american academy of arts & sciences spring 2009 Bulletin vol. lxii, no. 3 Page 5 After the 2008 Elections: How Will They Govern? David T. Ellwood, Norman J. Ornstein, and Thomas E. Mann

Page 15 Reflecting on the Election and Its Consequences David Brady and Pamela S. Karlan

Page 25 The New Pragmatism: Coping with America’s Overwhelming Problems Daniel Yankelovich

Page 31 Andrei Sakharov: The Nuclear Legacy Paul M. Doty, Matthew Bunn, František Janouch, Evgeny Miasnikov, and Pavel Podvig

inside: The Public Good: The Impact of Information Technology on Society, Page 1 Remembering John Hope Franklin by Walter Dellinger, Page 3 From the Archives, Page 44 Calendar of Events

Save the Date Induction Weekend Contents Saturday, October 10, 2009

News 2009 Induction Ceremony–Cambridge

Is Information Technology Sunday, a Public Good? 1 October 11, 2009 Remembering John Hope Franklin 3 Sunday Symposium–Cambridge

Academy Meetings For information and reservations, contact the Events Of½ce (phone: 617-576-5032; email: [email protected]). After the 2008 Elections: How Will They Govern? David T. Ellwood, Norman J. Ornstein, and Thomas E. Mann 5

Reflecting on the Election and Its Consequences David Brady and Pamela S. Karlan 15

The New Pragmatism: Coping with America’s Overwhelming Problems Daniel Yankelovich 25

Andrei Sakharov: The Nuclear Legacy Paul M. Doty, Matthew Bunn, František Janouch, Evgeny Miasnikov, and Pavel Podvig 31

Noteworthy 42

From the Archives 44 Academy News

Is Information Technology a Public Good?

lic sphere without the kinds of information that newspapers have supplied. I don’t mean weather reports, but investigative journal- ism–local, national, international.”

Participants in a discussion of Alternative Futures for the Internet: Fears and Opti- mism assessed what can and should be done to craft the ideal Internet. David Clark, Senior Research Scientist at the mit Com- puter Science and Arti½cial Intelligence Laboratory, emphasized that “the Internet is not a ½xed and determined thing. It mu- tates rapidly. As we drive toward the future, there’s more than one possible path and that raises a bunch of vague questions. Can we even predict the eventual implications of ac- tions we take now? Should we assume that the Internet of the future is simply a random phenomenon?”

Butler Lampson (Microsoft), Irwin Mark Jacobs (Qualcomm), Vinton Cerf (Google), and John L. Turning to Books, Publishing, and Libraries, Hennessy (Stanford University) Co-Chairman of the Board of Adobe Systems John Warnock noted, “I think electronic li- Digital technology has created unprece- the past and future of computing, communi- braries have a huge opportunity in the future dented changes in the way we live, work, and cations, and the Internet. Cerf commented because you can organize content in very interact with the world and with each other. on the speed with which people embraced unique and personal ways, which you could Its effect is apparent everywhere: President the Internet, especially through social media never think about in book form.” Stanford Obama’s digital campaign recruited 8 mil- sites. “It has been this incredible avalanche University Librarian and Director of Aca- lion volunteers online; more than 200 mil- of shared information,” he said. “The expres- demic Information Resources Michael Kel- lion blogs have been published; Facebook sion ‘information is power’–I think it’s ler suggested that the digitization of objects surpassed 175 million users worldwide; sales wrong. It’s ‘information sharing is power.’” on the Internet has done much to “democ- of iPods topped 180 million; and one in eight ratize learning and intellectual exploration.” The Public couples married in the United States last year In a series of panel discussions, Good: The Impact of Information Technology on Other panels focused on how information met online. At a recent meeting in Mountain Society technology has changed the way people View, California, the Academy convened considered transformations in a wide think about art, new tools and media, and technology pioneers, industry leaders, sci- range of areas, from governance to books, the democratization of craft. entists, and scholars to examine the impact libraries, and art. A session on Information Technology and Democracy examined how –positive and negative, planned and unan- The symposium opened with a memorial technology has changed the way citizens in- ticipated–of information technology on minute for James N. Gray, a Fellow of the teract with government and receive informa- society. Academy who made seminal contributions tion. “The Web has not overcome the strati- to the ½eld of information technology and The symposium featured four Fellows whose ½cation of American politics, as some peo- encouraged the planning of this conference. breakthrough discoveries helped launch the ple had hoped it would,” said Henry Brady, Gray was lost at sea in January 2007. C. Gor- digital revolution. Vinton Cerf, Chief In- Professor of Political Science and Public don Bell, Principal Researcher at Microsoft ternet Evangelist at Google; Irwin Jacobs, Policy at the University of California, Berke- Research, offered personal remarks about Founder of Qualcomm, Inc.; Butler Lamp- ley. Speaking about the demise of newspa- his close collaborator: “Jim is a great friend son, Technical Fellow at Microsoft; and John pers, Joshua Cohen, Professor of Political of computing and a friend of this Academy. Hennessy, computer industry pioneer and Science at Stanford University, observed: He was a legend when we ½rst met in 1994, President of Stanford University, discussed “We can’t have a successful democratic pub-

Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 1 Academy News

C. Gordon Bell (Microsoft Research) describing an exhibit at the Computer History Museum

David Clark (MIT), Hal Varian (Google), Cynthia Dwork (Microsoft), and Jonathan Zittrain (Harvard Law School) and I found we shared the same religion Media), Cynthia Dwork (Microsoft), Ed- Jesse H. Choper, David Clark, Edward about building scalable computers. His re- ward Feigenbaum (Stanford University), Feigenbaum, Pat Hanrahan, John Hennessy, search was driven by the quest for fundamen- Edward W. Felten (Princeton University), John Hollar, and Edward Lazowska–and tal understanding yet also inspired by a Charles Geschke (Adobe Systems, Inc.), to Microsoft, Google, and the Computer search for practical applications. He built Daniel Goroff (Sloan Foundation), Pat History Museum for hosting the conference. systems that are in use today, including on- Hanrahan (Stanford University), John Audio and video coverage of the program line transaction systems that do our banking Hollar (Computer History Museum), Ed- is available on the Academy’s website at and reserve our airline tickets, and more re- ward Lazowska (University of Washing- www. amacad.org/audio/mountain/moun- cent systems like Google Earth, Microsoft ton), Donald Lindberg (National Library of tain.aspx. The panel discussions will appear Virtual Earth, and the World-Wide Tele- Medicine), Carl Rosendahl (Paci½c Data in a forthcoming publication. scope.” Images), Hal Varian (Google), and Jonathan Zittrain (Harvard Law School). The more than twenty presenters at the meeting included Jonathan Berger (Stan- The Academy is grateful to the members of ford University), Dale Dougherty (Maker the Planning Committee–C. Gordon Bell,

2 Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 Academy Meetings Remembering John Hope Franklin by Walter Dellinger

John Hope Franklin, who died in March at times, even now, while enjoying a symphony the age of 94, was one of the most remark- or an opera, when I reproach myself for able Americans of the twentieth century. having yielded to the indignity of racial He was the master of the great American segregation.” story of that century, the story of race. John In 2007, the American Academy of Arts and Hope wrote it, he taught it, and he lived it. Sciences joined with the American Philo- For seven years, he and I taught constitu- sophical Society to confer a “Public Good tional history together at Duke University, Award” on John Hope Franklin. In present- and I never ceased to marvel at how he ing the award, I noted that in the founding managed both to embody this history and papers of both the Academy and the Society yet recount it with an extraordinarily can- there are frequent references to “thinkers did honesty. Our students would fall into and doers.” The trajectory of our republic the deepest hush while he recounted his ex- owes much to both kinds of participants in periences researching his epic 1947 work, our national story–those thinkers whose From Slavery to Freedom: A History of African ideas laid the foundation for our most im- Americans (reprinted scores of times since, portant democratic institutions; and those and still widely read), in segregated South- doers who took aspirational concepts and ern state libraries and Southern university made them concrete. John Hope Franklin libraries. He would describe the various Jim was one of those rare individuals whose John Hope Franklin Crow rules he was required to navigate–a prodigious talents manifest themselves as separate table from white patrons, a prohi- both. bition on being waited on by white female He worked on a crucial brief for Brown v. librarians, and similar indignities–without Board of Education, he marched in Selma, he a trace of bitterness. lectured all over the world, and he taught all After the acclaim for From Slavery to Freedom of America to see through his uncompromis- and his other writings brought him a place ing eye. But it was not just what he did, but on the Howard University faculty while he how he did it that marked his greatness. was still in his 30s, John Hope thought he had John Hope somehow combined a tough and achieved the ½nal academic appointment of uncompromising militancy with the courtly his life. He believed that a scholar who was a manner of an old-school Southern gentle- man of color could aspire to teach nowhere man. He understood that the public good else. History proved him wrong. In 1956, was not merely a set of substantive outcomes; when Brooklyn College made him the ½rst it is also de½ned by how we go about recon- African American to be appointed to chair ciling our competing visions of that public an academic department at a predominant- good. It is about how we view one another ly white institution, The New York Times re- when we peer across the great divides of ported the story on its front page. policy, preference, political party, and per- sonhood. John Hope Franklin looked at John Hope never compromised on princi- those who opposed him and saw fellow hu- ple. Well, almost never. He told and retold man beings. the story of a decision he made as a young teenager in Tulsa to see a performance by a He was no Pollyanna. He knew, as my son star of the Metropolitan Opera. His parents Drew once wrote, that we are still always strongly disapproved of his decision, since it crossing that bridge from Selma to Mont- entailed sitting in a segregated balcony. He gomery. But John Hope always looked at the later wrote, “I am not altogether proud of state trooper blocking the bridge, the ½gure going to Convention Hall, and there are standing in the way of freedom, and saw

Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 3 Remembrance

there another child of God. He knew, as On April 28, 2007, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and the Charles L. Black Jr. said, that the tragedy of American Philosophical Society bestowed the “Public Good Award” on Southern race relations was drawn from John Hope Franklin. that “prima materia of all tragedy: the fail- ure to recognize kinship.”

When Barack Obama emerged as a possible Citation candidate for president, I asked John Hope Renowned historian and educator, ardent defender of civil rights, keen how historic it would be if Obama won his observer of American society, dedicated adviser to presidents, you have party’s nomination. He replied that the his- worked throughout your life to create One America. Born into poverty and torical signi½cance of such a thing was be- burdened by racism, you responded with intelligence, insight, and integrity, yond measure. Obama’s nomination, he creating an unparalleled body of work on African American culture. said, “would counter one of the most domi- nant narratives of the past 350 years on this With your books, essays, and lectures, you rede½ned the entire corpus of continent.” Then he added the thought that American history. Over the past sixty years, through eight editions and six it could be even more historically and cul- translations, your landmark study, From Slavery to Freedom, has more than turally important “to have that family as the met the challenge you set for yourself: “To weave into the fabric of Ameri- ½rst family than to have Obama as president.” can history enough of the presence of blacks so that the story of the United States could be told adequately and fairly.” You have mentored thousands When the roll was called in Denver and the of students, many of them now distinguished scholars, and served as a role Democratic convention, by acclamation, model for your profession as President of the Southern Historical Associa- made Obama its nominee for president, I tion, the Organization of American Historians, the American Historical stepped outside and called John Hope. I Association, and the United Chapters of Phi Beta Kappa. asked him the question so many of us–par- ticularly those of us from the South–have Beyond the classroom and the scholarly community, your influence has now asked each other: Did you ever think been profound. Your research at the Library of Congress for the naacp you would live to see this day? In his reso- Legal Defense Fund was critical to the outcome of Brown v. Board of Educa- nant baritone, John Hope responded, “Well, tion, ending the separate and unequal system of education you endured but I never expected to live more than 90 years. rose above. A determined civic activist, you took to the streets with Martin But, no, even if I had, I still would not have Luther King in the voting-rights march from Selma to Montgomery. An ad- thought that would be long enough to see viser to presidents from Franklin Delano Roosevelt to William Jefferson this happen.” That he did live into this year Clinton, you have continued to champion the cause of racial equality with seems a special gift. patience, determination, and dignity. We honor you tonight as the model of an American scholar-patriot, bringing statesmanship, knowledge, and engagement to one of our nation’s most intractable challenges. Walter Dellinger is a partner at O’Melveny & Myers in Washington, D.C., and a Fellow of You held up a “Mirror to America,” bore witness to inequality and injustice, and acted the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. against both. Your seminal scholarship has reshaped our understanding of America, A version of this article appeared in “The Wash- providing both blacks and whites with a new reflection of themselves and each other. ington Post.” As the consummate teacher, you reached out to instruct this nation and inspired mil- lions of Americans to grasp a present and a future long owed to them. You personify the great humanitarian; a courageous and gentle man whose strong words and quiet actions are beyond measure. All of us who value freedom and opportunity stand tall in your presence.

4 Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 Academy Meetings

Celebration in Lower Hutchinson Field, Grant Park, Chicago, IL, upon hearing that U.S. Senator Barack Obama was elected President of the United States Image © Ron Sachs/CNP/Corbis After the 2008 Elections: How Will They Govern?

Norman J. Ornstein and Thomas E. Mann David T. Ellwood, moderator This presentation was given at the 1938th Stated Meeting, held at the House of the Academy on January 14, 2009.

The present moment is an amazing one. I stan–where we seem to be struggling. Add realize this is a commonplace concept, that in Pakistan, nuclear proliferation in the Mid- most people in any given year tend to think dle East, the incredible crisis in Gaza. Con- that the world they live in is at a major turn- sider the issues raised by climate change and ing point. One never really knows until much energy policy. (The really inconvenient truth later, but if ever there was a good nominee about climate change is that it is going to be for an amazing moment, the present feels hard, not easy. Had any of the recent presi- like one. dential candidates honestly addressed the is- sue of climate change, they would have said, More than a year ago, before the ½nancial “You know, these gas prices are too low, not crisis began, my colleague David Gergen said too high,” and “Any solution is going to in- that the new president, whomever he or she volve sending a lot of money to China to help would be, would face the greatest set of chal- do carbon capture and other things to offset David T. Ellwood lenges since Franklin Roosevelt. That he all the coal they will be burning.” But no one could say this even before the current ½nan- David T. Ellwood is Scott Black Professor of seemed to be running on the platform of cial crisis is easy to understand. Start with Political Economy and Dean at the Harvard higher gas prices and more money for China.) the huge challenges presented by Iraq–where Kennedy School. He has been a Fellow of the Consider health policy and what happened getting out will be really hard–and Afghani- American Academy since 2000. the last time it was tackled: the Clinton Ad-

Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 5 Academy Meetings ministration nearly crashed, and the Demo- health care, and so on–only he had to worry What I hope will happen in cratic Congress was thrown out. Finally, con- about the budget. The budget was a really sider the issues of terror and security, educa- big problem, and within the administration the ½rst year is that the new tion, and immigration. Looming behind all a tremendous ½ght was waged over budgets of these is the budget. Our de½cits were as- versus other priorities. Many people argue administration will make tonishing even before the current crisis. that the budget folks won, perhaps to good effect. Donna Shalala, my boss at the Depart- down payments–of both Besides the unique scope of the current set ment of Health and Human Services, used of challenges, the other striking thing about the monetary and critical to say it’s really not fair for Democrats to be them is that a misstep with almost any one in of½ce when there’s no money. Democrats of them could destroy a presidency. Iraq, Af- framework sort–on a num- really like to spend money. So imagine being ghanistan, the Middle East, climate change, a Democrat coming into of½ce and being told, ber of major projects, in- health policy–the list of things that could go “You must spend a trillion dollars as fast as wrong is enormous, and some are completely possible.” You actually have money to do a cluding health-care reform, out of anyone’s control. A terrorist incident lot of stuff up front. This gives new meaning or the avian flu could derail everything. Com- climate change, and energy to the usual claims that the president’s ½rst bine those challenges with uncertainty about hundred days set the tone for the entire ad- where the economy is headed, and the new independence. ministration and therefore must be done president faces a combination of challenges right. In this case, a trillion dollars will be unlike any we have ever seen. controlled by an agent of the White House, spent in those ½rst hundred days. But, and a national security adviser, or the National this is important, Obama had better spend Economic Council (nec). The Cabinet Oba- The ½rst moments of the it wisely, because it’s probably his last tril- ma has assembled, however, comprises a new administration will be lion. Eventually he will have to start paying number of exceptionally powerful ½gures the bills for all of that unbelievable debt and who just might be able to turn the tide of the amazingly important. The de½cit he will create. So the ½rst moments battle historically waged between the White of the new administration will be amazingly House and Cabinet. president and his of½cials important. The president and his of½cials might feel tempted to do the impossible: do How will the White House maintain control might feel tempted to do it all and do it early. Instead, what I hope will over its agenda? How will it manage the many happen in the ½rst year is that the new ad- powerful voices and competing priorities? the impossible: do it all ministration will make down payments–of Rahm Emanuel, who is a highly effective, and do it early. both the monetary and critical framework thoughtful, powerful man, will play a sig- sort–on a number of major projects, includ- ni½cant role. (I was on the wrong side of a ing health-care reform, climate change, and number of battles with Emanuel back in At the same time, this is an exciting moment energy independence. the Clinton administration, and I can tell because so many people are happy and excit- you it is hard to win against him.) And he ed about serving, about making a difference. Watching the team that Obama has been put- is far from being the only powerful White So, as the saying goes, and as Rahm Emanuel ting together has been fascinating. Its mem- House ½gure on the Obama team. The inter- recently af½rmed, never waste a crisis. bers are an amazingly impressive group of actions between ½gures like Larry Summers, people. In combination they also suggest a nec Just after the election, I was at a dinner party heading the , and Timothy Geithner at strikingly different form of governance. His- that included Mayor Bloomberg of New York. Treasury will be interesting to watch. De- torically the relationship between the White He was asked why on earth he would again fense, where William Gates is staying on House and the executive departments has want to be New York’s mayor. “Nothing but from the Bush administration, will present been a battle. In general, at the end of the hard times lie ahead. You got an A the ½rst fascinating challenges to Obama. How those day the White House wins, and the Cabinet time around, so why not get out while the get- challenges are managed amid the broader members are annoyed.1 A few Cabinet of½- ting’s good?” He said, “It’s way more fun to response to the current crises will provide cials, typically at Defense or Treasury, might lead in bad times than in good times. You can fascinating viewing opportunities well be- be unusually powerful because of where they do stuff. People will put up with stuff. In fact, yond the new administration’s ½rst one are. But even then they tend to be somewhat they want a leader. They want someone who’s hundred days. strong. In good times, you can’t do anything, because people won’t put up with it.” 1 During the Clinton Administration I was one of bill is written, and the ½nal deal is cut, you’re not the people in charge of welfare reform. In fact, I going to be in the room.” I said, “What do you The other interesting aspect to the present thought I was one of the three people in charge. mean, I’m not going to be in the room? I’m kind moment is that it is like a fantasy for Demo- We were running the show, deciding who was on of in charge.” He said, “No, you won’t be in the crats. Recall that when Clinton got into of- what group, writing the bill, and so on. And then room, because you care more about poor people the head of politics for Health and Human Services than you do about Bill Clinton.” That was one of ½ce, he was going to change the world, ½x came to me and said, “You know, when the ½nal those “Oh, yeah, I guess they’re right” moments.

