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Saudi Arabia Market Review & Forecast 2019

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RESEARCH SAUDI ARABIA MARKET REVIEW & FORECAST 2019 THE ANNUAL REVIEW AND FORECAST OF THE SAUDI ARABIAN REAL ESTATE MARKET RESEARCH SAUDI ARABIA MARKET REVIEW & FORECAST 2019 Key findings Looking at the real estate market performance in 2018, the general trend for Saudi Arabia is that most sectors have remained subdued GDP growth is set to remain on a positive trajectory averaging 2.2% over as highlighted by lower activity levels, while occupancy rates have the next five years according to the IMF been under pressure across most asset classes leading to a gradual latest estimates. softening of rental and sale prices. The REIT market continued expanding While we see this current situation in 2018 and now exceeds USD 3 billion prevailing in the short term, we remain Macroeconomic in market capitalization. The pace of optimistic for the longer term due to the listings is set to moderate in 2019 as Overview various government initiatives aimed at indicated by the current pipeline. stimulating the real estate market whilst 2018 overview encouraging the private sector to take Key prime office schemes continued Following a deceleration in 2017, a key role in this process, as part of the to outperform the market average in Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth began to recently introduced strategic reforms. 2018 as a result of a lack of high quality recover in the first quarter of 2018. It is stock. As new schemes are released The approval of regulations for the use estimated to have reached 2.2% in 2018 into the market this trend is unlikely to and listing of REITs in Saudi Arabia is a according to the IMF latest estimates persist over the long term. case in point, as it signals an important and is set to further accelerate, reaching step in the government’s drive to boost 2.3% in 2019. The return to growth has Downward pressures have continued to private sector participation in the sector been underpinned by a combination of weigh on the residential market in 2018, and increase transparency in real estate favourable factors including a rebound in impacting activity levels and prices. markets where visibility around asset oil prices, a gradual acceleration in the Government initiatives are a step in the performance, ownership and legislation growth of the non-oil economy and the right direction for a more active market are key to attracting capital to the sector. government’s shift away from a tight fiscal over the coming years. policy as announced in the 2018 and Moreover, the implementation of various 2019 budgets. The Purchasing Manager urban regeneration initiatives including Despite pressures on the performance Index (PMI), a non-oil economy tracker, mixed-use communities and large- of many hospitality markets within the stood at 55.2 in November 2018, which is scale infrastructure projects is expected Kingdom in recent years, we expect well above the neutral 50 level indicating to act as a catalyst for the real estate to see a recovery in the short to an expansion in the non-oil sector and a market. The Riyadh Metro is one of medium term, as diversification efforts, significant recovery of the index from its infrastructure projects and tourism the key infrastructure projects that is lowest level on record registered in April initiatives come online. being implemented and which is set to 2018 (51.4). Nevertheless, the indicator dramatically alter the dynamics of both remains low by historical standards residential and commercial real estate despite the rebound in oil prices this year. markets when delivered. FIGURE 1 Key macroeconomic indicators 4% 120 3% 100 RAYA MAJDALANI 2% 80 Research Manager 1% 0% 60 “Despite the ongoing slowdown -1% 40 in the real estate market, -2% 20 we remain optimistic for the -3% longer term due to the various -4% 0 government initiatives aimed at 2017 2017 2018 6/2018 7/2018 8/2018 9/2018 2018 (F) 2019 (F) 2018 (F) 2019 (F) 2019 (F) 2020 (F) stimulating the market.” 11/2014 11/2015 11/2016 11/2017 11/2018 10/2018 11/2018 GDP NON-OIL GDP EMPLOYMENT OIL PRICES, KSA PURCHASING Y-o-Y % Y-o-Y % Y-o-Y % IN USD MANAGER’S INDEX CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE (RHS) (RHS) Please refer to the important notice at the end of this report. Source: Knight Frank Research, IMF, Macrobond, Oxford Economics SAUDI ARABIA MARKET REVIEW & FORECAST 2019 Outlook Looking at the asset allocation of existing FIGURE 2 REITs, the vast majority of REITS have Saudi REITs classified by investment GDP growth is expected to remain on their investments spread across multiple approach, Q4 2018 a positive trajectory over the coming real estate asset classes, which is in part years, averaging 2.2% over the next five due to a lack of maturity in the market years according to the IMF estimates. and a constrained pipeline of institutional Diversified Thematic Generally, the outlook and sentiment for grade assets. Looking at market Saudi Arabia’s economy remain cautiously performance, we noted in our previous positive and the recovery in economic Q1 18 review the fact that most REITs growth that occurred in 2018 is yet to had already pared back early gains and 81% 19% translate into a substantial improvement in were trading below listing price. During economic conditions. 