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Buru Undi Fo Early W Ood Warning Se G Syste Ecurity Em

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Buru Undi Fo Early W Ood Warning Se G Syste Ecurity Em Burundi Food Security Monitoring Early Warning System SAP/SSA Bulletin n°99/Ja nuary 2011 Publication: February 2011 Emergency Agricultural Needs Map, season 2011B N ► In October 2010 UNHCR began the repatriation of Burundian refugees who were in DRC and Congolese Bugabira Busoni Giteranyi refugees who were in Burundi, following the tripartite Ki rundo Bwambarangwe Nt ega Kirundo agreement signed between the two countries and the UN Rwanda Git obe Mug ina agency in December 2009. Butihinda Ma bayi Ma rang ara Vumbi Ga shoho Ny am ur enz a Muyinga ► The impact of the La Niña weather phenomenon was most Mwu mba Rugombo Cibitoke Muy inga Busiga Kiremba Ga sorwe Mu rwi Ka barore Ngozi acutely felt in the North East and East of the country; mostly Bukinanyana Ga shik anwa Ka ya nz a Ng ozi Tang ara Muruta Ga hom bo late and deficient rains throughout season 2011A, while high Git aram uka Buhinyuza Buganda Ga tara Ruhororo Mu s iga ti Kayanza Ki gam ba Bubanza Muh a ng a altitude areas were affected by torrential rains and hailstorms Buhiga Bubanza Matongo Bugenyuzi Mwa kiro Mi shiha Gihogazi from January 2011. Rango Muta ho Cankuzo Mpa nda Karuzi Giha nga Bukeye Mutum ba Rugazi Ca nk uzo Mbuye Gis ag ara ► Provisional results from the joint Crop and Food Security Muramvya Bugendana Ny abike re Muti mbu zi Mu ramvya Shombo Bweru Buja Rutegama Cendajuru Assessment Mission (CFSAM) of season 2011A points to a Isale Kiganda Gihe ta Nda va Butezi Mairie Mu g ong om anga Gis uru production of 254 509 tons of Cereal Equivalent (CE); a 3% Ka nyosha Git ega Ruyigi Buja Ny abih an g a Ny abira b a Rusaka Gitega Ruyigi Muta mbuRural Mwaro decrease compared to the previous season 2010A, which was Ka bez i Ka yokwe Ma ke buko Muk ike Gis oz i Ny anrus ange Butaganzwa Itaba in its turn also very low. Ki ny inya Muhuta Bisoro Gishubi Ny abits ind a Mu gamba Bugarama ► The nutritional deficit reported for the first semester of the Ryansoro Bukirasazi Ma tan a Buraza Musongati year was of 471 884 tons of CE, a drop of around 20 000 tons oof Giha ro RDC Burambi Mpin g a‐Kayove e Buyengero i Songa Rutovu Rutana n CE compared with the same period of last year. Rutana a z Bururi n Bururi a ► The drop in food availability between 2010A and 2011A is Rumonge T Git anga Bukemba due to a reduction in production, in imports and in food aid in L Vyanda a c T Ma ka mba respective proportions of 52%, 38% and 10%. a Vugizo Ka yogoro n g Makamba a ► Aid in the form of emergency agricultural inputs has n y Ny an z a i k Lac Ki ba go a Mabanda suffered a deficit of 64% relative to needs; the equivalent of the Provi nce boundari es materials required by 150 000 households. Lakes Emergency Needs : percent age ► The WFP-Burundi office distributed 1 380 tons of food to rel ative t o t otal popul ati on 282 500 beneficiaries throughout January 2011 and shows a Source : Joint havest evaluation report No Humanit ari an Emergency for season 2011A deficit equivalent to around USD 5,4 million for the period of Map : FAO- SAP/SSA Less t han 10 % Date : February 2011 11 to 20% February to July 2011. 20 020Km 21 to 40% y To read in the bulletin... Evolution of price trends of basic foods on the national markets (2002-2010) 1000 800 600 (Fbu/kg) 400 Price 200 0 juil.‐02 janv.‐03 juil.‐03 janv.‐04 juil.‐04 janv.‐05 juil.‐05 janv.‐06 juil.‐06 janv.‐07 juil.‐07 janv.‐08 juil.‐08 janv.‐09 juil.‐09 janv.‐10 P.douce Ngozi P.douce Gitega Haricot Ngozi Haricot Bujumbura This monthly bulletin aims to prevent serious nutritional crises and is used to distribute information regarding food security in Burundi. It emanates from the collaboration of FAO, OCHA, WFP, UNICEF, MINAGRIE and NGOs operating in the field, with support from donors and notably the EU delegation. [TType text] 1. Security and population movements The rainfall deficits predicted since August 2010 have resulted in delays and prolonged breaks in the rains Just as in the months that preceded the end of 2010, the between September and December 2010. The variability in month of January 2011 was characterized by an increase in rainfall (excess and/or deficits) recorded by the sporadic crime throughout the country and a high level of meteorological stations of the Geographic Institute of alert following rumours of attacks over the end-of-year Burundi (IGEBU) confirm the above effects of La Niña, holidays by the Al-Shabab terrorist group. Human rights as does the above table describing the rainfall variability. abuses were reported, notably targeted killings, armed The rainfall data described in the table are calculated using robberies of households and crops as well as rape. This the