Ho Chi Minh City

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HO CHIMINH CITY: A FUTURE MEGACITY IN VIETNAM

PATRICK GUBRY & LE THI HUONG 1

o Chi Minh City, the largest agglomeration with a population that Hmetropolis in Vietnam, celebrated exceeds 8 lIIi/lion" (Guest, 1994, p. 41). lh in 1998 its 300 anniversary after a "The t/lrll 0/the twenty~fjrst centur)' will turbulent history. It was always considered mark a divide frolll a predominantly' rural as dominated by the business world and it world to one where the lIIaJority of people concentrates nowadays, with its metropolitan will be living ill cities. By the year 2000 region, an important part of the production, there will be lIIore thall 400 cities ill the investments and incomes of the whole IIlorld with over I lIIi//ion illhabitants. 0/ country. these. 28 will be lIIega-cities with Strictly speaking, Ho Chi Minh City is populations exceeding 8 lI1iliion, and two not yet a megacity according to the 1110st thirds of these l1lega-citics will be in the common definitions, but these definitions developing countries.... " (Fuchs et aI., are far from being uniform and it may be 1994, quoted by Popline data base). advisable to discuss them. However, the Asian Development Bank About the definitions of the megacity emphasizes a population of 10 million. This evolution is explained in a paper 111 For convenience, United Nations use a Population and Development Review simple statistical definition to characterize ( 1997): the megacity: it is an urban agglomeration with more than 8 million inhabitants: I. Patrick Gubry. Institut de Recherchc pour Megacities are "cities rhat are expected to le Developpement, 32 avcnue Henri have populatiolls 0(' at least 8 million Varagnat, 93143, Bondy Cedex (France), inlwbirallts by the year 2000" (United [email protected] Nations: Department of International Le Thi Huong Institut for Economic Economic and Social Affairs, 1986, 1987, Research of Ho Chi Minh City, 28 Le Quy 1989). Don, District 3, Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnam), [email protected] "Like mallY terms that sweep into This article is a modified version of a paper popular usage. the term mega-city lacks a presented at the IUSSP Southeast Asian standard definition. The United Nations has Regional Population Conference, Session altempted to bring some order to the chaos S 19: Mega-Cities, Bangkok (10-13 June by defining a mega-city as an urban 2002).

56 Pmrick GII/Jr.1' & Le Thi HllolIg: -

"Allhough il is ill COlIlI/lOn use, Ille lerlll ..... urban agglomeraliol/s ·with //lore

lIlegacilv has 110 agreed dejinilion. For Ihe than ID //Iillion illhabital/-ts are kllown as: ,UN il is a cily wilh a projecled popula/ion //Iega-cities"'(p.93). " .' ...

