Energy Security

Transition in Action, Totnes and District 2030, an Energy Descent Action Plan Energy Security “Sometimes people ask me, “Surely we used The National Energy Picture: to live on renewables just fine before the industrial revolution? Yes, but don’t forget that Where our Energy Comes two things were different then: lifestyles From at the Moment and population densities.” Although different kinds of fuels are used for pro- David J C Mackay, Professor of Physics, ducing different types of energy, it is important to Cambridge University1 note that not all are interchangeable. The Challenge Fossil fuels Oil has a high energy density and its liquid nature At present, despite plenty of Governmental talk about makes it easily transportable. It is used for over 90% the need to create a low carbon economy, 90% of the of the world’s transport and is an important raw ma- UK’s energy supply in 2009 still comes from oil, gas terial for the plastics, chemical and pharmaceutical and coal, fossil fuels which are finite and non-renew- industries. Oil is also used for making pesticides and able, and high emitters of carbon. Renewable energy other agrochemicals. The UK was self-reliant for oil, use is now over 5 times the level it was in 1990, but in and for gas, profiting from exports of both, until 2003. 2007 contributed to only 3.3% of our energy demand. We lose energy due to inefficient conversion and use Gas requires more stringent measures to contain of supplies and poor conservation of the energy. and transport and is more suited to static applica- tions such as cooking, space heating and water The UK’s energy situation is deeply perilous. We are heating and electricity generation. It is also used as at the end of lots of very long pipelines, and North a raw material for fertilizer production. Global peak Sea oil and gas peaked several years ago and are now gas is expected around 10 years later than oil, but falling sharply. Much of our indigenous energy pro- when that peak comes it will be more abrupt than duction was sold during the 1980s at a time when the oil peak. The UK is more dependent on natural oil and gas prices were very low. Now we have be- gas than most other countries. 38% of UK primary come a net importer of energy, at a time when those energy comes from gas, as opposed to, for example, prices are highly volatile. The imperative to reduce 25% in the US. our consumption of fossil fuels is driven by the need to reduce carbon emissions with huge urgency, and Coal is the least energy dense (but most carbon also by the fact that we need to build energy security; rich) of the fossil fuels. Its primary use in the UK as Fatih Birol, Chief Economist at the International is electricity generation; worldwide use is growing Energy Agency puts it “we must leave oil before oil more rapidly than any other fuel. Global peak coal leaves us”. is expected around 2025 and the quality of the coal being mined around the world is falling sharply. The Government’s response is to talk of a new generation of coal fired power station, and also nuclear Other non-conventional oil resources include energy. Both of these responses are problematic. deep-water oil, polar oil, heavy oil, tar sands and The UK has also seen a doubling over the last 4 years oil shale. These require high investment in energy of the number of residents living in fuel poverty, that (giving a low EROEI2) to recover them and their is, needing to spend more than 10% of their income carbon implications are such that their use should on energy. be avoided. 120 Energy Security EDAP 1.indb 120 01/04/2010 20:04:30 A Timeline to 2030 3 61.5% 13% Losses due Losses due to poor to inefficient insulation, unwanted conversion (Heat) appliances left on etc. 100% 3.5% 22% National Grid Losses Primary Useful Energy Energy Loss of Energy due to inefficient Conversion. Source: Greenpeace 3.18 Nuclear power ing is possible. Nuclear power plants in France have already had to operate below capacity due to this Nuclear energy is produced as electricity from fis- effect and their legislative upper limit of 24 C for re- sion of uranium oxide, a finite resource. It currently ceiving waters post discharge. accounts for about 3% of total UK energy supply. The EROEI of nuclear power is worsening as stocks Nuclear fusion (based on light elements, e.g. hy- of high quality uranium ore deplete although there drogen & lithium) has been researched for over 2 are clearly differing ideas about how long reserves decades, but has not yet provided a reliable source may last. The DARE report states that under cur- of clean or cheap energy. Its potential contribu- rent consumption levels the world’s known reserves tion towards energy