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China Transportation Sector Industrials / China 9 July 2013 Time for bottom-fishing China Transportation Sector • We expect the market to remain volatile over the near term due to Positive (unchanged) uncertainty about the macroeconomic environment Neutral • We recommend accumulating stocks with resilient earnings prospects, especially those with a long-term growth story Negative • Out top picks are AviChina, TravelSky, BCIA, and SITC; we see short-term trading opportunities for CEA, CX, OOIL, and YTI How do we justify our view? Top picks: AviChina Industry & HKD4.20 (from HKD4.60) on cuts Technology (AviChina), to our earnings forecasts. Travelsky Technology (TST), Beijing Capital International We revise our six-month target Airport (BCIA) and SITC prices as follows: Air China (AC) to Kelvin Lau International (SITC). We believe HKD7.50 (from HKD8.00), CEA to (852) 2848 4467 AviChina will benefit the most HKD3.30 (from HKD4.10), CX to [email protected] from the opening up of China’s HKD16.50 (from HKD16.80), OOIL general aviation market. We raise to HKD61 (from HKD64), China Leo Siu our six-month target price to Shipping Container Lines (CSCL) to (852) 2773 8243 [email protected] HKD5.40 (from HKD5.30). HKD2.40 (from HKD2.70), and YTI to HKD4.45 (from HKD4.68). Major TST and BCIA should be the main risks to our calls include lower-than- ■ What's new beneficiaries of continued air-traffic expected demand growth and a With the stock market expected to volume rises, as they are not affected higher-than-expected fuel price. remain volatile over the near term, by declines in air fares or rises in the we recommend buying companies jet-fuel price. We raise our six-month ■ How we differ that we believe offer resilient target price for TST to HKD5.90 (from We are more bullish than the market earnings and a long-term growth HKD5.00). SITC should benefit on recoveries in passenger and cargo story. We also see short-term significantly from growth in demand traffic on the back of the better- trading opportunities for some for logistics services. We lower our six- than-expected capacity discipline, stocks. month target price marginally to and a rise in demand in 2H13E. We HKD3.20 (from HKD3.30). are among the few analysts covering ■ What's the impact AviChina, TST, and SITC. We believe China’s aviation market Short-term trades: China will continue to expand over 2013-15. Eastern Airlines (CEA), Cathay Pacific Airways (CX), Orient We forecast an air-traffic CAGR of Key stock calls 12% for the period, providing a strong Overseas International (OOIL) and Yuexiu Transport New Prev. revenue source for volume players. AviChina Industry & Technology (2357 HK) Infrastructure (YTI). We expect Rating Buy Buy In addition, we believe the general both CEA and CX to benefit from Target 5.40 5.30 aviation and logistics areas will an expected recovery in passenger Upside 36% continue to develop. The former is at traffic to Japan in 2H13. In the TravelSky Technology (696 HK) the first development stage, while shipping space, a near-term freight Rating Buy Buy earnings in the latter should be driven rate recovery would be positive for Target 5.90 5.00 by demand from manufacturing OOIL. YTI stands to benefit most Upside 16.8% activities moving to inland China. from the introduction of a toll-by- SITC International (1308 HK) Rating Buy Buy weight system in Guangdong. Target 3.20 3.30 ■ What we recommend Upside 18.5% We reiterate our Positive rating for We upgrade China Southern Airlines (CSA) to Buy (1) from Beijing Capital International Airport (694 HK) the China Transportation Sector. Rating Buy Buy Outperform (2), for its Target 5.40 5.40 undemanding-looking valuation. We Upside 12.5% lower our six-month target price to Source: Daiwa forecasts. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 62 China Transportation Sector 9 July 2013 Positive (unchanged) How do we justify our view? Neutral Growth outlook Negative Valuation Earnings revisions China Transportation Sector: net profit (% CAGR for 2012-15E) Growth outlook Among all the subsectors, we forecast airlines to record (USDm) n.a 38% 10% 10% 16% 35% the highest CAGR in net profit over 2012-15, of 38%, 1,200 followed by AviChina with a CAGR of 35%. We expect 1,000 many of the Asia shipping lines to just about break even for 2013. 