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New Mexico Commercial Spaceport Economic Impact Study for State of New Mexico Economic Development Department December 30, 2005 Futron Corporation 7315 Wisconsin Avenue Suite 900W Bethesda MD 20814-3202 (301) 913-9372 Fax: (301) 913-9475 www.futron.com New Mexico Commercial Spaceport Economic Impact Study TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................ 4 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................. 6 INDUSTRY TRENDS ...................................................................................................... 6 SPACE TOURISM ......................................................................................................................... 7 SMALLSATS ................................................................................................................................8 RLV DEVELOPMENT ................................................................................................................... 8 COMMERCIAL SPACEPORTS ........................................................................................................ 9 LAUNCH FORECAST .................................................................................................... 9 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................ 9 METHODOLOGY......................................................................................................................... 10 SUBORBITAL LAUNCHES........................................................................................................................10 SMALL ORBITAL LAUNCHES ..................................................................................................................11 LARGE ORBITAL LAUNCHES ..................................................................................................................11 RESULTS .................................................................................................................................. 12 SUBORBITAL LAUNCHES........................................................................................................................12 SMALL ORBITAL LAUNCHES ..................................................................................................................12 LARGE ORBITAL LAUNCHES ..................................................................................................................12 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................................ 13 ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT .......................................................................... 14 SUMMARY RESULTS................................................................................................................... 14 INTRODUCTION.......................................................................................................................... 14 ECONOMIC BENEFIT POTENTIAL FOR NEW MEXICO..................................................................... 15 VISION FOR 2020..................................................................................................................................15 ADVANTAGES OF GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION .............................................................................................16 POTENTIAL FOR ATTRACTING OPERATORS AND MANUFACTURERS TO NEW MEXICO................................17 POTENTIAL FOR ATTRACTING ANCILLARY BUSINESSES TO NEW MEXICO ................................................17 ECONOMIC IMPACT RESULTS..................................................................................................... 18 SPACE TRANSPORTATION......................................................................................................................19 VISITOR SPENDING AND TOURISM ..........................................................................................................20 ROCKET RACING LEAGUE .....................................................................................................................21 MANUFACTURING AND HEADQUARTERS OPERATIONS.............................................................................21 SPACEPORT CONSTRUCTION .................................................................................................................22 2 New Mexico Commercial Spaceport Economic Impact Study ADDITIONAL ECONOMIC BENEFITS FOR NEW MEXICO ................................................................ 23 SOUTHWEST REGIONAL SPACEPORT: A PROJECT OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE ............................................................................................................ 23 CONCLUSION .............................................................................................................. 24 APPENDIX A: METHODOLOGY.................................................................................. 25 AEROSPACE CLUSTER ANALYSIS .............................................................................................. 25 ECONOMIC IMPACT MODEL........................................................................................................ 26 SPACE TRANSPORTATION......................................................................................................................27 VISITOR SPENDING AND TOURISM ..........................................................................................................27 ROCKET RACING LEAGUE .....................................................................................................................28 MANUFACTURING AND HEADQUARTERS OPERATIONS.............................................................................28 SPACEPORT CONSTRUCTION .................................................................................................................28 APPENDIX B: COMPANY PROFILES ......................................................................... 29 VIRGIN GALACTIC ..................................................................................................................... 29 TRANSFORMATIONAL SPACE CORPORATION LLC...................................................................... 30 ROCKET RACING LEAGUE ......................................................................................................... 31 3 New Mexico Commercial Spaceport Economic Impact Study EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The commercial space industry in the United States is undergoing a major transformation, with the emergence of new markets and new companies to serve those markets. Suborbital space tourism companies have attracted the interest of thousands of prospective customers, while several tourists have already flown on orbital missions to the International Space Station (ISS). A number of companies are developing small, inexpensive launch vehicles designed to serve commercial and government customers and to launch payloads on short notice. NASA is also fostering the development of a revitalized commercial space industry by offering to help companies develop spacecraft that can transport cargo and crews to and from the ISS. While there are several spaceports in the United States today, these are primarily older facilities designed to serve large, expensive, expendable launch vehicles, and are ill-suited for the new generation of small, responsive suborbital and orbital vehicles. This situation presents an opportunity for states to develop new spaceports that are more agile and less expensive than the legacy facilities. The Futron Corporation, under a contract from the State of New Mexico Economic Development Department, has studied the potential economic impact of one such proposed spaceport in southern New Mexico, the Southwest Regional Spaceport. This report provides a forecast for potential spaceport activity and resulting economic impact for the years 2010 through 2020, based on the spaceport beginning operations in 2009. The results of this analysis should be considered forward-looking estimates of the maximum possible economic impact of the spaceport should the spaceport and related industries be developed and utilized to their full potential. In the first part of this study, Futron developed a forecast of the potential number of launches that could be hosted by the spaceport between 2010 and 2020, as summarized in Figure 1 below. The launch market is divided into three specific classes: suborbital launches, small orbital launches, and large orbital launches. The suborbital market features a strong increase in launches because of growing demand for space tourism, with the potential number of launches from the New Mexico spaceport increasing from 61 in 2010 to 426 in 2020. Orbital space tourism and commercial resupply missions to the ISS may generate up to three launches per year of large orbital vehicles between 2010 and 2020, and there will be no more than one launch a year of small orbital vehicles during the forecast period due to range limitations for small expendable launch vehicles at the spaceport. Figure 1: Total Forecast Potential Launch Market for New Mexico, 2010–2020 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Suborbital 61 78 100 127 161 204 241 283 328 376 426 Small Orbital 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Large Orbital 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 2 3 3 3 Total 65 82 104 131 165 209 246 286 332 380 430 Based on this launch market forecast, Futron
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