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China Petroleum and Chemical (H) (0386.HK) Product Pricing Reform

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China Petroleum and Chemical (H) (0386.HK) Product Pricing Reform June 5, 2007 China Petroleum and Chemical (H) (0386.HK) June 5, 2007 COMPANY UPDATE China Petroleum and Chemical (H) (0386.HK) Sell Product pricing reform stalled; potential downstream earnings risk What's changed Investment Profile: China Petroleum and Chemical Our recent meeting with the NDRC suggests that the much anticipated Low High product pricing reform has been deferred indefinitely. While the NDRC’s Growth Growth Returns * Returns * longer term goal is still toward reform and pricing liberalization, it is in a Multiple Multiple near-term quandary over how to manage domestic gasoline and diesel Volatility Volatility prices. According to the NDRC, the cost-plus pricing mechanism (crude Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th cost + processing cost + some fixed margin) conceptualized early this year 0386.HK Asia Pacific Energy Peer Group Average is not being enforced due to a number of issues including 1) concerns over * Returns = Return on Capital For a complete description of the investment profile measures please refer to potential negative public opinion over price hikes; 2) difficulty determining the disclosure section of this document. appropriate benchmark crude oil price given different grades of crude used by different refineries. As such the NDRC has reverted to the former Key data Current Price (HK$) 8.78 mechanism of gradual price adjustment, which we think presents a 12 month price target (HK$) 6.35 potential risk to domestic refining margins if crude oil prices remain high. Market cap (HK$ mn / US$ mn) 761,247.4 / 97,533.9 Foreign ownership (%) -- Implications 12/06 12/07E 12/08E 12/09E EPS (Rmb) 0.62 0.71 0.75 0.68 We believe the market remains overly optimistic about domestic product EPS growth (%) 30.0 14.4 5.0 (9.5) pricing reform. We believe the strong refining margins in 1Q07 EPS (diluted) (Rmb) 0.62 0.71 0.75 0.68 EPS (basic, pre-ex) (Rmb 0.62 0.71 0.75 0.68 (US$5.95/bbl) are unsustainable and due to a temporary pull back in crude P/E (X) 13.8 12.1 11.5 12.7 P/B (X) 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.8 oil prices. We expect a significant correction in 2Q07 refining margins. EV/EBITDA (X) 5.0 6.9 6.8 7.0 While we are not changing our earnings estimates at the moment, we Dividend yield (%) 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.0 ROE (%) 22.1 21.3 18.9 14.9 believe there could be downside risks to our near-term earnings estimates for Sinopec’s refining and marketing business. Price performance chart Valuation 9 60 8 55 At 7.5X 2008E EV/DACF, Sinopec is currently trading at a premium to CNOOC (6.5X), PetroChina (6.8X) and the supermajors (6.7X). The stock is 7 50 also at the high end of its historical trading range based on various 6 45 measures. Our 12-month share price target is HK$6.35 based on our DCF 5 40 analysis, implying 28% downside potential. 4 35 3 30 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Key risks The key upside risks are 1) product price reform and 2) additional China Petroleum and Chemical (H) (L) MSCI China (R) significant upstream discoveries. Share price performance (%) 3 month 6 month 12 month Absolute 54.9 34.5 97.3 INVESTMENT LIST MEMBERSHIP Rel. to MSCI China 29.9 6.6 20.3 Asia Pacific Sell List Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 6/05/2007 close. Coverage View: Neutral China: Oil Kelvin Koh, CFA The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. does and seeks to do business with +852-2978-1218 | [email protected] Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should Chris Shiu, CFA be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect +86(10)6627-3462 | [email protected] Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as Eric Jia only a single factor in making their investment decision. Customers in +86(10)6627-3126 | [email protected] Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited the US can receive independent, third-party research on companies covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at www.independentresearch.gs.com or call 1-866-727-7000. For Reg AC certification, see the text preceding the disclosures. For other important disclosures go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not required to take the NASD/NYSE analyst exam. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Global Investment Research Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 1 June 5, 2007 China Petroleum and Chemical (H) (0386.HK) China Petroleum and Chemical (H): Summary financials Profit model (Rmb mn) 12/06 12/07E 12/08E 12/09E Balance sheet (Rmb mn) 12/06 12/07E 12/08E 12/09E Total revenue 1,076,402.0 1,021,053.3 1,026,593.9 1,074,135.2 Cash & equivalents 8,088.0 8,179.6 10,452.9 12,244.3 Cost of goods sold (903,189.9) (833,646.7) (833,425.4) (882,165.2) Accounts receivable 24,347.0 28,396.7 28,550.8 29,873.0 SG&A (53,820.1) (51,052.7) (51,329.7) (53,706.8) Inventory 93,436.0 111,896.3 112,503.4 117,713.4 R&D (1,700.0) (1,700.0) (1,700.0) (1,700.0) Other current assets 19,596.0 24,119.2 24,246.7 25,340.1 Other operating profit/(expense) 363.0 363.0 363.0 363.0 Total current assets 145,467.0 172,591.8 175,753.8 185,170.9 EBITDA 118,055.0 135,016.9 140,501.8 136,926.3 Net PP&E 366,475.0 449,598.5 520,445.4 580,047.1 Depreciation & amortization (34,235.0) (37,908.8) (44,961.0) (48,579.7) Net intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBIT 83,820.0 97,108.2 95,540.8 88,346.6 Total investments 14,199.0 18,849.0 19,919.0 20,869.0 Interest income 555.0 263.1 298.5 359.5 Other long-term assets 85,649.0 77,304.0 76,337.3 73,206.9 Interest expense (7,437.0) (8,104.5) (9,364.5) (10,204.5) Total assets 611,790.0 718,343.3 792,455.4 859,293.9 Income/(loss) from uncons. subs. 947.0 900.0 820.0 700.0 Others 1,038.0 1,100.0 250.0 250.0 Accounts payable 52,125.0 64,340.3 64,512.7 67,500.3 Pretax profits 78,923.0 91,266.7 87,544.9 79,451.6 Short-term debt 58,760.0 58,760.0 58,760.0 58,760.0 Income tax (23,515.0) (27,836.4) (21,010.8) (19,068.4) Other current liabilities 99,917.0 103,134.2 100,897.9 104,432.8 Minorities (1,496.0) (1,750.0) (1,750.0) (1,750.0) Total current liabilities 210,802.0 226,234.6 224,170.7 230,693.1 Long-term debt 109,065.0 145,765.0 165,765.0 175,765.0 Net income pre-preferred dividends 53,912.0 61,680.4 64,784.1 58,633.2 Other long-term liabilities 7,134.0 7,134.0 7,134.0 7,134.0 Preferred dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total long-term liabilities 116,199.0 152,899.0 172,899.0 182,899.0 Net income (pre-exceptionals) 53,912.0 61,680.4 64,784.1 58,633.2 Total liabilities 327,001.0 379,133.6 397,069.7 413,592.1 Post-tax exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net income 53,912.0 61,680.4 64,784.1 58,633.2 Common stock & premium 104,774.0 104,774.0 104,774.0 104,774.0 Other common equity 158,071.0 210,741.6 265,167.7 313,733.8 EPS (basic, pre-except) (Rmb) 0.62 0.71 0.75 0.68 Total common equity 262,845.0 315,515.6 369,941.7 418,507.8 EPS (basic, post-except) (Rmb) 0.62 0.71 0.75 0.68 Minority interest 21,944.0 23,694.0 25,444.0 27,194.0 EPS (diluted, post-except) (Rmb) 0.62 0.71 0.75 0.68 DPS (Rmb) 0.15 0.18 0.19 0.17 Total liabilities & equity 611,790.0 718,343.2 792,455.4 859,293.9 Dividend payout ratio (%) 24.1 25.0 25.0 25.0 Free cash flow yield (%) (2.9) (3.7) (1.2) (0.0) BVPS (Rmb) 3.03 3.64 4.27 4.83 Growth & margins (%) 12/06 12/07E 12/08E 12/09E Ratios 12/06 12/07E 12/08E 12/09E Sales growth 29.3 (5.1) 0.5 4.6 ROE (%) 22.1 21.3 18.9 14.9 EBITDA growth 18.2 14.4 4.1 (2.5) ROA (%) 9.3 9.3 8.6 7.1 EBIT growth 22.8 15.9 (1.6) (7.5) ROACE (%) 14.3 14.1 12.8 10.6 Net income growth 30.0 14.4 5.0 (9.5) Inventory days 37.0 45.0 49.1 47.6 EPS growth 30.0 14.4 5.0 (9.5) Receivables days 7.8 9.4 10.1 9.9 Gross margin 16.1 18.4 18.8 17.9 Payable days 21.4 25.5 28.2 27.3 EBITDA margin 11.0 13.2 13.7 12.7 Net debt/equity (%) 60.8 62.2 57.9 53.1 EBIT margin 7.8 9.5 9.3 8.2 Interest cover - EBIT (X) 12.2 12.4 10.5 9.0 Valuation 12/06 12/07E 12/08E 12/09E Cash flow statement (Rmb mn) 12/06 12/07E 12/08E 12/09E Net income pre-preferred dividends 53,912.0 61,680.4 64,784.1 58,633.2 P/E (analyst) (X) 13.8 12.1 11.5 12.7 D&A add-back 34,235.0 37,908.8 44,961.0 48,579.7 P/B (X) 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.8 Minorities interests add-back 1,496.0 1,750.0 1,750.0 1,750.0 EV/EBITDA (X) 5.0 6.9 6.8 7.0 Net inc/(dec) working capital (700.0) (11,600.6) (2,952.6) (1,103.2) Dividend yield (%) 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.0 Other operating cash flow 6,907.0 3,491.5 4,380.0 4,410.0 Cash flow from operations 95,850.0 93,230.0 112,922.5 112,269.8 Capital expenditures (78,565.0) (112,126.1) (114,841.1) (105,051.1) Acquisitions (25,542.0) (3,500.0) 0.0 0.0 Divestitures 717.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cash flow from investments (103,390.0) (115,626.1) (114,841.1) (105,051.1) Dividends paid (common & pref) (11,271.0) (14,212.7) (15,808.1) (15,427.2) Inc/(dec) in debt 12,276.0 25,000.0 20,000.0 10,000.0 Common stock issuance (repurchase) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other financing cash flows 187.0 11,700.0 0.0 0.0 Cash flow from financing 1,192.0 22,487.3 4,191.9 (5,427.2) Total cash flow (6,348.0) 91.2 2,273.3 1,791.5 Note: Last actual year may include reported and estimated data.
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