Food Security Monitoring Early Warning System SAP/SSA Bulletin n°99/Ja nuary 2011 Publication: February 2011

Emergency Agricultural Needs Map, season 2011B N ► In October 2010 UNHCR began the repatriation of Burundian refugees who were in DRC and Congolese Bugabira Busoni Giteranyi refugees who were in Burundi, following the tripartite Ki rundo Bwambarangwe Nt ega Kirundo agreement signed between the two countries and the UN Rwanda Git obe

Mug ina agency in December 2009. Butihinda Ma bayi Ma rang ara Vumbi Ga shoho Ny am ur enz a Muyinga ► The impact of the La Niña weather phenomenon was most Mwu mba Rugombo Cibitoke Muy inga Busiga Ga sorwe Mu rwi Ka barore Ngozi acutely felt in the North East and East of the country; mostly Bukinanyana Ga shik anwa Ka ya nz a Ng ozi Tang ara Muruta Ga hom bo late and deficient rains throughout season 2011A, while high Git aram uka Buhinyuza Buganda Ga tara Ruhororo Mu s iga ti Kayanza Ki gam ba Bubanza Muh a ng a altitude areas were affected by torrential rains and hailstorms Buhiga Bubanza Matongo Bugenyuzi Mwa kiro Mi shiha Gihogazi from January 2011. Rango Muta ho Cankuzo Mpa nda Karuzi Giha nga Bukeye Mutum ba Rugazi Ca nk uzo Mbuye Gis ag ara ► Provisional results from the joint Crop and Food Security Muramvya Bugendana Ny abike re Muti mbu zi Mu ramvya Shombo Bweru Buja Rutegama Cendajuru Assessment Mission (CFSAM) of season 2011A points to a Isale Kiganda Gihe ta Nda va Butezi Mairie Mu g ong om anga Gis uru production of 254 509 tons of Cereal Equivalent (CE); a 3% Ka nyosha Git ega Ruyigi Buja Ny abih an g a Ny abira b a Rusaka Gitega Ruyigi Muta mbuRural Mwaro decrease compared to the previous season 2010A, which was Ka bez i Ka yokwe Ma ke buko Muk ike Gis oz i Ny anrus ange Butaganzwa Itaba in its turn also very low. Ki ny inya Muhuta Bisoro Gishubi Ny abits ind a Mu gamba Bugarama ► The nutritional deficit reported for the first semester of the Ryansoro Bukirasazi Ma tan a Buraza Musongati year was of 471 884 tons of CE, a drop of around 20 000 tons oof Giha ro RDC Burambi Mpin g a‐Kayove e Buyengero i Songa Rutana n CE compared with the same period of last year. Rutana a z n Bururi a ► The drop in food availability between 2010A and 2011A is Rumonge T Git anga Bukemba due to a reduction in production, in imports and in food aid in L a c

T Ma ka mba respective proportions of 52%, 38% and 10%. a Vugizo Ka yogoro n g Makamba a ► Aid in the form of emergency agricultural inputs has n y Ny an z a i k Lac Ki ba go a Mabanda suffered a deficit of 64% relative to needs; the equivalent of the Provi nce boundari es materials required by 150 000 households. Lakes Emergency Needs : percent age ► The WFP-Burundi office distributed 1 380 tons of food to rel ative t o t otal popul ati on 282 500 beneficiaries throughout January 2011 and shows a Source : Joint havest evaluation report No Humanit ari an Emergency for season 2011A deficit equivalent to around USD 5,4 million for the period of Map : FAO- SAP/SSA Less t han 10 % Date : February 2011 11 to 20% February to July 2011. 20 020Km 21 to 40% y To read in the bulletin...

Evolution of price trends of basic foods on the national markets (2002-2010)

1000

800

600

(Fbu/kg) 400

Price 200

0 juil.‐02 janv.‐03 juil.‐03 janv.‐04 juil.‐04 janv.‐05 juil.‐05 janv.‐06 juil.‐06 janv.‐07 juil.‐07 janv.‐08 juil.‐08 janv.‐09 juil.‐09 janv.‐10

