Europe in the Face of US-China Rivalry Edited by: Mario Esteban and Miguel Otero-Iglesias along with Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova, Alice Ekman, Lucrezia Poggetti, Björn Jerdén, John Seaman, Tim Summers and Justyna Szczudlik A Report by the European Think-tank Network on China (ETNC) January 2020 Ι I Δ I Ο E Σ R Europe in the Face of US-China Rivalry Edited by: Mario Esteban and Miguel Otero-Iglesias along with Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova, Alice Ekman, Lucrezia Poggetti, Björn Jerdén, John Seaman, Tim Summers and Justyna Szczudlik A Report by the European Think-tank Network on China (ETNC) January 2020 © French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), © Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS), © The Swedish Institute of International Affairs © 2020 Real Instituto Elcano, C/ Príncipe de Vergara, 51 28006 Madrid www.realinstitutoelcano.org ISBN: 978-84-92 983-21-6 Depósito Legal: M-2497-2020 CONTENTS FOREWORD 7 LIST OF INSTITUTIONS CONTRIBUTING TO ETNC 11 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 15 INTRODUCTION 19 Miguel Otero-Iglesias & Mario Esteban AUSTRIA AND THE GROWING US-CHINESE RIVALRY: 35 FROM COLD WAR NEUTRALITY TO EUROPEAN SOLIDARITY? Adam Urosevic THE CZECH REPUBLIC’S PRAGMATIC CHINA POLICY: 41 BALANCING BETWEEN THE EU AND THE US Rudolf Fürst ‘AMERICA FIRST’: DENMARK’S STRATEGIC NAVIGATION 49 IN THE ERA OF US-CHINESE RIVALRY Andreas Bøje Forsby FINLAND’S RELATIONS WITH CHINA AND THE US 57 Bart Gaens & Jyrki Kallio FRANCE AND US-CHINA TENSIONS: 67 BOLSTERING MULTILATERALISM AND A MORE AUTONOMOUS EUROPE John Seaman GERMANY: NO PIVOT TO CHINA 75 Jan Weidenfeld GRECO-US TIES DEEPER THAN SINO-GREEK RELATIONS 83 Plamen Tonchev HUNGARY: THE PEACOCK'S DANCE 91 Tamas Matura ITALY: BETWEEN THE EURO-ATLANTIC ALLIANCE 99 AND THE PULL OF CHINESE MONEY Nicola Casarini LATVIA: BALANCING EU DEVOTION WITH A STRONG 107 TRANSATLANTIC RELIANCE Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova AIMING TO AVOID PAINFUL DILEMMAS: 115 THE NETHERLANDS AND US-CHINESE RIVALRY Frans-Paul van der Putten & Monika Sie Dhian Ho POLAND: MANOEUVRING BETWEEN THE US AND EU 123 WHILE NOT DECOUPLING FROM CHINA Justyna Szczudlik PORTUGAL, CHINA AND THE US: 131 A ‘UNIVERSAL’ STANCE TO GET ALONG WITH BOTH POWERS Carlos Rodrigues & Jorge Tavares da Silva ROMANIA’S RELATIONS WITH THE US AND CHINA: 139 HARD STRATEGIC CHOICES IN TOUGH TIMES Iulia Monica Oehler-Şincai SLOVAKIA: A COUNTRY BETWEEN EAST AND WEST 147 Gabriela Pleschová & Richard Q. Turcsányi SPAIN LONGS FOR A STRONGER EUROPE IN THE FACE OF 155 US-CHINA ANTAGONISM Mario Esteban & Miguel Otero-Iglesias LITTLE TO CHEER ABOUT: 163 SWEDEN IN THE FACE OF US-CHINESE RIVALRY Björn Jerdén BETTER THE DEVIL YOU KNOW? 171 US-CHINA STRATEGIC RIVALRY AND THE UK’S CHINA POLICY Tim Summers THE EU’S REACTIVE APPROACH TO RISING TENSION BETWEEN 179 THE US AND CHINA Bruno Hellendorff & Tim Nicholas Rühlig FOREWORD FOREWORD The European Think-tank Network on China (ETNC) is a gathering of China experts from a selection of European research institutes. It is devoted to the policy-oriented study of Chinese foreign policy and relations between China and European countries as well as China and the EU. It facilitates regular exchanges among participating researchers with a view to deepening the understanding within the European policy and research community and the broader public of how Europe, as a complex set of actors, relates with China and how China’s development and evolving global role is likely to impact the future of Europe. The network’s discussions and analyses take a decidedly ‘bottom-up’ approach, accounting for the various aspects of bilateral relations between European countries and China, and the points of convergence and divergence among EU member states in order to examine EU-China relations in a realistic and comprehensive way. The network was first launched on the initiative of the Elcano Royal Institute and the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri) in Brussels on 6 November 2014. This meeting brought together experts from eleven EU member states, as well as observers from EU institutions. The ETNC members decided to meet in a different capital every six months and the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) joined Elcano and Ifri in their efforts to move the project forward. The network now counts members from 21 research institutes in as many countries, and each participates on the basis of equality. ETNC strives for independent policy research and analysis and, since its inception, is entirely funded by its participating members. The topics treated in ETNC reports are debated and decided upon collectively by its members. The views and analysis provided in each chapter are the sole responsibility of the signed author or authors and do not in any way represent the views of all