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Crude Oil: Bullish Or Bearish? +91 22 2209 7780 M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+ Research May 14, 2009 Vinay Jaising, CFA Asia-Pacific [email protected] Crude Oil: Bullish or Bearish? +91 22 2209 7780 Mayank Maheshwari • Bearish Indicators [email protected] •High Inventory levels +91 22 2209 7821 •Spare Capacity on the rise as OPEC cuts production •Bullish Economic Indicators •Upward GDP Revisions •US ISM Data and China’s PMI Index •Increased Crude Oil Import by China •Oil regaining its Negative Co-relation to the depreciating dollar •Future supply concerns keep us bullish in longer term; however we are bearish in the shorter term Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As •Most Asian equities discounting $65-US$75/bbl a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the •Asian Plays on Crude Oil: Cairn India, Australian E&Ps and CNOOC objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a •Asian Negative Plays on Crude Oil: HPCL, BPCL, IOCL and Sinopec single factor in making their investment decision. Customers of Morgan Stanley in the US can receive independent, third-party research on companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at www.morganstanley.com/equityresearch or can call 1-800-624-2063 to request a copy of this research. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to NASD/NYSE restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H May 14, 2009 Asia Energy Oil & Gas: The Bearish Indicators US Crude Oil Inventories at their Highest level since 1990, as OECD Days of Forward cover is at peak, above 60 days Demand remains weak and refiners slow production 64 400 Million 2006 2007 2008 2009 barrels 62 380 60 360 58 340 56 320 300 54 280 52 (OECD Industry Stocks/Total product demand) 260 50 Jan 2005 Jul 2005 Jan 2006 Jul 2006 Jan 2007 Jul 2007 Jan 2008 Jul 2008 Jan 2009 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: EIA Source: EIA, Morgan Stanley Research OPEC Spare Capacity rising on the back of production cuts; to Baltic Dirty Tanker Index at a 10yr low, indicating Lower Demand peak in 2009 3,500 7 OPEC Spare Capacity (LS) 10% 3,000 9% 6 Spare cap as a % of demand (RS) 8% 2,500 5 7% 2,000 6% 4 1997-2009 Average = 3.1 5% 1,500 3 4% 1,000 2 3% Spare Capacity(mb/d) 500 2% 1 % of a as demand Capacity Spare 1% 0 Current Sparecapacity 0 0% Jul-00 Jul-05 Apr-04 Apr-09 Oct-01 Oct-06 Jan-03 Jun-03 Jan-08 Jun-08 Mar-02 Mar-07 Feb-00 Feb-05 Nov-03 Nov-08 Dec-00 Aug-02 Sep-04 Dec-05 Aug-07 May-01 May-06 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009E Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research Source: IEA, EIA, Morgan Stanley Research [email protected] 2 M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H May 14, 2009 Asia Energy Crude Oil: The Bullish Indicators US ISM Index: Continues the Uptrend China PMI Index: Expands Again in April 60 ISM Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing Index 75 ISM 70 55 Manufacturing ISM Non- 53.5 65 Manufacturing 52.4 60 50 49 55 50 45 45.3 45 39904 43.7 40 39904 40 25873, 39.7 33270, 39.4 37165, 40.8 40.1 2006 2007 2008 2009 35 30072, 35.5 30 35 27395, 30.7 29342, 29.4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 25 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research Chinese Net Crude Oil Imports increased 13% YoY for the Upward GDP Revisions By MS Economist month of April 15 % 20,000 100% US China Korea Japan '000 tonnes 10 80% 7.0 5.5 15,000 60% 5 40% 10,000 0 20% -2.8 -1.8 -3.1 -3.3 0% -5 5,000 -6.0 -5.8 -20% -10 11-Jul 19-Jan 20-Mar 13-May 0 -40% Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Source: Morgan Stanley Research Crude net imports ('000 tonnes) YoY change [email protected] 3 M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H May 14, 2009 Asia Energy Asian E&P Stocks: Leveraged to Crude Prices Comments Asian E&P stocks are highly correlated to the crude in WTI Correlation with the Dollar the longer term • High correlation in long term – E&P 100% 90 140 87 stocks exhibit a higher correlation 80% with WTI prices in the long term. 84 120 60% 81 100 • In the recent past, Oil has again 40% 78 80 started its negative co-relation to the 75 20% depreciating dollar. 