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The Rapid Rise of the Islamic State in Syria: When State Weakness, Identity Politics and Regional Vacuum of Power Collide

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The Rapid Rise of the Islamic State in Syria: When State Weakness, Identity Politics and Regional Vacuum of Power Collide LEBANESE AMERICAN UNIVERSITY The Rapid Rise of the Islamic State in Syria: When State Weakness, Identity Politics and Regional Vacuum of Power Collide By Rana Assaker A thesis Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements For the degree of Master of Arts in International Affairs School of Arts and Sciences April 2016 Lebanese American University School of Arts and Sciences; Byblos Campus ii THESIS COPYRIGHT RELEASE FORM LEBANESE AMERICAN UNIVERSITY NON-EXCLUSIVE DISTRIBUTION LICENSE By signing and submitting this license, you (the author(s) or copyright owner) grants to Lebanese American University (LAU) the non-exclusive right to reproduce, translate (as defined below), and/or distribute your submission (including the abstract) worldwide in print and electronic format and in any medium, including but not limited to audio or video. You agree that LAU may, without changing the content, translate the submission to any medium or format for the purpose of preservation. You also agree that LAU may keep more than one copy of this submission for purposes of security, backup and preservation. You represent that the submission is your original work, and that you have the right to grant the rights contained in this license. You also represent that your submission does not, to the best of your knowledge, infringe upon anyone's copyright. If the submission contains material for which you do not hold copyright, you represent that you have obtained the unrestricted permission of the copyright owner to grant LAU the rights required by this license, and that such third- party owned material is clearly identified and acknowledged within the text or content of the submission. IF THE SUBMISSION IS BASED UPON WORK THAT HAS BEEN SPONSORED OR SUPPORTED BY AN AGENCY OR ORGANIZATION OTHER THAN LAU, YOU REPRESENT THAT YOU HAVE FULFILLED ANY RIGHT OF REVIEW OR OTHER OBLIGATIONS REQUIRED BY SUCH CONTRACT OR AGREEMENT. LAU will clearly identify your name(s) as the author(s) or owner(s) of the submission, and will not make any alteration, other than as allowed by this license, to your submission. Name: Rana Assaker Signat Date: 26 April 2016 iii PLAGIARISM POLICY COMPLIANCE STATEMENT I certify that: I have read and understood LAU’s Plagiarism Policy. I understand that failure to comply with this Policy can lead to academic and disciplinary actions against me. This work is substantially my own, and to the extent that any part of this work is not my own I have indicated that by acknowledging its sources. Name: Rana Assaker Signatur Date: 26 April 2016 iv The Rapid Rise of the Islamic State in Syria: When State Weakness, Identity Politics, and Regional Vacuum of power Collide Rana Antoine Assaker ABSTRACT This thesis discusses the factors that have led to the rapid rise of the Islamic State in Syria. Employing a case study methodology, it argues that the emergence and consolidation of the Islamic State in Syria are to be attributed to the following factors: state fragmentation, identity politics, and shifts in the regional balance of power coupled with a power vacuum in the Middle East. By 2014, these three factors that cut across the regional-domestic nexus have converged, facilitating the emergence of the Islamic State in Syria. Against this background, the thesis explores the dynamics of sectarian polarization between 2004 and 2014 in Syria, and the extent to which regional dynamics have shaped such dynamics. More specifically, it shows how broader rivalries coupled with the Syrian state’s politics of divide and rule have throughout the years exacerbated intra-Syrian divisions and contributed to their ‘sectarianization’. The events of the Arab Spring in 2011 have however constituted the main spark that led to the outbreak of sectarian violence in Syria pitting various factions against each other and accelerating the collapse of state legitimacy primarily in eastern Sunni-dominated areas. In this context, the Islamic State has established itself in areas that have suffered from the disengagement of the state and that have been subjected to societal and economic marginalization. The thesis further demonstrates how inter-state rivalries and weak regional structures in the Middle East have led to a state of regional unbalances. The lack of regional consensus over the prioritization of the Islamic State as a primary threat and the failing role of the Arab League in the uprisings have contributed to deepening the power vacuum that the Islamic State has conveniently and rapidly filled in Syria, presenting itself as a powerful non-state actor against a failing state and