2018*, price moderation continued as Employment growth is forecast to remain highlighted by the REIT index dropping Source: Knight Frank Research, Tadawul supported by the various initiatives aimed by approximately 30% in the context at boosting youth, women and Saudi of a weakening real estate backdrop translating into a drop in the real estate nationals’ participation in the workforce. FIGURE 3 index on the Tadawul by just over 20%. In the short term, this will be balanced 2018 yearly performance: On a positive note, the Tadawul all share by rising pressures on the expat labour REITs index vs. real estate index vs. index was up by almost 10% pointing market resulting from the impact of Tadawul all share index* government fees and Saudization plans to healthy gains for the full year 2018, on non-Saudi employment figures. supported by a buoy investor sentiment driven by the expected inclusion in the Tadawul In line with the Vision 2030 and the MSCI and FTSE Russel EM indices National Transformation Plan (NTP), and by the overall improvement in the restructuring of the economy to macroeconomic conditions in 2018. Real estate index decrease the Kingdom’s reliance on the hydrocarbon sector and to support stronger non-oil growth looks set to Outlook REITs index remain a central element of economic In 2019, we expect the pace of REITs policy over the coming years, yet this listings to moderate as indicated by 0% 5% -5% is likely to be a gradual process, which 10% 15% fewer numbers of approved REITs in -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% requires some time to come into effect. the pipeline. Going forward, the greater *Note: 2018 variation calculated as at 09/12/2018 choice of available REITs is likely to drive Source: Knight Frank Research, Tadawul prices towards fundamental valuations, REITs in Focus as investors increase their focus on fundamentals including income generation 2018 overview Since our last review in May 2018, and dividend yields as more performance the REIT market in Saudi Arabia has information becomes available. This will continued to expand and now surpasses be particularly important for investors USD 3 billion in terms of market looking to adopt a longer term investment “In 2018, the REIT market capitalization, compared to just over approach. With an increase in the number in Saudi Arabia has USD 2 billion in Q1 2018. Four additional of listed REITs, we expect the level of competition to increase in the market, continued to expand and REITs were listed on the market, taking now surpasses USD 3 up the total number of listed REITs on which would translate into a greater billion in terms of market the Tadawul to 16 at the date of writing focus on the adoption of best-in-class compared to 12 at the end of Q1 18. practices in terms of quality of the capitalization.” From a regulatory perspective, the underlying portfolio, asset management Saudi Arabian Capital Market Authority and corporate governance. Moreover, (CMA) has recently approved a number it is likely that we will start seeing the of amendments to initial regulations emergence of more thematic REITs as governing REITs, including the increase in the market gains in maturity enabling the minimum capital requirement for new investors to gain exposure to specific real funds from SAR 100 million to SAR 500 estate sectors. million. A strong and evolving regulatory framework, which has proven to be favourable in more mature jurisdictions, will remain a key objective in the development of the REIT market in Saudi Arabia. *Note: 2018 variation calculated as at 09/12/2018 SAUDI ARABIA MARKET REVIEW & FORECAST 2019 FIGURE 4 landlords to continue offering incentives Grade A - Q4 2018 performance Office Market in order to maintain occupancy levels indicators and 12-month outlook 2018 overview amid an increasingly competitive market. Longer term, we see demand for office 2,000 Whilst there have been a number of space picking up from current levels as notable commercial office transactions economic reforms under the National RIYADH 1,500 throughout 2018, as key occupiers both Transformation Plan (NTP) and Vision from the public and private sector look to 2030 start feeding through the wider JEDDAH KHOBAR 1,000 expand or move to upgraded premises, economy, translating into an acceleration DAMMAM the market continues to be dominated by of growth in the non-oil private sector.
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