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CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, NORTHRIDGE FORECASTING CALIFORNIA THUNDERSTORMS a Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Re
CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, NORTHRIDGE FORECASTING CALIFORNIA THUNDERSTORMS A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements For the degree of Master of Arts in Geography By Ilya Neyman May 2013 The thesis of Ilya Neyman is approved: _______________________ _________________ Dr. Steve LaDochy Date _______________________ _________________ Dr. Ron Davidson Date _______________________ _________________ Dr. James Hayes, Chair Date California State University, Northridge ii TABLE OF CONTENTS SIGNATURE PAGE ii ABSTRACT iv INTRODUCTION 1 THESIS STATEMENT 12 IMPORTANT TERMS AND DEFINITIONS 13 LITERATURE REVIEW 17 APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY 24 TRADITIONALLY RECOGNIZED TORNADIC PARAMETERS 28 CASE STUDY 1: SEPTEMBER 10, 2011 33 CASE STUDY 2: JULY 29, 2003 48 CASE STUDY 3: JANUARY 19, 2010 62 CASE STUDY 4: MAY 22, 2008 91 CONCLUSIONS 111 REFERENCES 116 iii ABSTRACT FORECASTING CALIFORNIA THUNDERSTORMS By Ilya Neyman Master of Arts in Geography Thunderstorms are a significant forecasting concern for southern California. Even though convection across this region is less frequent than in many other parts of the country significant thunderstorm events and occasional severe weather does occur. It has been found that a further challenge in convective forecasting across southern California is due to the variety of sub-regions that exist including coastal plains, inland valleys, mountains and deserts, each of which is associated with different weather conditions and sometimes drastically different convective parameters. In this paper four recent thunderstorm case studies were conducted, with each one representative of a different category of seasonal and synoptic patterns that are known to affect southern California. In addition to supporting points made in prior literature there were numerous new and unique findings that were discovered during the scope of this research and these are discussed as they are investigated in their respective case study as applicable. -
MSE3 Ch14 Thunderstorms
Chapter 14 Copyright © 2011, 2015 by Roland Stull. Meteorology for Scientists and Engineers, 3rd Ed. thunderstorms Contents Thunderstorms are among the most violent and difficult-to-predict weath- Thunderstorm Characteristics 481 er elements. Yet, thunderstorms can be Appearance 482 14 studied. They can be probed with radar and air- Clouds Associated with Thunderstorms 482 craft, and simulated in a laboratory or by computer. Cells & Evolution 484 They form in the air, and must obey the laws of fluid Thunderstorm Types & Organization 486 mechanics and thermodynamics. Basic Storms 486 Thunderstorms are also beautiful and majestic. Mesoscale Convective Systems 488 Supercell Thunderstorms 492 In thunderstorms, aesthetics and science merge, making them fascinating to study and chase. Thunderstorm Formation 496 Convective Conditions 496 Thunderstorm characteristics, formation, and Key Altitudes 496 forecasting are covered in this chapter. The next chapter covers thunderstorm hazards including High Humidity in the ABL 499 hail, gust fronts, lightning, and tornadoes. Instability, CAPE & Updrafts 503 CAPE 503 Updraft Velocity 508 Wind Shear in the Environment 509 Hodograph Basics 510 thunderstorm CharaCteristiCs Using Hodographs 514 Shear Across a Single Layer 514 Thunderstorms are convective clouds Mean Wind Shear Vector 514 with large vertical extent, often with tops near the Total Shear Magnitude 515 tropopause and bases near the top of the boundary Mean Environmental Wind (Normal Storm Mo- layer. Their official name is cumulonimbus (see tion) 516 the Clouds Chapter), for which the abbreviation is Supercell Storm Motion 518 Bulk Richardson Number 521 Cb. On weather maps the symbol represents thunderstorms, with a dot •, asterisk , or triangle Triggering vs. Convective Inhibition 522 * ∆ drawn just above the top of the symbol to indicate Convective Inhibition (CIN) 523 Trigger Mechanisms 525 rain, snow, or hail, respectively. -
Observational Estimates of Detrainment and Entrainment in Non-Precipitating Shallow Cumulus
