ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution
Summer Session Program 2000 • ISU • i ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution
Universidad Técnica Federico Santa Maria,
Host of the 2000 Summer Session Program From July 1 to September 2, Valparaiso, Chile
The RADARSAT-1 Image of the South Atlantic Ocean was provided by the Canadian Space Agency (© CSA 1998) and processed by the Canada Center for Remote Sensing, under the GlobeSAR-2 program. AVHRR Imagery provided by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (© NOAA 1998). Image interpretation provided by CAERCEM, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Report published by: Fermín Pastén Pastén, Universidad Santa Maria, Valparaiso, Chile
Additional copies of the Final Report or the Executive Summary for this project may be ordered from the International Space University (ISU) Headquarters. The Executive Summary also can be found on the ISU website.
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ii • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution
Summer Session Program 2000 • ISU • iii ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution
AUTHORS
STUDENTS
Andrea ACCOMAZZO Italy Aerospace Engineer ESA/ESOC, Germany Frédéric ALLEGRINI Switzerland Physicist and Engineer University of Bern Frédéric BOURGAULT Canada SM, Aeronautics and Astronautics Engineer Space Systems Laboratory, MIT, USA Mauro CALENO Italy Software Engineer Rhea System S.A., Belgium Carol CHAHINE Canada Dentist McGill University, Montreal Liara COVERT Canada PhD Candidate, Diplomacy & Strategy CEDS, France Guy DE SPIEGELEER France PhD, Fluid Mechanic Engineer Space Engine Division, SNECMA Sébastien DIDIERJEAN France Aeronautics and Space Engineer Sup Aero Fahreen DOSSA Canada Medicine McMaster University, Ontario Rémi DUQUETTE Canada Mechanical and Aerospace Engineer McGill University & University of Toronto Guillermo FRANCO Spain Civil & Structural Engineer Columbia University, NY, USA Michaël FRANÇOIS Belgium Electrical Engineer Verhaert Design & Development Martin GASCON Canada Aeronautics & Space Engineer Bombardier Aerospace Joseph Lorenzo HALL USA Astrophysics Northern Arizona University Anne HALNA du FRETAY France Public Relations, International Relations ESA/HQ Bernd HARNISCH Germany Physics & Optical Engineer ESA/ESTEC, Netherlands Kay-Uwe HÖRL Germany Air & Space Law McGill University, Montreal, Canada
iv • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution
Thor HOGAN USA Space Policy & Law George Washington Univ. Miguel Angel ITURMENDI COPADO Spain ATP Pilot & Flight Instructor Kendall Aircraft, Oklahoma Univ. Dominique LESPIAUCQ France Aeronautic Engineer French Air Force Alberto LOBO-GUERRERO SANZ Colombia Mineral Exploration Geology Lobo-Guerrero Geologia Ltda Armin LÖSCHER Austria Technical Physics Engineer Technical University of Graz Tricia MACK USA Extravehicular Activity (EVA) Operations NASA Johnson Space Center François OBÉ France Aeronautics and Space Engineer Sup Aero Marius OCHISOR Canada Aerospace Engineer Canadian Space Agency Cristián PUEBLA-MENNE Chile Aerospace Engineer Chilean Air Force Yolanda QUELHAS France/Portugal Master in International Law and MBA French Research Ministry, Space Dep’t. Fabienne RAMIANDRASOA France Mechanical Engineer EADS Launch Vehicles Nohemy RIVERA Honduras Architect Astronomical Association of Honduras Shannon ROSS Canada Environmental Scientist Canada Centre for Remote Sensing Claudia SARROCCO Italy LL.M. Air & Space Law McGill University, Montreal, Canada Stefan SCHULZ Germany Space Engineer Technical University of Berlin Koby SHOSHAN Israel Physics, Math. and Telecom Engineer Tel Aviv Univ., Israel Air Force (IAF) Laura SIE Canada Aerospace Engineer Carleton University Claudio SILVA Chile Fisheries Engineer Universidad Católica de Valparaíso Regina SPELLMAN USA Mechanical Engineer NASA Langley Research Center Juan Luis VALERO Spain Researcher Western European Union Hanyo VERA ANDERS Chile Aeronautic Engineer UTFSM
Summer Session Program 2000 • ISU • v ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution
DESIGN PROJECT CO-CHAIRS
Vern SINGHROY Canada Canada Center for Remote Sensing, Canada International Space University, France
Ray WILLIAMSON USA Space Policy Institute, George Washington University
VICE CHAIR
Hernán VILLAGRAN Chile Universidad Técnica Federico Santa Maria
FACULTY
James BURKE USA NASA/Caltech Jet Propulsion Laboratory Eric SLACHMUYLDERS Belgium European Space Agency
TEACHING ASSISTANT
Noémi NAGY Hungary University of Toronto, Canada
LECTURERS
Julio BACMEISTER USA Universities Space Research Association Maria Angela BARBIERI Chile Universidad Católica de Valparaíso Instituto de Fomento Pesquero Marcelo SOUZA Brazil National Institute for Space Research Maria del Pilar CORNEJO Ecuador Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral Angel Gustavo CORNEJO Peru National Agrarian University La Molina Jerome E. DOBSON USA Oak Ridge National Laboratory Ulises FAUNDEZ Chile Universidad de Chile Florian E. GUERTIN Canada Canada Center for Remote Sensing Maria Consuelo LEON Chile Universidad de Playa Ancha Ciencias y Educación WOPPKE Yves MENARD France CNES Joaquin URZUA Chile Centro de Estudios Aeronáuticos y del Espacio
vi • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors wish to express their indebted appreciation and recognition to the numerous individuals and organizations who helped make their project successful.
Li-Te CHENG Canada Memorial University of Newfoundland Münevver KÖKÜER Turkey Queen’s University of Belfast, N. Ireland Morla MILNE Canada Carleton University Patricio ACEITUNO Chile Universidad de Chile Carmen ARTIGAS Chile Economic Commission for Latin America & the Caribbean Juan ANDUEZA CALDERÓN Chile Servicio Hidrográfico y Oceanográfico de la Armada de Chile Jocelyn BELL BURNELL United Kingdom The Open University Alejandro CABEZAS Chile Servicio Hidrográfico y Oceanográfico de la Armada de Chile Vincenzo DE CHIARA Italy MARS Center Frank DE BRUIN The Netherlands ESA/ESTEC Sue DIGBY USA NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory Lisa J. FARROW USA NOAA Office Clemencia FORERO Colombia Ministry of Foreign Relations Caitlin GRIFFITH USA Northern Arizona University Ben HOLT USA NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory Clara LOVETT USA Northern Arizona University Barry LUTZ USA Northern Arizona University Bernadette MARRIOTT USA Northern Arizona University Jenny MATURANA CABEZAS Chile Servicio Hidrográfico y Oceanográfico de la Armada de Chile José Daniel PABÓN CAICEDO Colombia IDEAM David PECOVER Belgium Rhea System S.A. Marcel POULIQUEN France SNECMA Malcom V. PHELPS USA NASA Headquarters, Washington, DC Juan QUINTANA Chile Servicio Meteorológico de Chile Suzanne SHIPLEY USA Northern Arizona University Luciano SAN MARTIN Chile University Playa Ancha Gaston SEPULVEDA BIDEGAIN Chile Jefe Unidad de Emergencias Agrícolas, Subsecretaría de Agricultura Chile Klaus von STORCH KRÜGER Chile Fuerza Aérea de Chile Gaston TORRES Chile Servicio Meteorológico de Chile Maximo VENEGAS Chile Centro de Estudios Aeronáuticos y del Espacio Eleuterio YÁÑEZ R. Chile Universidad Católica de Valparaíso
Summer Session Program 2000 • ISU • vii ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution
FACULTY PREFACE
The two objectives of ISU design projects are first, to have students practice intercultural teamwork, under deadline pressure, on topics of current worldwide importance and second, to have them present their results in reports that can be influential beyond ISU and useful to the students in their later careers. In this ENSO design project at the session in 2000 hosted by UTFSM in Chile, a team of 38 young professionals from 14 countries examined the El Niño and Southern Oscillation oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon and its effects on Chile, Ecuador, Peru and Colombia, with emphasis on the role of space systems in understanding El Niño and dealing with its consequences. During their difficult effort to address unfamiliar problems, develop a working organization, find worldwide sources of information and produce a coherent set of findings and recommendations, team members developed exactly the interpersonal relationships that it is the purpose of ISU to stimulate. We, their teaching assistant and faculty members are pleased and privileged to have been associated with these dedicated, energetic and talented young people, and we commend their results to the reader. We believe that their main recommendations are practical and can be effected at reasonable cost by both the producers and the users of information relating to ENSO. We hope that these measures will be promptly implemented to the benefit of all the peoples in the regions most affected by El Niño.
Vern SINGHROY Ray WILLIAMSON Second Half Co-chair First Half Co-Chair
Eric SLACHMUYLDERS Hernán VILLAGRAN Faculty Member Vice Chair
James BURKE Noémi NAGY Faculty Member Teaching Assistant viii • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution
STUDENT PREFACE
What you are holding in your hands is the product of a design project from the International Space University Summer Session Program held during July and August of 2000 at La Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María in Valparaiso, Chile. Thirty eight space professionals from 14 countries worked intensively to generate this study.
When the team members initially assembled and introduced themselves, they explained why they were interested in working in the ENSO design project. Their reasons were based on one central theme: they wanted to leave a lasting, practical body of work that could be used to save lives and reduce the negative impacts on the region.
Throughout the design project process, the team had to surmount many obstacles and deal with numerous challenges. The largest of these challenges were the limited amount of time available and the pressure involved with realizing it within an intercultural and interdisciplinary atmosphere.
As one team member optimistically described initially “we are thirty eight hard - working individuals with approximately 2 months to accomplish this objective… 38 people working 8 hours per day for 9 weeks is over 2,000 man hours”. Of course there are practical limitations to this calculation but it served to prove that task was not impossible. As the weeks passed it was realized that there was a very limited amount of time in which to design this project and, more often than not, it appeared that it would never be finished. Fortunately, everything had a tendency to fall into place and deadlines were met.
The demands involved with working under such time constraints in addition to working in an environment of more than a dozen cultures and professional backgrounds often compounded the task at hand. A glance at the list of students is sufficient to see that engineers to public relations specialists all combined their knowledge to bring this report to fruition. This adds the advantage of having numerous perspectives as all members contributed to the written product.
The team feels that this product is what was initially desired: a thorough analysis and functional plan of ENSO impact reduction in the South American Pacific coast.
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ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Authors ______iv
Students ...... iv Design Project Co-Chairs ...... vi Vice Chair ...... vi Faculty ...... vi Teaching Assistant ...... vi Lecturers ...... vi Acknowledgments ...... vii
Faculty Preface ______viii
Student Preface ______ix
Table of Contents______xi
List of Figures ______xvi
List of Tables ______xx
Introduction ______1
1 ENSO PHENOMENON DESCRIPTION ______3
1.1 Introduction ...... 3 1.2 History ...... 3 1.2.1 Prehistory 3 1.2.2 Recorded history 6 1.2.3 Evolution of ENSO Research 7 1.3 Normal climatic conditions ...... 9 1.3.1 Atmosphere 11 1.3.2 Ocean 15
Summer Session Program 2000 • ISU • xi ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution
1.3.3 Atmospheric and oceanic interaction 19 1.3.4 Local climatology 21 1.4 El Niño...... 23 1.4.1 El Niño conditions 24 1.4.2 Evolution of atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the Pacific Ocean 24 1.4.3 The cycle continues 29 1.5 La Niña ...... 30 1.5.1 Atmosphere 31 1.5.2 Ocean 34 1.6 Summary ...... 38 1.7 References ...... 38
2 Country Profiles: Pacific Coastal Region of South America _ 41
2.1 Chile ...... 41 2.1.1 Geography 41 2.1.2 Economy 42 2.1.3 Transportation and Communications 42 2.1.4 Government and Politics 43 2.1.5 National, Regional, and International ENSO-Related Institutions 44 2.2 Peru ...... 44 2.2.1 Geography 44 2.2.2 Economy 46 2.2.3 Transportation and Communication 46 2.2.4 Government and Politics 47 2.2.5 National ENSO-Related Institutions 47 2.2.6 International and Regional ENSO-Related Institutions 48 2.3 Ecuador ...... 48 2.3.1 Geography 48 2.3.2 Economy 49 2.3.3 Transportation and Communication 50 2.3.4 Government and Politics 50 2.3.5 ENSO Related Entities in Ecuador 51 2.4 Colombia ...... 52 2.4.1 Geography 52 2.4.2 Economy 53 2.4.3 Transportation and Communication 54 xii • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution
2.4.4 Government and Politics 54 2.4.5 National ENSO-Related Institutions 55 2.4.6 International and Regional ENSO-Related Institutions 55 2.5 References ...... 56
3 The Effects of ENSO on the Pacific Coast of South America 57
3.1 Introduction ...... 57 3.2 Definition of Terms ...... 57 3.3 Assessing ENSO's Socio-economic Impact ...... 58 3.4 Overview of the effects of ENSO phenomenon on Industry, Infrastructure and People ...... 60 3.4.1 Physical Infrastructure and Transportation 60 3.4.2 Industry 63 3.4.3 Social Sector 67 3.4.4 Indirect Effects 71 3.5 Preparation and mitigation ...... 72 3.6 Findings ...... 73 3.7 References ...... 75
4 ENSO and technology______77
4.1 Introduction ...... 77 4.2 Forecasting and applications ...... 77 4.2.1 Climate forecasting 77 4.2.2 Applications 83 4.2.3 Outlook 92 4.3 Data gathering ...... 92 4.3.1 Spaceborne systems 93 4.3.2 Airborne systems 100 4.3.3 Oceanographic systems 105 4.4 Data distribution and integration ...... 115 4.5 Findings and gaps ...... 118 4.6 References ...... 119
5 Institutions ______123
5.1 International Coordination ...... 123
Summer Session Program 2000 • ISU • xiii ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution
5.1.1 Policy & Legal Aspects 123 5.1.2 International Institutions 125 5.2 Regional Coordination ...... 128 5.2.1 The Permanent Commission of the South Pacific (CPPS) 128 5.2.2 Regional Study of El Niño Phenomena (ERFEN) 130 5.3 Chile: Current ENSO-Related Institutions ...... 131 5.3.1 Government 131 5.3.2 Private Sector 133 5.3.3 Education 138 5.3.4 Inter-Sector Committee for ENSO 139 5.4 Findings...... 140 5.5 References ...... 141
6 Recommendations ______145
6.1 Introduction ...... 145 6.2 Chilean case study ...... 146 6.2.1 Short Term Proposal 146 6.2.2 Long-term Proposal: The National ENSO Office (NEO) 147 6.2.3 Implementation 148 6.2.4 Technology 148 6.2.5 Users 156 6.2.6 Cost benefit analysis 158 6.3 Regional proposals ...... 159 6.3.1 Inter-Regional Cooperation 160 6.3.2 Virtual Information Exchange 160 6.3.3 Electric Power Proposal 160 6.3.4 Early Warning System for Equatorial Waves 161 6.4 International recommendations ...... 162 6.5 Implementation ...... 162 6.6 Summary ...... 162 6.7 References ...... 163
Appendices ______165
A Remote Sensing Satellites in the Visible Spectrum...... 165 B Remote Sensing Satellites in the Near Infrared Spectrum ...... 167 xiv • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution
C Remote Sensing Satellites in the Short Wave Infrared Spectrum ...... 169 D Remote Sensing Satellites in the Thermal Infrared Spectrum ...... 170 E Remote Sensing Satellites in the Microwave Spectrum ...... 171 F Remote Sensing Satellites for Altimetry ...... 172 G Data collected by NOAA AOC Heavy Aircraft During Flight ...... 173 H Upper-Air stations in Chile, Peru, Colombia and Ecuador...... 174 I Summary of oceanographic systems...... 175
List of Acronyms ______177
Glossary ______184
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1-1 Normal Conditions ...... 10
Figure 1-2 Air pressure during normal conditions, darker grey indicates higher pressure11
Figure 1-3 Global winds patterns Source: University of Illinois/DAS ...... 12
Figure 1-4 Example of sea surface winds (m/s) during normal conditions. Source: TAO Project Office/PMEL/NOAA ...... 13
Figure 1-5 SOI definition. Source: University of Columbia ...... 14
Figure 1-6 Southern Oscillation Index. Source: University of Wisconsin-Madison ...... 14
Figure 1-7 Air temperature (ºC) and surface winds (m/s) during August 7 2000. Source: TAO Project Office/PMEL/NOAA ...... 15
Figure 1-8 Sea surface temperature (ºC) during normal conditions. Source TAO Project Office/PMEL/NOAA ...... 15
Figure 1-9 Vertical profiles of mean and anomalous temperature (average of 2ºS to 2ºN range) during August 7, 2000. Source: TAO Project Office/PMEL/NOAA.. 16
Figure 1-10 Five-day 20ºC Isotherm depth (m) and winds (m/s) during normal conditions. Source: TAO Project Office/PMEL/NOAA ...... 16
Figure 1-11 Equatorial upwelling. Source: Wallace & Vogel ...... 18
Figure 1-12 Coastal upwelling. Source: Wallace & Vogel ...... 18
Figure 1-13 SeaWiFS Chlorophyll a concentration (mg/m3) during July 2000...... 19
Figure 1-14 Global Surface Currents ...... 20
Figure 1-15 Winds and sea temperatures in normal conditions ...... 24
Figure 1-16 Winds and sea temperatures during el niño conditions ...... 25
Figure 1-17 Sea surface temperature (ºC) and southern oscillation index (SOI)...... 25
xvi • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution
Figure 1-18 Evolution of Upwelling, Thermocline and winds ...... 26
Figure 1-19 Sea temperatures in Pacific ocean during normal conditions (1) ...... 26
Figure 1-20 Evolution of pacific Ocean temperature (2) ...... 27
Figure 1-21 Evolution of pacific Ocean temperature (3) ...... 27
Figure 1-22 Evolution of sea surface temperature (SST) and winds in the Pacific during 1997 El Niño year ...... 27
Figure 1-23 Rainfall in Pacific ocean during normal conditions ...... 28
Figure 1-24 Rainfall in Pacific ocean during El Niño conditions...... 28
Figure 1-25 El Niño Condition ...... 29
Figure 1-26 The El Niño cycle ...... 30
Figure 1-27 La Niña ...... 30
Figure 1-28 Sea level pressure (mb) during January 2000 ...... 31
Figure 1-29 Sea surface winds (m/s) during La Niña of January 10 2000 ...... 32
Figure 1-30 Precipitable water anomaly (kg/m2) during Januray 2000 ...... 32
Figure 1-31 Sea surface temperature (ºC) and southern oscillation index (SOI)...... 33
Figure 1-32 Air temperature (ºC) and surface winds (m/s) during January 10, 2000 ...... 34
Figure 1-33 Sea surface temperature (ºC) during La Niña conditions ...... 34
Figure 1-34 Vertical profile of mean temperature (average 2ºS to 2ºN) and anomalies during January 10, 2000 under La Niña conditions ...... 35
Figure 1-35 Five-day 20ºC Isotherm depth (m) and winds (m/s) during La Niña ...... 35
Figure 1-36 Sea surface height (cm) during La Niña conditions ...... 36
Figure 1-37 SeaWiFS chlorophyll a concentration (mg/m3) during El Niño conditions in January 1998...... 37
Figure 1-38 SeaWiFS chlorophyll a concentration (mg/m3) during La Niña conditions in January 2000...... 37
Figure 2-1 Map of Chile...... 42
Summer Session Program 2000 • ISU • xvii ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution
Figure 2-2 Map of Peru ...... 45
Figure 2-3 Map of Ecuador ...... 49
Figure 2-4 Map of Colombia ...... 53
Figure 3-1 Collapse of Bridges ...... 61
Figure 3-2 Floods and Food transportation ...... 61
Figure 3-3 Collapse of Houses in Ica, Peru...... 68
Figure 4-1 Flow diagram explaining methodology for forecasting and mitigation using Expert Systems and Early Warning Systems...... 84
Figure 4-2 Example of a CARSAT produced map for forecasting swordfish locations in the Pacific coast of Chile...... 85
Figure 4-3 Initiation process of Kelvin waves ...... 89
Figure 4-4 Equatorial and coastal Kelvin waves ...... 89
Figure 4-5 Significant wave height tracks of the latest 8 hours measured by TOPEX/POSEIDON ...... 91
Figure 4-6 Significant wave height of the latest 10 days measured by TOPEX/POSEIDON ...... 91
Figure 4-7 Satellite SMOS for sea surface salinity measurements ...... 99
Figure 4-8 Satellite Orbview-4 with hyper spectral instrument ...... 100
Figure 4-9 A portion of eyewall winds mapped by MACAWS in the NW quadrant ...... 102
Figure 4-10 GCOS Upper-air Observing Network Stations ...... 104
Figure 4-11 Worldwide Map of the DBCP Buoy Systems ...... 109
Figure 4-12 TAO/TRITON Array ...... 110
Figure 4-13 TRITON System Data Flow Process ...... 111
Figure 4-14 Schematic of the Argo float array. Positions of 3000 mid-depth floats shown 3 years after deployment at 3º latitude spacing ...... 112
Figure 4-15 Argo National Commitments for Float Deployments ...... 113
xviii • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution
Figure 4-16 Future Implementation of the TAO Array ...... 114
Figure 4-17 Global Telecommunication System Structure ...... 116
Figure 4-18 GODAE Data Flow ...... 117
Figure 5-1 CPP’s Organizational Structure ...... 129
Figure 5-2 COLBUN Machicura power plant (Chile) ...... 133
Figure 5-3 Factory Boat working ...... 135
Figure 5-4 Agricultural work in the South of Chile ...... 136
Figure 5-5 Intersectorial Committee...... 140
Figure 6-1 Proposed framework for the National ENSO Office ...... 147
Figure 6-2 NEO Process ...... 148
Figure 6-3 Data Flow to National ENSO Office ...... 149
Figure 6-4 Flow Diagram for GIS- Expert System ...... 150
Summer Session Program 2000 • ISU • xix ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution
LIST OF TABLES
Table 3-1 Economic losses due to El Niño 1997/1998 ...... 60
Table 3-2 Cholera Cases ...... 70
Table 4-1 Operational Remote Sensing Satellite Systems ...... 94
Table 4-2 Parameters for Global Models and Expert Systems ...... 95
Table 4-3 Electromagnetic Spectrum Bands for Remote Sensing ...... 95
Table 4-4 Correlation Table: Parameters/ Spectrum ...... 96
Table 4-5 Typical Providers of RS Space Images and their Relevant Satellites ...... 96
Table 4-6 Existing and Planned Data Collecting Satellite Systems...... 98
Table 4-7 Future NASA Earth Observation Projects ...... 101
Table 4-8 Data Collectors Summary ...... 107
Table 5-1 Electric Generation Systems in Chile ...... 134
Table 6-1 Data Needed for Expert Systems ...... 151
Table 6-2 Data Needed for ENSO Mitigation ...... 152
Table 6-3 Required Satellite Data Parameters ...... 153
Table 6-4 Recommended Guide for Data Use...... 154
Table 6-5 Recommended Technical Phases for Implementation for Chile ...... 156
Table 6-6 Estimated cost of the NEO personnel with 7 and 16 employees...... 159
Table 6-7 Table of Implementation Steps ...... 163
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INTRODUCTION
El Niño and the Southern Oscillation, also known as ENSO, is an atmospheric disturbance that appears along the coast of South America at more or less regular intervals. It results in significant consequences in climate systems around the world. The effects of ENSO have been observed since the first human colonies settled along the South American Pacific coasts. However, it is only now that researchers and scientists are beginning to unlock its secrets.
There are documents that can be traced back to some of the first Spanish colonists, as well as archeological testimonies that speak of the sudden appearance of warm water patterns along the South American Pacific coast, now known as El Niño, and of a period of cold water that follows, now known as La Niña.
These early testimonies depict the effects that this climatic disturbance has on the environment and the people of South America. Floods, droughts, storms, and mudslides cause people to suffer from the loss of homes, starvation due to loss of crops, disease, and sometimes death.
Today, this picture is much the same, and ENSO continues to surface every 3 to 7 years. Its impacts take an even higher toll today than a century ago due in part to population growth in higher risk areas. In countries with poor infrastructure, the effects of ENSO can account for losses of greater than 10% of the Gross National Product (GNP), as well as the loss of hundreds of lives.
However, this situation is slowly improving. In the past 100 years, humankind has taken steps in the development of strengthened social, technological and political infrastructures. From a social standpoint, we have seen the creation of regional, national and international institutions with the aim, not always accomplished, of helping the most vulnerable parts of the world’s population. From a political standpoint, institutions have been created that address long-term problems, such as preparing the population to address future threats. From a technological standpoint, we have gained a greater understanding of the behavior of the systems that surrounds us, such as the Earth and its climate.
These technological advances may be the most significant. In the last twenty years, several tools have been developed to study and predict meteorological and climatologic changes. Expert systems and Early warning systems are used to mitigate the effects of natural hazards in the long-term, and short-term respectively. The data necessary for these systems can be obtained through various means including Geographic Information Systems (GIS) databases, satellite imagery, oceanographic buoy systems, airborne sensors and ground stations. Current use of these systems provides a large array of
Summer Session Program 2000 ISU • ISU • 1 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution data. These data need to be integrated properly to allow effective use. Space assets play an important role in the collection and integration of this data.
However, the development of applications for prediction and mitigation of long-term climate changes like ENSO is at a relatively early stage in South America. Major efforts need to be made in order to collect, process and make better use of available information that can be obtained by local and international organizations.
The goal of this project is to suggest guidelines for the countries of the South American Pacific Coast that may help these countries’ regional, national and international ENSO management initiatives. First, the impacts of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation on Chile and the Southern Pacific Coast will be analyzed. Then, existing space assets and technology used to monitor these effects will be discussed. Finally, recommendations will be offered to enable these countries to better protect their population, and progress further on the path of effective social and economical development.
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1 ENSO PHENOMENON DESCRIPTION
1.1 INTRODUCTION
El Niño, La Niña and the Southern Oscillation make up what is called ENSO. El Niño and the Southern Oscillation is a very complicated, dynamic cycle that has been intensively studied by the academic and civic sectors since the exceptional El Niño event of 1982-83 - the strongest in over a century. However, the origins of ENSO can be traced back many centuries through historical and geological records.
El Niño and the Southern Oscillation is a combination of interrelated oceanic and atmospheric processes that occurs every two to seven years. The Southern Oscillation refers to the flip-flop of atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western halves of the equatorial Pacific. Although the Southern Oscillation and El Niño are closely related, El Niño may occur independently or at the same time as a Southern Oscillation. When the two coincide, however, the result is an extreme global atmospheric and oceanographic event.
Before studying the impact, the technology or the institutional organizations involved with ENSO events, a sufficient understanding of the physical parameters and dynamics of normal and abnormal conditions is needed. This discussion provides a basic understanding of the ENSO phenomenon but avoids lapsing into unnecessary technical detail of an extremely complex issue. For further detail consult the references provided.
1.2 HISTORY
1.2.1 PREHISTORY
1.2.1.1 INTRODUCTION
Climatic variability and predictability are issues for modern human life. In the geological record, as in early records of primitive cultures, droughts and floods played an important role in shaping culture. Extreme weather variations disrupt society and cause difficulties for everyone, regardless of their nationality or social class.
The ENSO phenomenon is attracting attention from many scientists around the world and has become a “hot” topic in the last five to ten years. A particular recent concern, both popular and scientific, is whether the apparently unusual ENSO behavior of the
Summer Session Program 2000 ISU • ISU • 3 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution past two decades is due to human-induced changes in the climate system or is consistent with natural variability.
These questions are difficult to solve based on the instrumental record of ENSO, which is only some 130 years long at best. However, the ENSO phenomenon has been around for many centuries and fortunately many other records have been kept. These records reflect the correlation between ENSO and climatic variations. ENSO varies in regular cycles, every 3 to 5 years on average, and this variability is clearly seen on several markers discussed below.
Changes in ENSO during prehistoric times have been discovered in the last decade. As Cane et al [2000] mention, there is evidence of the ENSO phenomenon throughout the Holocene, the current geological period. The Holocene began after the last ice age, 11,000 years ago. While many scientists have offered theories on climate change and variability, interpretations are often contradictory and have been the topic of much debate.
1.2.1.2 Origin of ENSO, MIOCENE Era (23 MILLION YEARS AGO TO 5 MILLION YEARS AGO)
The Atacama Desert, in northern Chile, suffered climate change related to the tectonic plate shifts that formed the Panama Isthmus. When this happened significant changes in ocean currents and wind circulation took place. Currents that originally flowed freely between the Caribbean Sea and the Pacific Ocean were cut off, transforming weather in the Pacific coast of ancestral South America. The arid to semi-arid conditions of the Atacama desert in the early Miocene changed to hyper-arid conditions during the Middle Miocene, about 15 million years ago. That climatic desiccation, or extreme drying, caused specific minerals (supergene copper-sulfide) to stop being produced at the site of the La Escondida Mine in northern Chile and elsewhere in the Atacama region [Alpers & Brimhall, 1988].
The climate has not changed significantly in the Atacama desert since then, as evidence of the hydrothermal alteration of minerals at La Escondida Mine site and dated weathering profiles shows. Thus, it can be inferred that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon began to occur 13 million years ago.
1.2.1.3 PRE-HISTORIC EVIDENCE OF EL NIÑO
According to Sandweiss et al [1999 and 1996], geoarcheological evidence from the Peruvian coast suggests that ENSO, as currently defined, did not occur between 8900 and 5800 years ago. Other paleoclimatic records, including faunal records (shells and fish), Andean ice cores, coral records, lake sediment records, pollen data and changes in mollusk distribution, from the Pacific basin support this suggestion. Modern conditions were established only 5800 years ago.
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1.2.1.4 EVIDENCE FROM CORAL REEFS
Studies of modern reefs and their inter-relationship with known past climatic conditions aid in finely correlating investigations of older corals with previous climate cycles. Seasonal changes in sea surface temperature are well recorded in some coral colonies. Special isotopes of oxygen and carbon serve as global geothermometers. According to Cane et al [2000], comparison of stable oxygen isotope records from living and Holocene corals on the north coast of Papua New Guinea reveals variability in ENSO during the Holocene period.
In many ways, tropical corals from the Pacific Ocean constitute the best natural climate records available. They grow in the core ENSO region and provide continuous evidence of climate. Their growth can be seen in layers, similar to tree rings, and the definition between the layers is called resolution. Their annual to sub-annual resolution captures ENSO’s seasonal and interannual variability. “Isotopic signals in these corals are known to be good proxies for sea surface temperature (SST), or, at least, a combination of SST and rainfall. Even the combination is a rather direct measure of ENSO” [Cane et al, 2000].
“This region [the north coast of Papua New Guinea] of the far western Equatorial Pacific experiences relative drought and lowered sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during the El Niño phase of the Southern Oscillation. These climatic factors are recorded in the oxygen isotopic composition of the skeletons of corals growing in nearby reefs, with isotopically heavy skeleton deposited during the dry and cool El Niño events. Consequently, isotopic analysis of the annually banded skeletons of large living and “fossil” massive corals in the area can shed light on variations in frequency and strength of ENSO.” [Cane et al, 2000]
The radiocarbon (14C) content of surface waters inferred from a coral record from the Galapagos Islands increased abruptly during the upwelling season (July-September) after the El Niño event of 1976. Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) associated with the upwelling season also shifted after 1976. The shift in both 14C and SST is synchronized and implies that the vertical thermal structure of the eastern tropical Pacific changed in 1976. This change may be responsible for the increase in frequency and intensity of El Niño events since 1976 [Guilderson & Schrag, 1998; Woodroffe & Gagan, 2000].
Ongoing research teams worldwide are advancing work to establish a global program for the correlation of coral reef climate records. International cooperation in this field may help to understand the phenomenon and its temporal dimension more precisely. Fossil records of the past three to four million years might yield important knowledge to better evaluate and monitor ENSO.
1.2.1.5 CHANGES IN ENSO ACTIVITY DURING THE HOLOCENE (FROM 11,000 YEARS AGO, TO THE PRESENT)
A glacier lake in Ecuador contains storm-induced sand and mud depositional events that were triggered by El Niño cycles. During strong rains, sand and silt (coarse materials)
Summer Session Program 2000 ISU • ISU • 5 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution were deposited in the bottom of the lake, while normal flow into the lake deposited clays. In fact, deposits in the lake precisely match historical records of El Niño events. From about 15,000 to about 7,000 years ago, the periods of sand-clay deposition are greater than or equal to 15 years. This means that very strong rains, associated with El Niño events, took place once every fifteen years. After that, there is a progressive increase in frequency to periods of two to eight and a half years for the very strong rain periods that are reflected by coarse grains in lakebeds. This is a modern El Niño cycle, which was established about 5,000 years ago. Such a change in the cycles of heavy rains may reflect the onset of a steeper zonal sea surface temperature gradient (larger range of variability in sea surface temperature), which was driven by enhanced trade winds [Rodbell et al,1999].
The archaeological site of Quebrada Tacahuay, Peru dates to 12,700 to 12,500 years ago. It contains some of the oldest evidence of maritime-based economic activity in the New World. “Sediments below and above the occupation layer were probably generated by El Niño events, indicating that El Niño was active during the Pleistocene as well as during the early and middle Holocene” [Keefer et al, 1998].
1.2.2 RECORDED HISTORY
1.2.2.1 INTRODUCTION
South American archaeologists have found many Pre-Columbian traces of negative natural events. A common myth in many pre-Columbian indigenous cultures along the Pacific coast of South America refers to a primeval deluge that lasted many days and nights and flooded most of the land. The only survivors were those who fled to the peaks of high mountains during the flood.
The impact of natural phenomena on early pre-Hispanic cultures must have been large. For example, the Mochica culture in coastal Peru (sometimes referred to as Moche) disappeared between 600-800 AD due to floods and other environmental problems now associated with El Niño. Much later, Mapuche Indians of Central Chile referred to an “evil” that came from the northern invasion by Incas and later by European conquistadors. Other natural “evils” that took the form of earthquakes, hurricanes, volcanoes, eruptions and/or very heavy rainfall came from the east and could be linked with El Niño events. Spanish conquerors and their missionaries were systematically trying to replace the traditional beliefs of the Indians by Catholicism, making it very difficult to use residual Indian traditions and folklore to improve our knowledge of the exact impact of climate on society during pre-Columbian times [San Martin, 2000].
1.2.2.2 FIRST RECORDED HISTORY
The first historical records of an El Niño event appear in 1525-1526. Evidence appears in the campaign logs of the Spanish Conquistador Francisco Pizarro. When Pizarro arrived along the Peruvian coast with his troops, the climate was especially humid. This enabled him to find food and water. However, it seems that during most years, food and
6 • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution water were not available in this part of Peru, where it only rains approximately every seven years. Pizarro and his troops were fortunate to begin their enterprise in the best time possible, linked with an El Niño event [Sears, 1895].
Historical records refer also to 1567. Fishermen along the Pacific coast of northern Peru began to notice changes in fish abundance and species. Millions of sea birds washed up on the beaches as the normal amount of anchovies significantly reduced. Gatherers of guano, bird dung used as fertilizer, fell on hard times as birds quit depositing nutrient- rich droppings. At the same time, sailors observed changes in coastal currents and rainfall and farmers noticed torrential rains in the typically arid regions.
Peruvian sailors were the first to give a name to the phenomenon. Normally the waters they fished in were cold and flowed from south to north. But in certain years, water would reverse its flow and become very warm. The fish food chain then collapsed and the year would be a write-off for the fishermen. Since warming often peaked in December, in the 1890s this event was dubbed "El Niño" in honor of "the Christ child" [USRA/ESSE, 2000].
1.2.3 EVOLUTION OF ENSO RESEARCH
1.2.3.1 ORIGINAL RESEARCH
SIR GILBERT WALKER
At the turn of the 20th century, scientists still believed this phenomenon occurred independently of any other weather patterns. In 1904, while South American scientists were documenting the local effects of El Niño, Sir Gilbert Walker, a British scientist and head of the Indian Meteorological Service, was asked to try to figure out how to predict India's monsoon fluctuations after the monsoon of 1899, an El Niño year, brought famine.
Walker sorted through world weather records describing sea levels from just before the turn of the century. He recognized some patterns of rainfall in South America and associated them with changes in ocean temperatures and also found a connection between barometer readings at stations on the eastern and western sides of the Pacific, Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. He saw a pressure swing between South America and India-Australia and noticed that when pressure rose in the east, it usually fell in the west, and vice versa. Walker coined the term “Southern Oscillation” to describe the ups and downs in this east-west seesaw in southern Pacific pressure. The pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin is called the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) because of Walker’s research. He also realized that Asian monsoon seasons under certain barometric conditions were often linked to drought in Australia, Indonesia, India, and parts of Africa and mild winters in western Canada [Mayell, 1997].
As the first person to claim that there was a connection between monsoons in India and unusually mild winters in Canada, Walker was publicly criticized for suggesting that climatic conditions over such widely separated regions of the globe could be linked. He
Summer Session Program 2000 ISU • ISU • 7 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution conceded that he couldn't prove his theory, but predicted that whatever was causing the connection in weather patterns would become clear once wind patterns above ground level, which were not routinely being observed at that time, were factored into the equation [Mayell, 1997].
JACOB BJERKNES
Fifty years later, in the 1960s, Jacob Bjerknes, a Norwegian meteorologist and professor at the University of California, was the first to see a connection between unusually warm sea-surface temperatures, weak easterly winds and heavy rainfall that accompany low- index conditions.
He pointed out the empirical relationship between the atmosphere and the tropical Pacific and proposed a two-way coupling between the ocean and atmosphere. His idea developed from observations of large-scale anomalies in the atmosphere and tropical Pacific Ocean during 1957-1958, an El Niño year. Bjerknes named the zonal pressure gradient associated with the specific equatorial circulation the “Walker Circulation". He felt that fluctuations in this circulation initiated pulses in Walker's Southern Oscillation.
Jacob Bjerknes referred to the oceanic and atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific as a "chain reaction". He provided an explanation for the association of the low phase of the Southern Oscillation with El Niño, as well as the association of the high phase with normal cold state of the eastern Pacific.
Ultimately, Jacob Bjerknes’ discovery led to the recognition that the warm waters of El Niño and the pressure seesaw of Walker's Southern Oscillation are part of the same phenomenon, referred to by the acronym ENSO. El Niño combined with Southern Oscillation reflects Jacob Bjerknes’ finding that the entire phenomenon depended on an interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean, as Walker had predicted fifty years earlier [Mayell, 1997].
KLAUS WYRTKI
The first attempts to determine the predictability of ENSO were an important step. Klaus Wyrtki, a US scientist of German origin and a professor of oceanography at the University of Hawaii, is a pioneer in climate research and prediction and built on the work of Walker and Bjerknes. In 1975, Wyrtki made Pacific-wide observation of sea level and ship winds and found that sea level first falls in the western Pacific after being unusually high prior to the El Niño event [Enfield, 1989].
According to David Enfield [1989] “concurrently with and immediately following Wyrtki’s work, numerical modelers showed how the ocean response worked.” From 1976, a number of models were developed leading to additional results and further progress.
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1.2.3.2 CURRENT TRENDS
Interest in ENSO intensified in the late 1960s and early 1970s Using new observations including satellite data, climatologists and oceanographers recognized that the effects of El Niño were much more important than they thought. Over succeeding years scientists had studied more El Niño events and statistically linked warm water to increased rainfall in southeastern United States and to droughts in Indonesia, Australia, Ethiopia, and Zimbabwe. El Niño also seemed to reduce hurricanes in the Atlantic, while increasing them in the eastern Pacific.
The 1982-1983 El Niño caught scientists by surprise. Unlike El Niños of the previous three decades, it was not preceded by a period of stronger than normal easterlies on the equator, and it took place later in the calendar year than usual. Its effects on the climate couldn't be missed. Sea surface west of Peru was as much as 4°C warmer than average during the southern hemisphere summer. There were torrential rains in normally arid regions of this country, and floods in southern California North America in general experienced wildly unusual weather throughout 1983, and Australia experienced massive drought and devastating bushfires. It was one of the worst periods of drought in sub-Sahelian African countries and there were no monsoons in the Indian Ocean [Mayell, 1997].
After extremely harsh conditions in 1982-1983, there was a minor respite, followed by El Niños in 1986-1987. In 1988-1989, there was a cold phase, an event called “La Niña”, which occurs after some but not all, El Niño years. The media gave this name, which means “the girl” in Spanish, to the periods of anomalously cold equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). From 1990 to mid-1995 there was the longest El Niño period in 130 years of record keeping.
The 1997-1998 El Niño was the first to be predicted in advance. Many resources were devoted to tracking it, preparing for the climate event of the century. On this occasion, a lot of efforts were made by concerned scientists and institutions to raise the alarm, thus awakening more reactions in the scientific, technical and economic press, as well as in the general press. These efforts led decision makers to become more aware of the negative effects of the phenomenon and the considerable cost it represents for the global community. It also increased awareness in the general public. All of this has made possible an increased and more collective effort to put greater resources towards ENSO research and aim at more coordination and efficiency when trying to mitigate the negative effects of the phenomenon.
1.3 NORMAL CLIMATIC CONDITIONS
There is no exact definition of “normal conditions.” However, for the purpose of describing El Niño/La Niña phenomena it is necessary to define our understanding of normality. Normal is what is expected but normal also includes the extremes. Both are included within “normal meteorology”. For this reason, normal conditions can be very difficult to define and isolate from other special meteorological states. Normally the
Summer Session Program 2000 ISU • ISU • 9 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution average is included as well as sharp deviations from the average. Over time different meteorological phenomena over the South Pacific coastal area repeat.
Figure 1-1 Normal Conditions
Source: NOAA/PMEL/TAO Project
A convection cell, an unstable section of air, is driven by heat at the ocean surface. Water from the surface evaporates and the warm, moist water rises, pulling in cool, dry air, and creating a loop that transfers heat and moisture out of the hot zone (Figure 1-1).
We can summarize normal conditions as:
Low pressure over Indonesia (pressure gradient)
Strong trade winds
Weak counter current (against the natural ocean current)
Upwelling of cold nutrient rich waters off Peru and the western United States
Warm water in the west and cooler water in the east
Storms concentrated in the west over warm water
In normal, non-El Niño conditions, strong trade winds blow towards the west across the tropical Pacific. These winds pile up warm surface water in the west Pacific, so that sea surface is about half a meter higher at Indonesia than at Ecuador. The sea surface temperature is about 8°C higher in the west, with cool temperatures off South America, due to upwelling of cold water from deeper levels, especially near Peru and California. This cold water is nutrient-rich, supporting high levels of primary productivity (the carbon- based life in the ocean), diverse marine ecosystems, and major fisheries. Rainfall is found in rising air over the warmest water, and the east Pacific is relatively dry [NOAA/PEL/TAO, 1998].
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On June 2, 2000 the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) (nsipp.gsfc.nasa.gov/) said:
“After dominating the tropical Pacific Ocean for more than two years, the 1998-2000, La Niña has all but disappeared from the tropical Pacific. At present there is no cold anomaly greater than 1 degree Celsius at the surface in the Equatorial Pacific, and at times the areas most usually associated with La Niña have actually been warmer than normal. It just doesn't get any more normal than this at the surface. Below the surface, the cold anomalies continue to weaken.”
1.3.1 ATMOSPHERE
It is important to have a clear understanding of important factors of the atmosphere and ocean, their interaction, and local climatology along the Pacific coast of South America to understand ENSO. To illustrate the normal conditions of the different parameters we use satellite and in situ data of August 2000.
There are pressure differences along the Equator between the higher-pressure systems located on the eastern and western parts of the South Pacific. This pressure difference produces east to west sea surface wind circulation along the Equator. Both easterly winds that blow along the Equator and southerly winds that blow along the South American coast tend to drag the water along with it.
1.3.1.1 AIR PRESSURE
Sir Gilbert Walker provided an important clue concerning El Niño when he discovered that air pressures at sea level in the South Pacific seesaw back and forth between two distinct patterns. In the "high index" phase of what Walker referred to as the "Southern Oscillation", pressure is higher (darker grey) near and to the east of Tahiti than farther to the west of Darwin, Australia (Figure 1-2).
Figure 1-2 Air pressure during normal conditions, darker grey indicates higher pressure
Source: University of Illinois/Dept. of Atmospheric Science
The east-west pressure difference along the Equator causes surface air to flow westward, as indicated by the long arrow. When the atmosphere switches into the "low
Summer Session Program 2000 ISU • ISU • 11 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution index" phase (lower map) barometers rise in the west and fall in the east, signaling a reduction, or even a reversal of the pressure difference between Darwin and Tahiti. The flattening of the seesaw causes the easterly surface winds to weaken and retreat eastward [U.S./CEPP, 1998].
1.3.1.2 SEA SURFACE WINDS
The global wind pattern is also known as the "general circulation" and the surface winds of each hemisphere are divided into three wind belts (Figure 1-3):
Polar Easterlies: From 60-90 latitude.
Prevailing Westerlies: From 30-60 latitude (also known as Westerlies).
Tropical Easterlies: From 0-30 latitude (also known as Trade Winds).
Figure 1-3 Global winds patterns Source: University of Illinois/DAS
The easterly trade winds of both hemispheres converge near the Equator at an area called the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), producing a narrow band of clouds and thunderstorms that cover portions of the globe.