in 20000/8 milliollor more". Following this definition, 111 South-East' For the Asian Development Bank, "A Asia, there 'are two inegaciri'es in 2000: lIIegacity is deji'lIed'as a large metropolitan Jakarta (I 1..0 I.lli 11 ion in habi tants) and Metro area with a complex ecollom)', a large alld' M an ila (10.9 mi II ion)" whi I.e. the other urban high~v skilled lobar force: and a agglomerations wi th 5 mill ion inhabi tants or :. I • •' ': :; . • $ t/'{/lIsportatioll system capable ofmail/tail/illg more include also Bangkok (7.3 n}illion)., dailv -COllllllill/icatiollS among 01/· its The scientists still discuss the most residellls. A Ihreshold poplllalioll '01' ID adequate vocabuiary to define the very big , , . .. mil/ioll is -lIsed 10 defil/e megilcilies il/ city. We must notice. that the term DMCs [Developillg Member COlllltries] ./01: "megaclty," has no mechanica', translation in . . '. ' . Ihe purpose 01' IIniformil);. /11 111(11)' cases, every language. For example,,: ~athalie this poplIlO/ioll is for all extellded area Robatel (200q) .·analyzed some Frenc~ beyond Ihe admillistrative bOlll/daries 01' Ihe authors \~ho recently tried to de.fine· this cOl/slill/ell1 Illlin icipalilies. /1/ higher-illct/me phenomenon, particular'ly Thierry Paquot, coulllries, Ihe populatioll threshold lVould Franyois Moriconi-Ebr~'rd, Jerome Monnet be lower "(p. 453). and Philippe Haeriliger. :Th~ simple' Econ'omic and geographic criteria appear translatioll of "megaci'ty", 'which would be as a supplement to the population size. The "mega-cite" iti French, :is n'or usual and authors notably draw conclusions about the authors - rather' tend to compare the number of megacities in Southeast Asia' liletropolis' with the megapolis (or region: megalopolis), with the idea that this last one has transnation'al functions. Franyois Asher .. Worldwide there are I 7megacities ". In (1995) proposed the term "metapolis" to 1995, "Asia has lIille megacities". In ,2010, define the areas "ill which all or· allY in South-East Asia, there will be three inllObildlilS, ecollomic act,vll,es - ,or .megacities: Jakarta (19.2 million), Bangkok territdriej al:e illlegl:cited illlo 'tlie dail:" (14.0 million) and Manila (13.7 million). (col/lmoll) ff/lleliollillg or a I/lelropolis ". The term megacity is sometimes applied These areas are not nece5sariJy cqntiguous. , to less populated agglomerations: This rapid look at the definitions of the ..... the 1990 populatiolls of the largest megacity shows that 'one should not linger megacities 0/ South-East Asia were as on a gross figure of population, but that it is fol/ows: Jakarta, 8.2 mil/iol1; Ballgkok, 5.9 rather necessary to,analyze the functions of millioll; 'Metro /I//anila, 7.9 mil/ion" (.Iones the large 'city, wliethei' it is a "'megacity" or et aI., 1999, p. 4). not, inside the national area- and \-vi·thin the In the last issue of the United Nations framework of globalization, as w'ellas the "World urbanization prospects" (200 I), it speCific problems of town planning which it seems that even the definition of UN has generates. This approach was attempted in a changed: synthesis on the world biggest cities:

57 VIETNAM'S SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, No.40, Winter 2004

"The complexity of the patterns of urban agglomeration, even if it remained growth of megacities and large for a long time separate from Saigon by an metropolitan areas throughout the world uninhabited zone. The chosen d.ates, either poses a major challenge" (p. I) (United have a particular importance in· country's· Nations: Population Division, 1995). history, or correspond to a specific .data Ho Chi Minh City has been taken into collection. The evolution rellects the account among these cities. natural increase and the migratory balance, but also the extension of the geographic The evolution of the population of Ho limits of the city according to its increase. Chi Minh City At the time of the extension of the Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) is the largest administrative limits, a population, considered 2 urban agglomeration in Vietnam . At the unti I then as "rural", instantl y becomes 1999 Census there were 3.7 million urban "urban". This well-known phenomenon, often inhabitants, against 5 million inhabitants in called "reclassification", explains the the whole of the administrative unit]. quantitative "jumps" observed between However, the evolution of the population 188 I and 1900 (annexation of seven of HCMC was not regular and the peripheral villages in 1894 and 1895), then population of the city decreased repeatedly between 1943 and 1945 (creation of Tan th during its history (table 1, figure 1). Binh province by decree of May 11 , The estimation of the demographic 1944) (Nguyen Dinh Dau, \998). In 1976, evolution of HCMC is made difficult by an administrative reorganization integrated the scarcity of the available into HCMC the province of Gia Dinh and documentation, by the lack of quality of several other peripheral zones, of which it ancient data, by the newness of scientific is advisable to take into account the urban population censuses, by the reasonable population in the study of the evolution of absence of demographic surveys during the city; but, the population exodus from 1h disturbed periods and by the absence of Saigon after April 30 , 1975 completely determination of the real urban population hides this phenomenon. in the peripheral Districts during the recent period. Nevertheless, by combining several 2. The name of President Ho Chi Minh has sources, we may obtain relatively coherent nd been given to Saigon on July 2 , 1976, estimations. And so table I estimates the during the 61h ~ession of the National evolution of the population of urban \ Assembly. agglomeration of Saigon-HCMC from 3. The details of the estimations appear in 1698 (official creation date) to 1999 (year table 2. See Le Thi Huong, 2000; Gubry of the last census). The table includes the and Le Thi Huong, 2002; several parts of city of Cholon, which has in practice this paper come from thcse chapters, always been economically a part of the published in French and in Vietnamese.

