SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT Monthly JUNE 2007 31 May 2007 This report is available online and can beFORECAST viewed together with Update Reports on developments during the month at www.securitycouncilreport.org

CONTENTS OF THIS ISSUE OVERVIEW FOR JUNE Status Update since our May Belgium will have the Council presidency n Côte d’Ivoire (UNOCI); and Forecast...... 3 in June. n Golan Heights (UNDOF). Kosovo...... 4 Darfur/Sudan...... 5 June is traditionally a month with a very heavy In addition to these four renewals, formal Chad/Central African Republic...... 7 work schedule for the Council. This year is meetings of the Council are also expected Lebanon...... 9 no exception. Moreover, Council members on four general or thematic issues: Golan Heights (UNDOF)...... 11 have scheduled a mission to Africa with visits Somalia...... 12 n Middle East (the standard monthly meeting); to the AU Headquarters in Addis Ababa and Iran...... 13 Côte d’lvoire...... 14 the current AU presidency in Ghana. In addi- n Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict Cyprus...... 16 tion a smaller Council delegation is likely to (the regular semi-annual briefing); visit Côte d’Ivoire and Sudan. Iraq...... 18 n International Criminal Tribunals for the Liberia...... 20 There are four mandates which expire and former Yugoslavia and Rwanda (ICTY Guinea-Bissau...... 20 renewal will need to be considered: and ICTR); and Peacebuilding Commission...... 21 n Cyprus (UNFICYP); International Criminal Tribunals.....22 n Liberia (Panel of Experts); >>page 2 Notable Dates for June...... 24 Important Dates over the Horizon....24

Aide-Memoire

Important matters pending before the Coun- but divisions remain. n The December 2004 report by the Secretary- cil include: n Action on the Secretary-General’s recom- General on human rights violations in Côte n The draft resolution on small arms circulated mendations for a peacekeeping force in d’Ivoire, requested by a presidential state- by Argentina in March 2006 seems to have Chad and the Central African Republic is ment, has still not been made public. Also lapsed. South Africa circulated a draft presi- still awaited, because of Chad’s hesitation on Côte d’Ivoire, the December 2005 report dential statement in March 2007. After about both the proposed robust military com- by the Secretary-General’s Special Adviser disappearing in January and February, the ponent and a credible political reconciliation on the Prevention of Genocide has not issue has been reinstated as a footnote on process. Consultations between Chad and been published. the Council’s calendar since March, but it the Secretariat are underway. n The 2005 World Summit requested reforms has not yet been taken up. The absence of n On the DRC, the Council is still to consider relating to the Military Staff Committee. This a Council decision on this matter leaves imposing individual sanctions under has yet to be addressed. future periodic Secretary-General’s reports resolution 1698 against armed groups that n On Somalia, the Council is still to consider in abeyance. recruit children. taking measures against those who seek to n Implementation of the phased approach for n On West Africa, the Council held consulta- prevent or block a peaceful political process, Darfur as agreed in Abuja in November 2006 tions on the Secretary-General’s report on threaten the Transitional Federal Institutions is lagging. A more detailed AU-UN agreement cross-border issues on 16 March but no by force, or take action that undermines on the hybrid operation as endorsed by follow-up has been considered, which may stability in Somalia or the region as set in the Council on 19 December had just been put future reports in that regard in abeyance. resolution 1744. finalised at press time. n The Council is waiting for the Secretary- n The Council, through resolutions 1483 and n Action, as envisaged in resolution 1706 in General’s recommendations on the status of 1546, had expressed its intention to revisit the Darfur, has not been taken to impose “strong the Sheb’a Farms. In his last report on mandate of the UN Monitoring, Verification effective measures, such as assets freeze or implementation of resolution 1701 (issued on and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC), travel ban, against any individual or group 14 March), the Secretary-General mentioned and Iraq had also made that request. A that violates or attempts to block the imple- good progress on the cartographic analysis draft resolution to terminate the mandate of mentation of the [Darfur Peace] Agreement of the status of the Farms, and said that UNMOVIC sponsored by the US and the UK or commits human rights violations.” A the technical work would be completed by is currently being discussed among the P5. number of proposals are being considered the next reporting period in mid-June.

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org  OVERVIEW FOR JUNE (continued) n a new thematic agenda item initiated by involve outbreaks of violence and possibly Hariri assassination will have the adverse Belgium dealing with the contribution that parallel unilateral attempts at secession by effects on the situation in Lebanon that some natural resources can make to initiat- Serb sections of Kosovo. had feared. ing and sustaining conflict. At this stage it seems that exploration of At press time, it seemed that the reaction on Guinea-Bissau and Iraq are expected to be compromise possibilities in the text in return the ground was more low-key than the discussed, but probably only in informal for a Russian abstention is difficult because tribunal’s opponents had predicted. Looming consultations. of the firm attachment by Russia to its three much more largely in many minds is the basic points. Perhaps the G8 meetings will uncomfortable reality that the anniversary Despite this already long list, the key focus provide an opportunity to receive authorita- of the events which led to the 2006 Israel/ for most members of the Council during tive steer from Moscow on the kinds of Lebanon war is now just a month away. While June is likely to be the six other major issues elements which might make a constructive the reinforced UNIFIL has achieved a signifi- facing the Council at this time: compromise. The Summit between Presi- cant amount on the peacekeeping front, the n Kosovo; dents Putin and Bush on 1-2 July may also wider issues in the mandate established in n Darfur; be a factor. It could produce a determination resolution 1701 largely remain unaddressed. n Chad/CAR; to resolve the issue before the Summit or n Iran; The Council will have a report on 1701 from alternatively become an issue reserved for n Somalia; and the Secretary-General and possibly some final resolution at the Summit. n Lebanon recommendations on border issues, both Darfur/Sudan the security of the Lebanon/Syria border in Discussion of these issues is likely to be June is likely to be the critical month in terms the north, to prevent arms smuggling, and concentrated in meetings of experts from of the way ahead on Darfur. the delineation of the Lebanon border in the Council delegations or informal consultations South, in the Sheb’a Farms area. Council at the Permanent Representative level. How- Khartoum has inched forward in terms of members will be considering action on these ever, it seems probable that some or all of accepting the packages of support from the aspects. And, in order to pre-empt as far as these issues will also be the subject of formal UN to AMIS, the beleaguered African Union possible fallout from the war anniversary, meetings of the Council to adopt decisions. peacekeeping mission. And there is now some may be very keen to see the Council firm agreement between the UN and the Kosovo taking a higher profile in reenergising the AU on the details for the “Hybrid AU/UN” The Council mission to Kosovo in April other aspects of the 1701 mandate. mission. But there are real concerns that seems to have crystallised views and there Sudan will again drag its feet on the hybrid Iran is now a much wider acceptance that main- mission. (The fact that the support packages The standoff seems likely to continue with taining the status quo is not a viable option. and the hybrid mission were given high-level Iran insisting that there should be no pre As a result the Russian position that action approval by the AU in December and it is conditions for negotiation on its nuclear should be delayed to allow further negotiation now June and the humanitarian crisis has programme and the P5 committed to a track is attracting much less support. Elected continued to worsen during that period on which negotiations could only commence Council members seem also to be giving leaves some Council members convinced if there were a token of good faith in the form weight to the fact that in June three months that a tougher posture towards Sudan is of suspension of current enrichment activity. will have passed since Ahtisaari’s recom- required. Hence the talk of sanctions as Unless the discussions between the envoys men-dations became known and it is not an alternative has grown louder and the US of the EU (Solana) and Iran (Larijani), which unreasonable to now put the issue up for has already put in place some domestic had just commenced at press time, lead to decision one way or the other. That said there is measures as a warning to Sudan.) some unexpected positive developments, it also a strong sense that it is a European issue seems likely that the Council will be negotiat- and some frustration that Russia and the In June the Council is likely to be considering ing a further sanctions resolution in June. Europeans should still be unable to sort it out. a resolution to authorise the funding for the hybrid mission. In addition it will be very If the EU and the US follow the same logic of The G8 Summit in early June offers an oppor- actively following the progress between the steadily increased incremental pressure, it tunity for high-level discussions. It is unclear Secretariat and Sudan regarding agreement seems likely that consensus will be obtained whether Russia prefers to negotiate a com- for early implementation and deployment. in the P5. It is unclear whether the elected promise to be decided by the Council which Council members will again assert a wider will mean accepting independence in some It is possible that the Council will also consider role in the drafting. However, the history of form or other, or whether it would prefer to what can be done to reinforce the political the last few months suggests that many of continue to reserve its position by vetoing reconciliation track and whether there are them (not just Indonesia and South Africa the adoption of the draft resolution on the incentives or disincentives that can be who presented amendments to the March table. This option would not block inde- brought to bear on the disparate players in resolution) will want to be seen to be playing pendence since it seems likely in such addition to the government. a full role in the decision process. circumstances that independence will occur unilaterally—with all the attendant adminis- Lebanon Somalia It remains to be seen whether the decision of trative and technical problems that it will The Council seems likely to continue to take the Security Council on 30 May to implement cause for the UN, the EU and NATO. The a cautious approach to the AU request that worst case scenario in this situation could the special tribunal to try suspects in the

 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org the UN should take over the peacekeeping However, dynamics in the Council will keep It is unclear if the Council will pick up any role in Somalia. This flows not just from the issue on the agenda, not only because of the options that may be available to ongoing concern that there is no peace to the African members remain concerned reinforce the political reconciliation process. keep, but also from an anxiety that the political about support for the Ugandan peacekeepers, Discussions during the mission to Addis reconciliation process may not be fully inclu- but also because the US remains concerned Ababa and Ghana may encourage a more sive and may result in a distorted outcome. about an exit strategy for the Ethiopian forces. active approach.

Status Update since our May Forecast Several of the recent developments on the (S/2007/259) and Uganda (S/2007/260). May. The briefing was expected to deal situations covered in our May Forecast are The Group also called for the immediate with the human rights situation in the DRC addressed in the relevant briefs in this demobilisation of all child soldiers in Sri and to update the Council on the steps issue. Other interesting Council develop- Lanka and Nepal. taken by the High Commissioner and ments in May included: n Democratic Republic of the Congo: On MONUC to address it. (Please see our 29 n Nepal: The Council considered the first 15 May, the Council adopted resolution May Update for more details.) Secretary-General’s report on the UN 1756 extending MONUC’s mandate to 31 n Sanctions Committees: On 22 May, the Mission in Nepal on 4 May (S/2007/235) December 2007 and maintaining the Council received its semi-annual briefing and was briefed by the Secretary-General’s mission’s personnel strength. The resolution from the chairmen of the 1373 (Counter- Special Representative for Nepal and head also requested that the Secretary-General terrorism), the 1267 (Al-Qaida/Taliban), and of UNMIN, Ian Martin, on the mission’s submit a report by 15 November which would the 1540 (WMDs) Committees (S/PV.5679). activities. On 1 May, Martin conveyed that include drawdown benchmarks for MONUC. The Counter-terrorism Committee reported the constituent assembly elections sched- n Bosnia and Herzegovina: On 16 May the on the assistance needed for improved uled for June would be delayed, most Council was briefed by the High Represen- state compliance (S/2007/254). The 1540 likely until mid-November. tative for the Implementation of the Peace Committee noted as its main concern the n Ethiopia/Eritrea: On 8 May the Council Agreement in Bosnia and Herzegovina, need to achieve improvement in states considered the Secretary-General’s most Christian Schwarz-Schilling, on his most fulfilling their reporting responsibility recent UNMEE report (S/2007/250) and recent report (S/2007/253). He emphasised (S/2007/257). The chairman of the 1267 issued a press statement expressing the need for Bosnia and Herzegovina to Committee said that improving the Com- concern over the impasse between the make progress on constitutional reform, mittee’s procedures and list of targeted two countries and reaffirming the integrity a unified police force and cooperation persons and organisations was a priority of the Temporary Security Zone (SC/9014). with the ICTY so that the EU Association (S/2007/229). The Council was also briefed on the Agreement could be implemented (SC/9018). n Afghanistan: On 23 May the Secretary- situation by the Assistant Secretary- (Please see our 14 May Update for more General’s Special Representative and head General for Peacekeeping Operations, details.) of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan Hedi Annabi, on 29 May. n Burundi: The Council considered the briefed the Council on the situation there n Peacebuilding Commission: On 10 May, Secretary-General’s first report on the UN in a private debate. An official communiqué the Security Council (with the General Integrated Office in Burundi on 21 May of the meeting was issued as S/PV.5680. Assembly) received the report of the Com- (S/2007/287) which praised the country’s n Timor-Leste: On 23 May the Council issued mission’s field mission to Sierra Leone cooperation with the Peacebuilding Com- a presidential statement (S/PRST/2007/14) (S/2007/269). mission. The Secretary-General also called after the successful conclusion of the n Sierra Leone: On 11 May the Council held on the government to establish a truth and 8 May runoff elections in Timor-Leste consultations on Sierra Leone and the reconciliation commission and a tribunal congratulating the Timorese people and Secretary-General’s report on UNIOSIL’s post- as originally stipulated in resolution 1606. President-elect Jose Ramos-Horta and election role (S/2007/257). The Secretary- On 30 May the Council adopted a presi- calling for free, fair and peaceful elections General praised preparations for the dential statement welcoming, inter alia, in the upcoming parliamentary poll, national elections which are now expected steps taken by the government to promote scheduled for 30 June. The statement also to take place on 11 August. However, his dialogue and reconciliation, but also urged expressed concern over the country’s report also noted that Sierra Leone still increased efforts in the promotion and fragile security situation and emphasised required the support of the international protection of human rights and in combat- continued cooperation between all parties. community and close work with the ing impunity (S/PRST/2007/16). The Council also held consultations on Peacebuilding Commission to consolidate n Humanitarian and Human Rights Situation Timor-Leste on 30 May. peace and make progress on combating in the Great Lakes Region and the Horn n Haiti: On 30 May the Council held consul- corruption and promoting accountability. of Africa: On 21 May, Under Secretary- tations on Haiti and recent gains in the No formal Council action was taken. General for Humanitarian Affairs John country’s security situation and the com- n Children and Armed Conflict: On 11 May Holmes briefed the Council on his visit to pletion of local elections. the Council’s Working Group on Children Somalia and northern Uganda (SC/9020). n Middle East: On 30 May the Council issued and Armed Conflict met to review the At press time, the Council was also set to a press statement expressing grave con- Secretary-General’s reports on children be briefed by the UN High Commissioner cern over the breakdown of the ceasefire in caught up in conflict in Somalia for Human Rights, Louise Arbour, on 31 the Gaza Strip (SC/9028).

