Perspectives and Practices Regarding Extreme Heat Risk
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Utah State University DigitalCommons@USU All Graduate Theses and Dissertations Graduate Studies 12-2018 The Heat Is On! Perspectives and Practices Regarding Extreme Heat Risk Emily D. Esplin Utah State University Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd Part of the Geography Commons Recommended Citation Esplin, Emily D., "The Heat Is On! Perspectives and Practices Regarding Extreme Heat Risk" (2018). All Graduate Theses and Dissertations. 7397. https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd/7397 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate Studies at DigitalCommons@USU. It has been accepted for inclusion in All Graduate Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@USU. For more information, please contact [email protected]. THE HEAT IS ON! PERSPECTIVES AND PRACTICES REGARDING EXTREME HEAT RISK by Emily D. Esplin A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE in Geography Approved: ___________________ ____________________ Peter D. Howe, Ph.D. S.-Y. Simon Wang, Ph.D. Major Professor Committee Member ____________________ ____________________ Courtney Flint, Ph.D. Laurens H. Smith, Ph.D. Committee Member Interim Vice President of Research and Interim Dean of the School of Graduate Studies UTAH STATE UNIVERSITY Logan, UT 2018 ii Copyright © Emily D. Esplin 2018 All Rights Reserved iii ABSTRACT The Heat Is on! Perspectives and Practices Regarding Extreme Heat Risk by Emily D. Esplin, Master of Science Utah State University, 2018 Major Professor: Dr. Peter D. Howe Department: Environment and Society Extreme heat events are the deadliest natural hazard in the US even though heat- related illnesses are largely preventable phenomena. As heat waves intensify due to climate change and more people become exposed due to population growth in the most heat-prone regions, it becomes increasingly important to understand what motivates protective behaviors against heat risks. This includes understanding what heat risk messaging effectively encourages people to implement heat-adaptive practices. Although several studies have examined adaptive capacity and risk communication for many natural hazards, few have examined what influences protective behaviors in extreme heat situations. Building on literature addressing adaptive capacity, experience, and risk communication, this thesis is composed of two studies that ask what influences heat protective behaviors and what is the best way to communicate heat risks to motivate protective actions? Using data from a nationally representative survey, the first study analyzes the spatial, demographic, and experiential influences on heat protective iv behaviors of US populations. In the second study, heat risk communication practices were analyzed using mental model interviews of practitioners responsible for communicating heat risks in the state of Utah. Survey results indicate that some demographic factors were important predictors for certain protective behaviors during a heat wave. Previous experience with heat-related health symptoms strongly predicted all reported heat protective behaviors. Interview results demonstrate that while heat risk communication products in Utah were somewhat unfamiliar dependent on geography and profession, personal experience with extreme heat influenced heat risk decisions and messaging practices of many practitioners. Furthermore, public forecasters have experienced an institutional shift to better measure and communicate the dangers of dry heat in the Intermountain West. These studies support the positive influence of negative impacts on future protective actions and provide insight for professionals seeking to improve heat risk awareness and communication practices. (162 pages) v PUBLIC ABSTRACT The Heat Is on! Perspectives and Practices Regarding Extreme Heat Risk Emily D. Esplin Remembering negative experiences with extreme heat may promote future protective actions and provide insight to improve heat risk awareness and communication practices. This two-part thesis found 1) that experiencing heat-related health symptoms predicted what Americans would do to protect themselves and others during subsequent heat waves; and 2) that Utah professionals regard heat-related experience as an important factor in how they responded to extreme heat events. In the first study, a US national survey showed that personal experience with heat- related health symptoms was related to the tendency to say that one engaged in different protective behaviors, while other factors like risk perception and temperature were less related to self-reported behaviors. Sociodemographic factors such as age, race, and gender were related to Americans’ reported efforts to check on other people during a heat wave—with African-Americans, women, and older adults being more likely to do so— but did not have much relationship with how people personally protect themselves. The second study found that heat experience was an important factor in how public officials and media broadcasters manage extreme heat situations. Interviews of professionals in Utah revealed that experience with heat impacts influenced public forecasters, practitioners, and media members alike in their heat risk decisions and messaging practices even though official heat risk communication products in Utah were vi somewhat unfamiliar. This study also found that public forecasters recently changed how they measure extreme heat to better communicate the dangers of dry heat in the Intermountain West. This change will likely cause more official heat alerts to be issued in this region. vii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to thank my committee members, Peter Howe, Courtney Flint, and Simon Wang for their insight, encouragement, and feedback. I am especially grateful for my major professor, Dr. Peter Howe, who provided regular support, timely feedback, and wise advice as my research evolved and came to fruition. His patience, respect, and trust in my abilities to learn, grow, and persevere have been paramount to my success. I am grateful for my co-authors, Anthony Leiserowitz and Jennifer Marlon, for showing interest in my work and providing support in preparing my first article for journal submission, and for the collaboration and camaraderie of my lab partner, Yajie Li, for her willingness and diligence as the second coder for my inter-rater reliability analysis. Financial support was provided in part by two National Science Foundation grants, including a fellowship in the Climate Adaptation Science (CAS) program. Nancy Huntly and CAS gave me the opportunity to apply my research to a practitioner setting in a meaningful way. National Weather Service (NWS) partners, Randy Graham and Brian McInerney, provided awareness of the new heat risk initiative and direct contact information for potential participants, making this study more applicable to the current practices of heat risk warning and communication systems in Utah and beyond. Lastly, I am deeply grateful for the support of my family and friends throughout the entire process. I would not have succeeded without their patience, love, and listening ears. This is especially true for my parents, DaLon and Lisa Esplin, whose encouragement and belief in me never end. Gratitude for them, for my grandparents’ viii hospitality, and for my siblings is immeasurable. ‘Thank you’ does little justice for the support my entire family has rendered me. Emily D. Esplin ix CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................. iii PUBLIC ABSTRACT .................................................................................................... v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ............................................................................................ vii LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................... x LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................... xi CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................. 1 2. CAN YOU TAKE THE HEAT? HEAT-INDUCED HEALTH SYMPTOMS INFLUENCE PROTECTIVE BEHAVIORS ............................... 4 3. IT’S A DRY HEAT: SHIFTING PROFESSIONAL PERSPECTIVES ON EXTREME HEAT RISK IN UTAH ......................................................... 45 4. CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................ 79 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................. 83 APPENDICES ........................................................................................................... 101 A. SAMPLE DISTRIBUTION MAP ................................................................. 102 B. RANDOM EFFECTS ODDS RATIOS ......................................................... 103 C. PREDICTED PROBABILITES OF INTERACTION TERM ........................ 110 D. ALTERNATIVE DICHOTOMIZATION ...................................................... 112 E. ALTERNATIVE EXPOSURE VARIABLES ................................................ 115 F. EXPERT MODEL (ORIGINAL) .................................................................. 117 G. STEPS TO A MENTAL MODELS APPROACH ......................................... 118 H. INTERVIEW PROTOCOL .........................................................................