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Gold Book 2020 Load & Capacity Data Report

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Gold Book 2020 Load & Capacity Data Report 2020 Load & Capacity Data A report by The New York Independent System Operator, Inc. Gold Book 2020 Load & Capacity Data Report Disclaimer: The content of these materials are for information purposes and are provided “as is” without representation or warranty of any kind, including without limitation, accuracy, completeness or fitness for any particular purpose. The New York Independent System Operator, Inc. assumes no responsibility to the reader or any other party for the consequences of any errors or omissions. Released April 2020 2020 Load & Capacity Data Report | ii Special Statement Regarding the Impacts of COVID-19 Throughout the month of March and into April 2020 when this report was published, changing patterns of behavior along with reductions in commercial and industrial activity resulting from the state’s response to COVID-19 acted to reduce New York electricity consumption. Consequently, the NYISO revised baseline energy forecasts downward for 2020 and 2021. In order to provide a preliminary assessment of the resulting load impacts, the Gold Book provides a variety of load forecasts based on economic impacts that range from optimistic, with widespread resumption of life as normal during the summer of 2020, to pessimistic, with a recession lasting over a year. Due to the rapidly evolving nature of the outbreak, these forecasts reflect our perspective as of April 10, 2020. The sudden departure from historical behavioral patterns caused by New York’s response to COVID-19 is unprecedented and creates unique challenges to forecasting the state’s energy needs. As the situation evolves and more data is available, the NYISO will monitor trends as they relate to these forecasts and provide periodic updates to stakeholders. 2020 Load & Capacity Data Report | iii This page is left blank intentionally. 2020 Load & Capacity Data Report | iv 2020 Load & Capacity Data Report Table of Contents OVERVIEW ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 1 Historical and Forecast Energy Usage and Seasonal Peak Demand .......................................................................................................... 1 Generation and Other Capacity Resources .................................................................................................................................................. 3 Transmission Facilities .................................................................................................................................................................................. 5 SECTION I: ANNUAL ENERGY & PEAK DEMAND – HISTORICAL & FORECAST ........................................................................................ 7 Load Scenario Summary ............................................................................................................................................................................. 11 Table I-1a: NYCA Baseline Energy and Demand Forecasts ....................................................................................................................... 13 Figure I-1: NYCA Energy Forecasts – Annual Energy, GWh ........................................................................................................................ 14 Figure I-2: NYCA Summer Peak Forecasts – Coincident Peak, MW .......................................................................................................... 14 Figure I-3: NYCA Winter Peak Forecasts – Coincident Peak, MW ............................................................................................................. 15 Figure I-4: NYCA Baseline Peak Forecast Comparison – Coincident Peak, MW ....................................................................................... 15 Table I-1b: Summary of NYCA Baseline Annual Energy Forecasts – GWh ................................................................................................ 16 Table I-1c: Summary of NYCA Baseline Summer Coincident Peak Demand Forecasts – MW ................................................................ 17 Table I-1d: Summary of NYCA Baseline Winter Coincident Peak Demand Forecasts – MW ................................................................... 18 Table I-2: Baseline Annual Energy, Historical & Forecast .......................................................................................................................... 19 Table I-3a: Baseline Summer Coincident Peak Demand, Historical & Forecast ...................................................................................... 20 Table I-3b: Baseline Winter Coincident Peak Demand, Historical & Forecast.......................................................................................... 21 Table I-4a: Baseline Summer Non-Coincident Peak Demand, Historical & Forecast .............................................................................. 22 Table I-4b: Baseline Winter Non-Coincident Peak Demand, Historical & Forecast .................................................................................. 23 Table I-5: Baseline Peak Demand in G-to-J Locality, Historical & Forecast .............................................................................................. 24 Table I-6a: 90th Percentile Forecast of Baseline Energy due to Weather ................................................................................................. 25 Table I-6b: 10th Percentile Forecast of Baseline Energy due to Weather ................................................................................................. 26 Table I-7a: 90th Percentile Forecast of Baseline Summer Coincident Peak Demand due to Weather ................................................... 27 Table I-7b: 10th Percentile Forecast of Baseline Summer Coincident Peak Demand due to Weather ................................................... 28 Table I-7c: 90th Percentile Forecast of Baseline Winter Coincident Peak Demand due to Weather ....................................................... 29 Table I-7d: 10th Percentile Forecast of Baseline Winter Coincident Peak Demand due to Weather ...................................................... 30 Table I-8a: Energy Efficiency and Codes & Standards Energy Impacts .................................................................................................... 31 Table I-8b: Energy Efficiency and Codes & Standards Summer Peak Impacts ........................................................................................ 32 Table I-8c: Energy Efficiency and Codes & Standards Winter Peak Impacts ............................................................................................ 33 Table I-9a: Solar PV Nameplate Capacity, Behind-the-Meter ................................................................................................................... 34 Table I-9b: Solar PV Annual Energy Reductions, Behind-the-Meter .......................................................................................................... 35 Table I-9c: Solar PV Peak Reductions, Behind-the-Meter .......................................................................................................................... 36 Table I-10a: Non-Solar Distributed Generation Nameplate Capacity, Behind-the-Meter......................................................................... 37 Table I-10b: Non-Solar Distributed Generation Annual Energy Reductions, Behind-the-Meter............................................................... 38 Table I-10c: Non-Solar Distributed Generation Peak Reductions, Behind-the-Meter .............................................................................. 39 Table I-11a: Electric Vehicle Annual Energy Usage .................................................................................................................................... 40 Table I-11b: Electric Vehicle Summer Coincident Peak Demand .............................................................................................................. 41 Table I-11c: Electric Vehicle Winter Coincident Peak Demand ................................................................................................................. 42 Table I-12a: Energy Storage Nameplate Capacity...................................................................................................................................... 43 Table I-12b: Energy Storage Energy Impacts ............................................................................................................................................. 44 Table I-12c: Energy Storage Summer Coincident Peak Reductions, Behind-the-Meter .......................................................................... 45 Table I-12d: Energy Storage Winter Coincident Peak Reductions, Behind-the-Meter ............................................................................. 46 Table I-13a: Non-EV Electrification Annual Energy Usage ......................................................................................................................... 47 Table I-13b: Non-EV Electrification Summer Coincident Peak Demand .................................................................................................. 48 Table I-13c: Non-EV Electrification Winter Coincident Peak Demand ...................................................................................................... 49 Table
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