followed by contagious positive feedback across

multiple venues. After the Sewol Ferry Disaster, the rul-

ing party tried to suppress the policy change with negative

feedback (e.g., through the resignation of the prime min-

ister and by chasing Mr. Yoo), but this changed to positive

feedback. Following the dismantling of the KCG, the cre-

ation of the commission for national investigation, the

budget increase, and other acts, the debate between the

ruling and opposing party increased attention to possi-

ble policy changes and resulted in the passage of the

Three Sewol Acts. Then, the South Korean political sys-

Fig. 7. Comparison of Google Trends Regarding Searches for the “South tem again reached stability. After passing the Three Sewol

Korea Oil Spill” versus the “Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill”. (The data were

Acts, ending the mission, and establishing MPSS, the need

retrieved and collected from Google Trends on July, 27, 2018.)

for change was perceived as less urgent, but was not

completely ameliorated. This change appeared like that

aster. This contradicted the official explanations, such as predicted by the institutional model of punctuated pol-

overloading, incorrect freight binding, the ship’s decreased icy change: endemic and random change occurring from

restoration force, and mistakes in steering. Zaro appeared in mismanagement and contagious punctuation and multi-

the form of a documentary (Chae, 2017a). Many unproven ple venues (Robinson et al., 2014). In the end, the Sewol

Internet rumors were circulated about the sunken ship. Ferry Disaster transformed the relevant culture on safety

Even excluding the factors that caused the Sewol Ferry to (Chae, 2017b). Furthermore, a finding of this study is that

sink, some citizens still raise issues about the government’s a modification of PET punctuation takes more time to

weak implementation of the Sewol Special Act and ques- reach stabilization in the South Korean context due to less

tion the cause of the disaster. Although they did not attract negative feedback. This finding could be applied to other

as much attention as events immediately after the Sewol societies or situations (Fig. 8).

Please cite this article in press as: K.W. Cho and K Jung. Illuminating the Sewol Ferry Disaster using the institutional model

of punctuated equilibrium theory. The Social Science Journal (2019), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.12.010

G Model

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K.W. Cho and K Jung / The Social Science Journal xxx (2019) xxx–xxx 13

Fig. 8. Diagram of the Institutional Model of Punctuated Equilibrium Theory as it Relates to the Sewol Ferry Disaster.

Despite the implications, this study has limitations. It Acknowledgments

is difficult to objectively distinguish whether specific sys-

tem feedback dynamics amplify or reduce deviation and We appreciate the anonymous reviewers who offered

change when confronting political debate following a dis- us valuable comments during the process of completing

aster. Thus, a future study could be conducted utilizing a this article. We also would like to express our gratitude

sentiment analysis of media that might provide some evi- to professors Ralph Brower, Keon-Hyung Lee, and Frances

dence regarding the ways a political system responds to Berry at the Florida State University as well as our friends

different forms of feedback (Cho, 2017), but doing so is professor Misun Song at the Valdosta State Uviversity, Dr.

beyond the scope of the present study. Suk Joon Hwang, and Gook Jin Kim who provided advise

Ultimately, this study cannot guarantee the generaliz- and guidance for this article. We also appreciate the sup-

ability of its findings. Thus, future researchers could also port from Brain Korea 21 Plus in the Department of Public

apply this institutional model for the study of punctuated Administration at the Korea University. After the accep-

policy change to other countries and analyze how and why tance, this article was presented at the Winter Conference

negative and positive feedback is generated by a given of the 2019 the Korean Association for the Immigration Pol-

country’s efforts to stabilize. Using Google Trends, schol- icy and Administration. This study is developed from the

ars can determine why and how people’s attention varies doctoral dissertation of the first author, Ki Woong Cho (Cho,

before and after a particular punctuation event, depend- 2017).

ing on the situation and cultural context. A future study

could differentiate how much time is required to stabi-

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