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org  Kosovo US. US Secretary of State Condoleezza from Kosovo by the Serbian population. A Rice met Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Expected Council Action related issue is that UNMIK would be left in Lavrov in mid-May but failed to find com- an extremely difficult position as the de The endgame in the Council over Kosovo’s mon ground on Kosovo. The EU-Russia facto legal authority. Another issue is EU final status is expected in June. At press summit ended on 18 May and was unsuc- unity. Some believe that without a binding time there have been two expert-level meet- cessful in bringing the European and Chapter VII resolution the fragile EU posi- ings on the draft resolution circulated by the Russian positions any closer. tion will not hold. EU5 (France, the UK, Italy, Belgium and Slo- vakia) and US. A decision in June seems On 11 May in Serbia, a government was Within the Council a growing issue is a kind inevitable, bringing to a conclusion the formed after four months of delay, just in of “Kosovo fatigue.” Some members see debate over the report released in March by time to prevent a new election being called. this as essentially a European issue and are Martti Ahtisaari, the Secretary-General’s The EU has shown support for the new gov- beginning to resent being caught in a tussle Special Envoy for the Future Status Process ernment and signalled that if it cooperates between the Russia, EU and the US. for Kosovo. with the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) on the arrest Council and Wider Dynamics The Secretary-General’s periodic report on and extradition of suspects, negotiations on There has been a shift in Council dynamics the UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) is also a Stabilisation and Association Agreement since the mission. Discussions moved from expected in June. with the EU will follow. the philosophical to the practical. Having Key Recent Developments experienced realities on the ground many At press time Council members were members seem ready to accept that the In late April and May momentum on the expecting a pause in discussions in New status quo cannot be maintained. Council Kosovo issue picked up. The Council mis- York because of the pending G8 Summit members witnessed first-hand the gulf sion from 25 to 28 April was a major taking place from 6-8 June. High-level dis- between the two parties during meetings development. On 24 April, Under Secretary- cussion of Kosovo is expected in the wings. with key players from the Albanian and Ser- General for Peacekeeping Operations bian communities. Discussions with NATO Jean-Marie Guéhenno briefed the Council Options and the EU in Brussels seem to have satis- on resolution 1244, which in 1999 author- The Council has the following options. fied them that there would not be a security ised NATO to secure and enforce the n Adopting the current draft without void once UNMIK left. withdrawal of Yugoslav (FRY) forces from change. This is unlikely given that Russia Kosovo and also established UNMIK. has said that it cannot support this draft. The mission also enabled members to n Agreeing with the Russian proposal for a spend prolonged periods together discuss- The mission visited Belgrade, Pristina, Brus- substantively different approach from the ing the issue. Over time, the atmosphere sels and Vienna and met key players. The current draft. Among the possible ver- between the elected and permanent Coun- head of the mission, Ambassador Johan sions are: cil members has improved as effort has Verbeke of Belgium, gave an oral briefing to “Ahtisaari Plus,” which supersedes been made to include all 15 members of the the Council on 2 May. The formal mission resolution 1244 but substantially Council in the issue. European members report followed on 10 May. strengthens international oversight continue to play a key role in explaining the On 4 May the EU and the US circulated ini- and minority rights protection. importance of the issue to Europe. tial elements of a draft resolution to repeal “Ahtisaari Light,” which retains resolu- In May more countries openly endorsed resolution 1244 and implement the Ahtisaari tion 1244 but starts implementing the Ahtisaari’s proposal and it seems that there proposals. This was followed on 7 May by a decentralisation and protection of are now sufficient votes for the draft resolu- Russian paper containing its proposal ele- minority recommendations; tion to pass comfortably. While Indonesia ments which reaffirmed 1244, focused on “Ahtisaari minus Status,” which super- and South Africa have not made their final the implementation of standards and sug- sedes resolution 1244, accepts key positions public, they have indicated that gested phased implementation of Ahtisaari’s elements of the plan, including they do not want to rush the process and proposal. On 11 May the EU and the US cir- replacement of the UN by the EU but need to have a clear idea of the final picture culated a draft resolution. puts off determination of Kosovo’s final status subject to review. before making a decision. However, this The Contact Group on Kosovo—the US, the n Voting on a resolution which retains the does not seem inconsistent with making a UK, France, Italy, Russia and Germany— key elements of the EU/US draft, but decision by the end of June. has played a smaller role than expected. making some modifications designed to Russia still maintains that there should be Traditionally discussions of the draft resolu- meet some of Russia’s concerns, e.g., further negotiations and a study of 1244. It tion would have been managed in the the precedential effort of the resolution. has now openly referred to the possibility of Contact Drafting Group. However, two other a veto. It has said its three top concerns are Council members wanted discussions Key Issues The key issue seems to be the risk of Kosovo that it cannot agree to a resolution that brought into the Council. This suited endorses Ahtisaari’s recommendations, Russia, which has little support in the unilaterally declaring independence if the 1244 must remain in place, and Kosovo Contact Group. Council does not make a decision by the end of June. A unilateral declaration of inde- must not be able to be a precedent. Kosovo was also discussed at high-level pendence could lead to violence. It could By the end of May, the sense in the Council meetings involving Russia, the EU and the lead to a parallel declaration of secession was that it was up to Russia, the EU and the

 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org US to try and sort out a solution at a high international and 990 local as of 39 level at the G8 Summit. Many believed that September 2006) (Pillar 3) and this might still, at best, require a voted reso- 447(114 international and 333 local SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT lution with some abstentions. staff as of 31 March 2007) (Pillar 4) Monthly • Size of EU mission: 125 international UN Documents staff, 336 local staff JUNE 2007FORECAST Security Council Resolution Cost The mandate of the AU Mission in the Sudan • S/RES/1244 (10 June 1999) autho- $2.17 billion for fiscal year 2006-2007 (AMIS) is likely to be renewed by the AU rised NATO to secure and enforce the (not including OSCE, EU and NATO Peace and Security Council (PSC) by 1 July. withdrawal of Yugoslav (FRY) forces expenditures) from Kosovo and established UNMIK. KFOR (NATO FORCE) Key Recent Developments Limited humanitarian access and attacks Selected Presidential Statement General Roland Kather (Germany) against civilians and humanitarian workers • S/PRST/2005/51 (24 October 2005) Size and Composition of Mission have continued unabated in Darfur. Reports declared it was time to begin the • Size: 16,000 troops suggest that Sudan carried out aerial bom- political process to determine the • NATO countries: Belgium, Bulgaria, bardments, which the government denies. future status of Kosovo. Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, The High Commissioner for Human Rights Selected Letters France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, also reported that Sudanese forces had • S/2007/248 (30 April 2007) was the Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, indiscriminately attacked villages. The situ- letter from the Secretary-General on Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portu- ation is compounded by tribal and rebel the international security presence in gal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, in-fighting and critical shortages of AMIS Kosovo. Spain, Turkey, UK, US funding leading to troubling salary arrears. • S/2007/220 (19 April 2007) was the • Non-NATO countries: Argentina, The Council received the AU-UN report on letter from the Council president to Armenia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Finland, the hybrid operation on 23 May. This was the Secretary-General with the terms Georgia, Ireland, Morocco, Sweden, the culmination of months of difficult AU-UN of reference and composition of the Switzerland, Ukraine negotiations on the mandate and structure mission to Kosovo. of the proposed operation. It is envisaged • S/2007/168 and Add. 1 (26 March Useful Additional Sources that both the Security Council and the AU 2007) was the letter transmitting Kosovo: No Good Alternatives to the PSC establish the hybrid operation, with a Ahtisaari’s report on Kosovo’s future Ahtisaari Plan, International Crisis Group, mandate to: status and the Comprehensive Europe Report No.182, 14 May 2007 n contribute to security for humanitarian Proposal for the Kosovo Status assistance; Settlement. n contribute to protection of civilians under • S/2007/130 (6 March 2007) was Darfur/Sudan imminent threat and prevention of attacks the letter reporting on the operations against civilians; of the Kosovo Force from 1 to 31 Expected Council Action n monitor and verify the implementation of December 2006. Darfur is likely to keep the Council extremely existing and future agreements; busy in June with: Selected Reports n assist the political process to ensure that n discussions on AU-UN proposals for a • S/2007/256 (4 May 2007) was the it is inclusive; hybrid operation and Sudan’s position; report of the Security Council on the n contribute to the promotion of human n a Council mission to Africa, including Kosovo mission. rights and the rule of law; and Addis Ababa and Accra (Sudan has • S/2007/134 (9 March 2007) was the n monitor and report on the situation along invited the mission to visit Khartoum); latest report of the Secretary-General the borders with Chad and the Central n an interim report by the sanctions Panel on UNMIK. African Republic (CAR). of Experts; and n a briefing by the International Criminal Other Relevant Facts To implement the mandate, its tasks would Court (ICC) Chief Prosecutor Luis include: Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for Moreno-Ocampo. n actively providing security and robust the Future Status Process patrolling; It is unclear how discussions will progress Martti Ahtisaari (Finland) n monitoring violations of agreements and on the hybrid operation proposal. A new Janjaweed disarmament; Special Representative of the Council resolution seems likely. Tolerance Secretary-General n ensuring the complementary implemen- for further delays or obstruction from Sudan tation of all peace agreements in Sudan; Joachim Rucker (Germany) seems to be diminishing. In particular, the n capacity-building, monitoring and sup- UNMIK US on 29 May tightened domestic financial porting law enforcement; and measures against Sudan and will want to • Size of UNMIK mission: 483 interna- n assisting all stakeholders, especially in sponsor wider measures in the Council if tional, 1967 national, 142 UN efforts to transfer federal resources to the there is not rapid progress. volunteers as of 30 March Darfur states, and implement reconstruc- • Size of OSCE mission: 1300 staff (310 tion plans and agreements on land use and compensation issues.

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org  The report said clarity is needed on com- Libya hosted a conference in late April with process, constitute a threat to stability in mand and control by troop and police Sudan, AU and UN envoys Salim A. Salim Darfur and the region, commit violations contributors as well as UN financial bodies and Jan Eliasson, and representatives from of international humanitarian or human and that unity “of UN command and con- the UN, the AU, permanent Council mem- rights law or other atrocities, violate the trol…would be required given the Security bers, the Arab League, Chad, Eritrea, Egypt, [arms embargo], or are responsible for Council’s primary responsibility for authoris- the EU, Canada, the Netherlands and Nor- offensive military overflights” pursuant to ing, and the UN’s direct responsibility for way. The conference reached an important resolution 1591. implementing the mandate.” consensus including the need for conver- Available peacekeeping options include: gence of all peace initiatives under the The military component, focusing on pro- n authorising the hybrid operation as rec- AU-UN lead. tection, liaison, monitoring and verification, ommended in the AU-UN report. (given would need to be sufficiently robust to deter Eliasson and Salim are preparing a detailed the need for funding commitment from violence, pre-emptively with sufficient capa- political process roadmap. This would require the Fifth Committee, and the need for bilities to deal with significant logistical an end to violence, a strengthened cease- Chapter VII for the proposed mission’s challenges. fire supported by effective peacekeeping, protection mandate, a new resolution and improvements in the humanitarian seems necessary); While a military concept of operations is still situation. It would comprise three phases. n delaying a decision until firm agreement being finalised, two options were presented n Phase 1 (ongoing): convergence of vari- from Sudan is obtained; in addition to the units deployed under the ous peace initiatives, strengthening of n actively engaging Sudan to consent to heavy support package: the mediation team and consultations. the operation; and n the first calls for 19,055 troops, 120 liai- The Sudan People’s Liberation Move- n encouraging regional players to support son officers, 240 observers and significant ment is currently facilitating a common the hybrid operation. air assets; and rebel negotiating position, but efforts n the second, more dependent on the avail- The sanctions option is also likely to loom in have reportedly been hampered by gov- ability of rapid reaction capabilities and the background as the heavy support pack- ernment aerial bombardments. more air assets, calls for 17,065 troops. age is implemented and discussions on the n Phase 2: preparations for negotiations, The report notes that this option would AU-UN proposals develop. including a mediation strategy, including have less capacity to provide security format, participation, and venue as well Key Issues and would be more vulnerable to weather as upholding the ceasefire. The key issues are ensuring that: conditions. n Phase 3: negotiations. n a peace process in Darfur is re-established; Police would focus on training, capacity- n the phased approach already agreed by On 27 April, the ICC issued arrest warrants building and law enforcement reform, all parties is implemented and Sudan in connection with the case against former protection and monitoring in camps, requir- honours its commitments; Sudanese interior minister Ahmed Haroun ing 3,772 officers and 19 formed police n humanitarian access improves, and vio- and Janjaweed commander Ali Muhammad units (about 2,375 police). lence and attacks against civilians cease; Ali Abd-al-Rahman. ICC Chief Prosecutor n the regional dimension does not present Priority would be given to African personnel Moreno-Ocampo also signalled a second problems; and in force and police generation. The final list wave of investigations on the border with n AMIS has sufficient resources until the of contributors would be agreed by the UN Chad and the CAR. hybrid operation is deployed. and the AU in consultation with Sudan. Financial management and oversight Related Developments in the Related issues are: Human Rights Council mechanisms consistent with UN regula- n political process: supporting the efforts tions would be put in place, and a The human rights expert group on Darfur of Salim and Eliasson, including securing Secretary-General’s recommendation on met with Sudanese government officials a comprehensive ceasefire. There are costs to the General Assembly would follow on 24 May to discuss practical ways to several major questions, including rebel the Security Council’s establishment of the improve the human rights situation in unity, negotiation modalities (how much operation. Darfur. There seems to have been only the failed Darfur Peace Agreement should limited agreement on future steps. The be reopened, participation, and resources On 25 May, the Council adopted a state- group is expected to present its report for mediation), and the relationship with ment welcoming the AU-UN report and during the June session of the Human the north-south Comprehensive Peace calling for it to be considered and taken for- Rights Council. Agreement; ward immediately. n hybrid operation: how best to address Force-generation consultations are under- Options AU-UN recommendations and ensure way for the heavy support package with On the peace process, an option is for the compliance by Sudan. Time is critical. significant challenges, including the need Council to intensify its support for the efforts Negotiations are likely to be difficult, for Sudanese agreement on land and water- of Salim and Eliasson. especially on command and control, size, drilling in Darfur, reconfiguring and robustness, protection of civilians and strengthening AMIS, and funds for new Should progress prove elusive, another involvement in key issues such as law AMIS facilities and camps. Full deployment option is threatening targeted sanctions enforcement and governance. Other key may take up to six months. against all those who “impede the peace aspects are full implementation of the