6 Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 Academy Meetings

All kidding aside, this really is a remarkable Obama has led a model time. David outlined some of the dif½culties Barack Obama will face, and they are not to transition and has focused be minimized. But Obama will also take of- ½ce with a number of election-born advan- on a governing style. He also tages that many, if not most, of his predeces- sors did not enjoy. Obama won a stunning, believes that he can capture sweeping victory, including capturing a ma- some Republican support jority of the popular vote, making him one of only four Democrats in history, and the by actually soliciting and ½rst since Lyndon Johnson, to do so. Unlike Presidents Bush and Clinton, Obama had incorporating Republican coattails. The Democrats picked up an im- Norman J. Ornstein pressive number of seats in both houses of ideas. Congress. Of course, Obama was not solely Norman J. Ornstein is Resident Scholar at the responsible for these gains. This was an elec- were Democrats. The numbers are nearly American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy tion in which most Americans looked at the identical to what Obama has. Despite this Research. He has been a Fellow of the American world as it has played out over the last few seeming advantage for Clinton, the ½rst two Academy since 2004. years and did not like what they saw. They years of his presidency were among the most especially did not like anything about Wash- dif½cult for a president in modern times. We have six days to go in the seventy- Republicans, after twelve years dominating seven-day interregnum between Election Obama won a stunning, the White House and now shut out of power Day and Inauguration Day. This long period in Washington, basically said, “All right, during which the president-elect waits to sweeping victory, including you won it all. You’re on your own. Don’t take over is unique to the United States. count on us.” True to their word, not a sin- During this time the president who will soon capturing a majority of the gle Republican voted (at any stage in the be replaced still holds power and is able to bill’s progression through the House and exercise the full force of that power, despite popular vote, making him Senate) for Clinton’s signature initial prior- the election results. I have likened this situ- one of only four Democrats ity, an economic recovery package. The ad- ation to moving in with your ½ancée while ministration spent seven to eight humiliat- her soon-to-be ex-husband is still living in in history, and the ½rst since ing months begging, pleading, and cajoling the house. President-elect Obama has been to get a simple majority in either house, sensitive to this reality, and when he ½rst Lyndon Johnson, to do so. ½nally succeeding by one vote in each. In- met with President Bush after the election, stead of winning an initial big victory that he solemnly said, “We can only have one ington, and although Democrats had been would give him the momentum and the in- president at a time.” President Bush respond- in the majority in both houses of Congress fusion of political capital to move toward ed, “That’s not what Dick Cheney told me!” since 2006, voters basically blamed Republi- other successes, Clinton’s victory looked cans. Nonetheless, a signi½cant number of much more like a defeat. A separate part of We have witnessed some remarkable mo- the Democrats newly elected to the House, that economic recovery plan, a stimulus ments during the transition period, one of and even a few in the Senate, know that they package of astounding size–all of $13 bil- the most interesting being the historic lunch- might not be there were it not for the supe- lion–died in a ½libuster in the Senate. The time gathering of all the living former presi- rior organization–the get-out-the-vote ef- tugging and hauling over the Clinton econo- dents with the president and the president- fort, the ½fty-state strategy–of Obama’s mic plan was followed in the next year by the elect. When the bill arrived, they argued campaign. Democrats are in a remarkable burning wreckage of his health-care plan, awhile over who should pay and then de- position after gaining twenty or more seats along with humiliating setbacks on his cided they would just pass it on to future in the House of Representatives and making crime bill and in other areas. The lesson for generations. Another interesting moment big gains in the Senate for the second election Obama is that having Democratic majori- occurred just today, when the Secret Service in a row, the ½rst time that has been done ties of the size he will enjoy does not auto- caught somebody trying to climb over the since 1932. matically mean you can make things work. fence at the White House. They said, “Mr. President, you come back here; you’ve still The Democrats’ swollen numbers should The news is not all bad when comparing the got six days to go.” In a few days we’ll get to give them at least a slight pause, however. start of the Clinton administration with the see the new presidential limousine, which When Bill Clinton got elected in 1992, he present. Back in 1993, Democrats had held makes its debut on January 20. The Secret came in with a comfortable Democratic ma- the majority in the House for thirty-eight Service calls it an armored tank. gm calls it jority in Congress: 258 out of 435 representa- consecutive years. Not a single Republican a midsize. tives and 58 out of 100 senators at that time serving in the House in 1993 had ever served

Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 7 Academy Meetings as a Republican under a majority Republican Republicans in for coffee or by making little Having strong-minded, House, and only one Democrat, Sid Yates of phone calls, but by actually soliciting and in- Illinois, had served as a member of a minor- corporating Republican ideas. The Republi- accomplished people at all ity Democratic House–way back in 1954. cans in Congress represent a daunting chal- Most Democrats in Congress believed that lenge to the new president. For all of the levels of government is some- buried somewhere in the Federalist Papers dif½culties Clinton had, substantial num- was a proviso that the Congress shall be con- bers of moderate, centrist, and even liberal thing we all desire and like. trolled by Democrats. Their attitude was Republicans sat in both houses back in 1993, Pulling their various strong “Presidents come, presidents go, we stay. and Republican senators did not regularly Whether they succeed or fail has little to do use the ½libuster, or the threat of ½libuster, voices into a single, consistent with us and thus doesn’t much matter.” This as a device to retard progress on many dif- was their attitude in 1993, and it led to their ferent issues. Now, the ranks of Republican message will be a daunting departure from the majority two years later, moderates form but a trace element in the followed by twelve years of wandering in the House and barely more than that in the challenge, however. desert of the minority before recapturing Senate, and the ½libuster has become a the majority in the 2006 elections. Most of very different vehicle. head the Treasury Department; Summers, a the current members are cognizant of the At the same time, $13 billion in economic former Treasury Secretary who will direct reality that their fate is inextricably linked stimulus seemed like a huge amount of mon- Obama’s National Economic Council, holds with that of the president. That might make ey in 1993. Now $800 billion is being criti- very strong views, and probably is not afraid a difference for Obama. cized by many economists on the left and to play the protégé/mentor card; and Paul right as being too little to jump-start the Volcker, a former Federal Reserve Chairman Obama also has to deal with economy. If the stimulus passes, the presi- who will be kibitzing from the outside as dent will have money to work with instead head of Obama’s Economic Recovery Advi- a dysfunctional political sys- of the ½scal straitjacket that pundits con- sory Board. Unlike on the campaign trail, templated before the economic meltdown. where all involved share one objective–get- tem, a public discourse that But Obama also has to deal with a dysfunc- ting elected–and work closely together, of- frequently consists of people tional political system, a public discourse ten in the same building, in an administra- that frequently consists of people at one end tion the main players are scattered about at one end screaming at peo- screaming at people at the other, and a politi- Washington, might not have a primary goal cal system where the opposition party views of reelecting the president (might even see ple at the other, and a politi- the success of a president of the other side the president’s success as antithetical to their as something that is not necessarily good. own), and might believe that working close- cal system where the opposi- All of those factors will be dif½cult to over- ly with other appointees could compromise tion party views the success come. Still, Obama’s track record on the their own strongly held beliefs or undermine campaign trail and during the transition has their own power base. Whether Obama, with of a president of the other been promising. He ran a sophisticated the unbelievable, once-in-several-genera- ½fty-state campaign with enormous inter- tions talents that he probably possesses, can side as something that is not nal discipline and a focus on the outcome impose his will in this kind of an environ- that was never deterred or fazed by the in- ment while also dealing with a Congress necessarily good. evitable bumps encountered along the way. that is struggling to get past its own parti- That plus the remarkable team he has as- sanship and dysfunction will be a most in- At the same time, Obama has learned from sembled show that he is a natural executive. teresting set of issues not just for those of us the lessons of Bill Clinton, who botched his who observe, write about, and analyze poli- But his governing approach is one that rep- transition, paid little attention to personnel, tics for a living, but for all of us, because the resents its own set of challenges. The team did not put an early governing structure in outcome will have a direct and immediate of rivals is a wonderful concept. Having place, had a disorganized White House, hit effect on our lives and those of our children strong-minded, accomplished people at all the ground stumbling in many other ways, and grandchildren. levels of government is something we all and frittered away those initial several desire and like. Pulling their various strong months that really are critical to the suc- voices into a single, consistent message will cess of a president. Obama is not about to be a daunting challenge, however. Obama’s do that. He has led a model transition and economic team alone will bring together the has focused on a governing style. He also likes of Tim Geithner, a widely respected believes that he can capture some Republi- banker who spent his career in government can support, not just by having individual as a protégé of Larry Summers and who will

8 Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 Academy Meetings

elected. George Herbert Walker Bush point- ed that out, but, alas, Americans didn’t see it The candidate offerings until much later. from both parties made for But the nature of the problems was of a dif- an extraordinary opportu- ferent order, and while things were accom- plished, we fell short of the expectations nity for the country to reen- and ushered in one of the most dif½cult pe- riods in American public life. We all remem- gage and actually become a ber Florida, November 2000, the days and weeks of bitter struggle to determine who bit more hopeful. our next president would be. I remember thinking, what in the world will George W. and toward the end of the Bush administra- tion the public lost faith in the country, the Thomas E. Mann Bush say in his inaugural address to bring the country together after that thirty-six-day direction it was moving, its standing in the Thomas E. Mann is the W. Averell Harriman struggle? The editors of The Onion came to world. Now we can add utter fear about the Chair and Senior Fellow in Governance Studies the rescue, suggesting that the president be- ½nancial meltdown and the economic situa- at the Brookings Institution. He has been a Fellow gin his inaugural address by recalling Gerald tion we face. If ever we have gone through a of the American Academy since 1993. Ford’s, “Our long national nightmare of dif½cult period in our history, setting aside peace and prosperity is over.” Little did we the Civil War, the current period ranks right up there, which is why so many people in The start of the Clinton administration was this country, Democrats and Republicans, a special time; it was an exciting time. David’s If ever we have gone through as well as people around the globe, were so Department of Health and Human Services utterly fascinated by and engaged in this had one of the ablest secretaries ever. She a dif½cult period in our his- election. The candidate offerings from both looked as good and felt as energized when parties made for an extraordinary opportu- she left the of½ce after eight years as she did tory, the current period ranks nity for the country to reengage and actually coming in, and she assembled an extraordi- become a bit more hopeful. narily talented group of people. Expectations right up there, which is why of what might be achieved were high, and so many people in this coun- Now, I know you’re thinking, “He sounds some expectations were met. We saw some Pollyannaish for an academic; he’s been real achievements both during the ½rst two try, as well as people around taken in by the poetry of this opportunity years and in the subsequent years. Today we for a new beginning.” But I want to suggest look back on the economy and the society the globe, were so utterly that we fall too easily into a cynical, critical and the state of well-being around the globe mode, that we too quickly ½nd the prose during those years, and we pine for those fascinated by and engaged and miss the poetry. The present combina- good times. The de½cit reduction initiatives, in this election. tion of facts and events really is quite extra- the Earned Income Tax Credit, the North ordinary. The man who will be our president, American Free Trade Agreement, and wel- the nature of the election, a transition that fare reform were all real achievements. But know how prescient The Onion editors would has proven to be remarkably competent, the we remember them along with the rocky prove to be and how dif½cult a period would unprecedented early start to governing well start, the failure of health reform, the ever- follow: 9/11, the war in Iraq, Katrina, and the before the inauguration–all increase the present Whitewater and other so-called scan- ravages of the economy–not to mention the possibility of the president, the government, dals, the 1994 political setback, the bitter deep ideological polarization of the political the country actually succeeding in some re- partisan battles, the impeachment, all of parties, the seeds of which were planted in spect instead of falling right back into a which combined to limit the reach and im- the 1960s but came to fruition during this sense of hopelessness. The conditions in the pact of an administration that was quite dif½cult period when we saw the institution- country and the nature of the political situa- skilled, electorally. Clinton was the ½rst al pathologies in American government and tion are signi½cantly different from sixteen Democratic president to be elected twice politics. The failures of Congress, the ½rst years ago, when Bill Clinton was inaugurat- and serve out eight years since Franklin branch of government, magni½ed the prob- ed. Certainly, conditions are much different Roosevelt. But Bill Clinton himself has said, lems of the other branches. A nation and than in January 2001, and those differences “Good times don’t make for great presi- Congress divided 50/50 along party lines ele- at least open some possibilities that we have dents.” He ran on the economy–“It’s the vated the permanent campaign, and elected not seen in this country in a long while. economy, stupid!”–but the reality is that politicians began to ask of their every step, First, the magnitude of the election victory the economy was already starting to come how will it influence the next election. suggests that if Obama governs successfully, out of its slump by the time Clinton was Achieving any serious deliberation, any serious policy-making in Congress was hard, a realignment of the sort fdr achieved in

Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 9 Academy Meetings

his 1932 election is a real possibility. As Norm servative ideas with which Clinton was con- The seriousness of the prob- said, not since fdr have we had a new Demo- fronted have little credibility. Tax cuts, moral cratic president replace a Republican while traditionalism, and assertive nationalism lems we face creates the pos- winning an absolute majority of votes and abroad are not going to solve the problems carrying signi½cant numbers of new mem- we face. Democrats in Congress, chastened sibility of our political sys- bers of his party into both the House and the and much more experienced, are no longer Senate, nor have we had two consecutive the arrogant party and are actually looking tem operating in a way that Democratic wave elections since 1930 and to work with Republicans. Obama’s approach is much more productive 1932. Add to that the underlying demographic to governance is not ideological. He has a shifts. In 1992, about 12 percent of the elector- clear vision, a set of values, but he operates than we have seen in recent ate was nonwhite. Today that number has on the basis of getting something done, by doubled to about a quarter. And every ele- whichever means seem available. He has put decades, and this possibility ment of that nonwhite electorate–African together an experienced, knowledgeable, Americans, Latinos, Asian Americans, and and pragmatic team and is engaging with makes the present an exhila- others–is overwhelmingly aligning with the Congress in a way that I have not observed rating time. Democratic Party. Add to that the youngest in a long time. He understands the trick is cohort–which in 1992 still reflected Ronald not to go over the heads of Congress or to of the other branch of government. Congress Reagan’s popularity but is now reacting to ignore the public entirely. His administra- has decided it will no longer be a potted plant George W. Bush and strongly supported Oba- tion will employ veterans of Capitol Hill who but will engage. ma in the recent election–along with shifts know how to make the system work. I see in the metro area, and it all suggests some- signs of prioritizing, of the sequencing of For all my bullishness, I still think the chal- thing even more substantial to come. activities so as not to allow the agenda to be lenges are daunting. The ways in which Oba- jammed and an early defeat to color the whole ma could fail are many. But the seriousness Rather than viewing the administration. of the problems we face creates the possibil- ity of our political system operating in a way I happen to think the notion of the ½rst hun- that is much more productive than we have initial time in of½ce as a dred days applied to only one president in seen in recent decades, and this possibility our history, Franklin Roosevelt. And yet we makes the present an exhilarating time. period when you must spend pull it out of the hat after every election with- what political capital you out considering whether the current condi- tions match those that made fdr’s ½rst hun- David Ellwood have because it will soon be dred days possible: the severity of the prob- Both Norm and Tom mentioned that Obama gone and the rest of your lems facing the country and the nature of the is coming in with astonishing expectations, government, a three-to-one Democratic ma- not just here but around the world. Indeed, term is irrelevant, the point jority and little in the way of staff on Capitol part of the brilliance of his campaign was to Hill. In 1933 you could really write new laws say just enough to give you a flavor of what of the ½rst few months should in the White House and get them enacted. is to come without ½lling you up. Obama is Washington is so much different now. Health smart and appeals to an audience that has be to set the stage for leading care will not be done in months and possibly been frustrated by the almost anti-intellec- throughout the term. not in a year or two; it will be a long, long tual atmosphere that has pervaded politics struggle, probably accomplished in chunks for quite some time. But now comes the hard and pieces over time. Rather than viewing part, where he must ½ll in the details and In addition to the demographic changes, the the initial time in of½ce as a period when you prioritize. He can’t say, “Oh, yeah, I’m going seriousness of the problems we face is such must spend what political capital you have to do that, and I’m going to do that, and I’m that the normal political hurdles may give because it will soon be gone and the rest of going to do that.” He can accomplish only a way and provide an opportunity for action your term is irrelevant, the point of the ½rst limited number of things, and I’m concerned that would not otherwise exist. When Clin- few months should be to set the stage for about what gets put off. I remember being in ton came into of½ce, he was dealing with the leading throughout the term. The way in an administration when there wasn’t much primacy of conservative ideas in our politics which Obama has tried to deal with Congress money left for projects. Obama will get one –ideas that dominated political discourse on the release of the second installment of tarp or two bites of the apple right now, and then and governance for close to a quarter cen- the Troubled Asset Relief Program ( ) the money will be gone. tury. Clinton had to give that speech in which funds and negotiate the terms of the stimu- he claimed the era of big government is over, lus package demonstrates that he is a skilled How will Obama deal with the expectations, even when in effect he had proved that it was politician who knows where he is going but what will his priorities be, and what will be not, that he had stabilized it. Today the con- is perfectly prepared to accept the legitimacy left undone as a result?

10 Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 Academy Meetings

Norman Ornstein to give them a little bit of a cushion as we try to transform the system. The stimulus package is an First, having $800 billion or $1 trillion to play with is positive in a couple of ways for Obama. Health-care reform might be doable in two opportunity to have an early He can start with a lot of carrots, a lot of grease, or three steps. The administration is not go- success on an urgent issue to move things along. The domestic priorities ing to push for immediate, dramatic change. for him are fairly clear, and we haven’t even Instead, change will be phased in and will and to reestablish some cred- touched on the international priorities–get- require buy-in from a lot of different constit- ting out of Iraq, dealing with Iran, and other uencies. ibility for the government’s knotty issues. He will need to start by inspir- The next major priority is energy and the ing con½dence, both here and around the capacity to do positive things. environment. Major steps will be taken with world, that we have a plan to get out of the the stimulus package to fund research and economic ditch, and he’ll need to do this with- jectives in health and energy will not get development of alternative energy sources, out raising expectations that it will happen spending going quickly. The programs are encourage clean coal plants, build wind tur- quickly. He has done pretty well on that front, just not on the books yet. We can do worker bines, and so on. Addressing climate change and the public, despite the eight-second at- training, and some transfers to states will will be tougher. Obama might try to imple- tention span most of us have right now, seems work well, especially through programs like ment the cap-and-trade program he wants, to understand that the economic downturn Medicaid and schip, where monies will using authority that the courts have given to is not going to end in February or March, that enter existing systems and shore up spend- the president and regulators without having we’ve got some time to go. Substantively, ing where there would otherwise be cuts, to go to Congress. However, even the most coming up with something that can actually thus providing some stimulative effects. But popular presidents are unlikely to attempt work is at least as dif½cult as politically get- the real risk is trying to jam in major policy end runs around Congress, so I doubt this ting it through. changes in a way that diminishes the impact would be his ½rst choice. One area of the of the stimulus on the economy. And let’s Obama will need to start by stimulus package that will address energy face it: for Obama to succeed, he needs to and environmental concerns is the plan to serve eight years; he needs the economy to inspiring con½dence, both retro½t public buildings to make them more be coming out of this serious downturn as energy ef½cient. This is an area where you he gears up for reelection in 2012. The well- here and around the world, could get people working right away, espe- being of the economy is central to any of cially if commercial buildings and homes Obama’s longer-term goals. The stimulus that we have a plan to get out were included. The potential impact on both package is an opportunity to have an early of the economic ditch, and the economy and the environment could be success on an urgent issue and to reestablish signi½cant. some credibility for the government’s ca- he’ll need to do this without Obama could make signi½cant strides with pacity to do positive things. The govern- some of his major priorities by using the stim- ment will need to act on other matters in the raising expectations that it ulus package to go further than he would future, when the ½scal constraints are even will happen quickly. otherwise normally be able to go and to use greater, and it will have to pay for some of the momentum that is generated to move these programs with dedicated revenues. even further onward. It’s a gamble, but one Thus, Obama should be planning not to do Health care is another top priority. I’m actu- where the likelihood of success is much high- all his great things at the beginning, but ally more bullish on this front than Tom is. er than if we were not in the midst of an eco- should be imagining a successful eight years I don’t think it will take two or three years, nomic crisis with the money to hand out the of government. but it is also not going to happen in one go. ½rst carrots (which can then be followed with What Obama can do in health care is push sticks). Question for expansion of existing programs, such as schip (the State Children’s Health Insur- Why shouldn’t I be worried about the follow- ance Program). More than likely, the stimu- Thomas Mann ing: The bailout plan already enacted has lus package will expand insurance for a lot I think it would be a terrible mistake for disappeared without a trace; the original of people who are unemployed; it could also Obama to believe that this is his one chance, amount of money has not been accounted expand Medicare to many of those between for in any way. From that, one can possibly schip his only bite at the apple, and to try to get ½fty-½ve and sixty-four and expand everything into this stimulus bill, because conclude that no due diligence was per- (or create a similar program) to cover the that would almost certainly kill its macro formed to assess the condition of the banks parents of children in that program. We’ll effect, which is desperately needed. We have and other ½nancial institutions receiving likely also get moving on a health informa- a serious economic problem, and we need to aid. Now we are talking about putting more tion technology program, and we’ll probably increase aggregate demand. Unfortunately, money into these institutions. But we are send more money to health-care providers, pushing some of Obama’s longer-term ob- already in debt between $10 and $11 trillion. The various bailouts and stimulus packages

Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 11 Academy Meetings seem likely to add many more trillions. No Thomas Mann example, interest rates–do not work with one is going to lend us money anymore. We deflation. Because we are so desperately are just going to start printing money, it I have never felt less con½dence in the sum afraid of it, we shove a lot of money out to would seem. What will prevent hyperinfla- total of our knowledge and understanding try to make it better. I’m not saying you tion? Why should I not worry about that? as scholars, government of½cials, and as a should go to bed feeling great, but I think society as I do today. I don’t think much cer- you should feel better than if we had not tainty exists about what happened or what Norman Ornstein done the tarp and taken other steps to to do about it. In some respects, we are fly- shore up the ½nancial system. When people ask me for investment advice, ing blind, much like fdr, who tried various things out of a sense of desperation. Steve I say, invest in printing presses because they Norman Ornstein are going to be working night and day! In Pearlstein, whose writing on the economy reality, I think we are going to look back on has been both highly intelligent and pre- Tom is absolutely right. We have no alterna- Hank Paulson’s tenure as Treasury Secretary scient and who has been critical of how the tive. But we can proceed with or without ac- under President Bush and give him a sizable recovery efforts have been handled, recently countability. We did the ½rst half of the bail- slap across the side of his head for one thing, said, listen, we avoided a global ½nancial out without; we need to do the second with. for not following through with a level of ac- meltdown the likes of which would have countability or with promises that were made dwarfed what we’ve already seen. If the Leh- David Ellwood to Congress but were not written down, par- man Brothers collapse had been followed by ticularly including doing something about aig and Citigroup, forget it. All bets would Yes, we can do things with accountability and be off. Panic, not just in the United States actually have a strategic plan. In fairness, at but around the globe, would have spiraled the time the bank bailouts were being ar- What we have seen with out of control. Pearlstein argues that, yes, ranged, the situation did feel like an imme- Obama from the start is other things have to be done, but the steps diate crisis. Some measure of the initial re- already taken were critical. sponse can be forgiven as being a bit like what an understanding that a test pilots are instructed to say as they’re go- I recently met with a delegation from Aus- ing down: “I’ve tried A; I’ve tried B; I’ve tried different approach to gov- tralia, and they said, “Whatever you do, don’t C; I–” In our case, we ended, fortunately, scare us again, as you did when the House with “We’re still up!” The ground still looks erning is needed, one where initially refused to pass the bailout.” The awfully scary, but we haven’t crashed yet. decision-making is shared only safe haven in the world today is U.S. However, accountability has now got to be treasury notes. People are willing to pay the part of our response, and, in fact, more and involves give-and-take U.S. government negative interest rates to thought is going into how we can ensure have a home there. We are obliged not to al- just that–which is not to say we know where and sensitivity to Congress. low the utter disintegration of the ½nancial we are headed. system. I don’t know how much more it will take, but I know a lot of it will come back to the mortgage problem. The Bush adminis- Norman Ornstein the government as it did under comparable tration agreed to address the problem out times in the Great Depression. Frankly, I On the issue of deflation/inflation, I ½nd it of the ½rst $350 billion but did not follow don’t think we have an alternative. commendable that we have bipartisan lead- through on it. These failures have left an ers in Congress–including Kent Conrad enormously high level of distrust inside and Judd Gregg in the Senate and Frank Congress. To Obama’s credit, he has been David Ellwood Wolf and several Democrats in the House– burning up the phone lines with members If you really want to be worried, ½rst you who are trying to couple the stimulus pack- of Congress, giving them speci½cs and con- should worry about deflation, which will be age with an administration commitment to crete promises about what he would do with followed by inflation. We sort of know what focus down the road on addressing the big the second $350 billion in tarp funds. to do about inflation: we put ourselves into three entitlement programs (Social Secu- As to why we should spend those funds at a recession and cut back on the money side. rity, Medicare, and Medicaid). If we cannot all, we continue to have a serious credit Deflation you should lose sleep over be- ½gure out now a way to build in budget dis- problem and a lack of con½dence up and cause we are not good at ½guring out what cipline for those times when things are go- down the line. To address this, we’ve got to to do about it. (In fairness, we have not had ing better, then the problem of hyperinfla- get money out there and get some commit- to deal with it in a really long time. Unfortu- tion becomes much more severe because of ments that it will be used to free up credit to nately, that last time was during the Great how deep a hole we’re starting from and start that element of the economy moving Depression. The world was wildly different how many trillions of dollars deeper it will again and to create greater stability in ½nan- then, and what we did to get out of it is still soon get. cial institutions. a matter of debate.) A lot of the levers–for

