ZERO CARBON BRITA N A NEW ENERGY STRATEGY The second report of the 2030 Zero Carbon Britain project 2 Foreword Forewords and quotes below from: Professor Graham Parkhurst, Centre for Transport and Society Sir John Haughton, Former Co-Chair, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Professor Godfrey Boyle, Open University Rob Hopkins, Transition Towns Founder Paul Davies, Wates Living Spaces Dr Victoria Johnson, new economics foundation Hugo Spowers, Riversimple. “As historically the first high-carbon economy to have developed, and today being a significant net importer of carbon-intensive goods, the UK has a particular responsibility to take political and practical leadership in the international process of decarbonisation. zerocarbonbritain2030 makes an important contribution to the climate change debate. It is pioneering in offering a fully integrated routemap for addressing carbon emissions from the UK perspective, going beyond the most ambitious targets hitherto to propose a 90 percent reduction by 2030 (rather than the 2050 typically discussed), together with ‘carbon capture’ equivalent to the remaining 10 per cent. In order to effectively eliminate carbon emissions from British industry, homes, power generation, and transport systems, the report seeks to “power down” high-carbon living by reducing energy demand, so as to facilitate a transfer to fossil-free supply. Importantly, the carbon reduction benefits are placed in the context of wider benefits of ‘regime change’, including avoiding the spectre of ever more expensive and scarce oil, the opportunities for ‘green jobs’ and the creation of a more equitable society. New technologies and more efficient design are evaluated as an essential part of the decarbonisation strategy, to be “powered up”. Offshore wind and wave energy are identified as having the strongest potential as renewable energy sources, providing most of the fossil-fuel free energy mix by 2030 (and with the latter including no new nuclear capacity). Although embracing the importance of new technologies, the report does recognise the limits to ‘fit and forget’ fixes, identifying more radical reform as essential in the agricultural sector, which in the future will focus on ‘locking in’ carbon in the soil and vegetation, and in spatial and transport planning, to prioritise the needs of people, rather than energy-intense vehicles. These strategic shifts will also need to be accompanied by behaviour and lifestyle changes by citizens, such as more walking and cycling and less meat consumption. 3 Whilst it is the nature of scenarios that they are rarely followed precisely by actual events, zerocarbonbritain2030 has effectively applied a ‘backcasting’ approach to demonstrate that at least one set of policy options and technical measures exists to eliminate carbon emissions whilst simultaneously enhancing our quality of life. We now need the political leadership, public consensus, and ongoing scientific support to turn possibility into reality.” Professor Graham Parkhurst, Centre for Transport and Society, University of the West of England. “This new report from the Centre for Alternative Technology is much to be welcomed, coming as it does at the start of a new administration. The goal of peak emissions by 2016 is less than seven years away. Everything necessary to reach that first goal will have to be put in place by the next government – a challenge they must take up with unusual urgency. A year ago in May 2009, a Nobel Laureates Symposium on Climate Change hosted in London by the Prince of Wales had as its title, The Fierce Urgency of Now. One of the few positive outcomes of the Copenhagen Conference in December 2009 was the near-global consensus for a goal of 2o C for the maximum rise of global average temperature from its pre-industrial value due to human activities. That is a necessary, but tough target for the world to meet. It will require, for instance, peak global emissions by about 2016. However it was very disappointing that little was accomplished at Copenhagen to set up the actions required for its realization. Two reasons are often advanced to delay action on climate change. The first is to present climate change as a longer-term issue and argue that of more immediate concern are big issues like world poverty. That may appear to be the case until it is realised that the plight of the world’s poor will become enormously worse unless strong action to curb climate change is taken now. The second is to suggest the financial crisis must have top priority and action on climate change will have to wait. That again may seem good sense until it is realised that there is much to be gained if both crises are tackled together. Also, many studies, for instance those by the International Energy Agency1 (IEA, 2008), demonstrate that necessary action is affordable; increased investment in the short term is balanced by savings that accrue in the longer term. This report presents detailed information and argument to demonstrate that zero emissions by 2030 is within reach – given appropriate commitment, dedication and effort on the part of