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 21–33, 2016 www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/21/2016/ doi:10.5194/acp-16-21-2016 © Author(s) 2016. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Observational estimates of detrainment and entrainment in non-precipitating shallow cumulus M. S. Norgren1, J. D. Small2, H. H. Jonsson3, and P. Y. Chuang4 1Dept. of Physics, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA 2Dept. of Meteorology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, USA 3Center for Interdisciplinary Remotely-Piloted Aircraft Studies, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, USA 4Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA Correspondence to: P. Y. Chuang ([email protected]) Received: 4 July 2014 – Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 26 August 2014 Revised: 27 November 2015 – Accepted: 3 December 2015 – Published: 14 January 2016 Abstract. Vertical transport associated with cumulus clouds method could be readily used with data from other previous is important to the redistribution of gases, particles, and en- aircraft campaigns to expand our understanding of detrain- ergy, with subsequent consequences for many aspects of the ment for a variety of cloud systems. climate system. Previous studies have suggested that detrain- ment from clouds can be comparable to the updraft mass flux, and thus represents an important contribution to ver- 1 Introduction tical transport. In this study, we describe a new method to deduce the amounts of gross detrainment and entrainment One of the important ways cumulus clouds affect the at- experienced by non-precipitating cumulus clouds using air- mosphere is through vertical transport. The redistribution craft observations. -
Dicionarioct.Pdf
McGraw-Hill Dictionary of Earth Science Second Edition McGraw-Hill New York Chicago San Francisco Lisbon London Madrid Mexico City Milan New Delhi San Juan Seoul Singapore Sydney Toronto Copyright © 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Manufactured in the United States of America. Except as permitted under the United States Copyright Act of 1976, no part of this publication may be repro- duced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the publisher. 0-07-141798-2 The material in this eBook also appears in the print version of this title: 0-07-141045-7 All trademarks are trademarks of their respective owners. Rather than put a trademark symbol after every occurrence of a trademarked name, we use names in an editorial fashion only, and to the benefit of the trademark owner, with no intention of infringement of the trademark. Where such designations appear in this book, they have been printed with initial caps. McGraw-Hill eBooks are available at special quantity discounts to use as premiums and sales promotions, or for use in corporate training programs. For more information, please contact George Hoare, Special Sales, at [email protected] or (212) 904-4069. TERMS OF USE This is a copyrighted work and The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. (“McGraw- Hill”) and its licensors reserve all rights in and to the work. Use of this work is subject to these terms. Except as permitted under the Copyright Act of 1976 and the right to store and retrieve one copy of the work, you may not decom- pile, disassemble, reverse engineer, reproduce, modify, create derivative works based upon, transmit, distribute, disseminate, sell, publish or sublicense the work or any part of it without McGraw-Hill’s prior consent. -
Metar Abbreviations Metar/Taf List of Abbreviations and Acronyms
METAR ABBREVIATIONS http://www.alaska.faa.gov/fai/afss/metar%20taf/metcont.htm METAR/TAF LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS $ maintenance check indicator - light intensity indicator that visual range data follows; separator between + heavy intensity / temperature and dew point data. ACFT ACC altocumulus castellanus aircraft mishap MSHP ACSL altocumulus standing lenticular cloud AO1 automated station without precipitation discriminator AO2 automated station with precipitation discriminator ALP airport location point APCH approach APRNT apparent APRX approximately ATCT airport traffic control tower AUTO fully automated report B began BC patches BKN broken BL blowing BR mist C center (with reference to runway