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China Aviation China Industrials 20 December 2019 China Aviation 2020: prepare for take-off Boeing’s 737 MAX should re-enter service in 2020, releasing more capacity and volume growth to the market Announcement of Phase 1 trade deal between the US and China Kelvin Lau should remove near-term share-price overhang (852) 2848 4467 TravelSky is our top sector pick; we also recommend AviChina, [email protected] Cathay Pacific and China Southern Frank Yip (852) 2773 8842 [email protected] What's new: We expect market sentiment towards the China Aviation sector to improve in 2020, given the likely return to service of Boeing’s 737 2 0 MAX, a stable CNY assuming China-US relations do not deteriorate further, and steady passenger demand. Hence, we believe now is the time to revisit Key stock calls these cyclicals. New Prev. TravelSky Technology (696 HK) What's the impact: Return of the MAX. Despite Boeing’s recent Rating Buy Buy announcement of a temporary halt in production of the 737 MAX, we Target 24.00 24.00 expect the US FAA to approve the plane’s return to service as early as Upside p 26.3% 1Q20, with regulators elsewhere – including China – likely to follow suit in AviChina Industry & Technology (2357 HK) 2H20. Given this likely effective capacity expansion, our forecasts call for Rating Buy Buy Target 6.00 5.70 China’s air traffic to expand by 10% YoY for 2020, backed by low-teen YoY Upside p 66.2% growth in international traffic. Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) Rating Buy Buy Reduced risk of trade-war escalation. With the US and China having Target 13.10 12.60 announced (but not yet signed) an agreement on Phase 1 of the trade deal, Upside p 15.5% we see limited likelihood of tariff escalation. While we do not expect a final China Southern Airlines (1055 HK) trade deal to be secured any time soon, we believe investment sentiment Rating Buy Hold Target 6.20 5.20 will start recovering, which should herald more stable CNY movement. Upside p 16.5% Beijing Capital International Airport (694 HK) th Final year to catch up on targets. In its 13 Five-Year Plan (2016-20), the Rating Underperform Hold central government set a target for the general aviation sector to have Target 6.40 6.40 5,000 aircraft. While the sector is well below that target currently (1H19: Downside q 18.4% c.2,500 aircraft), we believe that orders and deliveries are likely to Source: Daiwa forecasts accelerate as the end of the period approaches. What we recommend: After revising earnings forecasts and TPs for much of the sector, our top pick is TravelSky, which we see as well positioned to ride accelerating air traffic growth in 2020 and, longer term, expand overseas. We see bottom-fishing opportunities in Cathay Pacific and China Southern Airlines (CSA). For exposure to rising demand for general aviation production in 2020, we recommend AviChina. We upgrade CSA and China Eastern Airlines to Buy (1), from Hold (3) and Outperform (2), respectively, since we see a declining risk of CNY depreciation. We downgrade BOCA to Hold (3) from Outperform (2) and BCIA to Underperform (4) from Hold (3), as we consider their valuations to be demanding. Risks to the sector include slower-than-expected traffic growth and worse-than-expected US-China trade relations. How we differ: Relative to the market, we are more upbeat on the sector’s outlook for 2020 and believe cyclicals will return to the spotlight amid limited downside risk. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 54 China Aviation: 20 December 2019 Sector stocks: key indicators EPS (local curr.) Share Rating Target price (local curr.) FY1 EPS (local curr.) FY2 Company Name Stock code SharePrice NewRating Prev. TargetNew price (localPrev. curr.)% chg New FY1Prev. % chg New FY2Prev. % chg CompanyAir China Name Stock753 HK code Price7.85 OutperformNew OutperformPrev. New8.30 Prev.7.90 %5.1% chg 0.519New 0.519Prev. %0.0% chg 0.718New 0.700Prev. %2.5% chg AirAviChina China Industry & Technology 7532357 HK HK 7.853.61 OutperformBuy OutperformBuy 8.306.00 7.905.70 5.1%5.3% 0.5190.236 0.5190.236 0.0% 0.7180.284 0.7000.284 2.5%0.0% AviChinaBeijing Capital Industry International & Technology Airport 2357694 HK HK 3.617.84 UnderperformBuy HoldBuy 6.006.40 5.706.40 5.3%0.0% 0.2360.513 0.2360.513 0.0% 0.2840.311 0.2840.311 (0.0%)0.0% BeijingBOC Aviation Capital International Airport 6942588 HK HK 78.957.84 UnderperformHold OutperformHold 75.006.40 75.006.40 0.0% 0.5131.009 0.5131.009 0.0% 0.3111.119 0.3111.119 (0.0%)0.0% BOCCathay Aviation Pacific Airways 2588293 HK HK 78.9511.34 HoldBuy OutperformBuy 75.0013.10 75.0012.60 0.0%4.0% 1.0090.233 1.0090.229 0.0%1.5% 1.1190.972 1.1190.749 29.9%0.0% CathayChina Aircraft Pacific Leasing Airways Group 2931848 HK HK 11.348.55 Buy Buy 13.1010.00 12.6010.00 