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IBEF Presentataion OIL and GAS For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org November 2017 Table of Content Executive Summary……………….….…….3 Advantage India…………………..….……...4 Market Overview and Trends………..……..6 Porters Five Forces Analysis.….…..……...28 Strategies Adopted……………...……….…30 Growth Drivers……………………..............33 Opportunities…….……….......…………..…40 Success Stories………….......…..…...…....43 Useful Information……….......………….….46 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . In FY17, India had 234.5 MMTPA of refining capacity, making it the 2nd largest refiner in Asia. By the end of Second largest refiner in 2017, the oil refining capacity of India is expected to rise and reach more than 310 million tonnes. Private Asia companies own about 38.21 per cent of total refining capacity World’s fourth-largest . India’s energy demand is expected to double to 1,516 Mtoe by 2035 from 723.9 Mtoe in 2016. Moreover, the energy consumer country’s share in global primary energy consumption is projected to increase by 2-folds by 2035 Fourth-largest consumer . In 2016-17, India consumed 193.745 MMT of petroleum products. In 2017-18, up to October, the figure stood of oil and petroleum at 115.579 MMT. products . India was 3rd largest consumer of crude oil and petroleum products in the world in 2016. LNG imports into the country accounted for about one-fourth of total gas demand, which is estimated to further increase by two times, over next five years. To meet this rising demand the country plans to increase its LNG import capacity to 50 million tonnes in the coming years. Fourth-largest LNG . India increasingly relies on imported LNG; the country is the fourth largest LNG importer and accounted for importer in 2016 5.68 per cent of global imports. India imported 18.787 MMT of LNG during 2016-17, in comparison to16.217 MMT in 2015-16. LNG imports in 2017-18, up to September, were 9.39 MMT. Notes: MMTPA - Million Metric Tonnes Per Annum, Mtoe – Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent; mbpd – Million Barrels Per Day; Figures mentioned in this slide is as per latest data available Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas 3 Oil and Gas For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org Oil and Gas ADVANTAGE INDIA ADVANTAGE INDIA . India is the world’s 4th largest energy . The University of Petroleum and Energy consumer; oil and gas account for Studies in Dehradun, Uttarakhand, is 35.61 per cent of total energy Asia’s 1st and only energy university consumption in India . Indian Oil is going to invest Rs 1.8 trillion . Demand for primary energy in India is over the next five to seven years to to increase 3-fold by 2035 to 1,516 expand its refining capacity. million tonnes of oil ADVANTAGE INDIA . The government allows 100 per cent . Government has enacted various Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in policies such as the New Exploration upstream and private sector refining Licensing Policy (NELP) and Coal Bed projects Methane (CBM) policy to encourage investments . The FDI limit for public sector refining projects has been raised to 49 per cent . New domestic natural gas pricing without any disinvestment or dilution of guidelines has been enforced on 10th domestic equity in the existing PSUs January 2014 Note: mbpd – Million Barrels Per Day, bcm – Billion Cubic Metres, F – Forecast; Figures mentioned in this slide is as per latest data available Source: Business Monitor International (BMI), World Oil Outlook 2012, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, BP Statistical Review 2015, 5 Oil and Gas For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org Oil and Gas MARKET OVERVIEW AND TRENDS STATE-OWNED COMPANIES DOMINATE OIL AND GAS IN INDIA . India became the 3rd largest energy consumer in 2015 and continued to remain so in 2016. In FY17, oil production in the country reached 36.008 million metric tonnes as compared to 36.942 million metric tonnes in FY16. In 2017-18, up to September, oil production stood at 18.025 million metric tonnes. As of 2016, the country had 600 million metric tonnes (MMT) of proven oil reserves . India had 1.2 million cubic metres of proven gas reserves at the end of 2016 and produced 30.84 bcm of gas in FY17 which is expected to rise and reach 34.119 bcm by the end of 2017. State-owned ONGC dominate the upstream segment. Upstream segment - exploration and . It is the largest upstream company in Exploration and Production (EandP) segment, production accounting for approximately 61.5 per cent of the country’s total oil output (FY17). IOCL operates a 11,214 km network of crude, gas and product pipelines, with a