designation) CA cloud-air lightning CB cumulonimbus cloud CBMAM cumulonimbus mammatus cloud CC cloud-cloud lightning CCSL cirrocumulus standing lenticular cloud cd candela CG cloud-ground lightning CHI cloud-height indicator CHINO sky condition at secondary location not available CIG ceiling CLR clear CONS continuous COR correction to a previously disseminated observation DOC Department of Commerce DOD Department of Defense DOT Department of Transportation DR low drifting DS duststorm DSIPTG dissipating DSNT distant DU widespread dust DVR dispatch visual range DZ drizzle E east, ended, estimated ceiling (SAO) FAA Federal Aviation Administration FC funnel cloud FEW few clouds FG fog FIBI filed but impracticable to transmit FIRST first observation after a break in coverage at manual station Federal Meteorological Handbook No.1, Surface -
Clouds and Precipitation
Chapter 9 CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION Fire weather is usually fair weather. Clouds, fog, and precipitation do not predominate during the fire season. The appearance of clouds during the fire season may have good portent or bad. Overcast skies shade the surface and thus temper forest flammability. This is good from the wildfire standpoint, but may preclude the use of prescribed fire for useful purposes. Some clouds develop into full-blown thunderstorms with fire-starting potential and often disastrous effects on fire behavior. The amount of precipitation and its seasonal distribution are important factors in controlling the beginning, ending, and severity of local fire seasons. Prolonged periods with lack of clouds and precipitation set the stage for severe burning conditions by increasing the availability of dead fuel and depleting soil moisture necessary for the normal physiological functions of living plants. Severe burning conditions are not erased easily. Extremely dry forest fuels may undergo superficial moistening by rain in the forenoon, but may dry out quickly and become flammable again during the afternoon. 144 CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION Clouds consist of minute water droplets, ice crystals, or a mixture of the two in sufficient quantities to make the mass discernible. Some clouds are pretty, others are dull, and some are foreboding. But we need to look beyond these aesthetic qualities. Clouds are visible evidence of atmospheric moisture and atmospheric motion. Those that indicate instability may serve as a warning to the fire-control man. Some produce precipitation and become an ally to the firefighter. We must look into the processes by which clouds are formed and precipitation is produced in order to understand the meaning and portent of clouds as they relate to fire weather. -
PHAK Chapter 12 Weather Theory
Chapter 12 Weather Theory Introduction Weather is an important factor that influences aircraft performance and flying safety. It is the state of the atmosphere at a given time and place with respect to variables, such as temperature (heat or cold), moisture (wetness or dryness), wind velocity (calm or storm), visibility (clearness or cloudiness), and barometric pressure (high or low). The term “weather” can also apply to adverse or destructive atmospheric conditions, such as high winds. This chapter explains basic weather theory and offers pilots background knowledge of weather principles. It is designed to help them gain a good understanding of how weather affects daily flying activities. Understanding the theories behind weather helps a pilot make sound weather decisions based on the reports and forecasts obtained from a Flight Service Station (FSS) weather specialist and other aviation weather services. Be it a local flight or a long cross-country flight, decisions based on weather can dramatically affect the safety of the flight. 12-1 Atmosphere The atmosphere is a blanket of air made up of a mixture of 1% gases that surrounds the Earth and reaches almost 350 miles from the surface of the Earth. This mixture is in constant motion. If the atmosphere were visible, it might look like 2211%% an ocean with swirls and eddies, rising and falling air, and Oxygen waves that travel for great distances. Life on Earth is supported by the atmosphere, solar energy, 77 and the planet’s magnetic fields. The atmosphere absorbs 88%% energy from the sun, recycles water and other chemicals, and Nitrogen works with the electrical and magnetic forces to provide a moderate climate. -