 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org support packages ahead of the opera- called for it to be considered and tion; and funding commitment by the taken forward immediately. General Assembly’s Fifth Committee. • S/PRST/2006/55 (19 December 2006) SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT endorsed the phased approach. Generating a substantial number of troops Monthly and police will be a significant issue. Costs Selected Secretary-General’s Reports JUNE 2007 are likely to be huge. The heavy support • S/2007/213 (17 April 2007) was the FORECAST package requires 2,250 troops and 675 latest quarterly report on Sudan. • Strength as of 23 May 2007: 6,143 police, while the hybrid operation involves • S/2007/104 (23 February 2007) was military and 1,360 police at least 17,065 troops and 6,147 police, par- the latest monthly report on Darfur • Key troop contributors: Nigeria, ticularly if current AMIS troops are not at press time. Rwanda and Senegal re-hatted. AMIS involves two battalions Other AMIS: Duration (1,600 troops). • S/2007/284 (15 May 2007) was a 25 May 2004 to present; mandate expires All combined, the hybrid operation would Sudanese letter following up on 1 July 2007 be the largest UN operation after UNPRO- existing commitments to increase FOR in the former Yugoslavia and UNOSOM humanitarian access. II in Somalia in the 1990s and possibly the • S/2007/251 (1 May 2007) was a most expensive operation ever authorised. Libyan letter with the Tripoli consensus. Chad/Central African This is compounded by the substantial • S/2007/212 (17 April 2007) was Republic practical challenges in implementing a Council letter in response to an unprecedented hybrid peacekeeping Sudan’s agreement to the heavy Expected Council Action concept. support package. Members expect the results of the Secretar- • A/HRC/4/L.7/Rev.2 (30 March 2007) iat’s consultations with Chad seeking Council and Wider Dynamics was the recent Human Rights Council consent to deploy a proposed UN peace- Prior to the release of the report, however, resolution on Darfur. keeping operation in eastern Chad and in permanent members appear increasingly • A/HRC/4/80 (9 March 2007) was the the Central African Republic (CAR). At press unified. There was agreement on the text report of the Human Rights Council’s time, a briefing by Assistant Secretary- of a demarche to Sudan on the need to high-level mission to Darfur. General Hédi Annabi on progress with uphold commitments to the phased consultations had been scheduled for 31 approach as agreed in November 2006. Other Relevant Facts May. It is unclear whether agreement will be China recently appointed a special envoy reached. It is possible that there will be fur- responsible for Darfur. Joint AU-UN Special Representative ther consultations in June. for Darfur At press time, divisions remained on how to Rodolphe Adada (Congo) The issue may also arise during the Council respond to Khartoum’s invitation to the mission in June to the AU headquarters in Special Envoy of the Secretary-General Council mission. Some prefer a more cau- Addis Ababa and Accra (given Ghana’s AU tious approach, with acceptance dependent Jan Eliasson (Sweden) chairmanship). on whether Sudan shows unequivocal UNMIS: Special Representative of signs of cooperation on the heavy support the Secretary-General In late June, the regular report of the Secretary-General on the UN Peace- package and the hybrid operation. Vacant building Support Office in the CAR There is also greater willingness to focus UNMIS: Size, Composition and Cost (BONUCA) is due and the mandate of the on the political process, particularly with • Maximum authorised strength: up to Central African Economic and Monetary increased prospects of a formal contact group 27,300 military and 6,015 police Community’s military operation deployed using the format of the Tripoli conference. • Strength as of 30 April 2007: 9,398 in the CAR (FOMUC) expires. military and 613 police UN Documents • Key troop contributors: Bangladesh, Key Recent Developments The humanitarian crisis in Chad and the Selected Security Council Resolutions China, Egypt, India, Kenya and CAR continues to be acute, with a continu- Pakistan • S/RES/1755 (30 April 2007) extended ing flood of refugees and internally • Cost: 1 July 2006-30 June 2007 UNMIS until 31 October 2007. displaced persons. The situation is com- $1,126.30 million (excludes Darfur) • S/RES/1706 (31 August 2006) set a pounded by large shortfalls in funding for mandate for UNMIS in Darfur. UNMIS: Duration humanitarian assistance. In Chad alone, • S/RES/1591 (29 March 2005) 24 March 2005 to present; mandate only about a third of the appeals for funding and 1556 (30 July 2004) imposed expires 31 October 2007. seem to have been met. Chad has 140,000 sanctions in Darfur. AU Special Envoy internally displaced plus 235,000 Darfurian • S/RES/1590 (24 March 2005) and 46,000 CAR refugees. In the CAR, there Salim A. Salim established UNMIS. are 300,000 displaced. AMIS: Size and Composition Selected Presidential Statements

• Total authorised strength: about A Secretariat team is now in Chad to • S/PRST/2007/15 (25 May 2007) consult with the government on the 10,000 military and 1,500 police welcomed the AU-UN report and Secretary-General’s proposals for UN

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org  peacekeeping in eastern Chad. The team An AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) n whether to authorise deployment in the is expected to clarify the rationale and mission visited Sudan, Chad and the CAR CAR first; the need for a military component as a on 21-29 May. The mission, headed by n whether constructive support from security backup for the proposed mission’s Nigeria, was expected to assess the regional players for UN peacekeeping in police component which will be tasked situation in the region and report back to Chad and Darfur, particularly from Libya, with providing security for camps of the PSC with recommendations. Sudan and Eritrea can be garnered; and displaced persons and refugees. It is n wider questions that Sudan and Chad’s International Criminal Court (ICC) Chief possible that some UN personnel will position regarding consent for UN opera- Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo announced continue in N’Djamena as the nucleus of tions in the region may pose. on 22 May that he would start investigations an advance UN mission, which would pave into crimes committed in the CAR. Investi- A major related issue, as progress contin- the way for the deployment of the proposed gations will cover the 2002-2003 conflict in ues with peacekeeping in Darfur, is that UN operation, if ultimately approved. which the government of Ange-Félix Patassé there may not be resources for a UN mis- It seems earlier proposals that the mission was overthrown by a rebel movement led sion in Chad and the CAR. be deployed along the border are now by current president François Bozizé. Council and Wider Dynamics in abeyance. Moreno-Ocampo also signalled that Council members seem to prefer the wait- investigations would also include crimes With Saudi Arabia’s facilitation, Sudan and and-see approach, deferring to the committed since the end of 2005. The Chad in early May signed yet another agree- Secretariat consultations with Chad for the decision followed a referral by the CAR ment. Both pledged to respect each other’s time being. There is nonetheless strong government of the situation to the ICC in sovereignty; to prevent the use of their interest by the US, the UK and France in December 2004. respective territories by armed groups; and closely monitoring developments. refuse support for such groups. In addition, Options Members are aware that Chad’s position both parties seemingly committed to: Maintaining the wait-and-see approach will be influenced by the views of regional n implement the February 2006 Tripoli continues to be the most likely option, at players, in particular Libya and Sudan. Agreement and a joint military commis- least until the results of consultations Some members seem to be informally sion based in Tripoli to report on border between Chad and the Secretariat are encouraging neighbours to support the violations; known. Additional options include: proposed UN force. n support AU political and security efforts n becoming more actively involved in the to stabilise Darfur and the border areas issue of political reconciliation in Chad UN Documents through the implementation of the Darfur by encouraging the Secretary-General Peace Agreement; and to send a UN Department of Political Selected Security Council Resolution n adhere to working with AU and UN to end Affairs mission, or by perhaps extending • S/RES/1706 (31 August 2006) conflict in Darfur and eastern Chad. the June Council mission to include mandated a multidimensional UN N’Djamena, or sending a smaller “side” presence in Chad and the CAR and High-level contacts on the situation in the mission (perhaps headed by the chair of requested recommendations. region ensued, including talks between the Council’s Working Group on Peace- Egypt and Sudan and a visit to Libya by the Selected Presidential Statements keeping or of the Ad Hoc Working Group presidents of Egypt and Chad on 8 May. • S/PRST/2007/2 (16 January 2007) on Conflict Prevention and Resolution in After the meeting, Libyan leader Muammar requested further recommendations Africa); Qadhafi reportedly criticised the Saudi- on peacekeeping in Chad and the n highlighting the options for cooperation brokered deal (making the point that it CAR and on an advance mission. between the Tripoli Agreement mecha- largely only repeats previous Libyan- • S/PRST/2006/47 (22 November 2006) nisms and the UN; and brokered agreements). The Sudanese renewed BONUCA. n authorising early deployment in the CAR. parliament ratified a separate agreement on Selected Secretary-General’s Reports economic cooperation with Chad in mid- Key Issues • S/2007/97 (23 February 2007) was May. There are reports that Chadian The key issue is how best to encourage the report on UN peacekeeping in President Idriss Deby may visit Sudan in regional stability and contain the conflict in Chad and the CAR. early June. Darfur. The immediate issue is whether to • S/2006/1034 (28 December 2006) proceed toward a UN operation in Chad Despite the series of agreements brokered was the latest report on BONUCA. and the CAR, which in turn raises a number by regional players since February 2006 to • S/2006/1019 (22 December 2006) of open questions, including: dissipate border tensions, scepticism was the first report on UN peacekeep- n how to address Chad’s reluctance; remains because of the absence of improve- ing in Chad and the CAR. n the absence of any sort of meaningful ments on the ground and the failure of political reconciliation process; Other previous agreements. The Chadian rebel n whether concessions on the military • S/2007/201 (11 April 2007) was the group Union of Forces for Democracy and component’s size and deployment can Sudanese letter on certain cross- Development (UFDD) says it will continue be considered, and how far the Council is border attacks. its insurgency against Deby. prepared to go without putting UN • S/PV.5655 (4 April 2007) was the personnel at unnecessary risk; record of Under Secretary-General

 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org John Holmes’ latest briefing. noted that all parliamentary leaders have • S/2007/135 (7 March 2007) was a supported the tribunal. (However, clearly letter from Libya forwarding the some were opposed to it being imposed by SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT Chad-Sudan statement on re- the Security Council.) Monthly energising the Tripoli Agreement. On 14 May Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad • S/2006/103 (14 February 2006) was JUNE 2007 Siniora sent a letter to the Secretary-Gen- FORECAST the Chad-Sudan Tripoli Agreement. eral requesting that the Council take binding n there was no progress on disbanding Other Relevant Facts action to establish the tribunal. The next and disarming militias; and day, the Secretary-General said all diplo- n media speculation that Lebanese groups CAR: Special Representative of matic efforts had been exhausted and that were acquiring weapons which could the Secretary-General the Council should “take necessary actually accelerate a domestic arms race. Lamine Cissé (Senegal) action.” The Council was to hold consultations on BONUCA: Size and Composition On 15 May Lebanon’s pro-Syrian president, this report before the end of May and at time Strength as of 30 September 2006: Émile Lahoud, reiterated what he had of writing was expected to adopt a presi- 19 internationals, five military, six police already said in a similar letter to the dential statement. BONUCA: Duration Secretary-General on 5 February, that approval of the tribunal by the Council In Lebanon, the presidential election set for 15 February 2000 to present; mandate 25 September has become a focus of atten- expires 31 December 2007 would override Lebanese constitutional mechanisms and would contribute to tion. The six-year term of President Lahoud FOMUC: Size and Composition further destabilising Lebanon. ended in September 2004 but was renewed • Current strength: 380 troops without election for three years under • Contributors: Gabon, Republic of The Syrian government said that the tribu- Syrian pressure. Congo and Chad nal should enter into force only with the consent of all Lebanese parties. Since 20 May, the Lebanese army has FOMUC: Duration been clashing with militants from Fatah October 2002 to present; mandate The Council adopted on 30 May a resolu- al-Islam, a pro-Syrian Islamist group around expires 30 June 2007 tion sponsored by Belgium, Italy, France, the Palestinian refugee camp Nahr al-Bared Slovakia, the UK and the US under Chapter near Tripoli, after the militants allegedly VII bringing into force on 10 June the attacked army posts at the camp. Thou- special tribunal to try, under Lebanese sands of refugees fled the fighting, many Lebanon criminal law, the alleged murderers of civilians were killed and humanitarian former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri assistance was hampered by shellings. The Expected Council Action and others. The resolution applied the terms Council adopted a press statement on In June, recommendations from the Secre- of the agreement signed between the UN 23 May condemning the attacks by the tary-General on improved monitoring of the and Lebanon, but not ratified due to the militants on the Lebanese Armed Forces, Syria-Lebanon border and a report on parliamentary impasse in Beirut. There were saying they constitute “an unacceptable implementation of resolution 1701 are five abstentions (China, Indonesia, Qatar, attack on Lebanon’s stability, security and expected to be discussed. In addition, the Russia and South Africa). sovereignty”. The Council also underlined issue of Sheb’a Farms is likely to be high on the need to assist the Palestinian refugees. the agenda. Recommendations are The fifth report on implementation of resolu- expected in the 1701 report, together with a tion 1559, issued on 7 May, noted that: Options geographical definition of the area. The n there was no progress in the establish- The Council could decide to combine ele- Lebanon Independent Border Assessment ment of full diplomatic relations between ments relating to the 1559, 1701 and LIBAT Team (LIBAT) was delayed, and it is possi- Syria and Lebanon; reports into one single decision, or could ble that as a result consultations on this n Syrian President Bashar al-Assad agreed address them separately, depending on issue will need to be deferred until July. to reactivate the Border Committee to when the individual reports are available. delineate the border with Lebanon, but Key Recent Developments demarcation in the Sheb’a Farms area On Sheb’a Farms, action will depend in part In May the Lebanese parliament remained would only follow an Israeli withdrawal on whether the Secretary-General actually deadlocked over ratification of the agree- from the Golan Heights; provides a geographical definition of the ment for the special tribunal. n Israeli overflights continued in violation of area as well as recommendations on the political and legal options. Under Secretary-General for Legal Affairs Lebanese sovereignty, as well as Israel’s n The Council can adopt a soft approach Nicolas Michel briefed the Council on 2 May presence in the Ghajar village; and request the Secretary-General to after his visit to Lebanon. His assessment n there were still detailed and substantial provide details on the next steps, while was that a political solution was unlikely, reports from Israel and other states of urging Syria to finalise an agreement with and that the UN should consider other regular illegal transfers of arms across Lebanon bilaterally. Or the Council could options since several suspects are in deten- the Syrian-Lebanese border; adopt a more proactive approach which tion awaiting trial and further delays were n there was a growing threat from extremist could consist of endorsing the Lebanese detrimental to the rule of law and the effi- Islamist groups to the UN presence in government’s seven-point plan and cacy of the current investigation. He also Lebanon;

