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Ipv6 Deployment – Ipv4 Lifetime Exhaustion Sooner Than Expected?

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Ipv6 Deployment – Ipv4 Lifetime Exhaustion Sooner Than Expected? IPv6 Deployment – IPv4 lifetime Exhaustion sooner than expected? Tony Hain Cisco Systems - Technical Leader IPv6 Forum Fellow [email protected] Session Number Presentation_ID © 2003 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 Distribution of IPv4 addresses by /8 Central 93 ARIN 23 RIPE NCC 19 APNIC 16 LACNIC 4 AfriNIC 1 Defined 4 Multicast 16 Experimental 16 IANA - Pool 25% remaining 64 0 102030405060708090100 IANA allocated 22 /8’s between Jan. 1, 2004 and Jul. 1, 2005 Presentation_ID © 2003 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 222 Allocation of IPv4 /8 blocks per month by IANA 7 6 5 IANA Allocations to RIR's 4 Raw /8 allocations per month 3 2 1 Presentation_ID 0 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 © 2003 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 333 Allocation of IPv4 /8 blocks per month by IANA IANA Allocations to RIR's Sliding-window 6 month geo-mean scale normalized to current 1 per month 2.50000 2.00000 1.50000 1.00000 0.50000 0.00000 Sep-95 Sep-96 Sep-97 Sep-98 Sep-99 Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Presentation_ID © 2003 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 444 Allocation of IPv4 /8 blocks per month by IANA 2.75 3 2.5 2.25 IANA Allocations to RIR's 1.75 2 Sliding-window 12 month average 1.5 1.25 0.75 1 0.5 0.25 0 Presentation_ID Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 © 2003 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 555 Allocation of IPv4 /8 blocks per month by IANA 2.75 3 2.5 2.25 IANA Allocations to RIR's Sliding-window 24 month average 1.75 2 1.5 1.25 0.75 1 0.5 0.25 0 Presentation_ID Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 © 2003 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 666 Observations • A flat rate of .75 /8 per month applied to the remaining pool of 64 lasts 7.1 years. • A flat rate of 1 /8 per month applied to the remaining pool of 64 lasts 5.3 years. • A compound consumption growth rate depends on the compounding factor. Presentation_ID © 2003 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 777 IPv4 lifetime projections IPv4 lifetime projections Poly Expon Expon Linear 5yr 5yr 10 yr 10 yr 256 224 192 IPv4 lifetime projection 160 non-linear nature of raw data 128 192 176 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 160Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21 144 128 112 -95 -99 -03 -07 -11 an an an an an J Jan-97 J Jan-01 J Jan-05 J Jan-09 J Presentation_ID © 2003 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 888 Pool exhaustion IPv4 /8 pool 256 224 192 160 128 96 64 32 0 Sep-81 Sep-84 Sep-87 Sep-90 Sep-93 Sep-96 Sep-99 Sep-02 Sep-05 Sep-08 Sep-11 Full discussion at: www.cisco.com/ipj The Internet Protocol Journal Volume 8, Number 3, September 2005 Presentation_ID © 2003 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 999 Another perspective IPv4 /8 pool - projection from Jan. 2003 256 224 192 160 128 96 64 32 0 Sep-81 Sep-84 Sep-87 Sep-90 Sep-93 Sep-96 Sep-99 Sep-02 Sep-05 Sep-08 Sep-11 Presentation_ID © 2003 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 101010 Summing it up 256 224 192 160 128 96 64 32 0 Presentation_ID Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 © 2003 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 111111.
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