As shown in Figure 1-4, during normal conditions easterly winds blow along the Equator and southeasterly winds that blow along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador both tend to drag surface water along with them. The Earth's rotation then deflects the resulting surface currents toward the right (northward) in the Northern Hemisphere and to the left (southward) in the Southern Hemisphere. Surface waters are therefore deflected away from the Equator in both directions and away from the coastline. Where surface water moves away, colder, nutrient-rich water comes up from below to replace it, a phenomenon known as upwelling. Both the equatorial upwelling and the coastal upwelling are concentrated in narrow regions less than 130 km (100 miles) wide.
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Figure 1-4 Example of sea surface winds (m/s) during normal conditions. Source: TAO Project Office/PMEL/NOAA
1.3.1.3 PRECIPITATION
Over the eastern Pacific, northeast and southeast trade winds flow around and out of subtropical anticyclones (high pressure areas) at low levels, and into a convergence zone just north of the Equator. A second convergence zone extends across the South Pacific from northwest to southeast. Within each zone the converging surface air rises, producing clouds and abundant rainfall, and then flows back toward the poles at high altitudes. As the trade winds are the major circulation feature over the eastern Pacific, a great monsoon circulation dominates the western Pacific. In the monsoon, the low-level air flows across the Equator from the winter to the summer hemisphere. There it rises, produces clouds and abundant rainfall, and then flows back into the winter hemisphere at high levels [NOAA/CDC, 2000].
1.3.1.4 SOUTHERN OSCILLATION INDEX - SOI
The Southern Oscillation implies an incremental increase in pressure at stations in the Pacific, while pressure in the region of the Indian Ocean decreases.
Scientists often monitor the Southern Oscillation by comparing air pressures at Darwin, Australia with those at Papeete, Tahiti. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is based on the difference between pressures at these two locations (Figure 1-5). SOI is positive when the pressure is above normal in the eastern Pacific and below normal in the western Pacific [U.S./CEPP, 1998].
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Figure 1-5 SOI definition. Source: University of Columbia
Persistent high values of the index are associated with La Niña events (Figure 1-6). SOI becomes negative and remains negative during El Niño events. The terms ENSO and ENSO cycle are used to describe the full range of variability observed in the Southern Oscillation Index, including both El Niño and La Niña events.
Figure 1-6 Southern Oscillation Index. Source: University of Wisconsin-Madison
1.3.1.5 AIR TEMPERATURE
Air temperature is mainly affected by two factors. One is the sea surface temperature and the other is the temperature of the winds aloft. Sea surface temperature in the Southern Hemisphere as a rule gets warmer as we go from the south towards the Equator and from the Pacific coastal area of South America towards the western South Pacific.
During normal conditions air temperature of the Western Pacific is very warm, with common temperature greater than 28°C (82°F) (Figure 1-7). Air temperature of the eastern Pacific, in contrast, is among the coldest found near the Equator, and can be as cool as 20°C (68°F).
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Figure 1-7 Air temperature (ºC) and surface winds (m/s) during August 7 2000. Source: TAO Project Office/PMEL/NOAA
1.3.2 OCEAN
1.3.2.1 SEA TEMPERATURE
The tropical Pacific Ocean is composed by three distinct layers - a shallow, warm, well- mixed layer overlies a deep cold, stratified layer. The transition zone in between these layers is called the thermocline. Within the thermocline water temperature decreases very rapidly with increasing depth. The warm layer is about 200 meters (656 feet) deep in the western Pacific, but it is typically only 50 meters (164 feet) deep, or less, in the eastern Pacific.
Figure 1-8 Sea surface temperature (ºC) during normal conditions. Source TAO Project Office/PMEL/NOAA
Surface water of the western Pacific is very warm, with common temperatures greater than 28°C (82F). Surface water of the Eastern Pacific, in contrast, is among the coldest found near the Equator, and can be as cool as 20°C (68F) (Figure 1-8).
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Figure 1-9 Vertical profiles of mean and anomalous temperature (average of 2ºS to 2ºN range) during August 7, 2000. Source: TAO Project Office/PMEL/NOAA
The thermocline, or boundary layer between warm surface water and colder underlying water, is tilted up to the east (Figure 1-9 and Figure 1-10).
Figure 1-10 Five-day 20ºC Isotherm depth (m) and winds (m/s) during normal conditions. Source: TAO Project Office/PMEL/NOAA
Several reasons account for water temperature. The Humboldt current drags cold water from higher latitudes near the South Pole, along the South American coast towards the
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Equator. Also, the sun warms that water as it travels north along the coastal area. The same can be said regarding water temperature moving away from the coast along the Equator in a westerly direction. Upwelling is yet another factor. As wind pushes towards the Equator, the Coriolis effect (see below) adds a westward component to its flow. While surface water moves away from the coast, sub-surface water rises to replace it. This cold upwelled water is very rich in nutrients and can have high oxygen content. As warm water accumulates in the western Pacific it depresses the thermocline. Since warm water is less dense than cold water, a deeper layer of warm water is required to produce the same hydrostatic pressure (pressure in non-moving water) as a layer of cold water. In the eastern Pacific westward transport of warm surface water by the trade winds causes the thermocline to rise towards the surface.
1.3.2.2 CORIOLIS EFFECT
Upwelling of cold sub-surface water near the South American coast causes the contrast between warm western Pacific surface water and cold eastern Pacific water. This water is brought to surface by a combination of persistent southerly winds along the coast and the Coriolis effect that results from the earth’s rotation [NOAA/CDC, 2000].
The Coriolis effect is the apparent deflection of a moving object to the right in the Northern Hemisphere, or to the left in the Southern Hemisphere, resulting from rotation of the earth. This effect is due to the fact that the observer’s reference system is rotating. The speed of the object is not affected; only its apparent direction of motion. Thus, water flows down a drain in a clockwise direction in the Northern Hemisphere and counter- clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere.
As the wind pushes the water towards the Equator, the Coriolis effect adds a westerly component to its flow. As surface water moves away from the coast, sub-surface water rises to replace it. This cold upwelled water is very rich in nutrients and can have high oxygen content. Marine life is very abundant in such cold upwelling water. As surface water flows westward from the South American coast, additional sub-surface waters along the Equator maintain a tongue of cold water across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [NASA/USRA, 2000].
1.3.2.3 UPWELLING
Equatorial Upwelling. Easterly winds (straight arrow) drag the surface water westward along the Equator (Figure 1-11). The Earth's rotation (Coriolis Effect) drives surface water away from the Equator and brings up water from below (upward arrows). In addition, the wind causes warm surface water to accumulate on the western side of the Pacific. Because warm water has lower density, the sea level is about 60 cm (2 feet) higher on the western side of the basin than on the eastern side when the winds are blowing at full strength. The thermocline marks the boundary between warm surface water and cold deep water (black), and almost reaches the surface in the eastern Equatorial Pacific [Wallace & Vogel, 1994].
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Figure 1-11 Equatorial upwelling. Source: Figure 1-12 Coastal upwelling. Source: Wallace & Vogel Wallace & Vogel
Coastal Upwelling. Strong southeasterly wind (light grey arrow) prevails along the coast of southern Ecuador and Peru (Figure 1-12). This wind, which blows both during normal and El Niño years, drags surface water northwestward, causing upwelling of cold nutrient-rich water (black) along the eastern Pacific coast [Wallace & Vogel, 1994].
1.3.2.4 SEA SURFACE HEIGHT
Under the influence of the trade winds, sea level in the western Pacific is normally about 50 cm (20 inches) higher than in the eastern Pacific. As warm water accumulates in the western Pacific, the thermocline descends.
1.3.2.5 PHYTOPLANKTON
Cold water below the thermocline is rich in chemical nutrients. Wherever the thermocline is shallow enough, stirring by the wind mixes nutrient-rich water with surface water. In the presence of sunlight, tiny plant species called phytoplankton use the nutrients to produce a green plant substance called chlorophyll. Explosively growing "blooms" of phytoplankton use up all the available nutrients within a week, at which time they die and sink. During their brief lifetime in the sun they are visible in satellite images as green patches of water, which serve as markers for places where upwelling is bringing nutrients to the surface. Without the constant upwelling replenishing the surface water above the thermocline, it would soon become devoid of nutrients.
After the advent of satellite remote sensors, a unique view from space has helped researchers watch an intense biological seesaw, a previously unobserved swing in the oceanic food chain across a huge swath of the Pacific, which in turn produced extreme changes in the amount of carbon dioxide being released into the atmosphere.
During normal conditions higher chlorophyll levels are found in the tropical and eastern Pacific (Figure 1-13), this high productivity is generated by the nutrient-rich cold waters upwelled to the surface. These waters are favorable for anchovy, an abundant product along the Peruvian and northern Chile coast.
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Figure 1-13 SeaWiFS Chlorophyll a concentration (mg/m3) during July 2000.
Source: SeaWiFS Project/GSFC/NASA
1.3.3 ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC INTERACTION
Both circulations and currents affect the South American Coast and play an important role during normal conditions and El Niño/La Niña events.
THE WALKER CIRCULATION
The Walker circulation in the Pacific consists of air rising over the west Pacific around Indonesia, west winds in the upper troposphere, sinking air off the west coast of South America, and east winds near the surface. In near-meridianal circulation in the troposphere, the easterly trade winds are part of the low-level component of the Walker circulation. Typically, the trade winds bring warm moist air towards the Indonesian region. Here, moving over normally very warm seas, moist air rises to high levels of the atmosphere. The air then travels eastward before sinking over the Eastern Pacific Ocean. The rising air is associated with a region of low air pressure, towering cumulonimbus clouds and rain. High pressure and dry conditions accompany the sinking air.
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Figure 1-14 Global Surface Currents
Source NOAA
THE HADLEY CIRCULATION
The Hadley circulation is a large-scale meridianal circulation in the Earth’s atmosphere, with a rising motion over the equatorial regions and a descending motion in the subtropics. Near the equinoxes, in March and September, the circulation tends on the average to be equatorially symmetrical, with upward motion centered on the Equator and descent to both the north and the south. However, near the solstices in June and December the circulation is equatorially asymmetric, with rising motion concentrated in the summer hemisphere and descent in the winter hemisphere resulting from strong heating at the Equator. Convection currents create four Hadley cells on a rotating planet, which are characterized by strong prograde, or counterclockwise, flow near the surface at high latitudes and retrograde, or clockwise, flow near the surface at low latitudes. The cells form when heated air rises and forms northward and southward upward cells.
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is a persistent east-west band of convection that typically occurs away from the Equator over warm regions of the tropical oceans. The ITCZ is the upward branch of the Hadley circulation, so to understand one is to understand the other.
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THE HUMBOLDT CURRENT
The Humboldt Current brings relatively cold water northward along the Pacific coast of South America, from south to north. The cold water, coming from near Antarctica, then flows westward along the Equator and the tropical sun heats it. These normal conditions make the western Pacific about 4°C to 10°C (7°F to 18°F) warmer than the eastern Pacific.
These general circulations and currents experience a change in their pattern during the events of El Niño and La Niña.
1.3.4 LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY
It is also critical to understand the local climatological conditions along the Pacific coast of South America. This includes the land going from about 56°S to 8°N across the countries of Chile, Peru, Ecuador and Colombia. Of these four, only Colombia is in the Northern hemisphere. The coastal areas of these four countries and the interaction between the waters and winds along the Pacific coast will be the focus. It is difficult to study such a large extension of land because the local meteorology is very diverse and affected by different factors. Rather than going into detail for each country, the local climatology of this strip will be examined.
For the sake of ease, this territory is divided into three parts. The first, the southern region, consists of the south part of Chile, from about 56°S, Cabo de Hornos, to 38°S, at the city of Concepcion. The second part, the central region, runs from about 38°S in Concepcion, to about 8°S, the city of Trujillo in Peru. This area is very long and covers all central and northern Chile to northern Peru. The last area - the northern region - starts at 8°S, Trujillo in Peru, to about 7°N, crossing the Equator to Medellin in Colombia.
THE SOUTHERN REGION (CHILE, FROM CABO DE HORNOS TO CONCEPCION) South America Map. Source: Magellan Westerly Pacific winds and the Humboldt current affect the southern area. These
Summer Session Program 2000 ISU • ISU • 21 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution westerly winds flow across the lower South Pacific towards the South Pacific Coast of South America, to a latitude of about 50°S. Once there, they split in three main directions. The first one flows southeast towards the South Pole. Another goes through in the same latitude, but towards the East, unchanged in direction. The last one, that will affect the climatology in the rest of the continent, blows northbound towards the Equator following the South American coast. The sea currents do the same - they follow the general directions of these winds. In this area the precipitation is abundant and local convection is present. There is precipitation in this area during all months of the year. Precipitation is similar through the higher latitudes to about 44°S, where it starts to diminish. Also in this area between 44°S and 38°S precipitation is concentrated during the winter months of June, July and August.
THE CENTRAL REGION (FROM CONCEPCION, CHILE TO TRUJILLO, PERU)
The central area has the largest territory of the three, covering all of central and northern Chile and almost all of Peru. This area is affected by a temperature inversion. A temperature inversion occurs in the atmosphere, normally in the lower atmosphere, within 3,000 meters (about 10,000 feet) of the surface. Normally, the temperature of a parcel of air starts to cool as soon as it leaves contact with the surface because the air above that parcel of air is normally cooler that the air below. Warmer air is less dense than colder air due to expansion. As the parcel of air finds cooler air aloft, it keeps rising until it finds warmer or same temperature air. In the atmosphere, air cools on a fixed gradient between the surface and about 13,000 meters (about 42,000 feet) where temperature becomes stable for several thousand meters. As this parcel of air rises, its water vapor cools down and condensation occurs. The condensed water continues to rise producing vertical convection. At higher altitudes the frozen water becomes too heavy to be lifted anymore. This heavy water begins to fall, producing rain on its way down. This process repeats itself several times and at various levels of the atmosphere as it falls towards the surface. This produces clouds - the more humidity in the atmosphere the more clouds will be produced.
A humidity gradient and an unstable atmosphere are needed to have rain at the surface. One of the factors needed to obtain an unstable atmospheric situation is a parcel of air that keeps rising through the atmosphere. An inversion of temperature occurs when this parcel of air can’t rise because it finds a warmer parcel of air above it.
What occurs along the Chilean and Peruvian coast is that the water is colder than the winds aloft. The water is also colder than water in similar latitudes in other parts of the world. The winds flowing near the sea surface are affected by the temperature of the waters, so are therefore cold. The winds above those, about 1,000 meters (about 3,300 feet) are sub-tropical winds, warmer winds than the ones below. That causes the temperature inversion along this second part of land. The vapor condenses and creates clouds that are very stable; therefore the atmosphere is stable and doesn’t have convection and precipitation. This situation is typical of central and north Chile and Peru. The precipitation is not the same all along this area, but rather minimal as we get closer to the northern part of Chile and all the Peruvian coast, especially the south and central coastal areas of Peru.
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THE NORTHERN REGION (FROM TRUJILLO, PERU TO MEDELLIN, COLOMBIA)
This area has a subtropical and near tropical meteorological conditions. However it is also very affected by the inversion of temperature due to the colder water and warmer winds blowing aloft. Precipitation is more abundant than in the previous area of higher latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. The coastal areas receive more precipitation than the inland areas as a result of the circulations around the Equator.
1.4 EL NIÑO
El Niño is a disruption of the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific having important consequences for weather around the globe.
These consequences include increased rainfall across the western coast of South America, which causes destructive flooding, and drought in the West Pacific, sometimes associated with devastating bush fires in Australia.
During El Niño conditions the ENSO mechanism is summarized as:
SO (Southern Oscillation) - a decrease in the pressure gradient across the southern equatorial Pacific
Trade winds weaken
Countercurrent strengthens - warm water across the equatorial region
Decreased upwelling - warm low-nutrient waters off Peru
Storm pattern shifts toward the east
Rainfall follows the warm water eastward - flooding in Peru, drought in Indonesia, Australia
During El Niño, the trade winds relax in the central and western Pacific leading to a depression of the thermocline in the eastern Pacific, and an elevation of the thermocline in the west. This reduced the efficiency of upwelling to cool the surface and cut off the supply of nutrient-rich thermocline water to the euphotic zone, the depth to which sunlight penetrates. The result was a rise in sea surface temperature and a drastic decline in primary productivity, the latter of which adversely affected higher trophic levels of the food chain, including commercial fisheries in this region.
The eastward displacement of the atmospheric heat source overlaying the warmest water results in large changes in the global atmospheric circulation, which in turn force changes in weather in regions far removed from the tropical Pacific.
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1.4.1 EL NIÑO CONDITIONS
El Niño is characterized by a large scale weakening of the trade winds and warming of the surface layers in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean. During El Niño, unusually high atmospheric sea level pressures develop in the western tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean regions, and unusually low sea level pressures develop in the southeastern tropical Pacific.
El Niño events occur irregularly at intervals of two to seven years, although the average is about once every three to five years. Events typically last 12-18 months, and are accompanied by swings in the Southern Oscillation (SO).
1.4.2 EVOLUTION OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN
1.4.2.1 EVOLUTION OF WINDS
As described before, in normal, non-El Niño conditions, the trade winds blow towards the west across the tropical Pacific piling up warm surface water to Indonesia and Australia and allowing cooler water to upwell along the South American coast Figure 1-15). The low density of the water cumulated with wind blowing westward, thus the sea surface is about a half meter higher near Indonesia than near Ecuador.
Figure 1-15 Winds and sea temperatures in normal conditions
Image NOAA/PMEL/TAO Project Office
For reasons not yet fully understood, during El Niño these trade winds can sometimes be reduced, or even reversed; there is a change in the pattern of trade winds circulation. These winds begin to blow eastward across the water of the eastern Pacific Ocean near the Equator (Figure 1-16).
24 • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution
Figure 1-16 Winds and sea temperatures during el niño conditions
Image NOAA/PMEL/TAO Project Office
1.4.2.2 AIR PRESSURE
During El Niño years, the Southern Oscillation Index is negative (Figure 1-17).
Figure 1-17 Sea surface temperature (ºC) and southern oscillation index (SOI).
Source: TAO Project Office/PMEL/NOAA
The trade winds relax in the central and western Pacific and warm water stops accumulating in Indonesia and Australia. This increases water density in the western part of Pacific Ocean, depressing the thermocline in the eastern Pacific and elevating it in the west because of a lower atmospheric pressure (Figure 1-18) The observations at
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110W show, for example, that during 1982-1983, the 17° isotherm dropped to a depth of about 150m (500 feet).
Figure 1-18 Evolution of Upwelling, Thermocline and winds
Source: University of ILLINOIS WW2010
1.4.2.3 SEA TEMPERATURES
In normal conditions, sea surface temperature is about 8°C (14°F) higher in the west, with cool temperatures off South America, due to upwelling of cold water from deeper levels. This cold water is nutrient-rich; it supports high levels of primary productivity, diverse marine ecosystems, and major fisheries. Moreover, observations of the sea surface temperatures show that the cool water is within 50m of the surface (Figure 1-19):
Figure 1-19 Sea temperatures in Pacific ocean during normal conditions (1)
Source: Goddard Space flight center
The evolution of the thermocline directly affects sea temperatures because it reduces the efficiency of upwelling to cool the surface, allowing warm waters to go from western to the eastern part of Pacific, as shown below:
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Figure 1-20 Evolution of pacific Figure 1-21 Evolution of pacific Ocean temperature (2) Ocean temperature (3)
Source: Goddard Space flight center
As a consequence, warmer water moves toward the coast of South America (Figure 1-16, Figure 1-20 ,Figure 1-21) raising water temperature. The rise of sea surface temperature in the eastern Pacific cuts off the supply of nutrient-rich thermocline water to the euphotic zone (area of sunlight penetration) and generates a drastic decline in primary productivity, the latter of which adversely affects higher trophic levels of the food chain. Deeper thermocline limits the amount of nutrient-rich deep water tapped by the upwelling processes. These nutrients are vital for sustaining large fish population normally found in this region and any reduction in the supply of nutrients means a reduction in this fish population.
Figure 1-22 Evolution of sea surface temperature (SST) and winds in the Pacific during 1997 El Niño year
Source: TAO Project Office/PMEL/NOAA
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1.4.2.4 RAINFALL
Before El Niño, rainfall occurs in rising air over the warmest water, and the east Pacific is relatively dry.
Figure 1-23 Rainfall in Pacific ocean during normal conditions
Source: University of ILLINOIS WW2010
As El Niño develops, rain follows the evolution of sea temperature and directly impacts the continuation of the phenomenon. Indeed, eastward displacement of the atmospheric heat overlaying warmer water results in large changes in global atmospheric circulation, which in turn forces changes in weather in regions far removed from the tropical Pacific. Rainfall follows the warm water eastward.
Figure 1-24 Rainfall in Pacific ocean during El Niño conditions
Source: University of ILLINOIS WW2010
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El Niño causes all sorts of unusual weather, sometimes bringing rain to coastal deserts of South America that never see rain during non-El Niño years. Flooding often results in swarms of mosquitoes and increased disease risk. Convective clouds and heavy rains are fueled by increased buoyancy of the lower atmosphere resulting from heating by the warmer waters below. As the warmer water shifts eastward, so do the clouds and thunderstorms associated with it, resulting in dry conditions in Indonesia and Australia while more flood-like conditions exist in Peru and Ecuador.
1.4.3 THE CYCLE CONTINUES
The air-sea interactions that occur during an El Niño event feed off of each other. As pressure falls in the east and rises in the west, the surface pressure gradient is reduced and trade winds weaken as shown below:
Figure 1-25 El Niño Condition
Source: TAO Project Office/PMEL/NOAA
This allows more warm surface water to flow eastward, bringing more rain with it, which leads to a further pressure decrease in the east due to latent heat of condensation that warms that the air and the cycle continues (Figure 1-26).
Scientists question whether human-induced climate changes may be producing the observed increase in strength and frequency of El Niño events in recent decades or whether the El Niño events are contributing to global warming. There is no consensus yet and further research is needed before scientists can provide confident answers to these questions.
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Figure 1-26 The El Niño cycle
1.5 LA NIÑA
La Niña is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, as compared to El Niño, which is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the same zone. Typically, La Niña is preceded by a build-up of cooler-than-normal subsurface waters in the tropical Pacific (Figure 1-27). Eastward-moving atmospheric and oceanic waves help bring the cold water to the surface through a complex series of events still being studied. In time, the easterly trade winds strengthen, cold upwelling off Peru and Ecuador intensifies, and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) drop below normal. During the 1988- 89 La Niña, SSTs fell to as much as 4°C (7F) below normal. Both La Niña and El Niño tend to peak during the Northern Hemisphere winter [NOAA, 1998].La Niña, also called El Viejo or the old man, occurs every 4-10 years.
Figure 1-27 La Niña
Source: NOAA/PMEL/TAO Project
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1.5.1 ATMOSPHERE
1.5.1.1 AIR PRESSURE
During La Niña conditions the atmosphere switches into the "high index" phase and the barometers rise in the east and fall in the west. At times ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are colder than normal. These cold episodes, sometimes referred to as La Niña episodes, are characterized by lower than normal pressure over Indonesia and northern Australia and higher than normal pressure over the eastern tropical Pacific (Figure 1-28). This pressure pattern is associated with enhanced near-surface equatorial easterly winds over the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific.
Figure 1-28 Sea level pressure (mb) during January 2000
Source: NOAA-CIRES/Climate Diagnostic Center
1.5.1.2 SEA SURFACE WINDS
During La Niña the trade winds strengthen, shrinking the warm pool and cooling the tropical Pacific (Figure 1-29). Positive anomalies (>2 m/s) occurred in the tropical Pacific during the cold episodes [TOPEX/POSEIDON, 2000].
La Niña is caused when wind blows westward across the water of the eastern Pacific Ocean near the Equator. Cool water is pulled up from below – upwelling - and eventually causes changes in the atmosphere.
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Figure 1-29 Sea surface winds (m/s) during La Niña of January 10 2000
Source: TAO Project Office/PMEL/NOAA
1.5.1.3 PRECIPITATION
Figure 1-30 Precipitable water anomaly (kg/m2) during Januray 2000
Source: NOAA-CIRES/Climate Diagnostic Center
During cold La Niña episodes the normal patterns of tropical precipitation and atmospheric circulation become disrupted. The abnormally cold waters in the equatorial central band of ocean that runs from 2°N latitude to 2°S latitude, give rise to suppressed cloudiness and rainfall in that region especially during the Northern Hemisphere winter and spring seasons (Figure 1-30). At the same time, rainfall is enhanced over Indonesia, Malaysia and northern Australia. Thus, the normal Walker Circulation during winter and spring, which features rising air, cloudiness and rainfall over the region of Indonesia and
32 • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution the western Pacific, and sinking air over the Equatorial eastern Pacific, becomes stronger than normal.
Drier than normal conditions during cold episodes are observed along the west coast of tropical South America, and at subtropical latitudes of North America (Gulf Coast) and South America (southern Brazil to central Argentina) during their respective winter seasons.
Drier than normal conditions during cold episodes are observed along the west coast of tropical South America, and at subtropical latitudes of North America (Gulf Coast) and South America (southern Brazil to central Argentina) during their respective winter seasons.
1.5.1.4 SOUTHERN OSCILLATION INDEX - SOI
During La Niña conditions, positive levels of the SOI index and negative anomaly of the sea surface temperature (SST) are produced (Figure 1-31).
Figure 1-31 Sea surface temperature (ºC) and southern oscillation index (SOI).
Source: TAO Project Office/PMEL/NOAA
1.5.1.5 AIR TEMPERATURE
The air temperature during La Niña conditions in the western Pacific is greater than 28°C (82°F) (Figure 1-32). In the eastern Pacific there are cool temperatures of 20°C (68°F) with a negative anomaly of -4°C (25°F).
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Figure 1-32 Air temperature (ºC) and surface winds (m/s) during January 10, 2000
Source: TAO Project Office/PMEL/NOAA
1.5.2 OCEAN
1.5.2.1 SEA TEMPERATURE
During cold episodes, the colder than normal ocean temperatures in the equatorial central Pacific inhibit the formation of rain-producing clouds over that region (Figure 1-33). The sea surface temperature in the western Pacific can be 8°C (14F) higher, while an upwelling of cold water from below causes cool water temperatures off South America.
Figure 1-33 Sea surface temperature (ºC) during La Niña conditions
Source: TAO Project Office/PMEL/NOAA
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During La Niña, the thermocline tilt increases, rising more in the west and deepening in the east (Figure 1-34 and Figure 1-35).
Figure 1-34 Vertical profile of mean temperature (average 2ºS to 2ºN) and anomalies during January 10, 2000 under La Niña conditions
Source: TAO Project Office/PMEL/NOAA
Figure 1-35 Five-day 20ºC Isotherm depth (m) and winds (m/s) during La Niña
Source: TAO Project Office/PMEL/NOAA
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1.5.2.2 SEA SURFACE HEIGHT
The low sea level or cold pool of water along the Equator (COLD area in (Figure 1-36) commonly referred to as La Niña, still dominates the equatorial Pacific Ocean Scientists say this La Niña, which first appeared in May through June 1998, still persists although it is slowly weakening [TOPEX/POSEIDON, 2000].
Figure 1-36 Sea surface height (cm) during La Niña conditions
Source: TOPEX/POSEIDON/SPL/NASA
A giant horseshoe pattern of higher than normal sea-surface heights developing over the last year is beginning to dominate the entire western Pacific and Asiatic oceans.
Scientists studying the new data believe these abnormally warm ocean temperatures, which contrast with a cool La Niña, may be part of a larger, longer-lasting climate pattern.
"In contrast with the more spectacular but shorter duration El Niño and La Niña events, this multiple-year trend may be part of a decade-long pattern known as the Pacific decadal oscillation," said Dr. William Patzert, oceanographer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. "The persistence of these abnormally high and low Pacific sea-surface patterns, along with warmer and colder than average ocean temperatures, tells us there is much more than an isolated La Niña occurring in the Pacific Ocean” [TOPEX/POSEIDON, 2000].
1.5.2.3 PHYTOPLANKTON
Using NASA's Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) satellite, researchers watched chlorophyll levels plunge to the lowest ever recorded in January 1997, during a
36 • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution strong El Niño (Figure 1-37). The observations then revealed the largest bloom of microscopic algae ever seen in the region, when La Niña took over (Figure 1-38). La Niña is caused when wind blows westward across the water of the eastern Pacific Ocean near the Equator.
Researchers suppose that elevated iron concentrations stimulated the intense bloom, a result of the increased upwelling associated with La Niña.
Figure 1-37 SeaWiFS chlorophyll a concentration (mg/m3) during El Niño conditions in January 1998.
Figure 1-38 SeaWiFS chlorophyll a concentration (mg/m3) during La Niña conditions in January 2000.
"With SeaWiFS in orbit, we were able to see for the first time not only the vast size and intensity of the ocean's biological rebound from El Niño, but also the unbelievable speed of that recovery," said Goddard Space Flight Center oceanographer Gene Feldman, a co-author of the study appearing in the Dec. 10, 1999 issue of the journal Science [SeaWiFS, 2000].
Summer Session Program 2000 ISU • ISU • 37 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution
During La Niña event of January 2000, cold waters upwell more strongly along the west coast of South America, increasing the chlorophyll concentration and the productivity of the area (Figure 1-38).
1.6 SUMMARY
This description of the ENSO phenomenon serves as a physical framework to provide perspective for the remainder of this document, which focuses on the effects of ENSO, the technology used to predict and monitor ENSO and the institutions who deal with the phenomenon along the Pacific coast of South America with an emphasis on Chile.
The atmospheric physics behind ENSO are not linear which makes it very hard to predict [Enfield, 1989]. A specific increase or decrease in an abnormal ocean-atmosphere condition in the Pacific Ocean does not necessarily produce a similar increase or decrease in local meteorological events in a given region. The small degree of linearity that does exist is lessened the farther away from the Pacific Ocean the given region is; Chile, Peru, Ecuador and Columbia experience much more predictable ENSO-related weather conditions than Africa, for example.
While ENSO conditions appear to be a severe departure from normal conditions, ENSO has been in existence for a very long time and thus, is actually “normal” for the planet. The disastrous economic and socio-political effects that will be described in further chapters result mainly from a combination of the recent population/infrastructure boom in the past century and the completely nonlinear, chaotic nature of ENSO that has made prediction almost impossible in the past and very difficult now.
Researchers are continually working to gain a better understanding of the dynamics associated with El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation. Much progress has been made since the 1982-83 warm event took the world by surprise. However, ENSO will undoubtedly continue to be a formidable opponent in the realm of disaster prediction and mitigation.
1.7 REFERENCES
Alpers,CN & Brimhall,GH. (1988) Middle Miocene Climatic Change in the Atacama Desert, Northern Chile: Evidence From Supergene Mineralization at La Escondida. Geological Society of America Bulletin, v. 100, 1640-1656. Appenzeller, C, Stocker,TF, & Anklin,M (1998) North Atlantic Oscillation Dynamics Recorded in Greenland Ice Cores, Science, v. 282, 16 Oct., 446-449. Bjerknes, J. (1966) A possible response of the atmospheric Hadley circulation to equatorial anomalies of ocean temperature. Tellus, 18, 820-829. Burguers,G & Stephenson,DB. (1999) The “Normality” of El Niño. Geophysical Research Letters, v. 26 No. 8, 1027-1030. Cane,MA, Clement,A, Gagan, MK, Ayliffe,LK & Tudhope,S. (2000). ENSO Through the Holocene, Depicted in Corals and a Model Simulation. CLIVAR Exchanges, v. 5 No. 1, 32-37. Centre National D’Etudes Spatiales – National Aeronautics and Space Administration – Jet Propulsion Laboratory. (2000). Observing the Oceans From Space – Watching for El Niño, 6 p. booklet. Chavez, FP, Strutton, PG, Friederich, GE, Feely, RA, Feldman,GC, Foley, DG & McPhaden, MJ. (1999). Biological and Chemical Response of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean to the 1997-98 El Niño. Science, v. 286, 10 Dec., 2126- 2131.
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De Vries, TJ & Ortlieb,L. (1997). Determining the Early History of El Niño. Science, v. 276, 965-966. Enfield, D. B. (1989). El Niño, Past and Present. Reviews of Geophysics, 27, 159-187. Fedorov, AV & Philander, SG. (2000). Is El Niño Changing? Science, v. 288, 16 June, 1997-2002. Glantz, MH. (1996). Corrientes de Cambio: El Impacto de El Niño Sobre el Clima y la Sociedad, Cambridge University Press and The United States Agency for International Development. Gu,D & Philander, SGH. (1997). Interdecadal Climate Fluctuations That Depend on Exchanges Between the Tropics and Extratropics. Science, v. 275, 7 Feb., 805-807. Guilderson, TP & Schrag, DP. (1998). Abrupt Shift in Subsurface Temperatures in the Tropical Pacific Associated with Changes in El Niño. Science, v. 281, 10 July, 240-243. Jin, FF. (1996). Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction, the Pacific Cold Tongue, and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Science, v. 274, No. 5284, 4 Oct, 76-78. Keefer, DK, DeFrande, SD, Moseley, ME, Richardson, JB, Satterlee, DR & Day-Lewis, A. (1998). Early Maritime Economy and El Niño Events at Quebrada Tacahuay, Peru. Science, v. 281, 18 Sept., 1833-1835. Magellan Geographies. (1992). Map of South America. Santa Barbara, California. Mayell Hillary. (1997). El Niño Special Report. Environmental News Network (ENN) (WWW document),www.enn.com/specialreports/elnino/history.asp accessed 10 August 2000. McPhaden, MJ. (1999). Genesis and Evolution of the 1997-98 El Niño. Science, v. 283, 12 Feb., 950-954. Miller, A. Austin. (1950). Climatologia General. Edifiones Omega, Barcelona, Spain. Moreno, Luis. (1960). Estudio de Pluviometría en Chile. Dept. Meteorológico de la Universidad de Concepción. Moura, AD. (2000). El Niño and Climate Prediction Applications in South America. Revista Geofísica, Instituto Panamericano de Geografía e Historia, v. 49, 124-141. NASA/USRA Cooperative University-Based Program in Earth System Science Education (ESSE) (2000). El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Learning Module. (WWW document) ess.geology.ufl.edu/usra_esse/El_Nino.html. (accessed 8 August, 2000). NOAA/Climate Diagnostic Center. (2000). El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Information. (WWW document) www.cdc.noaa.gov/ENSO/. (accessed 9 August, 2000). NOAA/JAMSTEC. (2000). Realtime El Niño and La Niña data from the tropical Pacific Ocean provided by TAO/TRITON buoys. (WWW document) www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/realtime.html. (accessed 8 August, 2000). NOAA. NOAA La Niña Page. (1998) Updated 1 Ausgust, 2000. (WWW document) www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina.html. (accessed 11 August, 2000). NOAA Office of Global Programs. (1999). El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Home Page. (WWW document) www.ogp.noaa.gov/enso/. (accessed 5 August, 2000). NOAA/PMEL/TAO. (1998). El Niño theme page. (WWW document) www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/el-nino/nino-home.html. (accessed 18 August, 2000). NSIPP/GSFC/NASA. (1999). El Niño and the current state of the tropical Pacific. (WWW document) nsipp.gsfc.nasa.gov/enso/. (accessed 30 July, 2000). Philander, G. (1989). El Niño and La Niña. Scientific American, v. 77, 451-459. Picaut, J, Ioualalen,M, Menkes,C, Delcroix,T & McPhade,MJ. (1996). Mechanism of the Zonal Displacements of the Pacific Warm Pool: Implications for ENSO. Science, v. 274, No. 5292, 1486-1489. Plaff, A, Broad, K & Glantz, M. (1999) Who Benefits From Climate Forecasts? Nature, v. 397, 645-646. Rodbell, DT, Seltzer, GO, Anderson, DM, Abbott, MB, Enfield, DB & Newman, JH. (1999) An ~15,000-Year Record of El Niño Driven Alluviation in Southwestern Ecuador. Science, v. 283, 516-520. Sandweiss, DH, Maasch, KA, Anderson, DG. (1999). Climate and Culture: Transitions in the Mid-Holocene. Science, v. 283, No. 5401, 22 Jan, 499-500. Sandweiss, DH, Richardson JB, Reitz, EJ, Rollins, HB & Maasch, KA. (1997). Determining the Early History of El Niño. Science, v. 276, 966-967. Sandweiss, DH, Richardson, JB, Reitz, EJ, Rollins, HB & Maasch, KA. (1996). Geoarchaeological Evidence from Peru for a 5000 Years B.P. Onset of El Niño. Science, v. 273, No. 5284, 13 Sept., 1531-1533. San Martín, Luciano. (2000) E-mail dated 22 August. Personal Communications. Sears, AF. (1895). The Coastal Desert of Peru. Bulletin of the American Geographical Society, v. 28, pp. 256-271. SeaWiFS Project. (2000). ((WWW document) seawifs.gsfc.nasa.gov.seawirs.html) (accessed 11 August 2000) Suarez, MJ & Schopf, PS. (1998). A Delayed Action Oscillator for ENSO. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, v. 45, No. 21, Nov.1, 3283-3287.
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TOPEX/POSEIDON. (2000). El Niño/La Niña and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. (WWW document) topex- www.jpl.nasa.gov/elnino/elnino.html. (accessed 10 August, 2000). University of Illinois/Department of Atmospheric Sciences. (1997) El Niño: online meteorology guide. (WWW document) www2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/eln/home.rxml. (accessed 11 August, 2000). U.S. Center for Emergency Preparedness and Provisioning. (1998). Natural Disasters: El Niño. 208.146.218.81/el_nino.html. (accessed 8 August, 2000) US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA. (2000). Definitions of el Niño, La Niña and ENSO. (WWW document) www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/ensodefs.html. (accessed 30 July, 2000). USRA/ESSE Learning Module. (2000) Last update 13 June. ENSO Special Report. (WWW document) ess.geology.ufl.edu/usraol_esse/el_nino.html.. (Accessed 10 August 2000). Vynick, Jean Luc. (1970). Contribución al Estudio de la circulación en Chile. Dept. Meteorológico de la Universidad de Concepción. Wallace, JM, Vogel, S. (1994). El Niño and Climate Prediction, Reports on the Notion of our Changing Planet. NOAA. Wells, l, Haillaire-Marcel, C. (1997). Determining the Early History of El Niño. Science, v. 276, 966. Wells, LE & Noller, JS. (1997). Determining the Early History of El Niño. Science, v. 276, 966. Wyrtki Center for Climate Research and Prediction, University of Hawaii, Department of Oceanography, (WWW document) imina.soest.hawaii.edu/WCCRP/. (accessed 10 August 2000). Woodroffe, CD & Gagan, MK. (2000). Coral Microatolls From the Central Pacific Record Late Holocene El Niño. Geophysical Research Letters, v. 27 No. 10, pp. 1511-1514.
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2 COUNTRY PROFILES: PACIFIC COASTAL REGION OF SOUTH AMERICA
2.1 CHILE
2.1.1 GEOGRAPHY
Located on the Pacific coast of South America, Chile is one of the narrowest countries in the world — it averages only 177 kilometers across (see Figure 2-1). The country has a total area of 756,950 square kilometers, ranking fortieth among the world’s countries in total surface area. The nation includes Isla de Pascua or Easter Island, Isla Juan Fernandez, and Isla Sala y Gomez — all located hundreds of kilometers off the coast in the Pacific Ocean. Chile’s coastline stretches 6,435 kilometers, primarily on the Pacific Ocean. Chile’s terrain profile starts in the west with low coastal mountains, moves into a fertile central valley, and then develops into a zone of abrupt vertical uplift at the base of the Andes Mountains. The highest point in the nation is Cerro Aconcagua at 6,962 meters. Chile’s widest section (380 km) is found in the far northern part of the country, while the narrowest section (90 km) is located at the extreme south. Chile is a nation that experiences severe earthquakes, active volcanism, and occasional tsunamis [Britannica, 2000].
From north to south, the nation is generally divided into five natural regions. The first, the Norte Grande or desert far-north consists primarily of dry brown hills with sparse vegetation. The region contains the arid Atacama Desert (the driest desert in the world) and Andean plateau. Norte Chico or near north, the second region, consists of a semiarid region between Rio Copiapo and the capital city, Santiago. The third, Central Chile is the most densely populated region and includes the nation’s three largest metropolitan areas — Santiago, Valparaiso, and Concepción. The region consists primarily of the fertile Central Valley, which has a temperate, Mediterranean climate. Sur de Chile, the fourth region, south of the Rio Bio-Bio consists of a heavily forested landscape and a cool and very rainy lakes district. The region is crisscrossed by hundreds of rivers. Finally, the Chile Austral or far south is a highly dismembered, sparsely populated, heavily forested, and constantly stormy area. The region is comprised of countless fjords, inlets, twisting peninsulas, and islands [Britannica, 2000].
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Figure 2-1 Map of Chile.
2.1.2 ECONOMY
Chile has a comparatively strong, free market economy based predominantly on exploitation of its natural resources. The sound economic condition, exhibited by sustained economic growth and low inflation, was made possible by a major changes in economic policy initiated in the mid-seventies. Chile ranks forty-sixth in the world in GDP, with US$42 billion annually — that equals a GDP per person of US$3,074. The national economy’s estimated annual growth averages approximately 7 percent. In the past several years, the country has been very successful controlling the inflation rate by keeping it to approximately 2.3 percent — the lowest rate in 60 years. Finally, the unemployment rate was fairly low during the majority of the last decade (with its lowest figure at 5.39% at the end of 1998), but has experienced significant increases during the past two years. Chile’s most important industries are copper, fishmeal and wine. However, logging, iron ore, nitrates, precious metals, molybdenum, fruit, beef, poultry, and wool are also vital to the national economy. The country’s major trading partners are USA, Japan, Germany, and the UK [Britannica, 2000].
2.1.3 TRANSPORTATION AND COMMUNICATIONS
Chile’s great length and the formidable Andes Mountains have historically combined to constrain the effectiveness of long-distance travel networks. Therefore, the sea was used as the primary means of transporting cargo between the country’s different regions.
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For that reason, during the 19th century Chile owned one of the largest merchant fleets in Latin America. However, during the early 20th century, sea travel was supplanted by overland transport. Today, only international transport is conducted by sea. The nation’s main port of entry is Valparaiso, although there are several smaller ports along the coast — San Antonio, Antofagasta, Arica, Chanaral, Huasco, Guayacan, Tocopilla, and Talcahuano [Britannica, 2000].
The development of a land transportation network was started in the early 1900’s with the construction of two railway systems. The northern line, which connected La Calera and Iquique, is no longer operational. The southern line, which connects La Calera and Puerto Montt, is still operational. The sections linking Santiago with Valparaiso and Santiago with Puerto Montt are heavily traveled and compete with road transport. In addition, there is a short international rail service that connects Arica and Tacna, Peru [Britannica, 2000].
During the past several decades, Chile has briskly improved its highway transportation infrastructure. The foundation of the road network is the Pan-American Highway, which connects Arica with Chiloe Island — a distance 3,360 kilometers (2,100 miles). Secondary thoroughfares connect the nation’s major cities via the Pan American Highway. There is also a key west-east freeway that connects Santiago with Mendoza, Argentina [Britannica, 2000].
Air transport almost exclusively provides transportation options for passengers traveling between the cities at the extremes of the country. The primary carrier is the national airline, LAN Chile. All major South American airlines and a number of carriers from the United States and Europe handle the flow of international passengers to the Arturo Merino Benitez airport near Santiago [Britannica, 2000].
Print media, newspapers and magazines, are an important means of distributing news throughout Chile. In particular, Santiago’s “El Mercurio” and “La Tercera” provide detailed coverage of political, economic, environmental, and cultural news. There are scores of radio stations throughout the nation that include music and news formats. In addition, there are dozens of broadcast television stations offering a mixture of local and international programming. The domestic telephone network is generally of good quality. Two INTELSAT satellites provide good international service from the nation’s major cities [Britannica, 2000].
2.1.4 GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS
The Republic of Chile, with its capital in the city of Santiago, is a representative democracy. The nation is divided into thirteen regions, each governed by a presidential appointee. The central government is separated into three independent branches — executive, legislative, and judicial [Embassy of Chile: Washington, DC, 2000].
A popularly elected president, elected to a six-year term, acts as the head of state, chief executive, and commander in chief of the armed forces. The president cannot be
Summer Session Program 2000 ISU • ISU • 43 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution reelected to a consecutive second six-year term. Among the chief executive’s powers are: elaboration, ratification, and proclamation of national laws; the proposal of constitutional amendments; the appointment of cabinet members, diplomats, and regional authorities; the appointment of the comptroller general of the republic; the appointment of the supreme and appellate court judges; and the appointment and removal of the commanders in chiefs of the armed forces [Embassy of Chile: Washington, DC, 2000].
The legislative branch is embodied in the bicameral National Congress. The body has a Chamber of Deputies consisting of 120 popularly elected members that serve four-year terms. The body also has a Senate consisting of 38 popularly elected members that serve eight-year terms. There also 9 designated members — two chosen by the President, four by the National Security Council, and three chosen by the Supreme Court [Embassy of Chile: Washington, DC, 2000].
Chile’s legal system is comprised of a supreme court, appellate courts, and local tribunals. Supreme court justices are chosen by the president from a list of five candidates provided by the court. There is mandatory retirement age from the court at 75 years of age. There are a total of 16 appellate courts. The majority of these courts have four members, although the largest (Santiago) has twenty-five [Embassy of Chile: Washington, DC, 2000].