58 Pl1trick Cllhl"\' & Le Thi Hlwn" . "

Table 1: Estimation of the evolutioll of the populatioll of the urball agglomeratioll of Saigoll-HCMCfrom 1698 to 1999

Urban population Annual average Year Sources Saigon Cholon Total rate of increase 1698 5,000 (a) I . . ~ __ . _...... _...... "'.. 1859 33,000 (a) ...... - __ _ - __ , - ..__ . - _. __.. . _--_ _ __ . IH62 7,000 (b) I 1881 13,481 39,806 53,287 (b) ...... __ .. -_•..••..•.. _ - _-_._ _--_._-- .-. . _..__._-______- __..- -.__ .__ - - _ _._ _ _. 1900 50,300 133,600 183,900 (b) ...... ", -~""--"'... . _.~ .•...... •_ ~ _-.._ _...... 1907 55,951 172,520 228,471 (1881-1943: +3.4%) (c) ...... _ _---_ ..__ __._.._._._.. _ _._--.- - _ __ _ _._--- _ _._.. -.. _.._.__._-_ - 1911 67,739 181,742 249,481 1881-1945: +4.6% (d) ...... _ - - _ _.._ - __.__ _ . 1926 143,197 203,519 346,716 (e) ...... _ _ _-- ._.._-----_.__..__ ..- -_ __••...... _. __.. _ __._...... _--~.. __ _..__. . _._ _-- •....__. 1939 495,781 (c) •••.••...... •••.•._.•.• _. ._., ..••••.•.....••••_••.••..•.. _...... ••••.. _ M.M .. 1943 498,143 (t) ••••.•. __•...... •_...... •• • _ _M·.M_···· _.••••.•••••_._._ .••.•.__ _ _ ._. ._...••.. 1945 976,000 1945-1954: +6S% (g) ...... _...... _ - _ _ . 1954 1,723,360 1954-1958:-5.3% (b)(h) ...... _..... 1958 1,383,200 1958-1962: +0.9% (i) U)

•••••••••••.-•••••__• • __•••• __•••_._ ••_. •••••_ ••••••••••••••••••••__ M •• ·_.__•••••• .._ •••••••••••••••• ••••• ••••• ••• _ ... ~._•••• 1962 1,431,000 1962-1967:+4.0% (i) ...... ••.•- "" ...... •...... 1967 1,736,880 (1967-1975: +4.0'%) (i) ...... •...... •...... •...... __ . 1975 2,377,040 (1975-1976: +2.8(10) (k)

...... _.. -... . _...... ~- •..•...... _..__ _._ . 1976 2,442,798 1976-1979: +3.4% (I)

...... ______.__ .. ~., •.. ._ __.._.__. M'" ._._ · _.._M...... _ _.. _._ _.. . __.._. .__.__ ._ . 1979 2,700,849 1979-1989: +0.3% (m) •••••••••••••••••••••••••••__....._ ••_ •• _ ••••••••••••••••••••••••. .. 'H ....H... • ••••••••••••••••••••••••_ ••• _... • •••__••• _ •••• M •••••_ •••••••••••_. 1989 2,796,229 1989-1999: +2.7% (m)

••••••••••••••••••••••_ •• _. .~._ •••••_ •••••_. • • __• __• __•••••••• _ ••• ._... _ ••••••••••••••••••••••••• _ ••_._••__•• _._•••••••••_ •• _._._._ •• • H •• _ ••••• _ •• _ •••••• ••••_ •• ,_••••• ••_. • ._._•• ._ 1999 3,660,034 (m)