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org  perhaps placing Sheb’a Farms under withdraw from the Farms, most probably in UN Documents interim UN jurisdiction. exchange for security guarantees (and n If more time is needed to complete the probably involving UNIFIL’s presence). Selected Security Council Resolutions cartographical work, the Council could At this stage, the issue for the Council • S/RES/1757 (30 May 2007) estab- note the progress achieved, invite all is whether it is ready to encourage the lished the Tribunal under Chapter VII. parties to cooperate with the cartogra- Secretary-General to explore such options. • S/RES/1701 (11 August 2006) called pher, and set a target date for completion for a cessation of hostilities between Cross border weapons transfers are still a of work. Israel and Hezbollah and authorised a major issue. Disarmament of militias as reinforcement of UNIFIL. On the Syria/Lebanon border, the Council envisaged in resolution 1701 would most • S/RES/1664 (29 March 2006) could adopt LIBAT’s recommendations on probably end the alleged arms race, but requested negotiation with Lebanon measures and assistance strategies aimed it seems to be related to progress in the on a tribunal of international character. at enhancing border monitoring. A call for inter-Lebanese political process. • S/RES/1559 (2 September 2004) more bilateral assistance to the Lebanese Abducted Israeli Soldiers: This remains urged all foreign forces to withdraw is a likely option. A further option, in light of an important issue because their release from Lebanon and all militias to be the increasing arms race in Lebanon, could might help remove one of Israel’s justifica- disarmed. It supported the extension be to empower the 1636 Sanctions tions for remaining in Sheb’a Farms and for of the Government of Lebanon’s Committee to play a role, perhaps assisted continuing violations of Lebanese airspace. control over all Lebanese territory and by an expert panel, to help verify issues a free and fair electoral process. regarding movements of arms across the Border Control: The issue is now to pro- Selected Presidential Statement Syrian-Lebanese border. vide technical assistance to the Lebanese army stationed along the border with Syria • S/PRST/2007/12 (17 April 2007) A related—and balancing option—would to enhance border security. Without evi- requested a Syrian-Lebanese border be to take action regarding Israeli violations dence of weapons transfers, it remains assessment mission. of Lebanese airspace or even call on Israel difficult for the Council to adopt additional to stop them. Selected Secretary-General’s Reports measures reinforcing the embargo. • S/2007/262 (7 May 2007) was the Finally, in order to help keep the momentum Council Dynamics latest report on resolution 1559. on the 1559 and 1701 processes, the Disagreements arose during May on the • S/2007/147 (14 March 2007) was the Council could reinvigorate the Secretary- issue of the tribunal. Although there was latest report on resolution 1701. General’s role, especially on the long-term consensus on the desirability of the entry • S/2006/893 (15 November 2006) and peace process and the issue of the into force of the tribunal, some members— Add.1 (21 November 2006) was the abducted Israeli prisoners. China, Congo, Ghana, Indonesia, Russia, report on the negotiations between Key Issues Qatar and South Africa—were concerned Lebanon and the UN on the tribunal, A critical issue is how to promote a return to that imposing it via the Council may be enclosing the tribunal’s statute. a consensual political framework, reflected counter-productive and seemed to prefer to Selected Letters in the 1989 Taif Agreements that ended give the diplomatic option another chance. • S/2007/286 (16 May 2007) was the Lebanon’s civil war. The inclusion of a provision in the Chapter VII letter from President Lahoud opposing resolution allowing some extra time before A related issue is whether the Council can the involvement of the Security Coun- the tribunal enters into force (a so called salvage the political process initiated by cil in Lebanese internal affairs with the “sunrise clause”) seems to have helped to resolution 1701, essentially by providing establishment of the tribunal under reduce these concerns somewhat. strategic guidance to the parties and to the Chapter VII. UN Secretariat to remain engaged on all The P3 (France, UK and the US) remained • S/2007/281 (15 May 2007) was Lebanese issues. committed to supporting the Lebanese the letter from Siniora requesting a government. They accepted Prime Minister binding action by the Council to Sheb’a Farms: It is not clear yet whether Siniora’s judgement—and that of the establish the tribunal. the Secretary-General will provide in June a Secretary-General—that all diplomatic • S/2007/278 (14 May 2007) was a letter detailed geographical definition of the area. options had been exhausted. They also from Lebanon on Israeli acts of Further cartographical work may be neces- asserted that a continuation of the dead- aggression during March. sary. If a definition is provided, a logical lock would have challenged the credibility issue is whether to engage with Lebanon, of the Council and actually exacerbated Other Relevant Facts Syria and Israel with a view of achieving at tensions in Lebanon. Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for least provisionally agreed demarcation and Implementation of Resolution 1559 implementing Siniora’s seven-point plan. France remains closely engaged on the Terje Røed-Larsen (Norway) An issue for Lebanon is that it may have to issue of Sheb’a Farms as a cornerstone of agree to defer actual control over the Farms resolution 1701. The US seems to take the Secretary-General’s Special Coordinator in the immediate future. An issue for Syria view that any progress on Sheb’a Farms for Lebanon would be to accept solving the Sheb’a needs to be accompanied with progress on Geir O. Pedersen (Norway) Farms issue independently from the rest of disarmament. In addition, the US may be UNIFIL Force Commander the Golan. For Israel, the issue would be to unwilling to press Israel to withdraw. Major-General Claudio Graziano (Italy)

10 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org Size and Composition of UNIFIL ress on other tracks in the Middle East peace process.” • Authorised: 15,000 troops • Current (as of 15 March 2007): 12,764 After the 2006 Lebanon war, President SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT military personnel, including 176 staff Bashar Al-Assad signalled Syria’s readi- Monthly officers, 10,828 troops and 1,474 ness to resume the peace negotiations with JUNE 2007 maritime task force Israel which were interrupted in 2000. Israeli FORECAST • Troop-contributing countries: Bel- Prime Minister Ehud Olmert rejected the for a cessation of hostilities between gium, China, Cyprus, Denmark, offer because of Syria’s ongoing support of Hezbollah and Israel and authorised Finland, France, Germany, Ghana, “terrorist groups”. a reinforcement of UNIFIL. Greece, Guatemala, Hungary, India, • S/RES/1680 (17 May 2006) encour- Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Republic On 3 May, US Secretary of State Condo- leezza Rice met Syrian Foreign Minister aged Syria to respond positively to the of Korea, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Lebanese request to delineate their Nepal, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Walid Muallem during a conference on Iraq. This was the first high-level meeting common border and called for further Portugal, Qatar, Slovenia, Spain, efforts to disarm Hezbollah and to Sweden, Tanzania and Turkey between the US and Syria since January 2005. It is unclear whether this may lead to restore Lebanon’s control over all Cost (approved budget) some change in US relations with Syria. Lebanese territory. 1 July 2006 – 31 March 2007: $350.87 • S/RES/1559 (2 September 2004) million Options urged Syria’s withdrawal from The most likely option is a further repetition Lebanon and the disarmament of Useful Additional Sources of the now formulaic renewal of the UNDOF all militias. n mandate. Fatah al-Islam Backgrounder, Rebecca Selected Presidential Statements Bloom, Council on Foreign Relations, 22 The Council has yet to discuss the impact • S/PRST/2007/12 (17 April 2007) noted May 2007 on UNDOF if there is a new border demar- progress on the issue of Sheb’a cation in the Sheb’a Farms region, located Farms. Golan Heights (UNDOF) in the Golan. If the Secretary-General’s • S/PRST/2006/54 (15 December 2006) report providing a geographical definition was the last statement following the Expected Council Action of the Farms finally appears in June, as cur- renewal of UNDOF. In June, the Council is expected to continue rently planned, an option may be for the • S/PRST/2006/51 (12 December 2006) its usual practice and extend for six months Council to request a report on how UNDOF reiterated the importance of achieving the mandate of the UN Disengagement would be affected by new borders. a just, comprehensive, and lasting Observer Force (UNDOF) in the Golan peace in the Middle East, based on Key Issues Heights. It expires on 30 June. In renewing resolutions 242 and 338. One possible issue is the border demarca- the mandate, the Council traditionally tion in the Sheb’a Farms area, as the Selected Secretary-General’s Reports calls for implementation of resolution 338 Council has repeatedly asked for (in • S/2007/262 (7 May 2007) was the of 22 October 1973, which refers to resolu- resolutions 1559, 1680 and 1701). UNDOF’s latest 1559 report. tion 242 of 22 November 1967 calling for area of operations includes the Sheb’a • S/2007/147 (14 March 2007) was the the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Farms. Cartographical work on the border latest 1701 report. occupied territories. is due to be completed in June and this may • S/2006/956 (11 December 2006) was The Council president is expected to issue prompt discussions. the report on the Middle East. a statement that the Middle East will remain • S/2006/938 (4 December 2006) was An issue could arise if the US pursued tense until a comprehensive settlement is the latest UNDOF report. its earlier questioning of the language of reached. Again, this has been the practice the customary presidential statement. If on the renewal of UNDOF since 1976. Sub- Other Relevant Facts this happened it is likely to become a stantive discussion of the underlying issues serious issue; for many Council members UNDOF Force Commander seems unlikely. the resolution and statement are seen as Major-General Wolfgang Jilke (Austria) Key Recent Developments an integral package. Size and Composition of Mission In a report on the Middle East, outgoing UN Council Dynamics (30 April 2007) Secretary-General Kofi Annan on 11 There is wide consensus that UNDOF • 1,043 troops, assisted by some 57 December expressed disappointment that remains useful in the absence of a peace military observers of UNTSO’s there had been no movement in the return agreement between Israel and Syria. Observer Group Golan of the occupied Golan Heights to Syria in • Troop contributors: Austria, Canada, exchange for peace between Syria and UN Documents India, Japan, Nepal, Poland and Israel during his ten years in office. He also Slovakia criticised complacency on the need to Selected Security Council Resolutions Approved Budget resolve this problem as the Golan Heights is • S/RES/1729 (15 December 2006) relatively calm compared with the rest of the renewed UNDOF for six months. 1 July 2006 - 30 June 2007: $39.87 million region. However, he acknowledged that the • S/RES/1701 (11 August 2006) called issue was “intrinsically connected to prog-

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 11 Please visit our December 2005 Forecast The Council on 30 April adopted a presi- 21 May, Under Secretary-General Holmes for a list of documents and historical dential statement that: underlined further concerns, including background. n called on all parties to immediately end disagreements with the TFG on: the hostilities and agree to a comprehen- n the severity of the crisis, as the TFG main- Useful Additional Sources sive ceasefire; tains that only 30,000 to 40,000 have n Restarting Israeli-Syrian Negotiations, n demanded that all parties in Somalia been displaced, as opposed to UN International Crisis Group Report, No. 63, comply fully with international humanitar- reports estimating 365,000; and 10 April 2007 ian law, protect the civilian population, n reports of TFG forces violating interna- and guarantee complete, unhindered tional humanitarian law. (It seems that and secure access for humanitarian the TFG has agreed to an investigation Somalia assistance; and by the UN High Commissioner for n called on the Transitional Federal Institu- Human Rights.) Expected Council Action tions to ensure that the national In late June the Secretary-General is The Sanctions Committee held meetings in reconciliation congress is convened as expected to report on progress with Soma- early May. States cited in the reports of the soon as possible, and is truly representa- lia’s national reconciliation process, Monitoring Group as having violated the tive of all segments of Somali society. including a broad ceasefire. The reconcilia- arms embargo were invited to an exchange tion congress is currently scheduled for As anticipated in our May 2007 Forecast, of views with the Group and Council mem- mid-June, but it is unclear whether it will the presidential statement largely accepted bers. The Committee met Djibouti, Egypt, be held. The report will also discuss the Secretary-General’s recommendation Eritrea, Iran, Libya, Saudi Arabia and Syria. contingency planning for a possible UN that, in light of the open warfare in Mogadi- It seems that all denied having violated peacekeeping mission in Somalia, but shu, the situation was not amenable to a UN the embargo. Council action on that seems unlikely at peacekeeping mission at present. The Options this stage. statement requested the Secretary-General In the absence of improvements with the to instead begin contingency planning for a The Council mission to Africa, also sched- reconciliation process and the security situ- possible UN peacekeeping mission. uled for June, is likely to include visits to ation, options at present include the Accra (in light of Ghana’s current AU chair- Events in May, including the killing of four following. manship) as well as the AU headquarters in AMISOM troops and the partial cancellation n Requesting a strengthening of the UN’s Addis Ababa. Some discussions on Soma- of Under Secretary-General John Holmes’ political involvement in Somalia, possibly lia seem likely. trip after attacks in mid-May, suggest that through establishment of an advance the insurgency is still very active. The for- political mission in Mogadishu. This Key Recent Developments mer leader of the Union of Islamic Courts option could both increase the levels of The situation in Somalia remains extremely (UIC), Sheik Sharif Ahmed, and ousted par- information on the conflict and strengthen volatile. Reports of major displacement and liament speaker Sheik Sharif Hassan Aden important UN leadership in efforts to fos- indiscriminate attacks against civilians have reportedly urged insurgents to con- ter the national reconciliation process. prompted an unusual call from UN human tinue fighting Ethiopian troops. The conflict n Decide that the Council itself should take rights experts on 1 May for respect of in Mogadishu seems to involve clan militias, a more leading role in consulting with key international humanitarian law and for UIC remnants and foreign fighters pitted stakeholders, including regional players, humanitarian access and safe passage against Ethiopian and TFG forces. on progress with the reconciliation pro- for civilians. cess and outcome. This could include a Meanwhile, AMISOM continues to struggle A major offensive by the Transitional Fed- small Council mission to the region, per- with difficulties with troop generation, logis- eral Government (TFG) and Ethiopian haps at the time of the Council’s visit to tics, funding and lack of security. So far, troops to stabilise Mogadishu began in late Africa, composed of two or three elected Uganda has contributed 1,500 troops but April. A ceasefire was subsequently agreed members and perhaps headed by the an estimated 8,000 are needed for AMISOM. between the TFG and the largest clan in chair of the Council’s Working Group on It does not seem likely that troop reinforce- Mogadishu. The TFG then announced that Peacekeeping or of the Ad Hoc Working ments will materialise soon. most of Mogadishu had been secured, Group on Conflict Prevention and Reso- although media reports suggested that In Mogadishu on 11 May, the Special lution in Africa. fighting was ongoing. Representative of the Secretary-General, n Act to support AMISOM by encouraging François Lonseny Fall, met with the TFG to troop pledges, including through consul- At a Council briefing in late April, Ethiopian discuss preparations for the national tations with the AU during the Council Foreign Minister Ato Seyoum Mesfin argued congress and to convey the need for inclu- visit to Addis Ababa. It seems that the that the situation had improved, that two- siveness and a broad cessation of hostilities. AU is already getting ready to request thirds of Ethiopian troops had already a renewal of AMISOM’s mandate after withdrawn, and that the remainder would Lack of access and safety for aid deliveries it expires in August, given that a transfer follow once AMISOM was reinforced. He —seemingly in part due to TFG policies— to a UN operation is unlikely in the further emphasised the need for a political have severely obstructed the provision of near future. solution, especially through an inclusive humanitarian assistance to the majority of and credible national congress. those in need. In a briefing to the Council on