a dysfunctional regional order. Keywords: ISIS, Syria, State Weakness, Regional Balances of Power, Power Vacuum, Identity Politics, Syrian Conflict, Arab Spring v Table of Contents Chapter Page 1. Introduction 1.1- Research Objectives and Questions 1 1.2- Background 2 1.3- Justification of Research 7 1.4- Organization and Structure 9 2. Literature Review 2.1- State Fragmentation & Failure 11 2.2- Identity Politics 15 2.3- Balance of Power and Power Vacuum 19 3. Methodology 3.1- Research Philosophy and Approach 26 3.2- Research Strategy: The Case Study Approach 27 3.3- Case Study Binding 29 4. Syria and the Rise of the Islamic State 4.1- Introduction 30 4.2- The Weakness of the Syrian State 32 4.2.1- Economic Failure 33 4.2.2- Poverty and Inequality 37 4.3- The Regional Order and Syria’s Position 47 4.3.1- An Unstable Regional Order 47 4.3.2- A New Order in the Middle East 51 4.4- The Winds of Identity Politics 56 4.5- Dynamics of Crisis and the Role of the LAS 64 4.6- The Rise of the Islamic State 68 5. Discussion and Conclusion 5.1- A Perfect Storm? 76 5.2- Assessment of Contributing Factors 77 5.3- Conclusion 87 Bibliography 90 vi List of Figures Figure Page Figure 1- Map of the Sunni Triangle in Iraq 62 Figure 2 - Map of Syria & Iraq Revealing the ISIS Control Zone in June 2014 63 vii Chapter One Introduction 1.1 Research Objectives and Questions The purpose of this study is to explore and investigate the rise of the Islamic State as a non-state actor in Syria, with specific emphasis on the contextual local and regional factors that may have led or contributed to this phenomenon. The central claim of this research is that the Islamic State in Syria is a phenomenon that emerged as a result of structural and power shifts on the domestic and regional level, rather than the result of an Islamic awakening or revival, and that the religious dimension of the Islamic State is in fact an extension of the identity politics upon which these local and regional shifts and conflicts were taking place. More specifically, this study is aimed at examining intersecting local and regional factors that have contributed to the emergence of the Islamic State in Syria. I therefore attempt to answer the following research questions: To what extent did state weakness or failure contribute to this phenomenon? To what extent did identity politics contribute to the rise of the Islamic State in Syria? To what extent did the unstable regional order in the Middle East, the shift in the balance of power, and the emergence of a power vacuum contribute to the rise of the Islamic State in Syria? To address these research objectives and questions, I employ a case study approach to explain the emergence and rise of the Islamic State in Syria, with the basic assumption that the emergence of this phenomenon was the result of the perfect intersection of enabling 1 local and regional factors. The local factors include the gradual and eventually accelerated weakening of the Syrian state as a result of the failed reforms of Bashar Assad after 2000;1 the collapse of many vital state functions and services as a result of corruption and the persistent severe drought between 2006 and 2010;2 and the growing intensity of identity politics along sectarian lines inside Syria, some of which was attributed to the failed internal regime politics and much of which was attributed to the regional strife along sectarian identity lines. The regional factors include the unstable regional Arab order as a result of the collapse of the balance of power between regional powers –the Shiite Iran and the Sunni Arab World– following the invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the 2011 Arab Spring, and the failing role of the League of Arab States (LAS) in Syria; and finally, the emergence of a power vacuum in Syria, extending to Iraq, that resulted from the weak position of the Syrian state in the middle of a regional power struggle along ethnic and sectarian rift lines in the Middle East. 1.2 Background The Islamic State (IS), also known as the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq (ISIS), or the Islamic State in Syria and the Levant (ISIL), is a non-state actor that emerged between 2011 and 2013, and in June 2014 claimed statehood in the region extending from western Iraq to the eastern territories of Syria. The statehood was declared under the guise of the Islamic caliphate with the Iraqi city of Mosul as its capital in Iraq and Raqqa as its capital in Syria.3 1 A. Sarihan. (2012). “Is the Arab Spring in the third wave of democratization? The case of Syria and Egypt.” Turkish Journal of Politics, v.3, no.1, pp.67-68. 2 T. Friedman. (Jan 22, 2014). “Wikileaks, drought and Syria: Commentary.” New York Times, p.A21. 3 N. Panayiotides. (Sep 2015). “The Islamic State and the redistribution of power in the Middle East.” International Journal on World Peace, v.32, no.3, pp.
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