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The Economy at Light Speed: Technology and Growth in the Information Age—And Beyond

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The Economy at Light Speed: Technology and Growth in the Information Age—And Beyond Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 1996 Annual Report TheThe EconomyEconomy atat LightLight SpeedSpeed Technology and Growth in the Information Age—And Beyond | T ABLE OF CONTENTS A Letter from the President . .1 The Economy at Light Speed: Technology and Growth in the Information Age—And Beyond . .2 The Year in Review . .18 Corporate Executives and Senior Management . .21 Boards of Directors . .22 Advisory Councils and Officers . .24 Selected Financial Information • Statement of Condition . .25 • Statement of Income . .26 • Statement of Changes in Capital . .27 Volume of Operations . .28 A LETTER FROM THE |1 PRESIDENT The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas today. Our rationale for exploring the has projected optimism in our recent possibilities here is to counter the pes- annual report essays—optimism that simism generated by current growth and the creative destruction of jobs renews productivity statistics, which seem and reinvigorates our economy (“The increasingly inadequate for our third- Churn: The Paradox of Progress,” 1992); wave service and information economy. optimism that our living standards are ❧ continuing to rise, as shown by the way 1996 was a good year for the Federal we live our lives (“These Are the Good Reserve Bank of Dallas. Our banking for me the prototypical gentleman Old Days,” 1993); optimism that our system remained sound, our regional Texas farmer. Peyton Yates left the evolution toward a service economy is economy continued to outpace the Dallas Board in April 1996 and was not a bad thing (“The Service Sector: national average, and we fully recov- replaced by Bob McNair, who had been Give It Some Respect,” 1994); and opti- ered the cost of the services we pro- serving on our Houston Board. We will mism that our dynamic economy still vided to our customers. Productivity miss J. B. and Peyton. We will also miss offers plenty of opportunity for individ- improved as we continued to provide Erich Wendl, who retired from our San uals to move up (“By Our Own Boot- more services with fewer employees. Antonio Board; Walter Johnson, who straps,” 1995). In short, we have chosen Our public programs and educational retired from our Houston Board; and to see the glass half full rather than half activities were well received by larger Veronica Callaghan and Ben Haines, empty. We have confidence in the audiences. We expect more of the who retired from our El Paso Board. All power of our free enterprise economy to same in 1997. have made valuable contributions. produce rising living standards. ❧ Internally, the most significant This year, we may be going too far, At the end of 1996, Cece Smith com- management changes in 1996 were the projecting our optimism well into the pleted three years as chairman of the retirement of Tony Salvaggio on April future. As a former economist, I’ve Board of Directors of the Federal 1 after almost 40 years of distinguished learned that forecasting is not too haz- Reserve Bank of Dallas and turned the service, and the appointment of ardous, as long as it isn’t about the chairmanship over to Roger Hemming- Helen Holcomb as our new first vice future. I’ve also learned that optimists haus, who had been serving as deputy president. have a better track record than pes- chairman. During 1997, Cece will Innovation and change are inherent simists. Besides, by 2020, I’ll be retired serve the last of her six years on the components of our free enterprise and so, probably, will the authors of Board as deputy chairman. I appreci- economy and, I believe, of our great this and the other essays cited above, ate the valuable contribution Cece has strength. Therefore, our optimism Mike Cox and Richard Alm. made as chairman. She’s a great boss. continues both for our world and for Their hook in this essay, and the 1996 also saw the retirement of our economy. reason you may want to take it more Dallas Fed Director J. B. Cooper, after seriously than a science fiction comic six years of service on the Board and book, is that their high-tech world of after previously serving on our Advi- 2020 is based on applications and sory Council on Small Business and Robert D. McTeer, Jr. refinements of technology that exists Agriculture. J. B. will always remain President and Chief Executive Officer 2 The Economyat Light Speed Technology and Growth in the Information Age —And Beyond Fast-forward to life in the year 2020. Though it’s an overcast winter morning, Steve and Kim Jones wake to a sunrise of sea gulls and warm salt-air breezes, all synthesized by their Sensual, Audio and Visual Virtual Information and Entertainment system. ANK B by W. MICHAEL COX MAGE I and RICHARD ALM Imagination is more important than knowledge. —Albert