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Outcome Document GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF FINANCE DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AFFAIRS (ECONOMIC DIVISION) OUTCOME DOCUMENT DELHI ECONOMICS CONCLAVE 2013, International Conference on “The Agenda for the Next Five Years” Held at Hyatt Regency, New Delhi December 11-12, 2013 MINISTRY OF FINANCE DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AFFAIRS “The Agenda for the Next Five Years” Venue: Hotel Hyatt Regency, Ring Road, New Delhi. Plenary Day-1: December 11, 2013 (Wednesday) 09.00 – 10.00 AM Registration 10.00 – 10.45 AM Inaugural Session Welcome Address : Dr. Arvind Mayaram, Secretary, Economic Affairs, GoI Inaugural Address : Shri P. Chidambaram, Finance Minister, GoI Vote of Thanks : Dr. H.A.C. Prasad, Senior Economic Adviser, DEA, MOF 10.45 – 11.45 AM Opening Plenary Lecture Session -1 Chair: Dr. C. Rangarajan, Chairman, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister Plenary Lecture: Dr. Raghuram G. Rajan, Governor RBI Topic: “Financial Sector Reforms”. 11.45 AM-12.00 Noon Tea 12.00 Noon – 1.15 PM Plenary Session – 1 Theme Global Economic Development – Past, present and lessons for future Chair: Dr. Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission, GOI Panelists: Prof. Nathan Nunn, Harvard University Prof. Romain Wacziarg, UCLA Anderson School of Management Dr. K.L Prasad, Adviser, DEA, MOF Dr. Arvinder Sachdeva , Adviser, DEA, MOF 1.15– 2.15 PM Lunch 2.15– 3.30 PM Plenary Session– 2 Theme: Trade, Finance and Reforms Chair Dr. Bimal Jalan, former Governor, RBI Panelists Prof. Shang-Jin Wei, Columbia Business School Prof. Renato Baumann, IPEA, Brazil Ms. Naina Lal Kidwai, Chairperson, FICCI & Group General Manager and Country Head (India), HSBC Ltd Mr. David Rasquinha, ED, EXIM Bank of India Mr. S.B. Nayar, CEO & MD, IFCI Dr. H.A.C. Prasad, Senior Economic Adviser, DEA, MOF 3.30 – 3.45 PM Tea 3.45 – 4.45 PM Plenary Session – 3 Theme: Agriculture, Food Security & Inclusiveness- Challenges Chair: Ms. Arundhati Bhattacharya, Chairperson, SBI Panelists: Prof. Ruth Kattumuri, London School of Economics Mr. M. Narendra, Chairman & MD, IOB Dr. Ashok Gulati, Chairman, Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices 4.45 – 5.30 PM Plenary Lecture Session – 2 Chair Dr. Arvind Virmani, former India's representative to the IMF & former Chief Economic Adviser, Ministry of Finance, GOI. Plenary Lecture: Prof. Gita Gopinath, Harvard University Topic: "India in the Global Economy" 7.30 PM onwards Cultural Event & Dinner (Ms. Sonal Mansingh & Troupe) Theme: “Satyam Shivam Sundaram” Plenary Day-2: December 12, 2013 (Thursday) 10.00 – 10.20 AM Opening Session Day 2 Welcome Address : Dr. H.A.C. Prasad, Senior Economic Adviser, DEA, MOF 10.20 - 11.40 AM Plenary Session -4 Theme Industry & Services: Challenges Chair: Mr. S. Gopalakrishnan, President, CII & Co-founder and Executive Vice Chairman, Infosys Ltd Panelists: Prof. Andre Sapir, University of Brussels Mr. Subroto Bagchi, Chairman, Mindtree Mr. M.S. Raghavan, Chairman, IDBI Bank Mr. G.S. Negi, Adviser, DEA, MOF 11.40 – 12.00 Noon Tea 12.00 Noon – 1.00 PM Closing Session Theme: Infrastructure Financing and Corporate Governance: Challenges Welcome Address Shri Shaktikant Das, Additional Secretary, DEA, MOF Keynote Address 1 Mr. Ashok Chawla, Chairman, CCI Keynote Address 2 Mr. K. Venkatesh, Chief Executive & Managing Director, Larsen & Toubro Valedictory Address Mr. Oscar Fernandes, Minister of Road Transport & Highways, GoI. Round up and Dr. H.A.C. Prasad, Senior Economic Adviser, DEA, MOF, Vote of Thanks 1.00 PM Lunch THE DELHI ECONOMICS CONCLAVE 2013 “The Agenda for the Next Five Years” Executive Summary The important points emerged out of deliberations in the Delhi Economics Conclave 2013, are the follows; Finance Minister India, given its size, potential and population can be counted alongside China, the US and Euro zone as an engine of global growth. The task before India is to reverse the unintended economic consequences arising from the stimulus packages extended in response to the global crisis of 2008 and aim for faster, more inclusive and sustained growth over the next five years. To achieve the above aim, the priorities are: fiscal consolidation, tackling inflation and financial sector reforms. To facilitate fiscal consolidation the revenue deficit requires attention and borrowings should largely finance investment and not consumption. As far as controlling inflation is concerned, the argument that it should be controlled by suppressing farm gate prices or rural wages is specious as it ignores the needs of the poor. Given that monetary policy is the only instrument available to tackle inflation and that it is largely ineffective to contain food prices, the only way to reduce inflation is to increase supplies and to radically transform the manner in which commodities and food articles are stored, transported, distributed and sold, especially in urban markets. There is also a need to deal wisely with harvesting and marketing and deal strictly with hoarding and profiteering. Financial Sector reforms viz. submission of FSLRC