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Libya Oil & Gas Report Q1 2011

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Libya Oil & Gas Report Q1 2011 Q1 2011 www.businessmonitor.com LIBYA OIL & GAS REPORT INCLUDES 10-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2020 ISSN 1748-409X Published by Business Monitor International Ltd. LIBYA OIL & GAS REPORT Q1 2011 INCLUDES 10-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2020 Part of BMI’s Industry Survey & Forecasts Series Published by: Business Monitor International Copy deadline: October 2010 Business Monitor International © 2010 Business Monitor International. Mermaid House, All rights reserved. 2 Puddle Dock, London, EC4V 3DS, All information contained in this publication is UK copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 International, and as such no part of this publication Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in Email: [email protected] whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any Web: http://www.businessmonitor.com means graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omissions affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. Libya Oil & Gas Report Q1 2011 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 2 Libya Oil & Gas Report Q1 2011 CONTENTS Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 7 Libya Energy Market Overview ....................................................................................................................... 9 Global Oil Market Review .............................................................................................................................. 11 Regaining Momentum ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 11 Quarterly Trends ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 12 Global Oil Market Outlook ............................................................................................................................. 13 Sitting Comfortably ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13 Oil Price Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 14 Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook ....................................................................................................... 15 Short-Term Demand Outlook .................................................................................................................................................................................... 15 Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) ............................................................................................................................................................ 16 Short-Term Supply Outlook ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 16 Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)................................................................................................................................................................ 17 Longer-Term Supply And Demand ............................................................................................................................................................................ 18 Oil Price Assumptions............................................................................................................................................................................................... 20 Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2010 ................................................................................................................................................................. 20 Table: Oil Price Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................................................... 20 Regional Market Overview ............................................................................................................................ 21 Oil Supply And Demand ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 21 Table: Africa’s Oil Consumption, 2008-2015 (000b/d) ........................................................................................................................................ 22 Table: Africa’s Oil Production, 2008-2015 (000b/d) ........................................................................................................................................... 23 Oil: Downstream ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 24 Table: Africa’s Oil Refining Capacity, 2008-2015 (000b/d) ................................................................................................................................ 24 Gas Supply And Demand .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 25 Table: Africa’s Gas Consumption, 2008-2015 (bcm) ........................................................................................................................................... 25 Table: Africa’s Gas Production, 2008-2015 (bcm) .............................................................................................................................................. 26 Liquefied Natural Gas............................................................................................................................................................................................... 27 Table: Africa’s LNG Exports, 2008-2015 (bcm) .................................................................................................................................................. 27 Business Environment Ratings .................................................................................................................... 28 Composite Scores................................................................................................................................................................................................. 28 Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating .................................................................................................................................. 28 Upstream Scores .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 29 Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Ratings .................................................................................................................................. 29 Libya Upstream Rating – Overview ..................................................................................................................................................................... 30 Libya Upstream Rating – Rewards ...................................................................................................................................................................... 30 Libya Upstream Rating – Risks ............................................................................................................................................................................ 30 Downstream Scores ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 31 Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Ratings ............................................................................................................................. 31 Libya Downstream Rating – Overview ................................................................................................................................................................ 32 Libya Downstream Rating – Rewards .................................................................................................................................................................
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