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Libya Oil and Gas Industry Strategic Report Ninth Edition April 2020

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Libya Oil and Gas Industry Strategic Report Ninth Edition April 2020 This is the Ninth Edition of our definitive report on Libya’s Oil and Gas Industry. It contains 475 pages and includes data on over 80 developed and undeveloped fields. Libya Oil and Gas Industry Strategic Report By Ninth Edition April 2020 Produced By Our Product Clients For a full list of clients see: http://www.bayphase.com/clients.php Introduction This report charts Libya’s oil and gas potential and is a must for anyone interested in engaging in its oil and gas sector. Libya's proximity to Europe, its sweet high quality crude oil, its significant gas reserves make this report a must, not just for oil and gas professionals, but also for those interested in assessing Libya's strategic impact on hydrocarbon supplies to the EU and the USA. This issue includes the results of the licensing awards made since lifting of sanctions and exploration drilling conducted in license areas. This Report is the Eighth Edition of Bayphase's Libya Oil and Gas Industry Strategic Report. It provides a comprehensive review of Libya’s Oil and Gas Industry, including these elements: - Upstream: Fields, Production Facilities and Exploration Potential - Midstream: Pipelines, Terminals - Downstream: Refineries, Petrochemical Plants, Gas Processing Plants - Infrastructure: Power Generation, Transportation Though the Report presents an industry wide assessment its main focus is Libya's upstream oil and gas fields and their production facilities. Here a basinal view of Libya has been taken with the country categorized in to its six main sedimentary basins: - Sirte - Ghadames - Murzuk - Offshore/Tripolitania - Cyrenica - Kufra The Report is supplied with a folded copy of the latest edition of our Libya Exploration and Production Three Map Set. The report provides analysis and enhanced data sets on over 80 oil and gas fields; some currently in production - others undeveloped awaiting investment. This also includes historical production updates and figures for each of fields in Libya 2003-2019. The report also examines licensing and Exploration Potential in all of Libya's sedimentary basins to provide an assessment of the investment likely to be expended in exploration activities and the reserves increments that could potentially result. For one year following, purchasing customers will be supplied with any updates made to the report. From an Oil Reserves Perspective, the report charts Libya's proven plus probable reserves of 67 Billion barrels. From a Gas Reserves Perspective, the report charts Libya's proven plus probable reserves of 89 Trillion Standard Cubic Feet. From an Investment Perspective, the report shows how between 46 and 81 Billion United States Dollars of investment will be required by Libya's oil and gas industry over the next 15 years to unlock its production potential. We have developed a companion publication to this Report that analyses the economics associated with each of the fields we have identified here - see the Libya Fields Financial Report web page for more details. Report History: i. 1st Edition October 2007 - 420 pages ii. 2nd Edition December 2007 - 437 pages iii. 3rd Edition May 2009 - 442 Pages iv. 4th Edition July 2011 - 450 Pages v. 5th Edition February 2012 - 455 Pages vi. 6th Edition March 2013 - 455 Pages vii. 7th Edition March 2014 – 438 Pages viii. 8th Edition November 2017 – 448 Pages What You Get: - Paper Version of our current Libya Oil and Gas Industry Strategic Report - Free Searchable pdf of our current Libya Oil and Gas Industry Strategic Report - Paper Version (Folded) of our current Libya E&P Three Map Set The analysis carried out on the 80 fields is indicated by the field sample provided below: 1.1.1.1.1.1 Waha This field is also known as Al Waha. In our assessment we consider that the Waha Field to include the Waha field itself and the North Waha field. The Waha field, located in concession 59 Central, is now operated by the Oasis group (consisting of ConocoPhillips, Marathon and Amerada Hess). It has seen production fall from nearly 1 million barrels of oil per day (bopd) in 1986 to below 100,000bopd in early 2004. During this period oil production dropped to 16,000 barrels per day and water cut at 80% high. This precipitous drop seems primarily due to the lack of investment in secondary recovery and the US/UN Sanctions. The Oasis group Operatorship of the field and the Waha Concession was suspended in 1986, subsequently the Waha Oil Company, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Libyan National Oil Corporation took over Operatorship and has operated the field from the suspension to the end of 2005. In December 2005 the Oasis group partners announced they had successfully negotiated their return to the concession. It is now