12 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org Key Issues responsibilities to the UN. Other members The key issue seems to be progress with are supportive of Ethiopia’s intervention, national reconciliation thereby creating especially the US. Those members are SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT improved security conditions. Related likely to be more flexible on this issue and Monthly issues include: seem ready to support transition sooner n the degree of inclusiveness in the national rather than later. JUNE 2007FORECAST reconciliation congress and in a future There remains a lack of clarity on how to Somali unity government. Participation in The 1737 Sanctions Committee is also address the difficulties with the national rec- the national congress is expected to be expected to submit a report on its activities, onciliation process. Support for Somali largely clan-based and may exclude followed by a briefing around 21 June. ownership of the process seems at odds independent participation by civil society with the goal of inclusiveness. Interest in Key Recent Developments groups and especially religious groups broader UN (including the Council’s) The EU3+3 (France, Germany, the UK and such as the UIC; involvement in the reconciliation process China, Russia and the US) met in London n the lack of clarity on the upcoming seems mixed. Some are concerned about on 2 May and Berlin on 10 May to determine national conference’s agenda, especially an excessive focus on peacekeeping. There the way forward and prepare a common on power-sharing, and the outcome par- is concern about the TFG and the issue of position ahead of the next IAEA report. They ticularly vis-à-vis the future composition UIC participation. reaffirmed that a negotiated solution was of the TFG; their goal but agreed to start work on a third n the question of balance and impartiality UN Documents resolution imposing additional sanctions if, in the process and whether increased UN as seemed likely, the IAEA would report non participation in and assistance to the Selected Security Council Resolutions compliance. political process is necessary, particularly • S/RES/1744 (20 February 2007) in light of the TFG’s apparent resistance authorised AMISOM. The second round of talks between EU for- to reopening certain aspects of the con- • S/RES/733 (23 January 1992) eign policy chief Javier Solana and Iranian gress, especially regarding inclusiveness; imposed the arms embargo. nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani, scheduled in n how to improve the security situation on Selected Presidential Statement Switzerland in mid-May, was postponed to the ground and encourage Ethiopia’s 31 May in Berlin. The initial round had con- • S/PRST/2007/13 (30 April 2007) withdrawal. This includes the lack of pros- cluded with some hints of possible progress. requested contingency planning pects for a broad ceasefire in addition to However, Larijani announced on 14 May for transition to UN peacekeeping troop and financial contributions to that suspension of uranium enrichment in Somalia. AMISOM. A related issue is the absence would not be negotiated. of mediators to encourage a wide cessa- Latest Secretary-General’s Report On 15 May, ElBaradei told the media that tion of hostilities; and • S/2007/204 (20 April 2007) Iran’s progress in enriching uranium meant n the regional dimension of the situation in Other that it was unrealistic to prevent Iran from Somalia, especially the movement of ref- • S/PV.5677 (21 May 2007) was the gaining nuclear expertise. For him, “the pur- ugees, arms and combatants, and related recent briefing by Under Secretary- pose of suspension—keeping them from violations of the arms embargo. General John Holmes. getting the knowledge—has been over- Council Dynamics • S/2006/913 (21 November 2006) was taken by events.” It would be more useful to Most members agree that the security situ- the latest Monitoring Group report. restrict enrichment short of an industrial ation in Somalia is dire and that considerable scale rather than try to freeze it altogether, progress with the national reconciliation Other Relevant Facts he said. process is needed. Members also seem to Special Representative of the These remarks were sharply criticised by agree that strong international support for Secretary-General the US and its European allies. They said AMISOM is needed so that Ethiopian troops François Lonseny Fall (Guinea) that letting Iran operate a small number of can withdraw soon. Chairman of the Sanctions Committee centrifuges was out of the question. The presidential statement of 30 April seems Dumisani S. Kumalo (South Africa) The 23 May IAEA report on implementation to have crystallised positions, especially of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and about the need for progress with reconcilia- Council resolutions in Iran concluded that: tion and security if there is ever to be a n Iran had not complied with resolutions transfer from AMISOM to a UN operation. Iran 1737 and 1747 requiring suspension of However, some significant divisions remain. Expected Council Action all enrichment-related and reprocessing Most members are very resistant about any The Council is expected to adopt a resolu- activities, including research and devel- transition to a UN peacekeeping mission tion further expanding sanctions against opment, and work on all heavy water- and want to see considerable progress Iran, in light of the 23 May report of related projects; before any decision is reached. Some Afri- the Director-General of the International n Iran was operating eight cascades of 164 can members are strongly concerned with Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Mohammed centrifuges at an underground site in the lack of support for AMISOM and for ElBaradei that Iran had not complied with Natanz, producing fuel suitable for future prospects to transfer peacekeeping resolution 1747. nuclear reactors, and it was in the pro- cess of installing five more; and

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 13 n The IAEA’s ability to monitor Iran’s Council Dynamics • S/RES/1737 (23 December 2006) nuclear programme had deteriorated. The EU3 and the US seem determined to imposed measures against Iran under prepare a third resolution toughening Chapter VII, article 41, of the UN By 16 May, 67 countries had submitted sanctions. They remain convinced this is Charter and expressed its intention to reports to the Sanctions Committee on the best approach. While sanctions have adopt further measures under article steps taken to implement resolution 1737. some impact on Iran’s economy and on the 41 in case of Iranian non-compliance. Some also submitted reports on implement- degree of internal support for the regime, • S/RES/1696 (31 July 2006) demanded ing resolution 1747, although this is not they sense, more importantly, a building that Iran suspend all enrichment- mandatory. groundswell of international opinion gener- related and reprocessing activities In the run-up to the 2010 Review Confer- ated by cohesion within the Council which and expressed its intention to adopt ence of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation is likely to have an impact in Tehran. For measures under article 41 in case of of Nuclear Weapons, the first of three Pre- them, suspending uranium enrichment is Iranian non-compliance. paratory Committee sessions took place in an incontrovertible measure to rebuild Latest IAEA Board Resolution confidence. Consequently, they oppose Vienna from 30 April to 11 May. Participants • GOV/2006/14 (4 February 2006) the ElBaradei alternative because, by defi- considered substantive and procedural underlined the necessary steps that nition, it requires trust in Iran’s good faith. issues to strengthen implementing the NPT. Iran should take to re-establish The new French President Nicolas Sarkozy Germany suggested building a uranium confidence in the peaceful nature of appears more supportive of sanctions enrichment facility run by the IAEA so that its nuclear programme and reported than his predecessor Jacques Chirac. all interested states have access to nuclear the issue to the Security Council. fuel for energy generation, while reducing The EU3+3 will probably wait for the the risk of weapons proliferation. Latest IAEA Report Solana-Larijani meeting and for the G8 • The circulation of the 23 May report Options meeting scheduled for 6-8 June before is currently restricted and will be A third resolution following the logic of tabling a resolution. considered at the IAEA Board of incremental pressure seems to be the main An important challenge will be finding a Directors 11 June meeting. option if the Solana-Larijani meeting fails to balance between a credible increment and Iran Reports to the Preparatory produce positive results. The resolution the need for unanimity. Russia and China Committee for the 2010 Review could: will want more graduated steps. Some Conference of the Parties to the NPT n replace “calls upon” with “decide” in elected members remain sceptical about • NPT/CONF.2010/PC.I/14 (9 May 2007) several provisions; the EU3+3 approach, especially Indonesia was on the establishment of a nuclear- n impose a travel ban on Iranian officials and South Africa who, while concerned weapon-free zone in the Middle East. involved in the nuclear programme; about Iran’s behaviour, believe that negotia- • NPT/CONF.2010/PC.I/13 (9 May 2007) n include additional names in the list of tions are the best way to solve the crisis, was on implementation of article VI of people and entities subject to asset and that preconditions should be avoided. the NPT. freeze; n toughen current financial sanctions Underlying Problems Useful Additional Sources through restricting or even banning Tensions between the US and Iran are n Iran: Another Iranian-American Scholar export credits to Iran; increasing with more arrests and detentions Detained—Crackdown Against Iranian n ban certain arms sales to Iran; and of Iranian-American scholars in Iran. The Civil Society Intensifies, Human Rights n request the IAEA Director-General to US moved two aircraft carriers and seven Watch, 24 May 2007 report to the Council again within other ships into the Persian Gulf in a show n Iran’s Nuclear Programme: Can Diplomacy sixty days. of force. Succeed?, Gary Samore and Maurice R. Greenberg, International Institute for A further option for the Council is to delay The financial sector seems to be increas- Strategic Studies, Volume 13, Issue 3, action if Solana and Larijani make some ingly reluctant to do business with Iran April 2007 progress in a positive direction. because of restrictions on trade of prolifera- tion sensitive and ballistic equipment Key Issues stipulated in resolution 1737, the call upon A key issue is how much longer the incre- states and international institutions not to Côte d’Ivoire mental pressure approach will be viable, enter into new commitments for grants, and whether it will convince Iran to suspend Expected Cou ncil Action financial assistance and loans to Iran stipu- enrichment. For many—including the US The Council plans to visit Côte d’Ivoire on lated in resolution 1747 and bilateral and the Europeans—the core issue remains 19 June as part of a regional trip for relation- initiatives from the EU and the US. the lack of confidence in the peaceful nature ship-building with regional organisations, in of Iran’s nuclear programme. particular the African Union. In late June the Selected Documents Council is expected to renew the mandate Members are mindful, though, of the equally Security Council Resolutions of the UN Operation in Côte d’Ivoire (UNOCI) important issue of keeping the doors of • S/RES/1747 (24 March 2007) imposed which expires on 30 June. Some mandate negotiation open even if the next Solana- additional measures against Iran and adjustment in light of the Ouagadougou Larijani meeting fails. reinforced the existing ones. Agreement and recent recommendations from the Secretary-General are expected.

14 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org The Council is also expecting recommen- toral mandate to include coordination of dations from the African Union on the future international observers; of the International Working Group (IWG). n continue to promote and protect human SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT rights and assist the government in the The next report of the Sanctions Commit- Monthly formulation and implementation of a tee’s Group of Experts is due in early June. national human rights action plan; and JUNE 2007 The Group’s mandate expires on 15 June. FORECAST n be extended for an additional six months The Council is expected to adopt a resolu- with a troop-level review process in Sep- the import of light weapons; or tion renewing it for six months. The tember in light of progress toward DDR n require that conditions and deadlines be Committee may also consider an Ivorian and administration redeployment. met before granting the authorisation. request for an exemption to the arms embargo to allow the government to import The report also recommended that the UN Key Issues light arms. elections certification role be given to the The main issue is how to transform current Secretary-General’s Special Representa- UN tasks established in resolutions 1721 Key Recent Developments tive instead of the High Representative for and 1739 to fit into a peace consolidation The Secretary-General’s report on the future the Elections, while not replacing the certifi- framework based on the Ouagadougou UN role in Côte d’Ivoire in light of the Oua- cation prerogatives of national institutions. Agreement. (See our December 2006 gadougou Agreement was published on 14 Forecast for details of the 1721 mandate May. The report noted that implementation The report was welcomed by both parties in and our 2 April Update on the Ouagadou- of the agreement started on schedule with Côte d’Ivoire. Council consultations were gou Agreement.) establishment of the integrated command held on 18 May, following a briefing by Dji- centre, formation of a new government, brill Bassolé, Minister for National Security Although there is considerable support for issuing an ordinance granting amnesty for of Burkina Faso, on behalf of the peace pro- the Secretary-General’s recommendations, national security crimes committed since cess facilitator, President Blaise Compaoré the main challenge is how to incorporate September 2000, lifting of the zone of confi- of Burkina Faso. He attributed the delays in them into the upcoming resolution. The role dence and deployment of mixed police April to technical challenges. of UNOCI and that of the Secretary-Gener- units in the buffer zone. However, the 23 al’s Special Representative now has to be Government militias started to disarm on 17 April deadline for dismantling militias, rede- balanced to reflect the parties’ greater own- May. Three collection sites were set up in ploying state officials in the country and ership of the peace process, but remain the west and Ivorian President Laurent launching mobile court hearings for national sufficiently involved at all stages to ensure Gbagbo said that around 1,000 weapons identification was missed. that peace and security are maintained and had already been collected. Also in April the that free and fair elections will be conducted The report did note the determination of the World Bank promised $100 million for disar- in a timely manner. Related issues concern- parties to implement the Ouagadougou mament of ex-combatants. ing detailed aspects of the UNOCI mandate Agreement, resulting in a more relaxed In late May, the Secretary-General received covering human rights and protection of political atmosphere and a significant from the Burkina Faso facilitator a request civilians may also arise. However, it seems decrease in hate speeches in the media. In to exempt light weapons from the Côte unlikely that these would be changed. light of this positive political security climate, d’Ivoire arms embargo. At press time, the it suggested that there was no longer a A connected and major issue is the role of request had not yet been submitted to the need for UNOCI reinforcements as origi- the UN in the electoral process. Because Sanctions Committee or the Security Council. nally requested by rebel Forces nouvelles the High Representative for the Elections The Ivorian government had already leader Guillaume Soro to ensure security of was a substitute for Ivorian authorities on requested an exemption in December but it key political leaders. electoral matters, the Secretary-General had not been approved. recommended that the post be abolished The Secretary-General also reported that Options and that the certification responsibility for national stakeholders had stressed that The Council will most likely renew the all stages of the electoral process be continued UN assistance for the peace pro- UNOCI mandate for six months. As part of transferred to his Special Representative. cess was essential. He recommended that this renewal, it has the following options: This was the most divisive issue between UNOCI: n strictly follow the Secretary-General’s the parties. n support all tasks of the integrated com- recommendations regarding the force’s mand centre, including disarmament, Another issue is whether the IWG, previ- mandate; demobilisation, and reintegration (DDR), ously monitoring the peace process at the n use broader language allowing room for the voter identification process and secu- local level, should be disbanded. interpretation, thereby providing flexibility; rity-sector reform; n reaffirm the Ouagadougou timetable but At press time the Council is discussing the n reinforce its presence in the west; not specify an elections deadline; terms of reference for its visit. The issue n support the restoration of state adminis- n request the Secretary-General to report here is to signal to Côte d’Ivoire that the tration in the country; to the Council by 30 September for a Council is ready to support its efforts. n support the identification and registration review of the UNOCI troop level; Because a draft resolution may be ready of voters and the electoral processes, n endorse the African Union’s recommen- beforehand, the visit may also be an occa- especially through security and technical dations on the IWG; sion to incorporate Ivorian concerns into assistance, and adjust its current elec- n agree to grant a special authorisation for the draft.

