IPv6 Deployment – IPv4 lifetime Exhaustion sooner than expected?
Tony Hain Cisco Systems - Technical Leader IPv6 Forum Fellow [email protected]
Session Number Presentation_ID © 2003 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 1 Distribution of IPv4 addresses by /8
Central 93
ARIN 23
RIPE NCC 19
APNIC 16
LACNIC 4
AfriNIC 1
Defined 4
Multicast 16
Experimental 16
IANA - Pool 25% remaining 64
0 102030405060708090100
IANA allocated 22 /8’s between Jan. 1, 2004 and Jul. 1, 2005
Presentation_ID © 2003 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 222 Allocation of IPv4 /8 blocks per month by IANA
IANA Allocations to RIR's Raw /8 allocations per month
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
5 6 7 8 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 -9 -9 -9 n-0 -0 -0 -0 -0 an an an a an an an J Jan- J J Jan- Jan-00 Jan- Jan- J Jan Jan- J J Jan- J
Presentation_ID © 2003 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 333 Allocation of IPv4 /8 blocks per month by IANA
IANA Allocations to RIR's Sliding-window 6 month geo-mean scale normalized to current 1 per month
2.50000
2.00000
1.50000
1.00000
0.50000
0.00000 Sep-95 Sep-96 Sep-97 Sep-98 Sep-99 Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06
Presentation_ID © 2003 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 444 Allocation of IPv4 /8 blocks per month by IANA
IANA Allocations to RIR's Sliding-window 12 month average
3 2.75 2.5 2.25 2 1.75 1.5 1.25 1 0.75 0.5 0.25 0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 n- n- n- n- n- n- n- n- n- n- n- n- n- n- n- Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja
Presentation_ID © 2003 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 555 Allocation of IPv4 /8 blocks per month by IANA
IANA Allocations to RIR's Sliding-window 24 month average
3 2.75 2.5 2.25 2 1.75 1.5 1.25 1 0.75 0.5 0.25 0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 n- n- n- n- n- n- n- n- n- n- n- n- n- n- n- Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja
Presentation_ID © 2003 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 666 Observations
• A flat rate of .75 /8 per month applied to the remaining pool of 64 lasts 7.1 years. • A flat rate of 1 /8 per month applied to the remaining pool of 64 lasts 5.3 years. • A compound consumption growth rate depends on the compounding factor.
Presentation_ID © 2003 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 777 IPv4 lifetime projections
IPv4 lifetime projections Poly Expon Expon Linear 256 5yr 5yr 10 yr 10 yr
224
192
IPv4 lifetime projection 160 non-linear nature of raw data
192 128 176
Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 160 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-21
144
128
112
-95 -99 -03 -07 -11 an an an an an J Jan-97 J Jan-01 J Jan-05 J Jan-09 J
Presentation_ID © 2003 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 888 Pool exhaustion
IPv4 /8 pool
256 224
192 160
128 96
64 32 0 Sep-81 Sep-84 Sep-87 Sep-90 Sep-93 Sep-96 Sep-99 Sep-02 Sep-05 Sep-08 Sep-11
Full discussion at: www.cisco.com/ipj The Internet Protocol Journal Volume 8, Number 3, September 2005 Presentation_ID © 2003 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 999 Another perspective
IPv4 /8 pool - projection from Jan. 2003
256
224 192 160 128 96
64 32 0 Sep-81 Sep-84 Sep-87 Sep-90 Sep-93 Sep-96 Sep-99 Sep-02 Sep-05 Sep-08 Sep-11
Presentation_ID © 2003 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 101010 Summing it up
256
224
192
160
128
96
64
32
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -1 n n n n an an-0 an-0 an an-0 J Jan-0 J Ja Ja J J Jan-0 J Ja Ja
Presentation_ID © 2003 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 111111