DAMMAM METROPOLITAN AREA May 2016 MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW Saudi’s GDP has remained relatively stable over the past announced in April 2016 by the Deputy Crown Prince, Mohammed 2 years (averaging around 3.5%). The picture for 2016 bin Salman, it aims to liberate the Kingdom from its reliance on oil looks less optimistic with the announced budget equating to through the aggressive expansion of the State’s Public Investment SAR 840 billion (USD 224 billion); a 14% drop from the 2015 Fund (PIF) which will be expanded to eventually manage more than budget of SAR 975 billion (USD 260 billion). As a result, Oxford USD 2 trillion. A major step in achieving this economic diversification Economics (OE) have reduced their GDP forecast for 2016 from is the planned IPO of a limited number of shares (less than 5%) in 1.5% to just 0.8% (the lowest since 2002). Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (Aramco), which could happen as soon as 2017 / 2018. These funds would then be transferred to the PIF, to The major reason for the economic slowdown is the recent decline diversify into non-petroleum assets. in oil prices. While oil prices have increased from their lows of early 2016 in recent weeks, they are forecast to remain well below levels The Vision represents a positive long term outlook for the Saudi seen in recent years. With no agreement on a proposed freeze on economy, which in turn should ultimately boost the real estate oil production being reached by OPEC members, Saudi production sector. The short term prospects for the real estate sector are is expected to exceed 10.2 million barrels per day in 2016. however more subdued. Although positive for the Kingdom’s economy, diversifying from oil is also likely to mean that the DMA The recent fall in oil prices has prompted the government to redouble (which is dominated by the oil industry), will eventually hold a its efforts to diversify the economy by boosting non-oil revenue. The less prominent economic position in the Kingdom, which in turn most recent evidence of this is the Saudi Vision 2030. This Vision was may impact the short term growth of the real estate sector. REAL GDP GROWTH (% CHANGE) 12 9.96 10 8% 6 5.38 Change 3.64 4% 3.35 2.67 2 0.80 0 2011 2012 201 201 201 2016 Source: Oxford Economics OIL PRICE (BRENT SPOT PRICE FOB) 160 10 120 100 0 60 USD Barrel 0 20 0 May May May May May May May May May May A 2006 200 200 200 2010 2011 2012 201 201 201 2016 Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA) COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2016 DAMMAM METROPOLITAN AREA (DMA) The Dammam Metropolitan Area (DMA) lies on the East Coast The Dammam Metropolitan Area (DMA) is the commercial centre of Saudi and comprises a major gateway to the other Gulf of the Eastern Province (that has historically been considered Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The DMA comprises as the economic powerhouse of Saudi), accounting for around of Dammam, Dhahran and Al Khobar. Although these were 50% of the Kingdom’s total oil and gas reserves. The economic originally three quite separate cities, they have expanded over diversification of the national economy will inevitably reduce the the years and merged to what is now commonly referred to as DMA’s traditional dependence on the hydrocarbon sector over the DMA. Collectively, the DMA had a total population of just over time and will increase the importance of its other distinctive 1.7 million people in 2015, according to the Central Department characteristic, its close connectivity to the surrounding of Statistics and Information (CDSI), with expatriates making up GCC nations. approximately 44% of the total population. COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2016 The King Fahd Causeway which connects the DMA to the Plans to alleviate the severe congestion by expanding the Kingdom of Bahrain, is the most apparent example of the current causeway have been shelved due to cost and replaced DMA’s connectivity to the neighboring Gulf nations. Although with plans to construct a USD 3 billion second causeway; the the Causeway has opened opportunities to the DMA, it also proposed King Hamad Causeway would include a railway line created competition for the DMA real estate sector. According connecting to the planned GCC Rail Network. to the Tourism Department in Bahrain, 52% of its eight million tourists in 2012 came from Saudi, 72% of whom entered via The Dammam Metro connecting Dammam to Qatif via two the Causeway. The latest figures released by the King Fahd metro lines totaling 86 km was announced in 2014 at a cost Causeway Authority show that the number of travelers using the of SAR 60 billion (USD 16 billion) with a completion date of causeway has increased which has caused severe congestion 2021. Since the announcement, there has been little progress at peak periods. The total number of travelers crossing the and the project currently remains at the planning stage. Given causeway in 2013 reached over 19.7 million (a 12% increase the current environment of