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PERIODICAL OF THE MILITARY NATIONAL SECURITY SERVICE CURRENT ISSUES Tendencies of the Jihadist Movement Russian Military Intervention in Syria: the Rebirth of Russian Military might Indochina and the French Fourth Republic - the First Indochina War (1945-1954) Basic Issues Related to Cyber Space Security The African Affair - The EU and its Connections with Mali and the Central African Republic Criminal Strategic Intelligence 2015 2 Scientific Periodical of the Military National Security Service Responsible Publisher: Lt. Gen. József Kovács, Director General, Chairman of the Scientific Board Editorial Board Chairman: Maj. Gen. János Béres, PhD Members: Lt. Col. Csaba Vida, PhD Secretary of the Scientific Board Lt. Col. János Norbert Fürjes, PhD Lt. Col. Sándor Magyar, PhD Lt. Col. Tamás Kenedli, PhD Responsible editor: Lt. Col. Szabolcs Háry Make-up editor: Capt. Viktória Magyar Language editor: Ret. Col. Mihály Szabó EVALUATIONS, ANALYSES, STUDIES József Kis-Benedek habil. PhD. Hon. Professor 5 Tendencies of the Jihadist Movement Lt.Col. Endre Szénási 17 Russian Military Intervention in Syria: the Rebirth of Russian Military Might Éva Fábián 35 Indochina and the French Fourth Republic - the First Indochina War (1945 - 1954) Part One Zoltán Nyikes, Zoltán Rajnai 74 The BIG DATA Application to the Hungarian National Digital Infrastructure Eszter Kerezsi 86 History Repeats Itself if Nobody Listens. How to Fight Against ISIS/Daesh Péter Nyeste 92 Criminal Strategic Intelligence Zoltán Sipos 105 Basic Issues Related to Cyber Space Security Mariann Vecsey 116 The African Affair - The EU and its connections with Mali and the Central African Republic CONDITIONS OF PUBLICATION 127 EVALUATIONS, ANALYSES, STUDIES JÓZSEF KIS-BENEDEK HABIL. PHD. HON. PROFESSOR, NUPS TENDENCIES OF THE JIHADIST MOVEMENT Abstract One of the most important challenges of the Middle East in 2014 and in the foreseeable future is the appearance of the Islamic State in the region and beyond it. The author analyses the root, the ideology and the objectives of the jihadist movement by concentrating on the actual tendencies and its effects on the security services. The essay tries to discover the similarities and the differences between terrorism and insurgency in the activity of the Islamic State. Keywords: Jihadist movement, Islamic State, terrorism, insurgency, security services. Introduction The Middle East influenced by the conception of Sykes-Picot began to disintegrate. Sir Mark Sykes and Francois Georges-Picot were British and French diplomats who redrew the map of the region between the Mediterranean Sea and Persia after World War I1. They invented countries like Lebanon, Jordan, Syria and Iraq. Some of these nation-states are in turmoil. The events in Syria and Iraq resemble the events occurred in Lebanon a generation ago: The central government collapses, warlords representing various groups take control over the fragments of the countries, with conflicts flowing across international boundaries. Thus, the Iraqi and the Syrian crises have become hard to distinguish, and all of this is affecting the internal Lebanese factions and of course the Jihadist movement. The question is how far the collapse of the post-World War I system will go. Will the national governments reassert themselves in a decisive way, or will the fragmentation continue? Will this process of disintegration spread to other heirs of Sykes and Picot? This question is perhaps more important than the emergence of the Islamic State. Radical Islamism is a factor in the region, and it will assert itself in various organizational forms. Thus, it is not the Islamic State, but the fragmentation and the crippling of national governments that matters. With the appearance of the ISIS (IS) in Iraq and Syria, the question is logical: what is the future of the jihadist movement? Is this a terrorist or an insurgent group? Will the Islamic State appear in other parts of the world and what about the Islamic Caliphate? In my essay I try to find answers to the above questions. 1George Friedman: The top 5 events in 2014. Stratfor geopolitical weekly: http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/top-five- events-2014#axzz3NJ1tsbwBDownloaded 30.12.2014. 5 Jihadist goals, objectives and methods Going back into the history, after leaving Mecca, Mohammed moved to Medina, where he established the world’s first Islamic Caliphate. He and his followers then launched military operations to raid the caravans of their opponents. Mohammed’s army eventually conquered Mecca and a large portion of the Arabian Peninsula before the Prophet’s death. Within a century of Mohammed’s passing, his followers had forged a vast empire that crossed North Africa and most of Spain to the west, reaching the borders of China and India in the east. Just as Mohammed and his followers had conquered much of the known world, the jihadists seek to reconquer this empire and then expand it to encompass the earth. What we can see today is that the history repeats itself. The