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Philadelphia White Paper a Story of a Re-Emerging City January 2020

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Philadelphia White Paper a Story of a Re-Emerging City January 2020 Coretrust Capital Partners is a vertically integrated office investor reinventing large assets to serve today’s tenants. Philadelphia White Paper A Story of a Re-Emerging City January 2020 444 South Flower Street | Suite 600 | Los Angeles, CA 90071 | P: (213) 689-0000 | www.coretrustcapital.com P a g e | 2 KEY HEADLINES Urbanization and · Population growth among key target populations from 2012-2017 1 Density · Densifying CBD with innovating industries · 54% retention of recent graduates Jobs Growth and · Global leader in cell and gene therapy research 2 Trends · Forbes Top 10 city for startups · Growing presence of outside investors and accelerators 3 The Comcast Effect · 2018 opening of $1.5B Comcast Technology Center · Significant spillover impacting local economy and jobs in high paying sectors Tourism and · Visitor spending increased a total 16% since 2014 4 Hospitality · Hotel room occupancy increased by 14% since 2014 Quality of Life · Increased presence of award-winning restaurants 5 Amenities · Dining options increased by over 60% since 2008 · In the past five years, nearly 80 new national retailers have entered Downtown Multifamily Market · Center City inventory increased 25% since 2010 6 · Stable 5% vacancy rates since 2015 outperforming national averages · Nearly 7,000 units in planning stages Commercial Office · Approximately 8 million SF of office space conversions since 2000 has removed 7 Space – Supply obsolete inventory from the market · No office buildings are currently under construction in the CBD at the time of this writing Commercial Office · Asking rent up 24% since 2014 8 Space – Demand · Trophy office space has a 6% vacancy rate · More than 1.2M SF new tenant inbound demand since 2015 (>50 entrants) Commercial Office · Today’s Trophy/Class A CBD inventory is owned by well-capitalized, 9 Capital Markets institutional, and/or international · International investors now own 23% of Trophy or Class A CBD inventoryi 444 South Flower Street | Suite 600 | Los Angeles, CA 90071 | P: (213) 689-0000 | www.coretrustcapital.com P a g e | 3 I. Philadelphia Regional Economy Market Context Philadelphia was once considered the workshop of the world - a global manufacturing giant, producing everything from heavy industrial materials such as steel ships, to consumer goods like Stetson hats, to chemical processing. After decades of post-industrial decline, it has found a place in the modern economy as a powerhouse in communications and technology, healthcare and education, and increasingly as a world-class center for biomedical and life sciences innovation. Since the first Philadelphia white paper that Coretrust Capital Partners LLC (“Coretrust”) produced in 2014, demand drivers have positively impacted the office market in a virtuous loop. To attract and retain young, talented employees, prominent companies have expanded or entered Philadelphia’s downtown, offering higher skilled and better paying jobs. With increased opportunity and a preference for urban living, the large number of students educated in Philadelphia have many more reasons to stay in the city. Historically, Philadelphia exported talent that it educated to other US cities. Mergers and acquisitions activity by industry leaders such as Comcast, Cigna, and the Jefferson Health system have led the employment growth charge. After years of living in the city and commuting to the suburbs (or leaving the MSA), recent graduates now enjoy a growing and more dynamic amenity-base of retail, dining, and housing options. This positive feedback loop has fueled rent growth and has encouraged the reemergence of institutional and international investors over the past years, which vacated the market in the late 1990’s. This increased investor interest is further buttressing the strength of the office real estate market. The largest city in Pennsylvania and sixth largest in the United States, the city of Philadelphia is home to over 1.5 million residents, with population growth of over 135,000 in the last decade (after five decades of decline). Moreover, population forecasts are being revised upward with immigration increasing and net domestic out- migration declining. Employment within Philadelphia grew by 6 percent over the last five years, to 686,000 jobs in 2019, outpacing the rate of growth in New York City, Chicago, and Houston.ii The city of Philadelphia is the economic hub of the nation’s 8th largest metropolitan area with 6.1 million people and a Gross Metropolitan Product (GMP) of $387.2 billion. The region’s GMP increased 9.9 percent from 2012 to 2017, growing faster than Chicago, Houston, New York, and Washington, DC.iii The Philadelphia MSA is home to fifteen