assumed that a refurbishment program will be implemented followed by the implementation of secondary recovery to boost production. In 2017, the field lost over 75,000bopd due to the continuous fighting between militia groups affiliated with a rival government and other violence group. The fighting caused a linked pipeline to become damaged and as such hampering production output. In 2018 the field produced 300,000bopd and the production gradually increases to 350,000bopd in first quarter of through to the fourth quarter of 2019. Because of uncertainties surrounding average production rates, we have discounted the production rates both for 2018 and 2019 by 10%, that is, 270,000bopd and 315,000bopd respectively. Key Field Data Table 1.1: Waha Key Field Data Parameter Value Discovery Date 1960 On-stream Date 1963 Reserves Original Oil (Million Barrels) 2,120 Table 1.1: Waha Key Field Data Parameter Value Gas (Billion Cubic Feet) 232 Oil (Million Barrels) 6301 Remaining Gas (Billion Cubic Feet) 632 Prospective Resources (Upside Oil (Million Barrels) 100 Exploration Potential) Gas (Billion Cubic Feet) Oil (Barrels per day) 315,000 Current Gas (Million Standard Cubic Feet per day) Production Oil (Barrels per day) 430,000 Potential Gas (Million Standard Cubic Feet per day) 10 Producing Horizon(s) Upper Cretaceous Rock Type(s) Limestone /Quartzites Reservoir Depth (Feet) 6,050-6,140 Geology Gross Rock Volume (Million Cubic Feet) 193,000 Reservoir Thickness (Feet) 320 Porosity (%) 7 Gravity (º API) 35.4 – 38.4 Sulphur Content (wt %) Oil Pour Point (°C) -15 Wax Content (wt %) Fluid Properties Gas Oil Ratio (Standard Cubic Feet/barrel) 310 Hydrogen Sulphide Content (mol %) Gas Carbon Dioxide Content (mol %) 0.5 Molecular Weight Number of Producers 55 Subsurface Number of Gas Injectors Existing Number of Water Injectors 9 Facilities Separation Capacity (bpd) 1,000,000 Surface Compression Capacity (MMscfd) Acid Gas Treatment Capacity (MMscfd) A further piece of key data we have been able to establish, based on our in-country research, data gathering processes and review and cross-correlation of field reports and literature is the field’s production history from the years 2003-2019. This is presented in the table below on the average daily production figures (bopd). This table has been compiled on a best-effort basis. Table 1.2: Waha Average Daily Oil Production Average Daily Average Daily Average Daily Year Oil Production Year Oil Production Year Oil Production (bopd) (bopd) (bopd) 2003 196,060 2009 201,650 2015 2004 199,570 2010 189,480 2016 2005 200,060 2011 46,850 2017 2006 203,740 2012 204,070 2018 270,000 2007 202,460 2013 85,200 2019 315,000 2008 205,790 2014 Commercial Data 1 Estimate based on concession renegotiation announcement and expectation that the field will experience reserves growth through further development including infill drilling and the application of enhanced recovery. 2 Based on an associated gas oil ratio of 100 standard cubic feet per stock tank barrel. The field is operated by the Waha Oil Co. This is a Libyan company formed to take over from Oasis, after the group’s withdrawal from Libya due to US economic sanctions in 1986. However, following the lifting of sanctions in 2004, the Oasis Group reached an agreement with the NOC in 2005, under which it could return to their previously operated fields. This was done by turning the Waha Oil Company into a joint venture between the NOC and former Oasis partners – ConocoPhillips, Marathon and Amerada Hess. In gaining re-entry to the field, the Oasis group partners negotiated fiscal terms essentially the same as the terms in effect at the time of suspension of the license. The re-entry terms included a 25-year extension of the concessions through 2031-34, and a payment of $1.3billion to the Libyan National Oil Corporation for re-entry and the extension of the concessions. In addition, the companies will make a contribution to unamortised investments made since 1986 of $530million that was agreed to be paid as part of the 1986 standstill agreement to hold the assets in escrow for the U.S. partners. In effect on a proven reserves basis the Oasis group partners paid 4.57$/barrel to achieve re- entry; on a probabilistic P50 basis, taking in to account potential reserves growth in the whole of the concession the price was around 1.83$/barrel. In November 2019 - Total reached an agreement with NOC on the French company’s acquisition of a stake in the Waha concessions. Total bought the Marathon Oil’s minority stake in the Waha concessions for $450 million U.S. Dollar. The Paris-based producer has committed to invest an additional 650 million U.S. Dollar in Waha and this will boost production capacity by 180,000bopd through the development of North Gialo and NC 98 projects. Table 1.3: Waha Commercial Data Parameter Value Contract Type Concession Contract Effective Date 1955 Operator Waha Oil Co.
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