jihadists’ plan is to first establish a state called an emirate that they can rule under jihadist principles, and then use this state as a launching pad for further conquests, creating a larger empire they refer to as the caliphate. Many jihadist ideologues believe that the caliphate should be a transnational entity that includes all Muslim lands, stretching from Spain in the west to the Philippines in the east. The caliphate would then be extended globally, bringing the entire world into submission. It is important to remember that the jihadist movement is not monolithic and that there are varying degrees of ideological difference — including goals and objectives — between some of the various actors and groups. For example, some jihadists are far more nationalistic in philosophy and less transnational. It is very important to understand that jihadists are theologically motivated. In fact, in their ideology there is no real distinction between religion, politics and culture. They believe that it is their religious duty to propagate their own strain of Islam along with the government, legal system and cultural norms that go with it. They also believe that in order to properly spread their strain of Islam they must strictly follow the example of the Prophet Mohammed and his early believers. It is also important to know that terrorism is not associated with just one group of people; it is a tactic that has been employed by a wide array of actors. There is no single creed, ethnicity, political persuasion or nationality with a monopoly on terrorism. Jihadists employ terrorism as they do insurgency — as one of many tools they can use to achieve their objectives. The al Qaeda's strategy was formulated in Al-Zawahiri’s letter to al-Zarqawi2. In the letter, al- Zawahiri wrote: “It has always been my belief that the victory of Islam will never take place until a Muslim state is established in the manner of the Prophet in the heart of the Islamic world.3” He also noted that the first step in such a plan was to expel the Americans from Iraq. The second stage was to establish an emirate and expand it into a larger caliphate. The third stage was then to attack the secular countries surrounding Iraq (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Syria and Jordan) and bring them into the caliphate. The fourth step was to use the power of the combined caliphate to attack Israel. 2Al-Zarqawi was the leader of a jihadist group operating in Iraq that had pledged allegiance to al Qaeda and changed its name to al Qaeda in Iraq. The group later turned into an umbrella organization comprising several jihadist groups and was renamed as Islamic State of Iraq. More recently, due to its efforts in Syria, the group has changed its name to the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant ISIL). 3Scott Stewart: Gauging the Jihadist Movement, Part 1: The Goals of the Jihadists. Jihadism in 2014: Defining the Movement | StratforSecurity WeeklyDecember 19, 2013. Downloaded: 28.12.2014. 6 The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant is not the only jihadist group to attempt to establish an emirate. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula made a concerted effort to seize, hold and govern territory in southern Yemen, as a result of the Yemeni revolution in 2011, briefly controlling a substantial territory there. Al Shabaab has controlled and governed parts of Somalia for several years now (though recently the group lost significant portions of it). Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb temporarily established an emirate in northern Mali in 2012, and the Nigerian jihadist group Boko Haram has attempted to establish control over areas in Nigeria’s north. At present, jihadist groups such as Ansar al-Shariah are seeking to establish control over territory amid the chaos in Libya. These events show that establishing an emirate as a base from which to launch further expansion is at the heart of the jihadist strategy, remaining an important goal for the jihadist movement. Analysing the jihadists' goals, we can see that almost all jihadists — whether they are transnational or nationalist in ideology — seek to establish an Islamic polity along the lines of a medieval emirate. This goal is not only a matter of rhetoric, but an action — several jihadist groups have attempted to establish emirates. Once established, the emirate would be ruled under an extremely austere interpretation of Sharia, as seen in Afghanistan under the Taliban, which was the first jihadist emirate. Transnational jihadists also seek to expand beyond the creation of an emirate to re-establish the caliphate. What is the difference between insurgency and terrorism from our point of view? Insurgency is an armed rebellion, and militant organizations waging insurgencies will often utilize terrorism as a tool in that rebellion. There are many conflicting definitions of terrorism, but for our purposes we will loosely define it as politically motivated violence against noncombatants.

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