Fortune 500 companies, with two located within Center City: Comcast and Aramark. Additionally, three Fortune 1000 companies are based in Philadelphia: FMC (556), Urban Outfitters (634), and Carpenter Technology (940). II. Urbanization and Density The city’s recent economic growth has had a significantly positive impact on Center City, the metropolitan area’s Central Business District. One of Center City’s strengths is its large, growing residential base. Its population increased by 22% since 2000 (with more than 26,195 new housing units delivered, including a record-high of 2,810 units in 2018).iv Two major luxury condominiums are currently under construction in Center City— Art Haus and the Laurel, which will add to the inventory. This has strengthened commercial office and retail demand and should continue to support a growing market. 444 South Flower Street | Suite 600 | Los Angeles, CA 90071 | P: (213) 689-0000 | www.coretrustcapital.com P a g e | 4 Philadelphia is increasingly regarded as a key place for young professionals to live—in part because of the retention of its college graduates and because of its relative affordability compared to other East Coast cities. Between 2012 and 2017, the main demographic groups that drove population growth in the city were post- secondary degree-holders (25% growth), foreign-born individuals (17.1%), and adults between the ages of 22 and 39 years old (9.7%).v The city has also become more densely populated at its core (60 people per acre today versus 55 people per acre in 2010). In 2015, it was ranked as having the second-most densely populated downtown district in the United States, behind Midtown Manhattan.vi From an investment perspective, this is particularly compelling because research has shown that population density increases innovation.vii It is important to note that the Philadelphia growth rate has changed over time. From 2000 to 2010 Philadelphia city’s growth was a modest 0.6%. The latest ACS 1-year estimate from 2018 estimated growth since 2010 at 3.8%, a 6-fold increase. From 2012 to 2017, the population in Greater Center City (e.g. Philadelphia’s CBD) experienced an overall growth of 10.7%. Growth was especially high among both individuals between the ages of 25 and 34 years old (24.9%) and “empty-nesters.”viii Figure 1: Greater Center City Boundary While not a new element, it is worth noting that Center City benefits from one of the most effective and efficient urban transit networks in the US, with strong connections to interregional transportation infrastructure such as Amtrak, Philadelphia International Airport, rail yards, and river ports. Moreover, numerous infrastructure improvement projects in the pipeline bode well for Center City’s walkability and connectivity. Source: Center City District, Open Data Philly (2019) III. Eds and Meds Infrastructure A. Eds and Meds as a Talent Source “Eds and Meds,” the higher education and healthcare sectors, are well known as an important piece of Philadelphia’s economy—representing 251,000 jobs in 2018 (up from 226,000 jobs in 2014, a growth of 11.2%),.ix These institutions have educated and retained highly skilled young professionals, who enhance the local talent pool or create new companies. Each year, more than 100 colleges and universities around Philadelphia enroll more than 400,000 students and grant degrees to roughly 90,000 students.x B. Monetizing Eds and Meds The monetization of Eds and Meds cannot be understated. In 2018, the city’s institutions received nearly $1 billion in NIH grant funding. This represents 21.3% growth since 2009, placing the city third nationally.xi Moreover, some traditionally non-commercial institutions have successfully begun to monetize research. In 2017, Drexel University, Temple University, Thomas Jefferson University, University of Pennsylvania, and Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia (“CHOP”) launched a combined total of 29 startups.xii 444 South Flower Street | Suite 600 | Los Angeles, CA 90071 | P: (213) 689-0000 | www.coretrustcapital.com P a g e | 5 Philadelphia institutions have made great strides translating that research into innovative new products and companies, further attracting talent and more funding. Developments such as the Schuylkill Yards, a $3.5 billion upcoming innovation hub in University City, the expansion of the University City Science Center, and Pennovation Works, a business incubator and laboratory that fosters the commercialization of research discoveries, reflect how Philadelphia’s Eds and Meds have built an ecosystem to grow the inventions and ideas that will become tomorrow’s businesses. IV. Talent Retention As noted above, in decades past, Philadelphia educated and trained human capital and exported it to other US cities. That trend has changed dramatically. Approximately 54% of degree holders who attended Philadelphia- area
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