12 Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 Academy Meetings

Question Question ly acknowledged that a lot of dangerous people are there whom we must ½gure out About thirteen years ago, a clever Boston Globe Given the voters’ repudiation of the arrogant where to put. What will he do when surveil- reporter named Charles Sennott wrote an yet inept Bush presidency, what might hap- lance issues come up, when somebody on interesting article called “Armed for Pro½t.” pen to executive power and executive privi- his intelligence team briefs him on, say, a se- The article was about the U.S. defense in- lege? I’m worried about our civil liberties. rious threat of an imminent transfer of nu- dustry and how much money it makes off us clear material? The real, live answers to and off the rest of the world. As of 9/11, we Norman Ornstein those questions are tough to deal with, but were spending–I believe this is right–$388 at least with Obama we start with a com- We will see a signi½cant change in attitude billion a year to support this corrupt busi- pletely different attitude. ness. I want to know, yes or no, do you think at the White House on things like signing the Obama administration will be strong statements. President Obama is not going to Thomas Mann enough to stand up to the military industrial abandon signing statements, but they will complex? look more like those of earlier presidents. Norm is right. The posture and attitude of They will explain why he is signing a bill or the Obama/Biden team certainly is differ- Thomas Mann will discuss why he would like to move in a ent from that of the Bush/Cheney team. particular direction. They will not be state- The latter had the most capacious concep- No. Actually, the problem with answering ments to the effect of “I refuse to enforce tion of presidential authority of any admin- yes or no is that it presumes we accept the these provisions because they infringe on istration in American history. But the fram- entire premise of your question, and I’m un- my power as the unitary executive.” We will ers of the Constitution did not depend upon comfortable with it. Have we had scandals see more openness and less arrogance, less having good guys in the White House. They and corruption in the defense contracting willingness to claim executive privilege at set up competing institutions, and it was business? You better believe it. Do we waste every turn. We will not get a unilateral dis- Congress’s failure to question, to insist on dollars? Yes. Do we have a long-term prob- armament in the presidency, however. information during the recent period of lem with projected defense outlays because Strong-minded individuals moving to the uni½ed Republican government. Congress White House want power and will want to during the Bush years was utterly supine, I have never felt less con½- exercise that power. What we have seen and that permitted the very abuses that with Obama from the start, though, is an many people have observed. I do not think dence in the sum total of our understanding–partly because he comes you will see similar behavior from this Con- out of the Senate and will be surrounded by gress. Even though we have a uni½ed Demo- knowledge and understand- former senators and representatives–that a cratic government, we can already see signs different approach to governing is needed, of institutional patriotism and loyalty, of ing as scholars, government one where decision-making is shared and challenging, of expecting certain things. of½cials, and as a society involves give-and-take and sensitivity to Obama will have to take that into account. Congress. How this new approach will play Interaction between the branches is what as I do today. out on the international stage will be inter- will preserve our civil liberties. esting to watch.

Already we are starting from a premise that David Ellwood we have so many obligations to restore is distant from the Bush administration, equipment? Yes, and we are going to have Remember that the oath of of½ce is a prom- which came in with an unrealistic notion of to do something about the next generation ise to protect and defend the Constitution executive authority that ignored American of major weapons systems. (By the way, re- of the United States. The man about to take history and turned the Constitution on its placing equipment, getting more troops on this oath is a lawyer who did very well in law head. To this the Bush presidency added the the ground, and covering the health-care school; whose heroes, many of them, are premise that whatever the inherent author- costs of the injured from Iraq and Afghanistan Constitutional scholars; and whose admin- ity of the executive it is always greater dur- would make a great stimulus.) But I am un- istration is being stocked with both people ing wartime. They then de½ned the war as comfortable with the idea that a cabal of he admires and people who admire him– one that would go on forever. However, evil people in the defense industry is setting people who actually believe the Constitu- Obama, who is starting to get the daily secu- the agenda of the Defense Department. I tion has meaning. I think they understand rity brie½ngs that show the dozen threats, think the reality is much more complicated that the Constitution is a document that will some serious, some not, thwarted in the than that. force them at times to make choices they previous twenty-four hours, will still need would prefer not to make, but as lawyers to ½gure out how to deal with the reality they believe it is a document that constrains that evil people really are out there trying to as well as empowers. I think they will respect kill us. How will he deal with Guantánamo? those constraints because they will have a He has pledged to close it but has also open-

Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 13 Academy Meetings different attitude about where power comes contract online. Now he is pushing Congress David Ellwood from and a historical recognition that the to put every signi½cant bill online so that the Constitution’s limits, frustrating as they are public has an ample amount of time to re- The issue is whether the power hitters (and all presidents are enormously frustrated view and study it. The additional eyeballs throughout the administration, most of by them), were carefully drawn up by the would allow for a level of scrutiny simply whom are used to hanging around Washing- framers as part of their elaborate series of not achievable by Congressional staff and ton and playing Washington games, will be checks and balances. the Government Accountability Of½ce. able to adapt. Watching to see whether Some people have a lot of time on their Plouffe and others can make it happen will be fascinating, because if they succeed it Question hands and would be only too happy to pore over legislation, looking for problems, flaws, will mean a revolution in governance. Do you think the public engagement that seams, or even corruption. Obama’s campaign inspired can continue its momentum into his administration? Will The administration would also like to ½gure © 2009 by David T. Ellwood, Norman J. the public have a greater voice in government out how to keep the 4 or 5 million people on Ornstein, and Thomas E. Mann, respectively in the future? the Obama campaign list engaged and how to use them as a weapon. David Plouffe, Oba- David Ellwood ma’s campaign manager, has been tasked with ½guring out how to do this. Most likely To that I would add: Will this administra- it won’t be done from inside the government, tion’s governance really be fundamentally which would be tricky, but through the different? More grassroots in some fashion? Democratic Party or some independent en- Or will it quickly turn out to be like most tity. One of the challenges will be handling administrations, sending out the occasional the many among those 4 or 5 million people missive, and so forth? whose expectations of Obama are much greater than what he can actually deliver.

The Constitution’s limits, I think the Obama administration is also go- ing to try to use new technologies to ½gure frustrating as they are (and out better ways of governing. We live in a all presidents are enormously network age, but our government is not net- worked. One of the most interesting things frustrated by them), were I have seen in the last decade is something called Intellipedia. The intelligence commu- carefully drawn up by the nity, across sixteen agencies, has created its own proprietary version of Wikipedia to al- framers as part of their low for the sharing of intelligence cases and elaborate series of checks information that can then be updated and commented on. For the ½rst time, the intel- and balances. ligence agencies have actually moved past the stovepiping that was notorious in the in- telligence world. The Intellipedia model is Norman Ornstein one that could ½nd wider application in I think they have every intention of extend- helping to cut across some of the antiquated ing to their governing the social networking boundaries that crisscross government. that became such a critical part of the cam- paign, and they also have every intention of Thomas Mann being more transparent, which will also un- We are going to be intently watching and leash the public. One of Obama’s proudest studying how the digital revolution changes accomplishments as a senator was a bill he campaigning and governing. The changes got through with Tom Coburn, one of the will likely be massive and profound. two or three most conservative Republicans in the Senate, that puts every government

14 Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 Academy Meetings

Reflecting on the Election and Its Consequences

David Brady and Pamela S. Karlan Introduction by John L. Hennessy

The panel discussion took place at the 1934th Stated Meeting at Stanford University on December 1, 2008. © Images.com/Corbis

tice Harry Blackmun. Currently she is the Professor Karlan was elected to the Ameri- Kenneth and Harle Montgomery Professor can Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2007. of Public Interest Law and the founding Di- rector of the Stanford Law School Supreme David Brady’s research is focused on the U.S. Court Litigation Clinic. This clinic, one of Congress, its political history and decision- the ½rst of its kind to be established in the making process, as well as the U.S. party sys- United States, exposes students to the work- tem and the history of U.S. elections. Twice, ings of the Supreme Court and gives them in 1995 and 2000, he was awarded the Con- the opportunity to work on cases currently gressional Quarterly Prize for “the best pa- before the Court. Professor Karlan has also per on a legislative topic.” In the classroom, distinguished herself as a teacher. In 2002, he specializes in public policy and leadership she received from the law school the John and is recognized as one of Stanford’s most Bingham Hurlbut Award for excellence in outstanding teachers, having received both the Lloyd W. Dinkelspiel Award for excel- John L. Hennessy teaching. She is known as an outstanding scholar in the area of voting and the politi- lence in undergraduate teaching and the Phi Beta Kappa Award for the best teacher on John L. Hennessy is President of Stanford Univer- cal process and has coauthored three lead- ing textbooks on constitutional law and re- campus. Professor Brady joined the Stanford sity. He has been a Fellow of the American Acad- faculty in 1987, the same year the Academy emy since 1995. lated subjects, including the ½rst law case- book on the 2000 presidential election, en- had the good sense to elect him a member. titled When Elections Go Bad: The Laws of De- Over the past decades, he has played many Introduction mocracy and the Presidential Election of 2000. roles. Currently, he is the Bowen H. and Jan- When the Stanford Report asked her to de- ice Arthur McCoy Professor of Political Sci- ence and Leadership Values at the Stanford amela Karlan joined the Stanford Law scribe the process of writing When Elections P Graduate School of Business, Professor of School in 1998 after serving on the faculty at Go Bad, she said, “It was a blast.” She has Political Science in the School of Humanities the University of Virginia and, before that, also made numerous media appearances to and Sciences at the University, Deputy Di- serving as a law clerk to Supreme Court Jus- comment on the 2000 and 2004 elections.

Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 15 Academy Meetings rector and Senior Fellow at the Hoover In- tists disagree over the exact length to be used measure, public opinion, speci½cally the stitution, and Senior Fellow at the Stanford in their models.) The bottom line is that these president’s popularity, predicted the out- Institute for Economic Policy Research. In models are successful. The one I most prefer, come of the election. Normally I don’t like 2004 the Stanford alumni honored him with called the Fair model–Ray Fair, an economist to use public opinion too much in these the Richard W. Lyman Award for exceptional at Yale, developed it–predicted that the Re- cases, because reasonable public-opinion volunteer service to the university in recog- publican candidate for president in the 2008 data goes back only to 1940, whereas eco- nition of his excellence as a teacher and as a election, whoever it would be, would get nomic data is accurate back to 1876. But go- commentator on current topics in elections. about 47.5 percent of the vote. ing into the last election cycle, we had a sit- ting president who owned the ½ve highest These models work least well during war- disapproval ratings ever measured by Gallup. time. For example, in 1968, when the econ- Given the public’s historic dislike of Presi- omy was performing reasonably well, Hu- dent Bush, the basic economic data, and the bert Humphrey, the incumbent vice presi- fact that the country was at war, a Demo- dent, lost his bid to replace President Lyn- cratic win was the most likely outcome. don Johnson because of the Vietnam War. In 1952, a time when the economy was grow- The models used to predict congressional ing at an annual rate of about 2.5 percent and outcomes are more complicated. The econ- the models would normally have predicted omy still ½gures in, but a second part of the reelection of the incumbent, the Korean War equation involves making estimations about brought Eisenhower to victory over Truman. which representatives and senators are most out of step with their constituencies. For ex- ample, is the representative too conservative Elections are retrospective for his or her district or state? Despite this events. That is, when people added level of complexity, the models for predicting the post-election composition of walk into a booth to vote, the House and Senate were within one or two David Brady seats in the House. The average prediction they are voting on the perfor- for the Senate was 58.7 seats for the Demo- David Brady is Deputy Director and Senior Fel- crats, and they appear to be headed toward low at the Hoover Institution and the Bowen H. mance of the president and/ 58. In short, nothing was unusual about the and Janice Arthur McCoy Professor of Political or the president’s party. 2008 election–at least in terms of the mod- Science and Leadership Values at the Stanford els we normally use. Graduate School of Business. He has been a Fel- low of the American Academy of Arts and Sci- In the recent election, a colleague and I ex- What about the campaigns? Do they make amined the predictions of the twenty lead- a difference? They do, but how much of a ences since 1987. ing models used by economists and political difference is hard to ½gure out most of the scientists. Only one model predicted a Re- time. In the 2008 election, John McCain’s Presentation publican victory, and it was created by Jim campaign, which you now hear was not very Snyder, a Republican at Syracuse University. good, actually was good prior to about Sep- The other nineteen predicted a Democratic tember 15 and the economic crisis. In spite hose of us who do political economy ap- T win, and that the Republican candidate of all I’ve just said about why the Democratic proach elections a bit differently than do the would get about 47 percent of the vote. candidate should have been ahead, going into chattering classes and news people. We ask the economic crisis the election was still sur- what would the vote be if the candidates and Does that mean any Democrat would have prisingly competitive. After the Democratic the issues were more-or-less equal? Such a won the election? The answer is, yes, that National Convention, which you would ex- baseline can then be used to build models to was the prediction. When I explained this at pect to give Obama a bump in the polls, he predict the outcome of elections. In estab- a recent talk in Australia, the audience was in fact led by about six to seven points. Then, lishing the baseline, the assumption that quite surprised because they believed there after the Republican Convention, McCain works best is that elections are retrospective was something special about president-elect led by two or three points for about a week. events. That is, when people walk into a Obama (which is not to say there isn’t some- Then the race went to dead even. Why was booth to vote, they are voting on the perfor- thing special about Mr. Obama). However, the election so surprisingly competitive? In mance of the president and/or the president’s the facts are that 2008 was a year in which my view, it was because of the very issues that party. “Performance” really means the econo- one could expect the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton had raised against Obama; my. Has it grown over the last three or sixteen to do well. In addition to the butter and guns that is, he was not experienced, was not a quarters? (Economists and political scien- issues of the economy and the war, another friend of blue-collar workers, and so on.

16 Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 Academy Meetings

The set of voters Clinton had targeted with of teeth: who’s to blame? Blame Palin, blame Are Obama’s victory and her message–the white, blue-collar work- McCain, blame them all–plenty of blame to ers; white, blue-collar women; and middle- go around. But the real question is whether the Democrats’ gains in the class women who won Pennsylvania and the 2008 election is the start of something. nine of the last thirteen primaries for her– Or will it be like 1964, when the demise of House and Senate the start had not yet come over to Obama, thus keep- the Republican Party was forecast after the ing the election much closer than the guns huge Goldwater defeat? Two years later the of a movement or just a and butter models were predicting. Then Republicans made huge gains in Congress, passing moment? came the stock market crash, and polling and in 1968 a long trend of Republican presi- dents started. In 1980, when Ronald Reagan 2008 was a year in which was elected president, the Democrats lost ocrat tended to support traditionally Dem- their lead over Republicans. That is, prior to ocratic issues, such as universal health care, one could expect the Demo- about 1978–1980, polls consistently showed and their shift is probably permanent. But that the percentage of Americans who con- among the Republicans who became Inde- cratic candidate to do well. sidered themselves Democrats was 8–10 pendents, the shift was almost totally relat- percentage points higher than the number ed to dislike of George W. Bush. The bottom showed that after seeing the two candidates’ who said they were Republicans. From 1980 line is that the American public has shifted responses to the crisis the American public on, a third of the country said they were toward the Democratic Party. The question started to have less and less faith in McCain, Democrat, a third said Republican, and a is what will the Obama team do? Will their who was saying things like, “I’m going to third said Independent. policies be successful? If they are successful, quit the campaign; I’m going to go back and the recent party shifts will likely harden, and do this; I’m not going to debate,” while What about the campaigns? the Republicans could be a minority party Obama seemed relatively steady. for the long term. If Obama’s policies are not so successful, many of those Republicans What impact did Sarah Palin have on the Do they make a difference? who switched to Independent might be votes two campaigns? She was useful for the Re- They do, but how much of that the Republicans could win back. publican campaign for about ten days. Her nomination was announced the day after a difference is hard to ½gure Obama gave his acceptance speech at Inves- co Field in Denver. The timing shifted the out most of the time. news media’s focus away from Obama’s speech. Palin was in the headlines, and for Did Obama convert people from the Repub- about seven to ten days she was viewed as a lican Party to the Democratic Party, because reformer because of her handling of the oil all the major polls now show that the Demo- industry in Alaska. She also gave an outstand- crats are at about 34–35 percent and the Re- ing speech, but shortly thereafter things fell publicans are at 26–27 percent? It’s too apart. For ten days, the Palin nomination early to tell. For these changes to become had worked well for McCain because one of permanent, Obama and the Democrat-con- McCain’s fundamental problems was how trolled Congress will need to enact policies could he run as a maverick or reformer when that actually make things better. President his party had been in control for the previ- Reagan was able to make the 1978–1980 ous eight years? Sarah Palin made the Re- shift toward Republicans relatively perma- publican base happy enough that McCain nent by implementing policies that showed could reach out to the other side and explain success in dealing with the economy and the the various ways he had worked to be bipar- Soviet Union. tisan. In the end, however, the economy did The polling data I work with at Polymetrics McCain in. From the start of the economic suggest the news for Republicans is not ter- crisis in mid-September until Election Day, rible, but it’s not good either. Our data show Obama’s lead in the polls was never less than that since 2004 about 6–7.5 percent of the six points. population has switched their party alle- Are Obama’s victory and the Democrats’ giance. Most of that movement was Repub- gains in the House and Senate the start of a lican to Independent, with a smaller percen- movement or just a passing moment? On tage moving from Republican to Democrat. the Republican side we see a lot of gnashing Those who moved from Republican to Dem-

Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 17 Academy Meetings

should be counted, an issue that is being liti- some Democratic strength in the interior gated even as we speak. So we didn’t solve West– New Mexico, Colorado, and Ne- the underlying mechanical problems of the vada. This ties in with a broader point, 2000 election very well. We replaced some which is that much of the change in voting of the election systems that were out there patterns involves not how people who voted with ones that are more accurate, but accu- in 2004 or 2000 or 1996 voted in 2008, but racy hasn’t solved one of the key problems rather the entry of voters who were either we experienced in Florida in 2000: as we new to the system altogether or new to the are seeing with the recount in Minnesota, states in which they voted. Rather than in- optical-scan ballots can apparently also be dividuals drastically changing their posi- counted an in½nite number of ways. tions, the composition of the electorate is changing. The 2008 election was a wide-open election in a different way than previous elections. One of the elephants in the room during the Pamela S. Karlan Not since 1952 have we had an election in 2008 election was the role of race. Overall, which neither of the major parties was run- Barack Obama outperformed recent Demo- Pamela S. Karlan is the Kenneth and Harle Mont- ning a sitting president or vice president. cratic presidential candidates, John Kerry in gomery Professor of Public Interest Law at Stan- This was an interesting election in the sense particular, among white voters. In the South, ford Law School. She has been a Fellow of the that both sides could proclaim their maver- however, Obama’s performance was curious- American Academy of Arts and Sciences since ick status or promise change in a way that ly mixed. Maybe yellow-dog Democrats are 2007. had not been done in the recent past. all dying, but in the Deep South–Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana–Obama’s share Presentation of the white vote was signi½cantly lower than Not since 1952 have we had even Kerry’s share four years before. That is an election in which neither a shocking shift. In the Upper South, how- I was asked to do a lot of panels in August ever, in places like North Carolina and Vir- and September by people who were hoping of the major parties was ginia, Obama signi½cantly outperformed –betting–that the 2008 election would be a Kerry. disaster like 2000. That’s not to say this elec- running a sitting president tion is over, though. The ½libuster-proof Presidential campaigns take a lot of money, Senate is still up for grabs: Georgia is hold- or vice president. and this has led to years of legal concern ing a runoff election between Saxby Cham- about influence and equality. Watergate cre- bliss and Jim Martin for a Senate seat, and We are all familiar with the red state/blue ated a regime under the Federal Election the recount goes on and on and on in Min- state maps and the shifts that occurred this Campaign Act that is one of the most inco- nesota, where Al Franken, having taken over time around. But most of the country is ac- herent regimes anywhere in the law. The from Tina Fey as the most popular comic tually purple. That is, not many areas are way the Act has been set up and interpreted seeking national of½ce, is also vying for a pure blue or pure red at the state level. by the Supreme Court, candidates cannot be seat in the Senate. A lot of the problems of (Nonetheless, blue is probably the appro- limited in how much money they spend, but 2000 reappeared in the 2008 election. They priate color for Democrats, because almost contributors can be limited in how much have just gone unnoticed for the most part every area that votes “blue” is on a body of money they contribute. So, expenditures are because Barack Obama’s margin of victory water. The bluest parts of the country tend unlimited and contributions tightly capped. was higher than the margin of error at the to be along the East Coast, the West Coast, The situation is analogous to being at an all- polls. the Rio Grande River, the Great Lakes area, you-can-eat buffet where teaspoons are used and the Mississippi River. The more parched to serve the food and you have to return to After the 2000 election, we tried to do some parts of the country are red, which is also your table after each (teaspoon-size) helping. election reform. Congress passed the Help appropriate.) The system is incoherent. America Vote Act (hava), which has rough- ly the same relationship to helping Ameri- The 2008 election brought about some fur- Many people point to the amount of money cans actually vote that the usa Patriot Act ther geographic alignment shifts, such as being spent as the real problem. The 2008 has to safeguarding Americans’ patriotism. the defeat of the Republicans’ last represen- election was the most expensive in Ameri- One problem with hava has to do with its tative from the Northeast, Chris Shayes, who can history. The Center for Responsive Poli- requirement that states provide a provision- lost his House seat in Connecticut. We also tics has estimated that about $1.3 billion was al ballot to anyone who shows up at the polls saw a resurgence of the Democrats in the spent by the presidential candidates, which and whose name is not on the of½cial rolls. Upper South–Virginia and North Carolina is roughly double the amount that was spent hava requires that states give out these bal- – reversing four decades of Democratic in 2004, which itself was more than double lots but says nothing about whether they Party declines in those areas. And we saw the amount spent in 2000. Like college tui-