Report, the new Companies Act, Passage of the PFRDA Bill and making the Pension Regulator a statutory authority, etc. once fully operationalized, will have profound implications for the financial sector. Financial sector reforms, based on broad consensus, can be game changers. Some of the important reforms include GST, the Direct Taxes Code, the Insurance Laws Amendment Bill and the Uniform Financial Code recommended by the FSLRC. Between 2004-05 and 2011-12, the average annual decline of the poverty ratio was 2.2 percentage points every year, which is around three times higher than the rate of decline in the poverty ratio during the period 1993-94 to 2004-05. The focus should remain on human development issues to fulfill the goal of faster, more inclusive and sustained growth over the next five years. Other Speakers India and China are two major emerging economies. Chinese economy is fundamentally private sector driven. State owned firms play a very minor role in most of the sectors. We can learn four i important lessons from China. They are; a) Reform or die- A sense of urgency never dies, no time to be complacent, b) Placing more faith in the market, c) Encourage infrastructure, both hardware (highways, high speed trains) and software (anti-monopoly laws, land allocation by auction to lessen corruption), and d) Promote regional experiments and competition e.g. four economic zones in the 1980s, economic development zone in 1990s and 2000s) Several positive trends have emerged in the Indian economy with pick-up in exports, reduction in the current account and fiscal deficits and relative stability achieved in the exchange rate. However there is no room for complacency and any slowdown in putting large stalled projects back on track before elections or any additional fiscal slippage will amplify the large challenges that a new Government will have to face. Greatest priority over the medium term is to create jobs in the economy by developing and facilitating competitive environment that will encourage efficiency and creativity. This job agenda requires a disciplined focus on four issues viz., a) improving the quality of infrastructure especially logistical support, and the power that industry and services need, b) education and training for the jobs that will be created, c) better business regulation, i.e. regulation that is a profit to the objective that is enforced, and d) a better, deeper financial system. The Reserve Bank of India is working towards an improved financial system. The focus or the five separate pillars of this are: a) clarifying and strengthening the monetary policy framework- a task entrusted to the Dr. Urjit Patel Committee. An improved framework would help the market to better appreciate RBI’s policy with inflation control remaining a priority, b) strengthening bank structure through new entry, branch expansion, new varieties of banks, and moving foreign banks into better regulated organizational forms. The primary aim to encourage foreign banks to incorporate domestically is financial stability by reducing the risk of contagion stemming from external forces, c) broadening and deepening financial markets, increase liquidity and resilience so that they can help allocate and absorb the risk entailed in financing India’s growth. Liquid markets will help banks offload risks viz. interest rate risks or exchange risk that they should not bear, d) expanding access to finance for small and medium enterprises, for the unorganized sector, the poor, the remote and undeserved areas of the country via technology, new business practices and organizational forms; and e) improving the ability of the system to deal with corporate distress and financial institution distress by strengthening real and financial institution restructuring as well as debt recovery. The two key indicators of domestic and external balances namely interest rate and exchange rate are under stress in India as well as some other EMEs because of elevated levels of inflation and large CAD. Policy options for better external environment include a) external environment is largely exogenous and as such collective action in international fora needs to be coordinated better so that policy spillover effect from advanced economies is minimized, b) exchange rate surveillance needs far greater scrutiny as the problem of rebalancing of demand is as yet not complete, c) progress on sustainable development and climate change is contingent upon ii delivering on funding promises and concerted action needed on creating a regulatory framework for arresting volatility in cross border financial flows. There are the deep-roots of economic development besides the traditional factors such as capital accumulation, innovation and so on. In researching the fundamental question(s) of development economics, greater importance is being attached to factors viz. institutions (including cultural norms), and ways in which the deeper factors-history and geography- affect them. The main issues are, a) the sources of wealth have a large component of intergenerational transmission i.e. ancestry matters for per capita income growth.
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