Chile has eight major political parties. The Christian Democratic Party, Party for Democracy, Radical and Social Democratic Party, and Socialist Party make up the current governing coalition. There are four opposition parties — National Renovation, Independent Democratic Union, Center-Center Union, and the Communist Party. The communists, however, have no representation in the National Congress [Embassy of Chile: Washington, DC, 2000].
2.1.5 NATIONAL, REGIONAL, AND INTERNATIONAL ENSO-RELATED INSTITUTIONS
Please refer to chapter five for a detailed description of these ENSO-related institutions.
2.2 PERU
2.2.1 GEOGRAPHY
Peru has a total area of 1,285,216 square kilometers (771,729 square miles) and measures 2,135 kilometers (1,281 miles) from north to south and 917 kilometers (570 miles) from east to west [Britannica, 2000]. The map of Peru is shown in the Figure 2-2.
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Figure 2-2 Map of Peru
Peru has three distinct geographical regions: the western coastal plain or Costa; the central sierra and Andes Mountains; and the dense jungle of the eastern lowland. The Costa is a long, narrow strip of land that runs the length of the coast from the border with Ecuador in the north to the border with Chile in the south. The region is intersected with short rivers, which flow down from the Andes. These features make the area uniquely suitable for agriculture [Britannica, 2000].
Traveling east from the coastal plain, the land rises dramatically into the towering Andean Highlands. The highest, steepest and most rugged mountains are in the Cordillera Blanca or central zone east of Lima. By contrast, the mountains in the northern zone are not as high. A high, flat plateau characterizes the southern zone terrain [Britannica, 2000].
Peru's section of the Amazon Basin is a vast, often impenetrable jungle region occupying about 60 percent of Peru's total area. The area is traversed by the mighty
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Amazon River, which officially begins at Iquitos at the confluence of the Maranon, Huallaga, and Ucayali rivers [Britannica, 2000].
Within Peru, the climate varies considerably from region to region. Along the coast, it is extremely dry, with an average annual precipitation of only 5 centimeters (2 inches), and mild. The highlands region is slightly more lush and cooler. The Amazon region is generally hot and humid, averaging at least 200 centimeters (80 inches) per year [Britannica, 2000].
2.2.2 ECONOMY
Since 1990, with the election of President Alberto Fujimori, the Peruvian government has pursued a bold economic reform agenda. The Peruvian economy is becoming increasingly market-oriented, with major privatizations completed in the mining, electricity, and telecommunications industries. As a result of the new policy approach, the country is now showing signs of recovery after years of economic crisis. The GDP has risen from US$20.6 billion in 1991 to US$62.9 billion in 1998. During that same period: the growth rate rose from 2.4 percent to 7.2 percent; the rate of inflation fell steadily from 7,649 percent to only 6.7 percent; and the combined public sector deficit fell from 6.5 percent of GDP to 0.8 percent of GDP. Peru’s most important industries are copper, oil, silver, gold, iron, lead, zinc, ore coal, phosphates and manganese. However, petroleum, coffee, potatoes, maize, sugarcane, coca, rice, and fishmeal are also vital to the national economy [Britannica, 2000].
2.2.3 TRANSPORTATION AND COMMUNICATION
Peru’s transportation system faces a serious challenge from the imposing Andes Mountains and the complex Amazon River system. Currently, the only truly integrated transport networks are highway and air travel. The most important highway in the nation is the Pan American Highway, which runs along the coast from Ecuador to Chile. Air transport is particularly important for the country’s development due to its hilly geography. Peru has over 200 usable airports (about 50 with paved surface runways). The main international destination is Jorge Chavez International Airport in Lima. The country’s two railroad lines have not yet been interconnected and the maritime traffic is primarily international. Finally, the river traffic in the Amazonian region has not been thoroughly developed because of the vast distances that must be covered and the low population density in the area [Britannica, 2000].
The Peruvian telephone system remains one of the Latin America’s least developed. In 1991, in order to modify that situation, the government eliminated the telecommunications monopoly after concluding that the state run company had impeded modernization and hurt consumers, particularly in rural areas. Peru has a nationwide microwave radio relay system and a domestic satellite system with 12 earth stations. Two INTELSAT satellites provide fair international service from the nation’s major cities [Britannica, 2000].
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2.2.4 GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS
Peru has a long history of unstable political institutions demonstrated by numerous military coups and changes of constitution. The latest constitution, approved in 1993, established an executive branch headed by a popularly elected president who serves a five-year term. The president acts as the head of state and commander in chief of the Armed Forces. A prime minister is nominated by the president and presides over the Council of Ministers, which is also appointed by the president. That council is responsible for approving all presidential law decrees and draft bills sent to the legislature [Embassy of Peru: Washington, DC, 2000].
The nation’s unicameral legislature consists of 120 popularly elected members that serve five-year terms. Congress has the power to initiate and pass legislation; interpret, amend and repeal existing legislation; draft sanctions for violation of legislation; approve treaties; approve the budget and general accounts; authorize borrowing; exercise the right of amnesty; and delegate the legislative function to the president [Embassy of Peru: Washington, DC, 2000].
The Supreme Court of Justice is the highest judicial authority in Peru. The sixteen supreme court justices are nominated by the president, are approved by the Senate, and serve for life. The Constitutional Tribunal interprets the constitution on matters of individual rights. There are superior courts in the capitals of each judicial districts and Courts of First Instance that assemble in the nation’s provincial capitals. The Courts of First Instance are divided into civil, criminal and special branches. Finally, there are justices of the peace in each city and town [Embassy of Peru: Washington, DC, 2000].
2.2.5 NATIONAL ENSO-RELATED INSTITUTIONS
Presidential Ministry (MIPRE) — The preeminent executive ministry, it gets involved in all state functions except those of the legislative branch.
Transitory Committee for the Regional Management (CTAR) — The body that manages the state budget in the nation’s twenty-four departments. The organization’s authority is reinforced in times of emergency.
Civil Defense Institute (INDECI) — The agency that mobilizes the population before and after natural disasters. It is composed of both civilian and military units.
National Food Program (PRONAA) — The organization responsible for managing the distribution of food to poor communities.
Meteorological National Service (SENAMHI) — The primary national institution for weather activities. Its main mission is to provide short-term weather forecast. The service works closely with the Ministry of Defense. The SENAMHI has the best infrastructure and assets to supply good climate studies for Peruvian decision makers.
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Sea Institute (IMARPE) — Part of the Ministry of Fishing, the agency is responsible for recommending national fishing policies. The Institute studies the marine biology on the Peruvian coast.
Geophysical Institute (IGP) — The agency studies several aspects of the earth environment, including seismology and climate. The Institute assists the Ministry of Agriculture in promoting different crops according to the future climate situation in the country. The organization is capable of providing medium-term ENSO forecasts utilizing an algorithm that employs data from NOAA buoys.
Peruvian Navy Hydrograph and Navigation Division (DHNM) — The organization tracks sea current and atmospheric variations along the Pacific coast of South America.
El Niño Phenomenon National Study (ENFEN) — The organization combines the work of all national scientific institutions working for the executive branch. ENFEN is managed by SENAMHI and the IGP.
Biological Impact Network (RIBEN) — The organization combines the work of the biology departments of several Peruvian universities. RIBEN has constructed several ground stations throughout Peru to study the effects of natural events (including ENSO).
University of Piura — The University has organized a number of ENSO studies and seminars.
2.2.6 INTERNATIONAL AND REGIONAL ENSO-RELATED INSTITUTIONS
South Pacific Permanent Commission (CPPS) — Peru is a founding member of the CPPS, an organization created to unite national institutions to better monitor the ENSO phenomenon.
2.3 ECUADOR
2.3.1 GEOGRAPHY
Ecuador, located on the northwest Pacific coast of South America, is a rather small nation by South American standards, with only 269,178 square kilometers (103,930 square miles) of total area (see Figure 2-3). The country is separated into three major geographic regions: the Costa, or coastal region; the Sierra, or highland region; and the Oriente, or Amazon region. The Galapagos archipelago constitutes the nation’s fourth distinctive region. The Costa is located between the Pacific Ocean and the Andes Mountains. It consists primarily of rich agricultural lowlands and long stretches of unspoiled beaches [Britannica, 2000].
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Figure 2-3 Map of Ecuador
The Sierra is composed of two major chains of the Andes — the Cordillera Occidental or Western Chain and the Cordillera Oriental or Eastern Chain. Between the two mountain chains are large valleys that are named for their major river systems. The region has been populated and its land cultivated for centuries. Quito, the capital of Ecuador, is found in the Sierra. The area is also home to six active volcanoes, including Mount Cotopaxi — the highest active volcano in the world [Britannica, 2000].
The Oriente region begins at the eastern foothills of the Andes Mountains. The region is entirely covered by the Amazon rainforest and contains abundant animal life and vegetation. The melting snow from the Ecuadorian Andes volcanoes forms the rivers in the region. Among them is the Napo River — at 850 kilometers it is the longest river in the nation [Britannica, 2000].
The Galapagos Islands are located approximately 1,000 kilometers off the coast of Ecuador. There are thirteen major volcanic islands found among the isolated chain, as well as 6 smaller islands and over 40 islets [Britannica, 2000].
2.3.2 ECONOMY
The Ecuadorian economy has traditionally been dominated by the agricultural sector. The economy has depended heavily on the export of three products: cocoa, coffee, and banana. However, shrimp, tuna, cut flowers, and wood are also vital to the national
Summer Session Program 2000 ISU • ISU • 49 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution economy. After the discovery of oil in the early 1970’s, oil became the country’s primary export. In the mid-1980’s, after the collapse of world oil prices, the country experienced a long period of dangerously high inflation rates that averaged 59.7 percent annually. In 1992, Ecuador adopted the Macroeconomic Stabilization Plan in an effort to reduce inflation levels. In 1995, as the nation headed toward fiscal recovery, Ecuador became embroiled in a costly border dispute with neighboring Peru that halted progress. During the past four years, the country found itself in a downward financial spiral. On 1 March 2000, after a political coup triggered by an attempt to “dollarize” the economy, Ecuador's Congress approved the Economic Transformation Law that is designed to implement sweeping economic reforms. The legislation is introducing flexibility into the market (e.g. allowing part-time hiring) and encouraging further private investment (both foreign and domestic) in the oil, electric, and telecommunications sectors [US Embassy: Quito, Ecuador, 2000].
2.3.3 TRANSPORTATION AND COMMUNICATION
Due to the Ecuador’s rugged geography, development of national transportation networks was extremely difficult. Railroad development was a complicated process and subject to periodic disruption due to floods, landslides, and earthquakes. Transport was transformed by the growth of paved roadways throughout the country — particularly the Pan-American Highway, which passes through the Andes from the Colombian to the Peruvian border. Air transport has grown in importance during the last few decades, particularly between Quito and Guayaquil. The major domestic airline is the state- controlled Compania Ecuatoriana de Aviación. International air carriers increasingly serve the nation, landing principally in either Quito or Guayaquil. Bus transportation, however, remains the primary long-distance travel service provider in Ecuador. Several regional bus companies provide cheap and frequent transport throughout the country [Britannica, 2000].
Print media, newspapers and magazines, are an important means of distributing news throughout Ecuador. In particular, Quito’s “El Comercio” is the nation’s most popular newspaper, providing detailed coverage of political, economic, environmental, and cultural news. There are hundreds of radio stations throughout the nation that include music and news formats. In addition, there are more than a dozen broadcast television stations offering a mixture of local and international programming. The domestic telephone network is generally of poor quality compared with more developed nation’s. However, the country is served by one INTELSAT satellite that provides adequate international service from major cities [Britannica, 2000].
2.3.4 GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS
The Republic of Ecuador, with its capital in the city of Quito, is a representative democracy. The nation’s constitution, which was ratified in 1998, established three branches of government. A popularly elected President, elected to a single four-year term, acts as the Head of State, Chief Executive Officer, and Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces. The President appoints the Cabinet Ministers in fifteen different departments, including: Government;
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Foreign Affairs; Defense; Economy and Finance; Energy and Mining; External Trade; Agriculture; Tourism; Public Works; Housing and Development; Education; Public Health; Labor; Environment; and Social Welfare [Embassy of Ecuador: Washington, DC, 2000].
The legislative branch is embodied in the unicameral National Congress which has 79 at-large members that represent the entire nation and 42 members that represent specific provinces. All 121 members of the Congress are popularly elected and serve four-year terms. Under the Constitution, the Congress is responsible for enacting legislation, interpreting the Constitution; establishing national budgets; approving public treaties; approving high-level government officials; and reviewing the executive branch budget [Embassy of Ecuador: Washington, DC, 2000].
Ecuador’s legal system is based on a civil law system and is comprised of administrative courts, trial courts, appellate or Provincial Superior Court, and a Supreme Court. The Supreme Court consists of 30 Justices, elected to life terms, which are divided among ten chambers of three Justices each. When a vacancy on the court opens up, the full Supreme Court elects new justices from among Appellate Judges. While not formally a part of the judicial branch, the Supreme Elections Tribunal has pseudo-judicial powers to organize and supervise national and regional elections [Embassy of Ecuador: Washington, DC, 2000].
Ecuador has nine major political parties: the Social Christian Party, Ecuadorian Conservative Party, Democratic Left, Popular Democracy, Radical Alfarista Front, Roldosist Party, Concentration of Popular Forces, Pachakutik-New Country, and the Popular Democratic Movement. No party is strong throughout the country, so that alliances must be established to attain victory at the national level [Embassy of Ecuador: Washington, DC, 2000].
2.3.5 ENSO RELATED ENTITIES IN ECUADOR
The national entities dealing with ENSO Phenomenon in Ecuador are [Cornejo-Grunauer Pilar, 2000]:
Fishing National Institute — Part of the Ministry of Commerce, the Institute performs research on fishery resources.
National Civil Defense — Part of the Ministry of Defense, the agency is responsible for studying disasters and disaster relief.
National Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (INAMHI) — The government agency primarily responsible for providing meteorological services.
Center for the Integrated Surveying of Natural Resources through Remote Sensing (CLIRSEN) — The governmental agency that has a reception station in Cotopaxi that collects data from Landsat, Indiasat, NOAA (SST), and Seawifs (Chlorophyll-a).
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Ecuadorian Air Force — Provides meteorological and satellite information.
Catholic University of Guayaquil — The University addresses civil engineering problems related to sewage, water supply and slope problems.
University of Guayaquil — the Departments of Natural Sciences and Marine Biology deal with ENSO-related issues.
Coastal Technical University (ESPOL) — Provides socio-economic impact analysis and limited monitoring services.
International and Regional ENSO-Related Institutions [Cornejo-Grunauer Pilar, 2000]
South Pacific Permanent Commission (CPPS) — Ecuador is a founding member of the CPPS, an organization created to unite national institutions to better monitor the ENSO phenomenon.
El Niño Phenomenon Regional Study (ERFEN) — Ecuador is a member of ERFEN, a regional body created to study ENSO. Each national member is responsible for establishing a government agency responsible for ERFEN activities. In Ecuador, that body is the Technical Secretariat for ERFEN (ERFEN’s technical secretariat), in which the position of permanent secretary is held by INOCAR, i.e. the Navy, and is based in Guayaquil (GYE) [Cornejo-Grunauer Pilar, 2000].
2.4 COLOMBIA
2.4.1 GEOGRAPHY
Colombia is located on the equator in the northwest corner of South America. Its territory links South America to Central America. Colombia has 1,600 kilometers (1,000 miles) of northern coast that lies on the Caribbean Sea (see Figure 2-4). More importantly when considering ENSO effects, Colombia has 1,300 kilometers (800 miles) of western coast that lies on the Pacific Ocean. Its 1,141,748 square kilometers (440,831 square miles) includes the San Andres and Providencia archipelagos (located off the Nicaraguan coast in the Caribbean Sea) in addition to the Colombian mainland. The country’s population is concentrated in the interior regions, which influences how it is impacted by the ENSO phenomenon. Bogota, the national capital, is situated on a high plateau in the northern Andes Mountains [Britannica, 2000].
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Figure 2-4 Map of Colombia
Colombia is divided into six geographical areas: Atlantic coast; Pacific coast; Orinoco River Basin or Orinoquia; Amazon River Basin or Amazonia; San Andres and Providence; and the Andean Region. Mountains constitute 30 percent of the country's land area, with the remainder consisting mainly of plains. The Andes Mountains three ranges, and the valleys lying between them, form the mountainous region. The region begins in the southwest, where the Andes split into three ranges (Western, Central and Eastern) and ends in the north at the Sierra Nevada range [Britannica, 2000].
Colombia's closeness to the equator makes its climate tropical and isothermal. temperatures and seasons vary little. The only “normal” variable climatic element is the amount of yearly precipitation. Where the northeast and southeast trade winds originate, climatic differences relate to elevation and inter-tropical convergence zone displacement between the two major air masses [Britannica, 2000].
2.4.2 ECONOMY
Colombia had a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of approximately US$32 billion in 1999. Economic growth has been very slow and during the past several years (including a negative growth year in 1999). The lack of economic growth in 1999 resulted in fiscal deficits of 4.6 percent of GDP. The development of Colombia’s economy is influenced by the fluctuation in world prices of oil (which accounts for 36 percent of the nation’s total exports), coffee, coal, gold, bananas, and cut flowers. Internal political conflicts with guerrillas have led to a decrease in domestic and international investment. Colombia’s illegal trade in marijuana, heroin, and cocaine remains a major, albeit illegal, source of income. Due to an unstable national currency (the Colombian peso), international assistance was recently sought to avoid a banking crisis among the country’s largest 30 banks. The high unemployment rate, an estimated 9.2 percent in 1999, further illustrates the nation’s difficult economic situation [Britannica, 2000].
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2.4.3 TRANSPORTATION AND COMMUNICATION
Colombia is confronted by diverse terrain throughout the country. According to a 1995 estimate, approximately 115,564 kilometers of highway, only 13,868 km of which are paved, and a total of 3,380 kilometers of outdated railway system carry the majority of Colombia’s traffic. The country also has about 14,300 kilometers of navigable waterways and 10 large ports. Finally, 89 paved airports serve the nation, as does the government- controlled airline Avianca [Britannica, 2000].
Colombia has a comparatively modern telecommunications sector, with good telephone systems centered in the large cities of Cali, Medellin, Barranquilla, and Cartagena. Colombia ranks among the top five countries in telephone coverage in the Americas. The nationwide microwave radio relay system includes 11 domestic Earth stations. As an INTELSAT member, Colombia has two Atlantic Ocean Earth ground stations. There are about 500 radio stations and 100 television stations received in the country by 5.5 million television sets (1993 estimate). Newspapers are widely available [Britannica, 2000].
2.4.4 GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS
Colombia’s Constitution, approved in 1991, provided for a separation of powers into legislative, judicial and executive branches. Most government functions for the nation’s 33 administrative divisions are centralized in the capital Bogota. The head of the executive branch is the President of the Republic of Colombia, who is elected every four years by direct popular vote. The president is Head of State and the Chief Executive Officer [Colombian Embassy: Helsinki, Finland, 2000].
The Colombian legislative branch consists of a bicameral Congress. There is a 102-seat Senate and a 161-seats House of Representatives. Members of both institutions are elected for a four-year term by popular vote [Colombian Embassy: Helsinki, Finland, 2000].
The Colombian judicial system is based largely on Spanish law, but recently has been influenced by other legal systems like United States of America. The judiciary features a 24-member Supreme Court of Justice, which is the highest venue for criminal matters. The Council of State is the highest venue for administrative matters. There is also a Constitutional Court that safeguards the constitution and reviews the constitutionality of national laws [Colombian Embassy: Helsinki, Finland, 2000].
Colombia has two primary parties, the Liberal Party and the Social Conservative Party. A number of smaller parties, like the Marxist parties, exist and are organized in coalitions but do not play an important role in national governance. While elections have been considered fair, the Roman Catholic Church and the military have influence over major elections. Although military influence has increased periodically, the authority of the civil government has never been seriously challenged. Despite the overall stability of the Colombian government, numerous inter-party wars and guerilla actions have resulted in
54 • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution thousands of Colombian deaths during recent periods of political violence. More recently, conflicts involving drug smugglers have lead to frequent casualties [Colombian Embassy: Helsinki, Finland, 2000].
2.4.5 NATIONAL ENSO-RELATED INSTITUTIONS
The national entities dealing with ENSO Phenomenon in Colombia are [Caicedo, 2000]:
Colombian Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environment Studies (IDEAM) — The Institute studies the ENSO phenomenon. It is responsible for short, medium, and long-term climatic predictions, which are published monthly. ENSO-related information is distributed to the relevant Colombian government ministries, the National System of Disaster Attention and Prevention, and the Mayors’ offices in major cities. Data regarding ENSO events is also spread using television and other media outlets. Finally, Institute members have given more than 100 lectures during the past several years on the topic for private sector leaders, universities, and public school students [IDEAM Online, 2000].
Pacific Contamination Control Center (CCCP) — The organization occasionally provides observations of climate conditions in the Colombian Pacific maritime region.
National Technical Committee to Study ENSO (ERFEN) — The agency set up by Colombia to meet its obligations under the CPPS. ERFEN coordinates the efforts of national institutions. The committee is composed of IDEAM, CCCP, the National Office for Prevention and Attention of Disasters, the Geographical Institute Agustin Codazzi, the Foreign Relations Ministry, and the National Health Institute.
2.4.6 INTERNATIONAL AND REGIONAL ENSO-RELATED INSTITUTIONS
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) — Colombia is active in the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), specifically participating in programs relating to ENSO [World Health Organization Online, 2000].
World Health Organization (WHO) — Colombia participates in WHO efforts to deal with the negative health effects caused by ENSO [World Health Organization Online, 2000].
Permanent Commission of the South Pacific (CPPS) — Colombia is a member of CPPS and cooperates with other member States on regional aspects on ENSO [CPPS Online, 2000].
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2.5 REFERENCES
Chile at Britannica (2000). Citing Internet resources. (WWW document) www.britannica.com/bcom/eb/article/6/0,5716,109076+1+106240,00.html (current 11 August 2000). Colombia at Britannica (2000). Citing Internet resources. (WWW document) www.britannica.com /bcom/eb/article/2/0,5716,109132+1+106257,00.html (current 22 August 2000). Cornejo-Grunauer Pilar, Personal Communication, July 2000. CPPS Online. (2000). Citing Internet resources. (WWW document) www.cpps.org.ec/ (current 21 August 2000). Ecuador at Britannica (2000). Citing Internet resources. (WWW document) www.britannica.com/bcom/eb/article/5/0,5716,109015+1+106215,00.html (current 11 August 2000). Embassy of Chile: Wasington, DC. (2000). Citing Internet resources. (WWW document) www.chile- usa.org/documents/political/institutions.htm (current 11 August 2000). Embassy of Colombia: Helsinki, Finland. (2000). Citing Internet resources. (WWW document) www.kolumbus.fi/emcolhel/general2.htm (current 22 August 2000). Embassy of Ecuador: Washington, DC. (2000). Citing Internet resources. (WWW document) www.ecuador.org (current 11 August 2000). Embassy of Peru: Washington, DC. (2000). Citing Internet resources. (WWW document) www.peruemb.org/main.html (current 21 August 2000). Embassy of the United States: Quito, Ecuador. (2000). Citing Internet resources. (WWW document) www.usis.org.ec/ (current 11 August 2000). IDEAM Online. (2000). Citing Internet resources. (WWW document) www.ideam.gov.co/web/informes/menu.htm (current 22 August 2000). Jose Daniel Pabon Caicedo: Meteorology Deputy Manager of IDEAM, Personal Communication, August 2000. Peru at Britannica (2000). Citing Internet resources. (WWW document) www.britannica.com /bcom/eb/article/7/0,5716,115067+1+108535,00.html (current 21 August 2000). United States Library of Congress. (2000). Citing Internet resources. (WWW document) lcweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/ectoc.html (current 11 August 2000). World Health Organization Online “El Nino/La Nina Update.” (2000). Citing Internet resources. (WWW document) www.wmo.ch/ (current 21 August 2000). World Health Organization “Fact Sheet 192.” (2000). Citing Internet resources. (WWW document) www.who.int/inf- fs/en/fact192.html (current 22 August 2000)
56 • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution
3 THE EFFECTS OF ENSO ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
3.1 INTRODUCTION
This chapter will outline the major effects of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the region of the South American Pacific Coast. As ENSO honors no political borders, the effects of the phenomenon will be discussed for all four countries of the region: Chile, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia. The goal of this chapter is first to analyze the impacts of ENSO in human terms and second to identify the needs of affected populations. Such an analysis will provide a focus whereby technological tools (both space-based and ground-based) can be more effectively applied towards predicting ENSO and mitigating its effects.
The effects of ENSO on infrastructure, on industry (namely agriculture and fisheries), and on the social sector in each of the four countries are described. The environmental impacts of ENSO (including flooding, mudslides, droughts, and fires) are not directly addressed. Instead the consequences of these effects are analyzed since they are key to understanding the human impact thereby providing the link to effective utilization of space and ground-based technologies.
It is important to understand the effects of ENSO within the context of the political, economic, and geographical climate of each country. Chapter two outlines the present climate within Chile, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia for this purpose.
The recommendations presented at the end of the chapter will aid in identifying the major areas in which technological and institutional solutions can be implemented.
3.2 DEFINITION OF TERMS
When assessing the impacts of ENSO on the South American Pacific coastal countries, it is useful to define the following terms. It should be noted that these terms were defined specifically by the authors and pertain to this particular study of ENSO in the South American Pacific coastal countries.
Preparation: refers to the act of getting ready for negative impacts caused by ENSO through implementation of preparatory measures. For example, preparation could involve the use of planning maps to determine possible affected areas.
Summer Session Program 2000 ISU • ISU • 57 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution
Prevention: refers to the act of evading negative impacts caused by ENSO through preparation measures. For example, prevention of floods can be accomplished by erection of temporary dykes or dams.
Prediction: refers to the act of determining how ENSO will affect infrastructure, industry and people prior to arrival of the ENSO phenomenon in the South American Pacific Coastal countries using space-based or ground-based techniques. For example, remote sensing, a space-based technique, can be used to monitor the changes in sea-surface temperature, a good indicator of ENSO.
Assessment/Monitoring: refers to the act of evaluating and analyzing the affected area before, during and after ENSO. For example, remote sensing images and data can be used to monitor disease in affected areas before, during and after an ENSO event.
Mitigation: refers to the act of making consequences of ENSO less severe. For example, mitigation includes clean-up after floods or mudslides.
3.3 ASSESSING ENSO'S SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT
HOW DOES ENSO AFFECT PEOPLE?
El Niño and the Southern Oscillation significantly impacts the people of Chile, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia. The climate fluctuations that are the trademark of this phenomenon (see chapter one) cause extreme variances in precipitation that produce alternate drought and flooding in the affected regions. Drought directly affects water supply and agriculture, which in turn have repercussive effects on health and economy. Increasing temperatures in the absence of precipitation increase the risk of fires. Flooding induces mudslides, destroys homes, and damages infrastructure (such as roads, bridges, airports, jetties, sewers, and gas lines), which in turn affect transportation, tourism, and the delivery of food and medical supplies. The specific effects of ENSO on Chile, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia are described in detail in the sections below (see section 3.4).
OVERVIEW OF THE IMPACT
To evaluate the overall socio-economic effects of ENSO, several parameters may be used:
Number of lives lost
Estimated loss in US dollars
Percent of GNP lost
These parameters will provide an overview of the magnitude of ENSO's socio-economic impact on the South American Pacific coast. The need for government policy makers to take a closer look at prevention and mitigation of ENSO-related effects is underlined.
58 • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution
In researching available information on the effects of previous ENSO events, significant discrepancies were found in the sources. The numbers varied depending on factors such as governmental versus nongovernmental institutions and date of report. It is important to note that the purpose of this chapter is not to assess the accuracy of these values, but to provide a general perspective of the impact of ENSO on these different countries.
NUMBER OF LIVES LOST
The number of lives lost in the South American Pacific Coastal countries provides a poignant indication of the adverse ENSO-related effects. In Chile, 22 people were killed [www.vita.org/disaster/sitrep/97a/0054.html]. Official reports in Peru estimate that 300,000 people were directly affected. The reports cite 200 casualties. In the town of Ica, a city of 160,000 people surrounded by desert, 4 casualties were reported, 15 were listed missing and tens of thousands fled their homes for shelters without electricity or running water as a result of severe flooding due to ENSO [library.thinkquest.org /17865/s_America/Peru.htm]. During the 1997-1998 ENSO phenomenon, approximately 7 million people in Ecuador (60% of the Ecuadorian population) were indirectly or directly affected [Olson, 1999]. The Comisión Economica para America Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) estimates that 286 people lost their lives, 162 were injured and 36 were listed as missing as a result of the ENSO-related effects in Ecuador [Olson, 1999]. The coastal and southern provinces of Ecuador were heavily hit by rain. This led to severe flooding and mudslides that claimed the lives of 90 people [library.thinkquest.org /17865/s_america/ecuador.html]. In Colombia, during the period of June 1988 to December 1989, 188 people were killed, 84 people were injured and 108 people went missing as a result of overflowing rivers and landslides induced by La Nina [IDEAM, 1999b]. It is estimated that during the same period, 71,000 persons were affected. During the 1997-1998 ENSO event flooding caused 2 people to die and 2,000 to be homeless. [www.islandpress.com/economics/ecological/nino.html].
ESTIMATED LOSS IN US DOLLARS
The number of US dollars spent on mitigation and prevention of ENSO-related destruction provides government and policy makers with an indication of the severity of the damage. An estimated total of US $5.3B was lost in the South American Pacific coastal regions due to ENSO-induced effects. Between 1994-1997 in Chile, US $70M were spent in prevention and mitigation of ENSO-related disasters. According to analysts in Peru, estimated losses surpass US $1.8B [PREDES, 2000]. This implies a serious setback for poverty alleviation programs. CEPAL estimates that Ecuador suffered total economic losses of US $2.9B [Olson, 1999]. Of this total, 27% (US $738M) are directly due to ENSO and 73% (US $2086M) are from indirect damages [Olson, 1999]. CEPAL estimates that Ecuador suffered US $23M in housing losses, US $15M in school losses, and US $1B in roads and bridges [Olson, 1999]. In Colombia, an estimated US $564M worth of damages were caused by El Niño, a figure amounting to 22% of the national external debt. [CEPAL, Septiembre 1998, Estudio Económico de América Latina y el Caribe 1997-1998, LC/G.2032-P, Santiago de Chile].
In August 1999, the Comisión Oceanografica Intergubernamental estimated the economic losses due to El Niño 1997/1998 as follows.
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Table 3-1 Economic losses due to El Niño 1997/1998
Country Losses in M US$
Peru 1800
Chile 1000
Colombia 250
Ecuador 3000 – 4000
PERCENT OF GNP LOST
In Chile, 0.15% of the gross national product (GNP) was lost to ENSO-related effects (www.idndr.org/nino/impactfig.html). An economic analysis of Peru indicates that the loss by percent of GNP is estimated at 1.19%. In Ecuador and Colombia, 11.41% and 0.57%, respectively, were lost due to the ENSO phenomenon (www.idndr.org/nino /impactfig.html), [CEPAL, 1998].
Societal impacts of both El Niño and La Niña are important. The ripple effect of these events cuts across several geographic and economic boundaries and affects virtually all socio-economic aspects of human activities on the South American Pacific coast. The following sections will describe in detail the ENSO-related impacts specific to Chile, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia.
3.4 OVERVIEW OF THE EFFECTS OF ENSO PHENOMENON ON INDUSTRY, INFRASTRUCTURE AND PEOPLE
3.4.1 PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND TRANSPORTATION
In each of Chile, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia, significant damages were inflicted on public infrastructure. The following section describes the severity of damages and indicates how they have affected other public sectors.
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DAMAGES
Figure 3-1 Collapse of Bridges Figure 3-2 Floods and Food transportation
Source: Peru Home Page (October 10, 1998) www.oala.villanova.edu/Chulucanas/eng_el_nino_relief.html
Heavy rains and floods damaged existing roads and bridges in all of the countries, severely disabling transportation. In Chile, for example, sewer systems, bridges, roads, channels, cultivated lands, and riverbanks were severely damaged due to the 1997-1998 ENSO phenomenon [CPPS, 1999]. Damages during this time were estimated by the Ministry of Public Works at US$71.5M [www.vita.org/disaster/sitrep/97a/0052.html]. During the 82-83 El Niño event in Peru, 26,000 km of roads were destroyed. Together with the destruction of 47 bridges and 4 airports, infrastructure losses in Peru totaled US $200M [CEPES,1999]. Unfortunately, this money was spent replacing the roads and bridges as simple replications of what was there originally. Lessons learned were not utilized. Then when El Niño returned in 97-98, the roads and bridges were again destroyed. This time three percent of the country's roads were destroyed, including nearly 1000 km of the Pan-American Highway. At the same time, 50 bridges were completely destroyed and another 28 were severely damaged [library.thinkquest.org /17865/s_America/Peru.html]. Ecuador also lost ten bridges in the 1997 event requiring approximately $US 100M for rebuilding and re-construction [Vos, 1999]. The political and economic climate of Ecuador influenced the effects of ENSO on the infrastructure of the country. Secondary roads and bridges were improperly maintained at the outset: 1996 was a campaign year for the Ecuadorian government, and early 1997 heralded political instability. As a result, public infrastructure was neither improved nor maintained. In addition, existing bridge and road designs did not comply with regulations required for withstanding heavy rainfall during normal rainy conditions. In light of these conditions, the damage to public infrastructure in Ecuador should not be entirely attributed to the ENSO phenomenon [Cornejo-Grunauer, 2000a]. Nevertheless, the 1997-1998 CEPAL report indicates that US $1000M was lost in damages to Ecuadorian public infrastructure [Olson, 1999]. The coastal infrastructure was the hardest hit. A damage analysis indicated that the main roads also suffered severe damages along the 2500km system. Approximately 400 km were in need of repair and an estimated 60km required complete re-construction [Vos, 1999]. In Colombia, heavy rainfall, landslides, and floods affected the infrastructure and transport system. The 1997-1998 El Niño was responsible for a total of US $315M damage to infrastructure (drinking water, electricity, oil and transport)
Summer Session Program 2000 ISU • ISU • 61 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution and US $6M damage to transport alone. In Colombia, road systems are severely affected during La Niña events. Strong rains increase the number of landslides on the roads leaving roads and other physical infrastructure flooded. In January of 1989, the Ministry of Public Works estimated that the cost to recover damaged roads due to strong rainfall since 1988, would approximate US$15 million [IDEAM, 1999b]. Furthermore, during periods of drought, decreases in the water levels cause river transport to be compromised (www.ideam.gov.co/).
ENSO-related effects also had a profound impact on infrastructure in the energy sector. In 1983, damage to a major gas line disabled transfer of natural gas throughout Peru. This paralyzed a major energy source for the country, resulting in an estimated US $185M loss. An additional US $133M was spent on repairs to electrical power lines and plants [CEPES,1999]. Colombia’s electric sector is mostly based in hydro-power (80%), and it is therefore highly vulnerable to the dry periods experienced during El Niño events. Power rationing measures were utilized and power failures occasionally occurred. Total losses due to electricity shortage during the 1991-1992 El Niño were estimated at US $1B (www.csmonitor.com/durable/1998/04/08/p8s1.html).
DAMAGES TO INFRASTRUCTURE AFFECTS OTHER SECTORS
EFFECTS ON AGRICULTURE SECTOR
The economic integrity of the agricultural sector requires rapid transportation of goods over long distances. In Peru in 1998, President Fujimori had to call on the Navy to help transport fruits and vegetables from northern Peru to around Lima where the food was needed [NHRAIC,2000]. As a result of road closures or impasses due to ENSO-related damages, crops could not be mobilized in Ecuador, and shrimp could not be transported to packing plants in time for sale.
EFFECTS ON TOURISM
Damage to transportation infrastructure also disables the tourism industry since damages to road transportation combined with inclement weather prevent tourists from holidaying at popular coastal resorts. In Ecuador during peak vacation periods, the coastal tourist regions were almost vacant due to the adverse road conditions and inclement weather [Vos, 1999].
EFFECTS ON HUMAN HEALTH
Sewer and sanitation systems were also severely affected by ENSO-related effects. As a result, both potable water supplies and hygiene deteriorated, leaving many of those affected by ENSO exposed to epidemics such as malaria, cholera, dengue fever and leptospirosis. In Peru, in 1983, fresh water was unavailable in some areas because a total of 45 water supply systems were destroyed. The estimated loss was US $50M [CEPES, 1999]. However, this number does not capture the indirect health costs and other losses due to the lack of potable water. In Ecuador, CEPAL indicates that the greatest losses in public infrastructure were in water systems, sewage treatment, communications and transport [Olson, 1999]. The damage to sanitation systems had an
62 • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution adverse affect on the transmission of epidemics. The damage to transportation infrastructure also prevents those affected by ENSO-related damages from receiving medical and disaster relief supplies.
3.4.2 INDUSTRY
The effects of ENSO in the four countries, Chile, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia are very pronounced in the industrial sector. From the research accumulated, agriculture and fisheries appear to be the sectors most affected and are given priority in this section. It should be noted that some industries experience both negative and positive impacts of ENSO. The following paragraphs provide an economic and physical measure of the severity of the effects on these two sectors.
3.4.2.1 AGRICULTURE
In Chile, Peru, Ecuador, and Chile, the effects of ENSO on agriculture are strongly felt since the agricultural sector constitutes a significant part of the GDP in each of the four nations. This section provides an overview of the crops affected and of the agricultural economic losses caused by ENSO. The ways in which agricultural losses affect other socio-economic sectors are also addressed.
CROPS AFFECTED
The heavy April to October rainfall of the 1997 ENSO event destroyed wheat crops in Chile. Drought in 1998 caused the loss of at least 8000 hectares of wheat fields [FAO, 2000]. As a result, wheat imports were increased. In January of the following year, however, precipitation returned to normal and the maize crops were unaffected [FAO, 1998]. In Peru, the most affected crops have been rice, sugar cane, cotton, potato, asparagus, mango, grape, and other fruits. Many of these products are grown for export. In 1997 the production of fruit decreased by 33% and that of vegetables by 9%. During 1982-1983, the volume of production of cotton was drastically reduced. Overall, the volume was reduced by 58.5%. In the city of Lambayeque the volume was reduced by 83% and in Piura by nearly 100% [CEPES, 1999]. During this same event, the national potato production was reduced by 23.5%. In the city of Puno, this production was reduced by 85% [NHRAIC, 2000]. As a result of heavy rainfall in Ecuador, small farm owners suffered losses in the production of rice, corn, coffee, soy, and cocoa [Vos, 1999]. Agricultural workers in the sugar cane industry and banana plantations also suffered losses [Vos, 1999]. Studies show that 14% of the total cropland was damaged [Vos, 1999]. Decreasing atmospheric temperatures and cloudiness had adverse effects on mango and other fruit plantations [Cornejo-Grunauer, 2000a]. In Colombia, in 1988, overflowing of the Sinú River produced floods that caused flooding to 69,000 hectares of cropland and cattle farm. [IDEAM, 1999a] As well, in the period from July 1988 to January 1989 an area of 700,000 hectares were flooded as a result of La Niña events [IDEAM, 1999a]. Furthermore, between 1970-1996, there has been a 7.3% and 6.8% reduction in the agricultural yield of African palm and barley, respectively. Other affected crops include rice, corn, cotton, and bananas [www.ideam.gov.co/web/informes/elninio /efectos/imp_econ1.html].
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ECONOMIC LOSSES
In Chile, losses in agricultural and livestock sectors between the years of 1994 and 1997 were estimated at US $250M [Comisión Nacional de Sequia, 1998]. In 1995 alone, the losses in the IXth and Xth regions were estimated at US $120M [Ramos, 1998]. Drought was responsible for these losses. By lessening the reserves of water, the drought affected both the potable water supply and the irrigation system. Thus between 1994 and 1997, the Chilean government spent US $70M in implementing five drought mitigation programs [Comision Nacional de Sequia, 1998]. Among other things, the programs allowed for the distribution of water and food for improvement to existing infrastructures for irrigation and water storage, and for a reduction in the economic losses directly derived from the droughts. The latter was achieved by means of supporting employment and strengthening the feeling of social security. Mr. G. Sepulveda, head of the Chilean Unit for Agriculture Emergencies, confirmed that the heavy rainfalls of June 2000 resulted in economic losses totalling US $7M for small farm owners. At the same time, the government was required to provide US $1M in food supplies for animals. Mr. Sepulveda went on to affirm that an advanced prediction of one week for such destructive events would greatly lessen the losses. However, although longer-term climate forecasts (1-3 months) might reduce the losses, there is little confidence in those forecasts.
In Peru, the hardest hit industrial sector in the 1997-1998 ENSO phenomenon was agriculture. In Peru, agriculture accounts for 12% of the Peruvian GDP. In 1998, the National Convention of Agriculture estimated that 35 000 hectares of crops were destroyed with losses estimated at US $545M [NHRAIC, 2000].
In Ecuador, most of the economic losses are attributed to the agriculture and infrastructure sectors [Vos, 1999]. Studies estimate that in the agricultural sector an approximate total of US $1.5B was lost due to ENSO-related effects [Olson, 1999].
In Colombia, the agricultural sector makes up 19% of the GDP. [www.odci.gov /cia/publications/factbook/co.html]. ENSO damages to the agricultural sector total approximately US $101M [CEPAL, 1999].
POSITIVE ENSO IMPACTS
It should be noted that some positive impacts have resulted from the ENSO phenomenon. For example, in both Peru and Ecuador, after large amounts of rain, vegetation is able to grow in areas that are typically arid. This vegetation can then be used to sustain cattle. La Niña effects are typically opposite that of El Niño. In Peru, for example low temperatures badly affect rice crops, however, cotton production experiences an increase of 45% during cold event years. The increases were documented in 1963, 1964 and 1996 [www.esig.ucar.edu/lanina/report/ordinola.html].
EFFECTS ON OTHER SOCIO-ECONOMIC SECTORS
The ENSO effects on agriculture had an impact on other socio-economic sectors.
64 • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution
In Ecuador for example, the losses in agriculture had a profound impact on employment and population migration. As a result of destruction of cultivated land, many farmers were forced to migrate to cities in search of work. In addition, unemployment rates increased. Some crops that could be harvested could not be transported as a result of road closures and destruction. The impassable nature of the roads made crop harvesting difficult. In Colombia, livestock was also affected by lack of food. As a result, there was considerable decrease in the amount of milk (4.9% annual) with El Nino’s arrival [www.ideam.gov.co/web/informes/elninio/efectos/imp_econ1.html]. In 1998, US $7M was lost due to ENSO damage on Columbian livestock [CEPAL, 1999]. The quality, quantity, and the distribution of raw materials were all adversely affected following ENSO-related effects.
3.4.2.2 FISHERIES
ENSO causes severe effects on the fish population of the coastal regions of the Eastern Pacific and specifically in Chile, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia. In 1997-1998, ENSO produced losses to the fisheries sectors that resulted in a worldwide shortage of fishmeal and fish oil [FAO, 1998]. Various climatic conditions, discussed in Chapter 1, are involved including elevated sea surface temperatures, a decrease in coastal upwelling due to shifting wind patterns, and a large increase in rainfall. These anomalies result in the death and migration of fish and sea bird populations during El Niño years, which may take as long as two years to recover.
NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF ENSO ON FISH POPULATION
CHANGES IN FISH POPULATION
Decreased levels of anchovies, horse mackerel, and small, shoaling pelagics were noted off the coasts of Chile. The yearly landing of anchovies, 15-35% of the total landing in Chile in 1988-1998, shows a negative correlation with the strongest ENSO events: 90% in 1983, -77% in 1987, -70% in 1998 [SERNAP, 1988, 1998]. The decrease in the landing of anchovies also has an indirect effect on the levels of production of salmon cultures since salmon are fed with products derived from anchovies. Reduced shrimp cultures were attributed to heavy rains and flooding. In addition, the increase in rainfall fuelled the growth of excess algae in the waters, which negatively affected the flavor of the fish.
During the 1982-83 ENSO event, anchovies, sardines, and prawns migrated south away from the central Peruvian coast. In Ecuador, pelagic fish stocks decreased by 57% between 1996 and 1997 due to southward migration of the fish population towards the Peru-Chile coastline [Cornejo-Grunauer, 2000b]. In Colombia, from 1976-1996, with each El Niño event, a 52% annual reduction in fish occurred for the Pacific coast and a 9% annual decrease for the Atlantic. [www.ideam.gov.co/web/informes/elninio /efectos/imp_econ2.html]
Furthermore periods of excessive rainfall during La Niña events tend to increase the numbers of fish, but also make fishing risky and difficult. As a result, the amount of fish
Summer Session Program 2000 ISU • ISU • 65 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution caught (in tons) are significantly reduced [IDEAM, 1999bwww.ideam.gov.co/web /informes/lanina/0.05.html]
Finally, it is important to note that a severe problem for the fishing industry is the long- term effect. If the seas are over fished during bad years, they may not be able to recuperate in the better years. It is very important to monitor the levels of fish and the amount that is being harvested to ensure that the industry and the wildlife will be able to rebound.
EFFECTS ON INFRASTRUCTURE
Losses and damage to public infrastructure greatly aggravated difficulties in transporting produce. In Chile, tidal waves and strong winds were responsible for damage to ships and equipment, especially in the small entrepreneurship sector. This consequently induced additional costs and reduced the landings [Comité intersectorial para el fenómeno el Niño, 1997].