ETNC members, participating institutes, nor the institutes with which the authors themselves are affiliated. The editing of this year’s report has been led by the Elcano Royal Institute, with editorial review provided from Ifri, MERICS, the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), The Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House), The Swedish Institute of International Affairs (UI) and the Latvian Institute of International Affairs (LIIA), with active participation from all ETNC members. Preparatory work was conducted during meetings in May 2019 at the Institute of International Economic Relations (IIER) in Athens and in October 2019 at The Netherlands Institute of International Relations (Clingendael) in The Hague. The final chapters were submitted in November 2019. Previous ETNC Reports: • Mapping Europe-China Relations: A bottom-up approach (November 2015) • Europe and China's New Silk Roads (December 2016) • Chinese Investment in Europe: A country-level approach (December 2017) • Political Values in Europe-China Relations (December 2018) 7 LIST OF INSTITUTIONS CONTRIBUTING TO ETNC LIST OF INSTITUTIONS CONTRIBUTING TO ETNC Coordinating institutions • Elcano Royal Institute, Spain • French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), France • Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS), Germany Participating institutions • Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy (AIES), Austria • Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations, Belgium • Institute for International Relations (IIR), Czech Republic • Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS), Denmark • Finnish Institute for International Affairs (FIIA), Finland • Institute for International Economic Relations (IIER), Greece • Corvinus University of Budapest, Hungary • Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), Italy • Latvian Institute of International Affairs (LIIA), Latvia • The Netherlands Institute for International Relations, ‘Clingendael’, The Netherlands • Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI), Norway • Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), Poland • University of Aveiro, Portugal • Institute for World Economy, Romanian Academy, Romania • Central European Institute of Asian Studies (CEIAS), Slovakia • The Swedish Institute of International Affairs (UI), Sweden • Swiss Forum on Foreign Policy (Foraus), Switzerland • The Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House, United Kingdom 11 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The European Think Tank Network on China (ETNC) has devoted its fifth year of meetings and research to analyse –from a national, bottom-up approach– how the EU is responding to increased US-Chinese geopolitical rivalry. This report contains 18 country chapters, all from EU member states, and a further one focused on the EU’s perspective on Europe’s difficult balancing act between the US, a long-term strategic and economic partner, and China, the EU’s second most important market and, probably, the next economic superpower. The evidence presented in this report shows how US unilateralism and Chinese assertiveness have triggered a rethinking of the EU’s strategic landscape. Despite the differences between EU member states, its key finding is that all the countries analysed are in a similar position. They all consider the US their most important ally and they all depend on its military protection, but they also want to do as much business with China as possible. These contradictory trends are even more apparent considering that Washington is increasing its security presence in countries like Hungary, Greece and Poland, whereas the economic growth dynamic appears to be in China’s favour. Hence, far from being persuaded about a possible decoupling, the European economies are trying to maintain and even enhance their economic engagement with China, but this is now done with more awareness of the strategic dimensions involved and with new defensive tools, such as the European investment screening mechanism. In several chapters China is seen as a key partner in tackling global challenges and global governance issues such as climate change, the reform of the WTO and the Iran nuclear deal. However, many other texts reveal the same complaints that are voiced in Washington DC, namely a certain suspicion and mistrust of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), unease about the lack of market access and fair competition and concerns about the theft of intellectual property, cyber- espionage, the acquisition of European strategic technology and infrastructure, the human rights track record in Tibet and in Xinjiang, and the concentration of power in the hands of Xi Jinping. However, while many European policymakers share the complaints that are voiced by Washington about China’s state capitalist model,