Sources: (a) Estimation calculated in 1998 at the 300111 anniversary ofthe cit)' (h) Nguyell Dinh DCII/, 1998 (Various administrative reports) (c) Balldrit, 1943 (Tah/e on the population of Saigou-Cholon ji-OI71 1907 to 1941, Statistical yearhook oflndocllina and Ardlivesofthe Govemment ofCochincltilUl) (d) Tran \lall Giall and Tron Bach Dallg (Cltu hiell), 1998 (Variofls administrati\·'e reports) (e) Narionallllstitlltefor Urhull alld RI/ral Plunllillg, 1994 (ql/otillg a cellsl/s) !fi SfOtistical yearhook of\Iietnam 1949-1950 (g) Retroprojecrioll ji-O/ll 1948 (Statistical yearhook of11ldocltina 1947-1948) (h) Srotisticulvearhook of\iietllum 1952-1953 (i) Demograpltic S/lITe)'s of 1958, 1962 (//td 1967 (j) ,)'rotisticul yearhook of\lietllam 1958-1959 (k) Minimul estimatioll hy continl/atioll oftlte past trend (I) Electoral censlls ofFelmtary 51", 1976 (Ill) CeflSllses of 1979,1989 alld 1999 (urhafl population estimated for 1999)

59 VIETNAM'S SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, No.40. Winter 2004

Figure I: Evoluiioll oftire urball populatioll ofSaigoll-Ho Chi Milllr City from 1881 to 1999 Million 4 1999

1979 1 .1989 1975 1976

. '2 1954 .1967

195[!1962 1945 '" ,~ .-"'~~., ~ o ~___---I---'-. 11911-'-'- --.J . . Year

The evolution of the population of the colony. Let us not forget that the Saigon-HCMC shows a population decrease colonization began in Saigon more than a after the capture of the city by the French quarter of a century before it began in th (on February 17 , 1859), especially due to Hanoi (in 1888). The city was then the heavy fights which took place during the considered as the "Pearl of the Far East", a battle ofChi Hoa in the northern Districts of showcase of French colonization. Tt 1h the city (on February 24_25 , 1861) and to assumed the function of capital city of the evacuation of the inhabitants of the Ben Indochina until 1902, when this role was Nghe area (Meyer, 1985). transferred to Hanoi. Jn 193 I, the towns of 4 The population growth rate is then Saigon and Cholon merged • During the relatively high under the French Indochina war, the city -controlled by the colonization (+4.6 per cent on average per French until 1954-, experienced strong year between 1881 and 1945, date of the activity connected to the war effort and proc lamation of Independence by President sheltered migrants fleeing the insecurity of Ho Chi Minh in Hanoi, or +3.4 per cent per countryside. . year between 1881 and 1943, before the We can only puthypotheses forward to explain unification with several peripheral zones); the strong decline recorded between 1954 and this growth rate increased during the 1958 (-5.3 per cent a year): overestimation Indochina war against the French (+6.5 per cent per year between 1945 and 1954). The 1h 4. Decision of April 27 , 1931, which colonial era corresponds to the created the "Saigon-Cho1on Region", applied implementation of heavy infrastructures and from January I SI, 1932 (Nguyen Dinh Dau, to the development of the administration of 1998).

