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Influences on Transport Policy Makers and Their

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Influences on Transport Policy Makers and Their INFLUENCES ON TRANSPORT POLICY MAKERS AND THEIR ATTITUDES TOWARDS PEAK OIL A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Masters of Engineering in Transport at the University of Canterbury by R.J. Wardell Department of Civil and Natural Resources Engineering University of Canterbury 2010 Abstract Transport plays a vital role in society, and energy for transport relies on fossil fuels. However, the future of the transport system is uncertain due to a concept relating to the diminishing supply of fossil fuels, termed ‘peak oil’. Transport policy makers have an important role to play in planning for a possible reduction in the availability of fossil fuels, however it remains unclear how they perceive the issue, exactly who or what influences their perception, and even if they are prepared (or not) to put in place measures that could minimise the potential impacts. It is vital that we understand all the factors and the actors involved in transport policy making, in order to understand why this issue is not currently widely accepted as part of mainstream transport policy. A conceptual model and theoretical framework have been developed to outline a method for gaining a better understanding of the characteristics of, and influences on, the transport policy makers at a local level, and how they view the peak oil problem. In order to test the theoretical framework, a series of case studies were conducted in three cities of varying sizes in New Zealand. The case studies involved interviews and surveys with transport policy makers. The results of the case study established that many technical staff have major concerns about peak oil but their concerns are not translated into policy because the majority of elected officials, who give the final approval on policy, believe that alternative fuels and new technologies will mitigate any peak oil impacts. This view is reinforced by a lack of scientific evidence to the contrary, and a lack of political and financial support from Central government to plan for peak oil. A change in attitude towards peak oil by Central government is a pre-requisite to introducing planning for peak oil at the local level in New Zealand. ii Table of Contents Abstract ........................................................................................................................................... ii Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................... iii List of Figures .............................................................................................................................. viii List of Tables ............................................................................................................................... xiii List of Abbreviations .................................................................................................................... xv Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................................... xvii 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Background ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Scientific Problem ............................................................................................................ 2 1.3 Research Motivations ....................................................................................................... 3 1.4 Research Objectives ......................................................................................................... 4 1.5 Hypothesis ........................................................................................................................ 5 1.6 Thesis Structure ................................................................................................................ 5 2 Literature review ..................................................................................................................... 6 2.1 Transport policy ............................................................................................................... 6 2.2 Actors and their influences in transport policy making ................................................... 7 2.2.1 Knowledge and Information ..................................................................................... 7 2.2.2 Political Influences.................................................................................................... 9 2.2.3 Interest groups ......................................................................................................... 13 2.2.4 Business Groups/Industry Groups .......................................................................... 15 2.2.5 The Public ............................................................................................................... 19 2.2.6 Individuals............................................................................................................... 21 iii 2.2.7 Organisations .......................................................................................................... 23 2.2.8 Media ...................................................................................................................... 24 2.2.9 Other actors and influences ..................................................................................... 24 2.3 Current issues and directions in transport policy making .............................................. 26 2.3.1 Barriers to implementing sustainable transport policy ........................................... 30 2.3.2 Diversity in the transport policy process ................................................................ 32 2.3.3 Energy consumption in transport policy ................................................................. 33 2.4 Peak oil ........................................................................................................................... 34 2.5 Science behind peak oil .................................................................................................. 36 2.5.1 Alternatives to conventional oil .............................................................................. 39 2.6 Peak oil and transport ..................................................................................................... 41 2.6.1 Transport, peak oil and economic growth............................................................... 42 2.6.2 Continuing the ‘status quo’ in a peak oil scenario .................................................. 46 2.7 Transport policy actions addressing peak oil ................................................................. 48 2.7.1 New Zealand Peak Oil Policy and Planning ........................................................... 50 2.7.2 International Examples of Peak Oil Policy and Planning ....................................... 52 2.8 Political science theory................................................................................................... 54 2.8.1 Broad political concepts and theories ..................................................................... 55 2.8.2 Policy making theories ............................................................................................ 56 2.9 Political science theory applied to the analysis of transport policy making’ actors and influences .................................................................................................................................. 61 2.9.1 Broad political theories and concepts linked to transport policy ............................ 61 2.9.2 Policy making theories, frameworks and models linked to transport policy .......... 63 2.10 Other Policy Arenas.................................................................................................... 66 iv 2.11 Survey Methods .......................................................................................................... 69 2.12 Literature review conclusions ..................................................................................... 71 3 Conceptual Model Development .......................................................................................... 73 3.1 Economic growth – the dominant paradigm .................................................................. 73 3.2 An alternative paradigm ................................................................................................. 75 3.3 Dilemma for transport policy makers............................................................................. 76 3.4 Conceptual model diagram............................................................................................. 77 4 Theoretical Framework ......................................................................................................... 78 4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 78 4.2 Understanding the wider context: identifying key location factors ............................... 81 4.3 Gathering information on transport policy makers ........................................................ 83 4.3.1 Data collection method ........................................................................................... 86 4.3.2 Question type and structure ...................................................................................
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