In Peru, nearly 200 jetties along the coast were destroyed. This infrastructure is of vital importance to the traditional fishing sector, which employs about 250,000 people. In order for the Peruvian fisherman to continue to make their catch, they are forced to deeper waters. However, nearly half of the sector's roughly 5 000 boats are obsolete and can remain on the high sea for a maximum of just six hours. A large number of these boats were damaged due to strong storms caused by El Niño and the owners were unable to pay for their repair. As a result, they were forced to find work elsewhere [www.oneworld.org/ips2/aug98/20_41_080.html].
ECONOMIC LOSSES
The southern migration of pelagics south away from the central Peruvian coast resulted in the demise of the Peruvian anchovy fishery and the rise of the Chilean sardine industry [Glantz, 1991]. While this may have been beneficial to Chile, it was very difficult for Peru. In 1998, El Niño was responsible for approximately US $113M of damage on the fisheries in Chile. As a result of the drop in landing of anchovies in 1998, fishery plants closed down in the North of Chile in 1998 and unemployment and economic losses were severe [CPPS, March 1999]. Anchovies represent 80% of the total fish caught and Peru accounts for nearly half of the fish caught off the Latin American shores. It is one of the world's major fish exporters. However, as a result of El Niño, 1998 was a bad year for the fishing industry. There was a 69% decline over the corresponding period of 1997, which was already a 20% decline from 1996 [CEPES, 1999]. In Ecuador, the decrease in pelagic fish affected the fish meal production for feeding farms, resulting in the increase of imported fish meal [Cornejo-Grunauer, 2000b].
66 • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution
POSITIVE IMPACTS OF ENSO ON FISH POPULATION
While many ENSO-induced negative effects exist on the fisheries, several positive effects may also be noted. In Chile, warmer sea temperatures resulted in increased numbers of coastal shrimp and shellfish. In Peru, during the 1996 La Niña event, there were higher yields of anchovies and sardines [www.oneworld.org/ips2/aug98 /20_41_080.html]. In Ecuador, the most significant positive effect is observed in the shrimp farming industry. The 26% increase in the shrimp farms unaffected by ENSO, noted between November 1997 and June 1998, is a direct result of the constant and abundant supply of wild larva during 1997 and the beginning of 1998 due to favorable environmental conditions [Cornejo-Grunauer, 2000b].
ECONOMIC GAINS
With the increase in the anchovy and sardine catches in Peru came an increase in exports and a consequent positive influence on the fishing industry. In Ecuador, the 26% increase in shrimp farms led to a 26% increase in exports [Cornejo-Grunauer, 2000b]. In addition, a 40% increase in total exports was observed in 1997 with respect to the preceding year [Cornejo-Grunauer, 2000b].
3.4.3 SOCIAL SECTOR
ENSO effects in Chile, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia have a severe impact on the inhabitants. In 1998, a total of US $485M, US $205M, US $44M was lost due to ENSO- related damages on the social sector in Peru, Ecuador and Colombia respectively [Olson, 1999]. Numbers for Chile were not available. Mudslides, landslides, floods and drought have killed many, left some injured or missing. Infant mortality rates have also increased as a result. Damage to agricultural crops and livestock has caused mass displacement and migration of regional population groups to unaffected areas. In addition, the decrease in agricultural produce and destruction of cultivated land has affected unemployment and underemployment rates. ENSO effects have disabled infrastructure such as sanitation and hygiene systems giving rise to a swell of epidemics and diseases. As a result, public health of certain population groups within the South American coastal region has been severely affected.
HOUSING
In Chile, as a result of a flooding in June 97, 17,000 houses were damaged and 684 were completely destroyed [www.vita.org/disaster/sitrep/97a/0052.html]. 11,000 people were moved into schools and churches for shelter and over 20 casualties were reported [www.vita.org/disaster/sitrep/97a/0054.html].
In June 2000, 10,000 Chileans were moved to shelters during the heavy rainfall in regions V, VII, IX, and X of the country. In Peru during the 1997-1998 ENSO event, official reports cite that 50 000 homes succumbed to severe floods and mudslides. Although the government invested US $300M in preventive action, results show that preventive funds were insufficient [NHRAIC, 2000]. In 1997, floods hit 90% of Ica, a
Summer Session Program 2000 ISU • ISU • 67 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution desert town of 160 000 people. Shantytowns were not built for rain and were demolished. About 14 000 adobe homes were also destroyed. Four people died as a result. Fifteen more residents disappeared, and tens of thousands fled their homes, sometimes to shelters without electricity or running water [library.thinkquest.org /17865/s_america/peru.html]. In Ecuador, heavy rains in the coastal and southern provinces led to severe flooding and mudslides that claimed the lives of 90 people [library.thinkquest.org/17865/s_America/Ecuador.html]. CEPAL reported that 18 000 families were left homeless at one time or another during the phenomenon and 6 000 families lost their homes entirely [Olson, 1999]. CEPAL estimates that a total of US$23M in housing losses were incurred by ENSO [Olson, 1999]. In Colombia, US $4M was lost due to El Nino damage on houses [Olson, 1999].
Figure 3-3 Collapse of Houses in Ica, Peru. Source: International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies www.ifrc.org/docs/news/98/98030602/ SCHOOLS
In Peru, in 1983, 875 schools were affected at an estimated cost of US $6M [CEPES, 1999]. In Ecuador, schools were lost to flooding and were used as emergency shelter to hundreds of families. The CEPAL analysis suggests that US $15M was lost in damage to educational institutions [Olson, 1999].
EMPLOYMENT
In Ecuador, owners of small farms and day laborers in southern and coastal Ecuador suffered the greatest losses [Vos, 1999]. In many families, males migrated to cities in search of work, leaving their wives responsible for households in disaster areas. It has been shown that within the Ecuadorian economy, the agriculture and infrastructure sectors have been the most affected by the ENSO phenomenon. An analysis of damage demonstrates that self-employed farmers and agricultural workers in rice, corn, banana, coffee, sugar cane and other crops have been the most severely affected. In
68 • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution terms of livestock production, it is difficult for poorer farmers to relocate their cattle to areas that are free of flooding [Vos, 1999].
The 1997-1998 ENSO phenomenon increased the unemployment and under- employment rates [Vos, 1999]. Emigration from the countryside to the cities further aggravated the employment conditions. It should be noted that half of those affected by the phenomenon are wage earners in the sugar cane and banana industry. One third of those affected are temporary workers, generally in the rice industry. The remainder of the affected population are paid family workers [Vos, 1999]. 12 000 workers in labor industries were left temporarily out of work as a result of the 1997-1998 ENSO phenomenon [Vos, 1999]. 53% of the crop land was deemed worthless after disaster struck, leading to job losses in the agriculture sector [Vos, 1999]. Studies suggest that the total foregone earnings of effected workers is US $650M [Vos, 1999].
For those below the poverty line, ENSO impacts are even more severe since living conditions are more precarious and considerably less accessible to reliable infrastructure [Vos, 1999]. The population below the poverty line is 54%, 35%, 17.7%, and 20.5% for Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Chile respectively (www.odci.gov /cia/publications/factbook/country.html). Furthermore, as a result of the 1997-1998 ENSO phenomenon, even more habitants fell below the poverty line. For example, in Ecuador, studies have shown that an additional 120 000 habitants fell below the poverty line after disaster conditions [Vos, 1999]. Lives were lost and various sectors including housing, education and labor were significantly affected.
HEALTH
Both El Niño and La Niña greatly impact the health of individuals living in affected areas. The World Health Organization reports “quantitative leaps” in the incidence of malaria around the world, coincident with extreme weather events associated with El Niño. ENSO brought about increases in cases of malaria, cholera, dengue fever, diarrhea and leptospirosis.
CAUSES
The increases in illness are due to a variety of causes, including contaminated drinking water, reduced agricultural output, and damaged housing and medical facilities. Some areas throughout Chile, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia have been left without potable water due to a breakdown of water and drainage systems. Diseases are spread by mosquitoes and bacteria in the stagnant floodwaters and destroyed towns. High temperatures also increase the insect population available to transmit epidemics and diseases. The mosquitoes that transmit disease are generally only found in tropical areas, but the stagnant waters generated by the heavy rains have allowed reproduction in other areas. As a result, El Niño is being blamed for a sudden rise in infectious diseases and the appearance of new illnesses. No epidemic illnesses were reported in Chile just after the heavy rains in June 1997 [www.vita.org/disaster/sitrep /97a/0053.html]. However, there was an increased demand for medical staff and supplies within the Chilean health care system.
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In Peru, 39 children have died as a result of these diseases [www.oneworld.org/ips2 /mar98/peru.html]. In Ecuador, an estimated quarter of the total population suffered increased health risks as a result of the ENSO phenomenon [Vos, 1999]. In Colombia, in 1998, a total of US $41M was lost due to ENSO-related damages on health [CEPAL, 1999].
EXAMPLES
The Chilean Ministry of Health reported that an outbreak of cholera started at the end of December 1997 in the North of Chile close to the border with Bolivia. The previous outbreak occurred in 1993 when 32 cases were reported [www.who.int/disease- outbreak-news/n1998/jan/n12jan1998a.html].
The World Health Organization (WHO) reports the following cases of cholera in 1997, 1998 and 1999. (www.who.int/emc/diseases/cholera/choltbl1999.html,www.who.int/emc /diseases/cholera/choltbl1998.html,www.who.int/emc/diseases/cholera/choltbl1997.html)
Table 3-2 Cholera Cases
Cases/Deaths 1997as of 26/3/98 1998as of 9/6/99 1999as of 31/3/00
Colombia 1082 / 25 442 / 7 42 / N.A.
Ecuador N.A. /N.A. 3724 / 37 90 /N.A.
Peru 3483 / 29 41717 / 384 1546 / 6
Chile 4 / 0 24 / 2 N.A. /N.A.
The increase in the number of persons struck down by malaria and dengue fever are very alarming. Outbreaks of malaria can be explained in terms of precipitation decrease and air temperature increase, both factors favoring the ecological, biological and entomological components of these diseases.
In Peru, hundreds of cases of malaria were reported in northern coastal regions [www.oneworld.org/ips2/mar98/peru.html]. In Peru, twin outbreaks of cholera and another unidentified fever have spread in El Niño affected areas, killing at least twenty- seven people and infecting hundreds more. Health officials are constantly monitoring flooded areas, but they reach less than 10 percent of those affected by flooding. It is also very difficult to reach everyone when so many are forced to flee their homes. Severe flooding poses an additional health threat. In Peru, during the 1997-1998 event, a cemetery was washed away and carried the decomposing bodies into the city of Trujillo [www.oneworld.org/ips2/mar98/peru.html]. This posed a severe, yet unforeseen health risk. La Niña also greatly impacts the health sector because of the higher numbers of bronchial diseases and respiratory illnesses that occur. This is especially seen in central and southern Peru where the humidity is higher. In Ecuador, 12 cases of cholera have been reported in the coastal areas of Ecuador. In the province of Guayas
70 • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution in Ecuador, 5 deaths from leptospirosis were reported [darwin.bio.uci.edu/~sustain /Enso97/Ecua.html].
In Colombia increases of up to 20% in the incidence of Malaria have been recorded in the year following an El Niño (www.who.int/inf-fs/en/fact192.html).
The losses in agriculture in Ecuador led to increased rural poverty and malnutrition. As a result, high infant mortality rates ensue. The 1982-1983 ENSO phenomenon resulted in an increase in infant mortality. In affected regions, the infant mortality rate increased from 52 deaths in a thousand to 65 deaths in a thousand after the disaster [Vos, 1999].
3.4.4 INDIRECT EFFECTS
Indirect effects such as the political and economic climate of a country can greatly impact how government or institutions respond to the ENSO phenomenon. In Ecuador and Peru noteworthy political conditions may have slowed the prevention and mitigation process.
The impacts of ENSO have great significance politically. In 2000, President Fujimori ran for re-election. A great amount of effort was put forth towards preparation to minimize the impacts of El Niño on the Peruvian people. It was speculated that this was more politically motivated than anything else. If the impacts were minimal, he would be seen favorably for the forethought and effort put forth to help the people. If the impacts were large, he would be accused of improperly preparing the people and/or wasting the money [NHRAIC, 2000].
The political situation during the mid-nineties in Ecuador proved to be a difficult time. Both internal and external situations hindered the government from helping those affected by ENSO. During 1995, a dispute with Peru concerning an ill-defined border erupted into a full-scale war. Money, which could have been put towards mitigating or preventing 1997-1998 ENSO effects, was spent on warfare and defense systems [Cornejo-Grunauer, 2000a].
The unstable political climate in Ecuador could be attributed to the many changes in governmental rule during the period between 1996 and 1998 [Cornejo-Grunauer, 2000a]. In August 1996 Abdala Bucaram was elected into office only to be overthrown in February 1997 by the Ecuadorian army. Fabian Alarcon, president of Congress was appointed temporary president to replace the ousted Bucaram. However, in August 1998, Jamil Mahuad was elected as president and remained in office until January 2000 [Cornejo-Grunauer, 2000a]. It was during Alarcon´s reign that ENSO-related effects devastated areas of southern and coastal Ecuador. Coupled with Alarcon´s weak government and the volatile political climate of the time, this gave the government little time to devote to those affected by ENSO [Cornejo-Grunauer, 2000a].
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3.5 PREPARATION AND MITIGATION
In Chile, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia, significant economic losses are related to people and possessions. However, there is an additional financial blow resulting in the amount of money being spent on preparatory methods and mitigation. In general, there is great difficulty in planning preparatory efforts. Predictions are difficult because each El Niño is different. It may affect different parts of the country and it may have varying impacts on individual industrial sectors.
Mitigation efforts require a great amount of cooperation between institutions, government, local authorities, and individuals. Communication and accurate information is very important between these entities such that resources can be allocated where they are most needed. Unfortunately, in the current system, these may not always be present.
National Emergencies Office of the Ministry of Interiors (ONEMI) plays an important role in planning and responding to natural disasters in Chile. In fact, in early 1998, ONEMI and the Ministry of Housing attempted to predict and plan for the effects of El Niño on each of the 13 regions of Chile [Castillo, 1998]. Their predictions were based on the available weather forecasts and were geared towards preparation for heavy rainfall during June and July of 1998. However, the El Niño conditions inverted during June of 1998, and the forecasts proved invalid.
Flooding and mudslides always cause a wide range of severe impacts that could be reduced by preparatory measures such as new infrastructures or better land management. Among the factors responsible for more severe damages are growth of cities in vulnerable areas, poor infrastructure in potentially risky places, and failing to identify sources of risk as environmental conditions change. An example of the latter is the drying of soil or decrease of vegetation, which increases the risk of mudslide formation [Comite intersectorial para el fenómeno el Niño, 1997]. The mentioned factors can be estimated by integrating information such as terrain elevation, land cover, land use, geology, and soil. Such information can be derived from remotely sensed data.
Peru did not really learn from the past 1982-1983 ENSO event. All the infrastructure and economic assets lost were simply repaired or replaced in situ, without serious thought given to mitigate future ENSOs. Nevertheless, the greatest learning occurred in the scientific communities. The different losses led the Peruvian government to set up a network incorporating scientific expertise into the policy process. In order to mitigate the 1997-1998 ENSO phenomenon, President Alberto Fujimori and his administration spent US $300M in advance (not all in the right places, but at least the ones that looked right at the time) [NHRAIC, 2000].
In Peru, two major problems are at the origin of the delay and the inefficiency of the mitigation of the 1997-1998 ENSO event:
It took international news media reporting to stimulate/convince the government to consider its implications.
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The government set up new response organizations and structures that sidelined and demoralized INDECI (National Civil Defense Office), the organization previously and supposedly charged with disaster response.
After the devastation of the 1982-1983 ENSO phenomenon in Ecuador, the Ecuadorian government assembled a Contingency Plan to cope with the upcoming 1997-1998 ENSO phenomenon and declared a state of emergency in July 1997 [Vos, 1999]. A budget of US$ 318M, US$ 231M of which was in the form of loans, was used for both relief and reconstruction. Despite efforts and funding expended in preparation, the 1997-1998 ENSO proved to be more severe than the Contingency Plan had anticipated [Vos, 1999]. Suggestions made by the government may have been too vague and unfocused. Although the Contingency Plan estimated that 6.5 million people (57% of the Ecuadorian population) would be at risk during the 1997-1998 phenomenon, it failed to specify the appropriate responses for different impact types and population groups. This suggests that a more profound analysis of the various population groups and settlements should be conducted so that an appropriate preparation plan can be implemented for the varying peoples [Vos, 1999].
3.6 FINDINGS
Since Chile is the focus of this case study, the decision was made to address ENSO effects in each of the four countries of the South American Pacific coastal regions. From an impact-standpoint, Ecuador and Peru were far more affected by ENSO than Chile and are in greater need of recommendations and suggestions.
The following findings provide some suggestions to help alleviate ENSO-induced effects in the South American Pacific coastal regions.
1. Interaction with those affected must be achieved in order to assess the needs of certain regional groups. As an example, in Ecuador, a US $318M Contingency Plan was established after the 1982-1983 ENSO event in preparation for the 1997-1998 ENSO phenomenon. The adverse impacts suffered by Ecuador from the 1997-1998 event indicate that the Contingency Plan was unsatisfactory. This may have been due to the fact that the Plan was too general and unfocused [Vos, 1999]. Since economics, politics, climate, industry, infrastructure, and people differ from region to region, specialists must be called into the affected communities to discuss how a preventive plan can be tailored to address the needs of the people native to each community. 2. Prediction of ENSO and transmission of this information is crucial to prevent and mitigate ENSO-induced effects. Those affected in rural regions must be informed via radio or in the form of literature. As an example, ENSO impacts in the United States may be less severe since the affected population is forewarned via television, newspapers, radio, and the Internet. One novel method of information dissemination is via a school-based program called GLOBE [www.globe.gov]. The use of educational programs such as GLOBE can more readily facilitate the transmission of ENSO forewarnings so that communities can better prepare themselves. Preparative or preventive measures, such as
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boarding houses or constructing temporary dykes, can be taken to help soften the blow of ENSO. In some cases, preparation is all that is required to greatly allay the severity of negative impacts. 3. The use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) can be used more effectively to trace migration of population and fish. In addition, GIS can also monitor sea-surface temperatures, the spread of human diseases, and the extent of natural disasters. Remotely sensed data regarding terrain elevation, land cover, land use, and geology would be helpful in preparing for ENSO´s effects. Information obtained through GIS can be used to establish preventative actions to aid in preparing or mitigating negative ENSO impacts. Integration of GIS with land-based systems will facilitate communication between individuals who extract the data and leaders and decision makers of affected communities. Improved communication between affected persons and users of space technology responsible for predicting ENSO must be implemented. 4. Production of ENSO-related thematic maps from GIS techniques to assist as a mitigation measure for landuse planning.
In terms of mitigation, the following low-cost proposals may be implementable at the community level:
1. Storage of potable water in advance of drought or flooding. In Peru and Ecuador, ENSO impacts disabled many sewage and sanitary systems, greatly diminishing the supply of potable water [Vos, 1999]. The absence of potable water led to the spread of epidemics and diseases. 2. Vaccinations and prophylaxis against malaria, cholera, dengue fever and leptospirosis can be administered to population groups in affected regions. 3. Construction of temporary dams or dykes using low-cost materials such as sand bags for areas affected by floods. 4. Call for supplies (i.e. blankets, vaccines, non-perishable foods, etc.) from national or international agencies. 5. Low-cost solutions for diseases such as saline solutions for diarrhea. These proposals reflect some of the needs that have been identified with regards to preventing and mitigating ENSO effects on the people of the South American Pacific coast. As illustrated above, the effects of ENSO are non-trivial; human lives are unquestionably impacted and are tragically lost. The loss is a tragedy because many of the negative effects of ENSO are preventable or can be diminished through the use of prediction and disaster monitoring technology. This analysis provides a direction and a driving force for the implementation of the technological tools described in the following chapter. The effectiveness of the ENSO preventive measures depends on the efficiency of technology prediction systems, and on the ability of regional, national, and international initiatives to meet the needs of the people via inter-sectorial coordination measures.
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3.7 REFERENCES
American Red Cross (WWW document) www.redcross.org Castillo Vicencio Arturo, 1998. La retirada de El Niño in Ercilla n.3084, 4th May, 1998. CEPAL (1998), Estudio Económico de América Latina y el Caribe 1997-1998, LC/G.2032-P, Santiago de Chile, September 1998. CEPAL (1999), Efectos Macroeconómicos del Fenómeno El Niño de 1997-1998. Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe, February 1999. Chile – Floods, DHA - Geneva Situation Report No.1, 24 June 1997 (WWW document) www.vita.org/disaster/sitrep/97a/0052.html (accessed 20 August 2000) Chile – Floods, DHA - Geneva Situation Report No. 1, 25 June 1997(WWW document). www.vita.org/disaster/sitrep/97a/0052.html (accessed 20 August 2000) Chile – Floods, DHA - Geneva Situation Report No. 3, 26 June 1997(WWW document). www.vita.org/disaster/sitrep/97a/0054.html (accessed 20 August 2000) Chile - Floods, OCHA Situation Report No. 3, 12 July 2000 (WWW document). www.vita.org/disaster/sitrep/0009.html (accessed 20 August 2000) Comisión Nacional de Sequía y Instituto Interamericano de Cooperación para la Agricultura (1998). Sequía 1994-1997 – Lecciones y experiencias. Comisión Oceanográfica Intergubernamental (1999). GRUPO MIXTO DE TRABAJO COI-OMM-CPPS sobre las investigaciones relativas a “El Niño”, Reunion Extraordinaria de Expertos, Concepción, Chile, 9-13 August 1999. COI/OMM/CPPS – Exp JWG 99/3 prov. Comité intersectorial para el fenómeno el Niño (1997). Informe técnico de la subcomisión científica, November 1997. Cornejo-Grunauer, M.P. (2000). Personal Communication. (email dated 17August 2000) Cornejo-Grunauer, M.P. et al. (2000). Extreme Climatic Events: El Niño and La Niña Effects on the Ecuadorian Shrimp Industry. (unpublished). CPPS (1999). Informe final, March 1999. Ecuador – 1997-98 ENSO Damage Summary for Ecuador (WWW document). www.esig.ucar.edu/un/ecuador/damage.html (accessed 9 August 2000) FAO (2000). 26a Conferencia Regional de la FAO para América Latina y el Caribe. IDEAM (1999a). El Fenómeno Frío del Pacifico “La Niña” – Generalidades del Efecto del Fenómeno Frío del Pacífico Sobre el Medio Natural del Territorio Colombiano (WWW document). www.ideam.gov.co/web/informes/lanina/0.04.html. IDEAM (1999b). El Fenómeno Frío del Pacifico “La Niña” Impactos Socioeconómicos de un Fenómeno Frío del Pacífico “La Niña” en Colombia (WWW document) www.ideam.gov.co/web/informes/lanina/0.05.htm. Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales (WWW document) www.ideam.gov.co/web/informes/elninio/efectos/imp_econ1.html Olson, R.S. et al. (1999). The Marginalization of Disaster Response Institutions The 1997-1998 El Niño Experience in Peru, Bolivia, and Ecuador. Natural Hazards Research and Applications Information Center, Colorado. Options for State Control Policies and a Flood Control Program by Vermont Agency of Natural Resources, Department of Environmental Conservation, Waterbury, Vermont ,January, 1999 (WWW document). www.anr.state.vt.us/flood_control Peru – ECONOMY-PERU: Overfishing, El Nino, Threaten Fishing Industry (WWW document). www.oneworld.org/ips2/aug98/20_41_080.html (accessed 7 August 2000). Peru – The Consequences of Cold Events for Peru (WWW document) www.esig.ucar.edu/lanina/report/ordinola.html (accessed 9 August 2000) Peru – HEALTH-PERU: Blame it on El Nino (WWW document) www.oneworld.org/ips2/mar98/peru.html (accessed 20 August 2000) Peru – Links, 1997-98 ENSO Impacts in Peru (WWW document) www.esig.ucar.edu/un/peru/index.html (accessed 12 August 2000) Peru – Statistics on Peru by World Bank (WWW document) www.worldbank.org/data/countrydata/littledata/175.pdf (accessed 1 August 2000) Peru – Impacts of El Niño in Peru (WWW document) library.thinkquest.org/17865/s_america/peru.htm (accessed 15 August 2000) Peru - El Niño phenomenon by the CEPES (in Spanish) (WWW document) ekeko.rcp.net.pe/cepes-el-nino/ (accessed 15 August 2000)
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Peru - El Niño in the North of Peru (in Spanish) (WWW document) www.cipca.org.pe/el_nino/ (accessed 15 August 2000) Peru - Statistics about Health in Peru ,Tables and Maps (in Spanish) (WWW document) www.minsa.gob.pe/estadisticas/ (accessed 15 August 2000) Peru - Newspapers Articles about the disasters caused by El Niño (in Spanish) (WWW document) ekeko.rcp.net.pe/rcp/PRENSA/ica/index-mapa.htm (accessed 15 August 2000) Peru - The Marginalization of Disaster Response Institutions (WWW document) www.colorado.edu/hazards (in English) and www.crid.or.cr (in Spanish) (accessed 15 August 2000) Peru - ECONOMY-PERU: Overfishing, El Nino, Threaten, Fishing Industry (WWW document) www.oneworld.org/ips2/aug98/20_41_080.html (accessed 11 August 2000) Peru - HEALTH-PERU: Blame it on El Nino (WWW document) www.oneworld.org/ips2/mar98/peru.html (accessed 16 August 2000) Peru - The Consequences of Cold Events for Peru (WWW document) www.esig.ucar.edu/lanina/report/ordinola.html (accessed 14 August 2000) Ramos, C.G. (1998). Males de Familia, Que pasa, 4th July 98. Sepúlveda, G. (2000). Personal Communication. 14 August 2000. SERNAP (1988). Anuario estadistico de pesca 1988. SERNAP (1998). Anuario estadistico de pesca 1998. Update on FAO´s activities in relation to the 1997/98 El Nino, July 1998 (WWW document) www.fao.org/NEWS/1998/elnin2-e.htm (accessed 20 August 2000) The Globe Program (WWW document) www.globe.gov Vos, R. et al. (1999). Economic and Social Effects of El Nino in Ecuador, 1997-1998. Inter-American Development Bank Sustainable Development Department Technical Paper Series.
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4 ENSO AND TECHNOLOGY
4.1 INTRODUCTION
The complexity of the ENSO phenomenon has been described in the first chapter of this report, which outlined the dynamic interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean. The previous chapter discussed the impacts of ENSO on both a global scale and local scale, with a focus on how ENSO affects the social structures, economies, and environment on the Pacific coast of South America.
ENSO presents a difficult challenge for the engineering and scientific community. Technology is required to provide tools to effectively predict, track, understand and mitigate the ENSO phenomenon. However, many challenges must be considered when discussing technology related to ENSO. In terms of scale, trade offs must be made among global, regional, and local monitoring and planning activities. In addition, availability and usability must be assessed in terms of appropriate technology transfer for ENSO investigations.
This chapter will investigate the current technology available for monitoring and tracking the ENSO phenomenon, with a focus on climate modeling and expert systems. Data gathering and distribution systems will be discussed, in an effort to show how the data provided by these systems meets the requirements of the scientific community. In particular, consideration will be given to space assets and the role of space technology in ENSO monitoring and data collection. Finally, current gaps in existing technology will be addressed to assess its applicability to the South American coastal countries considered in this report.
4.2 FORECASTING AND APPLICATIONS
4.2.1 CLIMATE FORECASTING
Due to the dynamic nature of our atmosphere, weather forecasts are often inaccurate beyond one or two weeks. It has been demonstrated by the TOGA (Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere) program that the seasonal climatic variations related to ENSO can be predicted in the longer term due to the slowly evolving nature of the oceans, and the strong coupling existing between the atmosphere and oceans [US National Research Council, 1996].
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Climate forecasting systems are used to predict climatic variations on a seasonal, and possibly inter-seasonal timeframe. The ENSO phenomenon falls under this category and therefore should also be predictable by these types of systems.
It is important to make a distinction between models and systems:
A model is the assembly of mathematical relations representing the phenomenon or a part of it and its behavior according to a set of input data
A forecasting system is the integrated assembly of models, data management systems, and procedures used to manage the process to produce a prediction
4.2.1.1 FORECASTING MODELS
ENSO is the largest natural inter-annual climate fluctuation. Considering the ENSO impact on a global scale, Dong et al [2000] investigated the hypothesis that the anomalous conditions in the North Atlantic sector during the winters of 1997/1998 and 1998/1999 were related to the ENSO cycle. It is necessary to utilize a global model to comprehend the ENSO phenomenon. A comprehensive description of ENSO modeling was done by the National Research Council [1996], and was summarized in chapter one of this report. The objective of this section is to summarize the most important features of forecast models.
The introduction of a coupled atmosphere-ocean model advanced the modeling of ENSO in the scientific community. The critical parameter for this model is the sea surface temperature (SST). Atmospheric fluctuations are highly correlated with the inter- annual SST variations. The simulation of the SST in response to the observed winds is crucial for the model. Principal features to be taken into account in order to simulate the SST variations in a dynamic ocean model are threefold: accuracy of the heat and momentum fluxes at the surface, extent of ocean upwelling and upper-ocean thermal structure, and good parameterization of the upper-ocean mixing. Further research is required to understand and characterize the heat transfer between the atmosphere, the ocean, and land.
A good indication of the validity of the coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere is the ability of the atmospheric model to reproduce the correct heat and momentum transfer in response to SST. The cumulus convection, the boundary layers in both the ocean and the atmosphere, and the interaction between radiation and clouds must be considered. The cloud-radiation interaction is crucial to determine the correct temperature distribution of the atmosphere and to simulate the correct radiative fluxes reaching the surface. Unfortunately, the horizontal grid (resolution of the order of 200 km approximately 120 miles) used in the numerical simulations is too coarse for the cumulus clouds to be resolved [Philander, 1990]. This represents a serious limitation to the atmospheric models and the interaction with the ocean.
With respect to atmospheric models, complication often results due to the number of parameters and their respective impact on the atmosphere. The most sophisticated models of the atmosphere are the General Circulation Models (GCMs). They realistically
78 • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution simulate the Southern Oscillation and demonstrate that it is caused by variations of the SST. Nevertheless, they are so complex that it is required to break them down into simpler models. Those simpler models are necessary to isolate and study the role of the physical processes involved. An important criterion for the validation of the model is the ability to predict the correct amounts and locations of rain events. There are three different types of models to describe the atmosphere [Philander, 1990]. All three types give similar results to a first order approximation, and it is unclear which one corresponds the best to the atmosphere.
The models discussed describe different dynamic and physical properties. For example, each model deals with one of the following: atmospheric dynamics, horizontal diffusion, vertical diffusion, gravity-wave drag, radiation, convection, cloud formation, precipitation, sea ice, snow cover, surface fluxes, and chemistry.
Due to the strong influence of the SST in the coupling between atmosphere and the ocean, any ocean model reproducing the correct SST can be used with any atmospheric model. The global atmosphere variability is essentially directed by the SST variations. This means that only the ocean components are used to initialize the coupled models, because the initial state of the atmosphere is no longer related to the atmospheric state after two weeks of simulation.
Measurement systems should be able to quickly and clearly identify and define relevant climatic anomalies [McPhaden, 1999; Smith, 1999]. For this reason, there is a need for improved spatial and temporal coverage, as well as accurate and complete historical records of data in order to determine mean values.
4.2.1.2 FORECASTING SYSTEMS
Several groups are now producing routine ENSO forecasts [Anderson, 1999]. Among these, the following centers are listed as the most evolved ones in terms of forecasting systems. However, many other models are currently run on a regular basis in different research institutes:
European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): this institution started an experimental program in seasonal prediction in 1995 and provides forecasts on a 6 month time span every month, but a full operational schedule has not yet been implemented. Their predictions are available on the internet. Although they welcome feedback from potential users, they give a clear disclaimer statement on accuracy and precision at www.ecmwf.int/.
Bureau of Meteorology Research Center in Melbourne (BMRC): this center provides regular forecasts based on a self-developed coupled GCM [www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/index.htm].
NASA Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP): this project operates at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Predictions for the next 6 months are regularly published but a real application mode of the system is missing. Long-
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term predictions are being developed but they need further validation [www.nsipp.gsfc.nasa.gov/enso/index.html ].
Scripps Institution of Oceanography: this research institute provides forecasts on the web the first week of every month. These forecasts are clearly defined as a result of ongoing research, and according to the institute itself, decision-makers (both public and private), should not use them [www.ecpc.ucsd.edu/].
US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP): this center provides forecasts on a regular monthly basis. They also provide a monthly forecast forum where forecasts of different models are reported and compared. Although they provide advice to potential users regarding the modest skills of the predictive information, this system appears to be the most advanced in terms of operational status. They also provide data collection and integration services for areas outside the US. [www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/]
Maintaining an operational model requires a constant evaluation of its capacity for prediction. The Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction (CDEP) program tries to make critical contributions to different aspects of climate prediction [www.ogp.noaa.gov /mpe/cdep/]. Similarly, the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) assesses the ability of 29 global climate models to simulate various aspects in climate prediction [Lau et al, 1996].
4.2.1.3 DATA REQUIREMENTS FOR CLIMATE FORECASTING
Data requirements are demanding for climate forecasting applications and it is clear that no single organization would be able to have its own data collection system. Data is an essential part of the initialization process of the forecasting model, and also constitutes a major input to the validation process. Detailed model and data comparisons are required, and the availability of appropriate data is crucial. The importance of the following characteristics is common to all types of data:
Real-time availability, though desirable, is not mandatory. Delays from a day to a few weeks are tolerable if this is compensated by increased data quality.
Increased spatial and temporal resolution are beneficial only to forecasting systems.
Sustained observations are the most desirable feature for climate forecasting systems. A strong commitment to long-term observations and archiving is essential.
Regarding specific data types, the following considerations apply [Anderson, 1999; McPhaden, 1999]:
Sea Surface Temperature: this parameter is vital for seasonal forecasting. Availability is strongly dependent on density and quality of in-situ systems, and clear skies for data gathered from NOAA satellites. Although other errors seem to
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dominate in existing models, improvement in SST acquisition is required [Anderson, 1999].
Sub-surface temperature: this is the key data type used in present day forecasting systems and therefore a sustained observation system is important. An appropriate level of reliability or redundancy in acquisition systems is deemed to be crucial since a temporary lack of data is detrimental when trying to correct intrinsic model biases. Highest priority should be given to equatorial oceans without excluding extra-tropical regions.
Salinity: salinity data is not used in most of the models (e.g. NCEP, ECMWF). However, the addition of salinity information in the interpretation of the data contributes to better assimilation of the altimetry data, and improved temperature estimations. Salinity analysis at surface level might be possible by combining surface ship measurements and data from moored buoys. From a long-term perspective, salinity measurements from space-based systems are desirable due to available spatial coverage.
Altimetry data: evidence exists demonstrating that altimetry data could be beneficial, but use of this data is limited at present.
Forcing fields: wind stress is vital for model initialization and present data are less accurate than is needed to give a good ocean analysis. Although data requirements are not fully clarified by modelers, scatterometry from space systems seems to have good potential in this direction.
Ocean current velocity data: ocean velocity data is not extensively used for forecasting models, but they are essential in the validation process of such models.
4.2.1.4 LOCAL PERSPECTIVES
The use of climate prediction has been proven useful on a global scale, and Moura (1998) reports some applications specific to South America where Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC) of the Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), part of the research institutions of the Brazilian Ministry of Science and Technology develops, has been producing and disseminating seasonal climate forecast information since 1995. CPTEC/INPE is a leader in operational meteorology and climate research in South America. Relevant international collaborations in seasonal climate prediction have been established with ECMWF, University of Buenos Aires, Argentina, and other institutions. This center is actively participating in the research program on Climate Variability and Predictability for the 21st Century (CLIVAR). Every month, a five-month climatic prediction is issued by the center. Products are available at the CPTEC web site (www.cptec.inpe.br/). The institution plans to operationally run the climate forecasting system and evolve to a coupled ocean-atmosphere model.
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Further to the considerations forecasting, data gathering and distribution, there are two aspects that shall be considered in this section: downscaling from global to local predictions, and user feedback to forecasters.
Climate forecasting systems make use of global models that focus on large geographic areas, if not the whole oceanic system. Therefore, local knowledge and expertise is important in assessing forecasts and translating them into realistic statements about local and regional conditions. This downscaling process can be done, however there is no evidence that it is done on a regular basis in the South American West Coast countries studied in this report. This may be due to a lack of research development and infrastructure at regional levels [Moura, 1998].
From a user point of view, the variety of forecasts from different institutions shows the efforts dedicated to the ENSO problem. However, many sources of information and diverging predictions can result in confusing forecasts. The need for a tighter link between forecasting community and users is clearly evident. All entities must act as partners in defining the evolution process of climate forecasting systems into fully reliable and operational systems.
Continuous and consistent user feedback to forecasters is also essential in the implementation of an operational climate information system. With this, the following characteristics must be considered:
Forecast producers shall be committed to provide the predictions as a service on a regular basis, and not as a result of research and development activities.
The prediction model and the procedures to run it shall have undergone an extensive validation process requiring time, data availability, and quality control.
The information and data flow upstream from the predictions (data acquisition, integration, and distribution systems) shall be flagged as operational as well. A reliable and sustainable service is mandatory.
Downscaling from a global outlook to a regional forecast shall be provided to exploit the advantages offered by climate predictions.
Climate prediction models are powerful tools for several reasons. They can provide predictions, and are also used to determine sensitivity of the atmosphere to the different parameters (e.g. SST). TOGA created operational climate predictions, but the program is no longer active. A new program, GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System), is aimed to continue research on ENSO and increase the capability of prediction systems [www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/realtime.html ]. After TOGA, scientists demonstrated sufficient skills in predicting aspects of ENSO. Given the above analysis, climate predictions can be translated into operational management of the ENSO phenomenon on global and regional scales.
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4.2.2 APPLICATIONS
4.2.2.1 EXPERT SYSTEMS
As the research performed in this project has shown, the ENSO phenomenon affects most of the world, including South America. The effects vary in form and magnitude, but it is clear that the primary sectors of production, like agriculture, fisheries and farming, are the most affected. This can create a shortage in resources, and have an impact on local economies and social structures. In this section of the report, systems are defined to reduce economic loss by facilitating an increase in productivity for these sectors. As the reader will see, the methodologies presented here may be adapted to address many different problems associated with ENSO.
The systems discussed in this section are known as ¨Expert Systems¨. They are currently in use in many different countries and have been proven useful, for example to increase the yields of production [www.potato.claes.sci.eg/claes.htm ]. The research and development in this field is carried out mainly in developed countries, with increasing attention towards developing countries which are often affected the most severely by the ENSO climatic phenomenon.
WHAT ARE EXPERT SYSTEMS?
An Expert System, also called a Knowledge Based System, is a computer program designed to simulate the problem-solving behavior of a human expert. In agriculture or fisheries, expert systems unite the accumulated expertise of individual disciplines into a framework that best addresses specific, on-site needs of users. Expert systems combine experience and knowledge with intuitive reasoning skills from a multitude of specialists to aid producers in making the best decisions.
As an example of an Expert System, several studies performed in Egypt have shown that the knowledge level of the tomato growers was less than 65% of the existent knowledge developed using an Expert System [www.potato.claes.sci.eg/claes.htm ]. This clearly demonstrates the need for a tool to disseminate the information among farmers and industry. The sector where most of this knowledge is sought is insecticide use and side effects, crop protection, and agriculture marketing. This kind of information is not available at local levels, therefore government agencies, experts and research centers must be involved in information dissemination. Expert System technology will assist in this process.
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Data Acquisition Global Climate Model
Temperature & Moisture Additional Data,GIS Atmospheric Pressure Profiles Wind Profiles Local Downscaling Sea Surface Temperature Sea Chlorophyll Sea Surface Height Topography Etc. Vegetation & Soil Population Distribution Etc. Early Warning Systems Expert Systems
Experience Short Term Measures Long Term Measures Resource Allocation Crop Management, GIS Knowledge International Aid Microeconomic (Farms, Fishers, etc.) Mobilization Macroeconomic (Government)
Figure 4-1 Flow diagram explaining methodology for forecasting and mitigation using Expert Systems and Early Warning Systems.
There are infinite applications for Expert Systems, such as the above mentioned system developed in Egypt for monitoring tomato, cucumber and other crops. Not only are these systems applicable to the agriculture industry, but may also be used for other fields such as fire prevention [www.ruf.uni-freiburg.de/fireglobe/iffn/country/es/es_4.htm ], fog prediction in civil engineering [Takle, 1990], and fisheries [www.ucv.cl/web/carsat ].
EXAMPLES OF EXPERT SYSTEMS
Expert systems were initiated in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Intense research and the development of applications started in the mid-1980s and many specific applications were developed in the early 1990s.
The case of Egypt is illustrative of this development, as described in by the Central Laboratory for Agricultural Expert Systems [www.potato.claes.sci.eg/claes.htm ]. In 1987, officials at the Egyptian Ministry of Agriculture and land reclamation recognized Expert Systems as an appropriate technology for increasing development in the agricultural sector. In 1989, the ministry initiated the Expert Systems for Improved Crop Management Project in conjunction with the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the United Nations Development Program (UNDP). The project began in 1989 and the Central Laboratory for Agricultural Expert Systems (CLAES) joined the Agricultural Research Center in 1991. Through the development, implementation and evaluation of knowledge based decision support systems, CLAES is helping farmers throughout Egypt optimize the use of resources and maximize food production.
Ultimately, CLAES envisions Expert Systems for each food crop, covering every growing region in Egypt. A further goal is to export this technology to other countries in need of such a service. CLAES believes that the widespread use of Expert Systems in agriculture will increase yields, raise farmers’ profits, and help narrow the food gap.
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Chile is starting to use this type of system for their fishing industry. The Servicio de Cartas Satelitales para las Empresas Pesqueras (CARSAT) Expert System works still with a modest number of variables [www.ucv.cl/web/carsat], namely SST, temperature gradients, and chlorophyll content. To acquire this data, many satellite systems are used, as described in later sections in this chapter.
Figure 4-2 Example of a CARSAT produced map for forecasting swordfish locations in the Pacific coast of Chile.
Source: CARSAT, Servicio de Cartas Satelitales para las Empresas Pesqueras (www.ucv.cl/web/carsat)
CARSAT is an excellent example of what could be developed in other countries in South America, such as Ecuador, Peru, or Bolivia. Chapter Five of this report will discuss how systems like this may be integrated into an institutional framework in these countries.
THE ROLE OF EXPERT SYSTEMS IN THE ENSO FRAMEWORK
Expert Systems do not necessarily represent a warning system for short-term measures, but help in long-term decision-making procedures. It is difficult to differentiate between weather forecasts and ENSO forecasts, since both belong to a global system that is complex and often difficult to predict. As Chilean professionals in the sector jokingly admit, “We always live between El Niño and La Niña and we do not know what normal conditions are anymore.”
Expert Systems can take into consideration a long list of variables, most importantly weather and how to live with ENSO. More precisely, the local long-term weather forecast is currently one of the greatest challenges in meteorology. It has been shown how a global climatic forecast model of two or more years is feasible with current technology. However, the translation of the general, imprecise nature of a global forecast into a local, precise and useful long-term weather forecast is still a challenge. In any case, the ability of the Expert Systems to incorporate analytical data and experimental data in the same process could be a key element in weather forecasting. Weather modeling can help mitigate the drastic effects of ENSO on agriculture and the production sector in many
Summer Session Program 2000 ISU • ISU • 85 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution countries; however, weather information is just one of the many required data inputs for an operational Expert System.
IMPLEMENTATION IN SOUTH AMERICA
The implementation of an Expert System requires a cohesive organizational structure that is in full control of the hardware and software required to operate the system. End users, like farmers or fishers, are responsible for providing the necessary input data to this organization. The system, using data layers in a Geographic Information System (GIS), as well as other auxiliary data, produces proposed solutions to a given problem. These solutions may be disseminated to the users in the form of advice, and practical information. Under this work plan, a dedicated organization carries out the technical use of the system, so that training of every end user is not necessary.
The fisheries Expert System in Chile has shown positive results, and many local industries have shown interest in acquiring the software and support. The Universidad Católica de Valparaíso holds a contract with the Chilean government (US$1Million in two years) for the further development of this system and the pre-design of systems for other applications.
These systems can be developed with current technology and know-how available in South American countries. There is no immediate need of additional space resources to implement these systems. However, proper use of existing space assets, proper data integration, software development and validation is deemed essential. This development can either be stimulated in local institutions or acquired from other countries and international organizations such as the United Nations.
THE ROLE OF GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS (GIS)
GIS consist of a layered set of geo-referenced data that can play an important role in Expert Systems and Early Warning Systems. With respect to Expert Systems, GIS can be used to input data concerning soil types, soil moisture, temperatures, population, infrastructure, etc. The combined value of these data layers can be key in the decision- making process for many applications such as crop management, fire prevention, or disease monitoring. Outputs provided by GIS can often be used at a local scale, and play important roles in marketing strategies for agriculture and fisheries.
Epidemiology (disease monitoring) is an excellent application example for the use of remote sensing and GIS data. This concept is based on making a spatial relationship between the presence of a specific habitat conducive to a specific disease, and the proximity to a human population. The spatial element of disease distribution makes GIS a useful tool for monitoring and management efforts. Many infectious vector-borne diseases are clearly correlated to environmental conditions, such as vegetation type, surface water, temperature, and humidity.
