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THE SWEDISH EXHIBITION & CONGRESS CENTRE | GOTHENBURG, SWEDEN THE SWEDISH EXHIBITION & CONGRESS CENTRE | GOTHENBURG, SWEDEN FUTUREFUTURE WINTERWINTER SIMULATIONSIMULATION THE SWEDISH EXHIBITION & CONGRESS CENTRE | GOTHENBURG, SWEDEN CONFERENCESCONFERENCES DecemberDecember 8–11,8–11, 20192019 GaylordGaylord NationalNational ResortResort && ConventionConvention CenterCenter NationalNational Harbor,Harbor, MarylandMaryland Chair:Chair: Young-JunYoung-Jun SonSon DecemberDecember 13–16,13–16, 20202020 OrlandoOrlando WorldWorld CenterCenter MarriottMarriott Orlando,Orlando, FloridaFlorida Chair:Chair: RenéeRenée ThiesingThiesing DecemberDecember 12–15,12–15, 20212021 JWJW MarriottMarriott DesertDesert RidgeRidge Phoenix,Phoenix, ArizonaArizona Chair:Chair: MargaretMargaret LoperLoper DecemberDecember 11–14,11–14, 20222022 (Tentative)(Tentative) Singapore,Singapore, AsiaAsia MarinaMarina BayBay SandsSands Chair:Chair: PeterPeter LendermannLendermann SPONSORINGSPONSORING SOCIETIESSOCIETIES FORFOR WSCWSC 20182018 AmericanAmerican StatisticalStatistical AssociationAssociation (ASA)(ASA) TechnicalTechnical Co-SponsorCo-Sponsor ArbeitsgemeinschaftArbeitsgemeinschaft SimulationSimulation (ASIM)(ASIM) TechnicalTechnical Co-SponsorCo-Sponsor AssociationAssociation forfor ComputingComputing Machinery:Machinery: SpecialSpecial InterestInterest GroupGroup onon SimulationSimulation (ACM/SIGSIM)(ACM/SIGSIM) InstituteInstitute ofof ElectricalElectrical andand ElectronicsElectronics Engineers:Engineers: Systems,Systems, Man,Man, andand CyberneticsCybernetics SocietySociety (IEEE/SMC)(IEEE/SMC) TechnicalTechnical Co-SponsorCo-Sponsor SIMULATIONSIMULATION FORFOR InstituteInstitute forfor OperationsOperations ResearchResearch andand thethe AA NOBLENOBLE CAUSECAUSE ManagementManagement SciencesSciences SimulationSimulation SocietySociety (INFORMS-SIM)(INFORMS-SIM) ProgramProgram && ExhibitExhibit DirectoryDirectory InstituteInstitute ofof IndustrialIndustrial andand SystemsSystems EngineersEngineers (IISE)(IISE) NationalNational InstituteInstitute ofof StandardsStandards andand TechnologyTechnology (NIST)(NIST) TechnicalTechnical Co-SponsorCo-Sponsor DECEMBER 9–12, 2018 DECEMBER 9–12, 2018 DECEMBER 9–12, 2018 TheThe OperationalOperational ResearchResearch SocietySociety (UK)(UK) TechnicalTechnical Co-SponsorCo-Sponsor TheThe SocietySociety forfor ModelingModeling andand SimulationSimulation InternationalInternational (SCS)(SCS) CONFERENCE COMMITTEE EXHIBIT HALL MAP - HALL H GENERAL CHAIR Björn Johansson Chalmers University of Technology PROGRAM CHAIR Sanjay Jain George Washington University BUSINESS CHAIR Oliver Rose Universität der Bundeswehr München PROCEEDINGS EDITORS Markus Rabe Technical University of Dortmund Angel A. Juan Open University of Catalonia Navonil Mustafee University of Exeter EXHIBITING COMPANIES Booth # Anders Skoogh Chalmers University of Technology ÅF 9 The AnyLogic Company 15 & 16 SPONSORSHIP CHAIRS Applied Materials 11 Renée Thiesing Karthik Vasudevan Chalmers University of Technology 23 Simio Amazon Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute (ETRI) 10 EXHIBIT CHAIRS Evoma 31 Joe Hugan Camilla Lundgren ExtendSim 14 Forward Vision, LLC Chalmers University of Technology FlexSim Software Products, Inc. 17, 20, & 27 Franhofer-Chalmers Centre 24 REGISTRATION CHAIR INCONTROL Simulation Software 19 Jonatan Berglund Chalmers University of Technology INFORMS Reg. Desk MathWorks 30 PUBLICITY CHAIRS MOSIMTEC LLC 13 Simon Taylor NIRAS 12 Brunel University London Rockwell Automation (Arena(R) Simulation Software) 7 Alejandro Jose Caceres Berbetty SAGE Publishing 18 Honduras SAS 8 Jesus Jiminez Siemens 25 Texas State University Simio LLC 26 Loo Hay Lee Simplan AG 3 National University of Singapore SIMUL8 32 Society for Modeling & Simulation International (SCS) 4 WSC MOBILE APP LIAISON Systems Navigator 33 & 34 Michael E. Kuhl Rochester Institute of Technology Talumis 5 Virtual Manufacturing 21 WSC BOARD LIAISON Visual Components 2 Adelinde Uhrmacher VMS Global 6 University of Rostock Xcelgo 29 8 2018 Winter Simulation Conference Simulation for a Noble Cause Final Program Exhibit Directory December 9-12, 2018 The Swedish Exhibition & Congress Centre Gothenburg, Sweden Table of Contents WSC ’18 Committee ............................................ Inside front cover Program Highlights ......................................................................... 2 Program & Events Schedule ........................................................... 3 Special Events .................................................................................. 5 Sponsors ........................................................................................... 