60 Patrid: Guhrr & Le Thi Huollg

th of the population in 1954; inflation of the April 30 , 1975, was the day of the population of the city in 1954 by the liberation of the city, with the entrance of migrants from the North, often Catholics, the revolutionary forces, which marks the having decided to settle down in the South end of the Vietnam War and the according to the possibility offered by the reunification of the country. The estimation Geneva Agreements, a part of which of the population of Saigon on that date is 5 settled down in the peripheral provinces ; extremely difficult, because obviously no return to countryside of the war refugees; demographic survey has been made during 7 underestimation of the population by the this period • [n these conditions, it is wiser 1958 survey... The demographic data of to continue the past trend to obtain a 6 this period are moreover open to doubt . minimal estimation of the urban population The growth comes gradually back with of the agglomeration. the return of peace (about +0.9 per cent per year between 1958 and 1962, then +4.0 per 5. The country was then temporarily divided cent per year between 1962 and 1967), but into two parts, on both sides of the 17'h parallel. it is necessary to keep in mind that this 6. The statistical yearbook of 1949-1950 growth probably does not exceed the considers useful to clarify in a "preliminary natural increase of the population during note": the major part of this period. The "No populatioll census was made in Vietnam inflexible Catholic options of President since 1936. The last relatively precise Diem (murdered in 1963) certainly did not estimation concel'l1ing the entire Vietnam goes hack to the year 1943. These figures favour birth control. were reproduced in this chapter for every Between 1967 and 1975, with the region afVietllam. development of the Vietnam War against 111 1951. evalualiOIlS were givell hy the heads of every provillce ullder cOlltrol. Because of the Americans and the regime of the South~ the currellt illsecurity in the coulltry. these a real exodus took place from the rural figures hcn'e ollly a rough value: they are lIot . areas to Saigon. On one hand, the less useful rh ere alld girl' a rough idea 01' insecurity related to the military operations their level, which CUll he cOllsidered" was then at its highest level In the [Original in French]. countryside, also subject to intense 7. The difficulty is increased by the fact that it is impossible to distinguish the purely operations of chemical defoliation by air, residents from the temporary refugees, on the other hand the Government of the particularly during the last months of the South tried to regroup the population in war. Finally, a retroprojection from the data "strategic hamlets" (Ap chien luoc), to published by the new regime, notably the 1976 electoral census (Ban Chi Dao Tong shield it from the guerrilla warfare of the Dieu Tra Dan So va Nha 0 Thanh Pho Ho National Liberation Front; the groupings Chi Minh, 2000), from estimations of the were accelerated in many cases by the number of persons having left the city after destruction of the standing crops. These April, 1975 and from the estimation of the concentrations of population took the natural increase rate of the population, is made very unpredictable by the inclusion of farmers away from' their fields, making the population of the Gia Dinh Province, more difficult the practice of their activity with 10 Districts, in the new demographic and favouring the flight towards cities. data of HCMC from·1976.

61 VIETNAM'S SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, NoAO, Winter 2004

During the period 1975-1979 a strong The recent' period (1989-1999) was out-migration of population from HCMC marked by the Renovation policy (Doi occurred, leading to a very low total Moi), characterized by the economic increase. This period can be broken into two opening-up and the market liberalization, parts: 1975-1976, with a visible increase of decided in December, 1986, during the 6th +2.8 pel: cent, essentially owed to the Congress of the Communist Party of modification of the administrative limits of Vietnam. The consequences of this opening the agglomeration with the addition of Gia were felt gradually. Residential control Dinh Province, but with a substantial out slackened, economic growth strengthened migrationS; 1976-1979, with an annual and disparities between urban and rural increase of 3.4 per cent a year, still widely areas increased, attracting an increasing supported by the natural growth of the number of migrants towards the cities. Over population. The out-migration' is to be the whole period 1989-1999, the average imputed: annual growth rate of the urban population was 2.7 per cent, higher than the natural to the return of the "War refugees" to increase, which can be estimated at 1.4 per their villages; cent on average during the same period to the evacuation of a part of the (Ban Chi Dao Tong Dieu Tra Dan So va population towards countryside, notably to Nha 0 Thanh Pho Ho Chi Minh, 2000). The the New Economic Zones, following the migration increase was thus already at the measLires of "relocation", which firstly same level as the natural increase during the affected the non-native and the sympathizers of , last decade and it should be logically higher the former regime; 9 during the most recent years . to t~e illegal emigration abroad, with Globally, we see that the population of the "boat people" phenomenon. the city experienced three major crises: in This emigration was somewhat compensated 1859-1861 (conquest by the French), in by civil servants coming from the North, 1954-1956 (end of the Indochina War) and accompanied by their family. in 1975-1979 (end of the Vietnam War). From 1979 to 1989, the city experienced a quasi demographic stagnation (+0.3 per 8. Jacqueline Desbarats (1987, p. 53) quotes cent per year): the out-migration continued various Vietnamese sources (Liberation Radio, Saigon Domestic Service, Saigon Giai at the beginning of the period, often Phong), which estimate the departures from affecting the nationals of Chinese "Saigon" (in which administrative limits'?) extraction, following the 1979 conflict from May, 1975 till February, 1976 between between Vietnam and China; economic 430,000 and 500,000 inhabitants, the growth was slow, offering only few objective of the government being then "to employment opportunities; finally, the reduce the population of Saigon of 2 administrative residential control was then millions" before the end of 1976. very strict. Thus, the natural growth of the 9. These analyses suppose that the population just compensated the negative successive censuses are of equal quality, migratory balance. what remains to be proved.

