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Niger Food Security Update, October 2008

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Niger Food Security Update, October 2008 NIGER Food Security Update October 2008 • Harvesting and stock‐building activities and the crop Figure 1. Current food security assessment, October- marketing season continue. Preliminary crop performance December 2008 figures for this growing season are well above the five‐ average (2003‐2007), but reflect localized pockets of production shortfalls where the season got off to a late start and ended earlier than usual. Preliminary estimates by the joint CILSS/FEWS NET/FAO/Government of Niger mission estimated grain production will be significantly higher, or up by 37 percent from last year and 33 percent from the five‐year average, respectively. • On the whole, the food situation is normal after the good grain harvest, which should meet the food grain needs of the country’s entire population. However, ensuring a smooth flow of food commodities from surplus production zones to deficit areas is a top priority. • Food availability on markets across the country has been Source: FEWS NET Niger improving since the end of September, with prices Click on www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale for more information on trending downwards. However, prices are still running high the FEWS NET food insecurity scale. compared with last year and the average for the same time of year. • Forage reserves in pastoral areas are helping to satisfy the needs of livestock longer than usual. However, some parts of the country (Banibangou in Ouallam department and localized areas of Tanout, Tchirozérine, Tchintabaraden and Mainé Soroa departments) are in need of animal feed supplements (bran and cottonseed) due to this year’s poor pasture production in certain localized areas. • As far as the state of nutrition is concerned, due to good food availability and lower food prices, the number of malnourished children admitted to therapeutic feeding programs is on the decline. Seasonal calendar and critical events timeline Source: FEWS NET Niger FEWS NET Niger FEWS NET Washington Niamey 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United State Agency for Tel: 00 227 20 73 43 20 Washington DC 20006 International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] [email protected] www.fews.net/niger NIGER Food Security Update October 2008 Current food situation This year marks Niger’s third consecutive good harvest of rainfed grain crops. Grain production for the 2008/09 season is above‐average in virtually all parts of the country. In general, right now, there is adequate household food availability, which is helping to diversify the household diet, particularly in the country’s southern farm belt classified as a generally food‐secure area. However, there are reports of grain production shortfalls in all farming districts of regional capital areas (Maradi, Dosso, Zinder, Tillabery and Tahoua) due to poor growing season conditions (a late start of season and early end of season) and in departments with structural deficits such as Arlit, Bilma, Tchirozérine (Agadez), Ouallam, Tillabery (Tillabery region), Tchintabaren, Abalak (Tahoua region), Mainé Soroa, Nguigmi and Diffa (Diffa region). The combined effects of planting delays, flooding problems and the shorter than usual rainy season created a deficit of more than 10,000 metric tons in Doutchi department (Dosso region), in the country’s farm belt. These deficits are likely to have major negative effects on the food security of households in affected areas in the event of low supplies on grain markets or a sharp rise in prices. Ensuring a smooth flow of food commodities from surplus food production zones to deficit areas is a top priority. Moreover, with the rainy season ending prematurely, the condition of pasture resources in pastoral areas across parts of the Agadez, Northern Tahoua and Diffa regions is mediocre. However, fattened animals are in very good shape and livestock prices (particularly for large animals) are running above the five‐year average (for 2003‐2007), significantly boosting the income and grain access of agropastoralists. Thus, certain parts of the country are reportedly moderately food‐insecure. However, this is an improvement over last month when these same areas were categorized as highly food‐insecure. Food security conditions are unchanged in other areas classified as moderately food‐insecure, particularly in departments with structural deficits in the far eastern and western reaches of the country (Gouré, Mainé Soroa, Nguigmi and Ouallam) and in northern departments plagued by the armed conflict in that area. In fact, with the continuing armed attacks in this area, Niger’s northern zone has been placed on a state of alert, with controls and restrictions on the movement of travelers and goods. As far as the state of nutrition is concerned, this time of year is often marked by an improvement in nutritional conditions, as reflected in the smaller