18 Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 Academy Meetings tion, spending in presidential elections out- who started out giving less than $200 but Much of the change in voting paces the general rate of inflation. But to me gave numerous times and eventually had to the problem is not the amount of money: be identi½ed as donors. Many of the people patterns involves not how $1.3 billion is still less than half of what Gen- who gave more than $1,000 likely did not eral Motors spends on advertising every year give it in one shot. They gave repeatedly on people who voted in 2004 for its cars; it’s less than Proctor & Gamble the installment plan. People like me who spends to market soaps. If about 125 million signed up for Act Blue (or the Republican or 2000 or 1996 voted in people went to the polls in 2008, the cam- equivalent) received regular emails reminis- 2008, but rather the entry paigns expended roughly $10 per vote, which cent of the Sally Struthers’s “save the or- doesn’t seem an excessive amount for getting phans” advertising campaigns–only the of voters who were either one’s message across and staf½ng get-out- cause would be some wide-eyed congres- the-vote efforts and the like. What really sional candidate from someplace you had new to the system altogether troubles people is the sense that the candi- never seen–telling us, “If only you would dates either spend all of their time thinking give a little money to this person, you could or new to the states in which about raising money and none of their time push him over the top.” If you had donated they voted. thinking about anything else, or that partic- before and your credit card information was ular groups, because of their wealth, have in the system, you could just press a button more influence on the outcome of elections and away the money went. The Obama cam- Proposition 4 went down 52 percent to 48 and the policies elected of½cials enact. paign perfected this kind of repeat small- percent, and the Colorado initiative went donor solicitation. Combined with the fact down overwhelmingly. This was an interesting elec- that more and more voters were getting their What does this mean going forward? Oba- information from technologies other than ma’s election means that the substantive tion in the sense that both the broadcast media, this new approach to composition of the Supreme Court is not campaign fundraising raises interesting going to change dramatically over the next sides could proclaim their questions about how politics will be con- four years and certainly is not going to move maverick status or promise ducted in the future. to the right. So, conservatives’ strategy of Those of us who came to California not as putting abortion restrictions on the ballot change in a way that had not newborns but somewhat later in life are of- and hoping that by the time one of the ini- ten shocked by the number of initiatives on tiatives gets to the Supreme Court the Court been done in the recent past. the ballot, by their range and scope. Initia- will have changed and will reverse Roe v. Wade tives, after all, are the means by which elec- is dead, at least for the next four years and Thus, one of the things that is most interest- tions most directly make law. What do the probably beyond. The fact that these three ing and different about this election is the initiatives voted on in the last election tell initiatives went down to defeat suggests that, way some of the money was raised. To say us about politics going forward? for the conservative base, abortion may not that Obama, who opted out of the federal be the galvanizing, red-meat issue that it has California’s Proposition 4 involved parental ½nancing system so that he could spend more been in the past. noti½cation for minors having an abortion than he would have gotten from the govern- and was one of two closely watched ballot That honor now goes to same-sex marriage ment, raised most of his money from small initiatives involving abortion this year. The and gay rights, which leads us to California’s contributors is an overstatement. About 80 other one, South Dakota’s Proposition 11, Proposition 8, a proposition to constitution- percent of his money was raised from people was an attempt to ban all abortions within alize a rule that says that marriage consists who gave $1,000 or more. But Obama did the state that were not necessary to save the only of one man and one woman. Proposi- raise more money from small contributors, life of the woman. Colorado had a related tion 8 passed 52 percent to 48 percent, but and had more small contributors contribut- initiative, Amendment 48, which sought to what was especially interesting to me was ing to his campaign, than all of the candidates de½ne life as beginning at conception. All the distribution of votes. Much as the coun- who ran in 2004. Amazingly, the Obama three of these initiatives were defeated. The try has red states and blue states, California campaign raised $150 million from donors South Dakota initiative lost by a margin of has red counties and blue counties. The en- who did not even have to be identi½ed, be- 55 percent to 45 percent, which is signi½cant tire coast of California, from Humboldt cause the total amount they gave over the because the same initiative minus the excep- County down to Monterey County, voted course of the campaign was less than $200. tion to save the life of the woman was on the overwhelmingly against Proposition 8. All This reflects the influence of technology: ballot in 2006 and was defeated by a similar of the inland counties, with the exception Obama raised an awful lot of this small- margin, 56 percent to 44 percent. Even though of two small counties in the Sierras and a donor money on the Internet. In addition, supporters tried to make South Dakota Prop- bedroom suburb from which you might com- the last campaign cycle saw many more re- osition 11 a more attractive initiative, the mute either to San Francisco or to Sacramen- peat small donors than in the past–people margin of defeat barely moved. California’s to, voted in favor of the initiative.

Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 19 Academy Meetings

Proposition 8 also revealed huge demograph- the responsibility of drawing legislative dis- One of the elephants in the ic differentials in how people voted. Accord- tricts. In recent years, it was probably more ing to exit polls, among people eighteen to accurate to say that every ten years the legis- room during the 2008 elec- twenty-nine years of age, 61 percent voted lators went into a back room and picked the against the initiative. Among people over voters by drawing districts with clear parti- tion was the role of race. the age of sixty-½ve, 61 percent voted in fa- san complexions than that every two years vor of the initiative. Sixty-two percent of citizens went into a voting booth and picked Discussion ½rst-time voters–that is, people just being their legislators. That process has been brought into the political process, either be- changed by the redistricting commission, John Hennessy cause they have just become citizens, have which will be made up of randomly selected just turned eighteen, or have just become in- citizens with an ideological balance of ½ve What is the prospect of changing our weird terested in politics–voted against the initia- Republicans, ½ve Democrats, and four citi- system for national elections, for addressing tive. Most racial groups were relatively even- zens who are not members of either of the the distortions created by the Electoral Col- ly split, with one major exception. Thus, 51 two major parties. The initiative was partly lege, which encourages some politicians to percent of whites and 51 percent of Asians a reaction to prior initiatives, to the fact that leave some states alone (we in California were voted against Proposition 8, and 53 percent the California state legislature is itself the blessed not to be getting constant robo-calls) of Latinos voted in favor–although among product of a pathological initiative process while lavishing attention and funding on Latinos under the age of thirty, 59 percent that has led to term limits (no one in the leg- others? With so much focus placed on just voted against. The major exception was Afri- islature has any experience); a budgetary a handful of states (say, Ohio and Pennsyl- can Americans, a substantial majority of process that is almost completely controlled vania), the likelihood is increased that some- whom voted in favor of the proposition. by expenditures required by other initiatives thing unusual will happen. These differentials in the Proposition 8 vote (the legislature has no money to spend and paint an interesting picture of some of the thus cannot do much); and general dislike Pamela Karlan demographic changes that are occurring in of the legislature by a public that has noticed California. that legislators are more likely to be forced The very short answer is no, we have no pros- from of½ce by indictment or to die in of½ce pect of changing the Electoral College. The Rather than individuals than they are to be defeated in an actual elec- Constitution dictates that we will have one, tion. (California has basically the same re- and enough small states and swing states drastically changing their tention rate as the North Korean parliament.) consider themselves bene½ciaries of this system that they are not going to give up on positions, the composition Whether people’s hopes for Proposition 11 it. The longer answer is that we could do a will actually be realized will prove interest- work-around. The so-called national popu- of the electorate is changing. ing to watch. One of the problems I foresee lar vote movement encourages states to is that although the citizens of California pledge that they will cast all of their elec- Arizona passed a ban on same-sex marriage have changed who will be voting on what toral votes for whichever candidate wins a by a much wider margin, 56 percent to 44 the legislative districts will look like, they plurality of the national vote, regardless of percent, but its age skew was quite similar have not said anything about what criteria the vote in their state. So, for example, if to California’s. Florida passed an amend- the commission should use. Other states’ every state had agreed to this system prior ment constitutionalizing a de½nition of experience with legislative redistricting to the last election, every state’s electors, marriage, 62 percent to 38 percent, and commissions suggests that the criteria mat- even those from states like Texas or Alaska, Arkansas passed a ban on unmarried cou- ter in some sense almost more than who ap- would have cast their electoral vote for Oba- ples adopting children or being foster par- plies them. A second potential problem re- ma because he won the national popular ents. The Arkansas initiative did not say it lates to California’s red county/blue county vote. Will this idea get much traction? Per- was about gay couples, but it was under- divide, because to ensure competitive elec- haps. If we were to experience a couple of stood that way, and it passed 57 percent to tions in the California state legislature, dis- elections in a row where the Electoral Col- 43 percent. Over the short term, I expect tricts would need to resemble thin bands lege winner was not the popular vote win- same-sex marriage and gay rights will be a drawn from the coast through the middle of ner, then popular pressure might build. But galvanizing issue for both conservatives the state (imagine a thin strip running from I actually don’t think the Electoral College and liberals. San Francisco to Fresno). This is the only way is the real outrage. If we really want to talk you can create districts that would be up for Finally, Proposition 11 in California: Propo- about outrages, the U.S. Senate is a much grabs in the general election. Unfortunately, sition 11 will change the way Californians se- better example than is the Electoral College. such districts would make no sense for any- lect their state legislature by shifting from thing else. legislators to an independent commission

20 Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 Academy Meetings

David Brady Question to Election Day, “For whom do you intend to vote?” The predictions, based on those But you only need nineteen states to agree to Let’s go back to 2000, when Gore was run- polls, were that Bradley would do much bet- the work-around. ning after eight years of relative prosperity. ter than he did. People have since hypothe- Why didn’t Gore win? sized that what happened is that respondents Pamela Karlan to polls were reluctant to say, “I’m not going Pamela Karlan to vote for him because he’s black,” and That is true. If the nineteen states with the therefore said they were going to vote for most electoral votes signed onto the nation- I think absent a couple of major problems in him and then did not. John Stuart Mill made al popular vote movement, their votes would Florida, he did win. That is, if you asked the the point 150 years ago that the secret ballot form the majority of electoral votes needed people in Florida who had problems casting comes at a cost, which is that people can go to become president, so it would not matter their vote, “For whom did you think you cast into the booth and vote for bad and ignoble how the other states voted. your vote when you went into the voting reasons. But political scientists disagree on booth?”–Al Gore won. A kind of perfect whether the Bradley effect was real. And storm of events in Florida explains why he David Brady when it comes to a presidential election, the did not pick up the electoral votes there. The constitutionality of such a work-around likelihood of seeing a Bradley effect is ex- would undoubtedly be challenged. In the tremely low because people who do not want David Brady 1950s, two bills failed in the Senate because to vote for a candidate have so many reasons big states, which, like the Electoral College, What Pam said is true, but the point is that other than race that they can give to pollsters. draw more attention from candidates, aligned the models all predicted that Gore should Where you might actually see a major effect with little states like Wyoming, which would have won 56–57 percent of the Florida vote. is in what are called low-salience elections, have nothing without the Electoral College. My view is that he ran a strange campaign. ones where people know little about the I doubt that the Senate has changed enough He tried to run to the left, when all he really candidate other than his or her race. I don’t in the last half-century for similar legislation think we saw a Bradley effect in the Deep to have a different outcome. South. I think these are people who were The economy always affects just not going to vote for Barack Obama. Question the presidential elections; it’s The polls captured that fairly accurately. Professor Brady mentioned that the economy not just that a bad economy David Brady had a big effect on the election. Is the new president’s popularity doomed because of hurts the incumbent. Before the election the one question I was the one-to-two-year period of economic sure to get at every talk was “What about the Bradley effect?” The Bradley effect is an misery we are about to enter? needed to say was, “If you liked the last interaction effect. When Bradley was run- eight years economically, elect me. We’ll ning, most polls were done face-to-face, so David Brady have four more years, and I’ll keep my pants you could have a situation in which the in- zipped.” That’s a campaign that would have The economy always affects the presidential terviewer was African American and the re- won. He, of course, did win the popular elections; it’s not just that a bad economy spondent was white, and the respondent vote, but his bad campaign probably cost hurts the incumbent. How long does Presi- might be unwilling to tell the African Amer- him about four percentage points. dent-Elect Obama have once he takes of½ce? ican pollster that he or she would not vote My read of history is that you get two years, for the African American candidate. We and then you are held responsible. Consider Question could have tested for a Bradley effect in the that Ronald Reagan won in 1980 under a high You mentioned that the white vote in the 2008 election by having African Americans misery index. In 1982, the Republicans did Deep South was much less for Barack Obama ask whites whom they were voting for, but not do well in the House elections, losing than it was for John Kerry. Is this an exam- the variable of face-to-face contact is largely twenty-six seats. Until the economy began ple of the Bradley effect? absent from today’s polling practices. For to turn around in mid-1983, Reagan’s ap- example, the Rasmussen poll was absolutely proval ratings were 47, 46, 43 percent. Only devoid of human contact. A computer dialed Pamela Karlan when the economy turned around did his random phone numbers, and when some- approval ratings go up. My best guess is that Whether the Bradley effect is even real is one answered the phone it said, “If you are Obama has two years, although given the unclear. For those of you who don’t remem- voting for Barack Obama, press one; if you severity of the current economic crisis he ber Tom Bradley’s 1982 California guberna- are voting for John McCain, press two.” might have a bit longer. torial race, here’s what the term “Bradley Without an interaction bias, the largest effect” refers to. Pollsters asked people prior Bradley effect we would expect to see in

Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 21 Academy Meetings such a poll would be 0.8 percent. So, I agree Question Each party sees the major with Pam: despite being on everyone’s mind, the Bradley effect was never a factor Are we beginning to do away with categoriz- threat to the integrity of in the 2008 election. ing? In your analysis, everything is done by categories: black, white, older women, young- American elections differ- er women, and so on. I’m old enough to re- Question member Al Smith, who could not get any- ently. The Republicans fear How can we standardize voting so that the where in national politics because he was same methodology is used throughout the Catholic. Then John Kennedy dealt with that. fraud, votes being cast by country? I am a precinct worker, and I have Among the last four secretaries of state, two people who should not be been amazed at how many different types of were women and two were black. We have ballots are used. If we had a national stan- now had a woman on the vice presidential voting. Democrats fear ex- dard, it might make voting easier and the ballot in both parties, and a woman almost results more valid. won the Democratic presidential nomina- clusion, people who should tion. Now we have a black president-elect. Pamela Karlan Why can’t we say, “Gee, something good is be allowed to vote not being going on with the American public”? Why We could standardize. Congress could pass a are we still categorizing when some of the able to do so. law tomorrow requiring a speci½ed voting categories are beginning to fall away? method to be used in any election in which Kennedy, who is usually the ½fth vote on these a federal candidate is on the ballot. The main David Brady issues, may well conclude that because Barack barriers to this type of change are political. Obama has been elected we don’t have a Most elections in the United States are run I don’t disagree with the assessment, but I problem anymore. While that might be true at the county level, although some states think we need to keep some categories–for in many parts of the country, it is not yet true have a little bit of standardization at the example, age is becoming an important one in Alabama or Mississippi or Louisiana. state level. For example, in California, the given the generational changes in voting we Likewise, in some counties in the country, California secretary of state certi½es which have been seeing. The African American anti-immigrant sentiment means that black/ machines can be used but does not require leaders and the leaders of the women’s move- white issues are not nearly as salient as they that any particular one of them be used. ment that we are most familiar with are all once were. Instead, Anglo/Latino issues are in their sixties and seventies and are fading more salient. A number of anti-immigration David Brady out. For the new generation of voters, many measures appeared on ballots in the 2008 of the categories pollsters commonly look at election. Still, I think it is fair to say, with re- The politics differ from state to state. For no longer mean what they do to people who spect to most kinds of people in the United example, in Connecticut, which is a pretty were raised in my generation. A genuine States, that a parent could look at his or her strong party state, party-line ballots are al- generational change is occurring, and we child today, if the child is young, and reason- lowed. A voter can literally pull a tab or should be trying to track that change in our ably say, “You have a chance to grow up to be make a mark and vote for every Democrat surveys. President.” However, groups are not all vot- or Republican on the ballot. In Texas, in ing the same way in elections, at least not yet. 1972, when it was pretty clear that George Pamela Karlan McGovern was not going to carry the state, the Democrats designed the ballot so that We have seen tremendous change. This is not Question Richard Nixon’s name was at the top. Vot- 1928, and it’s not 1960. We have not reached In 2004, exit polling on Election Day suggest- ers would vote for Nixon and then be con- the kumbaya moment yet–at least not ac- ed irregularities in battleground states. Were fronted with a gigantic space in the middle cording to the Southern data with which I’ve similar studies done in the 2008 election? of page, as if to say, “Okay, you voted for been working. We will soon get to see this Nixon, now let’s get back to voting for played out in a really interesting way because Democrats. Here’s Dolph Brisco’s name.” some special provisions of the Voting Rights Pamela Karlan Act of 1965 that protect black and Latino The Democrats’ strategy worked. Nixon Everybody lawyered up early on in this cam- voters in the South and the Southwest were won the state overwhelmingly, but Brisco paign, which led to a huge amount of litiga- renewed by Congress in the summer of 2006, won the governorship. tion. According to Ohio State’s wonderful and the Supreme Court is going to decide in Election Law @ Moritz website (http:// the next two weeks whether to hear a case moritzlaw.osu.edu/electionlaw), forty to challenging the constitutionality of those ½fty lawsuits were brought around the provisions. The Supreme Court is closely di- country, many of them over questions of vided on issues of racial justice, and Justice irregularities in how the registration rolls

22 Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 Academy Meetings were put together. A lot of problems oc- Neither side would give an inch, so nothing Question curred during the primaries. For example, came of the commission. in Maryland, they had changed to a smart- Do any data suggest that money was an im- portant part of the reason why the Demo- card system. The cards might have been Pamela Karlan smart, but the people running the system– crats–who greatly outspent Republicans at not so much. They did not send the cards to Each party sees the major threat to the in- the national level–won in 2008? the polls; so, many of the polling places did tegrity of American elections differently. not open on time, which led to hugely long The Republicans fear fraud, votes being cast David Brady lines. In other places, potential voters faced by people who should not be voting. Demo- I would not look at just one election, so the challenges based on badly maintained voter crats fear exclusion, people who should be short answer is no. If you look at the role of rolls or failures to present adequate identi½- allowed to vote not being able to do so. The money over time, however, you ½rst need to cation, or the like. At the national level, the two parties look at exactly the same prob- divide it by the consumer price index. If you election just was not that close; so, the me- lems and see them completely differently. do that, you ½nd that spending on presiden- dia have not given a huge amount of atten- That is why the Help America Vote Act tial elections has remained pretty flat, with tion to problems and irregularities. Local turned out to be such a mess; it gave a little no huge increases. Second, so long as twice elections, however, saw tremendous prob- bit on participation and a little bit on fraud lems. For example, in Indiana, which recent- but did not actually solve either set of prob- ly adopted the most draconian voter id law lems from the point of view of either politi- We have reasonable data in the country, votes are still being counted cal party. in one congressional district, and a serious on presidential campaign challenge has been raised about whether a Question lot of the students at Purdue University, funding back to 1896, and, Are electronic, touch-screen voting machines which is in the district, will have their votes still a concern? despite quite a few Demo- thrown out because they lacked the appro- priate kind of government-issued id to cast cratic presidents since then, ballots. All in all, I’m not sure that this elec- Pamela Karlan tion was a whole lot better across the board, 2008 was the ½rst year that That problem has gone away in part because even though it did not have outcome effects many states have decerti½ed electronic vot- like those in the 2000 election or allegations a Democratic presidential ing machines and have gone back to optical of irregularities as in Ohio in 2004. scan, which leaves more of an audit trail. If candidate out-raised his necessary, you can hand-count the physical David Brady ballots; you can look at them and see what Republican opponent. happened. Some countries do a much better President Clinton had a commission on elec- job with electronic voting machines than tronic voting, of which I happened to be a as much money is being spent on advertis- the United States does. Brazil has one that member. The upshot of the commission was ing for lipstick as on presidential elections, you can put in a canoe and paddle up the that Democrats wanted a nationally uniform I won’t be worried about money in politics. Amazon; it provides a three-way audit trail. voting method that would eliminate butter- For candidates to be successful, they have Still, people are worried about electronic fly ballots and machines that make mistakes. to reach a threshold. They have to have x voting. David Dill here at Stanford has spent amount of money, because otherwise no a lot of time over the last couple of years in- Democrat would ever have been elected A genuine generational vestigating whether the integrity of electronic president. We have reasonable data on presi- machines can be guaranteed. Canada has a dential campaign funding back to 1896, and, change is occurring, and we wonderful system for presidential elections: despite quite a few Democratic presidents should be trying to track they use paper ballots. The paper ballot is a since then, 2008 was the ½rst year that a Dem- great way to go if you can do it (Canada’s ocratic presidential candidate out-raised his that change in our surveys. ballots are uniform across the provinces and Republican opponent. Yes, Obama’s huge do not include four hundred of½ces and thir- pool of money allowed him to run ads in ty propositions), because you get absolute mit scientists were working pretty hard on Indiana, forcing McCain to respond, and reliability and absolute audit trails, and a sort of atm machine that would meet the to run ads in Montana, forcing McCain to everybody can see exactly how the votes need. In exchange for this, Republicans want- spend time doing things he did not want to were cast. ed to cleanse the voting rolls, to purge every do to make sure that the states that should district’s rolls of people who no longer voted have been red stayed that way. McCain was there. The Democrats would not agree to this. hurt by not having as much money as Obama,

Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 23 Academy Meetings

John L. Hennessy, Pamela S. Karlan, and David Brady

because he was forced to reallocate his re- Pamela Karlan sources. But the difference in funding was not determinative. That is why I believe the One place where money does make an im- political economy models of elections are so portant difference is in who votes. That is, important. In any close election, you can al- the correlation between people’s income ways attribute the election to anything. In and their political participation is very high. 1960 Jack Kennedy got a haircut; it made Age, education, and income level are the best predictors of whether somebody is going to vote. This is why, for example, we have tre- Age, education, and income mendous support for Social Security and Medicaid but have virtually nothing in the level are the best predictors way of early childhood education funding. of whether somebody is Little kids and poor people don’t vote, but rich people and people with high levels of going to vote. education do. Thus, the interactive effect of money and politics is best seen not in which him look older and that accounted for his party’s candidates win, but in which policies victory. In some sense the claim is true, but and programs the government implements if you don’t have a baseline for what the at the end of the day. election would be like, then it’s just talk. The economic models are important be- cause they tell us, everything else being © 2009 by John L. Hennessy, David Brady, equal, what we should expect. The 2008 and Pamela S. Karlan, respectively election was not a surprise to the models. The models predicted it well.