62 Putrid Gub,.y & Le Tlli Huon/;

The current population ofHo Chi Minh City still inaccurate at current time. We thus divided The most recent demographic data on the administrative unit of HCMC into three HCMC appear in table iD. The administrative areas: the urban area (population 100 per cent unit of HCMC still contains a large rural pafi; urban), the semi-urban area (urban population the "rural" Districts (hu)'?n) represent 79 per to be detemlined) and the rural area (urban cent of the surface and I8 per cent of the population given by the census). The results are .. bl 2'1 population of whole area. gIven III ta e . This phenomenon has already been noticed We estimate the urban population of the by Weissberg and Thai Thi Ngoc Du (1998), agglomeration of HCMC to be 3,660,034 who compare it with the prevailing situation in inhabitants in 1999; that is 73 per cent of China: the population of the entire administrative unit. This calculated figure of the urban "The new [tei-ritoria/] organization which population includes the urban population of results FOIII it evokes the model oJthe Chinese the centre, that of the adjoining semi-urban cities integrating administratively their area, but also that of the small urban centres peripheral green belts" [Original in French]. of the peripheral rural area, what is justified The authors spot three advantages: by the complete integration of their population "-Iavoring the .food supply o{ a megapolis in the economic activities of the pole or' within which all the marketing circuits HCMC. In the near future, the megapolis will remained to be reconstructed; also integrate Bien Hoa city (466,945 - ensuring the control o{ the land in the inhabitants at 1999 census), situated in the urban suburbs and offering viable alternatives Northeast, in Dong Nai Province, which .for.fitture development or housing areas; already lies inside the economic sphere· ·of - allowing the collective and coherent influence of HCMC (location map in figure 2). definition ofa real city master plan even ifthe With regard to the previous censuses, we projects had been numerous in the past" observe some "relocation" of the population [Original in French]. We may add a fourth reason: the political 10. The urban population of the semi-urban area was calculated by interpolation, by noticing a will to ensure the food self-sufficiency at a low correlation (valid in this zone with relatively administrative level and therefore to decrease scattered dwellings) between the density of both population mobilities and commercial population by District and the proportion of exchanges between administrative units. urban population, a d.ensity lower than 2 This observation is opposite to the rcmark 500 inhab./km corresponding to 0 per cent urban population and a density of made by Drakakis-Smith and Dixon (1997) 10,000 inhab./kl11 2 to 100 per cent urban who consider that the largest urban population. New data will be fortunately agglomcrations in Vietnam go far beyond their available as People's Committee of HCMC administrative 1imits. A study of the urban organized a specific population census of HCMC agglomeration of HCMC thus needs that thc in October 2004, in the middle of the period urban population be exactly estimated. between two national censuses. I ,. It is useful to notice that two new Districts The calculation is not easy, because while were created by Govemmental Decree the census gives the urban population in the nO 130/2003 ND-CP of November, S'h, 2003: the "rural" Districts, it considers the population of urban District of Tan Phu (as part of Tan Binh the entire peripheral zone of the "urban" District) and the urban District of Binh Tan, as Districts (qu?n) as urban, which is obviously part of Binh Chanh District, which remains rural.

