SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT Monthly 31 May 2007 JUNE 2007 This report is available online and can beFORECAST viewed together with Update Reports on developments during the month at www.securitycouncilreport.org CONTENTS OF THIS ISSUE OVERVIEW FOR JUNE Status Update since our May Belgium will have the Council presidency n Côte d’Ivoire (UNOCI); and Forecast ...........................................3 in June. n Golan Heights (UNDOF). Kosovo ..................................................4 Darfur/Sudan .......................................5 June is traditionally a month with a very heavy In addition to these four renewals, formal Chad/Central African Republic ........7 work schedule for the Council. This year is meetings of the Council are also expected Lebanon................................................9 no exception. Moreover, Council members on four general or thematic issues: Golan Heights (UNDOF) ..................11 have scheduled a mission to Africa with visits Somalia ...............................................12 n Middle East (the standard monthly meeting); to the AU Headquarters in Addis Ababa and Iran ......................................................13 Côte d’lvoire ......................................14 the current AU presidency in Ghana. In addi- n Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict Cyprus ................................................16 tion a smaller Council delegation is likely to (the regular semi-annual briefing); visit Côte d’Ivoire and Sudan. Iraq ......................................................18 n International Criminal Tribunals for the Liberia .................................................20 There are four mandates which expire and former Yugoslavia and Rwanda (ICTY Guinea-Bissau ...................................20 renewal will need to be considered: and ICTR); and Peacebuilding Commission ...........21 n Cyprus (UNFICYP); International Criminal Tribunals ....22 n Liberia (Panel of Experts); >>page 2 Notable Dates for June ....................24 Important Dates over the Horizon ...24 Aide-Memoire Important matters pending before the Coun- but divisions remain. n The December 2004 report by the Secretary- cil include: n Action on the Secretary-General’s recom- General on human rights violations in Côte n The draft resolution on small arms circulated mendations for a peacekeeping force in d’Ivoire, requested by a presidential state- by Argentina in March 2006 seems to have Chad and the Central African Republic is ment, has still not been made public. Also lapsed. South Africa circulated a draft presi- still awaited, because of Chad’s hesitation on Côte d’Ivoire, the December 2005 report dential statement in March 2007. After about both the proposed robust military com- by the Secretary-General’s Special Adviser disappearing in January and February, the ponent and a credible political reconciliation on the Prevention of Genocide has not issue has been reinstated as a footnote on process. Consultations between Chad and been published. the Council’s calendar since March, but it the Secretariat are underway. n The 2005 World Summit requested reforms has not yet been taken up. The absence of n On the DRC, the Council is still to consider relating to the Military Staff Committee. This a Council decision on this matter leaves imposing individual sanctions under has yet to be addressed. future periodic Secretary-General’s reports resolution 1698 against armed groups that n On Somalia, the Council is still to consider in abeyance. recruit children. taking measures against those who seek to n Implementation of the phased approach for n On West Africa, the Council held consulta- prevent or block a peaceful political process, Darfur as agreed in Abuja in November 2006 tions on the Secretary-General’s report on threaten the Transitional Federal Institutions is lagging. A more detailed AU-UN agreement cross-border issues on 16 March but no by force, or take action that undermines on the hybrid operation as endorsed by follow-up has been considered, which may stability in Somalia or the region as set in the Council on 19 December had just been put future reports in that regard in abeyance. resolution 1744. finalised at press time. n The Council is waiting for the Secretary- n The Council, through resolutions 1483 and n Action, as envisaged in resolution 1706 in General’s recommendations on the status of 1546, had expressed its intention to revisit the Darfur, has not been taken to impose “strong the Sheb’a Farms. In his last report on mandate of the UN Monitoring, Verification effective measures, such as assets freeze or implementation of resolution 1701 (issued on and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC), travel ban, against any individual or group 14 March), the Secretary-General mentioned and Iraq had also made that request. A that violates or attempts to block the imple- good progress on the cartographic analysis draft resolution to terminate the mandate of mentation of the [Darfur Peace] Agreement of the status of the Farms, and said that UNMOVIC sponsored by the US and the UK or commits human rights violations.” A the technical work would be completed by is currently being discussed among the P5. number of proposals are being considered the next reporting period in mid-June. Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 1 OVERVIEW FOR JUNE (continued) n a new thematic agenda item initiated by involve outbreaks of violence and possibly Hariri assassination will have the adverse Belgium dealing with the contribution that parallel unilateral attempts at secession by effects on the situation in Lebanon that some natural resources can make to initiat- Serb sections of Kosovo. had feared. ing and sustaining conflict. At this stage it seems that exploration of At press time, it seemed that the reaction on Guinea-Bissau and Iraq are expected to be compromise possibilities in the text in return the ground was more low-key than the discussed, but probably only in informal for a Russian abstention is difficult because tribunal’s opponents had predicted. Looming consultations. of the firm attachment by Russia to its three much more largely in many minds is the basic points. Perhaps the G8 meetings will uncomfortable reality that the anniversary Despite this already long list, the key focus provide an opportunity to receive authorita- of the events which led to the 2006 Israel/ for most members of the Council during tive steer from Moscow on the kinds of Lebanon war is now just a month away. While June is likely to be the six other major issues elements which might make a constructive the reinforced UNIFIL has achieved a signifi- facing the Council at this time: compromise. The Summit between Presi- cant amount on the peacekeeping front, the n Kosovo; dents Putin and Bush on 1-2 July may also wider issues in the mandate established in n Darfur; be a factor. It could produce a determination resolution 1701 largely remain unaddressed. n Chad/CAR; to resolve the issue before the Summit or n Iran; The Council will have a report on 1701 from alternatively become an issue reserved for n Somalia; and the Secretary-General and possibly some final resolution at the Summit. n Lebanon recommendations on border issues, both Darfur/Sudan the security of the Lebanon/Syria border in Discussion of these issues is likely to be June is likely to be the critical month in terms the north, to prevent arms smuggling, and concentrated in meetings of experts from of the way ahead on Darfur. the delineation of the Lebanon border in the Council delegations or informal consultations South, in the Sheb’a Farms area. Council at the Permanent Representative level. How- Khartoum has inched forward in terms of members will be considering action on these ever, it seems probable that some or all of accepting the packages of support from the aspects. And, in order to pre-empt as far as these issues will also be the subject of formal UN to AMIS, the beleaguered African Union possible fallout from the war anniversary, meetings of the Council to adopt decisions. peacekeeping mission. And there is now some may be very keen to see the Council firm agreement between the UN and the Kosovo taking a higher profile in reenergising the AU on the details for the “Hybrid AU/UN” The Council mission to Kosovo in April other aspects of the 1701 mandate. mission. But there are real concerns that seems to have crystallised views and there Sudan will again drag its feet on the hybrid Iran is now a much wider acceptance that main- mission. (The fact that the support packages The standoff seems likely to continue with taining the status quo is not a viable option. and the hybrid mission were given high-level Iran insisting that there should be no pre As a result the Russian position that action approval by the AU in December and it is conditions for negotiation on its nuclear should be delayed to allow further negotiation now June and the humanitarian crisis has programme and the P5 committed to a track is attracting much less support. Elected continued to worsen during that period on which negotiations could only commence Council members seem also to be giving leaves some Council members convinced if there were a token of good faith in the form weight to the fact that in June three months that a tougher posture towards Sudan is of suspension of current enrichment activity. will have passed since Ahtisaari’s recom- required. Hence the talk of sanctions as Unless the discussions between the envoys men-dations became known and it is not an alternative has grown louder and the US of the EU (Solana) and Iran (Larijani), which unreasonable to now put the issue up for has already put in place some domestic had just commenced at press time, lead to decision one way or the other. That said there is measures as a warning to Sudan.) some unexpected positive developments, it also a strong sense that it is a European issue seems likely that the Council will be negotiat- and some frustration that Russia and the In June the Council is likely to be considering ing a further sanctions resolution in June.