The Ten Different Types of Clouds
THE COMPLETE GUIDE TO THE TEN DIFFERENT TYPES OF CLOUDS AND HOW TO IDENTIFY THEM Dedicated to those who are passionately curious, keep their heads in the clouds, and keep their eyes on the skies. And to Luke Howard, the father of cloud classification. 4 Infographic 5 Introduction 12 Cirrus 18 Cirrocumulus 25 Cirrostratus 31 Altocumulus 38 Altostratus 45 Nimbostratus TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE 51 Cumulonimbus 57 Cumulus 64 Stratus 71 Stratocumulus 79 Our Mission 80 Extras Cloud Types: An Infographic 4 An Introduction to the 10 Different An Introduction to the 10 Different Types of Clouds Types of Clouds ⛅ Clouds are the equivalent of an ever-evolving painting in the sky. They have the ability to make for magnificent sunrises and spectacular sunsets. We’re surrounded by clouds almost every day of our lives. Let’s take the time and learn a little bit more about them! The following information is presented to you as a comprehensive guide to the ten different types of clouds and how to idenify them. Let’s just say it’s an instruction manual to the sky. Here you’ll learn about the ten different cloud types: their characteristics, how they differentiate from the other cloud types, and much more. So three cheers to you for starting on your cloud identification journey. Happy cloudspotting, friends! The Three High Level Clouds Cirrus (Ci) Cirrocumulus (Cc) Cirrostratus (Cs) High, wispy streaks High-altitude cloudlets Pale, veil-like layer High-altitude, thin, and wispy cloud High-altitude, thin, and wispy cloud streaks made of ice crystals streaks -
MET 200 Lecture 7 Cloud Forms Colorado's “Biblical”
MET 200 Lecture 7 Cloud Forms Cloud forms and what they tell us. 1 2 Colorado’s “biblical” flood Colorado’s “biblical” flood 3 4 230.6 mm (9.08 in) Colorado’s “biblical” flood Boulder Co. Flood Estimating the return interval of the Boulder Flood 5 6 Boulder Co. Flood Boulder Co. Flood Rainfall amounts for the seven days ending at noon MDT on Friday, September 13, ranged from 5 to 10-plus inches across large swaths of the Colorado Front Range, with similar amounts eastward into northwest Kansas. 7 8 Boulder Co. Flood Boulder Co. Flood • Boulder’s previous record for wettest calendar day—4.80” (July 31, 1919)—was shattered. • The single day of rain on Thursday was also nearly twice as much as any other entire September has produced (5.50”, in 1940). • The full week’s rainfall easily topped the 9.59” observed in May 1995, Boulder’s wettest month up to now. Between 00Z Thursday 9/12 (6 PM Mountain Daylight Time on • This week’s precipitation also exceeded the 12.96” that fell in Boulder Wednesday) and 00Z Friday 9/13, a total of 9.08” was measured at the during this entire year up to September 8. It put the city within ofcial Boulder site. From 6 PM Monday 9/9 through 6 PM Friday 9/13, striking distance of wettest year on record (29.93”, set in 1995), with the grand total was a whopping 14.71”. only about 2” more needed by December 31 to break that mark. 9 10 Cloud Stories Previous Lecture: Cloud Formation Clouds can tell us many things about our atmospheric environment including – Atmospheric stability – Cloud microphysics, e.g., ice vs liquid – Ice can survive a long time outside of a cloud boundary making the cloud edges diffuse. -
Condensation: Dew, Fog and Clouds •What Is Td? AT350 •What Is the Sat
•T=30 C •Water vapor pressure=12mb Condensation: Dew, Fog and Clouds •What is Td? AT350 •What is the sat. water vapor pressure? •What is the relative humidity? •T=30 C POLAR AIR •Water vapor pressure=12mb •T=-2 C •Td=-2 C •What is Td? •What is the sat. water vapor •What is water vapor pressure? pressure? •What is sat. water vapor •What is the relative humidity? pressure? ~12/42~29% •What is the relative humidity? DESERT AIR DESERT AIR •T=35 C •T=35 C •Td= 5 C •Td= 5 C •What is water vapor pressure? •What is water vapor pressure? •What is sat. water vapor •What is sat. water vapor pressure? pressure? •What is the relative humidity? •What is the relative humidity? ~9/56~16% •If air is saturated at T=30 C •If air is saturated at T=30 C and warms to 35 C, what is the and warms to 35 C, what is the relative