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2019 Load & Capacity Data 2019 Load & Capacity Data A report by The New York Independent System Operator, Inc. Gold Book 2019 Load & Capacity Data Report Caution and Disclaimer The contents of these materials are for information purposes and are provided “as is” without representation or warranty of any kind, including without limitation, accuracy, completeness or fitness for any particular purpose. The New York Independent System Operator, Inc. assumes no responsibility to the reader or any other party for the consequences of any errors or omissions. Released April 2019 2019 Load & Capacity Data Report NEW YORK INDEPENDENT SYSTEM OPERATOR 2019 LOAD & CAPACITY DATA TABLE OF CONTENTS OVERVIEW ............................................................................................................................. 1 SECTION I: ANNUAL ENERGY & PEAK DEMAND – HISTORICAL & FORECAST ................ 7 SECTION I ................................................................................................................................................................ 9 TABLE I-1A: NYCA BASELINE ENERGY AND DEMAND FORECASTS ............................................................................. 11 TABLE I-1B: SUMMARY OF NYCA ANNUAL ENERGY FORECASTS – GWH .................................................................... 12 TABLE I-1C: SUMMARY OF NYCA SUMMER COINCIDENT PEAK DEMAND FORECASTS - MW ........................................ 13 TABLE I-1D: SUMMARY OF NYCA WINTER COINCIDENT PEAK DEMAND FORECASTS - MW .......................................... 14 TABLE I-2: BASELINE ANNUAL ENERGY, HISTORICAL AND FORECAST ......................................................................... 15 TABLE I-3A: BASELINE SUMMER COINCIDENT PEAK DEMAND, HISTORICAL AND FORECAST ......................................... 16 TABLE I-3B: BASELINE WINTER COINCIDENT PEAK DEMAND, HISTORICAL AND FORECAST ........................................... 17 TABLE I-4A: BASELINE SUMMER NON-COINCIDENT PEAK DEMAND, HISTORICAL AND FORECAST ................................. 18 TABLE I-4B: BASELINE WINTER NON-COINCIDENT PEAK DEMAND, HISTORICAL AND FORECAST ................................... 19 TABLE I-5: BASELINE PEAK DEMAND IN G-TO-J LOCALITY, HISTORICAL AND FORECAST ............................................... 20 TABLE I-6: 90TH & 10TH PERCENTILE FORECASTS OF BASELINE ENERGY .................................................................... 21 TABLE I-7A: 90TH & 10TH PERCENTILE FORECASTS OF BASELINE SUMMER COINCIDENT PEAK DEMAND ....................... 22 TABLE I-7B: 90TH & 10TH PERCENTILE FORECASTS OF BASELINE WINTER COINCIDENT PEAK DEMAND ........................ 23 TABLE I-8A: ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND CODES & STANDARDS ENERGY IMPACTS ......................................................... 24 TABLE I-8B: ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND CODES & STANDARDS PEAK IMPACTS ............................................................. 25 TABLE I-9A: SOLAR PV NAMEPLATE CTYAPACI, BEHIND-THE-METER ...................... ................................................... 26 TABLE I-9B: SOLAR PV IMPACTS, BEHIND-THE-METER ............................................................................................. 27 TABLE I-10A: NON-SOLAR DISTRIBUTED GENERATION NAMEPLATE CAPACITY, BEHIND-THE-METER ............................. 28 TABLE I-10B: NON-SOLAR DISTRIBUTED GENERATION IMPACTS, BEHIND-THE-METER ................................................. 29 TABLE I-11A: ELECTRIC VEHICLE ENERGY USAGE FORECAST .................................................................................... 30 TABLE I-11B: ELECTRIC VEHICLE PEAK USAGE FORECAST ........................................................................................ 31 TABLE I-12A: ENERGY STORAGE NAMEPLATE CAPACITY ........................................................................................... 32 TABLE I-12B: ENERGY STORAGE ENERGY IMPACTS .................................................................................................. 33 TABLE I-12C: ENERGY STORAGE PEAK REDUCTIONS, BEHIND-THE-METER ................................................................. 34 TABLE I-13A: TOPLINE FORECAST OF ANNUAL ENERGY ............................................................................................. 35 TABLE I-13B: TOPLINE FORECAST OF COINCIDENT PEAK DEMAND ............................................................................. 36 TABLE I-13C: TOPLINE FORECAST OF NON-COINCIDENT PEAK DEMAND ..................................................................... 37 TABLE I-14: PROJECTION OF SCR AND EDRP ENROLLMENT ..................................................................................... 