4.0%0.0% 0.2331.239 0.2291.239 1.5%0.0% 0.9721.271 0.7491.271 29.9%0.0% China AircraftEastern LeasingAirlines Group 1848670 HK HK 8.554.19 Buy OutperformBuy 10.004.90 10.004.40 11.4%0.0% 1.2390.194 1.2390.194 0.0% 1.2710.280 1.2710.223 25.3%0.0% China EasternSouthern Airlines Airlines 6701055 HK HK 4.195.32 Buy OutperformHold 4.906.20 4.405.20 11.4%19.2% 0.1940.360 0.1940.360 0.0% 0.2800.484 0.2230.423 25.3%14.4% ChinaShanghai Southern International Airlines Airport 1055600009 HK CH 78.305.32 Buy HoldBuy 95.006.20 95.005.20 19.2%0.0% 0.3602.804 0.3602.804 0.0% 0.4843.358 0.4233.358 14.4%0.0% ShanghaiTravelSky InternationalTechnology Airport 600009696 HK CH 78.3019.00 Buy Buy 95.0024.00 95.0024.00 0.0% 2.8040.874 2.8040.874 0.0% 3.3580.991 3.3580.991 0.0% Source:TravelSky Bloomberg, Technology Daiwa forecasts 696 HK 19.00 Buy Buy 24.00 24.00 0.0% 0.874 0.874 0.0% 0.991 0.991 0.0% Note: Pricing as of 19 December 2019 Jet fuel price China passenger growth trend 100 25% 90 20% 80 15% 70 10% 60 5% 50 0% Jul-19 Jul-18 Jul-20 2010 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan-20 Jan-18 Jan-19 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Nov-20 Sep-18 Nov-18 Sep-19 Nov-19 Sep-20 May-18 May-19 May-20 2020E 2019E Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts 2 China Aviation: 20 December 2019 Table of contents Time for cyclicals ..................................................................................................... 4 Stable outlook for China-US trade in the near term ............................................................4 Return of the MAX to release capacity to the market .........................................................4 Better volume growth for Chinese airlines in 2020E ...........................................................8 Order acceleration for general aviation ............................................................................ 11 Recent China airspace adjustment neutral to BCIA ......................................................... 12 Recommendations ..................................................................................................14 Look for volume players ................................................................................................... 14 Ride expansion of the general aviation industry in 2020E ................................................ 14 Go cyclical ....................................................................................................................... 14 Valuations attractive overall ............................................................................................. 14 Risks ................................................................................................................................ 20 Company Section TravelSky Technology ..................................................................................................... 21 AviChina Industry & Technology ...................................................................................... 24 Cathay Pacific Airways .................................................................................................... 27 China Southern Airlines ................................................................................................... 30 China Eastern Airlines ..................................................................................................... 34 Air China .......................................................................................................................... 38 China Aircraft Leasing Group ........................................................................................... 41 BOC Aviation ................................................................................................................... 44 Beijing Capital International Airport .................................................................................. 48 3 China Aviation: 20 December 2019 Time for cyclicals Stable outlook for China-US trade in the near term Stable CNY movements We believe the recent conclusion of phase 1 of the trade agreement between the US and should help improve China will help support investment sentiment towards trade- and CNY-related stocks in the sentiment towards the near term. Although we do not expect a final deal to be struck any time soon, we believe airlines the phase 1 agreement will at least bring an end to the cycle of escalating tariffs while also reducing some of the tariffs imposed earlier. Against this revised backdrop, we believe that concern over CNY depreciation against the USD will ease. Besides, we believe there is the possibility of a short-term boost in trade due to restocking if manufacturers fear that the trade relationship would suddenly sour,
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