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2016 EIU Global Food Security Index A report from The Economist Intelligence Unit Global food security index 2016 An annual measure of the state of global food security Sponsored by Global food security index 2016 An annual measure of the state of global food security Contents Preface 2 Acknowledgements 3 Executive summary 4 Key findings 6 2016 GFSI overall rankings table 9 Score changes 10 Affordability 11 Availability 15 Quality & Safety 19 Regional comparison 22 Five year trends and outlook 26 Conclusion 29 Appendix: Methodology 30 1 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016 Global food security index 2016 An annual measure of the state of global food security Preface The Global Food Security Index 2016: An annual Public Policy, and Hilary Steiner, North measure of the state of global food security is American director of Public Policy, served as the fifth edition of an Economist Intelligence senior advisers. William Shallcross designed Unit (EIU) study, commissioned by DuPont. and constructed the benchmarking model, This report discusses the key findings from the Peter Ouvry provided editorial support and research and the benchmarking index. Mike Kenny was responsible for layout and Katherine Stewart, research analyst, was the design. We would like to extend thanks to the project manager. Robert Smith, research many researchers who lent their expertise to analyst, provided research and analytical this project. A full list of acknowledgements support. Leo Abruzzese, Global Director of follows. Note: The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this study are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsor. The sponsor does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colours, denominations and other information shown on any map in this work or related materials do not imply any judgment on the part of the sponsor concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 2 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016 Global food security index 2016 An annual measure of the state of global food security Acknowledgements The following economists, researchers, food provided ongoing support, as needed, specialists and country analysts contributed to throughout all five editions of the index, as well the report. We thank them for their as advising on the selection of weightings. participation. Ademola Braimoh (World Bank); Margaret Enis Economist Intelligence Unit specialists and (US Agency for International Development); contributors Craig Gundersen (National Soybean Research Mohamed Abdelmeguid, Diane Alarcon, Laboratory, University of Illinois at Urbana- Benedict Craven, Tom Felix Joehnk, Champaign); Eileen Kennedy (Friedman School Brendan Koch, Joseph Lake and Robert Powell. of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University); Samarendu Mohanty (International Rice Peer panel members Research Institute); Prabhu Pingali (Gates The following experts on food security and Foundation); Pedro Sanchez (Earth Institute, agricultural policy contributed significantly to Columbia University); David Spielman shaping the index methodology and vetting the (International Food Policy Research Institute); indicators. Their diverse backgrounds and Robert Thompson (Chicago Council on Global extensive experience ensured that a wide variety Affairs); Patrick Westhoff (Food and Agricultural of views were considered. The panel met as a Policy Research Institute, University of group in February 2012 in Washington, DC to Missouri—Columbia) review an initial indicator list. The panel has also 3 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016 Global food security index 2016 An annual measure of the state of global food security Executive summary Global food security continues to improve. the GFSI as a research tool to identify key Hunger has decreased: the UN Food and countries in which to focus advocacy efforts for Agriculture Organisation (FAO) estimates that food-security policy changes and developments. the number of undernourished people has fallen The private sector uses the tool as a launch pad by 176m over the past ten years.1 But almost to make strategic decisions, explore food 800m people—just over one in nine people—still consumption trends and develop corporate remain hungry, and food security continues to be social responsibility initiatives. one of the major global challenges for the future. Over the past five years, the GFSI has shown The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Global Food improvements in food security. Overall global Security Index (GFSI) provides a common economic growth has led to improvements in the framework for understanding the root causes of structural areas that are essential to improving food insecurity by looking at the dynamics of people’s access to a wide range of affordable, food systems around the world. It seeks to nutritious foods, including more extensive food answer the central question: How food-secure is safety-net programmes, expanded food a country? Food security is a complex, multi- transport infrastructure and greater dietary faceted issue influenced by culture, environment diversity. This is particularly evident in middle- and geographic location. The index cannot income and emerging-market countries, which capture intra-country nuances, but by distilling have reached the economic and development major food-security themes down to their core threshold necessary to enable them to focus on elements it provides a useful approach to improving government programmes to enhance understanding the risks to food security in food security, expand avenues of financing for countries, regions and around the world. farmers and promote infrastructure By creating a common framework against development, and where a burgeoning middle which to benchmark a country’s food security, class is increasingly demanding access to a more the GFSI has created a unique country-level diverse range of foods. food-security measurement tool that addresses Low-income countries have not yet reached the issues of affordability, availability and this threshold. They often lack basic utilisation in 113 countries around the world. infrastructure, and smaller incomes inhibit Since its inception, the GFSI has become a policy access to and affordability of nutritious food. check for governments and a country diagnostic Political risk and corruption frequently tool for investment. Non-governmental compound structural difficulties in these organisations and multilaterals have turned to countries. These issues are exacerbated by the risk of future climate change. The developing 1 FAO. (2015). “State of Food Insecurity in the World: In Brief”. Available at http://www.fao.org/3/a-i4671e.pdf nations at the bottom of the GFSI are the 4 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016 Global food security index 2016 An annual measure of the state of global food security countries that are most affected by weather- related loss events. Changing weather patterns, drought, increased rainfall and flooding will have a significant impact in the long term, potentially pushing up food prices and increasing production volatility. The World Bank estimates that, without any action on climate change, extreme weather events could lead to crop yield losses as high as 5% by 2030, which would drive up food prices. In the light of current and future food- security challenges in low-income countries— risks from climate change, population growth and potential spikes in food prices, among others—the GFSI highlights the fact that focusing on advancements in these countries must be a priority. How can low-income, developing countries move ahead despite the obstacles they face? Investment in infrastructure and food systems is the key to pushing these countries forward and narrowing the gap between the low-income and middle-income countries and their food-security systems. Governments will need to invest in the development and implementation of new technologies to make countries more resilient to changing weather patterns. Private investment must also be encouraged. 5 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016 Global food security index 2016 An annual measure of the state of global food security Key findings Food security has improved around the globe security. But weather and climate change- over the past five years, but hunger and food related risks, as well as market-distorting insecurity still persist. Governments, government food policies, pose risks to food multilaterals and the private sector should prices and food availability in the future. remain proactive in addressing food-security challenges around the world. Over three- For the first time since the launch of the GFSI quarters (89) of the 113 countries in the 2016 in 2012, Europe has experienced an GFSI have experienced food-security improvement in its food security. Geopolitical improvements over the past five years. These factors, average annual GDP growth of 1.4% positive developments have largely been driven across the region in the past year and favourable by rising incomes in most countries and general crop yields have supported Europe’s improvements in the global economy. Falling improvements. Falling oil prices have increased food prices have also positively impacted food food affordability (via lower costs for food Changes in Affordability rankings in Europe, 2016 Score improvement from 2015 to 2016 Score deterioration from 2015 to 2016 22 Size of the bubble is directly related to 14 10 Russia the magnitude of the
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