provision remains speculative. may last 60 years3 However in another scenario Pro- Lithium - a likely vanishing resource - is relatively fessor David MacKay suggests thorium could yield uncommon in the earth’s crust (and China has been 120 kWh/day per person for 60,000 years4 Dr Co- buying up lithium mining rights over the past de- lin Campbell of ASPO has stated that “if the all the cade); this could also have serious implications for world converted to nuclear tomorrow, this would electric cars and similar vehicles, as lithium is cur- last about 3 years”5. Production of nuclear power rently a key component of their batteries. also uses fossil fuels at most stages of its production. Energy from renewable supplies Global warming is also having an impact on nuclear power production. Natural streams are used In 2007 just 1.5%6 of the total UK energy supply for cooling purposes; as global temperatures and came from renewable sources, and much of that sea temperatures rise these streams will reach the was methane gas reclaimed from landfill sites. Re- power plants at higher temperatures, thus less cool- newable energy is an integral part of the Govern- Creative Energy Systems 121 EDAP 1.indb 121 01/04/2010 20:04:30 Transition in Action, Totnes and District 2030, an Energy Descent Action Plan 21% Industry 30% Energy 13% Households use in Agriculture 2005 & Services 36% Transport 3.19 Energy Use in Britain. Source: Zero Carbon Britain ment’s longer-term aim of reducing CO2 emissions Transportation – mainly uses oil by 80% by 2050, a figure now matched by the rest Heating, cooling and cooking – mainly uses gas, of the G8 countries. In 2000 the Government set a but in rural areas also relies heavily on oil, electricity target of 10% of electricity supply from renewable and some wood. energy by 2010, and in 2006 announced an aspira- tion to double that level by 20207. Industry and Services – generally uses gas coal & oil How we Use Energy The Coming Energy Gap Before exploring solutions, it may be useful to firstly look at the ways in which we produce energy for In 2007, the UK imported 20.2% of its consumption use at present. of primary fuels8. With UK oil and gas production in the North Sea in sharp decline this gap, in effect, the Electricity is currently produced in the UK using UK’s energy deficit is widening sharply, and we will 78% fossil fuels; 1% oil, 43% gas and 34% coal. Nu- need to find alternative domestic energy supplies or clear electricity contributed 15% to electricity pro- increase imports. However, fossil fuel supplies world duction in 2007, but has been declining in the past wide are also in decline, with more than 65 of the decade and will continue to do so over the next 20 98 oil producing nations having passed their peak years. Renewables continue to grow but in 2007 in oil production, and those nations whose produc- contributed just 5%. Electricity generation currently tion hasn’t yet peaked will need more and more of it accounts for about one third of the UK’s total carbon themselves; therefore less and less imported energy emissions. will become available to the UK. 122 Energy Security EDAP 1.indb 122 01/04/2010 20:04:30 A Timeline to 2030 3 As fossil fuels become scarcer, they become more Renewable Energy costly and energy intensive to extract. The ratio of the amount of energy a resource provides and the Renewable energy supplies can be captured from: amount of energy required to recover that resource Solar is known as Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI). EROEIs for fossil fuels decline as resources Wind decline and are likely to indicate that other sources Hydro of energy such as renewables are more profitable for Biomass short-term as well as long term investment. Waste organic material The UK has a security of supply problem loom- ing, this is known as the “energy gap”. A substan- We can also harness additional energy by using tial number of old coal and nuclear power stations technology such as heat pumps to increase supplies (around 30% of the current total generation capac- we are already using. ity) are scheduled to close by 2020. These currently In the T & D Energy Budget section we explore these produce 22.5 gigawatts (GW) of energy production; different technologies. leaving a risk that energy demand will exceed supply unless alternative energy supplies are available. As former UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Nigel Managing the National Grid, Lawson said in 2008, “all in all, the likelihood of the Fluctuating Supplies, Seasons lights going out in Europe at some point over the and Storage next 20 years has never been greater”.

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