humidity? relative humidity? ~75% •If air is saturated at T=20 C •If air is saturated at T=20 C and warms to 35 C, what is the and warms to 35 C, what is the relative humidity? relative humidity? ~43% •If air is saturated at T=-20 C •If air is saturated at T=-20 C and warms to 35 C, what is the and warms to 35 C, what is the relative humidity? relative humidity? ~2% Condensation Dew • Surfaces cool strongly at • Condensation is the phase transformation of night by radiative cooling water vapor to liquid water – Strongest on clear, calm nights • Water does not easily condense without a • The dew point is the surface present temperature at which the air is saturated with water – Vegetation, soil, buildings provide surface for vapor dew and -
The Kiwi Kids Cloud Identification Guide
Droplets The Kiwi Kids Cloud Identification Guide Written by Paula McKean Droplets The Kiwi Kids Cloud Identification Guide ISBN 1-877264-27-X Paula McKean MEd Hons (Science Ed), BEd, DipTchg 2009 © Crown Copyright 2009 Contents 1. Cloud Classification 2. How Clouds are formed 3. The Water Cycle 4. Cumulus Altitudes 5. Stratus Altitudes 6. Precipitating Cloud Altitudes 7. Cirrus Cloud Altitudes 8. Cumulus 10. Altocumulus 12. Cirrocumulus 14. Stratus 16. Stratocumulus 18. Altostratus 20. Cirrostratus 22. Nimbostratus 24. Cumulus Congestus 26. Cumulonimbus 28. Cirrus 30. Contrails 32. References 33. Acknowledgements Cloud Classification Since Luke Howard developed the first cloud classification system in 1802, clouds have been classified according to the altitude of the cloud base and the shape of the cloud. There are three main categories: Low level- Clouds that form below 2000 m: Cumulus, Stratocumulus, Stratus (including Fog, Haze and Mist), Nimbostratus and Cumulonimbus. Mid level - Clouds that form between 2000 m and 7000 m: Altocumulus and Altostratus. High level - Clouds that form above 5000 m: Cirrus, Cirrocumulus, Cirrostratus and Contrails. In this guide cloud types have been organised by their characteristics so it is easier to distinguish between clouds that appear to be similar and to help determine the cloud type when the altitude can’t be determined. Clouds have been grouped into four categories: • Cumulus (heaped, puffy appearing clouds). • Stratus (flat clouds that extend over large sections of sky). • Precipitating (clouds that can produce rain, hail or snow). • Cirrus (wispy high altitude clouds). By using a combination of the altitude system and characteristic based system used in this guide, cloud identification will be easier and more accurate. -
MSE3 Ch06 Clouds
chapter 6 Copyright © 2011, 2015 by Roland Stull. Meteorology for Scientists and Engineers, 3rd Ed. clouds contents Clouds have immense beauty and variety. They show weather patterns on a global Processes Causing Saturation 159 scale, as viewed by satellites. Yet they are Cooling and Moisturizing 159 6 made of tiny droplets that fall gently through the Mixing 160 air. Clouds can have richly complex fractal shapes, Cloud Identification & Development 161 and a wide distribution of sizes. Clouds are named Cumuliform 161 according to an international cloud classification Stratiform 162 scheme. Stratocumulus 164 Clouds form when air becomes saturated. Satu- Others 164 ration can occur by adding water, by cooling, or by Clouds in unstable air aloft 164 mixing; hence, Lagrangian water and heat budgets Clouds associated with mountains 165 Clouds due to surface-induced turbulence 165 are useful. The buoyancy of the cloudy air and the Anthropogenic Clouds 166 static stability of the environment determine the Cloud Organization 167 vertical extent of the cloud. Fogs are clouds that touch the ground. Their lo- Cloud Classification 168 cation in the atmospheric boundary layer means that Genera 168 Species 168 turbulent transport of heat and moisture from the Varieties 169 underlying surface affects their formation, growth, Supplementary Features 169 and dissipation. Accessory Clouds 169 Sky Cover (Cloud Amount) 170 Cloud Sizes 170 Fractal Cloud Shapes 171 processes causing saturation Fractal Dimension 171 Measuring Fractal Dimension 172 Clouds are saturated portions of the atmosphere Fog 173 where small water droplets or ice crystals have fall Types 173 velocities so slow that they appear visibly suspend- Idealized Fog Models 173 ed in the air.