following formulae: instable criminal climate has persisted since the electoral period of May to September 2010. Variability (V, in mm)= Recorded (R, in mm)-Normal (N, in mm). Meanwhile, the repatriation process has been less intense compared with recent years. Since 2002 UNHCR has The proportions of variation (P, in %)= V * 100/N. The facilitated the repatriation of 510 391 people. One must value of P determines the assessment levels relating to point out that of the 212 000 people who have applied for crops. From IGEBU: naturalization in Tanzania, 162 000 (76%) were granted • If P% is superior to +20%, rainfall has been in excess. citizenship, 45 000 others took the option of voluntary • If P% is within -19% and +20%, rainfall has been repatriation, whilst the remaining groups need to be normal. persuaded to return to Burundi. The repatriation • If P% is within -20% and -59%, rainfall have been in programme should come to a close before the end of deficit. 2010, while 37 000 refugees are still in exile in the Mutabira • If P% is below -60%, rainfall has been in severe deficit. refugee camp in Tanzania. Hence the need to adopt the contingency plan which is currently being finalized under By applying these formulae, we can conclude that the UNHCR coordination. rainfall registered in season 2011A has been largely in deficit. The most affected by the rainfall deficits at the end In October 2010, UNHRC initiated the repatriation of of 2010 were the regions in the North and North East of Burundian refugees in DRC and Congolese refugees in the country, at low and medium altitudes. These regions Burundi, in line with the tripartite agreement signed are Bugesera, Moso, Bweru and Buyogoma. between the two countries and the UN agency in December 2009. A total of 1 093 Congolese citizens were In addition, storms and hail have occurred since January returned to DRC and 3 609 Burundians returned to their 2011, causing severe losses of crops and infrastructures country between October 2010 and the beginning of (housing and schools), principally in the regions at high January 2011. and medium altitudes. Those occurring at the end of January/ beginning of February 2011 have destroyed the 2. Rainfall situation crops of thousands of households in the communes of the Mumirwa and Mugamba regions. Rainfall recorded for season 2011A, which comes to a close in February, has been characterized by strong 3. Agricultural Situation climatic disturbances related to the La Niña weather phenomenon. La Niña is a weather phenomenon which Climatic extremes that characterized the September 2010 originates in thermal anomalies in the equatorial waters of to January 2011 period have caused a significant reduction the central and eastern pacific ocean, and is characterised in performance for season 2011A. The erratic and delayed by abnormally low temperatures in these waters. The low rainfall has delayed by more than two months the temperatures result in low rainfall in East Africa. beginning of this season, especially in the regions in the Rainfall Variation data from end October to end December 2010 North, North East and East of the country. This delay in (pourecentage) seed-sowing has also affected the harvest period, which is October November December in turn behind the prolongation of the hunger gap (typical Stations D3 D1 D2 D3 D1 D2 D3 food shortage between two harvests) on the one hand and Cankuzo ‐57 ‐48 ‐28 ‐55 ‐22 ‐81 ‐35 of the overlap of seasons 2011A and 2011B on the other Muriza ‐57 ‐48 ‐28 ‐55 ‐13 ‐58 ‐40 hand. Kinyinya ‐37 5 46 ‐90 73 ‐82 ‐39 Gitega‐Aéro ‐98 21 ‐1 ‐82 ‐1 ‐96 8 Due to this, farmers who usually take seeds from the Karusi ‐65 ‐25 178 ‐58 15,3 ‐26,5 19,1 production of season A for sowing in season B will have Buja‐ Aéro ‐20,8 ‐39,3 24,7 ‐15,2 ‐100 ‐100 ‐100 difficulty finding seeds for season 2011B which normally Gisozi 77 ‐14 64 ‐60 109 ‐16 ‐11 begins in February. Bean crops, which had suffered Muyinga ‐65 ‐25 178 ‐58 ‐39 ‐44 89 significant drops in production in recent seasons, have Bugabira ‐74 ‐13 ‐14 ‐78 18 ‐22,6 30,0 been the most affected by rainfall deficits. Kirundo ‐55 ‐62 69 ‐86 152 20 111 The hailstorms which accompanied the torrential rains production, fruits and vegetables). The unmet food deficit is more significant at the beginning of this year compared to the same period of last year for the following three reasons: • A 3% drop in agricultural production; • A 30% drop iin food product imports, linked to Value Added Tax (VAT), to which the imports were exempt before integration into the East African Community (EAC), but also due to the low agricultural production registered in the sub- regions, which were affected by the La Niña weather phenomenon; • A 12% drop in food aid provided by WFP, which iss currently adopting the country-programme.
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