72 60 0% 69 • 40 Australian stocks and Cairn India 66 -20% 20 are not only highly correlated in the 63 Trade Weighted dollar (LA) WTI (RA) long term, but also are most -40% 60 0 sensitive to change in oil prices. 1yr 2yr 5yr Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Feb-07 May-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 -60% AWE OSH STO ONGC CNOOC Woodside Sinopec Petrochina Cairn BPT • Indian State refiners have a negative correlation with crude oil prices due to negative marketing Sensitivity to The Dollar and Crude Oil Crude Oil Forward Curve- In a Contango; Though Narrowing margins on selling of MS, HSD, % Ch. in EPS for % Ch. in EPS for 1% Implied Oil Price LPG and Kerosene. Name US$/bbl 1$/bbl Ch in WTI Ch in USD (WTI $/bbl) 110 AWE 2.7% -0.8% 34 100 Consensus Cairn 2.0% 2.3% 80 90 CNOOC 3.0% 1.1% 83 MS Estimates Company Implied Oil Price (WTI) PetroChina 2.0% 1.5% 60 80 Woodside Petroleum $66/bbl Woodside 2.1% 0.1% 66 Sinopec 2.1% -0.5% 67 Santos $64/bbl 70 Forward Curve Oil Search Ltd. $58/bbl ONGC 2.2% 2.1% 30 AWE Ltd. $34/bbl Inpex 1.6% 2.1% 68 60 Beach Petroleum Ltd $55/bbl Cairn India Ltd. $80/bbl 50 ONGC Ltd. $30/bbl 40 CNOOC $73/bbl Petrochina $60/bbl Sinopec $67/bbl Nov-2009 Nov-2010 Nov-2011 Nov-2012 Nov-2013 Nov-2014 Nov-2015 Nov-2016 Inpex $68/bbl May-2009 May-2010 May-2011 May-2012 May-2013 May-2014 May-2015 May-2016 May-2017 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research [email protected] 4 M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H May 14, 2009 Asia Energy Asia Pacific Oil & Gas: Prefer Integrated Players India Oil and Gas: Reliance Industries (RELI.BO, Rs1,958, PRICE TARGET Rs2,286) • The company is at an inflection point with the commissioning of its RPL refinery and startup of its Gas production and profits doubling in the next two years. We estimate RIL to be FCF positive in F2010 with cash earnings increasing from US$4.5bn in F2009 to US$6.6bn in F2010 and US$8.9bn in F2011. OIL SEARCH (OSH.AX, A$5.24, PRICE TARGET A$7.00) • OSH remains the cheapest exposure to PNG LNG project in the Aussie market and is presently trading at a 56% discount to our valuation. Compare this to Santos, where we estimate that PNG LNG is fully priced plus most of the more risky Gladstone LNG project. Caltex being a refiner loses in a falling refiner margins environment, amid regional capacity expansion. SK ENERGY (096770.KS, KRW1,095,000, PRICE TARGET KRW125,000) • SK Energy is our top pick in the Korean Oil & Gas space due to its integrated nature, greater earnings upside expected from E&P production volume increase, and full-year earnings effect from the upgrading facility (RFCC) (completed in 2H08). Despite declining Asia GRM assumption, we believe the company’s earnings from refining and E&P to withstand and outperform, relative to its Korean peers. NIPPON OIL (5001.T, ¥572, PRICE TARGET ¥630) • We remain cautious on Japanese refiners in the wake of falling GRMs, however we prefer Nippon Oil as its merger with Nippon Mining Holdings to generate cost and capacity reductions much larger than other refiners in Japan, and low P/B ratios (<1.0x) makes it a top choice.
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