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 15 Another important issue is the request for was dismantled. It is a mountainous and Cyprus an arms embargo exemption for light weap- heavily forested region where gangs of ons for law and order purposes. No official armed bandits thrive. Expected Council Action request from Côte d’Ivoire has been The Secretary-General’s next report on received yet. But the nature of the request— Selected UN Documents Cyprus is due by 1 June. The mandate of whether it includes lethal or non-lethal Latest Security Council Resolutions the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus equipment—is likely to also be an issue. (UNFICYP) expires on 15 June. The Council • S/RES/1739 (10 January 2007) is expected to renew it for an additional six A final issue is whether the Sanctions Com- extended the UNOCI mandate until 30 months. Significant Council action on the mittee will also receive a request to June 2007 with increased troop levels. Cyprus situation remains unlikely. However, immediately lift individual sanctions as men- • S/RES/1721 (1 November 2006) pro- members may be keen to quietly encour- tioned in the Ouagadougou Agreement. longed by one year the transitional age some intensification of action by the period in Côte d’Ivoire and reinforced Secretary-General. Council Dynamics the powers of the prime minister. There seems to be wide consensus that the Latest Presidential Statement Key Recent Developments Council should follow the recommenda- The political stalemate in Cyprus continues. tions of the Secretary-General on the role of • S/PRST/2007/8 (28 March 2007) At press time, none of the committees and the UN in the peace process. The general endorsed the Ouagadougou Agree- working groups planned in the 8 July agree- view is that the UN should be available to ment, supported the appointment of ment has been established. This agreement help on the road to peace and remain com- Soro as prime minister and requested was signed last year by the Greek Cypriot mitted to overseeing the electoral process a report from the Secretary-General and Turkish Cypriot leaders in the presence in a free and fair manner. Some Council on the UN’s future role in the peace of then Under Secretary-General for Politi- members, during the 18 May consultations, process. cal Affairs Ibrahim Gambari. also expressed the need for vigilance if Latest Secretary-General’s Report there are further delays in implementing the • S/2007/275 (14 May 2007) In his last report to the Council in December, Ouagadougou timetable. former Secretary-General Kofi Annan Other UN Documents blamed both Turkish and Greek Cypriots It is unclear at press time whether all mem- • S/2007/223 (19 April 2007) was the for the impasse. He said that the two sides bers would agree to the arms embargo latest IWG communiqué, requesting had to “show the necessary good will and exemption. The parties and the facilitator its two co-chairs to consult with determination to overcome their apparent seem to believe this is necessary to fight ECOWAS and the African Union on deep mutual distrust and suspicion of each armed bandits and would also be a token of its future role and make recommenda- other’s true motives.” (See our December the Council’s willingness to help implement tions to the Security Council. Forecast for more details.) the peace process. On the other hand, few if any Council members believe that the Other Relevant Facts On 8 March, Greek Cypriots dismantled a presence of more weapons in the country part of the wall on the “green line” at the Special Representative of will be helpful. Indeed, the DDR process is southern end of Ledra Street in the capital the Secretary-General already complicated by large quantities of Nicosia. On 27 March, a Council press weapons. Some Council members are To be appointed statement welcomed this decision and reluctant to authorise the import of lethal Principal Deputy Special Representative urged the immediate implementation of the weapons. Abou Moussa (Chad) 2006 agreement on the bi-communal work- ing groups and technical committees. This At press time there is no official request for High Representative for Elections had no impact on the ground. Greek Cypriot an immediate lifting of individual sanctions, Gérard Stoudmann (Switzerland) President Tassos Papadopoulos made it and the matter has not been discussed. Size and Composition of UNOCI clear that the Ledra Street crossing would Underlying Problems • Authorised strength as of 2 June 2006: not be opened unless Turkish troops Some militias based in the west have up to 8,115 military personnel and up stationed on the other side withdrew. expressed dissatisfaction at not being to 1,200 police According to an intercommunal survey con- included in the peace process. This may • Strength as of 30 April 2007: 9,211 ducted by UNFICYP on 24 April, a federal pose problems for disarmament. total uniformed personnel, including settlement is the only proposal that would 7,854 troops, 200 military observers Serious violations of human rights continue have majority support in both communities, and 1,157 police and were not addressed in the Ouagadou- and they both accept the 8 July 2006 agree- • Key troop-contributing countries: gou Agreement. A 22 May UNOCI statement ment. However, mutual suspicions between Bangladesh, Pakistan, Jordan, condemned the pillage and extortion of two the leadership of the communities continue Morocco, Ghana Ivorian human rights organisations. to be the core problem for a political solu- Cost tion, despite the opening of crossing points. The main security challenge currently • 1 July 2006 - 30 June 2007 $472.89 The poll also found that a majority of Greek comes from the western part of the million Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots believe that country, where killings and rapes have the UN favours the other community. increased since the zone of confidence

16 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org Options retariat seems to have concerns that a The Council has the following options: further shrinking of UNFICYP would ham- n renewing UNFICYP for another six per its ability to fulfil its mandate. SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT months and urging the parties to imple- There is a wide consensus that the 8 July Monthly ment the 8 July agreement; agreement should be implemented, as it is n requesting the Secretary-General to pro- JUNE 2007 the only political process currently available. FORECAST ceed with a review of the UNFICYP mandate with a view of a future troop- Underlying Problems ing measures and contacts between the downsizing; and After Cyprus joined the EU in 2004, Turkey two communities. n requesting the Secretary-General to signed a protocol extending its EU customs 3 October 2005 Turkey’s accession negoti- appoint a mediator, as suggested by Kofi union agreement to the ten new EU mem- ations to the European Union began. Annan during his last press conference ber states, but stressed that this did not while in office. amount to a formal recognition of the 1 May 2004 The Republic of Cyprus, without Republic of Cyprus, and refused to open its its Turkish northern part, joined the EU. The Key Issues ports and airports to Greek Cypriots. Secretary-General ceased its good offices. The main issue is for the Council to find ways to break the current political stalemate The political situation in both Cyprus and 24 April 2004 The Annan settlement plan on while being perceived as neutral by both Turkey may be contributing factors which uniting the island was subject to a twin- sides. Council action will be influenced by will make it difficult to open negotiations. referendum. The Turkish north accepted whether the Secretary-General in his report Greek Cypriot presidential elections will the plan by 64.9 percent while the Greek considers that the process agreed in July is take place in February 2008. Current south rejected it by 75.8 percent. still a viable option or whether he recom- political difficulties in Turkey will not make April 2003 The “green line” opened between mends another initiative. His position was it easy for leaders to devote time and the Republic of Cyprus and the Turkish unknown at press time. political capital to solutions. Republic of Northern Cyprus. An important issue is the negative percep- Selected UN Documents November 2002 Secretary-General Kofi tions harboured by both sides which Annan presented a comprehensive settle- hamper implementation of the 8 July Latest Council Resolution ment plan for Cyprus that envisaged a agreement. Greek Cypriots attach impor- • S/RES/1728 (15 December 2006) federation with two constituent parts. tance to the issue of territorial property extended the mandate of UNFICYP in Northern Cyprus and want to address it until 15 June 2007 and called for the 1983 The Turkish Republic of Northern in technical committees. On the other completion of a preparatory phase for Cyprus was self-proclaimed and immedi- hand, they seem to believe that Turkish a good offices process. ately declared illegal by the Council in Cypriots are delaying the process on Selected Secretary-General’s Reports resolution 541. It was only recognised by purpose because of their wish to resume • S/2006/931 (1 December 2006) was Turkey. negotiations on the basis of the 2004 the last report on Cyprus. “comprehensive settlement plan”—a 1974 A coup d’état by Greek army officers • S/2004/437 (28 May 2004) was the bi-zonal, bi-communal solution rejected overthrew the president of Cyprus. A subse- last report on the Secretary-General’s by the Greek Cypriots in a referendum. quent Turkish military intervention led to a good offices in Cyprus. division of Cyprus into a Turkish Cypriot This stalled process is a key obstacle espe- Selected Letter north and a Greek Cypriot south. The” cially since Council members insist that the • S/2006/572 (25 July 2006) was the green line” became impassable. responsibility to move the process forward letter from the Secretary-General lies primarily with Cypriots themselves. As a 4 March 1964 Resolution 186 established transmitting the 8 July agreement. result there are few instruments of leverage UNFICYP with a mandate to prevent a over the parties to resume negotiations. Historical Background recurrence of fighting between the two communities. A “green line” of demarcation December 2006 Secretary-General Kofi The issue of further reducing UNFICYP’s dividing Nicosia was established. Annan proposed the appointment of a troop strength has been discussed in the high-level mediator. past but seems unlikely to be explored 1963 Constitutional rule in Cyprus collapsed in the wake of inter-communal strife. again at this time. 15 November 2006 Under Secretary- Council and Wider Dynamics General for Political Affairs Ibrahim Gambari 1960 Cyprus gained independence from wrote to leaders recommending a timetable France and Russia are viewed as traditional the UK after Greek and Turkish communi- to implement the 8 July agreement. supporters of the Greek Cypriots, whereas ties agreed to share power. A Treaty of Guarantee gave the UK, Greece and Turkey the UK and the US seem to want a better 8 July 2006 UN-sponsored talks between the right to intervene. balance for the Turkish Cypriots. Downsiz- Cyprus President Tassos Papadopolous ing UNFICYP, which is seen as detrimental and Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat by the Greek Cypriots, is not supported by led to an agreement on confidence-build- France and Russia. Moreover, the UN Sec-

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 17 and granting regional oil companies or gov- Other Relevant Facts Key Recent Developments Several political initiatives were launched ernments the power to sign contracts with Special Representative of the in the past three months in a renewed foreign companies could not be adopted Secretary-General and Chief of Mission international effort to stabilise the country. because of Kurdish and Sunni opposition. Michael Møller (Denmark) A ministerial meeting was held in Baghdad US contacts with Syrian and Iranian officials on 10 March involving foreign ministers of Force Commander at the March meeting in Baghdad have the P5, the UN, regional organisations Major General Rafael José Barni been interpreted as a shift in the US diplo- and Iraq’s neighbouring countries. The (Argentina) matic approach to the region. The US meeting launched committees in charge Assistant Secretary of State for Population, Size and Composition of Mission of security cooperation, Iraqi refugees and (as of 31 March 2007) Refugees, and Migration, Ellen Sauerbrey, energy supplies—at press time none had visited Syria on 12 March to assess the refu- • 915 total uniformed personnel, been set up. including 850 troops and 65 police; gee situation. A follow-up conference in Sharm el-Sheikh supported by 36 international civilian The last UNAMI human rights report under- on 3 and 4 May ended with a joint statement personnel and 104 local civilian staff lined the growing violence and described a reaffirming Iraq’s national unity. It expressed • Key contributors: Argentina, Austria, rapidly worsening humanitarian crisis, readiness to support the Iraqi government. Canada, Croatia, Hungary, Slovakia fuelled by “growing intolerance toward During the conference, the International and UK minorities”. The report also deplored that Compact with Iraq (ICI) was formally • Police contributors: Argentina, the Iraqi government had stopped provid- launched. The Compact is an agreement Australia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, ing casualty figures. On 22 February, the between the Iraqi government and the UN Croatia, El Salvador, India, Ireland, Council issued a press statement con- to consolidate peace and pursue political, Italy and the Netherlands demning all terrorist attacks in Iraq and economic and social development over the Cost (approved budget) reminding states of their obligation to next five years. Iraq received pledges of $30 prevent them, especially by thwarting the 1 July 2006-30 June 2007: $46.27 million billion in debt relief. Saudi Arabia separately transit of weapons and terrorists to and from (gross), including voluntary contributions agreed to forgive 80 percent of the Iraqi Iraq. Despite initiatives to include a of a one-third share from Cyprus and debt to the kingdom. $6.5 million from Greece reference to the humanitarian situation, it The refugee crisis continues to worsen. But was not in the statement. Useful Additional Sources at a ministerial-level conference, organised Options n The Cyprus Stalemate: What Next? by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees The Council has in recent years taken a low International Crisis Group, Europe Report in Geneva on 17 and 18 April, Iraq promised key approach to these regular reports. On No. 171, 8 March 2006 $25 million to help Syria and Jordan, cur- this occasion, however, a wider range of rently hosting about 2 million refugees. The options seems possible. US agreed to accept 20,000 Iraqi refugees. Iraq n Adopting a presidential statement sup- UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon trav- porting regional contributions to building Expected Council Action elled to Baghdad on 22 March to meet security in Iraq, encouraging a broader In June the Council will review the man- Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki. In May, he UN role in the political process, and dates of the Multinational Force (MNF), the attended the Sharm el-Sheikh meeting. encouraging political dialogue. Development Fund for Iraq and the Interna- n Adopting a statement focusing on the tional Advisory and Monitoring Board. There On 16 April six Shi’a Sadrist ministers worsening humanitarian and refugee will be briefings by the US on MNF activities withdrew from the government protesting crisis, urging all parties to respect human- and by the Secretary-General’s Special the prime minister’s refusal to set a timeta- itarian law and possibly urging greater Representative for Iraq (the quarterly report ble for a MNF troop withdrawal. transparency regarding casualties. of the UN Assistance Mission in Iraq On 10 May the media reported that a In the absence of a formal request by the (UNAMI) is due early in the month). The majority of Iraqi lawmakers in the National Iraqi government, any change in the MNF Council is expected to adopt a press state- Assembly endorsed a draft bill prepared by mandate is unlikely. ment or perhaps a presidential statement. the Sadrist bloc calling on a scheduled A draft resolution sponsored by the UK and The report on the UN Monitoring, Verifica- withdrawal of the MNF and requiring the US to terminate the UNMOVIC mandate is tion and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) Iraqi government to obtain parliamentary currently being discussed among the P5. is due by 1 June. The Council will hold approval before requesting an extension Options include: consultations in June and may adopt a of the UN mandate for the MNF. While the n simple termination of its mandate; resolution closing the UNMOVIC mandate. Sadrist bloc had promoted similar bills before, this was the first time it secured a n inclusion of compromise language on The Council will be briefed by Yuli majority of supporters. the absence of weapons of mass destruc- Vorontsov, High-Level Coordinator for tion (WMDs) in Iraq; and Iraq’s compliance with its obligations A draft law approved by the Iraqi cabinet on n transfer of UNMOVIC’s records and regarding Iraq/Kuwait missing persons 26 February allowing the central govern- archives to the UN archives. and property, as the next report is due in ment to distribute oil revenues to provinces June. A press statement is expected.

