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Municipal Growth Forecasts and Land Need Analysis Presentation

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Municipal Growth Forecasts and Land Need Analysis Presentation County of Oxford Comprehensive Review (Phase 1) Presentation to Oxford County Council Phase One Comprehensive Review Draft Report Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 Today we will discuss… • Phase One Comprehensive Report: • Policy framework and study purpose • Recent growth and change • County-wide outlook • Area Municipal allocations • Land needs assessment 1 Policy Context and Study Purpose • Study purpose • Update and extend County growth outlook to 2046 • Forecast population, housing and employment growth in Area Municipalities and assess land need from 2019 to 2039 • Establish basis for updates to Oxford County Official Plan as well as land use planning, servicing, and financial planning studies • Study Undertaken in Context of Planning Policy Framework • Provincial Policy Statement (PPS), 2014 – provides provincial direction for managing growth and land uses, including directing most growth to serviced settlement areas • Oxford County Official Plan – implements PPS for Oxford and its Area Municipalities; currently projects growth to 2036 2 Policy Framework & Study Purpose | Recent Growth & Change | County-wide Forecasts | Area Municipal Allocations | Land Needs Assessment Recent Residential Growth in Oxford Higher than Historical Trends Historical Population and Net In-Migration • Census indicated County of Oxford, 2001-2016 Population Growth Total Population Census Year (Including Census Net Compound Annual Net In-Migration very high growth Net Change Undercoverage) Growth Rate 2001 103,200 2011-2016, relative 2006 106,600 3,400 0.65% 2,250 2011 108,700 2,100 0.39% 2,050 to past trends 2016 113,900 5,200 0.94% 3,710 Historical Household Growth • Building activity County of Oxford, 2001-2016 Household Growth Census Year Households Compound Annual suggests high Net Change Growth Rate 2001 37,270 growth will continue 2006 39,310 2,040 1.1% 2011 41,560 2,250 1.1% in the short-term 2016 44,270 2,710 1.3% 3 Policy Framework & Study Purpose | Recent Growth & Change | County-wide Forecasts | Area Municipal Allocations | Land Needs Assessment Residential Growth Highlights Demographic Changes • Household growth outpacing growth in population • Largely due to aging population and resulting decline in average household size Average Household Size, Oxford County, 2001-2016 Persons per unit Year (ppu) 2001 2.62 2016 2.57 2011 2.50 2016 2.47 4 Policy Framework & Study Purpose | Recent Growth & Change | County-wide Forecasts | Area Municipal Allocations | Land Needs Assessment Oxford Population is Aging HISTORICAL AGE STRUCTURE • Aging of the baby boom OXFORD COUNTY, 2006 & 2016 drives overall aging 100+ 95 - 99 2006 Male 90 - 94 2006 Female 85 - 89 2016 Male 80 - 84 • Out-migration of millennials 2016 Female 75 - 79 also affects age structure 70 - 74 65 - 69 60 - 64 55 - 59 • Without in-migration, aging 50 - 54 population combined with 45 - 49 40 - 44 low fertility rates will cause 35 - 39 30 - 34 population decline 25 - 29 20 - 24 15 - 19 10 - 14 5 - 9 0 - 4 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. based on Statistics Canada data. 5 Policy Framework & Study Purpose | Recent Growth & Change | County-wide Forecasts | Area Municipal Allocations | Land Needs Assessment General Pattern of Housing Continues Recent Residential Building Permits by Area Municipality 60% • Recent building activity has 50% 40% reinforced long-standing 30% settlement patterns in Oxford 20% 10% 0% • Housing dominated by low density “ground-oriented” 2011-2016 2017-2018 units, owing to the rural 40,000 character of many Housing by Unit Type, Oxford County communities 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Single/Semi Row Apt 2001 2016 6 Policy Framework & Study Purpose | Recent Growth & Change | County-wide Forecasts | Area Municipal Allocations | Land Needs Assessment Recent Employment Growth Strong Compared to Other Industrial Centres • Relatively steady job growth County-wide since 2001, with variation at the Area Municipal level • As with population and housing, most employment growth was in Woodstock • Other Area Municipalities, especially Ingersoll and Southwest Oxford, have also experienced job growth (albeit slower) • County shows strong job performance in context of southwestern Ontario Historical Total Place of Work Employment Oxford County, 2001-2016 Year Employment Net Change Growth Rate Activity Rate 2001 48,080 2006 52,960 4,880 1.95% 48.4% 2011 53,140 180 0.07% 51.5% 2016 57,330 4,190 1.53% 50.3% 7 Policy Framework & Study Purpose | Recent Growth & Change | County-wide Forecasts | Area Municipal Allocations | Land Needs Assessment Oxford Employment Growth Especially Concentrated in Industrial Activities TOTAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY NAICS • Strong industrial OXFORD COUNTY, 2001 - 2016 sector, but almost all Primary 2001-06 recent 2006-11 manufacturing Construction 2011-16 Manufacturing & growth related to Transportation and Warehousing the two auto plants Trade Information & Cultural Industries and Prof., Scientific Services • Most employment FIRE (Finance; Insurance; Real Estate; related to providing Leasing) Administrative and services to Oxford support and Other Services Educational & residents Health Care and Social Services Accommodation & Food Services and Arts, Entertainment Public Administration -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd. based on Statistics Canada data. 8 Policy Framework & Study Purpose | Recent Growth & Change | County-wide Forecasts | Area Municipal Allocations | Land Needs Assessment Oxford’s Changing Relationship to GGH • Recent growth largely driven by migration from Greater Golden Horseshoe • While most growth concentrated in Woodstock, all Area Municipalities have been growing 9 Policy Framework & Study Purpose | Recent Growth & Change | County-wide Forecasts | Area Municipal Allocations | Land Needs Assessment County Should Plan For Higher Population and Housing Growth Historical & Forecast Total Population Growth, 1991 - 2046 County of Oxford 10,000 9,000 8,950 • Forecasts assume: 8,000 7,810 7,950 7,524 7,600 7,000 7,410 7,400 • Continued high levels of net in- 6,000 migration from GGH in short and 5,000 5,273 4,000 medium term 4,254 3,000 3,348 2,000 2,124 • More modest growth in longer term 1,000 0 as population continues to age 1991-96 1996-01 2001-06 2006-11 2011-16 2016-21 2021-26 2026-31 2031-36 2036-41 2041-46 Historical & Forecast Total Housing Unit Growth, 1991 - 2046 County of Oxford • Housing still dominated by 4,500 4,000 single and semi-detached 3,980 units—though expect 3,500 3,000 3,100 increasing number of 3,080 3,020 2,705 2,500 2,640 2,540 2,520 rowhouses and some 2,250 2,000 2,045 apartments 1,500 1,580 1,000 500 0 1991-96 1996-01 2001-06 2006-11 2011-16 2016-21 2021-26 2026-31 2031-36 2036-41 2041-46 10 Policy Framework & Study Purpose | Recent Growth & Change | County-wide Forecasts | Area Municipal Allocations | Land Needs Assessment Expect Robust Employment Growth to Continue Historical and Forecast Total Employment • County to grow by Oxford County, 2016-2046 21,000 jobs between Year Employment Growth Growth Rate Activity Rate 2001 48,100 2016 and 2046 2006 53,000 4,900 1.96% 48.4% 2011 53,100 100 0.04% 51.5% 2016 57,300 4,200 1.53% 50.3% 2021 62,100 4,800 1.62% 51.7% 2026 64,600 2,500 0.79% 51.9% • Rate of job growth will 2031 67,200 2,600 0.79% 50.9% be line with population 2036 70,400 3,200 0.93% 50.0% 2041 74,100 3,700 1.03% 49.5% growth 2046 78,400 4,300 1.13% 49.6% 2016-2046 21,100 • Growth will be Proportion of Oxford County Employment by Type, 2046 balanced between industrial jobs on employment land and “population related” jobs 11 Policy Framework & Study Purpose | Recent Growth & Change | County-wide Forecasts | Area Municipal Allocations | Land Needs Assessment All Area Municipalities Will Experience Growth • County-wide residential forecasts allocated to Area Municipalities based on Shares of County-wide Household Growth 2016-2046 shares of household growth • In consultation with County and Area Municipal staff, we have considered: • Recent development trends • Land supply and level of services Woodstock Norwich Tillsonburg South-West Oxford Ingersoll Zorra • Consistent with PPS, most East Zorra-Tavistock Blandford-Blenheim growth directed to Settlement Areas with existing municipal services 12 Policy Framework & Study Purpose | Recent Growth & Change | County-wide Forecasts | Area Municipal Allocations | Land Needs Assessment 2019 to 2039 Outlook Provides Basis for Assessing Land Need • Residential land need to accommodate population growth is assessed on the basis of household forecast • For the purpose of assessing industrial land need, focus is on the employment land employment and population-related employment categories Summary 2019-2039 Growth in Households and Employment* Employment Population Area Municipality Households Land Related Employment Employment Woodstock 6,420 5,050 2,930 Ingersoll 1,520 1,240 640 Tillsonburg 1,650 610 730 Blandford-Blenheim 510 70 110 East Zorra-Tavistock 910 100 250 Norwich 740 150 220 South-West Oxford 360 40 100 Zorra 420 80 80 Oxford County 12,530 7,340 5,060 *Other Rural Based employment excluded for this purpose. 13 Policy Framework & Study Purpose | Recent Growth & Change | County-wide Forecasts | Area Municipal Allocations | Land Needs Assessment Land Needs Assessment Considers Growth Outlook in Context of Current Supply • 2019 Oxford County Vacant Land Inventory prepared as basis for assessing land need Tavistock • Focus on County’s serviced settlement
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