Einstein THE ECONOMY AT LIGHT SPEED | 3 A fixture in most middle-class homes, alized to reflect their interests. After a SAVVIE regulates the indoor environ- report on China’s efforts to clean up ment and operates 50-odd computer- the environment, Kim wants an update controlled appliances, among them the on the Chinese and American Mars Joneses’ bed. All night it reads body colony. Steve requests an interview shapes, weight, temperature and posi- with Cowboys head coach Troy Aikman, tions, adjusting to ensure the couple’s preparing for Super Bowl LIV. Business complete comfort. The bed gathers data news starts with the latest on around- on each snoozer’s heart rate, oxygen the-clock stock trading, showing the intake, bone density, neurological activi- Dow Jones industrial average surging With gears the width of a human hair, this ties and other vital signs, all of it logged past 31,000.1 micromachine component includes a linear into a memory bank that compiles a Tiny robots scrub the dishes and run rack, rack guides, a drive gear and drive daily health report. a whisper-quiet vacuum cleaner as linkage to convert rotational motion into After showering and dressing, Steve Steve remarks to Kim, “TGIT”—Thank linear motion. Photo copyright Sandia says, “Breakfast, Max.” He’s speaking to God it’s Thursday. Like most Americans National Laboratories. the family’s intelligent agent, Maxwell, a in 2020, Steve works from 9 a.m. to 4 book-sized computer that commands p.m., Mondays through Thursdays. ularly engineered composites that are the SAVVIE appliances, maintains the Steve has Max make reservations at the stronger than steel, lighter than plastic home’s environment and handles the local sports cybercade, a virtual reality and cheaper than either. Most days, family’s shopping via the Internet. Max club that simulates hang-gliding, skiing Steve works from home or his vacation comes with its own personality. On and other outdoor adventures. Having cabin, when necessary using his telecon- hearing its name, Max activates the fallen three times, Steve is resolved ferencing port to hold virtual meetings. floor-to-ceiling video wall in any room to complete his conquest of Mount Sensors follow Steve’s eyes, changing and answers in the charming Scottish McKinley. After reviewing Steve’s daily the image on the video wall to match his accent chosen by the Joneses, “Good health report, Max says, “Along with slightest shift in focus. With a word to morning, sir. What would you be having your usual vitamins, I’m recommending Max, Steve can consult with colleagues for breakfast today?” a wee extra bit of molybdenum to build in Thailand and Argentina while working Steve orders bacon and eggs without stamina for tomorrow’s climb.” with a customer in Egypt. Language a twinge of guilt. In 2020, most foods Steve works for International Micro- processors translate Steve’s English into have been genetically engineered to tools Inc., a consortium that makes Thai, Spanish and Arabic. maintain taste and texture but provide machines small enough to maneuver After kissing Steve good-bye, Kim, a optimal nutrition with less fat and choles- inside the human heart. He designs them doctor, leaves for work in her nonpol- terol. As Steve and Kim eat, they ask on a three-dimensional computer screen, luting vehicle powered by superconduc- Max for the morning newscast, person- tailoring each tool to the customer’s tive batteries that require recharging just exact specifications. With a single key- once a month. There’s no need for a 1 This number is not pulled from thin air. The stroke, he sends his designs to facto- key: the car identifies her by voice and Dow ended 1996 at 6,448, and matching the ries, where durable-product generators smell. Kim speaks only a simple com- long-term growth of 7 percent a year would put the index above 31,000 in 2020. fabricate the tiny machines from molec- mand, “Max, the office, please,” and 4 | THE ECONOMY AT LIGHT SPEED Nanotechnology researchers are growing carbon nanotubes from which they someday hope to build ultrathin metallic electrical conductors. By polymerizing carbon into a con- tinuous, perfect graphene tube with metal atoms sealed inside, researchers make nanowires that have the potential to be as conductive as copper and 100 times stronger than steel. Photo copyright Rice University Center for Nanoscale Science and Technology. the car responds. Steering, acceleration and virtual reality provide indelible learn- and braking are self-controlled, with ing experiences— the sights, sounds continuous feedback from the Coordi- and feel of rocketing through Saturn’s nated Travel Network linked to naviga- rings, a touch-of-a-button tour of the tional satellites that pinpoint a car’s posi- Louvre. After school, Jane designs a tion anywhere on the planet. Computers new outfit, using 3-D scanners to per- and sensors in cars and roadbeds pre- fect the fit and laser-guided machines to vent collisions.
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