Q1 2011 www.businessmonitor.com LIBYA OIL & GAS REPORT INCLUDES 10-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2020 ISSN 1748-409X Published by Business Monitor International Ltd. LIBYA OIL & GAS REPORT Q1 2011 INCLUDES 10-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2020 Part of BMI’s Industry Survey & Forecasts Series Published by: Business Monitor International Copy deadline: October 2010 Business Monitor International © 2010 Business Monitor International. 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Libya Oil & Gas Report Q1 2011 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 2 Libya Oil & Gas Report Q1 2011 CONTENTS Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 7 Libya Energy Market Overview ....................................................................................................................... 9 Global Oil Market Review .............................................................................................................................. 11 Regaining Momentum ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 11 Quarterly Trends ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 12 Global Oil Market Outlook ............................................................................................................................. 13 Sitting Comfortably ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13 Oil Price Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 14 Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook ....................................................................................................... 15 Short-Term Demand Outlook .................................................................................................................................................................................... 15 Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) ............................................................................................................................................................ 16 Short-Term Supply Outlook ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 16 Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)................................................................................................................................................................ 17 Longer-Term Supply And Demand ............................................................................................................................................................................ 18 Oil Price Assumptions............................................................................................................................................................................................... 20 Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2010 ................................................................................................................................................................. 20 Table: Oil Price Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................................................... 20 Regional Market Overview ............................................................................................................................ 21 Oil Supply And Demand ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 21 Table: Africa’s Oil Consumption, 2008-2015 (000b/d) ........................................................................................................................................ 22 Table: Africa’s Oil Production, 2008-2015 (000b/d) ........................................................................................................................................... 23 Oil: Downstream ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 24 Table: Africa’s Oil Refining Capacity, 2008-2015 (000b/d) ................................................................................................................................ 24 Gas Supply And Demand .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 25 Table: Africa’s Gas Consumption, 2008-2015 (bcm) ........................................................................................................................................... 25 Table: Africa’s Gas Production, 2008-2015 (bcm) .............................................................................................................................................. 26 Liquefied Natural Gas............................................................................................................................................................................................... 27 Table: Africa’s LNG Exports, 2008-2015 (bcm) .................................................................................................................................................. 27 Business Environment Ratings .................................................................................................................... 28 Composite Scores................................................................................................................................................................................................. 28 Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating .................................................................................................................................. 28 Upstream Scores .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 29 Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Ratings .................................................................................................................................. 29 Libya Upstream Rating – Overview ..................................................................................................................................................................... 30 Libya Upstream Rating – Rewards ...................................................................................................................................................................... 30 Libya Upstream Rating – Risks ............................................................................................................................................................................ 30 Downstream Scores ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 31 Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Ratings ............................................................................................................................. 31 Libya Downstream Rating – Overview ................................................................................................................................................................ 32 Libya Downstream Rating – Rewards .................................................................................................................................................................