government spending cuts, it is from 2012). expected that further delays will be experienced in the delivery of the Dammam Metro. COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2016 DAMMAM METROPOLITAN AREA The DMA is the fourth largest city in Saudi, (with a combined population of over 1.7 million), the commercial centre of the Eastern Province and the gateway to surrounding GCC States. COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2016 PROPERTY MARKET HIGHLIGHTS Having experienced a growth in demand and performance over While the office market is expected to remain subdued the past few years, most sectors of the DMA real estate market are over the short term, Grade A office buildings continue to now positioned close to the peak of their cycle. 2016 is expected to outperform lower grade office space, with demand from both see conditions remain relatively stable in most sectors, although new entrants and companies upgrading from older and poorer performance may decline in some sectors of the market. quality space. With a number of regional shopping centers in the pipeline, competition in the retail sector is expected to While a number of major new projects entered the DMA market over increase, particularly for Al Rashid Mall and Mall of Dhahran the last two years, the materialization of future projects is expected which currently dominate the market. Competition in the hotel to slow, with delays continuing to be experienced, particularly in the sector is also expected to increase, with a large number of keys office and hotel sectors. Stand-alone villas and apartment buildings expected to enter the market over the next two years and many are expected to continue to dominate future residential supply, with a guests continuing to prefer furnished / serviced apartments. marked improvement in the quality of services and amenities provided in upcoming projects. Demand for residential compounds is expected to remain strong, despite the economic slowdown and the current undersupply provides opportunities for further compound projects. DMA PRIME RENTAL CLOCK RENTAL GROWTH RENTS SLOWING FALLING Q1 2016 RENTAL RENTS GROWTH BOTTOMING ACCELERATING OUT OFFICE RESIDENTIAL RETAIL HOTEL* * Hotel clock reflects the movement of RevPAR Note: The property clock is a graphical tool developed by JLL to illustrate where a market sits within its individual rental cycle. These positions are not necessarily representative of investment or development market prospects. It is important to recognise that markets move at different speeds depending on their maturity, size and economic conditions. Markets will not always move in a clockwise direction, they might move backwards or remain at the same point in their cycle for extended periods. Source: JLL COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2016 RESIDENTIAL MARKET OVERVIEW JLL currently estimates the residential stock A further 26,000 units are expected to enter Occupancies for high quality apartments to be 331,000 residential units in the DMA, the market in the DMA over the next three and villa projects often reach 95%, due to formed mostly of dated standalone villas and years. While small to mid-scale developers are the shortage of quality residential products. low rise apartment buildings. The majority of expected to deliver the majority of upcoming Proximity to the major arterial roads and future supply comprises standalone villas and supply, there are a number of larger master centres of employment (demand generators) individual apartment buildings. However, master planned developments ranging between are the main drivers of rent and occupancy. planned residential projects are increasing in 100–300 units being developed by major number. As central areas in Dammam become developers such as Al Argan, Emaar and Al Khobar is the preferred residential saturated, there is a noticeable expansion of Injaz. These projects often face delays in the destination within the DMA due to better residential development to the West. approval processes increasing the development infrastructure, planning and its proximity to timeframe, and we expect the low materialization Bahrain, which has added upward pressure rate experienced over recent years to continue. on rentals and selling prices. HOT TOPIC Due to the high price of land close to the city center, Although villas remain the preferred facilities to villas while being more affordable. much of the residential expansion is currently residence type in the DMA, quality apartment A number of such apartment developments towards the west where there is greater availability developments, typically ranging between are currently under construction to meet of more affordable land. However, the introduction 80–120 units, which offer facilities including the growing demand, including Marbella of the White Land Tax might change this pattern if leisure, health and fitness, green spaces, apartments (2016), Retal Square (2017) and more land is released into the market for purchase pool, spa, kids play areas and security are Rokoun Residences (2016).