38 TABLE I-15: HISTORICAL NYCA SYSTEM PEAK DEMAND .......................................................................................... 39 SECTION II: CHANGES IN GENERATING FACILITIES & GENERATION SINCE THE 2018 GOLD BOOK ......................................................................................................................... 41 SECTION II ............................................................................................................................................................. 43 SECTION III: EXISTING GENERATING FACILITIES ............................................................. 47 SECTION III ........................................................................................................................................................... 49 TABLE III-1: EXISTING GENERATING FACILITIES CODES AND ABBREVIATIONS .............................................................. 51 TABLE III-2: EXISTING GENERATING FACILITIES ........................................................................................................ 52 i 2019 Load & Capacity Data Report TABLE III-3A: CAPABILITY BY ZONE AND TYPE – SUMMER 2019 .............................................................................. 72 TABLE III-3B: CAPABILITY BY ZONE AND TYPE – WINTER 2019-20........................................................................... 73 TABLE III-3C: ANNUAL NET ENERGY GENERATION BY ZONE AND TYPE – 2018 ........................................................... 74 TABLE III-3D: SCHEDULED REAL-TIME TRANSACTIONS BY CONTROL AREA AND PROXY BUS (GWH) - 2018 ................. 75 FIGURE III-1: 2018 NYCA ENERGY PRODUCTION BY ZONE ...................................................................................... 76 FIGURE III-2: 2019 NYCA SUMMER CAPABILITY BY FUEL TYPE ............................................................................... 77 FIGURE III-3: 2018 NYCA ENERGY PRODUCTION BY FUEL TYPE .............................................................................. 78 FIGURE III-4A: NYCA WIND RESOURCES – HISTORICAL INSTALLED NAMEPLATE CAPACITY ......................................... 79 FIGURE III-4B: NYCA WIND RESOURCES – HISTORICAL ENERGY PRODUCTION .......................................................... 80 SECTION IV: CHANGES IN GENERATING CAPACITY ...........................................................81 SECTION IV ........................................................................................................................................................... 83 TABLE IV-1: PROPOSED GENERATOR ADDITIONS & CRIS REQUESTS ......................................................................... 84 NOTES FOR TABLE IV-1 (PROPOSED GENERATOR ADDITIONS & CRIS REQUESTS) ...................................................... 86 TABLE IV-2: PROPOSED GENERATOR RE-RATINGS .................................................................................................... 87 TABLE IV-3: DEACTIVATED UNITS WITH UNEXPIRED CRIS RIGHTS NOT LISTED IN EXISTING GENERATING FACILITIES TABLE III-2...................................................................................................................................................................... 88 TABLE IV-4: DEACTIVATED UNITS LISTED IN EXISTING GENERATING FACILITIES TABLE III-2 ......................................... 89 TABLE IV-5: NOTICES OF PROPOSED DEACTIVATIONS AS OF MARCH 15, 2019 .......................................................... 90 SECTION V: LOAD & CAPACITY SCHEDULE ...................................................................... 91 SECTION V ............................................................................................................................................................. 93 DEFINITIONS OF LABELS ON LOAD AND CAPACITY SCHEDULE ..................................................................................... 94 TABLE V-1: SUMMARY OF PROJECTED NET CAPACITY PURCHASES FROM EXTERNAL CONTROL AREAS ......................... 95 TABLE V-2A: NYCA LOAD AND CAPACITY SCHEDULE – SUMMER CAPABILITY PERIOD................................................. 96 TABLE V-2B: NYCA LOAD AND CAPACITY SCHEDULE – WINTER CAPABILITY PERIOD .................................................. 97 NOTES FOR TABLE V-2 (LOAD AND CAPACITY SCHEDULE) .......................................................................................... 98 SECTION VI: EXISTING TRANSMISSION FACILITIES ......................................................... 99 SECTION VI ......................................................................................................................................................... 101 TABLE VI-2: MILEAGE OF EXISTING TRANSMISSION FACILITIES ................................................................................ 102 SECTION VII: PROPOSED TRANSMISSION FACILITIES
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