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OECD Digital Economy Outlook 2015

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OECD Digital Economy Outlook 2015 OECD Digital Economy Outlook 2015 Contents Chapter 1. An overview of the digital economy Chapter 2. The foundations of the digital economy Chapter 3. The growing and expanding digital economy Chapter 4. Main trends in communication policy and regulation OECD Digital Economy Chapter 5. Trust in the digital economy: Security and privacy Chapter 6. Emerging Issues: The Internet of Things Outlook 2015 OECD Digital Economy Outlook 2015 Consult this publication on line at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264232440-en. This work is published on the OECD iLibrary, which gathers all OECD books, periodicals and statistical databases. Visit www.oecd-ilibrary.org for more information. ISBN 978-92-64-23227-3 93 2015 04 1 P OECD Digital Economy Outlook 2015 This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of OECD member countries. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Please cite this publication as: OECD (2015), OECD Digital Economy Outlook 2015, OECD Publishing, Paris. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264232440-en ISBN 978-92-64-23227-3 (print) ISBN 978-92-64-23244-0 (PDF) Photo credits: © Victoria - Fotolia.com; © Jumpeestudio - Fotolia.com Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found on line at: www.oecd.org/publishing/corrigenda. © OECD 2015 You can copy, download or print OECD content for your own use, and you can include excerpts from OECD publications, databases and multimedia products in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitable acknowledgment of the source and copyright owner is given. All requests for public or commercial use and translation rights should be submitted to [email protected]. Requests for permission to photocopy portions of this material for public or commercial use shall be addressed directly to the Copyright Clearance Center (CCC) at [email protected] or the Centre français d’exploitation du droit de copie (CFC) at [email protected]. FOREWORD Foreword The OECD Digital Economy Outlook is a biennial series which examines and documents evolutions and emerging opportunities and challenges in the digital economy. It highlights how OECD countries and partner economies are taking advantage of ICTs and the Internet to meet their public policy objectives. Through comparative evidence, it informs policy makers of regulatory practices and policy options to help maximise the potential of the digital economy as a driver for innovation and inclusive growth. This publication replaces and builds upon the OECD Communications Outlook and Internet Economy Outlook (formerly OECD Information Technology Outlook) to provide a more holistic overview of converging trends, policy developments and data in the digital economy on both the supply and demand sides. The Digital Economy Outlook 2015 has been prepared by the OECD Secretariat under the guidance of the OECD Committee on Digital Economy Policy (CDEP), chaired by Jörgen Abild Andersen (Denmark). It has benefited from the input of delegates to the Committee and its Working Parties on Communications Infrastructure Services Policy (CISP), chaired by Tracey Weisler (USA), on Measurement and Analysis in the Digital Economy (MADE), chaired by Luis Magalhes (Portugal), and on Security and Privacy of the Digital Economy (SPDE), chaired by Jane Hamilton (Canada). A large part of its content builds on the responses by Member countries and Partner economies to the OECD Digital Economy Questionnaire sent in June 2014. The Digital Economy Outlook has been declassified by the Committee on 8 May 2015. The Secretariat team which drafted the Digital Economy Outlook is part of the OECD Directorate for Science, Technology and Industry headed by Andrew Wyckoff, and worked under the direction of Anne Carblanc assisted by Cristina Serra Vallejo for the overall coordination. Authors include, by alphabetical order, Brigitte Acoca, Frederic Bourassa, Agustín Díaz Pinés, Michael Donohue, David Gierten, Pedro Herrera Gimenez, Aaron Martin, Pierre Montagnier, Hajime Oiso, Sam Paltridge, Christian Reimsbach-Kounatze, Elettra Ronchi, Cristina Serra Vallejo, Vincenzo Spiezia, Sukham Sung, Rudolf van der Berg and Verena Weber. Contributions have been received from the OECD Public Governance and Territorial Development directorate, in particular from Arthur Mickoleit and Barbara Ubaldi. Geoff Huston from Potaroo and Karine Perset from ICANN have provided the team with useful insights as did Colin Blackman, Research Fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies. The sections on Brazil, Colombia and Egypt have been drafted respectively by Rafael Moreira and Lorrayne Porciuncula, by Alejandro Delgado and Sofía González, and by Dr. Noha Adly and Nevine Tewfik. We would like to thank the Ministry of ICT in Egypt and the Ministry of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) from Colombia, in particular former Minister Diego Molano, for their collaboration to this edition. Finally, the assistance of Teligen, a division of Strategy Analytics Ltc., CISCO, Matthew Zook from ZookNIC, Measurement Lab (M-Lab), Neftcraft and Shodan is gratefully acknowledged, as is the assistance of other colleagues in the OECD who have provided data for the analysis. OECD DigitaL ECONOMY OUTLOOK 2015 © OECD 2015 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of contents Executive summary ..................................................... 11 Chapter 1. An overview of the digital economy ................................. 15 1.1 Introduction ......................................................... 16 1.2 National digital strategies and ICT policy priorities ........................ 20 1.3 Main trends in the ICT sector........................................... 36 1.4 Uptake and use of ICTs across the digital economy........................ 46 1.5 New and evolving business models ..................................... 53 1.6 The Internet of Things................................................. 60 1.7 Trust, competition and network neutrality ............................... 62 1.8 Internet governance and policy outlook.................................. 71 Notes .................................................................. 76 References.............................................................. 77 Annex .................................................................. 80 Chapter 2. The foundations of the digital economy ............................. 83 2.1 The ICT sector........................................................ 84 2.2 Communication market size and network development ................... 103 Notes .................................................................. 128 References.............................................................. 128 Chapter 3. The growing and expanding digital economy ........................ 131 3.1 ICT adoption and use across economic and social activities ................ 132 3.2 New and evolving business models and markets .......................... 144 3.3 Measuring the impact of the digital economy: Growth, productivity and jobs .................................................. 160 Notes .................................................................. 167 References.............................................................. 167 Annex .................................................................. 170 Chapter 4. Main trends in communication policy and regulation ................. 171 4.1 Industry consolidation and policy responses ............................. 174 4.2 Convergence: Service bundles and the rise of over-the-top operators ........ 180 4.3 The network neutrality debate.......................................... 185 4.4 Advanced fixed networks and regulatory issues........................... 193 4.5 Wireless developments ................................................ 198 Notes .................................................................. 205 References.............................................................. 206 OECD DigitaL ECONOMY OUTLOOK 2015 © OECD 2015 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 5. Trust in the digital economy: Security and privacy .................... 209 5.1 The growing profile of digital security and privacy risks .................... 210 5.2 The job market for security and privacy professionals ..................... 215 5.3 Privacy enforcement and security response .............................. 219 5.4 Other selected trends impacting trust ................................... 224 Notes .................................................................. 235 References.............................................................. 235 Chapter 6. Emerging issues: The Internet of Things ............................. 239 6.1 The Internet of Things: Developments, definition and main elements ........ 240 6.2 Technical developments in the Internet of Things ......................... 247 6.3 Fostering public policy goals with the Internet of Things ................... 259 6.4 Autonomous machines and public policy ................................ 272 Notes .................................................................. 276 References.............................................................. 277 Tables 2.1. Fixed broadband baskets, download speeds, minimum upload speed and bandwidth usage
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