63 VIETNAM'S SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, No.40. Winter 2004 of the central Districts towards the social differentiation, due to economic peripheral zones, following the liberalization. However, migrants always instigations of the authorities, but also the settle down preferably .in the central fast increase of land prices in the centre Districts which are the closest to their of the city. This phenomenon has to be region of origin and to their working related to the increase of economic and place (densities map in figure 3). Table 2: Surface area, populatio/l and administrative units of Ho Chi Minh City at 1999 census

! Urban Estimated Total Percentage Surface area I Number of Density population at urban District 2 population of males 2 (km ) households (inhab.lkm ) census population (inhabitants) (%) (inhabitants)' (inhabitants) Total HCMC 2.093.7 1.016,744 5,034,058 48.1 2.404 4.207.825 3,660,034 ...... _.....• ...... •.•.•..•...... _...... ,. "Urban" Distncts 440,0 819,776 4.127.258 48,0 9,380 4.127.258 3.579,467 (9~~~)m .. Urban area ...... ••••••....M· ..... -...... ,...... Total urban area 140.3 660.193 3.386.004 47.8 24.134 3,386,004 3,386,004 __ _..•.....•.•.••• M._M.... •.••.•.•.•••.•.•.••..•. ..••_ M ...... •...... _. • _._.•...•.. _ ~_ .. _. 1~District 7.6 ' 47,475 226,151 46.6 29,757 226,151 226,151 ...... - . 3nJ District 4.8 43,942 222,448 46.9 46.343 222,448 222,448 ...... " __ - ' _.. . __ . 41h District 4.0 34,480 192, ;49 47.7 48.037 192,149 192,149 ...... -_...... _ . 51h District 4.1 40.257 209,528 47.2 51,104 209,528 209.528 ...... _ _ _...... _.. _...... _- _ . 61h District 7.0 47,156 252,527 48.1 36,075 252.527 252.527 ...-._ .. - _.. _-_..__._._- _._. . _.._ _...... -_ , __ _...... _ ~.•...•.._._ . 81h District 18.8 62.910 328,538 48.2 17,475 . 328.538 328,538 , _ -. . ~.... , _-- - ._ . .~O~~s.!~~._..?L._.._...~~c~?~_...._~~O.1?~...... __ ~~:?- .._.£~~?!.?49~1?? __.. ?~O~?? 11 1h District 5.0 43.770 238,494.~Z:? 47,6992~~~~~~ 238,494 .~?.-Y.~Pm._...... ~~:?m.m ... _~~~~._._ ...... ~g9.58~. __ ~~:? __. !?,]?4 309,?~?_.~g.~,~~~ Tan Binh 38.5 114.007 579,559 48.7 15,053 579,559 579.559 ...... __ ~ _ _...... _ _...... •._ __ _... .••...... _ _.. _...... Binh Thanh 20,5 78,228 403,065 47.8 19,662 1 403,065 403,065 p~.~.0~~~.~ ....••••••••••••••••••••••••.•.··.··.·.~,i:::: ..:j~~!::= .::1~j,~3! :..· :.·47.~:.: ...... :.·3§:Q~6 ·······i83,83!::1.~~~~~!: •••··

...... Semi-urban area Total semi 299.7 159,583 741,254 49.0 2.473 741,254 urban area 193.463 I···········..·· ...... · 1·······-..· .. ···.. 2nd District 50.2 21,716 102,094 49.3 2,034 102,094 16,437 ....··· ..· ....··1·· ..·· .. · ·..···.. ················.. ,1 7lh District 35.9 23,599 111,911 47.7 3,117 111,911 30,776 .. _ _ _.... . _. __ .__ _...... - ...... •_ _ -' 91h District 113.1 32,541 148,804 50.5 1,316 148,804 12,797 I·····..·.. ··············· ···········1·····..··..· :····· ..·· .. ····· f .. 121h District 52.5 36.838 168,639 48.8 3,212 168,639 48,062 ...... '.., -. . -.- _ _.._._._ -_.__.._ - _ __ ·_·r·_.._·..·.. M •••••• Thu Duc 48.0 44.889 209.806 48.6 4,371 209,806 85,391 ...... M...... , _. _(hyy~L."Rural" Dismcts 1.~S.~~~: ~~~~:68 :~~.8~~ ~_~:~ m_~~mmm~~~~~~. ~~:~~~_ Rural area Cu Chi 428,5 58,188 253,116 47.4 591 11,348 11.348 ..._ __.._._ _--_.- . _ _---_._ __. -_...... _ __.__ _-- .__._ _ , .. . _._--_ .._ _ .. Hoc Man 109,5 43,226 203,393 48.3 1,857 15,933 15,933 ' ..__•••M _ •••••_ ••_ ••••• _ ••••••• _ •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••_ ..__._ _.__• _._ . Binh Chanh 303.3 70,891 329,332 49.0 1,086 37,577 37,577 ...... _ M • _ ••_ _ _ __ • _._...... •••• ,.,. • _ •••• M Nha Be 98.4 12,836 62,804 49.2 638 15,709 15,709 _..__._ _--_...... _- _..__ _._.__._..__ __ _...... --"---"'--'-'" ._ - . CanGio 714,0 11.827 58,155 49.9 81 * According to the administratil'e definition ofthe census Sonr('(': General Statistics Office Vietnam. 2001.