18 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org On the Iraq/Kuwait missing persons and Underlying Problems property, the Council will likely adopt a Sectarian violence is increasingly targeting press statement expressing concern at minorities. The 15,000 Palestinians remain- SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT the plight of families, and welcoming any ing in Iraq are particularly affected by the Monthly progress on the issue of missing property. humanitarian crisis as they have nowhere to flee. Their enclaves in Baghdad have been JUNE 2007 Key Issues FORECAST the target of militia attacks and raids by the A developing key issue is whether and Iraq Security Forces. Violence against how to strengthen the UN role in the • S/2007/236 (24 April 2007) was the Christians in Baghdad is also mounting. political reconciliation process. Iraq has letter from Iraq requesting the conclu- sion of the mandate of UNMOVIC requested it. The US would welcome it and The security situation in Kirkuk, an ethni- and the IAEA Iraq action team. the Secretary-General seems open to it. cally mixed and oil-rich region in the north • S/2007/224 (20 April 2007) was the The difficult security environment, however, with a Kurdish majority, is also deteriorating. letter from Iraq enclosing a summary is the key obstacle to a bigger UN presence. Neighbouring Turkey, with its own Kurdish of the 10 March Baghdad conference. In light of this, some Council members issues, has threatened cross-border opera- • S/2007/218 (19 April 2007) and may prefer to emphasise the existence of tions to fight the Turkish-Kurd militias, S/2007/245 (30 April 2007) was the other tracks such as participation in the especially after Kurdish militants were exchange of letters between the ICI and increasing assistance to the accused of a suicide bombing in Ankara on Secretary-General and the president constitutional review process. 22 May. of the Council on a letter from the IAEA The humanitarian crisis could play a key Iraq’s Constitutional Review Committee is Director-General noting that the IAEA role in discussions. So far, the Council has preparing to submit the results of its delib- had not been able to implement its not addressed this in any formal statement, eration to the parliament. The 15 May mandate in Iraq. concentrating instead on terrorist attacks. It deadline was not met and leaders from the • S/2007/184 (31 March 2007) was the is unclear whether this would attract sup- Sunni Arab minority have threatened to quit letter from Iran complaining about the port from the MNF powers. the government. firing of shots by the British military forces at the Iranian Consulate Finally, there is the issue of “benchmarks” Selected UN Documents General in Iraq. adopted by the US Congress on 24 May which the Iraqi government has to meet as Latest Security Council Resolutions Other Relevant Facts a condition for receiving further reconstruc- • S/RES/1723 (28 November 2006) tion aid. It remains to be seen whether and extended the MNF mandate until 31 Special Representative of how this will play out on the UN stage. December 2007. the Secretary-General for Iraq • S/RES/1700 (10 August 2006) Ashraf Jehangir Qazi (Pakistan) On UNMOVIC, the challenge is to find lan- extended the UNAMI mandate for guage on the absence of WMDs in Iraq, Secretary-General’s Special Advisor on another 12 months. the International Compact with Iraq which will be satisfactory to China, France and Russia on the one hand and for the US Latest Presidential Statement Ibrahim Gambari (Nigeria) and the UK on the other. The questions of • S/PRST/2007/11 (13 April 2007) Composition of the MNF UNMOVIC’s know-how and the role of the condemned the terrorist attack that (as of 17 January 2007) UN in archiving the Commission’s work are targeted the Iraqi Council of Repre- Albania, Armenia, Australia, Azerbaijan, also on the table. (For more information on sentatives. Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, UNMOVIC, see our June 2006 Forecast.) Selected Reports Czech Republic, Denmark, El Salvador, Estonia, Georgia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Council Dynamics • S/2007/106 (23 February 2007) was South Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedo- During consultations on 15 March China, the latest UNMOVIC report. nia, Moldova, Mongolia, Poland, France, Ghana, Indonesia, Panama, Peru, • S/2007/126 (7 March 2007) was the Romania, Singapore, Slovakia, Ukraine, Qatar and South Africa all made statements latest UNAMI report. UK, US (both Latvia and South Korea are raising humanitarian concerns. South Africa • S/2006/948 (6 December 2006) was to withdraw their troops by June) said that the powers granted to the MNF by the latest report on Iraq/Kuwait miss- the Council had to be exercised in a manner ing persons/property pursuant to Useful Additional Sources paragraph 14 of resolution 1284. consistent with international law by all n International Compact with Iraq website: parties, while Indonesia said that insurgent Selected Letters http://www.iraqcompact.org/ activities may be a direct result of the • S/2007/300 and S/2007/301 (7 May n Accepting Realities in Iraq, Gareth Stans- presence of foreign forces. Many called 2007) was the exchange of letters on field, Chatham House and University of for a timetable for troop withdrawal. the transfer of money from the Exeter, Middle East Programme Briefing While the UK seems to be favourable to the UNMOVIC account to settle Iraq’s Paper, May 2007 Council addressing the humanitarian and arrears to the UN. n War and Occupation in Iraq, Global Policy refugee crisis (although not as a separate • S/2007/274 (8 May 2007) was the Forum and Partners, May 2007 issue), the US appears more reluctant. letter from Egypt enclosing the n Iraq Humanitarian Crisis Situation and final statement of the Sharm el- NGO Responses, NGO Coordination Sheikh meeting. Committee in Iraq, 14 May 2007

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 19 n Iraq and the Kurds: Resolving the Kirkuk Key Issues Selected Secretary-General’s Reports The key issue in June will be whether to Crisis, International Crisis Group, Middle • S/2007/151 (15 March 2007) was the begin considering UNMIL’s future troop East Report No. 64, 19 April 2007 latest UNMIL report. n levels. This has been postponed for some Civilians Without Protection: The Ever- • S/2007/143 (13 March 2007) was a time in view of Liberia’s huge reconstruction Worsening Humanitarian Crisis in Iraq, report on cross-border issues in and peacebuilding needs, and the chal- International Committee of the Red West Africa. Cross, 11 April 2007 lenging regional environment. However, Other n UNAMI Human Rights Report, 1 January ongoing pressure to free up peacekeeping - 31 March 2007 resources for other missions makes it likely • S/2006/1044 (28 December 2006) was that at least some initial views on this issue the latest sanctions committee report. will be laid out. • S/2006/976 (13 December 2006) was the latest report of the Panel of Experts. Liberia Council Dynamics There is sympathy among most Council Other Relevant Facts Expected Council Action members regarding Liberia’s peace- The Council awaits the Secretary-General’s building needs. There is also concern that Special Representative of the quarterly report on the UN Mission in Liberia regional developments, particularly in Secretary-General (UNMIL). Resolution 1750 renewed UNMIL’s Guinea and Côte d’Ivoire, may threaten Alan Doss (United Kingdom) mandate until 30 September. This interim peacebuilding achievements in Liberia and UNMIL: Size, Composition and Cost report is expected to propose a drawdown Sierra Leone. plan, including “specific recommendations • Total authorised strength: up to 14,875 on force levels and options”. At press time, There is nonetheless awareness that if military and 1,240 police it seems unlikely that members will want to reasonable progress is being made on • Strength as of 30 April 2007: 14,060 revise UNMIL’s size before 30 September. drawdown benchmarks, the time will come military and 1,202 police soon to address UNMIL’s size given the • Key troop-contributing countries: The Council is expected to renew the increased peacekeeping demand and Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Nigeria and mandate of the sanctions Panel of Experts related costs. Pakistan by 20 June. The Panel is scheduled to • Cost: 1 July 2006 – 30 June 2007: submit its final report by 6 June. Underlying Problems $745.57 million The situation in neighbouring Guinea had UNMIL: Duration Key Recent Developments been a related concern. However, it seems The Council lifted the embargo on Liberian to have improved this year with the appoint- September 2003 to present; mandate diamond exports in late April. On 27 April, ment of a new prime minister and cabinet expires 30 September 2007 resolution 1753 also signalled that the and the apparently successful defusing of decision would be reviewed after reports a planned army mutiny in May. In addition, from the Kimberley Process and the Panel Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea in late of Experts on Liberia’s accession to and April unveiled plans to revive the regional Guinea-Bissau compliance with the Kimberley certification bloc known as the Mano River Union, largely Expected Council Action scheme. (For more details, see our 26 dormant since the early 1990s due to the In June the Council will receive the April Update.) conflicts in the region. Secretary-General’s quarterly report on The March Secretary-General’s report the UN Peacebuilding Support Office in UN Documents underlined that some progress has been Guinea-Bissau (UNOGBIS) and a briefing made concerning benchmarks for UNMIL’s Selected Security Council Resolutions by the Secretary-General’s Representative drawdown. There is concern nonetheless • S/RES/1753 (27 April 2007) lifted the in Guinea-Bissau, Shola Omoregie. with the slow pace in some key areas, diamonds embargo. The UNOGBIS mandate expires on including: • S/RES/1750 (30 March 2007) renewed 31 December. n the reconstitution of the armed forces; UNMIL until 30 September and No formal decision is expected although a n the adoption of a national security requested detailed drawdown plans. press statement is possible. (The Council strategy; • S/RES/1731 (20 December 2006) issued a press statement after the last two n the completion of reintegration pro- renewed sanctions. UNOGBIS reports.) grammes for ex-combatants; and • S/RES/1532 (12 March 2004) imposed n the consolidation of state authority an assets freeze against former Presi- Key Recent Developments throughout Liberia. dent Charles Taylor and associates. In March many of President João Bernardo • S/RES/1521 (22 December 2003) Vieira’s supporters defected to a new The Special Court for Sierra Leone imposed sanctions. coalition which then passed a no- announced that the trial of former Liberian • S/RES/1509 (19 September 2003) confidence motion in parliament against president Charles Taylor is scheduled to established UNMIL. Prime Minister Aristides Gomes. On 20 begin on 4 June at the Court’s outpost in March, Vieira was given 72 hours to agree The Hague. The trial is expected to take up to demands to appoint a new prime to 18 months to complete. minister or dissolve parliament.

20 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org On 29 March, Gomes announced his of cashew nuts scaring away foreign resignation. Demonstrators from the three merchants. Farmers who failed to sell leading political parties took to the streets their crops were unable to buy food. In SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT on 30 March demanding that Vieira accept April, shortly after the appointment of the Monthly the resignation. new prime minister, the government reduced the price of cashew nuts. It remains JUNE 2007 Further demonstrations were averted when FORECAST to be seen if lower prices will boost produc- Vieira appointed Martinho N’Dafa Cabi as tion and exports. A long-term solution Reports and Letters of prime minister on 9 April. Cabi put national needs to be found to avoid widespread the Secretary-General reconciliation high on his agenda and plans poverty and instability. to hold legislative elections next year. A new • S/2007/158 (20 March 2007) was cabinet was named on 17 April made up of Winning donor and investor confidence is the latest report on UNOGBIS. an alliance of political parties. another crucial issue. The $460 million • S/2006/974 (8 December 2006) and pledged at the donor roundtable confer- S/2006/975 (13 December 2006) was The International Monetary Fund visited ence on Guinea-Bissau, held in Geneva in an exchange of letters recommending Guinea-Bissau from 23 May to 6 June to November 2006 has not been delivered. extension of UNOGBIS until 31 conduct annual consultations with the Investors, shaken by events in the first few December 2007 and noting the government and discuss post-conflict months of the year, are slowly beginning activities of UNOGBIS. assistance. to show interest in Guinea-Bissau again. Other Options • SC/8988 (29 March 2007) was the One issue that may return is the frequency The Council has the following options. press statement expressing concern of the UNOGBIS reports. The Ad Hoc Com- n Choosing not to take any action. This is over the continuing political tensions. mittee on Mandate Review has agreed to the most likely option as long as the consider the suggestion of reports every six situation does not significantly deteriorate Other Relevant Facts rather than three months. by the time the Council meets. Representative of the Secretary-General n Issuing a press statement. This is Council and Wider Dynamics and Head of UNOGBIS possible if members want to stress the Guinea-Bissau remains a low priority for Shola Omoregie (Nigeria) importance of political stability and most members. Ghana is the lead country. signal their ongoing engagement to the The International Contact Group on Guinea- Size of UNOGBIS Staff new cabinet. Bissau remains quiescent. Twenty, including international civilians, n Issuing a presidential statement. This is military advisers, police advisers and The Council may be divided regarding the unlikely but possible if the Council wants local civilians reporting cycle with countries like the US to take a stronger stand. urging six months and others like Peru and Duration n Requesting the Secretary-General to Belgium preferring three months. 6 April 1999 to present include in his next report practical bench- marks and an exit timetable to guide Underlying Problems For historical background and a more Council discussions on an exit strategy Guinea-Bissau is growing as a transit point complete list of UN documents please see for UNOGBIS. for cocaine-smuggling. Over the last two our 23 December 2005 Update, and March Key Issues years there have been fifty known drug and December 2006 Forecasts and March seizures. Without adequate funding the The key issue for the Council is mainte- 2007 Forecast. government has been unable to build nance of the fragile peace. Recent capacity to control the narcotics trade. developments seem promising but there There is little coordination between the are concerns that in time the parties in the police, the border patrol, customs and the Peacebuilding Commission cabinet will find it difficult to work together army in addition to the lack of proper and with Vieira. Expected PBC Action prisons. With salaries unpaid in many In June the Organisational Committee of A key related issue is the military’s reaction. government ministries, reports suggest the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC) is Senior army officers are still receiving sala- that some officials are turning to the drug expected to select a new chair and two vice- ries but low-ranking officers have not been smugglers for extra income. chairs. The PBC’s annual report should be paid for months. Conditions are worse than finalised by the end of the month, along with UN Documents in 1998 when the army rose up against integrated peacebuilding strategies for Vieira during his earlier term as president, Security Council Resolutions Burundi and Sierra Leone. triggering a civil war. The army, or elements • S/RES/1580 (22 December 2004) in it, may be tempted to take advantage of Key Recent Developments revised and extended the mandate opportunities that may arise. A new chair and vice chair will be elected of UNOGBIS. before the PBC session ends in June. Not • S/RES/1233 (6 April 1999) supported Another issue is the lack of diversity in all candidates are currently known. Japan the decision of the Secretary-General Guinea-Bissau’s economy. Cashew nuts may seek the chair while the Latin American to establish UNOGBIS. account for 85 percent of export earnings. and Caribbean Group (GRULAC) wants to Last year the government raised the price retain one of the vice-chairs.

