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Poverty and Welfare Trends in the Republic of Belarus (1990-2000)

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Poverty and Welfare Trends in the Republic of Belarus (1990-2000) UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre 1 Piazza SS. Annunziata, 12 50122 Florence, Italy website: www.unicef-icdc.org POVERTY AND WELFARE TRENDS IN THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS (1990-2000) Country Paper Co-ordinator: Galina Gasyuk Ministry of Statistics and Analysis, Minsk Background paper prepared for the Social Monitor (2002) The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the policies or views of UNICEF 2 Analytical Report Index Changes during Monitoring of the Status of Children and the Family in the Republic of Belarus between 1990 and 2000 1. Demographic Trends in the Republic of Belarus As of 1 January 2001, the republic’s population amounted to 9,990,400 people. Until the early 1990s, the republic's population was on the steady rise, but at a gradually declining rate. This decrease became particularly pronounced in the 1990s due to a drop in the birth rate and an increase in the death rate. After 1993, the natural increase in the population became negative. A certain, although insignificant, increase is characteristic of the republic's urban population (see Fig. 1). Between 1990 and 2000, the number of live births decreased from 142,200 to 93,700 (by 34.1%) (see Fig. 2). By the beginning of 2001, the number of children under 18 years of age was 2.4 million, or 23.9% of the total population. Of this total number of children, 24.8% were under the age of 6 and 76.2% were between the ages of 6 and 17. Because of the declining birth rate, the number of children decreased in all the age groups, apart from those aged 13-17 who were born in the mid-1980s, when the number of births was relatively high. With the exception of 1989, the highest birth rate in the period under review was in the Brest Region, where it ranged from 14.9 births per 1,000 of the population in 1990 to 10.7 births in 2000. The lowest birth rate was recorded in various years in the Vitebsk Region (from 13.1 births per 1,000 of the population in 1990 to 8.4 in 1996) and in Minsk (from 12.3 births per 1,000 of population in 1991 to 7.7 in 1997). Over the 10 years, the birth rate decreased by 32% in the Brest Region, by 36-39% in the Mogilyov, Minsk, Grodno, Gomel and Vitebsk Regions, and by 42% in Minsk. The current very low birth rate in Belarus does not ensure simple reproduction of the population. The crude birth rate has fallen from 1.96 per woman in 1990 to 1.31 in 2000 (the highest rate, 1.5 births per woman, was recorded in the Brest Region, and the lowest, 1.1 births, in Minsk). As a result, the number of births in 2000 came to 93,700, or 66% of the level reached in 1990. The birth rate among teenagers decreased from 44 births per 1,000 women aged 15-19 in 1990 to 27 births in 2000. Until 1992, this index kept rising, but since 1993, it has been gradually decreasing. This, however, is accompanied by a growth in the percentages of births by unmarried women (from 7.9% in 1990 to 18.6% in 2000), which is the harbinger of significant problems both for mother and child, as well as for society as a whole. In the years under review, the percentage of illegitimate births was the lowest in the Grodno Region, yet even there this index increased from 4.5% in 1990 to 11.4% in 2000. There is a favourable trend towards a reduction in the number of abortions, including those among girls under 20 years of age. 3 2. The Economic Situation and the Level of Government Revenue and Spending as the Basis for an Improvement in the Well-Being of Families and Children Steady economic growth is the most important component of a long-term reduction in poverty and improvement in the population's standard of living. Characteristic of the social and economic situation in Belarus after 1995 in general is the gradual elimination of the economic crisis and consistent implementation of a national social policy aimed at preserving access to education and health care for the entire population and particularly for children, and at ensuring the highest feasible social protection of the most vulnerable groups— children and senior citizens. The change in basic macroeconomic indicators is characterised by the following data: Dynamics of the Basic Macroeconomic Indicators 1990 1994 1995 1998 1999 2000 % change in 2000 compared with 1990 GDP growth rate (annual changes in %) -1.2 -12.6 -10.4 8.4 3.4 5.8 -11.4 Industrial production growth rate (annual changes in %) 2.1 -14.6 -11.7 12.4 10.3 7.8 0.7 Real wage growth rate (annual changes in %) 13.8 -30.9 -5.0 18.0 7.3 12.0 -5 Foreign trade balance in million US dollars … -556 -760 -1480 -765 -1161 x Annual inflation (consumer price index in %) 104.7 2321 809 173 394 269 x Budget deficit as % of GDP 2.3 -3.5 -2.7 -1.4 -2.9 -0.6 x Social spending from the national budget as % of total budget expenditure 30.8 35.9 42.8 38.0 34.7 36.7 x GDP 10.3 14.3 13.7 13.5 13.1 13.0 x As can be seen from the above data, the favourable trends in the development of the republic’s economy, which became noticeable after 1994, began to change in the second half of 1998 mainly under the impact of negative external factors caused by the global financial crisis. In 1999-2001, measures to support domestic producers notwithstanding, the rates of growth in production slowed down, which was accompanied by a decline in the financial indices and a substantial increase in inflation—by nearly 300% in 1999 and by 170% in 2000. During the first ten 10 months of 2001, it increased by 32.5% compared with December 2000, whereas in 1998, the annual increase in prices amounted to only 70%. The highest level of registered unemployment was recorded in 1996 when it came to 3.9% of the economically active population. During the last two and a half years, it has remained at 2.0% to 2.2%. The number of the registered unemployed is about 100,000. According to household surveys, the actual unemployment level is approximately threefold higher. In the Republic of Belarus, despite a reduction in the GDP and the amount of funds allocated in the national budget for ensuring citizens’ constitutional right to preschool services and free education and health care, the share of budgetary funds spent on these purposes in the past ten years did not decrease; on the contrary, it kept growing, which can be seen from the following data: 4 Dynamics of the Share of National Budget Spending of the Republic of Belarus on Education and Health Care (percentage) Spending on education and including: health care as % of GDP total budget social spending on education as % of spending on health care and spending spending physical training as % of GDP total budget social GDP total budget social spending spending spending spending 1990 6.8 20.5 65.8 4.3 13.0 41.6 2.5 7.5 24.2 1994 11.2 28.0 78.1 5.8 14.6 40.7 5.4 13.4 37.4 1995 10.4 32.4 75.6 5.5 17.1 40.0 4.9 15.3 35.6 1996 10.8 38.4 78.9 5.8 20.6 42.4 5.0 17.8 36.5 1997 11.4 34.8 81.5 6.3 19.3 45.2 5.1 15.5 36.3 1998 11.1 31.5 82.7 6.2 17.6 46.1 4.9 13.9 36.6 1999 11.1 29.4 84.9 6.1 16.2 46.9 5.0 13.2 38.0 2000 11.2 31.5 85.7 6.2 17.4 47.4 5.0 14.1 38.3 In view of the insufficient financing of health care and considering the complicated demographic situation and unsatisfactory state of the population’s health, the President of the Republic of Belarus singled out the development of health care and the improvement of health as a priority aspect of the Programme for the country’s social and economic development for 2001-2005. 3. Education Trends Throughout 1990-2000, work aimed to ensure the stable functioning and development of the national education system was carried out in the republic. The network of educational institutions and preschool establishments has been preserved and is being developed, their curricula are being improved, and the system of general education schools is being reformed. In addition to state-run schools, private educational institutions, in particular, those in the sphere of higher and specialised secondary education, are being developed. Preschool education. Preschool care and education is the stage preceding first school grade in the education system of the Republic of Belarus. It is responsible for ensuring optimum conditions for the physical development of children taking into account their age and individual features, as well as preparing them for primary education. Preschool establishments offer day care, supervision, health improvement, education, and training for children between the ages of 1 and 7 years. The system of preschool establishments includes day nurseries, nursery schools, and kindergartens. As of the end of 2000, a total of 4,423 preschool establishments, including 1,139 kindergartens, 2,902 nursery schools, 8 day nurseries, 354 preschool establishments of a school-cum-kindergarten type, and 20 child development centres operated in the republic.
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