The Center for Health Applications of Aerospace Related Technology (CHAART) [www.geo.arc.nasa.gov/sge/health/chaart.html], located at the NASA Ames Research facility, has investigated the use of multi-temporal LANDSAT TM satellite imagery and
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GIS for monitoring and mapping Malaria in Chiapas, Mexico. The results of this study correlated Malaria-carrying mosquito abundance with transitional swamps, and subsequently related these areas to the proximity to populated areas (Beck et al, 1995, 1997). This methodology facilitated the creating of risk maps, an excellent example of a useful output of a GIS that can be used in policy and planning activities. Since many vector-borne diseases such as malaria can be related to ENSO-related climate changes, it is clear that GIS is a useful component of an Expert System.
The use of space technology for the input process of an Expert System is critical to provide the necessary information, especially in remote locations where infrastructure limitations may exist. It is possible that current frequencies and resolutions for data gathering are not enough to provide precise data, but these may be complemented by other means, such as ground networks, and observational aircraft flights. These issues will be addressed later in the section.
POTENTIAL BENEFITS
Expert Systems have many potential benefits with respect to modeling and predicting ENSO events. First, these systems can provide information for improved resource management and thus may effectively increase the profitability, social stability, and preparedness for disasters. The output information from these systems is easily understood by non-specialists, thereby widening the user base to non-technologically advanced communities.
Furthermore, governments may use these systems to coordinate the efforts of different regions to provide resources, information and knowledge to a large population, and to increase the working network of small farming companies and organizations. The microeconomic advantages can turn into macroeconomic benefits when these systems are properly applied and used in a variety of regions covering the whole country.
4.2.2.2 EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS
Early Warning Systems are similar to Expert Systems in that they are intended to provide useful information to a user community, in an effort to manage and mitigate an environmental phenomenon. Early Warning Systems, like Expert Systems, do not only provide information regarding detection and verification of an approaching hazardous event, but also address a means of communicating the information to vulnerable groups in a way that facilitates decision-making and action. The main difference between Expert Systems and Early Warning Systems, however, is the timescale by which the information is provided. Where Expert Systems are designed to provide long-term forecasting databases, Early Warning Systems work on a shorter time scale, providing near real time predictions and information.
The “Report on National and Local Capabilities for Early Warning” by Maskrey [1997], describes the necessity of discussing Early Warning Systems in terms of integrated sub- systems, in order to transform hazard warning information into effective risk management at the national and local levels. The described sub-systems may be summarized as follows:
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A warning subsystem. This system monitors and forecasts hazards at the international and local levels. Scientific information about impending hazards is produced and communicated to national authorities responsible for disaster management.
A risk information subsystem. This system assists disaster management authorities in generating risk scenarios. These scenarios indicate the potential impact of an impending hazard event on specific vulnerable groups and sectors of the society.
A preparedness system. This system develops disaster preparedness strategies that indicate actions required to reduce the loss and damage expected from an impending hazard event.
A communication subsystem. This system facilitates the timely communication of impending hazard events. Potential risk scenarios and preparedness strategies are disseminated to vulnerable groups so that they may take appropriate mitigation measures.
These sub-systems combined make up a powerful management tool called an Early Warning System. Currently many international organizations have developed Early Warning Systems for various hazard applications. For example, the Global Information Early Warning System (GIEWS) is an operational system developed by the FAO and used to monitor food supply and demand in all countries of the world on a continuous basis. This program provides regular bulletins on food crop production and markets at the global level and situation reports on a regional and country-by-country basis [www.fao.org/WAICENT/faoinfo/economic/giews/english/giews.htm].
There are many applications of Early Warning Systems for monitoring environmental disasters. An important application of Early Warning Systems, as related to ENSO, is the observation of equatorial waves. In remainder of this section will focus on describing equatorial waves and the potential for using them as an indicator in an ENSO Early Warning System.
EQUATORIAL WAVES
Equatorial waves often occur as a result of a sudden change in trade winds, as seen in Figure 4-3. This wind shift occurs at the start of an El Niño event over the Pacific Ocean, and the resulting equatorial internal waves are known as Kelvin and Yannai waves. These are fast moving waves with a maximum velocity of 250 km/day (155 miles/day). They transport energy eastwards towards the Pacific coast, with the amount of the transported energy proportional to the square of the wave height. Kelvin and Yannai waves have different wavelengths; Kelvin waves have 1000km (620 miles) wavelength, and Yannai waves have a 100km (62 miles) wavelength. In addition, their location of the greatest energy signal is different. Kelvin waves have the largest amplitude at the equator, and Yannai waves peak in the range of 2-3° off the equator. The Coriolis force traps both the Kelvin and the Yannai waves within a band of 5° North and 5° South. It has been found that these waves can increase the sea height between 10 cm and 40 cm (4 and 18 inches) above normal, according to the amount of the transported energy. In
88 • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution addition, sea surface temperatures increase as a result of Kelvin and Yannai waves [McPhaden, 1998], [Cornejo 2000].
Figure 4-3 Initiation process of Kelvin waves
Source: www.oc.nps.navy.mil/webmodules/ENSO/kelvin.html
If a Kelvin wave hits the Pacific coast, the wave is split into a northern and a southern coastal Kelvin wave. This is shown in Figure 4-4.
Figure 4-4 Equatorial and coastal Kelvin waves
Source: www.oc.nps.navy.mil/webmodules/ENSO/kelvin.html
EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS FOR EQUATORIAL WAVES
ENSO climate forecasting is generally considered to be long-term, with a forecast period from six months to one year. When considering the prediction of Kelvin waves, there are several challenges to be faced. First, even if a coming El Niño event is accurately predicted, the start of Kelvin waves is not easily defined. Second, equatorial waves are present after the ENSO event has begun, and the temporal precision of standard climate models does not facilitate the detection of these occurrences.
Currently, tide gauges at the Galapagos Islands are used to detect equatorial waves, which are only present in this geographical region ranging from 5°South to 5°North of the equator. The distance from the Galapagos to the South American Pacific coast is less than 1000km, leaving a warning time of less than 4 days. There is currently no dedicated
Summer Session Program 2000 ISU • ISU • 89 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution preparedness and communication system in this region for detecting hazard events such as approaching Kelvin waves.
Cornejo [2000] identified two fundamental requirements for the identification of equatorial waves, as follows:
Equatorial waves shall be detected and verified 2 weeks in advance of their arrival at the South Pacific coast. Due to their maximum velocity of 250km/day (155 miles/day), the maximum detection distance from the coast is 3500km (2170 miles).
Equatorial waves change the sea surface height with a maximum amplitude between 10cm and 40cm (4 and 18 inches).
Sea surface height data with a high temporal resolution is required for the detection of Kelvin waves. There are several data acquisition systems designed to collect this information. A good example is the Radar Altimeter of the TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite, which measures changes in sea surface height with an absolute accuracy of 1cm (0.4 inches) and a revisit frequency of 10 days. The spatial and temporal resolution of this sensor makes it a well-suited tool for the detection of Kelvin waves.
The TOGA Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) array of moored buoys along the equator measures the ocean temperature versus depth, the dynamic wave height and the wind strength and direction. They are operated by National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Pacific Marine Environment Laboratory. These buoys measure the ocean thermocline, and can detect a sudden change in time of the temperature/depth distribution, which is characteristic of a Kelvin wave. Temperature changes as a function of depth are measured from one buoy to the next, as the wave travels across the ocean [www.ncsa.uiuc.edu/SDG/IT94/Proceedings/EarSci /soreide/soreide.html].
The sea surface height data of the National Aeronautics and Space Administation/ Centre d’Etudes Spatiales (NASA/CNES) TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite are available on the internet on a near real time basis. About 8 hours after the data is collected, “Quick- Look" images and data listings are available on the internet [www.ncsa.uiuc.edu/SDG/IT94/Proceedings/EarSci /soreide/soreide.html]. Data is presented both as the actual tracks of the last 8 hours (Figure 4-5) and 10 day averages (Figure 4-6).
In terms of data processing, users look for wave patterns indicating sea surface height variations of more than 10 cm (4 inches) in the Pacific Ocean. The global geographic area of study is between 10° South and 10° North, in order to identify the easterly moving equatorial waves, and make a comparison to those areas not affected by the wave patterns. Once a sea surface height variation pattern is identified, a validation process can be performed by comparing with data from the following passes (i.e. tracks) of the satellite.
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Figure 4-5 Significant wave height tracks of the latest 8 hours measured by TOPEX/POSEIDON
Source: JPL TOPEX/POSEIDON, www.podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/topex/www/ql_index.html
Figure 4-6 Significant wave height of the latest 10 days measured by TOPEX/POSEIDON
Source: JPL TOPEX/POSEIDON, www.podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/topex/www/ql_index.html
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TOGA TAO data are available on the NOAA web page with a delay of two days [www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/realtime.html ]. As described earlier, changes in ocean temperature/depth distribution can be taken as a measure for equatorial wave identification. It is recommended to use different principles to identify these equatorial waves, both for independent verification and redundancy.
The monitoring of Kelvin wave dynamics is important to forecast ENSO, its expected strength and severe storms, which are often correlated with the approaching Kelvin wave due to a coupling between oceanographic and atmospheric events [National Research Council 1996], [Philander 1990]. Early Warning Systems can be effective tools in this process, given the appropriate data inputs, processing and validation.
4.2.3 OUTLOOK
Scientific advances in ENSO related disciplines allow researchers to develop systems and techniques to deal with the ENSO phenomenon and its effects. As described earlier, this technology is being developed in the areas of climate forecasting, data gathering, expert systems and early warning systems. Specific issues have been addressed related to observation systems, in order to discuss how to build and maintain a routine and permanent network for these applications.
Focusing on the Pacific coast of South America, it should be noted that no clear evidence exists of extensive use and effective exploitation of the described capabilities. Individual applications have been identified, however the general consensus is that there is no coordinated infrastructure in place or under development. Computational resources and know-how are an important concern for climate forecasting and associated data assimilation processes. Expert and early warning systems are in an early stage of development in South America, and efficient organizational infrastructure is critical for the profitable use of these systems.
In order to consider the implementation of this technology at an institutional level, specific data gathering systems, their characteristics, and availability must first be described. The following section will analyze current data gathering systems (spaceborne, airborne, and oceanographic) that provide the input parameters to the systems described earlier.
4.3 DATA GATHERING
As noted in the previous section, forecasting the strength and duration of El Niño and La Niña requires advance knowledge of oceanic and atmospheric variables, not only in the tropical Pacific, but also worldwide. Parameters of particular interest are sea surface temperatures, surface wind field, sub-surface currents, temperature, and salinity.
ENSO observing systems collect this data and can be summarized in four major categories: spaceborne (remote sensing satellites), airborne (airplanes and balloons), and oceanographic (ships, buoys, island and coastal sea level stations). This section will
92 • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution summarize these observing systems, emphasizing the data each provides and the relationship to the data required by the technological tools discussed earlier in the chapter. Specific attention will be given to how space plays a role in ENSO monitoring, and in the data collection process from earth and ocean-based systems.
4.3.1 SPACEBORNE SYSTEMS
The development of spaceborne systems for remote sensing applications started in 1960 with the US program TIROS. TIROS-1 was the first weather satellite developed for the observation of the Earth’s cloud cover. By 1965, nine more TIROS satellites were launched. They had progressively longer operation times and carried infrared radiometers to study the Earth’s heat distribution. Several were placed in polar orbits to provide global coverage.
Due to the success of the TIROS program, the program NIMBUS was initiated. The primary objective was to test new remote sensing techniques to monitor the Earth’s surface. LANDSAT, a US remote sensing program, began in 1972 and is still fully operational. In addition, France launched its first remote sensing satellite System Pour l´Observation de la Terre (SPOT-1) in 1984.
Due to the growing demand for remote sensing data by organizations worldwide, the remote sensing satellite technology is developing rapidly. Table 4-1 gives a summary of existing systems with orbit parameters, repeat cycle, and lifetime.
Appendices A to F contain tables listing all of the relevant satellites´ sensors, sorted by electromagnetic bands. They also elaborate on some of the technical aspects.
4.3.1.1 IMPORTANT PARAMETERS
Many organizations are studying the global climate system, and the need for useful data to feed ENSO prediction models is increasing. Table 4-2 outlines important parameters needed for global climate models and local expert systems (see Chapter 4.2 for Modeling, Forecasting and Applications information).
In remote sensing, the electromagnetic spectrum is commonly divided into visible, infrared, and microwave bands (Table 4-3). Various terminologies are used for the specification of sub-bands in the infrared portion of the spectrum. Sunlight radiating through the Earth’s atmosphere is absorbed, reflected or scattered by a target on the Earth’s surface. The target surface is characterized by the pattern produced by the reflected energy returned to the satellite sensor.
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Table 4-1 Operational Remote Sensing Satellite Systems Satellite Owner Orbit Repeat Cycle Beginning of (km) (day) Life CBERS 1 China, Brazil 778 26 1999 CBERS 2 China 778 26 2002 CBERS 3 China 778 26 2002 CBERS 4 China 778 26 2000 CONIDASAT Peru NA NA NA ENVISAT ESA 780-820 35 2001 EOS-AM1 NASA 654/685 1999 EOS-PM1 NASA 654/685 2001 ERS-2 ESA 785 3, 35, 176 1995 FASAT-B Chile (FACH) & 816 21 1998 SSTL GMS-5 NASDA GEO 140E --- 1995 inclined IKONOS-2 Space Imaging 680 NA 1999 IRS 1C ISRO 816/818 26 1995 IRS 1D ISRO 736/825 26 1997 IRS P2 ISRO 818/820 5 1994 IRS P3 ISRO 802/848 5 1996 IRS P4 ISRO 720 5 1999 IRS P5 ISRO NA NA 2001/2002 JASON-1 NASA/CNES 1336 NA 2000 LANDSAT-7 NASA 705 16 1999 Meteor 3 RUSSIA 1184/1209 NA NA METEOSAT-7 ESA GEO --- 1997 METOP NASA/ESA 835 5 2003 NOAA-GOES-11 NASA/NOAA GEO --- 2000 NOAA-POES 9-14 NASA/NOAA 847/861 1994 Okean O1 RUSSIA 600/650 NA NA Orbview-2 OSC (USA) 705 16 1997 (SeaStar) Orbview-3 OSC (USA) 470 < 3 2000 QuickBird Earthwatch Inc./ 600 1-5 2000 NASA QuickSat NASA 803 NA 1999 RADARSAT-1 Canada 783/787 24 1995 RADARSAT-2 Canada 798 24 2001 Resurs O1 Russia 678 21 NA SAC-C Argentina 702 9 2000 (CONAE), NASA Spot-4 CNES 832 26 1998 TOPEX/Poseidon NASA, CNES 1334 10 1992 TRMM NASA, NASDA 350 NA 1997 TRMM NASA, NASDA 350 NA 1997 NA Data not available
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Table 4-2 Parameters for Global Models and Expert Systems
Global Models Expert Systems
Sea surface temperature Sea surface temperature
Sea surface height Meteorological
Ocean currents Ocean biology
Ocean sub-surface temperature Ocean currents
Ocean salinity Ocean roughness
Wind vector Ocean clarity
Ocean sub-surface temperature
Topography
Moisture, soil
Vegetation
Infrastructure
Table 4-3 Electromagnetic Spectrum Bands for Remote Sensing
Frequency Abbreviation Wavelength Range
Band Sub-band from to
Visible VIS 0.4 m 0.75 m
Infrared Near infrared NIR 0.75 m 1.3 m
Short wave infrared SWIR 1.3 m 3.0 m
Thermal infrared THIR 6.0 m 15.0 m
Microwave MW 0.1 cm 100 cm
Source: Nagler and Rott, 2000
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Each remote sensor contains elements that are sensitive to electromagnetic radiation in a certain wavelength, with system configurations designed based on the planned application of the sensor. Table 4-4 relates target parameters to primary wavelengths of the electromagnetic spectrum. This table will be used later to divide the large number of sensors and satellites into smaller tables.
Table 4-4 Correlation Table: Parameters/ Spectrum
Parameter/ Spectrum VIS NIR SWIR THIR MW ALT timetry Meteorology X X X Sea Surface Temperature X Sea Surface Height X Sea Surface Wind Vector X Ocean Salinity Sea Surface Ocean Currents X X Ocean Biology X X X X Ocean Roughness X X Ocean Clarity X X Ocean Sub-Surface Temperature Costal Bathymetry Moisture/Soil X X X Vegetation Types X X X X Topography X X Infrastructure X X X
Source: www.sirius-ci.cst.cnes.fr:8090/HTML/information/frames/missions/welcome_uk.html
4.3.1.2 DATA PROVIDERS
Space systems usually transmit raw data to the ground, which is subsequently processed and calibrated at ground-based receiving stations, and distributed to the customer. There are many data providers around the world; some offer this service free of charge, some demand only the manufacturing price, and commercial companies may provide this service for profit. The data can be distributed in many ways, including Internet servers, CD-ROM, digital tapes, and data film. Table 4-5 shows several commercial data providers and some of their related satellites.
Table 4-5 Typical Providers of RS Space Images and their Relevant Satellites Provider Satellites Contact
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Provider Satellites Contact EURIMAGE Landsat [email protected] KVR 1000 NOAA RESURS-01 ERS SAR EUROMAP IRS-1C/D [email protected] RBIMAGE OrbView-1/2 = SeaWIFS [email protected] RADARSAT Radarsat-1 [email protected] SOVINFORMSPUTNIK KVR 1000 [email protected] TK 350 SPACE IMAGIMG IKONOS-2 [email protected] IRS-1C/D Landsat SPOTIMAGE SPOT-1/2/4 [email protected] With respect to Chile, most of the scientific institutes mainly use spaceborne data provided free of charge. Commercially sold data is often costly, and purchased by governments or users in well-developed countries. Chile, however, has an operational ground station that provides Telemetry, Tracking, and Command (TT&C) services for organizations all over the world. In Chile, the most widely used satellite data comes from NOAA Polar Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWIFs), with is received at the TT&C station mentioned earlier and distributed for free.
4.3.1.3 SATELLITE DATA COLLECTION SYSTEMS
Besides remote sensing satellite data, other space assets play a key role in ENSO data collection from oceanographic (buoys, ships, probes) and terrestrial systems. Data collecting satellites systems collect data from oceanographic systems distributed throughout the world’s oceans. Low Earth Orbit (LEO) systems allow the use of a small size terminal with low power and a small antenna, since the signal is transmitted to a much lower altitude than a Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) system, and are considered the most useful orbiting systems for communicating with oceanographic systems. Most LEO systems are organized in constellations to achieve global data collection, either in real-time or delayed (store-and-forward mode).
LEO systems are sub-divided into Big LEO and Little LEO categories. Big LEOs offer voice, fax, paging and data capability, whereas Little LEOs offer low bandwidth data capability only, either on a real-time direct readout (“bent pipe”) basis, or as a store-and- forward service. Little LEO systems are low cost microsatellite systems and are especially dedicated to data gathering. Little LEO systems are thus most suitable for data collection from oceanographic systems [Hanlon, (1996)]. For both of these systems, positioning capabilities may use a GPS receiver (e.g. E-SAT, Final Anlaysis Inc. Satellite (FAISAT)) or a Doppler measurement onboard the satellite (e.g. Argos).
Table 4-6 provides an overview of existing and planned mobile satellite systems with data collection and positioning capabilities.
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Table 4-6 Existing and Planned Data Collecting Satellite Systems
System Implementation Orbit Positioning Messag Terminal Power Comments and web site type system type size (w) Argos Operational Little Doppler shift Data: Handheld 1 Various enhancements, incl 2-way LEO 32bytes messaging, are scheduled www.argosinc.com/ E-SAT Planned Little GPS Data: TBD TBD TBD 6 satellites for automated meter 2001+ LEO Required reading www.dbsindustries.com/ FAISAT Planned Little GPS Data: Handheld 10 38 satellites 2000+. Bent-pipe and 2000+ LEO Required 10/128 Store and forward /1kbytes www.finalanalysis.com/ Globalstar Pre-operational Big GPS Voice/data: Handheld 1 40 satellites in orbit. 52 planned. Full LEO required no service by end >2000+. Data / fax maximum >2000+. www.globalstar.com/ GOES, Operational GEO GPS Data: 'Laptop' 10 4 satellites; directional antenna Meteosat, required various desirable GMS options www.kishou.go.jp/english/activities/obs ervation/obs4.html www.noaasis.noaa.gov/DCS/ GONETS-D Planned Little GPS/ Data Handheld TBD 8 satellites in orbit, 36 more planned LEO Glonass www.gonets.ru INMARSAT- Operational GEO GPS Data: no 5.5 kg 15 Steered antenna not required C required maximum www.inmarsat.org INMARSAT- Operational GEO GPS data: up to Handheld 1 Global pager using existing Inmarsat-3 D+ required few kbytes satellites www.inmarsat.org ICO Planned MEO GPS voice/data: Handheld 1 12 satellites: global cell-phone, inter- 2000+ required no operable with terrestrial cellular maximum networks www.ico.com IRIS/LLMS Planned Little Doppler + Data: up to Handheld 1 2 satellites >2000+ LEO ranging few kbytes www.saitrh.com/land/systems/iris.asp LEO One Planned Little GPSrequired TBD Handheld TDB 48 satellite constellation, store and 2002 LEO forward www.leoone.com/overview.html Orbcomm Operational Little Doppler or Data: no Handheld 5 28 satellites in orbit. Further 7 or 8 LEO GPS maximum satellites planned late 99. www.orbcomm.com/ SAFIR Pre-operational Little Doppler or Data: no 'Laptop' 5 2 satellites in orbit. 6 total planned LEO GPS maximum Vitasat Planned Little GPSrequired Data Handheld 1 2 satellites in orbit, 2 more planned (all LEO piggy-back) www.vita.org Among all of these systems, Argos is the most widely used for buoy data gathering, as a result of its low cost, easy utilization, small transmitter size, and easy data assessing process. Data is accessible by public data networks, within 20 minutes of acquisition anywhere in the world. The Argos system consists of two satellites that collect data and provide position information. The satellites are simultaneously in service on polar, sun- synchronous, circular orbits at 850 km (527 miles) altitude, providing full global coverage. The Argos system has been operational since 1978, and was established under an agreement between NOAA, NASA, and CNES.
4.3.1.4 GAPS AND FUTURE PROGRAMS
By correlating the requirements for ENSO-related data to the existing and planned satellites, it can be concluded that most of the data requirements have been met. However, Table 4-4 shows three gaps in today’s spaceborne systems, which must be addressed by other data gathering systems: ocean sub-surface temperature, bathymetry, and ocean salinity.
The first parameter, ocean sub-surface temperature, cannot be measured by remote sensing systems because of the high electromagnetic absorption of the ocean water. Bathymetry is divided into two areas: deep ocean and coastal zones. Bathymetry in the
98 • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution deep ocean cannot be executed for the same reason. However, Synthetic Aperture Radar sensors (SAR) can detect coastal bathymetry.
The European Space Agency (ESA), CNES, and other institutions have carried out preliminary sea surface salinity (SSS) design studies. ESA began a two-year study to approve the existing project Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS). SMOS is a merger of the mission proposal Microwave Imaging Radiometer using Aperture Synthesis (MIRAS) of CNES and the technical development program Radiométrie Appliquée à la Mesure de la Salinité et de l'Eau dans le Sol (RAMSES) of ESA. The SMOS satellite is due to be launched in 2005. The orbit will be sun-synchronous with an altitude of 757 km (470 miles). The sensor is a microwave radiometer with a frequency of 1.4 GHz. The same frequency is used to measure terrestrial soil moisture.
Figure 4-7 Satellite SMOS for sea surface salinity measurements
Source: SMOS- Proposal in answer to the Call for Earth Explorer Opportunity Missions
The Salinity Sea Ice Working Group defined the scientific objectives for SSS remote sensing. One of the primary objectives is to improve the ENSO prediction models. SMOS, a space SSS mission, will contribute to the major international ocean programs, for example, Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS).
Another large step in the remote sensing technology will be achieved with the launch of the satellite Orbview-4. This satellite will acquire panchromatic images with a spatial resolution of 1 m (3 ft) and multi-spectral images of 4 m (13 ft). In addition, Orbview-4 is equipped with a sensor to acquire hyper-spectral images with 200 channels. The high spectral resolution allows a detailed and precise examination of the observed targets (for example, agriculture and vegetation).
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Figure 4-8 Satellite Orbview-4 with hyper spectral instrument
Source: High Resolution Imagery and Hyper spectral Data (Orbimage)
Future NASA observation satellites are listed in Table 4-7.
4.3.2 AIRBORNE SYSTEMS
Airborne systems are one of the oldest methods to collect atmospheric data and are considered to provide the most accurate measurements. To comprehend ENSO, it is necessary to study the close relationship between ocean and atmosphere. For this, airborne systems can play a critical role.
4.3.2.1 DATA COLLECTION TECHNIQUES
BALLOONS
Balloons are widely used to gather meteorological data, particularly vertical profiles of wind speed and direction. Due to the demand for high accuracy measurements, the standard free-rising, smooth-surface weather balloon is not the best choice. The smooth surface makes the balloon subject to zigzagging or spiraling as it ascends, due to large air vortices that shed off the surface at various positions. The resulting sporadic horizontal motions prevent any accurate radar-tracking measurements of wind speed.
One solution is the Jimsphere wind measurement balloon that is made of lightweight radar-reflective materials. Conical cups are attached to its surface to create a rough surface.
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Table 4-7 Future NASA Earth Observation Projects Repeat Orbit Satellite Cycle BoL Instrument Parameter Monitored (km) (day) Cloud properties, precipitation, Aqua land surface wetness, sea 705 16 2000 AMSR/E (EOS-PM) surface, sea temperature, sea surface wind fields Cloud properties, aerosol properties, land cover and land use change; vegetation dynamics, land surface temperature, fire MODIS occurrence, volcanic effects, sea surface temperature, ocean color, atmospheric temperature, humidity Atmospheric temperature, AMSU humidity Atmospheric temperature, AIRS humidity, land and sea surface temperatures; cloud properties Multispectral and panchromatic NMP/EO-1 705 16 2000 ALI images Atmospheric absorption and AC scattering Hyper spectral images (220 HSI bands) Tropospheric cloud & aerosol ICESAT 600 NA 2001 GLAS structures Water vapor content, precipitation, ADEOS II 802.9 4 2001 AMSR sea surface temperature, sea surface wind Chlorophyll, dissolved organic matter, surface temperature, GLI vegetation distribution, vegetation biomass ILAS-II SeaWinds Surface wind velocity 390- VCL NA 2002 MBLA 3D-topographic 410 CloudSat 705 NA 2003 PABSI Clouds, aerosol CPR Clouds, precipitation
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Those cones, or "roughness elements", limit the formation of vortices and increase drag, dampening the sporadic motions. The stabilized balloon, whenever it enters a changing wind field, will quickly assume the speed of the wind without zigzagging.
Jimspheres are used to obtain high resolution data, but only for a small geographic areas. To obtain a global coverage, radiosondes attached to standard free-rising weather balloons perform measurements of pressure, wind velocity, temperature and humidity from ground to altitudes of up to 30 km (19 miles) [www.nctn.hq.nasa.gov/spinoff1996/48.html ].
GLOBAL POSITIONING SYSTEM (GPS) DROPSONDES
GPS dropsondes are instruments deployed from aircraft to measure temperature, humidity, pressure, and especially winds between the flight level and the surface. Before GPS dropsondes, it was quite rare to obtain accurate wind profiles. Therefore, this technique is considered quite revolutionary.
The sonde moves with the horizontal wind as it falls at 10 m/s (2000 ft/min) so that the wind can be determined from the Doppler shifts of the GPS signals. It carries capacitive temperature, moisture, and pressure sensors. Readings are transmitted to the airplane at half-second intervals. A typical vertical resolution for all measurements is 5 m (~16 ft) [www.nc.noaa.gov/aoc.html ].
MULTI-CENTER AIRBORNE COHERENT WIND SENSOR (MACAWS): AN EXAMPLE OF DOPPLER LIDAR
MACAWS is an aircraft instrument that uses laser and light analysis techniques to measure wind velocity and humidity.
Figure 4-9 A portion of eyewall winds mapped by MACAWS in the NW quadrant
Source: www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/macaws/
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During flight, laser pulses are generated and transmitted to the atmosphere through a scanner mounted ahead of the wing of the aircraft. Aerosols, clouds, and the Earth’s surface scatter a small portion of the incident radiation backward along the line-of-sight (LOS) to the receiver. Inertial Navigation System (INS) measurements are continually inputted to the Operations Control System (OCS). The OCS then issues commands to the scanner to compensate for aircraft attitude and speed changes, in order to maintain precise beam pointing, necessary to obtain accurate data. Using the same INS measurements, the OCS calculates and subtracts the frequency contribution to the Doppler-shifted signal due to aircraft motion along the line-of-sight. The resulting LOS velocities are with respect to earth coordinates [www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/macaws/].
NOAA AIRCRAFT
NOAA heavy aircraft collect three primary types of data: flight level (in situ) data, remotely sensed information, and data from expendable probes (such as GPS dropsondes). These data are assimilated and displayed in real time on board the aircraft in various forms (both alphanumeric and graphical), to give crewmembers and research scientists a clear picture of their surrounding environment. While some of this information goes into specific messages compiled by meteorologists aboard the aircraft, other data is automatically formatted and transmitted in coded form [www.nc.noaa.gov/aoc.html ].
The NOAA aircraft are also capable of carrying project-specific instruments supplied by scientific investigators. Appendix G contains a table showing the considerable amount of data that is measured, and the diverse useful data calculated after processing by NOAA or other targeted institutions, such as the US National Hurricane Center or the Centers for Environmental Prediction.
4.3.2.2 THE GLOBAL OBSERVATION SYSTEM (GOS)
GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF UPPER-AIR OBSERVING STATIONS USED FOR THE GOS
From a network of approximately 900 upper-air stations, radiosondes attached to free- rising balloons are deployed to gather measurements of atmosphere pressure, wind velocity, temperature, and humidity from the ground to about 30 km (19 miles). Approximately two thirds of the stations make observations at 00:00 GMT (Greenwich Mean Time) and 12:00 GMT. Between 100 and 200 stations make observations once per day, while about 100 have "temporarily" suspended their operations because of maintenance or financial difficulties.
In ocean areas, radiosonde observations are performed by 15 ships, which mainly sail the North Atlantic Region, fitted with automated shipboard upper-air sounding facilities (ASAP). For more details, see the table of upper-air stations in Appendix H [www.wmo.ch ]
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OBSERVATIONS FROM AIRCRAFT
Over 3000 aircraft provide reports of pressure, winds, and temperature during flight that are gathered at the WMO. The Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay (AMDAR) system makes high quality observations of winds and temperatures at all levels of flight: ascent, cruising, and descent. The amount of data from aircraft has increased ten-fold in recent years to an estimated 50,000 reports per day. Providing great potential for measurements in places where there is little or no radiosonde data, these systems largely contribute to the upper-air component of the GOS [www.wmo.ch ].
Figure 4-10 GCOS Upper-air Observing Network Stations
Source: www.wmo.ch
OTHER PLATFORMS
GOS also includes solar radiation observations, lightning detection, and tide-gauge measurements. In addition, wind-profiling and Doppler radars are proving to be extremely valuable in providing high temporal and spatial resolutions data, especially in the lower layers of the atmosphere (the troposphere). Wind profiling devices are especially useful in making observations at times between balloon-borne soundings, and have great potential as a part of integrated networks. Doppler radars are used extensively as part of national, and increasingly of regional networks, mainly for short range forecasting of severe weather phenomena. The Doppler radar capability of taking wind measurements and estimates of rainfall amounts is particularly useful [www.wmo.ch ].
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4.3.3 OCEANOGRAPHIC SYSTEMS
4.3.3.1 INTRODUCTION
Oceanographic systems consist of an international network of voluntary and research observing ship lines, buoys, and island and coastal sea level stations. The data collected is complemented by remote sensing satellite data and is essential to understand, monitor, and predict ENSO variations.
The parameters measured by oceanographic networks include: sea surface temperature, winds, waves, salinity, sea level, and surface fluxes; upper ocean temperature and salinity; surface and subsurface currents; sea ice extent and thickness; whole-depth profiles of physical and chemical properties; and bottom pressure. In many cases, a redundancy exists with space-based data.
4.3.3.2 DATA COLLECTORS
Drifting and moored data buoys, ice floats, sub surface floats, probes dropped from ships, and ship observations are now generally accepted as very cost-effective means for obtaining meteorological and oceanographic data from remote ocean areas. As such, they form an essential component of oceanographic observing systems.
DRIFTING BUOYS
Drifting buoys have a long history of use in oceanography, primarily for the measurement of currents by following the motions of floats attached to a sea anchor or drogue. Since 1988, over 2500 drifters have been deployed in the world’s oceans as part of international surface velocity programs. These buoys are small and relatively cheap. A Lagrangian Drifter is a traditional drifting buoy with a small spherical hull, floats, and a large Holey-Sock drogue centered at 15 m (49 ft) below the surface. The Holey-Sock drogue acts as a weight, ensuring that the buoy moves with the current and not with the surface wind. These systems are very reliable, with a lifetime around 450 days (with the drogue still attached). Typical parameters monitored by these buoys are: sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, short wave radiation and surface velocity.
Most data is collected by satellite communication systems (e.g. Argos) and is distributed in real time by the Global Telecommunication System (GTS). The data is then inserted into numerical weather prediction models at meteorological centers around the world. These buoys are used extensively for ENSO monitoring in the Pacific Ocean. An example of a drifting buoy system is the Global Drifter Program (GDP), which will be discussed further.
ICE BUOYS
Ice buoys have been used extensively in the Arctic and Antarctic regions to track ice movement and are available commercially for deployment by ships or aircraft. These
Summer Session Program 2000 ISU • ISU • 105 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution buoys are equipped with low temperature electronics and lithium batteries that can operate at temperatures as low as -50°C (~58°F).
MOORED BUOYS
Moored buoys are, on average, relatively large and expensive platforms. Data is usually collected by geostationary meteorological satellites such as the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) or METEOSAT, but also by LEO satellites such as Argos.
A large number of moored buoys systems are spread all over the world. The TAO array of Autonomous Temperature Line Acquisition System (ATLAS) moorings in the Pacific Ocean is one good example.
Since moored buoys are larger than drifting buoys, they can carry more monitoring sensors. Typical parameters monitored by moored buoys include: surface wind speed and direction; current speed and direction; barometric pressure (air and water), air temperature, humidity, precipitation, short wave radiation, sea surface temperature, salinity, and deep water temperature to a depth of 750 m (2450 ft).
SUB-SURFACE FLOATS
Sub-surface floats are autonomous free-drifting platforms, gathering data at various depths and surfacing from time to time to transmit data via a satellite system, mainly Argos. Argos both locates the float at the surface and collects the data stored in its memory.
In general, these systems make water temperature and/or water conductivity measurements while popping up or down. While they are at the surface their drift gives a measurement of the surface current. The cycling time is often adjustable. Some of them can dive as deep as 1500 meters (4900 ft). A main application is the measurement of the global distribution of current velocity below the high eddy noise region near the surface.
A large number of sub-surface floats are planned for deployment in the next few years through the Argo program and will be discussed later. Argo is a buoy program, not to be confused with the satellite Argos that is used for buoy data collection.
PROBES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS
Ships, volunteer and especially research dedicated, can also provide accurate meteorological and oceanographic data in real time with appropriate sensors on board or with dropped probes. The measurable variables are: wind speed and direction; air temperature, sea-level pressure, sea-surface temperature and sub-surface profile. The data is typically transmitted through either the GOES or the International Maritime Satellite C (INMARSAT) satellite systems.
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Probes can be dropped from a ship. They measure the temperature as they fall through the water and can obtain information on the temperature structure of the ocean to depths of up to 2000 m (1.25 miles).
SUMMARY OF DATA COLLECTORS
Each buoy type has its own benefits and limitations; the choice between one type and another is application and system dependent. Utilizing a combination of different types and systems is often the most beneficial. Table 4-8 summarizes their properties.
Table 4-8 Data Collectors Summary Buoy type Benefits Limitations Drifting Inexpensive Short lifetime Buoys Current measurements available Large amount of buoys required Flexible Network management Wide coverage Moored Network management Expensive Buoys Long lifetime Possible hazard to navigation More sensors High maintenance Depth measurements at various Wide coverage difficult depths Reliable Sub-surface Inexpensive Short lifetime Floats Current measurements available Large amount of buoys required Mid-depth measurements Network management available Reliable Flexible Wide coverage Probes and Flexible Local and punctual Ship Very inexpensive measurements Observations Depth measurements at various Wide coverage impossible depths Network management
4.3.3.3 BUOY SYSTEMS
Currently, different buoy systems are distributed all over the world for different purposes such as weather forecasting, marine forecasting, tsunami warnings, safety at sea, prediction of seasonal-to-interannual climate variations (e.g. ENSO), improvement of climate prediction models, assistance to the fishery industry, and satellite remote sensing data validation.
Most of these buoy systems are developed through international programs and are coordinated by the Data Buoy Cooperation Panel (DBCP). Some buoy systems, however, are also developed for national purposes (e.g. fishery industry support) and are coordinated by national maritime institutions.
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INTERNATIONAL BUOY PROGRAMS
The DBCP is an official joint body of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC). The most important tasks of the DBCP are to review and analyze requirements for buoy data, to coordinate deployment programs, and to improve quantity and quality of buoy data distributed to the GTS.
The panel members are representatives of all members of WMO or member states of IOC which are interested in participating in its activities (presently Australia, Canada, France, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, South Africa, United Kingdom, and the US).
The DBCP operates through action groups, which are independent self-funded bodies that maintain observational buoy programs. These action groups are regional or national in nature and provide buoy data for more general meteorological and oceanographic WMO and IOC programs, like the World Climate Research Program (WCRP), the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), and the GOOS [www.dbcp.nos.noaa.gov/dbcp ].
The DBCP currently has seven action groups, each of them providing a buoy program corresponding to a specific geographic area. The current action groups are:
The European Group on Ocean Station (EGOS)
The International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP)
The International Program for Antarctic Buoys (IPAB)
The International South Atlantic Buoy Program (ISABP)
The International Buoy Program for the Indian Ocean (IBPIO)
The Global Drifter Program (GDP)
The Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Implementation Panel (TIP)
Besides these action groups, the DBCP supervises other buoy programs like Pilot Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA), Triangle Trans-Ocean Buoy Network (TRITON), and the future worldwide Argo systems. The following figure shows a map of the current DBCP buoy programs.
Among all of these programs, TAO/TRITON, GDP, and Argo are the three programs focusing on the South American Pacific Ocean and assessing the ENSO phenomenon. The following sections analyze each of these programs in detail.
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TAO/TRITON PROGRAM
The TAO/TRITON array was developed under the TOGA program by the US, Japan, Taiwan, and France. It was completed in 1994 after 10 years of operations. A major objective of TOGA was to develop an ocean observing system to support studies of large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions on seasonal to interannual time scales. The need for such an observing system was made apparent in the early planning stages for TOGA by the occurrence of the 1982-83 El Niño, the strongest of the century, which was not predicted or detected until late in its development. The TOGA program has been completed, but because of its success, the maintenance of the TAO/TRITON array continues. Several new national and international research programs use the data it provides.
Figure 4-11 Worldwide Map of the DBCP Buoy Systems
Source: The Data Buoy Cooperation Panel web site www.dbcp.nos.noaa.gov/dbcp
The TAO/TRITON Array consists of approximately 70 moored ocean buoys in the tropical Pacific Ocean. TRITON buoys from the Japan Marine Science and Technology Center (JAMSTEC) monitor the equatorial western Pacific and the TAO buoys from an international consortium (NOAA and Meteo France) monitor the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean.
The buoys are ATLAS buoy type, developed by NOAA, and measure air temperature, relative humidity, surface winds, sea surface temperatures, and sub-surface temperatures down to a depth of 500 m (~1630 ft). The next generation of ATLAS buoys, recently developed and expected to be deployed step by step to replace the first generation, measure in addition precipitation, short wave radiation, salinity, deep water temperature to a depth of 750 m (2450 ft) and current (with Acoustic Doppler Current
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Profilers sensor, ADCP). Figure 4-12 depicts the distribution and positions of the ATLAS buoys over the equator.
The data collected by the buoys are transmitted to land via Argos, an LEO satellite data collection system. The real time data is distributed by GTS via French Argos global processing center. The data is then verified and processed in corresponding TRITON and TAO Data Management System at JAMSTEC or NOAA. Then, JAMSTEC and NOAA make the data available to the international community by distributing the data from their web sites. Figure 4-13 depicts the overall data process flow for TRITON buoys [www.jamstec.go.jp/jamstec/TRITON , www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao ].
Figure 4-12 TAO/TRITON Array
Source: The TAO program Web site: www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/implement.html
GLOBAL DRIFTER PROGRAM (GDP)
The program is based on the need for high-quality in situ measurements of SST for initializing short-term climate prediction models as well as for producing global SST maps. The surface velocity data provides a valuable independent constraint of the ocean component of the climate prediction models and is therefore used for the model validation. Drifting buoy deployment is the only way to provide this data at worldwide level. The GDP answers this need and provides uniform quality control of SST and surface velocity measurements through the deployment of standard Global Lagrangian Drifters (GLD).
Using research ships, Volunteer Observation Ships (VOS), and US Navy aircraft, the Global Lagrangian Drifters (GLD) are placed in areas of interest. Four hundred and fifty of these drifters are deployed per year in all of the world's ocean basins. The data available from these sources are: sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, short wave radiation, and surface velocity. Incoming data from the drifter is then placed in the GTS for distribution to meteorological services everywhere.
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Since the beginning of the operation in 1990, data from nearly 2500 buoys has been collected and archived for the public.
Figure 4-13 TRITON System Data Flow Process
Source: TRITON program Web site www.jamstec.go.jp/jamstec/TRITON/fig5.html
ARGO PROGRAM
The Argo program was developed following a jointly convened WMO workshop defining the rationale for new global profiling projects. It is an international program (Australia,
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Canada, the European Union, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, the United Kingdom and the US) for a global array of autonomous profiling floats, using space-based data collection systems, such as Argos or ORBCOMM. As stated in the program design specifications, the primary practical application of Argo is to “provide an enhanced real- time capability for measurement of temperature and salinity through the upper 2000 m (1.25 miles) of the ocean and contribute to a global description of the seasonal cycle and interannual variability of the upper ocean thermohaline circulation” [Roemmich, 1998].
The network will include approximately 3000 fully automated floats with uniform 3° spacing in latitude and longitude and should be fully operational by 2005. Its deployment is scheduled to begin by early 2001, after some low-scale national qualification tests and pilot deployments.
Figure 4-14 Schematic of the Argo float array. Positions of 3000 mid-depth floats shown 3 years after deployment at 3º latitude spacing
Source: The Argo Web site www.argo.ucsd.edu
From the surface, each float is expected to sink to a depth of 2000 m (1.25 miles) using minimum energy. After drifting with the ocean current at that depth for ten days, it will rise to the surface, measuring the temperature and salinity of the layers through which it rises, with an accuracy of 0.1%. Measurements are taken at steps of 5 m between 2000 m and –500 m (1.25 miles and 1630 ft), with steps of 2 m (7 ft). On the surface, the float will radio its data and position to an orbiting satellite before returning to depth and continuing another cycle.
A technique based on differential buoyancy ensures that the floats sink to the required depth and rise to the surface on schedule, and continue to do so throughout their design lifetime of four to five years, which could enable them to make 200 cycles or so.
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Satellites will relay the data they receive from Argo floats to land-based receiving stations. From there, the data will go to a number of scientific teams around the world, who will carry out initial quality control before distributing it.
Figure 4-15 Argo National Commitments for Float Deployments
Source: Created with information from the Argo web site www.argo.ucsd.edu
SOUTH AMERICAN PROGRAMS
The southeast zone of the Pacific Ocean, along the coasts of Chile, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia is lacking useful sea-based meteorological and oceanographic information. There are, however, several coastal stations that provide information on the sea surface temperature and sea surface height.
More recently, however, some local initiatives are taking place. Once a year, the Permanent Commission for the South Pacific (CPPS) coordinates the regional oceanographic research cruise, that provides an environmental picture of the ocean.
SECOND REGIONAL SOUTHEAST PACIFIC JOINT OCEANOGRAPHIC RESEARCH
The data collected on this cruise are: SST and salinity; vertical distribution of temperature and salinity located between depth of 0-500 m (1630 ft), and chlorophyll measurements.
These cruises are very useful because they provide local data for comparison with satellite data. Nevertheless, these measurements are too marginal to really help in understanding the oceanic phenomenon occurring in the coastal zone, such as upwelling patterns or Kelvin Waves, which impact local fishing resources and the coastal climates.
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The information gathered by the TAO array has proven to be of great value for evaluating the effects of the El Niño phenomenon, and as an input to prediction models. However, the system extends only to 95º West, leaving the coastal zone near South America without the data needed to monitor local subsurface anomalies propagating along the coast from Colombia to Chile.
In 1998, the working group within the South-East Pacific Monitoring and Warning System, including Germany, Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, Peru, proposed to constitute an extension of the present TAO buoys system along the coasts of Chile, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia, and in the open sea. The future implementation of this program is depicted in Figure 4-16.
Figure 4-16 Future Implementation of the TAO Array
Source: Chilean National Oceanographic Committee
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SHIPBOARD ENVIRONMENTAL ACQUISITION SYSTEM (SEAS)
In addition to the programs described above, there are several other initiatives assessing oceanographic data that may be useful for ENSO monitoring; Shipboard Environmental Acquisition System (SEAS) is one of them.
