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Portugal Marketbeat Retail Q4 2020

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Portugal Marketbeat Retail Q4 2020 M A R K E T B E AT PORTUGAL Retail Q4 2020 YoY 12-Mo. ECONOMY: Second General Lockdown Will Affect Economic Growth Chg Forecast In the context of the COVID-19 outbreak, the Portuguese economy contracted by 7.6% in 2020, with a fall of 20.6% in exports, a €955 drop of 7.8% in investment and of 5.1% in private consumption, according to Moody’s Analytics. Average Monthly Income The current deterioration of the sanitary situation, with a second general lockdown declared and a protracted vaccination campaign, is expected to condition economic growth at least during the first semester of 2021. Consequently, Moody’s Analytics foresees a 10,241K 5.6% GDP growth in 2021, impacted by an increase in investment of 3.8%. Nevertheless, inflation will remain at low levels, helping Population creditors’ ability to pay and stimulating corporate investment. Sales in shopping centres contracted by 20.9% in last October, according to the latest data by APCC, but should have improved 7.4% closer to the end of the year. Overall, retail sales registered a drop of 2.9% year-on-year until November 2020, according to INE. Unemployment Rate SUPPLY: Two Schemes Added 13,000 sq.m to the Existing Supply Source: Oxford Economics; INE In the last quarter of 2020, 2 schemes added 13,000 sq.m to the existing supply. The major completion relates to Norteshopping expansion of 7,000 sq.m (including the opening of the luxury retail area Galleria), followed by the Caldas da Rainha Retail Park opening with 6,000 sq.m. ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2020 Regarding take-up, a total of 430 deals with almost 135,600 sq.m were registered in Portugal by Cushman & Wakefield proprietary database in 2020, representing a year-on-year decrease of 50%. High street retail aggregated the highest share of new openings YoY 12-Mo. (65%), followed by shopping centres (21%) and stand alone units (8%). Chg Forecast Food & Beverage (F&B), though being one of the most affected segments, represented half of the take-up sample (56%). The food -7.6% sector, which on the other hand is registering an increasing demand, followed with 11% of new openings. GDP Growth PRICING: Visible Downward Pressure in Rents -5.1% A downward pressure in rents became visible by the end of the year given the expected reduction in demand, with prime rents Consumer Spending slightly decreasing across all formats except for retail parks. Growth PRIME RENTS DEMAND EVOLUTION € 140 300,000 275,000 € 125.0 260,000 € 120 -2.9% € 115.0 250,000 Retail Sales Growth 220,000 € 100 € 102.5 220,000 € 92.5 € 80 ) 200,000 /month sq.m sq.m € 60 136,000 €/ 150,000 up ( 128,000 - € 40 Take 100,000 € 20 € 11.0 € 0 50,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 0 Shopping Centre Retail Park High Street Chiado 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Moody’s Analytics; INE High Street Baixa High Street Liberdade M A R K E T B E AT PORTUGAL Retail Q4 2020 MARKET STATISTICS SHOPPING CENTRE SHOPING CENTRE PRIME RENT PRIME YIELD SUBMARKET STOCK (SQ.M) PIPELINE (SQ.M) (€/SQ.M./MONTH) (%) North 432,400 - - - Greater Porto 672,230 - €77.5 5.50% Centre 517,260 13,700 - - Lisbon Metropolitan Area 902,730 10,500 €102.5 5.25% Setúbal Peninsula 269,090 - - - South 277,280 - - - Islands 92,510 - - - PORTUGAL TOTALS 3,163,500 24,200 €102.5 5. 25% MAIN OCCUPANCY TRANSACTIONS Q4 2020 RETAIL FORMAT LOCATION TENANT AREA (SQ.M) RETAILER TYPE Retail Park Caldas da Rainha JOM 3,000 Multiple Stand Alone Barcelos JOM 3,000 Multiple Retail Park Matosinhos Espaço Casa 2,000 Multiple ANDREIA ALMEIDA Stand Alone Paços de Ferreira Mercadona 1,900 Cross Border Head of Research Stand Alone Viana do Castelo Mercadona 1,900 Cross Border +351 211 207 560 / [email protected] cushmanwakefield.com COMPLETIONS Q4 2020 PROPERTY LOCATION MAJOR TENANT AREA (SQ.M) OWNER / DEVELOPER Norteshopping (expansion) Matosinhos Hugo Boss 7,000 Sonae Sierra A CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH PUBLICATION Caldas da Rainha Retail Park Caldas da Rainha JOM 6,000 JOM Investimentos Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) is a leading global real estate services firm that delivers exceptional value for real estate occupiers and owners. Cushman & Wakefield is among the largest real estate services firms with approximately 51,000 employees in 400 offices and 70 countries. In 2018, the firm had revenue of $8.2 billion across core services of property, facilities and project management, leasing, capital markets, valuation and other services. ©2019 Cushman & Wakefield. All rights reserved. The information contained within this report is gathered from multiple sources believed to be reliable. The information may contain errors or omissions and is presented without any warranty or representations as to its accuracy..
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