800 600 Among the infrastructure stocks, we forecast the port 400 and airport companies we cover to record net-profit CAGRs of 10% for 2012-15, mainly on a recovery in 200 traffic volume. The earnings impact on the toll-road 0 operators of the toll-free policy over national holidays Shipping Airline Port & airport Toll road TST AviChina 2013E 2014E 2015E should be less in 2H13 than in 1H13, and we forecast a net-profit CAGR of 10% for the sector for 2012-15. Source: Daiwa forecasts Note: Earnings are on an adjusted basis Historical 12-month forward PBR and PER for transportation Valuation companies The airline and container-shipping stocks are trading (PBR x) (PER x) currently at average 12-month forward PBRs of 0.8x 3 40 and 0.9x, respectively, based on our BVPS forecasts, 30 much lower than their respective past-five-year averages 2 of 1.2x and 1.1x. We consider their current valuations to 20 be undemanding. 1 10 For the airlines, we apply 2013E PBRs of 1.0-1.4x, which 0 0 are at discounts of 0-30% to the 2010 industry average 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 of 1.4x, because we expect the industry to start to 2013E Airlines (LHS) Shipping (LHS) recover (as it did in 2010). For the same reason, we Toll road (RHS) Aviation related (RHS) apply discounts of 10-20% to the 2010 average PBRs of Port (RHS) the shipping lines, though we are concerned about Asia- Source: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Daiwa forecasts Europe trade. 2014 consensus net profit forecasts for shipping, port, aviation, Earnings revisions and toll road stocks The consensus 2014 earnings forecasts for the shipping (USDm) (USDm) companies and airlines have been on a downward trend, 6,300 1,000 especially since the 1H13 results. However, we expect 6,250 900 some companies, such as AviChina, SITC, TST, and CX, 800 6,200 to see YoY rises in earnings for 1H13. 700 6,150 600 We believe the negative impact of toll-free travel over 6,100 500 public holidays has been fully reflected in the consensus 6,050 400 2014 earnings forecasts for the toll-road companies. For Jul-12 Apr-13 Oct-12 Jun-13 Jun-12 Jan-13 the port operators, we expect only modest revisions to Mar-13 Feb-13 Aug-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 May-13 2014 consensus earnings forecasts. Shipping (LHS) Aviation (LHS) Toll road (RHS) Port (RHS) Source: Bloomberg Note: Earnings are on an adjusted basis - 2 - China Transportation Sector 9 July 2013 Sector stocks: key indicators EPS (local curr.) Share Rating Target price (local curr.) FY1 FY2 Company Name Stock code Price New Prev. New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg Air China 753 HK 5.29 Buy Buy 7.50 8.00 (6.3%) 0.436 0.520 (16.1%) 0.557 0.613 (9.1%) AviChina Industry & Technology 2357 HK 3.97 Buy Buy 5.40 5.30 1.9% 0.155 0.155 0.0% 0.199 0.199 0.0% Beijing Capital International Airport 694 HK 4.80 Buy Buy 5.40 5.40 0.0% 0.329 0.329 0.0% 0.400 0.400 0.0% Cathay Pacific Airways 293 HK 13.50 Buy Buy 16.50 16.80 (1.8%) 0.553 0.762 (27.5%) 1.045 1.243 (15.9%) China COSCO 1919 HK 3.26 Buy Buy 4.00 4.00 0.0% (0.200) (0.130) n.a. 0.219 0.233 (6.2%) China Eastern Airlines 670 HK 2.34 Buy Buy 3.30 4.10 (19.5%) 0.299 0.369 (18.9%) 0.399 0.451 (11.5%) China Merchants Holding International 144 HK 23.15 Buy Buy 34.00 34.00 0.0% 1.538 1.538 0.0% 1.945 1.945 0.0% China Shipping Container Lines 2866 HK 1.94 Buy Buy 2.40 2.70 (11.1%) (0.061) 0.061 n.a. 0.109 0.149 (27.1%) China Southern Airlines 1055 HK 3.01 Buy Outperform 4.20 4.60 (8.7%) 0.273 0.304 (10.4%) 0.298 0.370 (19.6%) COSCO Pacific 1199 HK 9.96 Outperform Outperform 12.00 12.00 0.0% 0.118 0.118 0.0% 0.113 0.113 0.0% Hutchison Port Holdings Trust HPHT SP 0.745 Hold Hold 0.800 0.800 0.0% 0.255 0.255 0.0% 0.278 0.278 0.0% Jiangsu Expressway 177 HK 7.64 Outperform Outperform 8.40 8.40 0.0% 0.525 0.525 0.0% 0.603 0.603 0.0% Orient Overseas International 316 HK 47.70 Buy Buy 61.00 64.00 (4.7%) 0.510 0.578 (11.9%) 0.759 0.833 (8.8%) Shenzhen Expressway 548 HK 2.80 Hold Hold 2.90 2.90 0.0% 0.299 0.299 0.0% 0.344 0.344 0.0% SITC International 1308 HK 2.70 Buy Buy 3.20 3.30 (3.0%) 0.041 0.048 (15.0%) 0.060 0.069 (12.6%) TravelSky Technology 696 HK 5.05 Buy Buy 5.90 5.00 18.0% 0.448 0.400 12.0% 0.509 0.445 14.5% Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure 1052 HK 3.73 Outperform Outperform 4.45 4.68 (4.9%) 0.284 0.302 (6.1%) 0.364 0.385 (5.5%) Zhejiang Expressway 576 HK 6.11 Hold Hold 6.00 6.00 0.0% 0.382 0.382 0.0% 0.351 0.351 0.0% Source: Daiwa forecasts; note: prices as of close on 5 July 2013 - 3 - China Transportation Sector 9 July 2013 Contents Large sell-off provides a good buying opportunity .....................................................................
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