SEAS is a program developed by NOAA to provide accurate meteorological and oceanographic data in real time from approximately 250 ships through the use of satellite data transmission techniques. The system transmits data through either the GOES or INMARSAT C satellites to NOAA and is then distributed through the GTS for use in weather, climatological, and ocean models.
The ships involved carry probes (for example, an Expendable Bathythermograph (XBT) sensor for temperature measurements) and drop them at a pre-defined time and place to measure parameters like temperature or salinity as they fall through the water. The probes are designed to fall at a constant rate, so that the depth of the probe can be inferred from the time it was launched. By plotting temperature as a function of depth, the scientists can obtain a picture of the temperature profile of the water [www.dbcp.nos.noaa.gov/seas/seas.html].
4.3.3.4 SUMMARY
This section covered the features of the main oceanographic systems involved in ENSO observation. Specific attention was given to the data provided by each system, demonstrating that a cooperative use of different systems is required for efficient measurements of ENSO related ocean data.
A table summarizing the main features of the current oceanographic systems can be found in Appendix I.
4.4 DATA DISTRIBUTION AND INTEGRATION
In the previous sections, spaceborne, airborne, oceanographic and terrestrial systems have been described as methods of data collection used for modeling ENSO and preparing for the effects of ENSO. Integration and distribution are essential because this data comes from different systems and institutions, all around the world.
The GTS is used to collect the data from space, air and the ocean. The GTS consists of an integrated network of point-to-point circuits, and multi-point circuits that interconnect meteorological telecommunication centers. The circuits of the GTS are composed of a combination of terrestrial and satellite telecommunication links. In addition, all buoys are connected to the GTS. Figure 4-17 shows the structure of the GTS [www.wmo.ch/web/www/TEM/gts.html].
Summer Session Program 2000 ISU • ISU • 115 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution
Figure 4-17 Global Telecommunication System Structure
Source: World Meteorology Organization (www.wmo.ch/web/www/TEM/gts.html )
The TAO array was developed under the International TOGA program (1985-1994). The major objective of TOGA was to develop an ocean observing system to support large- scale studies of ocean-atmosphere interactions. The United States (NOAA) and Japan (JAMSTEC) support the array with contributions from France (IRD) and Taiwan (NTU). The data is easily distributed via the Internet [www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/home.html].
The World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE), following an approach similar to the TOGA program, strives to improve the understanding of the Earth’s climate, particularly the role of the ocean climate dynamics. The objectives of the WOCE program are summarized below [www.soc.soton.ac.uk/OTHERS/woceipo/IOC_99/index.htm]:
To develop models useful for predicting climate. To collect the data necessary to test the model. To determine the applicability of the data sets. To find methods for determining long-term changes in the ocean.
The main achievement of the WOCE is the implementation of the ARGO global array. European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS) and TOPEX-POSEIDON have also been chosen by the integrated observing strategy of the WOCE. These data series complement the sea surface temperature maps already available from operational meteorological satellites. All the data are available on the WOCE website. The Data Information Unit (DIU) is a central source of information on the status of WOCE; tracking all data collection, processing and archiving activities, and acting as the primary
116 • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution interface between the WOCE data system and all users. Therefore, the WOCE program demonstrates a coherent implementation of the different systems needed to collect data for improving prediction of ENSO.
Figure 4-18 GODAE Data Flow
Source: Le Taon et al, 2000
There is room for improvement in climate forecasting models, as described in section 4.2. Nevertheless, the international scientific community proposes to focus their effort on making an operational system of data distribution that can reach the main user community [Le Taon et al, 2000]. This is being implemented within the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) program, which is composed of scientists from Australia, France, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America [www.BoM.GOV.AU/bmrc/mrlr/nrs/oopc/godae/homepage.html]. The objective of this program (1997-2005) is to demonstrate the practicality and feasibility of routine, real- time global ocean data assimilation and prediction, integrating all the data needed from remote sensing (sea surface topography, wind vectors, sea surface salinity, sea surface temperature, surface radiation, sea ice product) and in situ (TAO, TRITON, PIRATA, ARGO, XBT programs). This program proposes solutions to fill the gap between the data available and the requirements needed to improve the ENSO prediction. The ARGO proposal is a GODAE initiative. GODAE also requires a global ocean salinity observation. An integrated approach for ocean salinity, based on the combination of in-
Summer Session Program 2000 ISU • ISU • 117 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution situ and satellite observations (e.g. SMOS) will fill this gap [Le Taon et al, 2000]. Figure 4-18 shows the data flow distribution as it is envisioned.
The program that deals with ENSO in Chile, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia is called the Estudios Regional del Fenomeno El Niño (ERFEN), coordinated by the Permanent Commission of the South Pacific. These countries have no space capability to deal with global climate forecasting. The contribution to data collection consists of performing in situ measurements via research oceanographic cruises [CPPS cruise, 1999], as described in section 4.3. This data is distributed via GTS and is available free of charge through the Centro Nacional de Datos Oceanograficos (CENDOC) [www.clivar.org /national_reports/clivar_chile.html].
4.5 FINDINGS AND GAPS
An extensive analysis of the technological capabilities related to the ENSO phenomenon and its effects has been performed, with particular emphasis on the identification of gaps to be considered. We have seen how technological applications can effectively be used to prevent and monitor the phenomenon itself and its effects.
There is a clear role played by space-based applications in monitoring ENSO, and space technology is being investigated by several organizations around the world. Although space systems can provide useful information for monitoring Earth processes, effective integration with in situ measurements is essential. According to current and foreseeable user needs and missions, space-based data acquisition systems provide comprehensive data sets. Significant cooperative efforts are in place at inter-agency levels to make effective use of available data. There is a current trend to provide coherent sets of user requirements and planned, coordinated response programs.
Climate prediction is continually evolving, and precise climate forecasting services will likely be operational in the near future. The global dimension of climate forecasting requires an active downscaling to regional and local scales to be useful. There is no clear evidence that this is effectively and consistently done by an operational climate information system in the considered countries.
Spaceborne, airborne, and oceanographic systems can also provide a wide range of information that can be used as input to Expert and/or Early Warning Systems. These are proven useful tools in terms of facilitating appropriate use of technology, as demonstrated by the fishing industry, agriculture management sector, and disease prevention systems. From a regional perspective, there are a growing number of applications investigating the technology described in this chapter. Chile, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia could all benefit from the information provided by Expert Systems.
A significant gap in detection of Kelvin waves has been identified. These equatorial waves occur at the beginning of El Niño, and can cause severe damage as a result of associated storms and coastal erosion. The capability to develop an Early Warning System for identifying Kelvin waves has been described in that the waves can be identified with the existing satellite and buoy assets. With the information provided, an
118 • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution operational program may be developed, and a preparedness and communication process implemented.
In general, the number of operational systems actually used to prevent or mitigate local ENSO effects is still limited and improved coordination efforts are required to promote these kinds of applications.
In addition, there is no data distribution system developed locally for implementing Expert Systems. It appears that, due to lack of institutional cooperation, institutes are working independently, collecting the data (free or for a fee) directly from the provider, rather than developing coordinated activities [Barbieri, 2000]. Data from space and in- situ measurements may be effectively integrated and distributed in order to predict ENSO events. It is clear that both international and regional programs will benefit from cooperative efforts, and thus facilitate efficient dissemination of data and information.
4.6 REFERENCES
BIBLIOGRAPHIC REFERENCES Andreson, D.L.T. Stockdale, T.N. Davey, M.K. Fischer, M. Ji, M. Rosati, A. Smith, N. and Zebiak, S.E. (1999). ENSO and seasonal forecasting systems. In: The Ocean Observing System for Climate, Saint Raphaël, France, October 18-22, 1999 Beck, L.R. et al (1997). Assessment of a remote sensing based model for predicting malaria transmission risk in villages of Chiapas, Mexico. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. Vol. 56, pp. 99-106. Dong, B.-W. et al (2000).Predictable Winter Climate in the North Atlantic Sector During the 1997-1999 ENSO Cycle. Geophysical Research Letters, 27(7), 985-988. Hanlon, J (1996). Emerging LEOs telemetry options for use in scientific data buoys - a marine instrument manufacturer's perspective. In: Proceedings of the DBCP Technical Workshop, Henley on Thames, October 1996. DBCP Technical Document No 10, WMO, Geneva. Hoang, N. Data relay systems for drifting buoys utilizing low-earth orbit satellites. In: Proceedings of the DBCP Technical Workshop, Hawk’s Cay, October 1998. DBCP Technical Document No 14, WMO, Geneva Houston, A. and Rycroft, M (1999). Keys to Space. McGraw-Hill. Kramer, Herbert J. (1996). Observation of the Earth and its Environment. 3th ed. Springer, Germany. Lau, K.-M. et al (1996). Intercomparison of Hydrologic Processes in AMIP GCMs. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 77(10), 2209-2227. Le Taon, P.Y., M. Rienecker, N. Smith, P. Bahurel, M. Bell, H. Hulburt, P.Dandin, M. Clancy and C. Le Provost (1999). Operational Oceanography and Prediction – a GODAE perspective In: The Ocean Observing System for Climate, Saint Raphael, France, October 18-22, 1999 Maskrey (1997). “Report on National and Local Capabilities for Early Warning”, IDNDR Secretariat, Geneva October 1997, Convener of International Working Group. McPhaden, m. Delcroix, T. Hanawa, K. Kuroda, Y. Meyers, G. Picaut, J. and Swenson, M. (1999). The ENSO Observing System. In: The Ocean Observing System for Climate, Saint Raphaël, France, October 18-22, 1999 Moura, A. D. (1998). El Niño and climate Prediction Applications in South America. Rivista Geofisica, Instituto Panamericano de Geografia e Historia, No. 49, 124-141 Nagler, T. and Rott (2000), H. Overview of Current and Planned Spaceborne Earth Observation Systems. European Communties, Italy. National Research Council. (1996). Learning to Predict Climate Variations Associated with El Niño and the Southern Oscillation. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. Philander, S. George. (1990). Models of the Tropical Atmosphere. In: El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation, edited by R. Dmowska and J. R. Holton. International Geophysics Series, Volume 46, Academic Press, San Diego, USA. Smith, N., Koblinsky, C. et al. (1999). The Ocean Observing System for Climate: Conference Conclusions. In: OceanObs 99, The Ocean Observing System for Climate, Saint Raphaël, France - 18-22 Oct. 1999.
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Takle, E.S. (1990). Bridge and Roadway Frost: Occurrence and Prediction by Use of an Expert System. Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 29, pp. 727-734.
INTERNET REFERENCES Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction (CDEP). (WWW document) www.ogp.noaa.gov/mpe/cdep (Accessed 14/08/00). CLAES, Central Laboratory for Agricultural Expert Systems (WWW document). www.potato.claes.sci.eg/claes.htm (Accessed 16/08/00) The Center for Health Applications of Aerospace Related Technology (CHAART), NASA Ames Research Centre. www.geo.arc.nasa.gov/sge/health/chaart.html . (Accessed 16/08/00) Velez, Ricardo (1990). (WWW document) www.ruf.uni-freiburg.de/fireglobe/iffn/country/es/es_4.htm .(Accessed 16/08/00) CARSAT, Servicio de Cartas Satelitales para las Empresas Pesqueras , (WWW document) www.ucv.cl/web/carsat (Accessed 16/08/00) The Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere observing system: A decade of progress Michael J. McPhaden et al, U.S. Dept. of Commerce / NOAA / OAR / PMEL / Publications, (downloaded WWW Document) www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/outstand/mcph1720/mcph1720.shtml (Accessed 21/08/00) Mosaic access to real-time data from the TOGA-TAO array of moored buoys (WWW document) www.ncsa.uiuc.edu/SDG/IT94/Proceedings/EarSci/soreide/soreide.html (Accessed 21/08/00). TOPEX/POSEIDON "Quick-Look" Images & Data page (WWW document) www.podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/topex/www/ql_index.html (Accessed 21/08/00) TAO/TRITON real time data display (WWW document) www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/realtime.html (Accessed 21/08/00) United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Global Information and Early Warning System, (WWW document) www.fao.org/WAICENT/faoinfo/economic/giews/english/giews.htm (Accessed 22/08/00) Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (WWW document) www.cptec.inpe.br (Accessed 22/08/00) NASA Spin-off 1996 (WWW document) www.nctn.hq.nasa.gov/spinoff1996/48.html (Accessed 16/8/00) NOAA, Aircraft Operations Center (WWW document) www.nc.noaa.gov/aoc.html (Accessed 16/8/00) The Multi-Center Airborne Coherent Atmospheric Wind Sensor (WWW document) www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/macaws (Accessed 16/8/00) World Metrological Organization, World Climate Data and Monitoring Program (WWW document) www.wmo.ch (Accessed 16/8/00) Global Drifting Program (WWW document) www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/graphics/drifterfig.gif (Accessed 18/8/00) PIRATA Program (WWW document) www.pmel.noaa.gov/pirata/pirata-site.html (Accessed 17/8/00) TAO Program (WWW document) www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/nxatlas.html (Accessed 18/8/00) NOAA Shipboard Environmental Acquisition System (SEAS) (WWW document) www.dbcp.nos.noaa.gov/seas/xbt.html (Accessed 18/8/00) Data Buoy Cooperation Panel (WWW document) www.dbcp.nos.noaa.gov/dbcp (Accessed 2/8/00) The TRITON Program, (WWW document) www.jamstec.go.jp/jamstec/TRITON/fig5.html (Accessed 18/8/00) World Meteorology Organization, (WWW document) www.wmo.ch/web/www/TEM/gts.html (Accessed 22/8/00) National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, (WWW document) www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/home.html (Accessed 22/8/00) Southampton Oceanographic Center, (WWW document) www.soc.soton.ac.uk/OTHERS/woceipo/IOC_99/index.htm (Accessed 22/8/00) Department of Oceanography College of Geosciences Texas A&M University, (WWW document), www- ocean.tamu.edu/WOCE/Progress/data.html (Accessed 22/8/00) Bureau of Meteorology, Australia. (WWW document), www.BoM.GOV.AU/bmrc/mrlr/nrs/oopc/godae/homepage.html (Accessed 22/8/00) Climate Variability and Predictability Global Program. (WWW document) www.clivar.org/national_reports/clivar_chile.html (Accessed 22/08/00) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts – ECMWF. (WWW document). www.ecmwf.int (Accessed 10/08/00) BMRC Web Page. (WWW document). www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/index.htm (Accessed 10/08/00) El Niño and the Current State of the Tropical Pacific. (WWW document). www.nsipp.gsfc.nasa.gov/enso/index.html (Accessed 10/08/00)
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Experimental climate Prediction Center. (WWW document). www.ecpc.ucsd.edu (Accessed 10/08/00) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), National Weather Service (NWS), National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (2000). (WWW document). www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov (Accessed 10/08/00) CPTEC Web Page (WWW document). www.cptec.inpe.br/welcomei.html (Accessed 17/08/00) DIGITALGLOBE.COM, Your Planet Online. (WWW document) www.digitalglobe.com (Accessed 22/8/00). Satellite Encyclopedia (WWW document) www.TBS-satellite.com/cgi-bin/local_search (Accessed 14/8/00) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Office (WWW document) www.trmm- fc.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_gv/information/brochure/brochure.html (Accessed 11/8/00) EUMETSAT (WWW document) www.eumetsat.de (Accessed 16/8/00) ESA Earthnet (WWW document) www.earth.esa.int/#2br (Accessed 13/8/00) Spot Image, (WWW document) www.spotimage.fr/home/system/introsat/welcome.htm (Accessed 11/8/00) Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), (WWW document) www.isro.org (Accessed 11/8/00) NASA Global Hydrology Resource Center, (WWW document) www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov (Accessed 11/8/00) NASDA Meteorological and Earth Observation Satellites, (WWW document) www.nasda.go.jp Home/Earth_Obs/index_e.html. or www.yyy.tksc.nasda.go.jp/Home/Earth_Obs/index_e.html (Accessed 14/8/00) Russian “SPUTNIK” server, (WWW document) www.sputnik.infospace.ru/welcome.html (Accessed 15/8/00) US Global Change Research Program (WWW document) www.globalchange.gov (Accessed 11/8/00) Weather satellites: Nimbus 1 (WWW document) www.met.fsu.edu/explores/Guide/Nimbus_Html/nimbus1.html (Accessed 20/8/00) SMOS- Proposal in answer to the Call for Earth Explorer Opportunity Missions (WWW document) www- sv.cict.fr/cesbio/smos/SMOS_Intro.html (Accessed 20/8/00) Final Report of the First Workshop “Salinity Sea Ice Working Group (SSIWG)” (7-8 February 1998) (WWW document) www.esr.org/lagerloef/ssiwg/ssiwgrep1.v2.html (Accessed 20/8/00). High Resolution Imagery and Hyper spectral Data (Orbimage) (WWW document) www.orbimage.com/satellite/orbview4/orbview4.html (Accessed 20/8/00) Canada Centre for Remote Sensing (CCRS). (WWW document) www.ccrs.nrcan.gc.ca/ccrs (Accessed 22/8/00) Weather Satellite Image Page (WWW document) www.riglib.demon.co.uk/index.htm (Accessed 22/8/00) CBERS (WWW document) www.ipe.nma.embrapa.br/sat_us/cbers.html (Accessed 22/8/00) QuickSat (WWW document) www.winds.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/quikscat/quikindex.html (Accessed 22/8/00) AQUA (WWW document) www.eos-pm.gsfc.nasa.gov (Accessed 22/8/00) Earth Observation-1 (WWW document) www.eo1.gsfc.nasa.gov/miscPages/home.html (Accessed 22/8/00) ICESat (WWW document) www.icesat.gsfc.nasa.gov (Accessed 22/8/00) Missions - Vegetation Canopy Lidar (VCL). www.essp.gsfc.nasa.gov/vcl.html (Accessed 22/8/00) CloudSat (WWW document) www.cloudsat.atmos.colostate.edu (Accessed 22/8/00) ADEOS-II (Advanced Earth Observing Satellite-II). (WWW document) www.eorc.nasda.go.jp/ADEOS-II (Accessed 22/8/00) Report of the Flood Hazard Team, CEOS. (WWW document) www.disaster.ceos.org/progress /reports/flood.html (Accessed 22/8/00)
OTHER REFERENCES Second Southeast Pacific Joint Regional Oceanographic Research, cruise conducted in May 1999, Final Cruise Report, Quito, January 2000. Resources in Earth Observation 1998, Compact Disc, CNES/ CSIRO. Personal communication with Dr. Barbieri, IFOP, August 2000. Cornejo (2000). Personal communication by M. Pilar Cornejo R. de Grunauer /Equador, e-mail 09/08/00. The Design and Implementation of Argo, A Global Array of Profiling Floats" from Dean Roemmich and the Argo science team, 1998. www.argo.ucsd.edu/argo-design.pdf “Observing the Ocean in Real Time” produced by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and written by Peter Gwynne. Editor: Stan Wilson. Download from www.argo.ucsd.edu/designdoc.html
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5 INSTITUTIONS
Our report studied how international, regional, and national institutions approach ENSO in South America. At the national level, the entities working on ENSO are within the government, private, and academic sectors. Overall, we observe a general lack of coordination among the institutions that are studying ENSO and the decision makers who could use long and medium term weather prediction, such as the state ministries and economic sectors of the country.
5.1 INTERNATIONAL COORDINATION
5.1.1 POLICY & LEGAL ASPECTS
In 1997, the United Nations (UN) first recognized the ENSO issue on an international level. In the General Assembly (GA) resolution regarding “International Cooperation to Reduce the Impact of the El Niño Phenomenon”, the organization addressed the acute impact that ENSO events have in several regions of the world, with particular severity and frequency in the coastal countries of the Pacific Ocean. The resolution considered, inter alia, that the national effort of the countries affected were insufficient considering the magnitude of the natural disaster and that international cooperation and solidarity was indispensable [UN Resolution 52/200, 1997].
In 1998, the “First Intergovernmental Meeting of Experts on El Niño” was convened at Guayaquil, Ecuador. Representatives attended the conference from the governments of the nations directly impacted by the ENSO phenomenon and representatives of the Permanent Commission of the South Pacific (CPPS). The end product ensuing from the meeting was the “Declaration of Guayaquil,” which expressed a continued desire to intensify international cooperation, including multilateral projects [UN System Wide Earth Watch, 2000].
In a later resolution dealing with the ENSO phenomenon, the GA first recognized the importance of the La Niña condition. In addition, the resolution also stressed that any credible strategy for the reduction of the negative effects of El Niño occurrences should be based on an effective dialogue and cooperation between the scientific and technological communities within the UN system [UN Resolution 53/185, 1999].
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5.1.1.1 TERRESTRIAL DATA ACQUISITION AND DISTRIBUTION
ENSO-related data is gathered terrestrially primarily by aircraft (including balloons), ships, and buoys — each of those platforms is subject to one of two legal frameworks.
The applicable legal regime for aircraft depends on whether national territory (including territorial waters) or the High Seas are over-flown. Airspace is an extension of a country’s underlying territory and thus subject to national sovereignty [Convention on International Civil Aviation, 1947]. Any foreign activity in national airspace, therefore, requires the consent of the over-flown State. Domestic missions within the territory of a nation must conform to its applicable national regulations.
The applicable legal regime for maritime measurements made by ships (e.g. chlorophyll) or by buoys (e.g. wind speed and ocean temperature) depends on the precise location of those activities — the “Law of the Sea Convention” governs those actions. The sovereignty of a coastal State extends, beyond its land territory and internal waters, to an adjacent belt of the sea that is known as the territorial sea. Activities within that 12- mile zone of the sea are subject to national law. In general, foreign ships have the entitlement of innocent passage in territorial waters. However, a coastal State has the right to adopt laws and regulations relating to that passage. The convention provides that the “[p]assage of a foreign ship shall be considered to be prejudicial to the peace, good order or security of the coastal State if in the territorial sea it engages … in the carrying out of research or survey activities.” Therefore, according to international law, prior permission must be received before conducting ENSO-related research activities in territorial waters. Within a nation’s Exclusive Economic Zone, which extends 200 miles off the coast, scientific research (e.g. the oceanographic research conducted by CPPS countries — see Chapter 4.3.3) is also under the jurisdiction of the coastal State. Beyond that zone, on the High Seas, all States are free to conduct scientific research [Law of the Sea, 1994].
5.1.1.2 SPACE DATA ACQUISITION AND DISTRIBUTION
Working in concert with terrestrial systems, remote-sensing (RS) satellites are an important tool for observing the ENSO phenomenon. When these space assets are employed, however, a number of legal and policy issues arise. Three primary questions need to be answered. What information can be detected? What data can be distributed and to whom? Is there an obligation to make acquired data available to certain States?
By its very nature, remote sensing is regulated by multiple international and national regulatory regimes. In 1986, the GA adopted the “UN Principles on Remote Sensing” to clarify existing (and create new) international law in the field of remote sensing. For the purposes of the principles, "[t]he term 'remote sensing' means the sensing of the Earth's surface from space … for the purpose of improving natural resources management, land use and the protection of the environment” [UN Resolution 41/65, 1986]. Therefore, strictly meteorological data are not covered by the resolution. However, the WMO has created a policy to address the use of that type of data [Twelfth World Meteorological Congress, 1995].
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For non-meteorological ENSO-related data (e.g. Radarsat — see Chapter 4.3.1) the sensed State has a right to that information on reasonable cost terms. The data should be made available to the sensed State as soon as the primary data and the processed data concerning its territory is produced [UN Resolution 41/65, 1986].
The UN principles provide that remote sensing activities should promote the protection of the Earth's natural environment. To that end, States may be required to reveal certain data — in particular, information that is capable of averting any phenomenon potentially harmful to the Earth environment. States are also encouraged to cooperate regionally, which while not a legally binding obligation in a strict sense, nevertheless conveys a political intent [UN Resolution 41/65, 1986].
During the past decade, the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) has become an important institution for international discussions regarding remote sensing policy. The organization’s primary purpose is to optimize the benefits derived from space-based remote sensing through the co-operation of its members to provide services, policies, and products.
At the national level, space agencies and remote sensing satellite operators have developed exclusive data handling policies to make information available. Due to the vague wording of the UN Principles and the horizontal nature of international law, the private sector is often allowed to define guidelines for pricing schemes, data distribution, and intellectual property rights.
With regard to future regional space activities, the UN "Declaration on International Cooperation in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space for the Benefit and in the Interest of All States, Taking into Particular Account the Needs of Developing Countries" could become relevant for regional cooperation. In that document, the GA recognized the necessity of international cooperation to reach a broad and effective collaboration in space for the mutual benefit of all countries. To further that goal, States were encouraged to contribute to the UN Program on Space Applications (SAP) and to other initiatives in the field of international cooperation [UN Resolution 51/122, 1996; SAP Online, 2000].
5.1.2 INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS
Due to ENSO’s worldwide influence, the phenomenon has received extensive international attention in the major organizations. The ENSO phenomenon and its impacts are too complex to be dealt with by a single institution. Rather it must be tackled by both general and specialized international organizations. The most active international institutions that address the ENSO phenomenon are outlined below.
5.1.2.1 UNITED NATIONS
The United Nations addresses ENSO issues as a part of its disaster mitigation efforts. Because it is a global concern, the UN has recognized that those efforts should form part of a sustainable development strategy.
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A number of specialized UN agencies deal with various aspects of ENSO. In 1999, the UN Economic and Social Council established an Inter-Agency Task Force for ENSO as part of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR). The mandate of the task force is the development of preventive strategies, increased preparedness, and mitigation of ENSO’s impact within the Pacific region [Inter Agency Task Force Online, 2000; ISDR Online, 2000].
5.1.2.2 WORLD BANK
As a lending institution, the World Bank has supported a number of countries by granting (emergency) loans after ENSO events. In addition, the institution is collaborating with specialized UN organizations such as the World Meteorological Organization. Its focus, however, has been on post- event support measures rather than preventive actions [World Bank Online, 2000].
5.1.2.3 UN EDUCATIONAL, SCIENTIFIC, AND CULTURAL ORGANIZATION
In 1960, the UN Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) has been primarily involved with ENSO by co-sponsoring the establishment of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission. Both institutions are involved in research and education. Education is a vital component for sustainable development as well as for a long-term ENSO mitigation strategy. Recognizing the importance of information and communication technologies in education, UNESCO promotes their introduction globally. To achieve that end, UNESCO interacts with other UN family members (e.g. World Bank) to provide the concrete financial commitments required for successful implementation [Dakar Framework for Action, 2000].
5.1.2.4 WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION
The World Health Organization (WHO) is a member of the UN Inter-Agency Task Force on ENSO. As demonstrated in Chapter 3, diseases associated with ENSO include Malaria, Dengue, Rift Valley Fever, and Australian Encephalitis (Murray Valley Encephalitis). The WHO has been globally active in addressing the negative effects of Malaria, particularly in the South American Pacific coast, by launching the “Roll Back Malaria” initiative [WMO Online: Fact Sheet 192, 2000].
5.1.2.5 WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
Activities of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reach beyond simply providing meteorological information within its nine major programs. The organization’s mission is broader, aiming at a
126 • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution contribution to the protection of human life and property and the socio-economic growth of developing nations. In 1998, the WMO hosted an intergovernmental meeting of experts entitled an "International Seminar on the 1997/98 El Niño Event: Evaluation and Projections." The conference provided a detailed assessment of that ENSO event and developed strategies to combat the impact of future events [WMO Online, 2000].
5.1.2.6 UNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENT PROGRAM
The mission of the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) is to establish international initiatives aimed at protecting the global environment. The organization cooperates with other UN agencies to achieve that task. UNEP participates in a project designed to improve early warning and preparedness for ENSO events [UNEP Online: UNEP News Release of 21 May 1999, 1999].
5.1.2.7 INTER AMERICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK
The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) collaborates with the WMO in a program to assess the socio-economic impact of the ENSO phenomena in Latin America. The two organizations have had a productive relationship that has included the preparation of studies, capacity building, and organization of joint technical workshops. Finally, approximately US$1 million was recently approved for a program to determine the feasibility of a regional project to facilitate the utilization of ENSO predictions [IDB Online, 2000; WMO Online: WMO News Release of 22 September 1999].
5.1.2.8 THE COMMITTEE ON EARTH OBSERVATION SATELLITES
The Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) acts to optimize the benefits of space systems through the cooperation of its members, to serve as a focal point for international coordination of space-related Earth Observation, and to exchange technical and policy information. The organization has become an important forum for data policy issue debates and has an ad hoc working group on Disaster Management Support. Chile, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia, while not CEOS members, are associated with the organization through their membership in the WMO [CEOS Online, 2000].
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5.2 REGIONAL COORDINATION
The main organization that addresses problems related to the ENSO phenomena on a regional level is the Permanent Commission of the South Pacific (CPPS). Under the auspices of the commission, each member state participates in the Regional Study of El Niño Phenomena (ERFEN) [CPPS Online, 2000].
5.2.1 THE PERMANENT COMMISSION OF THE SOUTH PACIFIC (CPPS)
On 18 August 1952, the CPPS was created in Santiago, Chile by the governments of Chile, Ecuador, and Peru. On 9 August 1979, Colombia became the organization’s fourth member state. The commission is responsible for coordination of the member states’ maritime policy and enforcement of the “200 Miles Maritime Zone’s Declaration (popularly known as the ‘Declaration of Santiago’).” The organization also participates internationally with the WMO, UNESCO, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Division for the Ocean Affairs Law of the Sea (DOALOS), International Oceanographic Commission (IOC), and International Hydrographic Organization (IHO) [CPPS Online, 2000].
5.2.1.1 ACTIVITIES
The main activities that CPPS governs include the following: fishing on the high seas; deep sea mining; ERFEN; study of large marine ecosystems; interaction between CPPS and economic organizations around the Pacific Basin; trade issues related to fishery products and the environment; and protection of the marine environment on the South American Pacific coast [CPPS Online, 2000]. The execution of these activities is divided between different inter-CPPS and national organizations. Ineffective coordination amongst a number of sub-committees appears to be a primary reason that the institution has produced only limited results since its inception. Streamlining tasks and departments of CPPS or a redefinition of duties is needed to increase the effectiveness of the commission.
5.2.1.2 ORGANIZATION
CONFERENCE OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS’ MINISTERS — This entity is the CPPS’s highest decision-making body. Its specific function is to define the organization’s global policy and to promote the principles and objectives of the member States. In 1981, the conferees first met in Cali, Colombia to analyze CPPS’s development, reinforce its actions, and evaluate the activities already accomplished by the General Secretariat (GS). During the past 20 years, the body has held six additional conferences [CPPS Online, 2000].
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CPPS's Organizational Structure
Conference of the Foreign Affairs' Ministers
Ordinary Meetings
National Sections
General Secretary
Legal Deputy Scientific Deputy Economical Affairs South Pacific Legal General Secretariat General Secretariat Secretariat Action Plan Commission
Economical Commission Legal Affairs Scientific Affairs Economical Affairs Action Plan Secretary Secretary Secretary Special Advisor Scientific Research Coordinating Commission
Figure 5-1 CPP’s Organizational Structure
GENERAL SECRETARIAT — The CPPS’s executive body, the GS operates with complete administrative and economic autonomy. The headquarters for the organization rotates every four years among the member states — it is in Ecuador until 2002. The institution is responsible for implementing directives from the Conference of Foreign Affairs Ministers’ and from CPPS’s Ordinary Meetings. In addition, it coordinates the activities of the National Sections. A General Secretary (a citizen of the current headquarters country) and three Deputy General Secretaries (one each for legal affairs, science, and economics) lead the entity. The Deputy General Secretaries are also responsible for executing the “South Pacific Action Plan,” the General Coordination Unit, and the International Cooperation Office. Finally, the GS has three consultative organs: the Legal Commission; the Scientific Research Coordinating Commission; and the Economic Commission [CPPS Online, 2000].
NATIONAL SECTIONS — To facilitate and coordinate the activities carried out by the CPPS and its General Secretariat, each Member State is required to create a National Section. These bodies provide a permanent link between the national governments, the GS, and national institutions participating in CPPS activities. This National Section representation includes organizations that conduct maritime research (e.g. fishing- related governmental and private institutions, national Navy, and marine, meteorological, and oceanic mining entities). The bodies are composed of a President and up to four delegates [CPPS Online, 2000].
ORDINARY AND EXTRAORDINARY MEETINGS — Annual “Ordinary Meetings” are held to ensure that all CPPS aims and principles are embraced in all treaties and agreements related to the South Pacific. The main purpose of the meetings is to conduct and control
Summer Session Program 2000 ISU • ISU • 129 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution the evolution of the Member States and to determine the need for future CPPS programs to implement policies adopted by the Conference of Foreign Affairs’ Ministers. The GS or a National Section, to address unexpected regional developments, convenes “Extraordinary Meetings” [CPPS Online, 2000].
5.2.2 REGIONAL STUDY OF EL NIÑO PHENOMENA (ERFEN)
CPPS aims to study the interaction between the ocean, atmosphere, and its social and economic effects. To accomplish that goal, the commission should take action to improve the prediction and the analysis of the ENSO phenomenon and its impacts and enhance national and international cooperative capabilities [Valdivieso-Suarez, 1999].
In 1974, ERFEN was created within CPPS as a program for the scientific investigation of the ENSO phenomenon. Via ERFEN, the Member States are working internationally to improve the data gathering technologies and prediction models. In 1992, the CPPS approved a protocol to institutionalize and consolidate the ERFEN program. That document provided for the sustained regional cooperation and participation of specialized national agencies and ERFEN [ERFEN Protocol, 1992].
The ERFEN Scientific Committee (part of the Scientific Secretariat) was created to coordinate and foster the technological and scientific activities of the Member States’ national institutions. A special emphasis is placed on the development of ENSO studies and prediction capabilities that contribute to the mitigation of ENSO’s negative effects. National Sections are an essential tool for that cooperative effort and form a vital link between regional and the national agencies. The Scientific Committee is composed of experts in oceanic, atmospheric, and agricultural sciences [CPPS Online, 2000].
There are more than twenty entities working within the framework of the CPPS-ERFEN program [ERFEN 13th Reunion, 1998]. Each Member State is required to select a permanent national Source: www.cpp5.org.ec secretariat agency — those current agencies are: the Contamination Control Center of the Pacific (CCCP) for Colombia; the Navy Oceanographic Institute (INOCAR) for Ecuador; the Institute of the Sea (IMARPE) for Peru; and the Hydrographic and Oceanographic Service of the Chilean Navy (SHOA) for Chile [ERFEN Climate Alert Bulletin, 2000].
The ERFEN infrastructure provides a coordinative framework and an executive body to promote the organization of conferences at the regional and international levels. It also provides a structure for gathering ENSO-related information in a single organization that is able to effectively survey and predict the phenomenon and its effects. In addition, under the auspices of the ERFEN program, CPPS publishes the Climate Alert Bulletin
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(BAC), which provides three-month predictions on marine climatic conditions using both regional and international (e.g. NOAA) data [INOCAR Online, 2000].
Another objective of the ERFEN program is to foster international cooperation. In that vein, there is a long-standing collaboration between ERFEN and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC). In addition, there is a link between the program and the World Trade Organization [Flores, 1999]. Finally, as discussed above, there are agreements between the CPPS and international bodies such as the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and UNESCO, in order to facilitate the exchange of information.
In 1999, the IOC offered a few criticisms regarding the effectiveness of the ERFEN organization structure. The concern is that the program’s recommendations do not reach high-level decision makers. Therefore, the proposals are often not transformed into concrete action. As a result, ERFEN should strive to follow ENSO predictions with meaningful government initiatives, including: redirection of economic activities; allocation of the resources necessary to effectively mitigate impacts; and creation of long-term plans to prevent negative effects (e.g. loss of life and property damage). Technical assistance and financing from the international community is essential to the successful development of the necessary infrastructure. Another organizational concern relates to the policy of changing the headquarters of CPPS every four years. That guiding principle has proven to make organization of the commission’s offices extremely difficult. Finally, because meetings are only held once every two years, the Member States have a difficult time maintaining good communications to exchange information [Robles, 1999]. Despite these concerns, the ERFEN program provides a solid foundation for regional cooperation, coalescing of resources, and implementation of larger international initiatives.
5.3 CHILE: CURRENT ENSO-RELATED INSTITUTIONS
5.3.1 GOVERNMENT
In Chile, there are a number of governmental entities that deal with ENSO. In general, however, it appears that these organizations do not coordinate their activities. On the other hand, the scientific community assertively harmonizes its ENSO-related research, making it an important resource for the nation’s decision makers. During the powerful 1997-1998 El Niño event, the most important initiative toward creation of an integrated approach occurred. On that occasion, a so-called inter-sector committee for the ENSO phenomenon was created (a description of which will be provided in section 5.3.4), but was disbanded once the phenomenon decreased in intensity.
Natural disasters can have long lasting consequences on human lives and infrastructure, particularly given the rugged nature of Chile’s geography. “[T]he process leading to mitigation of effects associated to natural phenomena,” Arturo Hauser suggests,” is aggravated by the fact that its management is conducted independently of the planning of integral (national) development.” In addition, there is a lack of reliable statistical data
Summer Session Program 2000 ISU • ISU • 131 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution with valuable correlation to climatic data. That is compounded by the fact that “the longitudinal character of Chile make ground transportation a decisive participant in the economic development of the country.” Therefore, long-term national development planning should include the effects of global climatic and atmospheric phenomena, particularly ENSO. This subsection will describe the activities of permanent governmental agencies that currently address issues relating to ENSO [Hauser, 1997].
5.3.1.1 THE HYDROGRAPHIC AND OCEANOGRAPHIC SERVICE OF THE CHILEAN NAVY (SHOA)
SHOA is the primary Chilean government entity responsible for providing technical information related to oceanography, hydrography, nautical cartography, and navigation. The agency also actively conducts significant scientific research aimed at fostering the development of ENSO-related programs. Finally, as indicated above, SHOA is the permanent national secretariat agency for the CPPS-ERFEN program [SHOA Online, 2000].
In 1971, the National Oceanographic Committee (CONA) was created as the entity responsible for advising and also coordinating the efforts of organizations dealing with marine scientific research. SHOA’s Executive Director is also CONA’s president. CONA has established an ad-hoc subcommittee (called “El Nino and Climatic Variability”) that carries out ENSO-related research. To coordinate its internal research, CONA convenes quarterly plenary sessions that bring together representatives from the agencies´ nine subcommittees. In addition, there are monthly Technical Planning and Programming Board meetings attended by the chairmen of each subcommittee. Finally, there are special working groups that are created to undertake specific types of research [SHOA Online, 2000].
CONA’s most relevant ENSO-related activity is the Regional Oceanographic Cruises that it conducts simultaneously with Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia. These cruises provide for accurate assessment of the oceanographic and meteorological conditions in the Pacific Basin. The first cruise took place in May 1998, amidst the particularly strong event that ended that year. During the past three years, two more cruises have been successfully performed [SHOA Online, 2000].
5.3.1.2 NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL DIRECTORATE (DMC)
DMC is the state organization in charge of the national meteorological service, which provides weather forecasts on a national level. It also coordinates weather prediction activities with other appropriate national and international entities. DMC operates under the umbrella of the General Civil Aviation Directorate [DMC Online, 2000; DGAC Online, 2000].
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5.3.1.3 OFFICE FOR NATIONAL EMERGENCIES (ONEMI)
ONEMI is the state organization in charge of dealing with the management of national disasters and catastrophes. It is part of the Ministry of Interior and coordinates all activities related to preparation and mitigation of natural disasters such as earthquakes and flooding. ONEMI has established a National Planning System, in coordination with every municipality in the country, to cope with the impacts of the ENSO phenomenon. From an operational viewpoint, the agency maintains a national disaster contingency plan that focuses on the concept of early warning to protect civil populations [Ministry of the Interior Online, 2000].
5.3.1.4 MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is Chile’s point of contact within the CPPS. The ministry’s Environmental Directorate (which is part of the General Directorate for Foreign Politics) carries out all activities related to environmental issues - including CPPS participation. There is, however, a need for increased involvement by the government in CPPS actions to ensure an adequate scientific framework capable of improving the level of ENSO-related information [Cabezas, 2000]. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs also represents Chile in all international negotiations related to climatic variability - including the meetings of the Conference of the Parties of the Convention on Climate Variability [Ministry of Foreign Affairs Online, 2000].
5.3.2 PRIVATE SECTOR
5.3.2.1 ELECTRICITY COMPANIES
Figure 5-2 COLBUN Machicura power plant (Chile)
Source: Belgian Foreign Trade Board
In Chile, the generation and distribution of electricity is carried out by the private sector. Electric companies have wide freedom to choose service and maintenance plans, but are responsible of the quality of that service. The government acts primarily in a regulatory capacity through the National Commission of Energy (CNE), the Ministry of Economy, the Supervision of Electricity and Fuels (SEC), the National Commission of
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Environment (CONAMA), and the Department of Values and Insurances (SVS) [CNE Online, 2000; Ministry of Economy Online, 2000; SEC Online, 2000; CONAMA Online, 2000; SVS Online, 2000].
Table 1-1 illustrates that about 60 percent of Chile’s electricity is hydroelectric [DOE Online, 2000]. That makes the country extremely sensitive to variations in precipitation.
Table 5-1 Electric Generation Systems in Chile
Technology Capacity Utility Non-Utility
Hydroelectric 3,862 3,735 127
Steam-Electric 2,161 1,555 606
Gas Turbine 616 489 127
Diesel 150 72 78
Total Capacity, Mwe 6,789 5,851 938
The mission of collecting, managing, and analyzing data used to predict water availability is done by the General Direction of Waters (DGA) - that agency is dependent on the Ministry of Public Works (MOP) for vital information. DGA compiles weekly and monthly reports regarding the evolution of national water resources and makes medium- term water availability predictions. The Center of Information of Water Resources (CIRH) releases that information to the public. The CIRH reports rely heavily on information provided by GIS systems and there are current plans to make the data available interactively via the Internet [MOP Online, 2000].
5.3.2.2 WATER MANAGEMENT COMPANIES
Privates companies carry out water management in Chile. The government through the Supervision of Sanitary Services regulates these companies. The management and analysis of water resource information is conducted by the DGA [MOP Online, 2000].
5.3.2.3 FISHERIES COMPANIES
Fishing is one of Chile’s most important economic sectors and comprises a sizable part of the GDP. Therefore, it is very important to have accurate information regarding the status and location of fish stocks. To accomplish that objective, the private sector must collect data concerning variations in ocean conditions and analyze it to generate a product that can be easily used by Chilean fisheries. Currently, private companies and
134 • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution university research groups are doing that activity. Research institutions working in this area include INPESCA, the Catholic University of Valparaiso, the University of Chile, and the University of Concepcion [INPESCA Online, 2000; Catholic University of Valparaiso Online, 2000; University of Chile Online, 2000; University of Concepcion Online, 2000].
Figure 5-3 Factory Boat working
Source: Northeast Fisheries Science Center
The research groups at these institutions have access to remote sensing assets and have ground stations to download free information from different satellites systems. In addition, they have developed models for short-term and medium-term predictions regarding the position and class of fish at sea. That final processed information is sold to the fisheries. It is generally given at a very low price, however, to small-scale fisheries that require a subsidy to obtain the data [INPESCA Online, 2000; Catholic University of Valparaiso Online, 2000; University of Chile Online, 2000; University of Concepción Online, 2000].
5.3.2.4 AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Agriculture is another one of Chile’s most important economic sectors and one that is particularly affected by weather perturbations. As a result, it is important for the nation to have adequate land management analysis and data distribution. Both government and universities participate in that activity, including the Office of Agricultural Studies and Policy (ODEPA) and the Foundation for Communication, Education, and Culture of Agriculture (FUCOA). ODEPA’s mission is to formulate policies and provide relevant information to support decision makers within the agricultural and logging sectors. The agency has a data bank with important statistics relating to agriculture and provides decision makers with published versions of that information [ODEPA Online, 2000].
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Figure 5-4 Agricultural work in the South of Chile
Source: FIA (Foundation for Agricultural Investigation)
FUCOA is a private organization that works under the auspices of the Ministry of Agriculture. Its mission is to provide technical information, promote the development of modern agricultural techniques, create public spaces for communication within the agricultural sector, and support the tradition and culture of farmers. In that context, it is a good instrument for releasing crop-planning information [FUCOA Online, 2000].
There are three additional institutions — the Institute for Agricultural Development (INDAP), the Institute of Agricultural Investigation (INIA), and the Foundation for Agricultural Innovation (FIA) that were created to promote technical developments within the agriculture sector, including the application of remote sensing [INDAP Online, 2000; INIA Online, 2000; FIA Online, 2000]. Finally, the National Forest Corporation (CONAF) was created to formulate national policy and supervise forestry activities. It is also tasked with the prevention and control of the forest fires [CONAF Online].
5.3.2.5 TELECOMMUNICATIONS
Chile has an advanced telecommunication system, including space components, and it can benefit academic and political coordination of ENSO data exchanges and distribution. Heavy deregulation means Chilean telecommunications is now run by the private sector. The post-deregulation era challenges technical industry to help define a framework that will improve data distribution to users in a free-market environment. The role of the private sector in the communications network is evolving in Chile. However, they do not currently play an active role in ENSO-related information exchanges. Effective communication systems illustrate how space assets can contribute to improving the coordination within and between national and global ENSO institutions. These in turn, can promote improved social and economic conditions. Information exchanges, and hence ENSO mitigation, can be enhanced if countries give priority to communications applications.