capacity of Midstream Indian Oil and segment – storage 1.6 mbpd of oil and 10 mmscmd of gas Gas sector and transportation . This is around 30 per cent of the nation’s total pipeline network . IOCL is the largest company, controls 10 out of 22 Indian refineries, with a combined capacity of 1.31 mbpd Downstream segment – refining, . Reliance launched India’s 1st privately owned refinery in 1999 and has gained considerable processing and market share (30 per cent) marketing . Essar’s Vadinar refinery has a capacity of 20 mmtpa, currently accounting for around 10 per cent of total refining capacity Notes: bcm – Billion Cubic Metres, tcf – Trillion Cubic Feet, mbpd – Million Barrels Per Day, mmscmd - Million Metric Standard Cubic Metre Per Day, tcm -- trillions of cubic meters, mmtpa - - million metric tons per annum Source: BP Statistical Review 2015, US Energy Information Administration, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Aranca Research 7 Oil and Gas For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN INDIA (1/2) . Oil consumption has expanded at a CAGR of 2.98 per cent during Oil consumption in India (2008-17) (mbpd) FY2008–17E to reach 4.13 mbpd by 2017. Due to the expected strong growth in demand, India’s dependency 4.50 on oil imports is likely to increase further 4.00 . Rapid economic growth is leading to greater outputs, which in turn is 4.13 increasing the demand of oil for production and transportation 4.00 4.00 3.50 3.85 3.73 . With rising income levels, demand for automobile is estimated to 3.69 increase, in turn leading to augmented demand for oil and gas 3.49 3.00 3.32 3.24 3.08 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E Note: F – Forecast, CAGR – Compound Annual Growth Rate, mbpd – Million Barrels Per Day, mn bbl – Million Barrels, E- Estimated Source: Ministry of Oil and Natural Gas, BP Statistical Review 2015 BMI Forecasts, Aranca Research 8 Oil and Gas For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN INDIA (2/2) . In FY17, total crude oil imports were valued at US$ 80.3 billion as ImportsVisakhapatnam and domestic port oil trafficproduction (million in Indiatonnes) (mbpd ) compared to US$ 70 billion in FY16. In FY17, imports accounted for 82 per cent of the country’s total oil demand. In FY18, up to 6.00 September, Crude Oil Production and Imports stood at 0.36 and 2.14 mbpd respectively. In March 2017, the Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserve Ltd (ISPRL) 5.00 4.27 and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) of UAE signed an 4.05 agreement, to fill up 0.81 MMT or 5,860,000 million barrels of crude 3.69 3.78 3.79 oil at ISPRL storage facility at Mangalore, Karnataka. 4.00 3.43 3.27 3.18 . According to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the demand for oil across the world will grow by 1.26 million 3.00 barrels per day (mb/d). Moreover, majority of the oil demand across the globe is expected to originate from India. 2.14 2.00 1.00 0.67 0.75 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.00 0.36 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY181 Oil Production (mbpd) Oil imports(mbpd) Note: F – Forecast, mbpd – Million Barrels Per Day, FY181-Up to September Source: Ministry of Oil and Natural Gas, BMI forecasts, Aranca Research 9 Oil and Gas For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org GAS SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN INDIA (1/2) . India’s gas consumption has increased at a CAGR of 2.3 per cent Proven reservesVisakhapatnam and total gasport consumption traffic (million in tonnes)the country (bcm) between 2007 and 2016. Demand is not likely to simmer down anytime soon, given strong 1600 economic growth and rising urbanisation. Gas consumption is 1,427 projected to reach 216 bcm by 2021-22. 1400 1,330 1,355 1,278 1,252 1,227 1200 1,155 1,149 1,090 1,055 1000 800 600 400 200 40 42 52 63 64 59 51 51 47 49 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Gas Consumption Proven Gas Reserves Note: F – Forecast, bcm – Billion Cubic Metres, CAGR – Compound Annual Growth Rate Figures mentioned in this slide is as per latest data available Source: PPAC, BP Statistical Review 2015, Ministry of Oil and Natural Gas 2014, Aranca Research; 10 Oil and Gas For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org GAS SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN INDIA (2/2) . Domestic production accounts for more than three-quarter of the Domestic gas production and imports (bcm) country’s total gas consumption . Demand is expected to increase due to higher economic growth, 70 ensure less dependency on imported crude and a desire to use cleaner fuel 18 60 13 .
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