P.douce Ngozi P.douce Gitega Haricot Ngozi Haricot

This monthly bulletin aims to prevent serious nutritional crises and is used to distribute information regarding food security in Burundi. It emanates from the collaboration of FAO, OCHA, WFP, UNICEF, MINAGRIE and NGOs operating in the field, with support from donors and notably the EU delegation. [TType text] 1. Security and population movements The rainfall deficits predicted since August 2010 have resulted in delays and prolonged breaks in the rains Just as in the months that preceded the end of 2010, the between September and December 2010. The variability in month of January 2011 was characterized by an increase in rainfall (excess and/or deficits) recorded by the sporadic crime throughout the country and a high level of meteorological stations of the Geographic Institute of alert following rumours of attacks over the end-of-year Burundi (IGEBU) confirm the above effects of La Niña, holidays by the Al-Shabab terrorist group. Human rights as does the above table describing the rainfall variability. abuses were reported, notably targeted killings, armed The rainfall data described in the table are calculated using robberies of households and crops as well as rape. This the following formulae: instable criminal climate has persisted since the electoral period of May to September 2010. Variability (V, in mm)= Recorded (R, in mm)-Normal (N, in mm). Meanwhile, the repatriation process has been less intense compared with recent years. Since 2002 UNHCR has The proportions of variation (P, in %)= V * 100/N. The facilitated the repatriation of 510 391 people. One must value of P determines the assessment levels relating to point out that of the 212 000 people who have applied for crops. From IGEBU: naturalization in Tanzania, 162 000 (76%) were granted • If P% is superior to +20%, rainfall has been in excess. citizenship, 45 000 others took the option of voluntary • If P% is within -19% and +20%, rainfall has been repatriation, whilst the remaining groups need to be normal. persuaded to return to Burundi. The repatriation • If P% is within -20% and -59%, rainfall have been in programme should come to a close before the end of deficit. 2010, while 37 000 refugees are still in exile in the Mutabira • If P% is below -60%, rainfall has been in severe deficit. refugee camp in Tanzania. Hence the need to adopt the contingency plan which is currently being finalized under By applying these formulae, we can conclude that the UNHCR coordination. rainfall registered in season 2011A has been largely in deficit. The most affected by the rainfall deficits at the end In October 2010, UNHRC initiated the repatriation of of 2010 were the regions in the North and North East of Burundian refugees in DRC and Congolese refugees in the country, at low and medium altitudes. These regions Burundi, in line with the tripartite agreement signed are Bugesera, Moso, Bweru and Buyogoma. between the two countries and the UN agency in December 2009. A total of 1 093 Congolese citizens were In addition, storms and hail have occurred since January returned to DRC and 3 609 Burundians returned to their 2011, causing severe losses of crops and infrastructures country between October 2010 and the beginning of (housing and schools), principally in the regions at high January 2011. and medium altitudes. Those occurring at the end of January/ beginning of February 2011 have destroyed the 2. Rainfall situation crops of thousands of households in the communes of the Mumirwa and regions. Rainfall recorded for season 2011A, which comes to a close in February, has been characterized by strong 3. Agricultural Situation climatic disturbances related to the La Niña weather phenomenon. La Niña is a weather phenomenon which Climatic extremes that characterized the September 2010 originates in thermal anomalies in the equatorial waters of to January 2011 period have caused a significant reduction the central and eastern pacific ocean, and is characterised in performance for season 2011A. The erratic and delayed by abnormally low temperatures in these waters. The low rainfall has delayed by more than two months the temperatures result in low rainfall in East Africa. beginning of this season, especially in the regions in the Rainfall Variation data from end October to end December 2010 North, North East and East of the country. This delay in (pourecentage) seed-sowing has also affected the harvest period, which is October November December in turn behind the prolongation of the hunger gap (typical Stations D3 D1 D2 D3 D1 D2 D3 food shortage between two harvests) on the one hand and Cankuzo ‐57 ‐48 ‐28 ‐55 ‐22 ‐81 ‐35 of the overlap of seasons 2011A and 2011B on the other Muriza ‐57 ‐48 ‐28 ‐55 ‐13 ‐58 ‐40 hand. Kinyinya ‐37 5 46 ‐90 73 ‐82 ‐39 Gitega‐Aéro ‐98 21 ‐1 ‐82 ‐1 ‐96 8 Due to this, farmers who usually take seeds from the Karusi ‐65 ‐25 178 ‐58 15,3 ‐26,5 19,1 production of season A for sowing in season B will have Buja‐ Aéro ‐20,8 ‐39,3 24,7 ‐15,2 ‐100 ‐100 ‐100 difficulty finding seeds for season 2011B which normally Gisozi 77 ‐14 64 ‐60 109 ‐16 ‐11 begins in February. Bean crops, which had suffered Muyinga ‐65 ‐25 178 ‐58 ‐39 ‐44 89 significant drops in production in recent seasons, have Bugabira ‐74 ‐13 ‐14 ‐78 18 ‐22,6 30,0 been the most affected by rainfall deficits. Kirundo ‐55 ‐62 69 ‐86 152 20 111

The hailstorms which accompanied the torrential rains production, fruits and vegetables). The unmet food deficit is more significant at the beginning of this year compared to the same period of last year for the following three reasons:

• A 3% drop in agricultural production; • A 30% drop iin food product imports, linked to Value Added Tax (VAT), to which the imports were exempt before integration into the East African Community (EAC), but also due to the low agricultural production registered in the sub- regions, which were affected by the La Niña weather phenomenon; • A 12% drop in food aid provided by WFP, which iss currently adopting the country-programme.