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The evolving telecommunications environment is the result of the transition from the previous military government regime. The private sector aim – to install a widespread broadband network may assist local communities in learning about ENSO. Political organizations are also involved with specialized academics, which may be both private sector consultants and scientific/public sector researchers, by exchanging ENSO information on different levels.
Because of increasingly active scientific communities, Chile is more involved in the global economy. Even before considering ENSO-related weather monitoring and prediction, there is a key role for space applications. Telecommunications help institutions coordinate change in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) training, access information obtained from space systems, and train members of different sectors accordingly.
MARKET STATISTICS
The telecommunications industry represented 2.44 percent of the Chilean GDP in 1995 – 0.4 percent of GDP growth. In 1996, the contribution of telecommunications to growth was 0.41 percent, while generating 2.31 percent of the GDP. The Chilean GDP grew to 6.8 percent in 1996. In 1996, there were 4 large telecommunication companies that generated US $2.03 billion. By 2000, Telefonica, had the largest market share [CTC, 1996].
The telephone density in Chile has doubled in the past decade - from 5.4 to 10.8 per 100 households - and is expected to double again by the end of the year 2000 [CTC, 1996].
In the mobile telephony markets, due to spectrum allocation limitations, there are only four national competitors. Two of them, (ENTEL and SMARTCOM) have introduced personal communication systems (PCS). This digital, wireless technology competes not only with analog cellular but also with wireline telephony. One company will also introduce wireless broadband to the end user. This market remains very dynamic and is linked to the Internet. The annual rate of subscriber growth from 1994 to 1997 was 66 percent, a 30 percent annual growth in revenue for the sector. The penetration reached 319,103 subscribers at the end of 1996, representing 2.4 units per 100 inhabitants [CTC, 1996].
CHILE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS DEVELOPMENT FUND
Despite one hundred years of progress in telecommunications, one quarter of the earth's population does not have access to basic telephone service. It is estimated that the developing world will require US$1.2 to $30 billion per year to provide conventional telecommunications access by the year 2000. It is highly unlikely that governments will be able to raise such funds [Aceituno, 2000;International Telecommunications Union (ITU), 2000; United Nations, 2000].
Programs such as the Chilean Telecommunication Development Fund are providing incentives for the exploitation of these yet untapped markets. Chile has established a focused development fund to provide a subsidy to private enterprises that wish to
Summer Session Program 2000 ISU • ISU • 137 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution enhance telephone services in poor or remote areas in the country. To date, the fund has spent US$2 million – only half of its budget – and has drawn in investments of US$40 million, which will pay for 1,285 rural public phones at an average cost of US$1,556 per telephone. In pre-competitive days, the government paid over US$18,000 in subsidies per telephone in adjacent areas. Largely as a result of this fund, Chile has become an experimental ground for new equipment manufacturers that are gaining experience on how to give service to rural areas using innovative technology. Equipment manufacturers, such as Canadian based SR Telecom, have become new operators in rural Chile and are learning how to do it profitably. Local companies are learning from foreign activity in this sector [Rosenblut, 1998; Dymond, 1999].
5.3.3 EDUCATION
Since Chile has returned to democracy, new ideas of deregulation have been introduced. The government has had the freedom and resources to restructure education, including an emphasis on telecommunications. Education can help integrate the new communications technology into society and the new political reality.
In order to complement the telecommunication advances in the private sector, the government of Chile has implemented various education-related programs to accelerate access to information for the poorer segments of the population. Two key initiatives are the Telecommunications Development Fund (see above) and the Enlaces Project.
5.3.3.1 THE ENLACES PROJECT
In 1994, Chile’s Brunner Commission report presented a grim picture of the state of the school system and its implications for the future of the country as a player in the international economy. It recommended both the decentralization and the modernization of the school system. It also recommended the integration of computer technology in the classroom and computer training for teachers. The Enlaces Project was one of the results of this recommendation [ENLACES Online, 2000].
The Enlaces Project is a primary and secondary school program that has integrated 350 public schools and 11 higher-level education institutions and foreign schools throughout Chile. The schools are connected via a wide area network (WAN) that provides a hands- on computer applications lab for students, teachers, and administrators. The network provides students with access to educational software, various databases and the Internet. It enriches the curriculums of remote schools and allows for better integration of the national education system. The Ministry of Education, with the assistance of a World Bank loan, funds the project. Enlaces is part of the overhaul and modernization of the whole education system, a high priority of the current administration [ENLACES Online, 2000].
Enlaces has been running mainly through local metered access to an Internet service provider (ISP), via the schools network. Although the project has been successful in connecting local schools, schools with intensive Internet usage have incurred local phone bills of up to US$2,500 per month. These costs make it difficult for poorer schools
138 • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution to meet the high demand for Internet access. Most of these public schools, although financially unable to maintain a high Internet access, were able to communicate with other schools through an innovative software package called La Plaza, giving a sense of success to the program [ENLACES Online, 2000].
This electronic connection between schools could facilitate the use of initiatives like NASA’s Education Kit, a program where children participate in interactive science-based activities over the Internet. Including a component like Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment’s (GLOBE) ENSO-related unit on earth observation. GLOBE students, in elementary and secondary school, make observations and measurements to study interactions between the atmosphere and hydrosphere. The project shares weather data and provides qualitative data on severe weather and weather extremes. “The purpose of the project is to promote weather awareness and understand weather in the earth system.” [NOAA Online: The GLOBE Project, 2000]
5.3.3.2 UNIVERSITY-LEVEL EDUCATION
While all academics do not have access to state-of-the-art telecommunications technology some national education institutions involved with ENSO projects have specific programs linking scientists via the Internet [University of Chile Online, 2000].
The University of Chile in Santiago (UCH), the Catholic University of the North (UCN), and the University of Concepcion (UDC) have faculty members on scientific research committees addressing ENSO issues at the local level but there are no dedicated ENSO studies. There are only two graduate-level programs that study ENSO in depth, a master’s in atmospheric science at the UCH and a doctorate in oceanographic science at UDC. However, with few individuals specialized in atmospheric sciences, it is difficult to make research progress on a national level so international collaboration is crucial [University of Chile Online, 2000; UDEC Online, 2000].
5.3.4 INTER-SECTOR COMMITTEE FOR ENSO
Established in 1997, the inter-sector committee was created to produce a multi-sector national strategy to assess the extent of the damage caused by the ENSO phenomenon. When active, the committee is headed by the Ministry of Interior and is composed of five subcommittees. First, a scientific subcommittee coordinated by SHOA and including CONAMA, the University of Chile, INFOP, the DMC, and the National Service for Geology and Mining. This has been the most active subcommittee and the only one maintaining permanent activities at both the national and international levels. Second, an operational subcommittee coordinated by ONEMI and including the Armed Forces and the Police (under the umbrella of the Ministry of Defense), the National Association of Municipalities, and the Ministry of Public Health.
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Ministry of Interior
Ministry of Health Scientific Operational Social Ministry of Housing
•SHOA •ONEMI Ministry of Nat´l Planning •UCH •MOD Ministry of Public Work •DMC •Nat´l Infrastructure Undersec. of Transport •IFOP Assoc of Municip. Undersec. Of Telecomm •SNGM Ministry of Economy Ministry of Financing Economics Ministry of Financing Ministry of Agriculture Undersec. of Fishing
Figure 5-5 Intersectorial Committee.
Third, a social subcommittee coordinated by the Ministry of Planning and including the Ministry of Public Housing and the Ministry of Health. Fourth, an infrastructure subcommittee coordinated by the Ministry of Public Work and including the Secretariats of Transport and Telecommunications. Finally, an economics subcommittee coordinated by the Ministry of Financing and including the Ministry of Economy, the Ministry of Agriculture, and Secretariat of Fishing.
There have been no published accounts regarding the successes and/or failures of the inter-sector committee. That demonstrates a general failure by the Chilean government to adopt long-term policies to prevent or mitigate the impacts of the ENSO-phenomenon.
5.4 FINDINGS
In Chile, we have observed a general lack of coordination and integration among existing ENSO-related research institutions. The country would be benefited by an organization capable of coordinating long-term policy planning within the Chilean government, which would be facilitated by the nation’s strong telecommunications sector.
In Chile, we have observed a general lack of awareness within the public regarding the ENSO phenomenon. The country would benefit from expanding academic programs that conduct ENSO-related research. Further, nation would
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be benefited by increased emphasis of ENSO within the elementary and secondary educational curriculum.
Within the Pacific coast of South America, we have observed a general failure to adequately distribute and explain ENSO-related research. The region would be benefited by a public space where these nations could exchange data. The establishment of a permanent CPPS headquarters to foster cooperation among its Member States would also benefit the region.
Within the Pacific coast of South America, governments do not currently play an active role in ENSO-related information exchange. Effective communication systems illustrate how space assets can contribute to improving coordination within and between national and global ENSO institutions. The region would be benefited if priority were given to space-based communications applications and information exchanges.
5.5 REFERENCES
Aceituno, Patricio. (2000). Universidad de Chile. Personal Communication. (August 2000.) Andueza, J. (2000). Personal communication. (interview - Chilean Navy Hydrographic & Oceanographic Institute (SHOA), August 2000) Anonymous. (1997). The Mississippi Fibre King. The Economist. 13 September. p.25. Artigas, C. (2000). Personal communications. (interview-ECLAC, August 2000) Britannica Encylopedia. Chile Profile. (WWW document). www.britanica.com (accessed Aug 9-11) Cabezas, Alejandro (Captain Chilean Navy). (2000). Personal communication. (interview-SHOA/ERFEN/CONA, August 2000) Canadian Space Agency (2000). Homepage & Education Initiatives. (WWW document) www.csa.gc.ca (accessed August 2000) Catholic University of Valparaiso. (2000). UCV Online. (WWW document) www.ucv.cl (accessed 24 August 2000). CEOS Online. (2000). (WWW document). www.ceos.org/ (accessed 23 August 2000). ICAO. (1980). United Nations Convention on International Civil Aviation, Article 1, 1944. INOCAR. (2000). Climate Alert Bulletin. (WWW document) www.inocar.mil.ec/boletin/clima.html (accessed 21 August 2000). CNE Online. (2000). (WWW document) www.cne.cl (accessed 24 August 2000). Comisión Brunner [The Brunner Commission]. (1994) Los Desafios de la Educacion Chilena Frente al Siglo 21, Comite Tecnico Asesor del Dialogo Nacional sobre la Modernizacion de la Educacion Chilena, Santiago. Companía de Teléfonos de Chile (CTC). (1996). Annual Report. CONAF Online. (2000). (WWW document) www.conaf.cl (accessed 24 August 2000). CONAMA Online. (2000). (WWW document) www.conama.cl (accessed 24 August 2000). CPPS Online. (2000). (WWW document) www.cpps.org.ec/ (accessed 23 August 2000). Dakar Framework for Action, 28 April 2000. Department of Values and Insurances (2000). www.svs.cl. (accessed August 2000). DGAC Online. (2000). (WWW document) www.dgac.cl/dgac1.html (current 24 August 2000). Dirección Meteorológica de Chile. National Reference. www.meteochile.cl/nino/nion-enero/nino.htm (accessed Aug 14- 16 2000) DMC Online. (2000). (WWW document) www.dgac.cl/dirmeteo.htm (current 24 August 2000). DOE Online. (2000). (WWW document) www.doe.gov (current 24 August 2000).
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Dymond, Andrew. (1999). The first mile of connectivity: Public and private interests in achieving viable rural service. Sustainable Development Dimensions/FAO. (WWW document). www.fao.org/waicent/faoinfo/sustdev/CDdirect/CDre0046.htm (accessed 25 August 2000). Enlaces Program. (2000). www.enlaces.ufro.cl/ (accessed 23 August 2000). Equiguren, F.; Suarez, Moreno F. (1999). Permanent Commission of the South Pacific. EFREN. (1998). Thirteenth Meeting of the Scientific Committee of the ERFEN Program. Finerelli, P. (2000). Personal Communication. (interview August 2000). Foundation for Agricultural Innovation. (2000). (WWW document). www.fia.cl, (accessed August 2000). Foundation for Communication, Education and Culture of Agriculture (FUCOA). (2000), www.fucoa.gob.cl, (accessed August 2000). GEOCOM Online. (2000). (WWW document) www.geocom.cl (accessed 24 August 2000). GEOVECTRA Online. (2000). (WWW document) www.geovectr.cl (accessed 24 August 2000). Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment. (2000). (WWW document). globe.fsl.noaa.gov (accessed 24 August 2000). Haubold, A. (2000). Personal communication. (e-mail/interview-United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA) (June 2000). Hauser, Arturo. (1997). The El Niño phenomenon and alluvia in Chile. Scientific Sub-commitee of the Intersector Committee for the El Niño Phenomenon. (Novermber 1997). IDB Online. (2000). (WWW document) www.iadb.org/ (accessed 23 August 2000). INDAP Online. (2000). (WWW document) www.indap.cl (accessed 24 August 2000). INCOM Online. (2000). (WWW document) www.incom.cl (accessed 24 August 2000). INIA Online. (2000). (WWW document) www.inia.cl (accessed 24 August 2000). INOCAR Online. (2000). (WWW document) www.inocar.mil.ec/boletin/clima.html (accessed 23 August 2000). INPESCA Online. (2000). (WWW document) www.inpesca.cl (accessed 24 August 2000). Institute for Agricultural Development. (2000). www.indap.cl, (accessed August 2000). Institute of Agricultural Investigation (2000), www.inia.cl, (accessed August 2000). Inter Agency Task Force Online. (2000). (WWW document) www.unisdr.org/unisdr/ninotask.htm (accessed 21 August 2000). International Telecommunications Union. (2000). Homepage. www.itu.int (accessed August 14-18th 2000) ISDR Online. (2000). (WWW document) www.idndr.org/nino/index.html (accessed 21 August 2000). Knoll, A. (2000). Personal communications. (interview, June 2000). Lopez, Bernhard; Aceituno, Patricio. (1998) Geoclima version 1.1. & User Manuel Departemento de Geofísica. Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas. Universidad de Chile. Maturana, J. (2000). Personal communication (interview-SHOA, August 2000) Meteorological Direction of Chile Online. (2000). (WWW document) www.meteochile.cl (accessed 24 August 2000). Ministry of Agriculture (2000). (WWW document). www.minagri.gob.cl, (accessed August 2000). Ministry of Economy (2000). (WWW document). www.economia.cl (accessed August 2000). Ministry of Economy Online. (2000). (WWW document). www.economia.cl (accessed 24 August 2000). Ministry of Interior. (WWW document). www.economia.cl (accessed 24 10 August 2000). Ministry of Foreign Affairs Online. (2000). (WWW document) www.minrel.cl/ (accessed 24 August 2000). Ministry of Public Works (2000). (WWW document). www.mop.cl, (accessed August 2000). Flores, M. (1999), Combined Group COI-OMM-CPPS on Research Relative to El Niño. COI/OMM/CPPS. NASA. (2000). Homepage and Education Department Initiatives. (WWW document) www.nasa.gov (accessed 5 August 2000). National Chilean Telecommunications Policy (1978). National Commission of Energy (2000). www.cne.cl, (accessed August 2000). National Commission of Environment (2000). www.conama.cl, (accessed August 2000). National Forest Corporation (2000), (WWW document). www.conaf.cl, (accessed August 2000). Office of Agricultural Studies and Policy (2000). (WWW document) :www.odepa.gob.cl, (accessed August 2000).
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Office of Outer Space Affairs (OOSA), United Nations Program on Space Applications. (WWW document). www.oosa.org (accessed August 9-14th 2000). Phelps, M. (2000). Personal Communication (interview July 2000). Pinochet A. (2000). (WWW document). www.lakota.clara.net/index.html (accessed Aug 15th 2000) Puebla, C. (2000). Personal communication. (interview August 2000) Quintas, J. (2000). Personal communication. (phone through Artigas, August 2000). Razon, A. (2000). Personal communication. (email-UNOOSA July 2000) Regional Centres for Space Science & T echnology Educations. (WWW document). www.unvienna.org/SAP/centres/centres.htm (accessed August 9-14th 2000) Reglamento de Servicio Telefonico (from October 1997) Robles, F. (1999), Combined Group COI-OMM-CPPS on Research Relative to El Niño. COI/OMM/CPPS. Rosenblut, J. (1998). Telecommunications in Chile: Success & Post-Deregulatory Challenges in Rapidly Emerging Economy. Journal of International Affairs, March. SAP Online. (2000). (WWW document) www.OOSA.unvienna.org/sapidx.html (accessed 21 August 2000). SEC Online. (2000). (WWW document) www.sec.cl (accessed 24 August 2000). SHOA Online. (2000). (WWW document) www.shoa.cl (accessed 23 August 2000). SUBTEL Telecommunications Company. Annual Report. 1996. Supervision of Electricity and Fuels (2000) (WWW document). www.sec.cl (accessed August 2000). SVS Online. (2000). Citing Internet resources. (WWW document) www.svs.cl (current 24 August 2000). Torres G. (2000). Personal communication. (phone thru Artigas, August 2000) UNEP. (1999). News Release of 21 May 1999. (WWW document) www.grida.no/inf/news/news99/news51.htm (current 18 August 2000). United Nations. (2000). Homepage. www.un.org (accessed August 14-18th 2000). United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. (1982). UNTS vol. 1833, 3. United Nations Resolution 41/65, (3 December 1986). United Nations Resolution 51/122, (13 December 1996). United Nations Resolution 52/200, (18 December 1997). United Nations Resolution 53/185. (2 February 1999). United Nations System Wide Earth Watch. (1998). Declaration of Guayaquil, Ecuador. (WWW document) www.unep.ch/earthw/declguay.htm (current 21 August 2000). Universidad Catolica de Valparaíso. (2000). (WWW document) www.ucv.cl. (accessed August 2000) University of Chile. (2000). (WWW document). www.uchile.cl (accessed 24 August 2000). University of Concepcion Online. (2000). (WWW document). www.udec.com (accessed 24 August 2000). Villigran H. (2000). Personal communication. (discussions at Universidad Tecnica Federico Santa Maria, August 2000). World Meteorological Congress. (1995). WMO Policy and Practice for the Exchange of Meteorological and Related Data and Products Including Guidelines on Relationships in Commercial Meteorological Activities. Resolution 40 (Cg-XII). WMO Online. (2000). Fact Sheet 192. (WWW document) www.who.int/inf-fs/en/fact192.html (accessed 16 August 2000). WMO. (1999). News Release of 22 September 1999. (WWW document) www.wmo.ch/web/Press/Press640.html (accessed 22 August 2000). World Bank Online (2000). (WWW document) www.worldbank.org/ (accessed 21 August 2000).
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6 RECOMMENDATIONS
6.1 INTRODUCTION
The previous chapters illustrate the impacts that the ENSO phenomenon has on the areas in the Southern Pacific Coastal Regions; the technologies that exist to predict and monitor these effects; and the institutions that would be integral to implement cooperative strategies to prepare and react against ENSO. The findings were brought together for consideration to develop steps that could reduce negative effects on the lives of people in this region due to ENSO. The key findings from each area are recounted here.
EFFECTS
Significant physical effects of ENSO include floods, drought, and mudslides. The primary impacts are on agriculture and fishing industries and national infrastructure. Health concerns, such as the spread of diseases, are also important and should be taken into consideration.
TECHNOLOGY
There is a great deal of technology and scientific data available today, but organizations do not disseminate the data effectively (see Chapter 4). Expert systems able to predict the effects of an event like El Niño exist and are used in other parts of the world. However, in South America these systems are not being used operationally and as effectively as possible. It is believed that expert systems could be very beneficial.
INSTITUTIONS
Current regional, national, and international institutions could be effective in supporting preparation strategies and technologies described. However, the institutions require increased support and a higher degree of efficiency.
Based on the findings in these areas, key principles for recommendations are identified. It is decided that the main focus of strategies will rest on preparation efforts because this is where the largest difference can be made. In order to prepare appropriately, technology will be needed to provide guidance for decision makers.
Support from government institutions is necessary to maintain a forecasting system. Recommendations range from immediate implementation at low cost to long-term implementation at higher cost. The recommendations are organized into a fully
Summer Session Program 2000 ISU • ISU • 145 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution integrated framework, demonstrating that the system can be built up gradually as political and financial support become available.
The framework is presented here as a case study for Chile. The foundation of this study is a proposed institution at the national level to improve coordination of ENSO studies and planning efforts. The interactions of this institute within the national government are described. This institute will be the focal point for making decisions related to long term infrastructure planning.
These decisions will rely on predictions that have been made using data gathered from spaceborne, airborne, and oceanographic observations. The technologies that could be beneficial in this process are presented, along with guidelines for the required types of data and how to acquire them. Finally, the role of the general public and end users is described. Recommendations are presented on how to improve communication between the institutions making the decisions and those directly affected.
The development is specific to Chile, in particular the institutional aspect, but the concepts are general and could be extrapolated for use in other parts of the Southern Pacific coast. Following the Chilean case study, regional and international recommendations are provided. Finally, an implementation plan is presented that describes all of the recommendations with their relative costs and the implementation timeline.
6.2 CHILEAN CASE STUDY
This report proposes two main recommendations for Chile; one is short term and the second is meant to evolve in the medium and long-term.
6.2.1 SHORT TERM PROPOSAL
Before the establishment of the ENSO inter-sectorial committee (see Chapter 5), it was recognized that high level coordination was needed to adequately exchange and distribute information and to mitigate the effects. This remains true today, especially since this committee has disbanded.
It is recommended that the inter-sectorial committee be re-established as a first step toward a more comprehensive ENSO-related strategy. The same five areas of action included in the original committee should be incorporated. This short-term structure must be proactive, emphasizing prediction.
During the prediction phase, the scientific subcommittee is active. During the mitigation phase, all other subcommittees become active. After the event, all subcommittees jointly evaluate the quality of the mitigation measures under the supervision of the Ministry of Interior.
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As the private sector has started to recognize the importance of information generated by ENSO expert models, it should actively participate in all stages of the process. Specialized ministries would be contact points for the private sector.
6.2.2 LONG-TERM PROPOSAL: THE NATIONAL ENSO OFFICE (NEO)
In the medium to long-term, it is proposed that a two-phase model be created. The first phase would involve political planning from inside the Ministerio de Planificación Nacional (MIDEPLAN). The second phase would involve operations and implementation of these policies, as directed by the Ministry of Interior. Planning and operations are closely linked phases and highly interactive. Figure 6-1 describes the operational flow of the National ENSO Office.
Planning & Ministries Ministry of Interior Cooperation ENSO NATIONAL OFFICE
Economy, Housing Promotion & and Urban Agriculture Education Mining Public Works and Urban Finance Reconstruction Planning
SUBPESCA ENLACES SERNAGEOMIN Public Works ODEPA SERVIU CONAF SERNATUR TVN Sub-secretary
USERS - APPLICATIONS Public Private International Universities Institutions Institutions Institutions Farmers, Fishermen, Tourists, SHOA, DMC, CPPS, UN, INCOM, UCH, UDEC, IFOP, CIREN, ERFEN, ESA, Students, Community, Engineers, INPESCA UCV, PUC Constructors and Others IGM, INIA NASA Source of Research and Information
Figure 6-1 Proposed framework for the National ENSO Office
The National ENSO Office would be responsible for addressing the global issues outlined above. The NEO would issue guidelines for national ENSO-related development plans, using an interdisciplinary approach. Implementation processes would be controlled and supervised by the Ministry of Interior. The interaction between ministries would facilitate the dissemination of information to users.
International, public and private institutions, and universities combine to act as a source of research and information. This resource group will provide required technical information. In addition, this organized group of experts will interact with the NEO for policy-related issues, and with the Ministry of Interior for operational recommendations. User needs are channeled through the proper ministry to the Ministry of Interior, which constitutes the main coordinating body.
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The Ministry of Finance provides project funding after the project has been approved, according to the requirements established by the Ministry of National Planning [www.mideplan.cl/sni.htm].
A scenario of this framework is outlined in Figure 6-2.
Agriculture example: Planning & 1 Ministry of Interior Cooperation 1. NEO defines ENSO NATIONAL agricultural policy 2 PROGRAM 2. Agricultural policy passed by Interior 5 4 3. ODEPA proposes Agriculture project Finance 4. NEO approves project ODEPA 6 and sends to Finance 5. Finance funds project 3 6. After project ends, new information is added in database 7 NEO 7. Information is Selected communicated to Institution users USERS - APPLICATIONS Farmers Source of Research And Information
Figure 6-2 NEO Process
6.2.3 IMPLEMENTATION
The short and long-term proposals require only minor changes to the current structure in order to enable the country to better cope with ENSO events. It is necessary to lobby for inclusion in the Comité Oceanográfico Nacional (CONA) meeting agenda, scheduled for November 2000. There are some requirements that must be met before the implementation process can take place.
6.2.4 TECHNOLOGY
6.2.4.1 AN ENSO-MITIGATION GIS CONCEPT
Disaster management tools use data collection systems, especially space assets, to monitor and cope with disasters. Much of this technology is still in the research and development phase, as predictability and forecasting systems improve.
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Many Chilean public institutes, industries, and private companies use GIS and Expert Systems to monitor agriculture, fishery, mining, infrastructure, and transportation. It is recommended that international disaster management programs and local GIS activities are coordinated and integrated into the framework described. Figure 6-3 illustrates this concept.
Local GIS Gathering Worldwide disaster expertise and systems Exists management infrastructure (satellites) Today programs
- Acquire and store Adjustment to needed data the ENSO - Organize local phenomena and institutes to the local area
National New ENSO Office
Figure 6-3 Data Flow to National ENSO Office
6.2.4.2 GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS (GIS)
GIS is very useful to monitor land and ocean resources. GIS systems are widely-used tools for resource allocation and disaster management. With increased use of GIS, a better understanding of its capabilities is achieved.
The following paragraphs describe the technical outlines of a Chilean GIS-Expert Systems program dedicated to ENSO preparation and mitigation.
The recommended GIS concept is divided into three main parts:
Data Acquisition and Organization
Analysis and Expert Systems
End-user Products Distribution
Figure 6-4 summarizes the relation between these three parts.
It has been shown that ENSO affects human health, the fishing industry, and agriculture. Each of these fields should have an Expert System to predict the impacts of ENSO and to suggest ways to mitigate them. The following Expert Systems can be used to manage ENSO-related phenomenon.
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Ancillary data Ministries: Health, Economics, Agriculture Satellite Images Industry Airborne Sensors Universities
Analysis and Product Distribution Data Acquisition Expert Systems to End Users and Organization
Storage Research Teams Internet
Processing Dedicated Software Direct Distribution Calibration International Radio Cooperation and Exchange Conferences
Figure 6-4 Flow Diagram for GIS- Expert System
A Health Expert System will determine which population (location) will be affected, and which kind of disease will be most probable. Therefore, a Health Expert System can facilitate determining the amount of vaccines needed for prevention for the population at risk [Scott, 1997].
A Fishery Expert System will determine the probable distribution of fish in a certain area (quantities, species). It also provides the foresight required to choose the correct ship to use, depending on the species to be caught. This information is useful not only for fishermen, but also to establish fish quotas.
An Agriculture Expert System will determine the kind of crop to be planted depending on the climate prediction (normal, El Niño, La Niña) [www.earthsat.com/crop/aboutus /aboutus.html].
A Flood Expert System will determine potential high-risk zones. Floods have an impact on the spread of disease, infrastructure, and individuals [www.oas.org/used /publications/Unit/oea66e/begin.htm#Contents].
A Heavy Storm Expert System can evaluate the impact of heavy rain and strong winds on existing infrastructure. Effected areas include transportation routes, energy sources and facilities; and communication networks.
For the most part, Expert Systems are in a research and development phase, however, Flood Expert Systems are currently operational. GIS can process the data needed by
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Expert Systems, including in situ and remotely sensed data. The required data for Expert Systems is presented in Table 6-1.
Table 6-1 Data Needed for Expert Systems
Expert System In situ inputs Remote sensing inputs
Historical data of past events Hydraulic data Geomorphology/topography* Sediment grain size Meteorological data* Population Historical data of past events* Floods Land use Surface roughness* Type of buildings Land cover* Type of contents Cartography* Infrastructure and activities Sea surface temperature Fisheries Historical data Chlorophyll Soil preparation Types of irrigation system Soil types* Agriculture Pest control Weather conditions* Fertilization Water supplies* Disease treatment Vegetation Land cover Land use Surface water Health Disease information Soil Roads Climate change Rainfall
6.2.4.3 SATELLITES AND MONITORING ENSO EFFECTS
In order to reduce the impacts of ENSO, several studies must be conducted. These activities involve identifying data formats, system requirements, and useful information outputs. Table 6-2 relates each of the ENSO effect activities (excluding fishing information which is quite developed) to relevant required data.
The required input data includes satellite images, local measurements, and historical data. However, as a result of Chile’s long geographical shape and the fact that ENSO is a global phenomenon, utilization of satellite products plays a key role. Table 6-3 shows the required sensors and their associated spatial and temporal resolutions. Combining these tables with those in Chapter 4, the capabilities of current operational satellites can be related to ENSO-related required data (see Table 6-4).
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Table 6-2 Data Needed for ENSO Mitigation ENSO Related Activities Data Requirements Crop management Soil type and moisture Crop types Precipitation Evaporation rate Temperature Disease monitoring Potential standing water areas Precipitation Clouds coverage Population distribution and density Temperature Inland flood warning Land-use Soil type and moisture Precipitation Cloud coverage Evaporation rate Topography Infrastructure Population distribution and density Ice and snow (coverage and depth) Coastal flood warning Ocean level Wind velocities (sea surface) Ocean waves Coastal bathymetry Coast topography Coastal land-use Infrastructure Population distribution and density Soil type and moisture Landslide monitoring Land-use and land-cover Topography Soil moisture and porosity Precipitation Clouds coverage and height Slopes distribution stability Infrastructure Population distribution and density Geology Potential standing water areas Drought assessment Soil wetness and types Climate models Evaporation rate Fire prediction Forests distribution Biomass Vegetation condition Past fire locations Surface temperature Population distribution Wind velocities
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Table 6-3 Required Satellite Data Parameters Minimal Data type\ Spectrum spatial Optimal spatial Minimal Optimal Parameters bands resolution resolution [m] update rate update rate [m] VIS Land use NIR 30 4-5 1-3 years 6 months THIR VIS Infrastructure 5 <=1 1-3 years 6 months IR NIR Vegetation types VIS <= 250 <= 30 3 months 1 month SAR VIS Soil moisture 1000 100 1 month 1 day NIR Coastal SAR < 1000 90 1-3 years 1 month bathymetry SAR Population VIS/PAN 100 5 1-3 years 6 months distribution NIR Topography, Altimetry 100 1 1 year 3 months Slopes SAR (stereo) VIS Cloud coverage 1000 NA 1 week < 1 day IR Surface wetness IR 1000 100 3 months 1 week
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Table 6-4 Recommended Guide for Data Use
Satellite\ Data types types Cloud Cloud Slopes Coastal Coastal Surface Surface wetness Land use Land coverage Vegetation Vegetation Population Population Bathymetry Bathymetry distribution Topography, Topography, Precipitation Soil moisture Soil Infrastructure Infrastructure
CBERS 1/2/3/4 X X X X X X ENVISAT X X X X X X X EOS-AM1 X X X X X X EOS-PM1 X X X X ERS-2 X X X X X X X FASAT-B X X X X GMS-5 X IKONOS-2 X X X X X X X IRS 1C X X X X X X IRS 1D X X X X X X IRS P2 X X X X X X IRS P3 X X X X IRS P4 X X X X IRS P5 X X X X X X X LANDSAT-7 X X X X X X Meteor 3 X X NOAA-GOES-11 X X NOAA-POES 9-14 X Okean 01 X X X Orbview-2 (SeaStar) X Orbview-3 X X X X X X X QuickBird X X X X X X X RADARSAT-1 X X X X X RADARSAT-2 X X X X X Resurs O1 X X X X X X SAC-C X X X X X X Spot-4 X X X X X X X TRMM X X
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6.2.4.4 DISTRIBUTION
Recently, with the extensive development of electronic media, radio transmitters, and the Internet, disseminating information has become relatively easy. In Chile, however, not all of the end users have Internet access or other electronic equipment. Therefore, the real challenges relating to data distribution are mainly organizational. First, there is a need to provide the end users with tools to obtain the information effectively. Secondly, a connection between the research results and the end users must be established.
6.2.4.5 PRELIMINARY PLAN FOR IMPLEMENTATION
Implementing such projects is expensive and requires several phases. Three phases are described below.
PHASE A
Assuming a limited budget, Phase A will utilize existing capabilities. Chile has experience in GIS technology, and there are many industries using satellite images. As a first step, the proposed organization should obtain a database of all of the required parameters. Currently existing ground stations may be used to collect data in Chile. Data may also be obtained from several free data distributors via the Internet. In gathering data from different sources, users must be cautious of spatial resolution and area coverage trade-offs [www/ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/; sputnik.infospace.ru/ welcome.htm; Hamilton (2000); www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/]
PHASE B
In order to provide reliable information, GIS databases must be updated regularly. Advanced data sets including medium resolution multi-spectral and microwave images (10-100 m) can be used as input for mapping operations. However, this data are mostly available commercially and advanced processing techniques are required.
PHASE C
For long-term operations, complete image databases are required. Multi-spectral and microwave images need to be purchased and integrated into a more comprehensive database. Cost constraints may limit the number of images that may be used.
High-resolution images allow for accurate mapping, and will complement the database created in Phase B. The information collected in Phase C will allow for accurate thematic maps to be produced.
Table 6-5 summarizes Phase A, B, and C, and outlines the technical requirements for each phase.
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Table 6-5 Recommended Technical Phases for Implementation for Chile
Phase A B C
Free web sources Very high price Very low cost media Commercial images images purchase delivery Data purchase Extend ground Direct free satellite Regional satellite station facilities acquisition downlink using existing systems cooperation Own developed ground stations dedicated satellite Own satellite
Landsat-7 NOAA POES/GOES SPOT-4 Orbview-2 (SeaWIFS) ERS-2 Relevant Ikonos-2 Resurs 01/Meteor 3 Radarsat-2 Satellites IRS P5 GMS-5 CBERS-1 Orbview-3 (current & EOS-AM1/PM1 SAC-C QuickBird planned) FASAT-B IRS 1C/1D/P3/P4 TRMM Okean 01 Resurs 01/Meteor 3
Broad – most of the Limited – available data All necessary regions Coverage relevant area Spatial Low: 1000 – 100 Medium: 100 – 10 High: <10 resolution [m] Scale 1:250,000 - 1:100,000 1:100,000 – 1:50,000 1:50,000 – 1:5,000 Update 1 - 3 months 1 - 3 months < 1 month requirement Vegetation types Coastal bathymetry Vegetation types Land use / Land Infrastructure Data type* Soil moisture coverage Land use Cloud coverage Topography / Local environment Surface wetness Slopes monitoring Soil moisture / Soil types * Mainly for land applications
6.2.5 USERS
User input to the NEO will be critical for effective policy development. This section recommends a focus on user needs and on filling existing communication gaps. The emphasis is on education and communication.
6.2.5.1 FIELD SURVEY OF NEEDS
To effectively implement a proactive system and minimize ENSO impacts, it is important to gain an understanding of the current situation from affected population. Then, user feedback should include insight on current disaster prevention methods and their
156 • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution effectiveness to date. It is recommended that a field survey of affected areas be conducted. Crucial information would be collected and used in designing and improving information distribution systems. The questions listed below are examples of questions that could be included in such a survey:
How far in advance is information required for effective planning?
What types of changes could be implemented?
What types of preventive measures have been taken for previous El Niño events? Were these measures effective?
6.2.5.2 TRAINING
Training is an essential component for operational use of new technology. A national training program with experienced instructors is required to impart information in each sector. Training packages would be developed and distributed to effected regions. Instructors would travel to different areas and teach the users how the new information and technology applies to them and how they can benefit from it. Training would include data processing techniques, image interpretation, and output information analysis. User feedback would be encouraged to update training programs on a regular basis.
6.2.5.3 PUBLIC RELATION CAMPAIGN
An ENSO Public Relation (PR) Campaign would inform and educate society about the El Niño phenomenon. Some of the important elements to consider include: the nature of the phenomenon, its physical effects, impacts (economic and social), and direct dangers to the population. In addition, the role of the population and the government in the prevention process; the role of technology to predict and monitor the phenomenon; and the importance of technical education and awareness in this process are essential to a successful PR campaign.
The use of public service announcements via radio may be an effective means of implementing a PR program. Wide use in remote areas would make it possible to reach many people, and would thereby increase public awareness of coming events and proposed actions. During non-critical times, public service announcements could be expanded to include education and technology awareness.
6.2.5.4 DEVELOPING NATIONAL EXPERTISE
Developing Expert Systems to predict the effect of ENSO on human health, fisheries, and agriculture, demands much expertise. Many decisions regarding the improvement of weather forecasts are made at the international level, for instance, within the WOCE program [www.soc.soton.ac.uk/OTHERS/woceipo/IOC_99/index.htm]. To play an active role, Chile must expand its network of national experts. Scientists must move beyond the research stage and focus on operational scientific approaches.
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To acquire additional scientific expertise, an international exchange between experts is recommended. Individual experts in Chile could participate in an exchange program working in organizations in other countries. The scientific knowledge gained from working in a collaborative exchange may be transferred back to Chile.
6.2.5.5 EXCHANGE OF WORKERS BETWEEN SECTORS
It is apparent that ENSO events have many different impacts. Locally, these impacts could be minimized if affected individuals for cooperative teams. Lessons learned from one ENSO event to another will assist in future management of events.
6.2.6 COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
It is difficult to fully assess the effectiveness of preventative technology. It is also difficult to convince governments with limited resources to invest in protection against an event that has not yet occurred. In order to overcome these difficulties, it is recommended that a cost benefit analysis be executed to compare the relative effectiveness of the proposed solutions. The information provided from the analysis would ensure that funds were spent effectively.
In the following sections, a cost benefit analysis of the TOGA program is presented followed by two costs associated with the Chilean case study. The cost to update a series of ENSO satellite-based thematic maps and the cost to create the proposed National ENSO Office are roughly estimated.
6.2.6.1 ECONOMIC BENEFIT OF WEATHER PREDICTIONS
Sassone and Weiher (2000) have estimated the internal rate of return (IRR) of the TOGA program by considering the advantage that an improved climate prediction brings to agriculture in the United States. The IRR ranges from 13 to 26% as some parameters vary. In Latin American countries, where a larger fraction of the gross national product comes from agriculture, in comparison to the United States, benefits of improved long- term predictions could be even more significant.
6.2.6.2 ESTIMATED COSTS OF MAPPING
For planning purposes, thematic maps should be updated twice a year depending on seasonality and land use changes. Satellite images with a spatial resolution of 30 m are used for thematic land use maps. This resolution allows for regional planning, at a scale of 1:100 000. Detailed planning requires finer resolutions, such as 15 m from SPOT or 3 m from IKONOS.
For the purpose of this cost analysis, we have concentrated on the populated agriculture areas which account for 15% of Chile. Of this 15%, it is assumed that the land use
158 • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution breakdown is: 5% arable land, 18% pastures, 22% forests, and 55% other (populated areas) [www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/ci.html].
The proposed ENSO satellite-based thematic maps will make use of operational optical and radar image technology. LANDSAT 7 is considered, which has a spatial resolution of 30 m. The commercial price of LANDSAT 7 data is approximately US$1000 and covers an area of 180 km x 180 km (112 x 112 miles) [Eurimage, 2000].
For radar, the European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS) is used as a reference. ERS images cover an area of 100 km x 100 km (62 x 62 miles) at a resolution of 25 m. These images cost approximately US$4000 [Eurimage, 2000].
Raw satellite images require extensive processing to create useful thematic maps. For the purpose of this analysis, it is assumed that the value-added processing equates to 5 times the cost of the original image.
Under these assumptions, the cost to update ENSO thematic maps twice a year is approximately US$500,000 per year.
ESTIMATED COST OF THE NATIONAL ENSO OFFICE
As a first approximation of the cost for the National ENSO Office, only personnel expenses are included. Two cases are considered for the size of this office: 7 and 16 employees (see Table 6-6). The salaries are a rough estimation of Chilean salaries [Puebla-Menne, 2000].
With 7 employees, the total cost is US$132,000 per year, while with 16 employees, the cost is approximately US$280,000 per year.
Table 6-6 Estimated cost of the NEO personnel with 7 and 16 employees. Case 1: 7 employees Case 2: 16 employees Level Salary per Number of Total per Number of Total per year (US$) employees year (US$) employees year (US$) Manager 35000 1 35000 1 35000 Professional 20000 4 80000 10 200000 Technician 10000 1 10000 3 30000 Accountant 7000 1 7000 2 14000 Totals 7 132000 16 279000
6.3 REGIONAL PROPOSALS
This section provides a detailed framework that could be implemented at the regional level. Modifications may be needed, as each region is unique, however, the concepts and benefits are consistent.
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Regional proposals are provided to highlight benefits of enhanced cooperation between the countries of Chile, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia. For the purposes of this report, Chile has been chosen as the focus country.
6.3.1 INTER-REGIONAL COOPERATION
In addressing the ENSO problem, the Pacific Coast of South America could benefit from collaboration, whereby local technologies and information distribution methods could be adopted by neighboring countries. For example, the GIS systems developed at the Universidad de Valparaiso, Chile, to monitor fish productivity in the Pacific Ocean may be adapted and used in countries like Ecuador and Peru that have comparable fishing economies and share the same oceanic resources.
6.3.2 VIRTUAL INFORMATION EXCHANGE
With an increasingly global community, the exchange of information on a large scale may be facilitated using the Internet. With respect to information exchange related to ENSO, effected populations worldwide may communicate through the proposed Virtual Information Exchange. A “Virtual Information Exchange” relating to ENSO would coordinate activities at the regional and ministry levels on the South American Pacific coast.
The Comisión Permanente del Pacífico Sur (CPPS) would coordinate the Virtual Information Exchange program. This would involve distributing regional information to national points of contact. This would involve coordination of Ministerial meetings and communications via Web-based discussions. The regional level might also choose to incorporate links to international organization Web sites.
The National ENSO Office would be in charge of outlining the general topics on the discussion board level in Chile. Moderators would be representative of the general public, internal ministry, private sector, and academic sectors, and would have the opportunity to pose and reply to questions posted on the Web concerning ENSO.
6.3.3 ELECTRIC POWER PROPOSAL
Hydroelectricity is one of the major sources of energy in Colombia and Ecuador. As a result, long regional droughts produce deficits in the electricity budget. During past El Niño events, electricity rationing took place. This led to severely affected industrial operations, lower national competitiveness, and reduced industrial output (Lobo- Guerrero, 2000). Alternate energy sources are a necessity, and since natural gas is abundant and cheap, thermal generation plants should be built and installed before the next El Niño event. Portable power plants could be an effective solution. During times of energy surplus, they can be dismantled, moved, and possibly even rented to another country in need of short-term energy production. Long-term planning is a must. If electricity rationing is foreseen, stocks of portable power plants should be imported by the government, to allow for inexpensive supply of power.
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6.3.4 EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR EQUATORIAL WAVES
ENSO has caused severe damage in all of the countries considered in this report. Some of the most severe damage has been felt in Ecuador and Peru, where nearly 300 people lost their lives due to the 1997/1998 ENSO event. Addressing this issue, an Early Warning System based on Equatorial Waves (EWSEW) is possible.
Equatorial internal waves are fast moving and may be a useful indicator of an ENSO onset. Currently, these waves are only identified using tidal gauges in the Galapagos Islands. Given the distance between the Galapagos Islands and the Pacific Coast of South America, the waves may only be observed approximately four days in advance, which is not sufficient to implement the necessary measures for an ENSO onset.
Although existing satellites and buoys can identify approaching equatorial waves, an Early Warning System does not yet exist. A possible technical solution for such a system is described in this report. The emphasis is put on the use of available satellite and buoy data, which are often free of charge and available on a near-real time basis in both Ecuador and Peru. The development of an operational EWSEW would be integrated with existing preparedness and communication systems. This cooperative approach would improve the overall performance of disaster management efforts in Ecuador and Peru.
Once identified by the EWSEW, the threat an ENSO onset needs to be efficiently communicated to local authorities and planners. Timely and effective warning notification would facilitate mitigation procedures, and the proposed EWSEW would provide advanced warning at least 14 days ahead of the predicted event.
The Defensa Civil Nacional, which forms part of the Ministry of Defense, addresses disaster mitigation issues affecting Ecuador. The equivalent in Peru is the Instituto de Defensa Civil. Both institutions need to be linked to the entity operating the EWSEW, in order for successful implementation of the technical sub-system at a university level (see Chapter 4).
It is proposed that graduate students could study information from previous ENSO events and compare this to available data from buoys and satellites. This would provide a low-cost framework analysis for developing the EWSEW software. Operational systems should be able to identify equatorial waves as a first step, and then provide a validation and optimization phase to verify the accuracy of the technical system.
The institution hosting the EWSEW would have direct access to NOAA and CNES data for their work. Based on the predictions generated by an operational EWSEW, an alert could be issued to the national disaster management authorities involved in mitigating the impacts of ENSO. Radio, bulletins, and other notification procedures could be used simultaneously to warn the population two weeks before the ENSO effects reach the coast.
