sign in sign up
<<
Home , Bruce Riedel, NATO

may 2009 . Vol 2 . Issue 5

Comparing the U.S. and country had been used as a base for violently opposed to the new occupation the 9/11 attacks on the . and its atheist ideology. Soviet Experiences in The U.S. goal, endorsed by the United Nations and the North Atlantic In contrast, polls show most Afghans Organization (NATO), was self-defense have supported the coalition forces By against a government that had allowed that overthrew the , although its territory to be used for an act of that support is now dwindling as the a country rarely fights the same war against another state. From the coalition has failed to provide law and twice in one generation, especially from beginning, the United States has had no order and reconstruction.4 The Taliban opposite sides. Yet that in many ways ambition to dominate or subjugate the are not widely popular either; support describes the U.S. role in Afghanistan Afghan people, or to stay in Afghanistan for the Taliban is mostly restricted today. In the , the Central once the threat posed by al-Qa`ida to the Pashtun belt in southern and Intelligence Agency, working from a and the Afghan Taliban is defeated. eastern Afghanistan. It has virtually no safe haven in , engineered the President reiterated this appeal to the 60% of Afghans who are largest covert operation in its history to fact in his speech outlining the new U.S. not Pashtun. Therefore, the Soviets’ help defeat the Soviet 40th Red Army in policy for Afghanistan and Pakistan on most difficult battlespace—the famous Afghanistan.1 Today, the United States , 2009.2 Panjshir Valley, home of the legendary is fighting a Taliban-led in Ahmad Shah Massoud (the Lion of the Afghanistan that operates from a safe The Soviet invasion in 1979 was a Panjshir)—is today quiet and devoid haven in Pakistan. Many suggest that different matter. It is now understood of Taliban because it is an exclusively the outcome will be the same for the that Moscow blundered into Afghanistan Tajik area. United States as it was for the Soviet with little appreciation of the difficulties Union—ultimate defeat at the hands of it would face.3 Its goal was to shore up In short, while the Soviets faced a the insurgency. Pakistan’s role as a safe a communist regime that was on the national uprising, the U.S.-led coalition haven is remarkably consistent in both edge of collapse in the face of a national faces a minority insurgency that is conflicts, but focusing exclusively on uprising. The Soviet leadership wanted segregated from much of the country. that similarity misses the fundamental an Afghanistan that would be similar Moscow’s task was much more difficult differences between the two . This to other Soviet satellite states and than the one facing NATO today. article will address those differences, under virtual Soviet imperial rule with and will also assess how Pakistan’s only the façade of independence. The Tactics and Support role is impacting the United States’ Soviets may also have had ambitions The Soviets responded to Afghan possibilities for success today. to use Afghanistan as a base to project opposition with a ferocity and brutality authority further south. that made the situation even worse. At Goals and Objectives least 1.5 million Afghans were killed, The first and perhaps most critical The Soviet invasion and the attempt another five million or so fled the difference between the two wars is to impose on a rural and country to Iran and Pakistan (one out over goals and objectives. The United largely illiterate Islamic country with of three Afghans), and millions more States intervened in Afghanistan a history of xenophobia produced the were displaced inside the country. A in 2001 on the side of the Northern predictable result: a mass national country that began the war as one of the to topple the Taliban Islamic uprising. With the exception of small poorest in the world was systematically Emirate of Afghanistan only after the pockets of the urban middle class and impoverished and even emptied of its a few minority —most notably people. The Soviet Air Force carpet 1 The story of the first Afghan war has been told from the Uzbek province of Jowzjan where bombed cities such as Kandahar, where many angles. George Crile’s Charlie Wilson’s War: The a tough local warlord, Abdul Rashid the population fell from 250,000 to 5 Extraordinary Story of how the Wildest Man in Congress Dostum, raised a pro-Soviet — 25,000. Millions of land mines were and a Rogue CIA Agent Changed the History of our Times virtually the entire country was planted all over the country, with no underplays ’s and Bill Casey’s role but records kept of where they had been laid. is full of insights into the U.S. side of the war. 2 In his March 27, 2009 speech, President Obama said: Nothing even approaching this level Gates’ memoirs From the Shadows: The Ultimate