6 Preface .............................................................................................. 8 In Memoriam: Julian Reitman ..................................................... 12 Conference Keynote ...................................................................... 14 Titans of Simulation ...................................................................... 15 Military Keynote ........................................................................... 17 MASM Conference Keynote ........................................................ 18 Vendor Workshops and Tutorials .................................................. 19 Final Program Abstracts ................................................................ 27 Sunday: PhD Student Colloquium, Poster Session .............. 27 Monday Abstracts, Poster Session ........................................ 40 Tuesday Abstracts .................................................................. 81 Wednesday Abstracts ........................................................... 130 Exhibitor Directory ...................................................................... 148 Exhibit Hall Floor Plan ............................................................... 155 WSC ’18 Track Coordinators ..................................................... 156 WSC ’18 Referees ....................................................................... 159 WSC Board of Directors ............................................................. 168 WSC ’19 Announcement ............................................................ 169 WSC Foundation ......................................................................... 171 WSC Proceedings Instructions ................................................... 173 Future WSC Conferences & Sponsoring Societies .......Back cover 2 8 Program Highlights Welcome to WSC 2018 Björn Johansson, WSC 2018 General Chair Monday, December 10, 8:00am-8:30am, Congress Hall WSC Keynote Scott F. Breor, US Department of Homeland Security Assessing Critical Infrastructure Dependencies and Interdependencies Titans of Simulation Peter I. Frazier, Cornell University Bridging the Gap from Academic Research to Industry Impact Monday, December 10, 12:20pm-1:20pm, Congress Hall Russell Cheng, University of Southampton Creating a Real Impression: Visual Statistics Analysis Tuesday, December 11, 12:20pm-1:20pm, Congress Hall MASM Keynote Lars Mönch, University of Hagen, Germany Reflections on Reference Modeling, Simulation Testbeds, and Reproducibility Tuesday, December 11, 3:30-5:00pm, R14 Military Keynote Reiner Huber, University of the German Armed Forces Military Modeling and Simulation—A Recollection and Perspective Monday, December 10, 10:00-11:30am, R17 Poster Flash Presentations, PhD Colloquium & General Poster Session Sunday, December 9 PhD Colloquium Presentations, 1:00pm-5:30pm, J2 Poster Flash Presentations, 3:30pm-5:20pm, K1 PhD Colloquium & General Poster Session, 5:30pm-7:00pm* Sunday and 5:30pm-6:30pm, Monday, Congress Foyer *Posters will remain in the Congress Foyer through Wednesday Vendor Workshops - Sunday Free, in-depth workshops from leading simulation vendors. See page 5 for details. Vendor Tutorial Sessions – Monday & Tuesday Exhibiting companies will present software tutorials, case studies, customer testimonials and introductory training sessions in these tracks, part of the regular technical program. World Café – Monday thru Wednesday First time at WSC. Participants will discuss topics of high interest at differ- ent tables over lunch. Ideas, questions, and concerns will be captured on first two days and reported out in a session on Wednesday. General Information 3 Program & Events Schedule See Quick Reference Guide (separate handout) for room locations. Sunday, December 9 8:00am-6:00pm Registration Congress Foyer Reception 8:30am-12:00pm Data Farming 101 Workshop R2 10:00am-12:00pm Vendor Workshops Flexsim R17 MathWorks R14 12:00pm-1:00pm PhD Colloquium Lunch (invite only) J2 Foyer PhD Colloquium 1:00pm-2:00pm Plenary J2 2:15pm-3:45pm Session 1 J2 4:00pm-5:30pm Session 2 J2 5:30pm-7:00pm PhD Colloquium Poster Session Congress Foyer 12:30pm-2:30pm Vendor Workshops Applied Materials R14 Rockwell Automation R17 Systems Navigator R18 1:00pm-7:00pm Simulation 101 Workshop R2 3:00pm-5:00pm Vendor Workshops ÅF R22+R23 The AnyLogic Company R18 Evoma R24+R25 Simio R14 Xcelgo R17 3:30pm-5:20pm Poster Flash Presentations K1 5:30pm-7:00pm Poster Session Congress Foyer 6:00pm-7:30pm I-SIM Council Meeting R14 6:00pm-7:30pm TOMACS Editorial Board R17 7:00pm-8:30pm Welcome Reception Congress Foyer Hosted by City of Gothenburg 8:30pm-9:00pm New Attendee Orientation J2 Monday, December 10 7:00am-5:00pm Registration Congress Foyer Reception 8:00am-9:30am Welcome & Keynote Congress Hall 9:30am-5:30pm Exhibits Open Hall H 9:30am-10:00am