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6.4 INTERNATIONAL RECOMMENDATIONS
ENSO, by its very nature, calls for international coordinated strategies. The United Nations (UN) Resolution on “ International Cooperation to Reduce the Impact of the El Niño Phenomenon ” calls to “ incorporate in sustainable development programs, at the national, regional and international levels, strategies to prevent, mitigate and rehabilitate the damage caused by natural disasters “ [UN Res. 52/200 of 18 December 1997].
This Resolution called upon states and relevant intergovernmental bodies to participate in activities aimed to reduce El Niño impacts [UN Res. 44/236 of 22 December 1989].
To achieve this end, the Secretary General of the United Nations was requested to facilitate, an international strategy to integrate the prevention, mitigation, and rehabilitation of damages caused by the El Niño phenomenon [www.unisdr.org/].
The World Weather Watch, one the most efficient programs of the World Meteorological Organization, has been a successful. It has been demonstrated that combining observation systems, telecommunication facilities, and data-processing centers worldwide can help the global community to reliably predict weather. Given an open exchange of ENSO-related data, positive results could be achieved in observing and predicting climate variations.
6.5 IMPLEMENTATION
In the previous sections, key principles for recommendations were described in order to predict, monitor and distribute information about ENSO phenomenon. Those recommendations range from immediate implementation at low cost to long-term implementation at higher cost. They are summarized in Table 6-7.
6.6 SUMMARY
This report has analyzed the impact of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation on Chile and the South American Pacific coast. It has also described existing ENSO-related institutions and assessed technology assets used to monitor, predict, and distribute information about this phenomenon. The recommendations presented in this chapter emphasize the critical integration between these components. Specific recommendations related to institutions, ENSO effects, and technology are outlined. Communication at all levels is imperative to reduce the impacts of ENSO in Chile, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia. We believe this report will be a significant contribution to current and future ENSO investigation. ENSO is a global challenge and this report provides keys to a solution.
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Table 6-7 Table of Implementation Steps
Develop own expertise in Develop expert system for ENSO prediction (weather forecast and prediction expert system) Consider redistribution of Improve accuracy of forecast manpower during ENSO models
Exchange of ENSO experts and Generate a consensus on forecast students Change to a permanent Improve and/or extend education representation in CPPS on the university level Increase in-situ measurements Implement end user training (buoys, pluviometers)
Assess and coordinate local data Implement and maintain GIS for acquisition ENSO Implement and promote Virtual Obtain more existing data Institute Organize ENSO Publish Relation Develop an Early Warning System Campaign for Equatorial Waves Use existing resources for Implement vaccinations and prediction (Remote Sensing prophylactic measures to control Institutions and Ground Stations) the spread of infectious diseases Identify and utilize communication channels for advance warning (use of radio) HR EMMDU EMLONGTERM TERM MEDIUM SHORT TERM Incorporate Space Kit in primary school Perform a field survey of needs Perform a cost benefit analysis Enlarge audience of the CPPS newsletter Improve format and content of the CPPS newsletter LOW COST MEDIUM COST HIGH COST
6.7 REFERENCES
INTERNET RESOURCES
CIA – The World Factbook 1999 (WWW document) www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/ci.html (Accessed 23/8/00). CLAES Central Laboratory for Agricultural Expert Systems (WWW document) www.potato.claes.sci.eg/claes/ (Accessed 24/8/00) Cropsat (WWW document) www.earthsat.com/crop/aboutus/aboutus.html (Accessed 22/8/00) DLR-TUBSAT (WWW document) tubsat.fb12.tu-berlin.de/ (Accessed 24/8/00) Dundee University. Dundee Satellite Receiving Station, Dundee University, UK, (WWW document) www.sat.dundee .ac.uk/ (Accessed 22/8/00) GHCC. Global Hydrology Resource Center (WWW document) wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/ (Accessed 22/8/00) Primer on Natural Hazard Management in Integrated Regional, Development Planning, Department of Regional Development and Environment Executive Secretariat for Economic and Social Affairs Organization of American States. (WWW document) www.oas.org/usde/publications/Unit/oea66e/begin.htm#Contents (Accessed 22/8/99) Roper, M.H. et al Spatial Patterns of Malaria Case Distribution in Padre Cocha, Peru, 1998 GIS Conference, (WWW document) www.atsdr.cdc.gov/GIS/conference98/proceedings/html/roper.html (Accessed 22/8/99) SOC. Southampton Oceanographic Center, Citing Internet resources (WWW document) www.soc.soton.ac.uk/OTHERS/woceipo/IOC_99/index.htm, (Accessed 22/8/00) Sputnik Server.sputnik.infospace.ru/welcome.htm (Accessed 22/8/00)
Summer Session Program 2000 ISU • ISU • 163 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution
Surrey Satellite Technology LTD, www.sstl.co.uk/services/subpage_ services.html (Accessed 24/8/00) Weather Satellite Image Pages (WWW document) www.riglib.demon.co.uk/index.htm (Accessed 22/8/00)
OTHER RESOURCES
Barbieri, M.A. & Silva, C. (2000). Personal communication. Instituto de Fomento Pesquero (IFOP) and Universidad Católica de Valparaíso. Eurimage (2000). Price list, June 2000. Puebla-Menne C. (2000). Personal communicaiton. Sassone,PG & Weiher,RF (2000) “Cost Benefit Analysis of TOGA and the ENSO Observing System”, incomplete reference from unknown source, pp. 47-56. Scott, J.C. (1997). Earth Observation, Hazard Analysis and Communications Technology for Early Warning, International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction Early Warning Program, Convener of International Working Group, United Nations, Geneva.
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APPENDICES
A REMOTE SENSING SATELLITES IN THE VISIBLE SPECTRUM.
Visible Spectrum
Satellite Sensor Pixel (m) Swath width Repeat (km) Coverage (day) CBERS-1 IRMSS 80 120 26 CBERS-1 CCD (PAN) 20 120 26 CBERS-1 CCD 20 120 26 ENVISAT MERIS 300 1150 3 1200 ENVISAT AATSR 1000 500 NA EOS-AM1 ASTER 15 60 2-3.5 EOS-AM1 MODIS 250-1000 2330 < 2 EOS-PM1 MODIS 250-1000 2330 < 2 ERS-2 ATSR 1000 500 NA GMS-5 VISSR 1250 ------IKONOS-2 Carterra-PAN 1 11 2 - 3.5 IKONOS-2 Carterra-VIS 4 11 2 - 3.5 IRS 1C LISS 3 (G,R) 23 142 5 IRS 1C WiFS (R) 189 810 5 IRS 1C PAN 5.8 70 5 IRS 1D LISS 3 (G,R) 23 142 5 IRS 1D WiFS (R) 189 774 5 IRS 1D PAN 6 70 5 IRS P5 LISS 4 6-23 40 22
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Visible Spectrum (cont’d) Satellite Sensor Pixel (m) Swath width Repeat (km) Coverage (day) IRS P2 LISS 2 32x37 67 NA IRS P3 MOS B 523 200 NA IRS P3 WiFS (R) 189 810 5 IRS P4 OCM 360x250 1420 2 IRS P5 PAN 2.5 30 26 LANDSAT-7 ETM 30 180 16 LANDSAT-7 PAN 15 180 16 Meteor 3-06 STVS global 700x1400 3100 NA Meteor 3-06 STVS 1000x2000 2600 NA transmission METEOSAT-7 MVIRI 2500 --- 2 pictures/hour NOAA-GOES- Imager 1000 --- 2 pictures/hour 11 NOAA-POES 9- AVHRR 1100 3000 12 hours 14 Okean O1 MSU-S (G) 370 1100 NA Okean O1 MSU-M 2000 1900 NA Orbview-2 SeaWIFS 1100 / 4500 1500 / 2800 1 Orbview-3 Orbview-3 4 8 < 3 Orbview-3 Orbview-3 (PAN) 1 8 < 3 QuickBird QBM 3.28 22 1-5 QuickBird QBP 0.82 22 1-5 Resurs O1-3 MSU-SK 170 600 4 Resurs O1-4 MSU-SK1 225 714 4 SAC-C MMRS 350/175 360 2 or 7 SAC-C HRTC (PAN) 30 90 2 or 7 SPOT-4 HRVIR 20 60 2.4 SPOT-4 VEG 1150 2200 1 TRMM VIRS 2000 720 1 TRMM VIRS 2200 720 1
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B REMOTE SENSING SATELLITES IN THE NEAR INFRARED SPECTRUM
Near Infrared Spectrum (NIR) Satellite Sensor Pixel (m) Swath width Repeat (km) Coverage (day) CBERS-1 IRMSS 80 120 26 CBERS-1 CCD 20 120 26 ENVISAT AATSR 1000 500 NA ENVISAT MERIS 300 1150 3 (1200) EOS-AM1 ASTER 15 60 2-3.5 EOS-AM1 MODIS 250-1000 2330 < 2 EOS-PM1 MODIS 250-1000 2330 < 2 ERS-2 ATSR 1000 500 NA FASAT-B WAC 2000 1500x1050 21 FASAT-B NAC 120 93x62 21 IKONOS-2 Carterra 4 11 2 - 3.5 IRS 1C LISS 3 23.6 142 5 IRS 1C WiFS 189 810 5 IRS 1D LISS 3 (G,R) 23 142 5 IRS 1D WiFS (R) 189 774 5
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Near Infrared Spectrum (NIR) (cont’d) Satellite Sensor Pixel (m) Swath width Repeat (km) Coverage (day) IRS P2 LISS 32x37 67 NA IRS P3 MOS A 1569x1395 195 NA IRS P3 MOS B 523 200 NA IRS P3 WiFS (Red) 189 810 5 IRS P4 OCM 360x250 1420 2 IRS P5 LISS 4 6-23 40 22 LANDSAT-7 ETM 30 180 16 METEOSAT 7 MVIRI 2500 --- 2 pictures/hour METEOSAT-7 MVIRI 2500 --- 2 pictures/hour NOAA-POES 9-14 AVHRR 1100 3000 12 hours Okean O-1 MSU-S 370 1100 NA Okean O-1 MSU-M 2000 1900 NA Orbview-2 SeaWIFS 1100 / 4500 1500 / 2800 1 Orbview-3 Orbview-3 4 8 < 3 QuickBird QBM 3.28 22 1-5 Resurs O1-3 MSU-SK 170 600 4 Resurs O1-4 MSU-SK1 225 714 4 SAC-C MMRS 350/175 360 2 or 7 SPOT-4 HRVIR 20 60 2.4 SPOT-4 VEG 1150 2200 1 TRMM VIRS 2000 720 1
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C REMOTE SENSING SATELLITES IN THE SHORT WAVE INFRARED SPECTRUM
Short Wave Infrared Spectrum Satellite Sensor Pixel (m) Swath width Repeat Coverage (km) (day) CBERS-1 IRMSS 80 120 26 ENVISAT AATSR 1000 500 NA EOS-AM1 ASTER 30 60 2-3.5 EOS-AM1 MODIS 250-1000 2330 < 2 EOS-PM1 MODIS 250-1000 2330 < 2 ERS-2 ATSR 1000 500 NA FASAT-B WAC 2000 1500x1050 21 FASAT-B NAC 120 93x62 21 IRS 1C LISS 3 70.8 148 5 IRS 1D LISS 3 (G,R) 70 148 26 IRS P3 MOS C 523x644 192 26 IRS P3 WiFS (Red) 189 810 5 IRS P5 LISS 4 6-23 40 22 LANDSAT-7 ETM 30 180 16 METEOSAT 7 MVIRI 2500 --- 2 pictures/hour NOAA-GOES-11 Imager 1000 --- 2 pictures/hour NOAA-POES 9-14 AVHRR 1100 2400 12 hours Resurs O1-4 MSU-SK1 810 714 4 SAC-C MMRS 350/175 360 2 or 7 SPOT-4 HRVIR 20 60 2.4 SPOT-4 VEG 1150 2200 1 TRMM VIRS 2000 720 1 TRMM VIRS 2200 720 1
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D REMOTE SENSING SATELLITES IN THE THERMAL INFRARED SPECTRUM
Thermal Infrared Spectrum Satellite Sensor Pixel Swath Repeat Comments width Coverage (day) (m) (km) CBERS-1 IRMSS 160 120 26 ENVISAT AATRS NA 500 NA <0.5 K EOS-AM1 ASTER 90 15 2-3.5 EOS-AM1 MODIS 250-1000 2330 < 2 EOS-PM1 MODIS 250-1000 2330 < 2 ERS-2 ATSR 50000 500 NA 0.5 K GMS-5 VISSR (10- 5000 ------12 m) LANDSAT-7 ETM+ 60 180 16 Meteor 3-06 SIRR 3000 3100 NA Meteor 3-06 SIRS 35000 400 NA METEOSAT 7 MVIRI 5000 ------NOAA-GOES-11 Imager 1000 --- 2 pictures/hour NOAA-POES 9-14 AVHRR 1100 3000 12 hours Resurs O1-3 MSU-SK 600 600 4 Range: 210- 320 0.4 K Resurs O1-4 MSU-SK1 810 714 4 TRMM VIRS 8000 720 1
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E REMOTE SENSING SATELLITES IN THE MICROWAVE SPECTRUM
Microwave Satellite Sensor Frequency Pixel (m) Swath Repeat Comments (GHz) width Coverage (km) (day) ENVISAT ASAR NA 30-150 56-406 3 ERS-2 AMI-SAR 5.3 <30 100 16 (image mode) ERS-2 AMI-SAR 5.3 <30 >5 16 Direction: 20 (wave mode) Wave length: 100- 1000 m ERS-2 Wind- NA >45000 500 NA Wind speed range: 4-24 Scatterometer 2 m/s Direction: 20. IRS P4 MSMR 6.6, 10.65, NA 1360 2 18, 21 Okean O-1 RLS-BO 10 1300/ 450 NA 2500 QuickSat SeaWinds 13.4 25000 1800 1.1 Wind speed range: 3-20 2 m/s Direction: 20. RADARSAT 1 SAR 5.3 6-28 50-150 1-5 RADARSAT 2 SAR NA 1-100 10-500 1-5 TRMM PR 13.8 4300 215 NA Phased array. Height range 0-15 km with 250 m resolution Sensitivity: 0.5 mm/h TRMM TMI 10.7, 19.4, 21000 760 NA 21.3, 37, 85.5
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F REMOTE SENSING SATELLITES FOR ALTIMETRY
Altimetry
Satellite Sensor Accuracy
(m)
ENVISAT RA-2 0.1
ERS-2 RA 0.1
JASON-1 POSEIDON-2 NA
TOPEX/Poseidon RA 0.024
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G DATA COLLECTED BY NOAA AOC HEAVY AIRCRAFT DURING FLIGHT
GPS latitude Aircraft slip angle GPS longitude Vertical ground speed Aircraft heading Vertical airspeed Flight Aircraft track Radar altitude Level Ground speed GPS altitude (in situ) Indicated airspeed Temperature Aircraft pitch Wet bulb temperature Aircraft roll Ambient pressure Aircraft angle of attack Dynamic (impact) pressure Sea surface wave direction Video photography (scatterometers) Remotely SST, cloud temperature (radiometers) Sea surface wind speed (step microwave Sensed Radiation (pyranometers) radiometers) (Sensor) Radiation (pyrgeometers) Air chemistry sensors Radar Ocean biological studies (color optical scanners) Air temperature SST (AXBTs) From Dew point temperature SST and temperature profiles (AXBTs) Probes Atmospheric pressure Horizontal sea current profile (AXCPs) (Sensor) Horizontal winds Vertical winds Wind direction Relative humidity Wind speed Pressure altitude Derived Vertical wind Extrapolated surface pressure Ambient air temperature Geopotential height Dew/frost point
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H UPPER-AIR STATIONS IN CHILE, PERU, COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR.
*Re- Country Name Index No. Station Name POSITION PROGRAM GCOS Geo Ht Index RADIOSOND Frequency Ground RADIAITON WINDFINDING gion Y/N Calc No. E Equipment CORR
Lat. Long HP HHA TEMP PILOT Regular Altern System/Method Equipment ative
Y/N Type III CHILE 85586 SANTO 33 39S 71 37W 75 0012 Y AUTO 85586 VRS80G 401-406 Digicora Y V86 GPS Digicora DOMINGO
III CHILE 85799 PUERTO 41 26S 73 06W 90 0012 Y AUTO 85799 VRS80G 401-406 Digicora Y V86 GPS Digicora MONTT III CHILE 85934 PUNTA 53 00S 70 51W 43 12 Y AUTO 85934 VRS80G 401-406 Digicora Y V86 GPS Digicora ARENAS III COLOMBIA 80035 RIOHACHA/AL 11 32N 72 56W 4 12 N AUTO 80035 VRS80N 401-406 Marwin II Y V86 No windfinding MIRANTE PADILLA III COLOMBIA 80222 BOGOTA/ELD 04 42N 74 09W 2546 2547 0012 Y AUTO 80222 AIR VIZ 1680 AIR N Radiotheodolite AIR ORADO III COLOMBIA 80241 LAS 04 33N 70 55W 167 171 12 N AUTO 80241 VRS80N 401-406 Marwin II Y V86 No windfinding GAVIOTAS III COLOMBIA 80398 LETICIA/VASQ 04 33S 69 32W 84 84 12 N AUTO 80398 VRS80G 401-406 Digicora Y V86 GPS Digicora UEZ COBO
III ECUADOR 84008 SAN 00 26S 89 36W 6 00 06 Y AUTO 84008 VRS80N 401-406 Digicora Y V86 No windfinding Digicora CRISTOBAL (Galapagos Is.)
III PERU 84628 LIMA- 12 00S 77 07W 13 12 12 Y - 84628 VIZ A GMD - Radiotheodolite GMD CALLAO/AER OP. INTERNACION AL JORGE CHAVEZ
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I SUMMARY OF OCEANOGRAPHIC SYSTEMS
Global Drifter Program Name TAO TRITON PIRATA SEAS ARGO (GDP)
France: METEO France and CNRS, 8 countries 7 countries collaboration + Owner NOAA (US) JAMSTEC (Japan) Brazil: INPE and NOAA collaboratio participation of DHN, n the E.U. USA: NOAA
www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/da www.dbcp. www.ifremer.fr/orsto www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga- www.jamstec.go.jp/ja c/dac.html; nos.noaa.g www.argo.ucsd m/pirata/pirataus.htm tao/project.html mstec/TRITON/ ov/seas/se .edu/ Website l www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/da as.html c/gdc.html
Number 65 5 10 (future 20) 14 450 80 3000
Tropical Atlantic Drifting buoys: Pacific Ocean Western Pacific Voluntary Global On the Ocean: 10S,10W; (30S-30N, 110E-80W) and Ocean: 8N,156E; observing coverage of all equator at 0S,10W; 15N,38W; Atlantic Ocean (10N-80N, 5N,156E; 2N,156E; ships over oceans. Eastern and central 110°W, 8N,38W; 0N,35W; 80W-20E). Location 0N,156E; 2S,156E; Pacific, Average 3º Pacific Ocean 140°W, 11.5N,38W; 5S,156E; 5N,147E; Deployment log: Atlantic and latitude and 170°W, 165°E 4N,38W; 0N,23W; 0N,147E; 2N,138E; Indian longitude and 147°E 0N,0W; 6S,10W; 0N,138E; www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/da Oceans spacing. 1.4N,10W; 1.4S,10W c/deployed.html
Surface wind speed and direction; current Sea surface Surface wind speed + upper speed and direction; temperature, deep and direction; air ocean current barometric pressure sea temperature (up temperature, relative Profiles of sea (10 to 250 m) (air and water), air to 500m), air Ocean humidity; sea surface temperature, Data via Acoustic temperature, temperature, salinity Sea surface temperature, sea subsurface temperature and ten salinity from – Doppler humidity, (0, 50, 150 m), level pressure, short wave temperatur subsurface 2000m, mid- Current precipitation, short rainfall, humidity, radiation, surface velocity e (up to Monitored temperatures to a depth flow Profilers wave radiation, sea subsurface pressure 2000 m) maximum depth of velocity (ADCP) surface temperature, (surface, 300, 450 500 m; rainfall and system salinity and deep m), incoming short short-wave radiation water temperature wave radiation until 750m depth.
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OCEANOGRAPHIC SYSTEMS (CONT’D)
Global Drifter Name TAO TRITON PIRATA SEAS ARGO Program (GDP) Sampling period: 1 day (during ascent); Measurement period : 10 minutes (available One measurement each after 2-3 months); Measurement period : 10 Sampling period: 10 Punctual 2m between 0 and minutes (available after measureme Temporal minutes (available); 500m, every 5m Averaged period : 1hour one year) ; Averaged nt: probe otherwise until 2000m; Resolution (available after 2-3 period : 1hour (available Averaged period: 1 day dropped months); Averaged daily) (available daily) from a ship A cycle is roughly two period : 1 day (available weeks long; daily) Data collected are available within hours.
Database Home : Home : Data display: www.aoml.noaa.go www.dbcp.n Will be available on line, Location www.pmel.noaa.gov/tog www.ifremer.fr/orstom/pi v/phod/dac/dacdat os.noaa.gov/ on the sites linked with a-tao/datdis.html www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga- rata/miroir/display.html a.html seas/daily1. the Upper Ocean tao/datdis.html htm Thermal Data Centers. Real-time: Daily average: Archive: www.pmel.noaa.gov/tog Real-time: a-tao/realtime.html www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga- www.ifremer.fr/orstom/pi www.aoml.noaa.go tao/realtime.html rata/miroir/deliv.html v/phod/dac/meds.h Data display: tml www.pmel.noaa.gov/tog Data display High resolution data:
a-tao/datdel.html www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga- www.pmel.noaa.gov/tog tao/datdel.html a-tao/pirata/deliv/
Data Argos and GTS Argos and GTS Argos and GTS Argos and GTS Inmarsat-C, Argos and ORBCOMM Collecting GOES, System Argos and GTS
176 • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution
LIST OF ACRONYMS
A/CONF United Nations Conference Paper AATSR Advanced Along-Track Scanning Microwave Radiometer AC Atmospheric Corrector ADCP Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers ADEOS Advanced Earth Observing Satellite AIRS Atmospheric Infrared Sounder ALI Advanced Land Imager AMDAR Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay AMI Active Microwave Instrument AMIP Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project AMR Advanced Microwave Radiometer AMSR Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer AMSR/E Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS AMSU Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit AOC Aircraft Operation Center ASAP Automated Shipboard upper-Air sounding facilities ASAR Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar ASTER Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer ATLAS Autonomous Temperature Line Acquisition System ATSR Along-Track Scanning Microwave Radiometer AVHRD Advanced Very High Resolution Data AVHRR Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer AXBT Aircraft Expendable Bathythermograph AXCP Aircraft Expendable Current Probes BAC Climate Alert Bulletin BMRC Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre in Melbourne BP Background Paper CARSAT Servicio de Cartas Satelitales para las Empresas Pesqueras
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CBERS China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite CCCP Pacific Contamination Control Center CCD Charged Coupled Device CDC Climate Diagnostic Center CDEP Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction CENDOC Centro Nacional de Datos Oceanográficos CEOS Committee on Earth Observation Satellites CHAART Center for Health Applications of Aerospace Related Technology CIREN Centro de Investigación en Recursos Naturales CLAES Central Laboratory for Agricultural Expert Systems CLIVAR Climate Variability and Predictability for the 21st Century CNES Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales CONA National Oceanographic Committee CONAE Comisión Nacional de Actividades Espaciales CPPS Comisión Permanente del Pácifico Sud (Permanent Commission of South Pacific) CPR Cloud Profiling Radar CPTEC Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos CTC Companía de Teléfonos de Chile DBCP Data Buoy Cooperation Panel DIU Data Information Unit DMC Dirección Meteorologica de Chile DOALOS Division for the Ocean Affairs Law of the Sea ECLAC Economic Commission of Latin America and the Caribbean ECMWF European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts EGOS European Group on Ocean Station EIS Earth Imaging Sensor ENSO El Niño and the Southern Oscillation ENVISAT Environmental Satellite EOS Earth Observation System ERFEN Regional Study of El Nino Phenomena ERFÉN Estudios Regional del Fenómeno El Niño ERS European Remote Sensing Satellite
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ESA European Space Agency ETM Enhanced Thematic Mapper EWSEW Early Warning System for Equatorial Waves FAISAT Final Analysis Inc. Satellite FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FUCOA Fundación de Comunicación del Agro (Foundation for Communication in the Agricultural Field) GA General Assembly (of the UN) GCM General Circulation Model GCOS Global Climate Observing System GDP Global Drifter Program GEO Geostationary Earth Orbit GIEWS Global Information Early Warning System GIS Geographic Information System GLAS Geoscience Laser Altimeter System GLD Global Lagrangian Drifters GLI Global Imager GLOBE Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment GMS Geostationary Meteorological Satellite GMT Greenwich Mean Time GOALS Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System GODAE Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment GOES Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite GOMS Geo-stationary Operational Meteorological Satellite GOOS Global Ocean Observing System GOS Global Observation System GPS Global Positioning System GSFC Goddard Space Flight Center GTS Global Telecommunication System HIS Hyperspectral Imaging Instrument HRTC High Resolution Technology-demonstrator Camera HRVIR High Resolution Visible Infrared Radiometer IABP International Arctic Buoy Program
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IBPIO International Buoy Program for the Indian Ocean ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization ICO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission IDB Inter American Development Bank IFOP Instituto de Fomento Pesquero IGM Instituto Geográfico Militar IHO International Hydrographic Organization ILAS Improved Limb Atmospheric Spectrometer IMARPE Peruvian Institute of the Sea IMARSAT International Maritime Satellite INIA Instituto de Investigaciones Agropecuarias INOCAR Navy Oceanographic Institute INPE Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais INS Inertial Navigation System IOC Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission IPAB International Program for Antarctic Buoys IRD Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement IRIS Intercontinental Retrieval of Information via Satellite IRMSS Infrared Multi-Spectral Sensor IRS Indian Remote Sensing Satellite ISABP International South Atlantic Buoy Program ISDR International Strategy for Disaster Mitigation ISRO Indian Space Research Organization ITCZ Inter Tropical Convergence Zone JAMSTEC Japan Marine Science and Technology Center LEO Low Earth Orbit LIDAR Light Detecting and Ranging LISS Linear Imaging Self-Scanning Sensor LOS line-of-sight MACAWS Multi-center Airborne Coherent Wind Sensor MERIS Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer MetOp Meteorological Operational MIDEPLAN Ministerio de Planificación Nacional (National Planning Ministery)
180 • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution
MIRAS Microwave Imaging Radiometer using Aperture Synthesis MMRS Multi-spectral Medium Resolution Scanner MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer MOS Multi-spectral Opt electronic Scanner MSMR Multi-frequency Scanning Microwave Radiometer MSU-M Multi-spectral Scanner -Low Resolution MSU-S Multi-spectral Scanner -Moderate Resolution MSU-S K Multi-spectral Scanner -Moderate Resolution, Conical Scanning MVIRI METEOSAT Visible and Infrared Imager NAC Narrow Arial Coverage NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research NCEP National Centers for Environmental Prediction NEO National ENSO Office NOAA National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration NSIPP NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project NTU National Taiwan University OCM Ocean Color Monitor OCS Operations Control System ODEPA Oficina de Estudios y Políticas Agrarias (Office of Agricultural Studies and Policies) OGP Office of Global Programs ONEMI Office for National Emergencies OSC Orbital Sciences Corporation PABSI Profiling A-band Spectrometer/ Visible Imager PAN Panchromatic PCS Personal Communication Systems PIRATA Pilot Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic PMEL Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory POES Polar Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite PR Precipitation Radar PR Public Relation PUC Pontificia Universidad Católica
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QBM QuickBird Multispectral QBP QuickBird Panchromatic RA Radar Altimeter RAMSES Radiométrie Appliquée à la Mesure de la Salinité et de l'Eau dans le Sol RS Remote Sensing SAFIR Satellite for Information Relay SAP Space Application Program (of the UN) SAR Synthetic Aperture Radar SEAS Shipboard Environmental Acquisition System SeaWiFS Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor SERNAGEOMIN Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería SERNATUR Servicio Nacional de Turismo SERVIU Servicio de Vivienda y Urbanismo SHOA Chilean Navy Hydrographic and Oceanographic Institute SIRR Scanning IR Radiometer SIRS Scanning IR Spectrometer SMOS Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity SOI Southern Oscillation Index SPOT Système Pour l'Observation de la Terre SSH Sea Surface Height SSR Spin Scan Radiometer SSS Sea Surface Salinity SST Sea Surface Temperature SSTL Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd. ST Scanning Telephotometer STR Scanning Television Radiometer STVS Scanning TV Sensor SUBPESCA Subsecretaría de Pesca TAO Tropical Atmosphere Ocean TIP Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Implementation Panel TIROS Television and Infrared Observation Satellite TMI TRMM Microwave Imager
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TOGA Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere TOPEX Topography Experiment for Ocean Circulation TRITON Triangle Trans-Ocean Buoy Network TRMM Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission TT&C Telemetry, Tracking, and Command TVN Televisión Nacional de Chile UCH Universidad de Chile UCN Catholic University of the North UCV Universidad Catolica de Valparaíso UDC University of Concepción UDEC University District Education Commitee UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Program UNEP United Nations Environment Program UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UNOOSA United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs UNTS UN Treaty Series VCL Vegetation Canopy Lidar Mission VEG Vegetation VIRS Visible Infrared Scanner VISSR Visible and IR VOS Volunteer Observation Ships WAC Wide Arial Coverage WAN Wide Area Network WCRP World Climate Research Program WHO World Health Organization WMO World Meteorological Organization WOCE World Ocean Circulation Experiment XBT Expendable BathyThermograph
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GLOSSARY
A Aerosol - a scientific term referring to small particles of a liquid or solid suspended in gas. Anomaly - the difference between the value of a variable at a given location and its long-term average at that location. Higher variability translates into a greater anomaly. Anthropogenic - of, relating to, or resulting from the influence of human beings on nature. Atmospheric pressure - the pressure exerted by the atmosphere because of the force of gravity acting on the overlying column of air. B Barometer - an instrument for measuring atmospheric pressure. Bathymetry - a measurement of water body depths, in particular for the analysis of ocean floor surveys. Bathythermograph - an instrument used to measure sea temperature profile data (temperature as a function of depth). C Circulation - the flow or motion of a fluid. Climate - the statistical collection of weather conditions over a specified period of time (usually long-term), and over a specific region. Measurements typically include temperature, wind velocity, and precipitation. Climatology - a quantitative description of climate showing the characteristic values of climate variables over a region. Chlorophyll - any of a group of green pigments found in photosynthetic organisms. Chlorophyll is produced by phytoplankton, and forms the nutrient base of the ocean ecosystem. Coastal upwelling - the movement of strong, wind-driven currents along the Pacific Coast, which are deflected westward by the Coriolis force due to the earth's rotation. The “upwelled” water that comes up from below the surface to replace the surface water moving away from the coast. The upwelled water is often cold and rich in nutrients. Coherence - spatial and temporal consistency (e.g. wave properties).
184 • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution
Cold event - an event where the SSTs become anomalously colder compared to the long-term average for the central and eastern equatorial region. (It is the opposite of a warm event in that region). It has been referred to in the past as anti-El Niño and, more recently, as La Niña. Cold tongue - a band of unusually cold surface waters about 1,000 km wide, extending westward from the South American coast along the equator into the central Pacific. The Galapagos Islands lie within the cold tongue. Constellation - a number of satellites (more than one) operating for the same application (e.g. to provide global coverage). Convection - the circulatory motion that occurs in a fluid or gas at a non-uniform temperature, owing to the variation of its density and the action of gravity. Coriolis force - the effect of the earth's rotation tending to turn the direction of motion of any object or fluid toward the right in the Northern Hemisphere and the left in the Southern Hemisphere. Coupled model (or coupled atmosphere-ocean model) - a numerical model which simulates both atmospheric and oceanic motions and temperatures, and takes into account the effects of each component on the other. Cumulonimbus - a cloud type that is dense and vertically developed, and is usually associated with heavy rain. D Dengue fever - an acute infectious disease caused by an arbovirus, transmitted by the Aedes mosquito, and characterized by headache, severe joint pain, and a rash. Dew Point - the temperature at which a certain amount of air must be cooled in order for saturation to occur (a cloud or fog to form; the drier the air the lower the dew point and the more air is needed to be cooled for a cloud or fog to form. Differential buoyancy - a change in the buoyancy capability of a float. Doppler effect (or Doppler shift) - The alteration in frequency of a wave of radiation caused by relative motion between the observer and the source of radiation. Drifting buoy - a buoy type that is not anchored, but migrating with the flow of currents. Dropsonde - a sounding device dropped from aircrafts. Drought - a period of dryness that causes extensive damage to crops or prevents their successful growth. Dynamic pressure - the pressure applied to an object due to its movement through a medium. E Early Warning System - a complex system consisting of a warning subsystem, in which hazards are monitored and forecasted, a risk information subsystem, which can enable disaster management authorities to generate risk scenarios, a preparedness system, in
Summer Session Program 2000 ISU • ISU • 185 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution which disaster preparedness strategies are developed that indicate actions required to reduce the loss and damage expected from an impending hazard event and a communication subsystem, which allows the communication of timely information on impending hazard events, potential risk scenarios and preparedness strategies to vulnerable groups, so that they may take appropriate mitigation measures. Easterlies - the east to west surface winds that usually extend nearly all the way across the equatorial Pacific from the Galapagos Islands to Indonesia. Ecosystem - a community of organisms and their environment. Eddy noise region - the region near the surface of the water where the current is dominated by noisy effects like wind, and is not representative of the main water current. El Niño - a seasonal to inter-annual fluctuation of ocean and atmospheric currents in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which can alter rainfall and wind patterns, and thus, the occurrence of droughts and floods. ENSO - the acronym for El Niño and the Southern Oscillation, used to describe the linkage between the two phenomena. Equatorial Wave - Equatorial waves often occur as a result of a sudden change in trade winds, occurring at the start of an El Niño event over the Pacific Ocean. The resulting equatorial waves are known as Kelvin and Yannai (mixed Rossby-gravity waves). They are fast moving waves with a maximum velocity of 250 km/day. They transport energy eastwards towards the Pacific coast, with the amount of the transported energy proportional to the square of the wave height. Electromagnetic band - a specific portion of the electromagnetic spectrum (e.g. visible band). Electromagnetic spectrum - the entire frequency range of electromagnetic waves. Equinox - the time of year when the sun crosses the Equator and day and night are of equal length. This occurs twice a year, around March 21st an September 23rd. Euphotic zone - the zone where upper layers of a body of water are such that sufficient light penetrates to permit growth of sub-surface green plants. Expert System (or Knowledge Based System) - Computer program that uses artificial intelligence techniques to make decisions or recommendations or predict outcomes based on an analysis of data. An expert system typically has two parts - a very large database that contains specified knowledge in a given area and a set of rules (called the knowledge base) for reaching conclusions. Eyewall - with respect to a severe tropical cyclone, the "eye" is a roughly circular area of comparatively light winds and fair weather found at its center. The eye is surrounded by the eyewall, the roughly circular area of deep convection, which is the area of highest surface winds in the tropical cyclone. F Float - a buoy type with sinking capabilities.
186 • ISU • Summer Session Program 2000 ENSO: A Global Challenge and Keys to a Solution
Flood - any relatively high water flow that exceeds the natural or artificial banks in any portion of a river, stream or coastal area. Food web - the co-dependence for food of organisms upon one another, beginning with plants and ending with the largest carnivores. G General Circulation Model (GCM) - a global, three-dimensional computer model of the climate system that can be used to simulate human-induced climate change. GCMs are highly complex and represent the effects of such factors as reflective and absorptive properties of atmospheric water vapor, greenhouse gas concentrations, clouds, annual and daily solar heating, ocean temperatures and ice boundaries. The most recent GCMs include global representations of the atmosphere, oceans, and land surface. Geographic Information System (GIS) - an organized collection of computer hardware, software, and geographic data, designed to capture, store, update, manipulate, analyze, and display spatial information. GIS allows users to perform very complex and time- consuming spatial analyses, which may be used to support decision-making procedures. Geopotential height - the approximation of the actual height of a pressure surface above mean sea-level. Geostationary orbit - a circular orbit with an altitude of 35.900 km above the Earth's Equator, on which the position of the satellite orbit stays fixed relative to the Earth. Gravity wave - a wave whose propagation is controlled by gravity (as opposed to capillary waves). All waves longer than approximately 2 cm such as surface chop, sea, swell, tsunamis, and tides are gravity waves. H Hadley circulation - a large-scale meridional circulation in the Earth’s atmosphere, characterized by rising air over equatorial regions, which descends in the subtropics. Hazard - any phenomenon, material or structure that has the potential to cause disruption or damage to people, their property or their environment. Holocene - the epoch in geologic time after the Pleistocene epoch, approximately 10,000 years ago. Humboldt current - an ocean current that pulls colder water from higher latitudes to lower latitudes along the coast of South America. Hyperspectral image - a two-dimensional grid of image data, in which fifteen or more (up to 300) discrete bands of the electromagnetic spectrum are used. I Infrared - Electromagnetic radiation lying in the wavelength interval from 0.7 to 1000 mm.
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Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) - a region where the trade winds of the two hemispheres meet. An area of enhanced rainfall results from air being forced upward where it cools and water vapor condenses. J Jet stream - strong winds concentrated within a narrow zone in the atmosphere. Often used in reference to the axis of maximum mid-latitude westerlies located in the high troposphere. Jetty - breakwater or barrier built to protect the coast line. K Kelvin wave - an equatorial wave, which travels in the ocean along the region of the highest temperature and density gradient called the thermocline. The Kelvin waves have a wavelength of some 1000km and their highest amplitude at the equator. Kelvin waves are trapped within latitudes of 5ºNorth and 5º South. If the equatorial Kelvin wave hits the Pacific coast it splits up in a northward and southward moving coastal wave. It has been found that these waves can increase the sea height between 10cm to 40 cm above normal according to the amount of the transported energy. L Landslide - an abrupt, short-lived geomorphic events corresponding to the rapid downward motion of soil and rock materials on sloping terrain. La Niña - Spanish for "the girl". A term used to refer to the periodic cooling of Pacific Ocean waters (cold event). This phenomenon has also been called El Viejo, meaning "the old man" (the opposite of El Niño). Leptospirosis - any disease of humans and domestic animals that is caused by infection by any of the genus Leptospira; slender aerobic spirochaetes that are free- living or parasitic in mammals. Low Earth orbit - an orbit with an altitude less than 1500 km. M Meridional - meaning along meridians (from North to South or vice versa). Miocene - the epoch in geologic time approximately 24 million years ago. Mixed Rossby-gravity - see Yannai wave. Monsoons - seasonal winds caused primarily by greater annual variation in air temperature over large land surfaces compared to ocean surfaces. Moored buoy - a buoy type anchored on the bottom of the ocean. Mudslide - see Landslide. Multispectral image - a two-dimensional grid of image data, taken in two or more (up to five) bands of the electromagnetic spectrum.
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P Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) - a low frequency oscillation similar to ENSO, which may be the cause of abnormally warm conditions in 1982-83 and 1997-98. Panchromatic image - a two-dimensional grid of image data, taken in all wavelengths of the electromagnetic spectrum within the visible spectrum, though not uniformly. Permafrost - a permanently frozen soil layer below the surface of tundra regions. Phytoplankton - a flora of freely floating organisms that drift freely with water currents. Similar to land vegetation, phytoplankton uses carbon dioxide, releases oxygen, and converts minerals to a form animals can use. Pixel - (“picture element”) the smallest area unit of an image, which is generated by a single digital measurement. Polar Orbit - an orbit that passes close to the poles of the Earth. Primary productivity - the rate of production of inorganic matter to organic matter, by photosynthesis. Prograde - having a counterclockwise direction of rotation, or revolution as viewed from the north pole of the sky or a planet. Pyranometer - an instrument to measure direct solar and diffused sky radiation. Pyrgeometers - an instrument to measure thermal (Infrared) emissions. R Radiometer - an instrument used for the quantitative measurement of the intensity of electromagnetic radiation in a certain part of the spectrum. Radiometric resolution - the expected spread of variation in each estimate of scene reflectivity as observed in an image. Smaller radiometric resolution is "better". Radiometric resolution may be improved using averaging techniques, but at the cost of spatial resolution. Radiosonde - a balloon carrying instruments for measuring conditions in the upper atmosphere. Raw materials - crude or processed material that can be converted by manufacture, processing, or combination into a new and useful product. Real-time observing system - a data-gathering instrument that provides accurate data, which is available to the user very soon after it is collected. Data can be used as input to models used in weather and climate prediction. Remote sensing - a group of techniques for collecting image or other forms of data about an object from measurements made at a distance from the object, and the processing and analysis of the data. Repeat cycle - the time interval between successive satellite observations of the same area of the Earth surface.
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Retrograde - a) having a direction of clockwise rotation or revolution that is as viewed from the north pole of the sky or a planet; b) moving, occurring, or performed in a backward direction or opposite to the usual direction. Rossby Waves - in meteorology, large symmetrical undulation that develops in a jet stream's axis of flow and separates cold, polar air from warm, tropical air. These waves are named for Carl-Gustaf Arvid Rossby, who first identified them and explained their movement. S Scatterometer - a radar device used to measure the variation of radar scattering coefficient at a specified configuration of incidence angles, wavelengths, and wave polarization orientations. The backscattering coefficient describes the target backscattering characteristics and varies as a function of surface roughness, moisture content, and dielectric properties. The surface backscattering coefficient may also be used to derive the surface wind vector. Scatterometry - the science and techniques involved in using scatterometers. Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) - an optical instrument carried aboard a satellite that measures the greenness of the surface water of the ocean, which provides an indication of its chlorophyll content. Sensor - an instrument, usually consisting of optics, detectors, and electronics that senses and measures radiation. Spatial distribution - the size of the area on the terrain that is covered by the instantaneous field of view of a detector. Spatial resolution - the minimum distance at which two adjacent targets are detected as individually separated. Spectral band - an interval in the electromagnetic spectrum defined by a minimum and maximum wavelength or frequency. Shantytown - a very poor town or section of a town. Solstice - the time of the sun's passing a solstice which occurs about June 22 to begin summer in the northern hemisphere and about December 22 to begin winter in the northern hemisphere. Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) - an index developed to monitor the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using the difference between sea level pressures at Tahiti and Darwin (Australia). Large negative values of the SOI indicate a warm event, and large positive values indicate a cold event (also referred to as La Niña). Spectral resolution - the ability of a sensing system to resolve or differentiate electromagnetic radiations of different frequencies. Stationary waves - waves (flow patterns with periodicity in time and/or space) that are fixed relative to Earth. Storm track - the path followed by the center of an area of atmospheric low pressure. In many cases, multiple storms follow the same storm track.
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Sun-synchronous orbit - an earth satellite orbit in which the orbital plane is near polar and the altitude is such that a satellite will always pass over a specific place on earth at the same local sun time and at fixed time intervals (e.g. once every 18 days). Swath width - Area covered by the sensor of an earth observation satellite. T Teleconnections - the atmospheric interactions between widely separated regions (Glantz, 1994). Many researchers are studying the relationships between ENSO (and La Niña) events and weather anomalies around the globe to determine whether links exist. Understanding these teleconnections can help in forecasting droughts, floods, and tropical storms (hurricanes). Temperature Gradient - spatial variation of temperature. Temporal resolution - The frequency of temporal coverage of a sensor/platform system. Theoretical prediction models - computer programs designed to use equations to represent processes that occur in nature. Thermocline - a transition layer of water in the ocean, with a steeper vertical temperature gradient than found in the layers of ocean above and below. The permanent thermocline separates the warm mixed surface layer of the ocean from the cold deep ocean water. Thermohaline circulation - large-scale vertical circulation in the oceans caused by surface density changes. Trophic level - position in the food chain, determined by the number of energy transfer steps to that level. U Upwelling - the vertical motion of water in the ocean by which sub-surface water of lower temperature and greater density moves toward the surface of the ocean. Upwelling occurs most commonly along the western coastlines of continents, but may occur anywhere in the ocean. This is often a source of cold, nutrient-rich water, and it is important to fisheries. (See Coastal upwelling). W Walker circulation - an atmospheric circulation over the Pacific Ocean where air rises over the west pacific, around Indonesia (west winds in the upper troposphere), sinking air off the west coast of South America (east winds near the surface). Warm event - refers to the anomalous warming of SSTs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. This term is being used to avoid confusion over the use of other terms like ENSO and El Niño. A relative cooling in the western equatorial Pacific accompanies a warming in the regions mentioned.
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Weather - the short-term state of the atmosphere with respect to heat or cold, wetness or dryness, calm or storm, clearness or cloudiness. Westerlies - west to east winds occurring in mid-latitudes in both hemispheres. Wet bulb temperature - a mercury-in-glass thermometer, whose bulb is wrapped in muslin and is kept wet, will indicate a lower temperature than the standard one, because of water evaporating from the muslin. It is thus possible to evaluate the atmosphere humidity. The rate of evaporation from the wet-bulb thermometer depends indeed on the humidity of the air. Y Yannai wave (or mixed Rossby-gravity) - An equatorial wave that travels in the ocean along the region of the biggest temperature and density gradient called the thermocline. The Yannai waves have a wavelength of some 100km and the highest amplitude is at latitudes 2º to 3º off the equator. If the Yannai wave hits the Pacific coast it propagates backward parallel to the equator into the Pacific. Z Zonal - along lines of constant latitude (from east to west or vice versa). Zooplankton - small floating or weakly swimming organisms that drift with water currents and make up the planktonic food supply upon which almost all oceanic organisms are ultimately dependent.
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