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 21 On 22 May, Jamaica was re-elected and PBC Dynamics Other Relevant Facts Georgia replaced Croatia for two of the There appears to be agreement that the General Assembly seats on the Organisa- Organisational Committee chair should go PBC Organisational Committee tional Committee. This maintains the to an Asian country and one of the vice- Members (as of June 2007) geographical balance following General chairs to a Western member. • Security Council: the P5 (China, Assembly resolution 60/261. France, Russia, UK and US), Underlying Problems Panama and South Africa Luxembourg and the Czech Republic Some progress appears to have been made • From the top ten financial replaced Belgium and Poland for two of on modalities for civil society participation contributors: Germany, Italy, Japan, the ECOSOC seats on the Organisational in the PBC. The ad hoc working group is the Netherlands and Norway Committee in February. expected to come up with concrete propos- • From the top ten military and police als early June. The membership of the top financial con- contributors: Bangladesh, Ghana, India, Nigeria and Pakistan tributors seems likely to remain unchanged UN Documents for another year. • ECOSOC: Angola, Brazil, Czech Selected Security Council Resolutions Republic, Guinea-Bissau, Indonesia, PBC Annual Report • S/RES/1646 (20 December 2005) Luxembourg and Sri Lanka The PBC’s annual report is due by the end decided that the five permanent • General Assembly: Burundi, Chile, of June. After endorsement by the Organi- members and two elected members Croatia, Egypt, El Salvador, Fiji and sational Committee, it will be submitted to of the Council will have seats on the Jamaica the General Assembly and the Council. PBC’s Organisational Committee. Chairman of the PBC PBC members agreed on the report’s con- • S/RES/1645 (20 December 2005) Organisational Committee tents in principle in early May. Along with a created the PBC and the Peace-build- • Ambassador Ismael Gaspar Martins description of PBC activities and country- ing Fund. (Angola) specific meetings, it may include a section Selected Security Council Debate PBSO Head on rules of procedure and the relationship • S/PV.5627 and resumption 1 • Carolyn McAskie (Canada) of the PBC with the General Assembly and (31 January 2007) was the Council PBSO Budget the Council. debate on the PBC. • $1.571 million Country-Specific Developments Selected PBC Related Documents Reports of the field missions to Sierra Leone • PBC/1/BDI/2 (21 May 2007) was the and Burundi were submitted in May. Inte- letter from the chair of the PBC’s grated peacebuilding strategy drafts are Organisational Committee transmit- International currently under discussion. For more details ting the report of the country visit to Criminal Tribunals on the PBC’s country-specific work, please Burundi. Expected Council Action see our April Forecast for Burundi and our • A/61/901-S/2007/269 (10 May 2007) The Council in mid June will receive May Forecast for Sierra Leone. was the letter from the chair of the briefings from the International Criminal PBC’s Organisational Committee Key Issues Tribunals for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) transmitting the report of the country Relations with the Council and the General and for Rwanda (ICTR). By then, the Council visit to Sierra Leone. Assembly remain a critical underlying should have received progress reports on • S/2006/1050 (26 December 2006) issue. In January and February, during the the respective completion strategies of the contained summaries of the October debates on the PBC in the Council and ICTY and ICTR, due every six months. No and December 2006 country-specific General Assembly, there were many substantive Council action is expected. suggestions on harmonisation. (For more meetings. details, please see our March Forecast.) Selected General Assembly Resolutions Key Recent Developments A key issue is how to proceed in a way • A/RES/60/261 (8 May 2006) decided In December 2006, the Council received a that will allow both the General Assembly the General Assembly seats on the briefing from the presidents and prosecu- and the Council to have input in the PBC’s PBC’s Organisational Committee. tors of both tribunals on their completion activities without reviving the tensions strategy reports submitted in November. Other surrounding the PBC’s creation. ICTY Prosecutor Carla Del Ponte asked the • GA/10570 (6 February 2007) was the Council for “fresh guidance” about whether Publication of the PBC’s annual report may General Assembly debate on the PBC. the tribunal should close its doors by 2010, give rise to similar issues. General Assem- • E/2006/L.2/Rev.2 (12 April 2006) was the date indicated in resolutions 1503 and bly resolution 60/180, which established the draft resolution adopted with the 1534 for both tribunals to complete all work. the PBC, requires that it be submitted to the distribution of ECOSOC’s seats on the Remaining open until former Bosnian Serb General Assembly for debate. Resolution Organisational Committee. President Radovan Karadžic and military 1646 requests that the report also be sub- commander Ratko Mladic, both still at large, mitted to the Council. are tried was the alternative.

22 Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org Hassan Bubacar Jallow, Prosecutor of the Options ICTR, said that the ICTR remained commit- The Council is not expected to address ted to the deadlines set by the Council and options for the tribunals beyond 2010 at this SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT that major cases were expected to con- point. However, it is likely that this will have Monthly clude during 2007 and 2008. However, ICTR to be explored in more detail before the end President Erik Mose noted that with 18 of the year. JUNE 2007FORECAST indictees still at large, the court would not be able to complete all trials by the end of Underlying Problems Council president containing a revised 2008. He made special mention of the The emerging reality is that the 2010 dead- version and assessment of the ICTR efforts to apprehend Félicien Kabuga, a line is unlikely to be met by either tribunal completion strategy. businessman accused of propelling the because of the high number of appeals. • S/2006/353 (29 May 2006) was the let- Rwandan massacres. According to Mose, The ICTY has indicated that it will probably ter from the ICTY president to the the option of transferring cases to African not complete trials at first instance before Council president containing the countries other than Rwanda does not late 2009. NGOs have appealed to the assessment of and report on the ICTY seem viable due to capacity and resource Council to extend the tribunals’ mandates if completion strategy. necessary to ensure that the remaining constraints, and the risk of overloading Other Relevant Documents national judicial systems. accused are apprehended and prosecuted. • A/61/271-S/2006/666 (21 August Key Issues UN Documents 2006) was the last annual report of the ICTY. A key issue is what will happen after 2010— Selected Security Council Resolutions referred to as the “legacy” issue. Aspects to • A/61/265-S/2006/658 (16 August • S/RES/1534 (26 March 2004) called be resolved include: 2006) was the last annual report of on the ICTY and ICTR to review their n trials for suspects still at large, principally the ICTR. respective caseloads and requested Karadžic, Mladic and Kabuga; • S/PV.5594 (15 December 2006) is both tribunals to provide the Council n the handling of extant appeals and the transcript of the last Security with a progress assessment of their requests for suspension of serving sen- Council briefing by the presidents and completion strategies every six tence and pardons; and prosecutors of the ICTY and ICTR. months. n administrative issues, including maintain- • S/RES/1503 (28 August 2003) called ing archives of the tribunals’ work. Other Relevant Facts on the ICTY and ICTR to complete all A key underlying issue is the current operat- trial activities in the first instance by the ICTY ing costs for the tribunals (approximately end of 2008 and to complete all work • Six accused at large, including former $270 million for each tribunal in 2006-2007) in 2010. Bosnian Serb President Radovan and the financial implications of legacy • S/RES/955 (8 November 1994) estab- Karadžic and his military commander related work. lished the ICTR and contained its Ratko Mladic statute in the annex. • 15 accused at the pre-trial stage; Council Dynamics • S/RES/827 (25 May 1993) established 11 referred to a national jurisdiction; Council members seem to agree on the the ICTY and approved the statute as 23 on trial; 29 at the appeal stage need to make progress on the legacy proposed by the Secretary-General in ICTR issues, but consensus on how to proceed his report S/25704. after December 2010 is lacking. Russia • 18 accused at large, including Félicien considers the term set by resolutions 1503 Selected Reports of the Kabuga, a businessman accused of Secretary-General and 1534 a fixed deadline, while European propelling the Rwandan massacres members see it as an indicative date. Devel- • S/25704 (3 May 1993) contained the • 11 accused awaiting trial; 25 on trial; opments over the year or so, particularly statute of the ICTY, as requested by six at the appeal stage regarding the main fugitives, will likely resolution 808 of 22 February 1993. shape Council members’ standpoints. Selected Letters

Differences over the costs of the possible • S/2006/951 (30 November 2006) was modalities for the legacy issues are also the letter from the ICTR president to likely. There may need to be discussion of the Council president containing the the trade-off between costs and accessibil- latest progress report on the imple- ity in terms of the tribunals’ archives. mentation of the completion strategy. • S/2006/898 (15 November 2006) was The Council Working Group on Tribunals, the letter from the ICTY president to an informal working group consisting of all the Council president containing the Council members, is expected to explore latest progress report on the imple- options for the tribunals’ future in the com- mentation of the completion strategy. ing months. It is likely that the tribunals • S/2006/358 (29 May 2006) was the let- themselves will provide considerable input. ter from the ICTR president to the

Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza, 885 Second Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10017 T:1 212 759 9429 F:1 212 759 4038 www.securitycouncilreport.org 23 Notable Dates for June Important Dates over the Reports Due for Consideration in June Relevant Document Horizon

1 June Commissioner’s quarterly UNMOVIC report n An AU Summit is scheduled for 1-3 July (UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission) S/RES/1284 in Ghana. 1 June SG semi-annual UNFICYP report (UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus) S/RES/1728 n A rebel unity conference in South Sudan early June SG semi-annual report on Iraq/Kuwait missing persons and property S/RES/1284 this July has been agreed to in principle 6 June Report of the Liberia Sanctions Committee’s Panel of Experts S/RES/1731 8 June SG quarterly UNAMI report (UN Assistance Mission in Iraq) S/RES/1700 ahead of possible peace talks with the early June The Lebanon Independent Border Assessment Team (LIBAT) report Sudanese government. and recommendations are due before the 1701 report. However, the n There are media reports that the Govern- assessment will take two to three weeks to complete and its report, ment of Sudan has promised demarcation along with the 1701 report, are likely to be delayed. S/PRST/2007/12 of the north-south border, perhaps as 12 June SG quarterly report on the implementation of early as July, well in advance of the 14 resolution 1701 (Lebanon) S/PRST/2006/52 November census, delayed from 30 June. mid June SG quarterly UNMIK report (UN Mission in Kosovo) S/RES/1244 n Presidential and legislative elections in mid June Semi-Annual progress reports on the respective completion strategies of the ICTY and ICTR S/RES/1534 Sierra Leone are expected 11 August. 15 June Report of the Côte d’Ivoire Sanctions Committee’s Group of Experts S/RES/1727 n A high-level meeting on climate change 20 June SG semi-annual UNDOF report is being planned on the sidelines of this (UN Disengagement Observer Force) S/RES/1729 September’s General Assembly with a view 22 June SG quarterly UNOGBIS report (UN Peacebuilding to a UN conference in Bali in December. Support Office in Guinea-Bissau) S/RES/1580 n There are media reports that the Nabih 26 June SG semi-annual BONUCA report (UN Peacebuilding Berri will convene the Lebanese parliament Support Office in the Central African Republic) S/PRST/2006/47 on 25 September to elect a new president. late June Interim report of the Sudan Sanction Committee’s Panel of Experts S/RES/1713 30 June SG quarterly UNMIL report including drawdown plans n The Secretary-General’s next reports (UN Mission in Liberia) S/RES/1750 on the thematic issues of Protection of 30 June SG report on Somalia including progress on a national Civilians in Armed Conflict and Women, reconciliation conference and contingency planning for Peace & Security are expected by October. a possible UN peacekeeping mission S/PRST/2007/13 n Local elections in the DRC are expected 30 June SG monthly report on Darfur S/RES/1590 in the second half of 2007. June 2007 Mandates Expire Relevant Document n Parliamentary elections in Kosovo are 15 June UNFICYP S/RES/1728 expected in late 2007. 15 June Group of Experts of the Côte d’Ivoire Sanctions Committee S/RES/1727 n A workshop on security sector reform, a 20 June Panel of Experts of the Liberia Sanctions Committee S/RES/1731 joint initiative of Slovakia and South Africa, 30 June UNOCI S/RES/1739 is being planned for later in 2007 in Africa. 30 June UNDOF S/RES/1729 n Presidential elections in Côte d’Ivoire are June 2007 Other Important Dates now expected by January 2008, post- 30 May-11 June A UN delegation will visit Darfur to assess the possibility of starting peace talks. poned from 31 October. The delegation will also visit Khartoum, Chad and Eritrea. 4 June The Special Court for Sierra Leone has reported that Charles Taylor’s trial at the Court’s outpost in The Hague will begin. SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT STAFF 6-8 June G8 Summit in Germany Colin Keating, Executive Director 11 June The IAEA Board of Governors will meet in Vienna regarding Iran. Joanna Weschler, Director of Research 11-18 June Fifth Session of the Human Rights Council in Geneva Curtis A. Ward, Senior Research Consultant 15 June Resolution 1723 called for a review of the Multinational Force, the Development Anne-Gaëlle Claude, Research Analyst Fund for Iraq and International Advisory and Monitoring Board in Iraq. Fernanda Rafaela Fernandes, Research Analyst 15 June Serge Brammertz’s appointment as the UNIIIC Commissioner expires Shamala Kandiah, Research Analyst (S/2006/998 and 999). Amanda Roberts, Programme Coordinator 20 June The previously scheduled constituent assembly elections in Nepal will Brian Lockstone, Communications Consultant likely be delayed until mid-November. Nicole Richards, Administrative Assistant 22 June The Council will likely hold an open debate on the Protection of Civilians Security Council Report is published with in Armed Conflict. the support of the Government of Canada, 25 June The Council will likely hold an open debate on natural resources and conflict. the Government of Norway, The Rocke- 30 June Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Timor-Leste. feller Foundation, the John D. and Catherine Also expected in June: T. MacArthur Foundation and the William • The Council is planning a visiting mission in late June to Addis Ababa and Ghana in advance of July’s AU Summit. and Flora Hewlett Foundation. It is incorpo- They will also be traveling to the DRC, Côte d’Ivoire and Sudan. rated as a not for profit Organisation and • The Organisational Committee of the Peacebuilding Commission is expected to select a new chair and two operates in affiliation with the Center on vice-chairs. Its annual report is also expected to be finalised by the end of the month. International Organization in the School of • The ICC Chief Prosecutor is likely to brief the Council on the Darfur case. International and Public Affairs at Colum- • A Somali national reconciliation conference in Mogadishu is tentatively scheduled for mid-June, postponed bia University in New York. from 16 April.

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