government, industry, NGOs and the public at large. In calling for a common sense of purpose, not just nationally but internationally too, it points out the benefits to society – its health, social welfare and sustainability – that will result from the pursuit of such a goal. May I urge you to study carefully its arguments and its findings.” Sir John Houghton, Former Co-Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 4 “Since their pioneering Low Energy Strategy for the UK in 1977, the Centre for Alternative Technology has been pointing the way towards a sustainable energy future for Britain. Now the CAT researchers have done it again. Their new zerocarbonbritain2030 report, building on the analysis in the first Zero Carbon Britain report in 2007, describes in detail how the UK could make the transition to a zero carbon society as early as 2030. CAT’s integrated approach involves “powering-down” (reducing energy wastage) and “powering-up” (deploying renewable energies), combined with lifestyle and land use changes. It demonstrates that the UK economy could be 100% powered by renewables – if we can muster the political will to make it happen. And if we do, the Britain of 2030 will be a greener, cleaner, fairer place. ZCB2030’s proposals are more radical than those of the UK Government, which envisages a much slower 80% reduction in carbon emissions by 2050. But even if they don’t yet agree with all of its conclusions, ZCB2030 should be essential reading for politicians, policymakers, researchers and anyone else interested in positive responses to the challenges of climate change and energy security.” Godfrey Boyle, Professor of Renewable Energy, Open University. “The first zerocarbonbritain report, published in June 2007, was an extraordinary document. Although aspects of a zero carbon Britain were missing from it, such as food and farming and behaviour change, it was an audaciously bold and desperately needed framing of a key concept – how the UK could move to being a zero carbon economy over 20 years. Rather than come up with endless reasons why this seemingly impossible task couldn’t be done, the default political response to climate change at the time, it set out a bold vision for a lower-energy future. It was a visionary and inspired project, as well as a prototype for a larger and more detailed follow-up. It is that follow- up, zerocarbonbritain2030, that you now hold in your hands. With Government still in denial about peak oil, with the scale of the changes necessitated to have the best possible chances of avoiding catastrophic climate change leading some to deem them impossible, and others to retreat into a rejection of the science, ZCB2030 is a breath of fresh air. We stand at an unprecedented crossroads, making choices now that will profoundly affect the future. What ZCB2030 does brilliantly is to argue that the approach of powering down (reducing demand) and powering up (building a new, zero carbon energy infrastructure) is not a hair shirt, survivalist rejection of modernity, rather it is the logical, achievable next step forward for the people of these islands. It is a move towards entrepreneurship, resilience, connectedness and stability. It offers a return to scale, a bringing home of the impacts of our actions, and a shift to a world that we can hand on to our grandchildren with relief and pride, and with a twinkle in our eyes. Bringing together much of current thinking on energy, food, climate change, economics and the psychology of engaging people in such a monumental undertaking, it argues its case patiently and clearly. In the Transition movement, we often ask the question, ‘what would it feel like, look 5 like, smell like, sound like, if you woke up in 2030 and we had successfully managed this transition?’ ZCB2030 offers a very tangible taste of such a world, of energy-efficient homes, with less need to travel and highly efficient public transport for when we do need to, more localised food production and a more seasonal diet, of energy production owned and managed by the communities it serves. For many of you reading this report, some of these things will already be an integral part of your lives. In all the time that I taught gardening and permaculture, nobody ever came back to me and said that their quality of life had been diminished by acquiring those skills. Likewise, the societal shift in this direction will be a collective journey, a collective undertaking, and one that offers an increase in our quality of life, rather than a decrease. Inevitably with a work going against the status quo in such a fundamental way, such as ZCB2030, questions arise, such as whether, in the light of the UK’s recent economic turmoils and declining levels of surplus net energy, we can actually afford to implement the new infrastructure set out here? Will there be sufficient economic slack to allow us to resource this? One thing is certain, that the transition set out here is the clearest, best researched and most attractive option that is currently on the table, and we are beholden to work out how to make it, or something that has built on it, happen.