numbers of admissions of malnourished children between the age of 6 and 59 months to therapeutic feeding programs. This information is obtained through household surveys conducted during this time of year (survey on the nutrition and survival of children under 5 years of age or surveys of the food and nutrition situation at sentinel sites) since 2006 noting or showing lower rates of malnutrition compared with the lean period (June through September). Thus, 14,604 new cases of malnutrition, including 4,389 cases of severe and 10,215 cases of moderate malnutrition, were reported in October of this year, compared with a cumulative total of 15,627 cases of malnutrition for the month of September, which is an overall seven percent drop from the previous month. In general, reported cases of malnutrition are down 79 percent and 29 percent, respectively, from October 2005 and October 2006 but up 68 percent from October 2007. This rise in malnutrition from the same time last year could be attributable to the higher prices of staple commodities and their impact on the situation of poor rural and urban households across the country. This deterioration in the state of nutrition could also be a result of new outbreaks of diseases such as cholera (in the Maradi and Tahoua regions), bloody diarrhea and malaria, whose high season is still underway. A comparison with the average for the last four years shows an overall 48 percent decline in malnutrition. The drop in the number of cases of malnutrition reported this past October is a result of good food availability, which helps diversify the household diet and improve the state of child health and nutrition. Another possible explanation for the decline in the number of admissions of malnourished children to therapeutic feeding centers is the increased harvesting activities, which is keeping mothers occupied and, thus, preventing them from taking part in nutrition programs. Pending release of the findings by the survey of household vulnerability to food insecurity, based on the grain balance sheet, an estimated 27 percent of the country’s population (3,928,406 individuals) is unable to meet its food needs with on‐ farm production, which makes this segment of the population dependent on markets on which prices are running rather high. The government is in the process of formulating an assistance program for affected population groups in conjunction with its technical and financial partners and, more specifically, an assistance program for the growing of irrigated crops. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 NIGER Food Security Update October 2008 Harvest forecast and grain balance sheet for 2008/2009 Preliminary estimates by the joint CILSS/FAO/FEWS NET/Government of Niger pre‐harvest assessment mission conducted in Niger over the period from October 13th through October 17th tentatively put gross grain production for 2008/09 at 4,625,540 metric tons, 37 percent above the 2007 production figure and 33 percent above the average production figure for the last five years. This gross production figure breaks down into 4,492,040 MT of coarse grains (millet, sorghum, corn and fonio), 8,775 MT of wheat and 78,000 MT of rice. The good harvest forecast is attributable to the pattern of regular, evenly distributed rainfall, even with the rains ending earlier than usual, and other factors such as the larger area planted with millet and sorghum for this growing season compared with last season (10 percent larger in the case of millet and eight percent larger in the case of sorghum) and the formulation of special strategies for coping with the problem of climate change (desertification). This puts per capita grain production at 323 kg, compared with 243 kg in 2007 and a five‐year average of 272 kg. Thus, on the whole, the harvest should be above‐average and, in general, should be sufficient to ensure the necessary 231 kg per capita to meet the food grain needs of the country’s entire population. Total grain availability from on‐farm production is 3,905,009 MT, which is more than enough to satisfy human consumption needs, estimated at 3,303,742 MT, leaving a 601,267 MT surplus. Considering all available resources, namely net output, opening inventories and imports, and all types of uses in terms of consumption needs, closing inventories and exports, there is a net surplus of 751,383 MT, which should ensure an apparent per capita grain availability of 303 kg for 2008/09, which is 31 percent above the official consumption standard used in Niger to estimate needs. However, this surplus is very unevenly distributed at the country level, where there are reports of large localized deficits, particularly in structurally deficit areas of the north and farming areas in which the growing season did not go well. These deficits are likely to have major negative effects on the food security of households in affected areas, particularly if grain markets malfunction once supplies run out or in the event of a sharp rise in prices.
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