24 Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 Academy Meetings

The NewPragmatism: Coping with America’s Overwhelming Problems

Daniel Yankelovich Introduction by Jeffrey Elman This presentation was given at the 1936th Stated Meeting, held at the University of California, San Diego, on December 3, 2008.

vard. He then went on to complete further vances dialogue-based learning as a core graduate studies at the Sorbonne. His aca- skill in newer forms of leadership; dyg, a demic achievements include being a re- market research ½rm that tracks social search professor of psychology at New York trends; and Public Agenda, a nonpro½t or- University, a professor of psychology at the ganization that he cofounded in 1975 with New School for Social Research, a distin- Cyrus Vance. The common thread in all of guished scholar at the University of Califor- these activities is that they reflect Dan’s nia, Irvine, a senior fellow at the Kennedy own commitment to ½nd ways to analyze School of Government, and, most recently, and present complex public issues. a visiting professor in the department of po- Over the course of his career, Dan has held litical science at the University of Califor- directorships at cbs, Loral, and the Mere- nia, San Diego. dith Corporation, and has served as trustee Jeffrey Elman Dan has a compelling vision of what he calls of the Carnegie Foundation for the Advance- the public intellectual. He has argued that ment of Education, the Charles F. Kettering Jeffrey Elman is Dean of the Division of Social scholars and scientists have both the oppor- Foundation, Brown University, and many Sciences and Distinguished Professor in the tunity and the obligation to play a special others. He is the author of ten books and Department of Cognitive Science at the Univer- role in society. This role is not only to serve hundreds of articles and speeches. sity of California, San Diego. as custodians and creators of knowledge, but At the University of California, San Diego, to illuminate and help us understand impor- Dan serves on the Social Science Dean’s Ad- tant and complex public problems. Dan him- Introduction visory Council. Because of Dan’s generosity, self has played this role, creating enterprises we recently were able to create an endowed such as the research ½rm Yankelovich, Skelly, chair, which we are pleased to call the Yank- am honored to introduce today’s speaker. and White and The New York Times/Yankelovich I elovich Chair in Social Thought. Less tangi- Dan Yankelovich is a man of tremendous vi- Poll, which then evolved into The New York ble, but perhaps more important, Dan’s com- sion and also of many accomplishments. He Times/CBS Poll. In fact, he has been called mitment to the ideal of the public intellec- has been very important to the University, in the dean of American pollsters. He is the tual has energized and inspired many of us. particular to the social sciences. Dan did his founder and chairman of three organiza- undergraduate and graduate work at Har- tions: Viewpoint Learning, a ½rm that ad-

Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 25 Academy Meetings

 the inexorably rising costs of health care We have the potential to and education that threaten the unwrit- ten social contract at the heart of Ameri- restore our world leadership can democracy. status and a long tradition The United States has overcome equal or greater threats in the past. In my own life- of pragmatic problem solv- time, I have witnessed the crash of 1929 and the Great Depression, World War II, the ing. But our nation’s prob- McCarthy period, the Cold War, the Cuban missile crisis, the assassinations of John F. lem-solving gift seems to be Kennedy and Martin Luther King, Jr., the badly eroded. Vietnam War, and 9/11. This is not the ½rst time the country has lurched from one ma- are less familiar. One that we are especially jor problem and crisis to another and some- conscious of is the public demand for a Daniel Yankelovich how managed to cope, and even to prosper. stronger voice. This demand would ordinar- ily be seen as an asset in a democracy. How- Daniel Yankelovich is Founder and Chairman of Erosion of problem-solving capability. Our ever, in today’s culture, the demand is unac- Public Agenda, Viewpoint Learning, Inc., and problems are solvable. We have extraordi- companied by any awareness that having a dyg, Inc. He has been a Fellow of the American nary resources–human, capital, corporate, stronger voice involves taking responsibility Academy since 1999. technological, and scienti½c. We have the potential to restore our world leadership for the points of view it expresses. Unfortu- status and a long tradition of pragmatic nately, the public assumes that simply having Presentation problem solving. But–and there is a big a passionate conviction makes one’s point “but”–our nation’s problem-solving gift seems of view correct. And when people’s passion- ate convictions collide, the result is polar- rior to the 2008 presidential election, more to be badly eroded. P ization and bad decisions. than 85 percent of the American public felt We see many symptoms of this erosion in our our society was on the wrong track–an im- survey data: massive denial, people grasping The demand for a stronger public voice pressive, unprecedented cry of public frus- at straws, ideology instead of practicality, traces back to the cultural revolution that tration that was reflected in the outcome of leadership pandering, polarization instead of took place in our society in the 1960s and the election. My presentation today describes cooperation, growing public mistrust, and 1970s and has strengthened over the last one possible strategy for getting the country ressentiment, a technical term from political thirty to forty years. If people are unwilling back on the right track. science signifying a particular kind of politi- to take responsibility for their strong opin- cal resentment. Political scientists feel that it ions and are impulsive and opinionated in- I. is the second most powerful political emo- stead of thoughtful and responsible, then a Serious Problems. American society is con- tion after instability. Growing resentment, stronger public voice is in fact a drag on our fronted with many severe and overwhelm- ressentiment, is what really corrodes societies. democracy, an invitation to pandering. ing problems: What I ½nd extraordinary and unusual is that II.  a major ½nancial crisis that is internation- the reasons for the erosion are mainly cul- al in scope; tural, which makes them particularly dif½- Blindsided by computer models. Another new cultural factor that interests me particularly  a staggering national debt that swells as cult to deal with. Some of the cultural forces is a new form of “technological hubris” that the nation ages; at work are familiar. For the last thirty or forty years, we have seen: I believe led to some of the worst Wall Street  global warming made worse by the poli- abuses of the current ½nancial crisis. cies of the United States and those of the  a growing expert/public gap, with an largest country on earth, China; elite point of view that does not under- Some months ago, a front-page article in The stand the public or take it seriously, New York Times featured a quote from Joe  an unprecedented transfer of wealth for Cassano, the former head of aig’s London- importing oil from nations hostile to our  a public that mistrusts our nation’s insti- based Financial Products Division. This was interests; tutions and elites, and the division that managed its catastrophic   a severe loss of prestige and credibility in severe political polarization that is emo- credit default swap business. Cassano actu- the world; tional and passionate because of culture ally said: “It is hard for us to even see a sce- wars over core values.  a poorly understood and dangerous con- nario within any realm of reason that would flict with the Muslim world; and Most of the cultural sources of the erosion see us losing one dollar in any of our trans- of our problem-solving abilities, however, actions.” More than $170 billion later (½rst the government had to put in $85 billion; it

26 Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 Academy Meetings

tomed to sacri½ce or to postponing grati½ca- tion. Notoriously, they buy what they want when they want it with scant concern for saving or the future. The baby boom genera- tion does not bear the scars of my genera- tion, the Depression generation, which is fortunate for them but may leave them less prepared to deal with the current downturn in the economy.

When you add up the full range of these causes for the erosion of our problem-solv- ing abilities, you realize that the familiar kinds of solutions, the ones that lie within our traditional comfort zone, are not de- signed to work against cultural forces. We are comfortable throwing money at prob- lems. We are comfortable with legislation and regulation of the sort being considered for the current ½nancial crisis. We are com- fortable with technological ½xes and with applying specialized knowledge. And we are comfortable with media coverage and pr. has since added another $85 billion to the There are other unfamiliar cultural causes of aig But all of these familiar strategies simply bailout), we realize that Cassano was the erosion of our collective problem-solving don’t work against cultural obstacles. assuming that aig’s computer-based risk abilities. One is the growth of self-isolating models were protecting aig against every communities, as reported in a recent book Thus, we face a culture-driven erosion of our conceivable risk. by Bill Bishop called The Big Sort. Bishop problem-solving capabilities, and we lack points out that not only do people self-select the tools for dealing with it. The Wall Street Journal recently interviewed media that agree with their own views, lead- the man who developed the risk models for What would work best against this wide ar- ing to groupthink, but they also self-select aig, a professor of ½nance at Yale named ray of cultural obstacles? Gary Gorton. In the interview, Gorton ex- It seems to me that you have to ½ght culture plained that aig management had con½ned If people are unwilling to with culture. You can’t ½ght it with money his model to only one form of risk and ex- take responsibility for their or regulation or technical magic or putting a cluded the most serious ones. (For example, clever pr spin on our problems. The domain it totally excluded aig’s contracts that per- strong opinions and are im- of culture is a matter of ethics, values, belief mitted counterparties to demand more col- systems, philosophies, traditions, group lateral under certain conditions.) Gorton pulsive and opinionated in- practices, habits of the mind and heart, and also said that his model was based on a pe- social norms. To change the culture you riod of past history when credit rating agen- stead of thoughtful and re- have to change its norms. cies almost never downgraded bond ratings. sponsible, then a stronger Because his model left out counterparty de- III. mands for collateral and was based exclu- public voice is in fact a drag Reviving an American cultural tradition. I pro- sively on the past, the probabilities of fail- on our democracy, an invi- pose that we attempt to revive a traditional ure were unacceptably high. aig manage- American philosophy and habit of thought. ment took on faith the assumption that be- tation to pandering. Our problem-solving capabilities can, I be- cause gifted mathematicians were creating lieve, best be revitalized through what I call the models, they had to be valid. Their wish- communities where they can ½nd like-mind- “the new pragmatism.” Restoring our Ameri- ful thinking is overloaded with naïveté and ed people. With so many forces in society can pragmatic tradition is one of the few hubris. strengthening groupthink in so many differ- ent ways, dealing with this cultural issue be- strategies available to us that has the poten- aig The example of may be extreme, but it comes truly formidable. tial to overcome the kinds of cultural obsta- is far from unique. The naive infatuation cles I’ve been describing. with technology it illustrates, although hard- Finally, there is the cultural obstacle repre- Pragmatism is a distinctively American phi- ly new, is responsible for many of the worst sented by the reality that the baby boom losophy, cited by historian Henry Commager problems of the current ½nancial crisis. generation and its offspring are unaccus-

Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 27 Academy Meetings as America’s only major contribution to Being pragmatic also means opening your- If the public learning philosophy. In the ½rst decades of the 1900s, self to compromise, to incremental solutions, it enormously strengthened our nation’s to focusing on the art of the possible, and to curve does not advance problem-solving capabilities. Pragmatism being more concerned with solving concrete transcends polarization and heightens co- problems than with spinning grand visions. in keeping with the urgency operation. In recent years it has enjoyed a As far as it goes, this popular understanding vigorous revival in our universities. of the problem, the conse- of pragmatism is correct. But if pragmatism Let me give you a quick thumbnail sketch of meant nothing more than this, it would not quences can be disastrous what I mean by the “new pragmatism.” Prag- have the potential power to do what I hope matism is a one-hundred-year-old tradition it can do. Pragmatism has two other impor- for the country. of philosophy developed by four bold Amer- tant dimensions that can potentially produce ican thinkers: Charles Peirce; William James, the right kind of cultural change. ments in our culture? It will take innovative who introduced the term pragmatism during thinking at all levels of society, encompass- 1. A set of core values. Pragmatic philosophy is a 1907 lecture at Berkeley; John Dewey, who ing individual, commercial, public, non- strongly value-driven. John Dewey summed best personi½es pragmatism in practice; and pro½t, private, and institutional efforts, all up the relevant pragmatic values in one of his sociologist George Herbert Mead. From 1900 ½tting together in interlocking, interacting favorite phrases: “Democracy as a way of to 1930 under James’s and Dewey’s influence, ways. Government is one part of the process, life.” The core values of democracy as a way but just a small part of it. of life are: We face a culture-driven ero-  freedom of thought and action; IV. sion of our problem-solving  the opportunity to develop one’s own To ground our discussion in concrete realities capabilities, and we lack the gifts and capabilities; rather than abstractions, let me present you  trusting the judgment of the public; with two examples of pragmatism in action. tools for dealing with it.  a spirit of optimism; Reducing energy dependency. My ½rst example  faith in hope and cooperation; relates to several strategies for reducing our pragmatism was key to America’s social re- dependency on foreign oil. One is the T.  strong resistance to all forms of authori- forms. After World War II, however, it was Boone Pickens Plan and the other is the tarianism, ideology, and fundamental- ge brushed aside, particularly in academic phi- ism; and /Google Plan. losophy departments, as being outmoded, old-fashioned, and naive.  a strong utopian reformist strain. As context for these plans, here is a quick overview of our nation’s dependency on im- Interestingly, around 1980, pragmatism be- 2. A theory of knowledge. The second dimen- ported oil. sion of the “new pragmatism” consists of gan to be updated and revived in a number  The United States now imports 70 percent of academic disciplines. The American phil- its methodological/epistemological side, which includes the following elements: of our oil, compared with 24 percent in osopher Richard Rorty and the German phil- 1970. osopher Jürgen Habermas were major agents  a commitment to social experimentation  of change. Their influence led to a renewal of as a fundamental way of knowing; We consume 25 percent of the world’s oil demand yet comprise only 4 percent pragmatic philosophy not only in academic  a commitment to “communities of prac- of the world’s population. philosophy departments, but also in litera- tice”; ture, ethnic studies, management studies,  World oil production peaked in 2005.  a constantly evolving, rather than static, and, to some degree, the social sciences. Its The United States has only 2 percent of culture; vitality in the universities makes it somewhat the world’s oil reserves.  an acceptance of uncertainty and contin- easier to disseminate, because so often ideas  Our dependency on foreign oil represents gency rather than absolutes; and trends start in the universities and then the greatest transfer of wealth in human move out into the larger society.  a strong emphasis on context and circum- history, $700 billion a year to oil-produc- stances such that problems are examined What then is pragmatism? The popular un- ing nations, some of whom are quite hos- from a variety of points of view; and derstanding of pragmatism is correct, though tile to our interests. limited. To be pragmatic, according to the  a radical theory of truth that de½nes  This transfer of wealth will lead to an in- popular understanding, is to be practical and truth-concepts as tools for coping rather evitable decline of U.S. power, influence, action-oriented rather than theoretical; it than mirrors of reality. and leadership in the world. We cannot transfer this kind of wealth–unprece- means being experimental, willing to try How can this broad sweep of pragmatic dented in world history–and maintain a things out and see if they work. ideas, attitudes, and values spread beyond position of world leadership and influence. the academy and restore important lost ele-

28 Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 Academy Meetings

To alleviate the problem, the Pickens Plan rising price of oil, a national security threat of this sort, people do not form sound judg- substitutes wind power for natural gas in because major energy exporting countries ments speedily or on the basis of objective generating electricity and then uses natural are hostile to our interests, and a global warm- factual information. Information alone is not gas, which we have in abundance, as a trans- ing threat because oil and coal are major enough. The process is not only cognitive; portation fuel instead of oil. sources of the carbon emissions that are it is emotion-laden and value-driven. Before creating climate change. Adding to its com- people make up their minds and come to The ge/Google Plan, which is even bolder plexity is the fact that policies to address one judgment, they must pass through three and more far-reaching, is to generate all elec- of these three threats tend to undermine one stages of an extended process. tricity from renewable sources, using wind, of the others. For example, the United States solar, geothermal, and nuclear fuels, and to The ½rst stage is consciousness-raising. Factual has plenty of domestic coal that could help transform the entire automotive fleet to information is important in this stage in mak- reduce our dependence on imported oil, but plug-ins. ing people aware of the problem and its ur- coal seriously exacerbates the global warm- gency. But mere awareness is hardly enough These two plans are not trivial efforts. They ing threat. on issues that call for the kind of change and do not nibble at the edge of the problem, Countering the triple threat demands huge sacri½ce that can easily be frustrated by wish- but represent serious efforts at a solution. changes on the part of institutions and the ful thinking and denial. The bene½ts of the two plans are consider- public. Yet, some special interests have the A second stage follows consciousness-raising able. They would: incentive and the means to retard the pub- as people struggle with and work through the lic’s learning curve through obfuscation.  wean the United States off of fossil fuels, conflicting complexities of the issue. This is especially oil and coal; by far the longest and most dif½cult stage.  cut energy costs; The cultural impediments Only after it is complete do people reach the  create new industries and millions of eroding our problem-solving third stage of resolution, when their minds new jobs; are ½rmly made up.  improve our national security; abilities are formidable, and The length of time it takes to move through  reduce the transfer of wealth to other we cannot deal with them the three stages of the learning curve varies nations; and hugely from issue to issue. Some issues zip  help reverse global warming. one at a time. We need an through the three stages in a matter of a few months. At the other extreme, issues can get Accelerating the public’s learning curve. These are overall approach. bogged down for years and years. Indeed, the bold pragmatic plans with signi½cant bene- time required can vary by issue from mere ½ts. But the American public is not ready for For example, up to recently, Exxon paid sci- weeks and months to decades and even cen- them, and that brings me to the second ex- entists to take the contrarian side on debates turies. For example, issues such as slavery ample of pragmatism in action. It relates to about climate change, so when one scientist and women’s rights have taken centuries to the development of a new research tool to warns the public about the reality of global resolve. accelerate the public’s learning curve on ur- warming, an Exxon-paid scientist will claim gent issues such as the energy problem. The The key factor determining the length of that the threat is not real, and if real, not man- Public Agenda and Viewpoint Learning (or- time for an issue to reach resolution is the made. Even though the ½rst scientist may ganizations with which I am af½liated) are degree of emotional and political resistance represent the thinking of 99 percent of the conducting the research project. it encounters. If the resistance is minimal, scienti½c community, the debate is present- the issue can sail through the three stages. If ed as if the two points of view were evenly The new tool, called the “Public’s Learning the resistance is ½erce, the issue can be stalled balanced. The result is to confuse the hell out Curve,” is designed to cope with a subset of inde½nitely. On some proposals for policies of the public. People throw up their hands urgent issues that we refer to as “time-gap” to deal with the energy issue (such as raising in frustration. They say: “If the experts can’t issues. A time-gap issue is one where the taxes on gasoline) the public’s emotional agree, how can you expect us to agree on amount of time the public would ordinarily and political resistance is powerful. require to make the necessary changes and something so technical?” sacri½ces involved lags badly behind the ur- How then can we accelerate the learning On this and on many other issues, if the pub- gency of the problem. The energy problem curve on urgent issues like energy, where the lic learning curve does not advance in keep- is a clear example of a time-gap issue. need to move expeditiously through the ing with the urgency of the problem, the con- three phases is critical? One reason the public’s normal learning sequences can be disastrous for the country. curve is slow on this particular issue is that Our new research tool starts by monitoring The three stages of coming to judgment. In more it is so complex. Our dependence on foreign the public’s position on the learning curve than a half-century of studying public opin- energy sources poses a triple threat to our as it evolves over time. The research shows ion I have learned that on important issues society: an economic threat in the form of the that the public has made progress over the

Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 29 Academy Meetings

* * * * *

In summary, the cultural impediments eroding our problem-solving abilities are formidable, and we cannot deal with them one at a time. We need an overall approach.