Insider’s “We are not in Afghanistan to control that country or of horror is happening in Afghanistan Story of Five Presidents and How they Won the has to dictate its future. We are in Afghanistan to confront today. a more balanced view. Also important is Milt Bearden’s a common enemy that threatens the United States, our two books on the war, The Main Enemy: The Inside Story friends and allies, and the people of Afghanistan and In part because of that brutality, the of the CIA’s Final Showdown with the KGB and The Black Pakistan who have suffered the most at the hands of vio- Soviet invasion was condemned by Tulip: A Novel of the . Bearden was the lent extremists. So I want the American people to under- virtually the entire world except for CIA chief of station in Islamabad at the end of the jihad. stand that we have a clear and focused goal: to disrupt, its client states. The campaign to assist The Soviet side of the war has long been neglected but fi- dismantle, and defeat al Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghani- nally received attention from Gregory Feifer in The Great stan, and to prevent their return to either country in the 4 , “Afghan Public Opinion and the Gamble: The Soviet War in Afghanistan. Most important is future.” See “President Obama’s Speech on Afghanistan Afghan War: Shifts by and Province,” Center for the Pakistani version, written by the ISI of and Pakistan,” U.S. News & World Report, March 27, Strategic and International Studies, April 13, 2009. the battle, Mohammad Yousaf, with Mark Adkin in The 2009. 5 On the cost of the war, see Robert Kaplan, Soldiers of Bear Trap: Afghanistan’s Untold Story in which the CIA is 3 Gregory Feifer, The Great Gamble: The Soviet War in Af- God: With Islamic Warriors in Afghanistan and Pakistan a duplicitous and timid partner for the ISI. ghanistan (New York: HarperCollins, 2009). (New York: Vintage Books, 2001), pp. 184-188, 223. may 2009 . Vol 2 . Issue 5 the Afghan insurgency, the mujahidin, used power, especially its air Even more ironically, Pakistan serves enjoyed the backing of countries around force, to intimidate Pakistan. as the logistical supply line for the world including , the United NATO forces in Afghanistan. More Kingdom, , , Saudi Arabia, Zia insisted that outside support for the than 80% of the supplies U.S. and Iran and others. mujahidin had to flow through Pakistani other coalition forces depend on arrive hands, principally via the Inter- via Pakistan from the port of Karachi. NATO forces in Afghanistan today have Services Intelligence (ISI) Directorate Geography effectively precludes another the support of the and of the Pakistani Army. The ISI sought alternative unless the alliance is willing operate under a UN Security Council exclusive access to the mujahidin. to rely on or Iran to control its mandate. The International Security Outside players had little choice but supply lines. Moreover, the ISI is also Assistance Force (ISAF), created to accept Zia’s rules. Consequently, a key partner in the struggle against al- by the United Nations in 2001, has Pakistan served as the safe haven for Qa`ida. The ISI has helped capture or troops from 41 countries currently in the mujahidin, its logistical supply line kill several senior al-Qa`ida operatives, Afghanistan, including U.S. forces, and its advocate on the world stage. despite declining ISI assistance since NATO contributions, and troops from the early years after 9/11. Without non-NATO states such as , Ironically, today Pakistan again acts as Pakistan’s cooperation, many operations and the . the safe haven for Afghan insurgents against al-Qa`ida would be much more Efforts are underway to get more states, and their logistical supply line. The difficult today. especially in the Muslim world, to send ISI is again the instrument by which troops. Pakistan maintains its links to the Therefore, Pakistan has unusually Afghan Taliban and other extremist strong leverage on both sides of the Much of the hardest fighting in the organizations.7 This should come as war in Afghanistan. President Obama’s current war has been conducted by little surprise since in the the new policy explicitly recognizes the non-American troops. The British in ISI was a critical factor in the creation critical role played by Pakistan and , the in and development of the Taliban; it elevates the importance of working Kandahar and the Dutch and Australians only reluctantly agreed to distance with Pakistan to shut down the safe in Uruzgan have been fighting for the itself from the Taliban after 9/11 under havens in Balochistan and elsewhere last several years in the heartland of enormous U.S. pressure. It is now clear along the Afghan-Pakistan . He the Taliban’s Pashtun belt. They have that the distancing is far from complete. has promised to triple economic aid taken considerable casualties in the As Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of to Pakistan and provide military aid process. Indeed, for much of the last has said, the that is focused on counterinsurgency five years the principal battle against ISI “has been very attached to many of requirements such as helicopters for air the al-Qa`ida enemy that attacked the these extreme organizations and in the mobility in the rugged border region. United States in 2001 has been fought long run they have got to completely cut by American allies, while the United ties with them in order to move in the For a number of reasons, Pakistan States’ primary focus has been on al- right direction.”8 retains links to the Afghan Taliban Qa`ida in . despite the rising incidence of jihadist The key leadership node of the Afghan violence inside Pakistan. Most The Role Played by Pakistan Taliban sanctuary in Pakistan is the important is the army’s calculation If the differences between the American Quetta shura council, named after the that Washington and do not and Russian experiences are significant, capital of Balochistan where the senior have the political will to persevere in there is at least one major similarity: Taliban leadership, probably including Afghanistan. It is assumed by many in the role played by Pakistan. In the Mullah Omar (the Taliban’s leader since Pakistan that American and European 1980s, President Zia ul-Huq agreed its founding), resides.9 Quetta, a city of patience to fight it out in Afghanistan to support the mujahidin insurgency some two million, provides excellent is eroding, an assumption reinforced by despite the enormous risk involved in cover for the Afghan Taliban leadership polls that show support for the conflict provoking the , then the to operate and lead the insurgency. It is steadily declining on both sides of the world’s largest military power. The close to the Afghan border but remote Atlantic. Supporting the Afghan Taliban Soviets responded with an intense from outsiders; few Westerners have is thus a useful hedge in case NATO covert campaign to foment unrest inside access to the area. decides to withdrawal and give up the Pakistan, especially in the border areas struggle. Pakistan would then have a and in the refugee camps. Both the relationship with the Pashtun future of KGB and its Afghan ally, the KHAD, southern and eastern Afghanistan and conducted terrorist attacks to bring Afghanistan’s Untold Story (South Yorkshire, UK: Pen & would have an asset in the struggle for 6 pressure on Zia. Moreover, the Soviets Sword Books, 2002), p. 220. post-NATO Afghanistan. 7 Mark Mazzetti and Eric Schmitt, “Afghan Strikes by 6 One of the most famous such attacks was on a logistics Taliban Get Pakistani Help, U.S. Aides Say,” New York Changing Pakistan’s Calculations supply base the ISI had near Rawalpindi for the muja- Times, March 26, 2009; Bruce Riedel, “Pakistan and Ter- If the United States and its partners in hidin, which was blown up by saboteurs in April 1988. ror: The Eye of the Storm,” The Annals of the American Afghanistan demonstrate their resolve, More than 100 Pakistanis were killed, 1,000 injured Academy of Political and Social Science 618:1 (2008). especially with the additional forces en and 10,000 tons of arms and ammunition destroyed. 8 Mazzetti et al.; Riedel. route to the battlefield this year, the See Mohammad Yousaf and Mark Adkin, The Bear Trap: 9 Ibid. calculation in Pakistan’s military may may 2009 . Vol 2 . Issue 5 change. The alliance needs to make clear to Islamabad that the Taliban will not succeed on the battlefield.

Unfortunately, the politics in Islamabad are working in the wrong direction. The Pakistani Taliban are getting stronger and the political parties are squabbling over power. The army remains preoccupied with . Pakistan must recognize that the existential threat to its freedoms comes from the jihadists. Only when the key players in Pakistan, both in the political parties and in the army, come to that conclusion will change occur. The United States needs to engage intensively to convince them of this reality.

There is no inherent reason why the NATO and U.S. war in Afghanistan must follow the pattern of the Soviet war. The differences between the two outweigh the similarities, especially in what most Afghans want for their country. While pundits may find the cliché that Afghanistan is the graveyard of empire simplistically attractive, there is every reason to believe that smart policies can avoid such an outcome.

Bruce Riedel is a Senior Fellow in the Saban Center for Policy at the and a professor at Georgetown University. He has advised four U.S. presidents on Afghanistan and was asked by President Barack Obama in January 2009 to chair an interagency strategic review of American policy toward Afghanistan and Pakistan, which was completed in March 2009. He is the author of The Search for Al Qaeda: its Leadership, Ideology and Future.