of December 2010 to January 2011, have systematically The proportion of importance given to each of these three damaged crops of the most affected areas, mostly at high reasons for food deficits, as shown in the following graph, and medium altitudes. Agricultural losses due to the shows that the drop in agricultural production is the most rainfall deficit have been reported in large proportions of significant, followed by food-related imports and direct the country, whereas the consequences of rainfall excesses food aid. (especially hail) have been relatively limited geographically but more severe if we consider the extent of crop losses The availability of foods therefore drops while the demand they have caused. increases with the demographic growth and the risk of continued food price increases is therefore very high. In effect, the provisional report from the joint Crop and Furthermore, the prices have been at very high levels for Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) of season three years, and their inflation is aggravated by the 2011A, carried out by MINAGRIE, FAO, WFP, UNICEF increases in petrol price, on a global level, but most and other national and international partners, points out especially at the national level. that crop production for season 2011A is estimated at around 254 509 tons of CE; thus 28 626, 81 482, 111 632, 32 769 tons of CE for pulses, cereals, tubers (and roots) Fall of food availability components beteen seasons and bananas respectively. 2010A and 2011A (in thousand tons Cereal Equivalents) Food Aid 10% The report also points out that this production has dropped by 3% compared to the same season last year (2010A), which was already in deficit. The per-capita droop is of 6%; a production estimated at around 30 kg of CE Production 52% per person, compared to the 32 kg of CE of season 2010A. Imports 38% The drop in production of pulses, a crop which is very sensitive to rainfall extremes, is estimated at around 2 175 tons; a drop of 7% compared to 2010A. This drop in production equates to about 5 days of food needs for the whole Burundian population, which in turn accentuates the The fact that the prices of basic foods continue to be at levels of food deficits. very high levels critically restrains food access for the most vulnerable households. Those most at risk are those who’s 4. Food access and availability crops are regularly damaged by natural disasters.

The drop in production from season 2011A displayed This situation is further troubling, given that the food above has been affecting the national food availability deficit must be bought on the market, and the wage earned during the first semester of this year. The results of the for two days of manual labour, the main source of income joint Crop and Food Security Assessment Missioon in rural areas, hardly covers a family’s nutritional needs for (CFSAM) for season 2011A carried out in January 2011 one day. The poorest households are thus forced to adopt show a food deficit of 471 884 tons of CE. Of the national extreme coping strategies. food needs (817 000 tons of CE), 261 000 tons of CE are met by agricultural production, 35 000 tons of CE are met 5. Nutritional Situation by imports, 31 116 tons of CE met by WFP’s direct food aid and 18 000 tons of CE is met by productions not Since November 2010, the number of cases of considered by the mission (marginal crops, animal malnutrition continues to rise in the majority of provinces, These households are for the most part divided between the provinces of the North East and East of the country, affected by the water shortages as well as in high altitude regions which have fallen victim to hailstorms (see map of emergency agricultural assistance needs for season 2011B on the first page). For these estimated needs, only 5% are covered by humanitarian actors, leaving 64% of needs to be met.

taking into account seasonal factors, and in particular of In January 2011, WFP assisted 282 500 beneficiaries with the hunger gap between harvests. The current trend does 1 380 tons of food, mainly through the programmes of not display a situation of emergency and remains general distributions, food canteens, VCT, Food for comparable to the situation of past years during the same Refugees and Repatriated groups. The ‘At a glance’ section period (see following graphic showing the tendencies of severe cases in shows the WFP predictions for the first semester of the the provinces most affected by food insecurity: January 2009 to current year. December 2010). UNICEF has distributed 23 tons of therapeutic nutritional The peak of reported cases is typically between the months inputs in health centres in 14 provinces for the integrated of February and April. There is, therefore, need to carry management of acute malnutrition. UNICEF, which out a more focused follow-up evaluation for the period of continues to support nutritional surveillance and the the beginning of 2011, given that the food security strengthening of nutritional screening and referral at the situation is deteriorating. It would be desirable for the community level in collaboration with its partners malnutrition degradation be detected as early as possible. (PRONIANUT, IMC and GVC), points out that a reduction in extent of food supply by WFP for the tackling 6. Emergency Response of moderate acute malnutrition in Burundi risks aggravating and causing more cases of severe acute The unfavourable climatic conditions which continue malnutrition. throughout season 2011A as well as the problems related to the reinsertion of repatriated groups (especially those installed in the Rural Integrated Villages: VRI), have oriented humanitarian actions towards the establishment of season 2011B. The needs for basic agricultural inputs for this season are estimated by the joint mission for the evaluation of season 2011A at around 14% of the population; 227 092 households.

At a glance : WFP food assistance projections in Burundi st T he WFP has begun, starting on the 1 of January 2011, a four year country programme (PP) to con tribute to development, and a Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation (IPSR) which will take place ove r two years and which will contribute to emergency humanitarian needs. With the current financial situ ation, the WFP will suffer from cumulative deficits of around 7 152 tons; 7.52 million USD (4.3 mil US D in the Country programme and 3.7 mil USD in the IPSR programme) for a period extending from Ma rch to August).

T herefore, if more resources are not available immediately to make up for these deficits, the WFP will be for ced to reduce the quantity of rations for its food and for the most vulnerable groups, notably refugees livi ng in camps, children suffering from malnutrition, people living with HIV undergoing ARV treatment w ho benefit from WFP assistance. It is worth noting that food aid provided by WFP for the initiation of the new IPSR 200164 is made up in large part, by stock left over from the previous IPSR 200164 which st ca me to a close on the 31 of December 2010.

The information contained in this bulletin does not necessarily reflect the views of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. The names and definitions used in this newsletter do not in any way reflect the views of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal status of the country, its authorities, or the limits of its borders.