The new pragmatism is a powerful way of approaching problems to transcend the neg- ative forces operating in today’s culture. I believe it provides the common ground we need to revitalize our national gift for prob- lem solving.

Since Barack Obama was elected President, the word pragmatic keeps cropping up. I be- lieve it symbolizes a new feeling in the country that it is time to move away from partisanship, ideology, and magic ½x-its. The mood suggests that Americans have decided that it is time to get down to work and start to cooperate to deal with our prob- past few years in the ½rst consciousness-  a feeling of lack of urgency; lems. raising stage (with considerable help from  normal resistance to change; and the media’s coverage of the issue). We are, hopefully, at the beginning of the  a great deal of mistrust. era of the new pragmatism. It is just beginning to confront the dif½cult These are not trivial obstacles, so the work- conflicts and changes called for in the sec- ing-through process will take an enormous ond stage. At this present stage of the learn- amount of time and effort. Our California- © 2009 by Jeffrey Elman and Daniel ing curve, a majority of the American public based research organization, Viewpoint Yankelovich, respectively says that it is willing to support a wide array Learning, Inc., has designed a series of ex- of incentives to improve energy ef½ciency, periments to accelerate the learning curve to reduce gasoline usage, and to encourage with small groups of people. We do this the development of alternative forms of en- through intensive eight-hour dialogues with ergy. But the public is not yet prepared for cross-sections of the public. In these dia- the trade-offs and challenges needed to make logues, average Americans engage the en- these proposals a reality. In other words, the ergy issue in great depth and struggle with public is just beginning to engage the con- the various obstacles and impediments. At flicts inherent in adopting new energy poli- the end of each dialogue session, we gather cies to ward off the triple threat. insights into how policy-makers can assist Our new research tool is designed to help the public to deal constructively with the the public encounter and work through the obstacles the issue presents. key impediments to climbing this second Based on these insights, we brief leaders on critical stage of the learning curve. Those how to keep the public’s expectations realis- impediments include: tic and how to overcome, step by step, the  wishful thinking and denial; major obstacles to change.  a lack of understanding of the complex- In addition to brie½ng leaders, we also con- ity of the problem; tribute to advancing “explanatory journal-  a lack of practical choices (people need ism,” which is a way of assisting the media to have concrete choices with which to to give the public a better understanding of wrestle); the context of the energy issue.  deliberate obfuscation;

 a tendency to grasp at straws;

30 Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 Academy Meetings

Andrei Sakharov: The Nuclear Legacy Matthew Bunn, František Janouch, Evgeny Miasnikov, and Pavel Podvig Welcome: Emilio Bizzi Introduction: Paul M. Doty This presentation was given at the 1930th Stated Meeting, held at the House of the Academy on October 24, 2008. Image © Bettmann/Corbis

Welcome

The Academy is pleased to be the site of the Much of Sakharov’s work parallels the Acad- International Andrei Sakharov Conference emy’s longstanding focus on arms control, and to collaborate with its sponsors: the De- nuclear energy, and nuclear weapons. This partment of Physics, Harvard University; the work continues with the Academy’s new Sakharov Program on Human Rights at the project, the Global Nuclear Future, led by Kathryn W. and Shelby Cullom Davis Center Steven Miller of Harvard University and for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Harvard Scott Sagan of Stanford University. The proj- University; and the Andrei Sakharov Foun- ect aims to identify ways to ensure that the dation. Andrei Sakharov was an esteemed global spread of nuclear energy does not re- Foreign Honorary Member of the American sult in corresponding increases in nuclear Academy. Soon after his important essay proliferation. Emilio Bizzi “Reflections on Progress, Peaceful Coexis- I want to acknowledge Professor Richard tence, and Intellectual Freedom” was pub- Emilio Bizzi is the 44th President of the American Wilson, who was instrumental in conceiv- lished in 1968, a Stated Meeting of the Acad- Academy of Arts and Sciences and Institute Pro- ing this conference, and introduce Professor emy discussed it, and when Sakharov left the fessor and Investigator at the McGovern Institute Paul Doty, who will chair this evening’s pro- Soviet Union for the ½rst time in November for Brain Research at the Massachusetts Institute gram. Paul’s career has developed along two 1988, his ½rst press conference was held at of Technology. He has been a Fellow of the Amer- tracks. One has been in biochemistry–he ican Academy since 1980. the Academy.

Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 31 Academy Meetings founded the Harvard University Department tons, the bomb destroyed everything within of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology–and a twenty-½ve-mile radius and set ½res and the other in science policy and international broke windows a hundred miles away. The security studies. Paul founded the Center explosive yield far exceeded that of all wars for Science and International Affairs at the that had ever been fought. Kennedy School of Government in 1974 and Seven years later, he wrote in his essay that is now the Center’s director emeritus. At the we celebrate at this conference: same time he has been a major player in the creation of the Academy’s Committee on The technical aspects of thermonuclear International Security Studies. As a gradu- weapons have made thermonuclear war ate student he was assigned to the Manhat- a peril to the very existence of humanity. tan Project, an experience that inspired his These aspects are: the enormous destruc- lifelong work aimed at averting nuclear war. tive power of a thermonuclear explosion, He served in government as Special Assis- the relative cheapness of nuclear-armed Matthew Bunn tant to the President on National Security long range missiles, and the practical im- and as a member of the President’s Science possibility of an effective defense against Matthew Bunn is Associate Professor of Public and Arms Control Advisory Committee. a massive missile-nuclear attack. Policy and Co-Principal Investigator of the Project on Managing the Atom at the Belfer Center for At that time the nuclear weapons stockpile Science and International Affairs at the Harvard of the United States numbered 30,000; the Kennedy School. Soviet Union, 10,000.

Now, forty years later, what is the situation? Presentation There has been some progress, but also there are new dangers. The numbers of weapons t is very humbling to be speaking at a in the arsenals and the means of delivery I conference celebrating Andrei Sakharov. have dropped from their peak by a factor of ½ve, and the yield of the weapons has been In a fairly well-known Science article from a much reduced. Most importantly, with the few years ago, Stephen Pacala and Robert end of the cold war the threat of a large-scale Socolow argued that if we want to stabilize U.S.-Soviet nuclear exchange has greatly di- climate, we need seven “wedges” of growing minished. However, it is not gone, as wit- contribution of carbon-free energy or ef½- nessed by the thousands of weapons still on ciency. To provide even one of those wedg- hair-trigger alert. An exchange at this level es, nuclear power would have to grow from still would risk ending the civilization that about 369 gigawatts today to some 1,100 gi- Paul M. Doty has taken thousands of years to build. gawatts in 2050. Providing two wedges is probably unobtainable given where the nu- Paul M. Doty is the Mallinckrodt Professor Emeri- But there are new dangers, caused by the clear industry is today. tus of Biochemistry and Director Emeritus of the nuclear capability of new countries, albeit International Security Program at the Belfer Cen- countries with minute stockpiles compared For the last several years, even though we ter for Science and International Affairs at the to those of the United States and Russia. have gone through the beginnings of a nu- Harvard Kennedy School. He has been a Fellow These dangers are seen as much more likely clear energy revival in a number of coun- of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences to lead to nuclear use–perhaps by the new tries, the number of actual reactors getting since 1951. possessor countries, but more likely by ter- attached to the energy grid has been about rorists who have gained possession and are four a year. That number needs to grow to Introduction not subject to being deterred by threats of twenty-½ve a year, every year from now un- retaliation. Moreover, with urban centers in- til 2050, if we want nuclear power to be even creasingly interdependent, the consequence one-seventh of the answer to the climate he session this evening is on the nuclear T of just one being destroyed would resonate problem. In order to do that, nuclear power legacy, and no one has a greater legacy than farther; rebuilding may not be possible. would have to become dramatically more at- Sakharov. The catalyst that generated Sakha- tractive to governments and utilities than it rov’s clarion call for a new world order, com- It is in this context that we turn to our speak- has been in recent years. And any major dis- mitted to respect for human rights and intel- ers to hear what is being done to reduce these aster, either by accident or from terrorism, lectual freedom, was, of course, the hydro- current risks. We hope that they may convey would doom the realistic prospect for that. gen bomb. The climax of his bomb design a flavor of and an update on many aspects of was, in 1961, the largest bomb ever built and what has been done to alleviate this remark- If nuclear power is attractive to developed tested. With a yield of more than 50 mega- able danger. countries, it’s very likely that it will be attrac-

32 Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 Academy Meetings

Safety has to be strengthened worldwide. lest practicable number of sites. There are Several issues will have to be Currently the international safety regime is efforts underway to do that, but we need to addressed–economics, safe- really not up to the task. For example, the expand the number of facilities those efforts International Atomic Energy Agency (iaea) cover, the kind of materials they cover, and ty, terrorism, proliferation, reviews the safety of reactors, but they have the policy tools they use. inspected only a fraction of reactors in the Ultimately we should seek over time to waste–in order for nuclear world because they review only the ones eliminate the civil use of highly enriched that nuclear states have asked them to. All uranium, or at least, when used, to have the power to grow enough to be power reactors today are members of an in- highest practicable levels of security that we dustry group called the World Association interesting with respect to demand in the military sector for civil use as of Nuclear Operators (wano). But there are well. Today that is certainly not the case. climate change. serious questions about the quality of the reviews by some of the regional groupings wano iaea tive to developing countries as well. Large- of . Recently the put together We need a fast-paced global scale growth, therefore, implies spread. Sev- what they call the Commission of Eminent eral countries have expressed interest in re- Persons, with which I was associated. The campaign to put effective se- cent years in nuclear power plants but haven’t Commission has recommended that we need iaea curity in place for every spot gotten them yet. The Middle East in partic- binding global standards for safety and ular is a hotbed of interest at the moment. safety review for all power reactors. where there’s a nuclear Several issues will have to be addressed–eco- Nuclear terrorism is also a very real danger. weapon or a signi½cant nomics, safety, terrorism, proliferation, waste Some people wonder how guys in caves –in order for nuclear power to grow enough could do what the Manhattan Project did. cache of nuclear weapons to be interesting with respect to climate The reality is that Mother Nature has been change. I’m going to focus on safety, terror- kind to us in that the essential ingredients of and materials, whether ism, and proliferation, which are some of nuclear weapons don’t exist in nature and the key risks that growth of nuclear energy are hard to make; but she’s been cruel to us that’s in a developing coun- on a large scale might pose. in that once you’ve gotten hold of them it’s not as hard to make a nuclear bomb as we try, a transition country, or First, how do we reduce accident risks even as would like it to be, especially if you have advanced developed states. we grow nuclear energy? This clearly was a highly enriched uranium. Al-Qaeda, for ex- major concern for Sakharov in the aftermath ample, has been very focused on attempting We also need to deal with sabotage risks. of the Chernobyl disaster. Nuclear power to get nuclear weapons, and has also consid- We need to upgrade rapidly the security of today is considerably safer than it was in the ered sabotaging nuclear reactors. I put out all high-consequence nuclear facilities, in- years of Three Mile Island or Chernobyl; an annual report, available online, on how cluding power reactors, spent-fuel pools, many different quantitative indicators make we’re doing around the world in locking and reprocessing plants. Some of these to- clear that’s the case. Nonetheless, there are down nuclear stockpiles that might be used day still do not have any armed guards on continuing issues. Some of you may have in a nuclear weapon. site. Many of them do not have the kind of heard of the Davis-Besse Nuclear Power We need to move quickly to reduce the risk design that makes it impossible for one ex- Station in Ohio, where a nuclear reactor was of terrorists turning a modern city into an- plosive to take out both of the redundant allowed to run without inspections for a long other Hiroshima. We need a fast-paced global safety systems, because they were designed period. Boric acid dripped onto the pressure campaign to put effective security in place with safety rather than sabotage in mind. vessel head and ate a football-sized hole in it, for every spot where there’s a nuclear weapon leaving only a quarter inch of steel to contain If I had to guess–and I admit that this is a or a signi½cant cache of nuclear weapons and the pressurized water in that reactor and guess: I don’t have the numbers to back it materials, whether that’s in a developing avoid a massive loss of coolant. up–I would argue that we have done enough country, a transition country, or advanced on safety that today the probability of a re- To avoid increasing the risk of accidents such developed states. There are some advanced ally big, Chernobyl-scale release happening as this, as you put more and more nuclear developed states where, for example, it is purely by accident is lower than the proba- power plants online, you need to strengthen still against the rules to have armed guards bility of it happening because somebody institutional approaches to ½nding and ½x- at a nuclear facility, even if hundreds of kilo- wanted to make it happen–that is, from ing problems. Most reactors are very safe, but grams of highly enriched uranium are there. sabotage. And if that’s true then we need a there’s a small number of reactors that aren’t. We need to establish effective global nuclear profound transformation in how the indus- I would argue that there are today somewhere security standards. Today there are no bind- try handles this kind of thing. In the indus- in the range of twenty to forty reactors that ing global standards for how secure nuclear try today, everyone is trained every single are providing something like 80 percent of the weapons and materials should be. We need day, from the day they enter the industry, on total global risk of a major reactor accident. to consolidate nuclear materials at the smal-

Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 33 Academy Meetings safety. They hear maybe a half-hour brie½ng mous fatalism out there that says, “Oh, states We want to make sure that once a year on security. The level of think- that want nuclear weapons are going to get ing about security, and the level of security them eventually; there’s nothing we can do.” large-scale growth of nuclear measures already in place, is not remotely It’s not true. We have been very successful comparable with safety training and precau- over the years. There’s a chance, if we take energy doesn’t lead to large- tions. These must be brought in line because the policy steps that we need to take now, fostering a security culture matters. that we can continue that success. It’s not scale spread of nuclear going to be easy: the world has changed Another key issue is nuclear proliferation. through globalization and the spread of weapons. We want to make sure that large-scale growth technology. But there is a chance, and we of nuclear energy doesn’t lead to large-scale can’t be fatalistic. Otherwise we will fail to But I think there’s a great deal that can be spread of nuclear weapons. And it’s not only take the necessary action that will help re- done in providing reliable assurances of fuel that nuclear energy poses a risk of prolifera- duce risk. supply and assurances that spent fuel can tion: proliferation poses a risk to nuclear be managed if sent away to someone else energy as well. If people equate increasing Recent proliferation crises have taught us through a fuel leasing program. That gives numbers of nuclear power plants with an lessons about which actions we should take. countries incentives to choose voluntarily increasing chance of the construction of nu- First, we need to engage the hard cases. Our not to invest in their own enrichment and clear bombs, they’re not going to back the failure in the Bush administration to engage reprocessing plants; those are the key tech- number of nuclear power plants that would with North Korea and Iran in any real way nologies for making nuclear bomb material. allow nuclear energy to be a signi½cant play- has led North Korea to quadruple (at least) er in addressing climate change. the amount of plutonium that it has available We need to toughen enforcement. When the for nuclear weapons; it’s led Iran to go from North Koreans ½rst were found to be in fair- zero to almost 4,000 centrifuges operating ly stark violation of the Nuclear Nonprolif- We need to upgrade rapidly at Natanz. eration Treaty in the early 1990s, the Security the security of all high-con- Council did almost nothing until many years We need to beef up nuclear security, to make later. Even now, Iran continues to ignore the sequence nuclear facilities, sure that every nuclear weapon, every cache Security Council’s legally binding require- of plutonium or highly enriched uranium, ment to suspend its enrichment program. including power reactors, is secure and accounted for. We need to strengthen nuclear safeguards. It’s remark- All of the steps I have just outlined, though, spent-fuel pools, and repro- able that today the iaea’s budget for safe- only slow things down. What we really must guarding all nuclear material worldwide is do is reduce demand. Convincing states that cessing plants. about the same as the budget of the Indianap- it was in their interest not to have nuclear olis Police Department. And the authority of weapons has, today, yielded more states that There are major challenges to the nonprolif- the iaea is remarkably limited as well. started nuclear weapons programs and then eration regime today, but the regime has gave them up than states with nuclear weap- We need to take new steps to stop black-mar- been a lot more successful than many peo- ons. Yet there’s a lot more work to be done. ket nuclear networks. The A. Q. Khan net- ple realize. Today there are nine states with For a start, stopping our habit of reserving work was operating in some twenty countries nuclear weapons; twenty years ago there the right to invade sovereign states would, in for twenty years before it was taken down, were nine states with nuclear weapons. That’s my view, be a good place to make headway making clear that the global export control an amazing public policy success. Think toward reducing demand. There was a senior system is, in the words of the Director Gen- about it: we got through the collapse of the Indian general who remarked that the lesson eral of the iaea, broken. There’s a lot we Soviet Union and all the chaos that followed; of the Iraq war was if you think you might end need to do with international policing, intel- the secret nuclear weapons programs in up on the wrong side of the United States, ligence cooperation, and establishing export Iraq, Iran, and Libya; and the whole period you’d better get nuclear weapons. controls. We’ve never worried before about of activity of the A. Q. Khan network with export controls in countries like Malaysia or And, fundamentally, we need to keep our end no increase in the net number of states with Dubai, which were key nodes of the A. Q. of the nonproliferation bargain, which in- nuclear weapons–an amazing public policy Khan network. volves disarmament. It is very unlikely that success. we will get the support that’s needed from We need to do what we can to stem the spread There are more states today that started nu- the non-nuclear weapon states, for all the of enrichment and reprocessing. This needs clear weapons programs and veri½ably agreed sorts of things that involve more inconven- to be done carefully because the non-nuclear to give them up than there are states with iences, increased costs, tougher export con- weapon states will not tolerate dividing the nuclear weapons. That means our efforts to trols, and more stringent inspections, if we world again into haves and have-nots, into stem the spread of nuclear weapons succeed are not willing to accept some constraints countries that are allowed to have enrichment more often than they fail. Yet there’s enor- on our own nuclear policies. and reprocessing and countries that are not.

34 Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 Academy Meetings

But if we do all this, if we put the right poli- all of those institutions in place we can en- Thirty years later, the situation has changed cies in place, I believe there’s a realistic hope joy a growing contribution from safe, secure, dramatically: politicians and people in the that in twenty years from now we may still and peaceful nuclear energy. I think we don’t West now understand much better that both have only nine nuclear weapon states–and know yet whether we can or cannot solve the our freedom and political independence are maybe fewer. climate problem without nuclear energy. very much related to the energy needed to But it would certainly be a lot harder if we keep our societies running normally. Links If people equate increasing didn’t have a contribution from nuclear en- between energy and independence are now ergy. It is the largest source of baseload low- much better understood in the West, and numbers of nuclear power carbon electricity supply that can be readily the relationship between energy and econo- expanded and that is available today. mic and political independence is no longer plants with an increasing questioned. What still is questioned, how- chance of the construction ever–at least in some countries–is where to get our energy: coal, lng, wind, sun, or of nuclear bombs, they’re nuclear. not going to back the num- Politicians and people in the ber of nuclear power plants West now understand much that would allow nuclear better that both our freedom energy to be a signi½cant and political independence player in addressing climate are very much related to the change. energy needed to keep our That brings us to the challenge of disarma- societies running normally. ment. States that have nuclear weapons František Janouch aren’t going to give them up unless they František Janouch was a Professor ofPhysics at think it’s in their security interest to do so. When I came to the West I was invited by the Manne Siegbahn Institute of Physics (Royal We need to build a structure of internation- many leftist and environmental groups to Institute of Technology) in Stockholm, Sweden, al security that makes it in their interest. lecture about energy. In the mid-1970s, and a senior scientist at the Institute of Nuclear We need to rethink the risks of the status quo, many of these leftist or green environmental Physics in Rez near Prague. He is currently the of inde½nite maintenance of large stockpiles groups assumed that I, a dissident, would Chairman of the Charter 77 Foundation in Prague, of nuclear arms. support their struggle against nuclear power. Czech Republic, and the Czech Government Coor- When I didn’t, they assumed that I was not This is going to require a lot: detailed analy- dinator of the European Nuclear Energy Forum, a proper dissident and that Sakharov’s atti- ses of how we get there from here; questions which convenes every spring in Prague. tude toward nuclear energy would be differ- of how we do the veri½cation, including so- ent from mine. “We did not expect a dissi- cietal veri½cation–not just satellites and in- Presentation dent to defend nuclear energy. That may be spectors and so on. That ultimately gets us your opinion, but what would Andrei Sakha- back to Sakharov because it calls for an un- rov say about nuclear energy?” My answer: precedented level of openness, international L et me begin with a little background “Andrei Dmitrievich is a physicist, so he cooperation, and freedom of thought. Peo- about myself: for several years, I was unem- would certainly have views similar to mine. ple are going to have to say, “Even though ployed in Prague for political reasons. In 1975, But I cannot speak for him.” it’s my own country that’s doing wrong, I with an invitation from the Royal Swedish have to report it.” That’s an attitude that to- Academy of Sciences, I came to Sweden; later This is why, in 1976, I contacted Andrei Sak- day doesn’t exist in many countries and will that year I was stripped of my Czechoslovak harov through our “dissident post.” I ex- have to be built over time. citizenship. plained why it was important for him to for- mulate his attitude toward nuclear energy in In short, we need a new nuclear order that My ½rst article published in Swedish was en- a short article, understandable to both the involves more transparency, more openness, titled “Energy, Freedom and Independence.” general public and to politicians. I told him more international cooperation, stronger I had a lot of discussions with my Swedish that a statement about his position on nu- international institutions, and reduced num- friends and with Swedish politicians about clear energy would be very important to bers, roles, and readiness of nuclear weapons. its content–they could not grasp how ener- Western countries. In December 1977, I re- I’d like to see all nuclear weapons taken off gy could be linked with such “abstract” terms ceived a four-page paper from him. At the quick reaction alert. I hope that if we can put as freedom and independence.

Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 35 Academy Meetings end, he added a note that has become very paper was subsequently published, almost Many people do not fully important: “For František, with best wishes exactly thirty years ago, in many leading and with feelings of solidarity. You should newspapers and journals around the world. understand that nuclear publish this paper in many countries. Andrei Andrei Sakharov is very clear about the im- Sakharov.” energy provides much more portance of nuclear energy; he connected In 1977, Westerners, and especially U.S. “dis- nuclear energy with freedom in the West. security and safety than oil, sidents”–by that I mean protesters against Today, this wisdom and knowledge are slow- the war in Vietnam–suddenly felt them- ly returning to Europe and to the United natural gas, and coal–the selves unemployed and useless. The Viet- States. Many people do not fully understand nam War was over. They did not know where that nuclear energy provides much more se- supplies of which can be to direct their tremendous social power: curity and safety than oil, natural gas, and blocked very easily. hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, coal–the supplies of which can be blocked of young people, full of energy and enthusi- very easily. and visited Chernobyl. We spent a night asm, believing in freedom, justice, and a Many years ago, the European Parliament there, and we were even allowed to go inside better, socially just future. established the Andrei Sakharov Prize for the Sarkofag. (Dick had a dosimeter with Unfortunately, with the encouragement of Human Rights, which is awarded yearly to him and was frequently taking measure- Jane Fonda and individuals from Green- distinguished human right activists. The ments; I also remember we had to shower peace, the young “unemployed” started to European Union also provides support, with carefully afterward.) We had a number of direct their energy against the peaceful use billions of Euros, to another large interna- enlightening discussions with nuclear spe- of nuclear power. It was not against the tional project that is closely related to Sak- cialists in Chernobyl. In Moscow, we tried stockpiles of nuclear weapons, at that time harov: namely, research of the fusion reac- to persuade the Sakharov Congress that nu- consisting of tens of thousands of nuclear tor, based on Sakharov’s Tokamak idea. clear energy is an important part of the bombs, many of which were a thousand world energy supply. In spite of Sakharov’s fame (and his Nobel times stronger than the Hiroshima bomb! Prize), for almost thirty years the West ne- It is dif½cult now to split Europe into East glected Sakharov’s clear warning that nu- and West, new and old. The European Union Andrei Sakharov is very clear energy provides a certain degree of is today the largest producer of nuclear pow- freedom and security for the West. Most er; it produces eight times more nuclear- clear about the importance European and American politicians do not generated electricity than North America, understand that energy in nature is pro- three times more than Japan, and almost of nuclear energy; he con- eu duced only by ½ssion or fusion–even geo- seven times more than Russia. Only four nected nuclear energy with thermal heat is produced by the decay of ra- countries use nuclear power plants for more dioactive nuclei dissipated inside the earth. than 50 percent of their total electricity pro- freedom in the West. duction. In the eu overall, 35 percent of elec- By 1986, Sakharov’s paper had been pub- tricity production is from nuclear power. lished in at least ten countries. The paper I translated Sakharov’s paper and sent it to caused a conflict between Heinrich Böll and Nuclear power is attractive for several rea- Der Spiegel, one of the largest and most re- Andrei Sakharov, with Böll writing an open sons: nuclear reactors are safe; nuclear spected journals in Germany, and simulta- letter to Sakharov, Sakharov answering with power is the cheapest way to produce elec- neously to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. one, and so on. At the time, Western Europe tricity; investments in built reactors are I knew the editors-in-chief of both journals was hesitating whether or not to go nuclear mostly amortized; nuclear energy has a very personally. To my great surprise and disap- –the ussr and Eastern Europe were going stable cost structure; nuclear power plants pointment, both publications were infected nuclear. In 1986, two months after the Cher- can be and are modernized at very reason- with anti-nuke ideology. They refused to nobyl disaster, the Swedish Foreign Policy able cost; and plant lifetimes are on the or- publish Sakharov’s article because they did Institute published a booklet of mine on nu- der of sixty to seventy years. not believe it was written by Andrei Sakharov. clear power in the Soviet Union and Europe Only after I sent a copy of Sakharov’s manu- Thirteen countries in Europe are using nu- entitled “In the Shadow of Chernobyl”; my script with his handwritten note to me did clear energy: Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, original title had been “East Goes Nuclear.” both journals change their mind and publish Finland, France, Lithuania, Hungary, The his paper: in fact, the Bulletin of the Atomic Andrei Sakharov left us prematurely in De- Netherlands, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Scientists printed it as a front page story and cember 1989. In May 1991 a large interna- Greece, Great Britain, and Switzerland. eu chose a green color for the front cover. It is tional Andrei Sakharov Memorial Congress (Switzerland is not in the , but closely co- eu interesting that thirty years later nuclear was convened in Moscow. Richard Wilson operates with it.) Four countries in the power would be considered, at least by most and I co-chaired two or three sessions on are planning to phase out nuclear energy. reasonable and educated people, as one of nuclear energy at the Memorial Congress. (There were ½ve countries, but Great the “greenest” energy sources. Sakharov’s Before the Congress, Dick and I met in Kiev Britain has changed its mind and is collabo-

36 Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 Academy Meetings rating with France.) It is conceivable that There is a danger that dete- Sweden and other countries will have to re- consider stopping or canceling their com- rioration of transparency mitment to phase out nuclear energy. In any case, we have four eu countries plus Turkey will spoil U.S.-Russian rela- ready to join the nuclear club and begin building nuclear power plants. tions with more distrust and

The European Nuclear Energy Forum suspicion, and will kill many (enef) was established recently by the Eu- ropean Commission to promote nuclear future mutually bene½cial power in Europe. At its ½rst meeting in cooperation projects. Prague in May 2008 there were more than 250 participants, among them six prime Where were we forty years ago and where ministers. All of the participants received Evgeny Miasnikov are we now in terms of reducing the risk of Sakharov’s paper, along with background Evgeny Miasnikov is Senior Research Scientist at nuclear war between the United States and stories and a facsimile of his original text. the Center for Arms Control, Energy, and Envi- Russia? It took two decades from when Sak- The Forum will meet twice a year in Prague ronmental Studies at the Moscow Institute of harov’s paper came out in 1968 to reverse and in Bratislava. I was nominated by the Physics and Technology. the nuclear arms race and begin reduction. Czech government as a coordinator of the This was accomplished through the pains- Prague session. I believe that these regular taking work of diplomats, politicians, and meetings will support the renaissance of Presentation scientists who managed to establish a bilat- nuclear power in Europe. eral process of arms control negotiations. I think that the plans to increase the use of It is well known that Andrei Dmitrievich By the end of the 1980s, these mutual efforts nuclear energy are impressive in Eastern Eu- Sakharov understood well the consequences brought both sides to the understanding rope, France, Great Britain, Italy, Russia, In- of a global nuclear war. In his 1968 paper he that there are too many nuclear weapons dia, and especially in China. Thirty years gave primary importance to this disastrous and that signi½cant, irreversible, and veri- later, Sakharov’s prophecy is on its way to threat. In order to avoid the disaster, he urged, ½ed reductions would be bene½cial for both being understood and ful½lled in Europe. mankind must overcome its divisions as an sides. This was also the time when the Unit- initial step from the nuclear brink. ed States and Russia signed the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty, which eliminated the I think Sakharov’s ideals are total class of land-based missiles of medium and short range. The Strategic Arms Reduc- still key to ½nding solutions tion Treaty (start) reduced strategic nu- on the way toward a nuclear- clear forces of both sides by almost half. In 1991, Mikhail Gorbachev and George weapons-free world today. H.W. Bush announced deep cuts of non- strategic nuclear weapons. At almost the Sakharov wrote that certain changes must same time the sides stopped nuclear testing be made in the conduct of international af- and producing ½ssile materials for weapons fairs. He believed in systematically subordi- purposes. Most importantly, serious coop- nating all concrete aims and local tasks to eration began between the U.S. Department the basic task of actively preventing the ag- of Energy and the Russian Ministry of Atomic gravation of the international situation. He Energy. Perhaps the most signi½cant achieve- wanted to pursue and expand peaceful coex- ment was the Russian-U.S. highly enriched istence. He championed a level of coopera- uranium purchase agreement. Under this tive policy-making whose effects, immedi- agreement,500 tons of excess weapons–high- ately and in the long term, would neither ly enriched uranium–are being blended sharpen tensions nor create dif½culties that down to low enriched uranium and shipped would strengthen the forces of reaction, mili- to the United States for making power reac- tarism, nationalism, fascism, and revanchism tor fuel. for either side. I think Sakharov’s ideals are still key to ½nding solutions on the way to- Though nuclear reductions have been a bi- ward a nuclear-weapons-free world today. lateral process, perhaps most dramatic are the changes in the Russian arsenal. Russia

Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 37 Academy Meetings has signi½cantly reduced its strategic nu- had too many nuclear weapons and both I think, is to de½ne the scope of the Treaty. clear forces over the period of two decades, thought that they had more to bene½t than For example, should it include only opera- and this is due mostly to start. Though to lose if they made cuts to their arsenals. tionally deployed nuclear warheads, as the start was negotiated and signed during This doesn’t seem to be the case these days U.S. side insists? Or should it also limit all the cold war, it continues to play a signi½- with respect to the Russian side. Almost 90 deployed strategic systems, as start did cant role since the Treaty has a robust and percent of Russian nuclear forces are still and as the Russian side wants? ef½cient veri½cation system, which includes, the legacy of the cold war and the heritage Before I ½nish, let me say a bit about negoti- among other things, twelve types of inspec- of the Soviet Union. The current rate of re- ating attitudes. For the time being, Russia tions, noti½cations, data exchange, and co- tirement of strategic systems is signi½cantly plays an active role in stimulating the dia- operative measures. start’s veri½cation higher than the rate of new production. And logue. In fact, the Russian side still wants to mechanism provides a basis for retaining this trend is going to last for at least the next discuss a broad agenda with the U.S. side, predictability and maintaining stability in ten years. Russian policy-makers feel more covering the whole list of issues of strategic U.S.-Russian relations. If start ends in De- and more concerned about the survivability stability, which includes limits on strategic cember 2009, as it is slated to, its veri½cation of future remaining forces. This is why there delivery systems, missile defenses, conven- mechanism and transparency will be lost. is such strong opposition to U.S. plans to de- tional precision-guided weapons, antisub- ploy ballistic missile defenses in Europe and Russia’s stockpile of non-strategic nuclear marine warfare, and space weapons. This why Russia is so concerned about U.S. reluc- weapons was never of½cially declared. Ac- is about renewing a dialogue that was cut tance to set up limits on development of cording to our estimates, that stockpile short after the current Republican adminis- conventional precision-guided strategic doesn’t exceed 3,000 to 4,000 warheads, tration came to power in 2000. For well- weapons. and it’s diminishing. Russia also never re- known reasons, the Bush administration leased numbers on the quantity of highly was not interested in discussing this broad enriched uranium and weapons-grade plu- Almost 90 percent of Rus- agenda with the Russians. What the U.S. tonium it produced. The best estimates put side perhaps is still interested in is separat- the ½gure for the time being at about 945 tons sian nuclear forces are still ing the veri½cation system of start (leav- of highly enriched uranium, plus or minus the legacy of the cold war ing aside its limitation) and linking this sys- 300 tons. Russia’s weapons-grade plutonium tem to the Moscow Treaty. But this is ex- stock is estimated at a level of 145 tons, plus and the heritage of the actly what the Russian side wants to avoid. or minus 20 tons, of which 34 tons were de- Will the new U.S. administration be inter- clared by Russia as excessive for weapon Soviet Union. ested in reviving the arms-control dialogue purposes. with Russia? There is hope, but this is an Russia perceives both of these U.S. actions Nuclear arms reduction still has some mo- open question. There is, however, another as building up counterforce capability aimed mentum. Nevertheless, the environment for dif½cult question that is rarely asked: Will at depriving Russia’s nuclear forces. In this this reduction is going to change. U.S. and the Russian side keep its positive attitude context, it is interesting to recall the views Russian nuclear arsenals are going to be smal- toward arms-control dialogue with the of Andrei Dmitrievich Sakharov toward bal- ler, but much less transparent. And there is a United States in the future? In my opinion listic missile defenses, conventional capabili- danger that deterioration of transparency will there is a strong possibility that Russia will ties, and the nuclear arms reduction process. spoil U.S.-Russian relations with more dis- lose its interest in such a dialogue. Its nuclear It is well known that Sakharov was very skep- trust and suspicion, and will kill many future forces will be smaller than now, but surviv- tical about ballistic missile defenses; he urged mutually bene½cial cooperation projects. ability of the smaller force will be ensured for limiting their deployment. But what I ½nd by minimizing transparency. Russia might Why is this happening now, when neither interesting is that Sakharov also advocated take a similar approach as China has, for ex- Russia nor the United States is interested in for the importance of counting convention- ample. If this happens, certainly we have to bee½ng up its nuclear forces? Andrei Dmitri- al weapons in order to achieve nuclear re- forget about mutual inspections, noti½ca- evich Sakharov raised a rhetorical question. ductions. Sakharov was a proponent of a tions, and limits on deployment. At best, Of course it would be wiser to agree now to balanced approach in nuclear reductions. with regard to strategic forces, the situation reduce nuclear and conventional weapons In fact, attempts to ignore these principles will become similar to that of tactical weap- and to eliminate nuclear weapons entirely. will make deeper cuts to nuclear weapons ons. But there is a prominent difference. But is that possible in a world now poisoned impossible. This is already happening these Strategic forces will be on high alert, ready with fear and mistrust? I think a similar days as the United States and Russia discuss start to eliminate the other side within minutes. question can be raised these days. You may the future of . argue that in the late 1980s, when the Soviet We know that discussions are going on, but Union and the United States concluded sev- at a very slow pace. Though these discussions eral arms reduction agreements, there was are con½dential, from the leaks to the press an even deeper mistrust than now. This is it is quite straightforward to ½nd out the true. But at that time both sides felt like they areas of disagreement. The hardest problem,

38 Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 Academy Meetings

and Zababakhin in the discussion. It was a tence, and Intellectual Freedom,” the an- closed discussion, though, and as far as I can niversary of which we celebrate today, he tell, the problem was that while the scientists speci½cally mentioned the dangers of a nu- apparently were quite skeptical about the clear arms race and the role that missile de- potential of missile defenses it was clear fense could play in that process. that the scientists’ impact on the debate was Now let’s skip quite a few important years not as large as they probably hoped for–and and go to the next step in the missile defense not as large as they saw in earlier discussions debate, namely the Strategic Defense Initia- of military issues. Part of the reason for that tive (sdi), the Star Wars program that ap- was that by the late 1970s the military-in- peared in 1983. By that time Sakharov was dustrial complex in the Soviet Union was no longer an insider. He was in Gorky, in ex- taking over these issues and was growing ile, but he was a very visible outsider. When stronger. Gorbachev came to power in 1985, he saw Pavel Podvig that the Soviet military complex was very happy about Star Wars, and there was a very Pavel Podvig is Research Associate and Acting As- Conventional wisdom in strong push to have a similar Soviet program. sociate Director for Research at the Center for In- Soviet diplomatic and mili- Conventional wisdom in Soviet diplomatic ternational Security and Cooperation in the Free- and military circles was that as long as the man Spogli Institute for International Studies at tary circles was that as long sdi was out there the Soviet Union couldn’t Stanford University. as the SDI was out there the limit or start reducing its offensive nuclear forces. Gorbachev attempted to counter Presentation Soviet Union couldn’t limit that by trying to limit the sdi and trying to sdi or start reducing its offensive convince Reagan that the should be dis- I would like to focus on Sakharov’s role in continued. He failed, most spectacularly the missile defense debate. As you know, the nuclear forces. perhaps in Reykjavik in October 1986. subject just doesn’t want to go away. Missile It is not entirely coincidental that Sakharov defense is a fairly complex, challenging issue was released briefly after the Reykjavik Sum- In that discussion, scientists made a strong if you take it in the context of the nuclear mit, because human rights issues were an case that the Soviet missile defense program confrontation. It is only appropriate that important part of the meeting between Gor- at the time was very problematic. But lead- Sakharov was part of that discussion. bachev and Reagan. Importantly, Sakharov ership and the industry were not particu- was, to the extent that he could be, skeptical Sakharov’s involvement in this particular is- larly interested in taking any steps to limit about the missile defense system. He was sue began in the late 1960s, and it wasn’t the defenses. As far as we can tell today, what skeptical about the impact that that system ½rst time he took a strong position on the is- was important for Sakharov and for some of could make, to the extent that it could be sue. We know that he was very active in the his colleagues at the time was that the lead- useful militarily. issue of atmospheric nuclear tests, too. But ership was not very interested in taking the when the missile defense issue came forward opportunity to start limiting the offensive around 1967, his involvement was a bit dif- nuclear forces and begin nuclear disarma- Sakharov saw value in nu- ferent. ment that would reduce the danger of nu- clear war. That was probably one of the rea- His particular contribution at that time was clear deterrence and in sons why Sakharov tried to extend his case a letter he wrote in 1967 to the Politburo on beyond that closed discussion, limited to strategic balance. missile defense, arguing that the Soviet Union the military-industrial complex. But his should take the U.S. offer that was on the open letter on the subject of missile defense table at the time (or was discussed at the In fact, Sakharov was skeptical about all of was not published. Mikhail Suslov, the ad- time), which would limit missile defenses. the fancy directed-energy weapon technolo- dressee of the letter, said there was no inter- If you step back a bit and look at the context gies even before Reagan announced them in est in publishing it, and, in turn, reinforced of this, it was the time when there was a very March 1983. Sakharov criticized the idea of the perception that the leadership and the heated debate between the Soviet military defense, speci½cally the illusion that defense military-industrial complex were not par- and military industry and Soviet leadership could solve any problems. At the same time, ticularly interested in reducing the danger about military strategy and the way the So- Sakharov was very critical of the Soviet po- of nuclear war. Maybe that wasn’t the main viet Union should build its nuclear forces. sition that linked the issue of missile defense reason for Sakharov to become more public to reductions of offensive forces, which he What is interesting is that scientists were about these issues, but it certainly was one saw as counterproductive. He criticized both actively involved in that debate. Sakharov of the reasons. Then in 1968, in his essay sides, and he was very open about that. himself referred to his colleagues Khariton “Reflections on Progress, Peaceful Coexis-

Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 39 Academy Meetings

I should say that Sakharov was certainly not Stone was sent to Gorbachev, who read it the analyses between fusion and ½ssion have a paci½st at that time. Indeed he saw value and made notes. What is interesting is that not been done on the same level of detail, in nuclear deterrence and in strategic bal- was how Gorbachev actually learned about there would be quite a few advantages ulti- ance. At some point in his letter to Sid Drell those issues. There were not very many ways mately with fusion. But there are a lot of in 1983, he basically said that if preventing that he could do that, so that transcript was technological and economic challenges to nuclear war would require ½fteen more years an important contribution of Sakharov’s as go before we’re in a world powered by ther- of a nuclear arms race, so be it. Preventing well. monuclear power. nuclear war was a very important issue for I think what is important in Sakharov’s po- him. sition is that he recognized very early on that Question On some occasions, he advocated putting missile defense is a problem, not a solution. There is a type of nuclear peril that our ½rst pressure on the Soviet Union to force it to The only effect of missile defense is that it two speakers ignored: the fact that if you restrain its nuclear programs or their expan- disrupts stability and order, and it prevents want to build–as we need to–½ssion reac- sion. But what’s interesting–and what’s im- real steps toward nuclear disarmament, tors, they don’t exist on the market. You all portant–is that he never really advocated which Sakharov believed was the real goal speak as if you could get them off the shelf. using missile defense as a bargaining point and the real necessity. This is true still today. There are basically two reactors that you of that pressure. As far as I can tell, he never We should be working on the current missile could, let’s say, order. One, the ap1000, is said that the United States should build up defense system, stepping back and looking from Westinghouse, and the ½rst prototype missile defense (or at least the rhetoric be- at Sakharov’s attitude toward missile defens- has yet to be built. Another one is from hind missile defense) to influence Soviet de- es and applying it to the current solution. areva in France, and is called the epr– cisions at the time. which they’re barely building. If you want Question to make a pressure vessel there is only one Sakharov advocated put- company in the world, in Japan, that can do What would development of thermonuclear it. I think this is a real peril that should be energy do to concerns about the safe use of ting pressure on the Soviet taken into account since we need nuclear nuclear energy? Which steps that have been power. Union to force it to restrain described would still be necessary or applica- ble? Of mechanisms developed to safeguard its nuclear programs or nuclear energy, which would still be impor- Matthew Bunn their expansion. tant and applicable in the case of thermonu- I wouldn’t describe it as a peril so much as a clear energy? What kind of new issues might bottleneck. There are actually four major There is another interesting document of arise? companies that you can get modern nuclear around that same time. Two months after reactors from, not just two: there are the Sakharov was released, there was a forum Matthew Bunn against nuclear war in Moscow. In his apart- I think that fusion has for so long been “50 We don’t have the nuclear ment, Sakharov met with Frank von Hippel years out” that analyses of those subjects are and Jeremy Stone, and there is a kgb tran- inspectors that we are going at a much more primitive stage than they are script of the conversation. (I guess that for for the nuclear power that’s here today. There any of you who ever had conversations with to need to carry out the kinds were some fairly detailed analyses done joint- Sakharov in his apartment, there probably ly by U.S., Soviet, and European scientists, is a kgb transcript of those conversations of measures that are required including Wolf Hafele and Evgeniy Velikhov, as well.) Stone and von Hippel tried to con- comparing a thermonuclear-fueled future for the nuclear future we’d vince Sakharov that the Soviet Union should versus a future fueled by ½ssion breeders drop the link between the sdi and offensive all like to have. and plutonium. I think that there are a lot of forces. Sakharov didn’t really need any con- potential advantages on the safety front, the vincing, but he gave von Hippel a very hard Russians after all. But all of the major com- waste front, the terrorist risk front, and the time, questioning him on details of his model panies have constraints on their capacity. proliferation front. But of course fusion, like of nuclear exchange and his numbers on ca- There’s no way that we can go to twenty- ½ssion, is a potential source of neutrons. So sualties during a nuclear war. Sakharov had ½ve reactors a year any time in the next few a country that wanted to use a fusion plant some very interesting remarks about such years. That would mean building forty or to produce plutonium would probably ½nd topics as acceptable damage, showing his ½fty reactors a year toward the end of the a way to arrange to do that. However, it would strong technocratic side. But again, he was period in order to reach an average of twen- probably be very easy to design a fusion plant very clear on the point that the sdi was not ty-½ve a year throughout the period. There so that you couldn’t do that without being worth the hype that was around it. His re- are companies that are soon to compete with obvious and requiring some signi½cant modi- marks were very important, and the tran- Japan Steel Works on making the pressure ½cations to the facility. So my guess is, while script of his meeting with von Hippel and vessels, but it’ll take time.

40 Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 Academy Meetings

There is the people issue as well, not just the bottleneck on the pressure vessels. There Letter of Acceptance from Andrei Sakharov are a lot of people in this industry about to retire or already retired, and the new gener- ation coming along is much smaller. They won’t be enough for a growing nuclear en- ergy enterprise or a growing disarmament enterprise. More than half of the inspectors at the International Atomic Energy Agency will reach the mandatory retirement age in the next ½ve years. This is a crisis. We don’t have the nuclear inspectors that we are going to need to carry out the kinds of measures that are required for the nuclear future we’d all like to have.

Question When you think about the cost of nuclear reactors, based on the French experience of spending an estimated $4 billion on each one, it seems to me, if you were to build ½ve, six, eight, or ten a year to meet the energy demands that we have, it’s actually cheaper, better, safer from all points of view to put those billions of dollars into solar, wind, and wave energy, which are decentralized and not subject to the threats of terrorism. Sena- tor McCain talked about building forty-½ve reactors in the United States, and Rosatom wants to build one hundred reactors all by 2030; this amounts to hundreds of billions of dollars. One last comment: there is one other state that generates more than half of its energy from nuclear power, and that’s Vermont.

Matthew Bunn

The climate challenge is so big and daunting to a world 85 percent dependent on fossil fu- els that we need every technology we have ply of energy. Wind power is a maximum of available. We cannot yet rule out any of the 10 or 15 percent effective, and I cannot imag- things that we have available; we need to ine that you can get this amount of energy work as hard as we can on ef½ciency, solar, from wind power. Remember that at pres- wind–and nuclear power. ent 80 percent of energy produced globally is used by only 20 percent of the world’s František Janouch population. And vice versa: 80 percent of the global population is using only 20 per- The net increase in the global population is cent of the energy produced. about 250,000 a day. Every day the average consumption of electricity or production capacity grows by two kilowatts. Every sec- © 2009 by Emilio Bizzi, Paul M. Doty, ond day we need to build an additional 1,000 Matthew Bunn, František Janouch, Evgeny megawatts just to maintain the present sup- Miasnikov, and Pavel Podvig, respectively

Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 41 Noteworthy

As of press time, several Fellows Select Prizes and Awards Susan Fiske (Princeton Univer- Barbara Liskov (Massachusetts of the Academy, listed below, sity) was awarded a 2009 Gug- Institute of Technology) is the have been invited to serve in Robert Alter (University of Cali- genheim Fellowship. recipient of the 2008 Association fornia, Berkeley) is the recipient for Computing Machinery’s senior roles in President Barack Peter Galison (Harvard Univer- of the 29th annual Los Angeles A.M. Turing Award. Obama’s administration. They sity) was awarded a 2009 Gug- Times Book Prizes’ Robert Kirsch are in addition to the Fellows genheim Fellowship. Richard Losick (Harvard Univer- Award for lifetime achievement. listed in the Winter 2009 issue sity) was named one of the Can- Henry Louis Gates, Jr. (Harvard of the Bulletin. Kwame Anthony Appiah (Prince- ada Gairdner International Award University) was named the 2009 ton University) was awarded the winners by the Gairdner Foun- Rosina Bierbaum (University of winner of the Frank E. Taplin, Jr. Joseph B. and Toby Gittler Prize dation. Michigan): Member of the Pres- Public Intellectual Award by the by Brandeis University. ident’s Council of Advisors on Woodrow Wilson Foundation. Arno G. Motulsky (University of Science and Technology John Ashbery (Bard College) is Washington) is the recipient of Laura Greene (University of Illi- the recipient of the 2009 Harvard the American College of Medical Rebecca M. Blank (Brookings In- nois at Urbana-Champaign) was Arts Medal. Genetics Foundation Lifetime stitution): Under Secretary for awarded a 2009 Guggenheim Achievement Award. Economic Affairs, Department Ruzena Bajcsy (University of Cal- Fellowship. of Commerce ifornia, Berkeley) was awarded Mark S. Ptashne (Memorial Mikhail L. Gromov (Institut des the 2009 Benjamin Franklin Med- Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center) William F. Brinkman (Princeton Hautes Études Scienti½ques) was al in Computer and Cognitive Sci- is the recipient of The nyu University): Director of the Of- awarded the 2009 Abel Prize. ence by the Franklin Institute. School of Medicine Biotechnol- ½ce of Science, Department of Allen Grossman (Johns Hopkins ogy Study Center Award in Basic Energy Stephen J. Benkovic (Pennsylva- University) was awarded the Bol- Biotechnology. nia State University) is the recip- Shirley Ann Jackson (Rensselaer lingen Prize in American Poetry. ient of the 2009 Benjamin Frank- Steve Reich (New York, NY) was Polytechnic Institute): Member lin Medal in Life Science, given awarded the 2009 Pulitzer Prize of the President’s Council of Ad- Leonard P. Guarente (Massachu- by the Franklin Institute. for Music for “Double Sextet.” visors on Science and Technology setts Institute of Technology) is the recipient of The nyu School Veena Das (Johns Hopkins Uni- Paul Richards (University of Cal- Harold Hongju Koh (Yale Law of Medicine Biotechnology Study versity) was awarded a 2009 ifornia, Berkeley) was awarded School): Legal Adviser, State De- Center Award in Applied Biotech- Guggenheim Fellowship. the Dan David Prize by the Dan partment nology. David Foundation. He shared John R. David (Harvard School Steven E. Koonin (BP, plc): Un- Donald L. Horowitz (Duke Uni- the prize with Andrew E. Lange of Public Health) is the recipient der Secretary for Science, Depart- versity) received the 2009 Dis- (California Institute of Technol- of The nyu School of Medicine ment of Energy tinguished Scholar Award of the ogy) and Paolo De Bernardis Biotechnology Faculty/Alumnus Ethnicity, Nationalism, and Mi- (University La Sapienza). Award. Richard Levin (Yale University): gration Section of the Interna- Member of the President’s Coun- Lucy Shapiro (Stanford Univer- Mildred Dresselhaus (Massachu- tional Studies Association. cil of Advisors on Science and sity) was named one of the Can- setts Institute of Technology) is Technology Gwen I½ll (weta) is the recipi- ada Gairdner International Award the recipient of the 2009 Van- ent of the Goldsmith Career winners by the Gairdner Foun- nevar Bush Award, given by the William Press (University of Tex- Award for Excellence in Journal- dation. National Science Board. as at Austin): Member of the ism, given by the Shorenstein President’s Council of Advisors Gary Snyder (University of Cali- R. Lawrence Edwards (Univer- Center at Harvard University. on Science and Technology fornia, Davis) was awarded the sity of Minnesota) was awarded uc Arthur Kleinman (Harvard Uni- Davis Medal. a 2009 Guggenheim Fellowship. Barbara Schaal (Washington Uni- versity) is the recipient of the versity in St. Louis): Member of Wayne Thiebaud (University of Leon Eisenberg, a member of the George Foster Practicing An- the President’s Council of Advi- California, Davis) was awarded Harvard Medical School faculty thropology Award from the So- uc sors on Science and Technology the Davis Medal. since 1967, was honored when ciety for Medical Anthropology. Children’s Hospital Boston an- Samuel Weber (Northwestern Eric Schmidt (Google Inc.): Mem- Neal Lane (Rice University) is nounced the establishment of University) was awarded the Or- ber of the President’s Council of the recipient of the Karl T. Comp- the Leon Eisenberg Chair & Pro- dre des Palmes Académiques by Advisors on Science and Tech- ton Medal for Leadership in Phy- fessorship in Child Psychiatry. the French government. nology sics, given by the American In- David E. Shaw (D. E. Shaw Re- David T. Ellwood (Harvard Uni- stitute of Physics. George M. Whitesides (Harvard versity) was awarded the 2009 University) was awarded the search): Member of the Presi- Andrew E. Lange (California In- Daniel Moynihan Prize by the 2009 Benjamin Franklin Medal dent’s Council of Advisors on stitute of Technology) was award- American Academy of Political in Chemistry by the Franklin Science and Technology ed the Dan David Prize by the and Social Science. Institute. Ahmed Zewail (California Insti- Dan David Foundation. He shared tute of Technology): Member of Sandra Faber (University of Cal- the prize with Paul Richards Peter Zumthor (Haldenstein, the President’s Council of Advi- ifornia, Santa Cruz) is the recipi- (University of California, Berke- Switzerland) was awarded the sors on Science and Technology ent of the 2009 Bower Award ley) and Paolo De Bernardis 2009 Pritzker Prize. and Prize for Achievement in (University La Sapienza). Science, given by the Franklin Institute.

42 Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 Academy Meetings

New Appointments Michael Hofmann (University of William Gates, Sr. (Bill & Melinda Robert C. Post (Yale Law School) Florida). Selected Poems. Farrar, Gates Foundation). Showing Up and Matthew W. Finkin (Univer- Kwame Anthony Appiah (Prince- Straus & Giroux, May 2009 for Life: Thoughts on the Gifts of a sity of Illinois at Urbana-Cham- ton University) was named Presi- Lifetime. Doubleday, April 2009 paign). For the Common Good: Susan Stewart (Princeton Univer- dent of the pen American Center. Principles of American Academic sity), trans. Love Lessons: Selected Russell Hardin (New York Uni- Freedom. Yale University Press, Thomas R. Cech (University of Poems of Alda Merini. Princeton versity), ed. Distrust. Russell Sage, April 2009 Colorado, Boulder) was named to University Press, May 2009 May 2009 Reynolds Price (Duke Universi- the Board of Directors of Merck Russell Hardin (New York Uni- & Co., Inc. ty). Ardent Spirits: Leaving Home, Fiction versity). How Do You Know? The Coming Back. Scribner, May 2009 David Ginsburg (University of Economics of Ordinary Knowledge. Michigan) was appointed to the Amos Oz (Ben-Gurion University Princeton University Press, June Michael C. J. Putnam (Brown Scienti½c Advisory Board of Cat- of the Negev, Israel). Rhyming Life 2009 University), trans. Latin Poetry: alyst Biosciences, Inc. and Death. Harcourt, April 2009 Jacopo Sannazaro. Harvard Uni- Sarah Blaffer Hrdy (Winters, Cal- versity Press, The I Tatti Renais- Philip S. Khoury (Massachusetts ifornia). Mothers and Others: The sance Library, May 2009 Institute of Technology) was Non½ction Evolutionary Origins of Mutual Un- named Chair of the Board of derstanding. Harvard University Stephen J. Pyne (Arizona State Bernard Bailyn (Harvard Uni- Press, April 2009 University). Voice and Vision: A Trustees of the American Uni- versity) and Patricia L. Denault versity of Beirut. Guide to Writing History and Other (Harvard University), eds. Sound- Philip S. Kitcher (Columbia Uni- Serious Non½ction. Harvard Uni- Cherry A. Murray (Lawrence ings in Atlantic History: Latent versity). Living with Darwin: Evo- versity Press, May 2009 Livermore National Laboratory) Structures and Intellectual Cur- lution, Design, and the Future of was selected as the Dean of the rents, 1500–1830. Harvard Uni- Faith. Oxford University Press, Simon Schama (Columbia Uni- Harvard School of Engineering versity Press, June 2009 May 2009 versity). The American Future: A History. Ecco, June 2009 and Applied Sciences, effective Rebecca M. Blank (Brookings In- Gerda Lerner (University of Wis- July 1, 2009. stitution) and Michael S. Barr consin-Madison). Living with His- Frederick Schauer (University of Venkatesh Narayanamurti (Har- (University of Michigan Law tory/Making Social Change. Uni- Virginia School of Law). Think- vard University) was named Di- School), eds. Insuf½cient Funds: versity of North Carolina Press, ing Like a Lawyer: A New Introduc- rector of the Science, Technol- Savings, Assets, Credit, and Bank- March 2009 tion to Legal Reasoning. Harvard ing among Low-Income Households. University Press, April 2009 ogy, and Public Policy Program Phillip Lopate (Hofstra Univer- at Harvard Kennedy School’s Russell Sage, April 2009 sity). Notes on Sontag. Princeton Ian Shapiro (Yale University), Belfer Center for Science and In- Archie Brown (Oxford Univer- University Press, May 2009 ed. The Federalist Papers: Alexan- ternational Affairs. sity). The Rise and Fall of Commu- der Hamilton, James Madison, and Alasdair MacIntyre (University nism. Ecco, June 2009 John Jay. Yale University Press, David Romer (University of Cal- of Notre Dame). God, Philosophy, April 2009 ifornia, Berkeley) was named co- James Carroll (Boston, Massachu- Universities: A Selective History of editor of the Brookings Papers on setts). Practicing Catholic. Hough- the Catholic Philosophical Tradition. Charles Simic (University of New Economic Activity. ton Mifflin Harcourt, April 2009 Rowman & Little½eld, June 2009 Hampshire). The Renegade: Writ- John Shattuck (John F. Kennedy Edmund S. Morgan (Yale Univer- ings on Poetry and a Few Other James Cuno (Art Institute of Things. Braziller, April 2009 Library Foundation) was elected Chicago), ed. Whose Culture? The sity). American Heroes: Pro½les of President and Rector of Central Promise of Museums and the De- Men and Women Who Shaped Early Robert Wuthnow (Princeton European University in Budapest, bate over Antiquities. Princeton America. W.W. Norton, May 2009 University). Boundless Faith: The effective August 1, 2009. University Press, April 2009 Gregory Nagy (Harvard Univer- Global Outreach of American Ray Stata (Analog Devices) was sity). Homer the Classic. Harvard Churches. University of Califor- James Cuno (Art Institute of Chi- nia Press, May 2008 named to the Board of Directors cago), Paul Goldberger (The New University Press, June 2009 of Lilliputian Systems Inc. Yorker), and Joseph Rosa (Art In- Robert Pinsky (Boston Univer- stitute of Chicago). The Modern Christopher T. Walsh (Harvard sity). Thousands of Broadways: Wing: Renzo Piano and the Art In- Medical School) was named to the Dreams and Nightmares of the stitute of Chicago. Yale University Board of Governors of the Ameri- American Small Town. University We invite all Fellows and Press, May 2009 can Academy of Microbiology. of Chicago Press, April 2009 For eign Honorary Members to send notices about their John Felstiner (Stanford Univer- Kenneth Pomeranz (University sity). Can Poetry Save the Earth? A recent and forthcoming pub - Select Publications of California, Irvine) and Edmund lications, scienti½c ½ndings, Field Guide to Nature Poems. Yale Burke III (University of Califor- University Press, April 2009 exhibitions and performances, Poetry nia, Santa Cruz), eds. The Environ- ment and World History. University and honors and prizes to Renee C. Fox (University of Penn- bulletin@ama cad.org. Rita Dove (University of Vir- sylvania) and Judith P. Swazey of California Press, April 2009 ginia). Sonata Mulattica: Poems. (The Acadia Institute). Observing W.W. Norton & Co., April 2009 Richard A. Posner (U.S. Court of Bioethics. Oxford University Press, Appeals, Seventh Circuit). A Fail- Michael S. Harper (Brown Uni- July 2008 ure of Capitalism: The Crisis of ’08 versity). Use Trouble. University and the Descent into Depression. Har- of Illinois Press, April 2009 vard University Press, May 2009

Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 43 cêçã=íÜÉ=^êÅÜáîÉë

When the Academy’s principal founder, John Adams, took of½ce as the second President of the United States in 1797, Academy members composed an address that they sent to him as a tribute to his leadership.

“An Address, presented by the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, to the President of the United States,

August 23, 1797.

Sir

The American Academy of Arts and Sciences, founded when their country was struggling for freedom and independence, which your exertions have so greatly tended to establish, ask leave to offer you their congratulations on your election to the of½ce of First Magistrate in a nation where the rights of men are respected and truly supported.

They are led to pay this tribute to your virtue, because you have for several years presided over their institution with honour to yourself, and advantage to them.

Their pursuits are literary. They wish to add to the knowledge which their country already possesses, and to use their correspondence with foreigners, engaged in the same pursuits, so as to answer this valuable purpose.

They cannot, however, be indifferent to the peace and happiness of the land Image © Bettmann/Corbis Nineteenth-century engraving of John Adams in which they live, nor to the preservation of those invaluable constitutions of government, which distinguish it from all other nations. They know that these constitutions will not answer the important purposes for which they were formed, unless they are well administered. With pleasure they ½nd their President, whom they have so long known and so highly esteemed, called by the free suffrages of his fellow-citizens, to the arduous task of guiding the counsels, preserving the honour, and supporting the prosperity of the United States, in succession to the man whose distinguished integrity and disinterested patriotism his fellow citizens have so universally attested. Their aid in accomplishing these desirable purposes cannot be greatly effective; but you may be assured that their influence will always be exerted to promote the measures of a government founded on the basis of true liberty and administered with wisdom and ½rmness. They feel high satisfaction when they ½nd these virtues marked on the measures which you have hitherto adopted; and they ardently pray that the In½nite Source of Light, and of Power may always direct you, and crown with success your efforts to promote the welfare of your country, and the happiness of mankind.”

44 Bulletin of the American Academy Spring 2009 american academy Fellows and Friends Again of arts & sciences Contribute More than $1.5 million Norton’s Woods, 136 Irving Street, Cambridge, ma 02138 to the Annual Fund telephone 617-576-5000, facsimile 617-576-5050, email [email protected], website www.amacad.org

In the recently completed ½scal year, the Academy’s Annual academy officers Fund slightly surpassed last year’s total and the $1.5 million mark for the third consecutive year–1,212 donors helped to Emilio Bizzi, President accomplish this goal. Leslie Berlowitz, Chief Executive Of½cer and William T. Golden Chair Chair of the Academy Trust and Vice President Louis W. Cabot Louis W. Cabot, Chair of the Academy Trust and Vice President noted that “in a challenging year, Annual Fund gifts are more John S. Reed, Treasurer important than ever in helping to achieve these results. Academy research projects and studies are having an important influence Jerrold Meinwald, Secretary and impact. This work and other Academy programs and activi- Steven Marcus, Editor ties across the country rely on resources provided by a success- John Katzenellenbogen, Vice President, Midwest ful Annual Fund.” Jesse H. Choper, Vice President, West The Academy is indebted to the Fellows, friends, foundations, Robert C. Post, Librarian and staff members for supporting its work. We are particularly grateful to a growing number of leadership donors. A complete list of contributors to the 2008–2009 Annual Fund will appear publications advisory board in the Academy’s Annual Report to be published in the fall. Jesse H. Choper, Denis Donoghue, Linda Greenhouse, Jerome Kagan, The members of the Development and Public Relations Com- Steven Marcus, Jerrold Meinwald, Emilio Bizzi mittee are Louis W. Cabot and Robert A. Alberty, cochairs; Jesse H. Choper, Alan M. Dachs, Michael E. Gellert, Charles editorial staff M. Haar, Stephen Stamas, and Nicholas T. Zervas. Alexandra Oleson, Editor Phyllis S. Bendell, Director of Publications Micah J. Buis, Assistant Editor Scott Eaton Wilder, Layout & Design Initial design by Joe Moore of Moore + Associates

Bulletin Spring 2009 Issued as Volume lxii, Number 3 © 2009 by the American Academy of Arts & Sciences

The Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences (issn 0002–712x) is published quarterly by the American Academy of Arts & Sciences. Periodicals rate postage paid at Boston, ma, and at additional mailing of½ces. Post master: Send address changes to Bulletin, American Acad- emy of Arts & Sciences, 136 Irving Street, Cambridge, ma 02138.

The views expressed in the Bulletin are those held by each contribu- tor and are not necessarily those of the Of½cers and Fellows of the American Acad emy of Arts & Sciences.

photo credits

Steve Rosenthal inside front cover Rod Searcey pages 1, 2, 15, 16, 18, 24 Martha Stewart pages 5, 7, 9, 31, 32, 35, 37, 39 Alan Decker pages 25, 26