64 ;" Figure 2: Admil/istrative limits of Ho Chi Miuh City (at 1999 Cel/sus) Figure 3: Populatio/l del/sities by District il/ Ho Chi Millh City 1 (pop.lkm ) ,,;... Tay Ninh Province C) 1;-'> ) -,~ ';';:--......

'~ / '~( "" '.., ./ '7 Q" / r ( '< J \ ...,'" "~?Blnh Ouong )" "-J\t '-'-' ::0- __-(J (: ~ ':;IJChi "7.,Province :J::: . ...-.---.,. \"_~":'-_" ::: Oong Nal . '] ~ ?rovlnce ,urban" dist"~t~", "--... :r~ Iguan B/en HOB City Uto:J/larea--,--- 1 1~1dIstrict 3 3,d d'$lrICl 4 4'" distrIct 1 r, 51 5U'1distrIct 6 6'" dIstrict I / 8· B'''-dIstrict I 101 101l'dlstrict Thu Th/em , 11 tn district GoVap Tan Bm SalOon South Blnh Thann

Long An Province

_ 41jJ)::;'ICtrr1Ofe 91 12' 12''' district ~enGia .. I~.l.~ID40,020 !D~ Thu D~ <'Rural" districts ~rl1',1}4 I~~, _I . ,...... ; '~ D l,3ll~IO::'1.2 . CU Chi Hoc Mon o UflIj;?II.3....;~ ") Blnh Chann Nl,a Be Can G,O

TI!I.J Thiem Development zone

District limit 501ll'ce: Complell'd 1'1'51111.1 of 1999 CenslIs ~ Limit between "urban" o 10 km ~ and "rural" districts

-.J VIETNAM'S SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, No.40. Winter 2004

The economic leadership of Ho Chi Minh absorbs 11.5 per cent of the regional City expenditures of the same budget, what shows HCMC concentrates a major part of the that the city feeds the national budget for the economic activities of the country (Weisberg, benefit of less favored zones (table 3). The city 1999; Gubry and Le Thi Huong, 2002). With is also the main attraction 'pole of foreign 6.7 per cent of the population and 0.6 per cent investments in Vietnam: 26.9 per cent of the of the surface area of Vietnam, for its entire cumulated direct foreign investments went to administrative unit, HCMC generates 17.3 per HCMC until December 31 se, 2000, as well as cent of the GDP of the country, 33.8 per cent 10.3 per cent of the direct foreign investments of the regional incomes of the state budget and during year 2000. Table 3: Place ofHo Chi Minh City in the national economy

Indicator Unit Vietnam HCMC '10 HCMCI Vietnam

Population 2000 Inhabitants 77,685,500 5,169,400 6.7 ...__._ _~_ __.._-_.__.. , - _--______. Surface area Km2 33 1,041 2,094 0.6

GDP 444,139 76,660 17.3

GDP/person US $ 450 1,307 290.0

Regional incomes of state budget Billion Dong 76,808.3 25,942.4 33.8 1999 11· .. ··········· · ·1· . Regional expenditures of state Billion Dong 39,100.8 4,497.0 11.5 budget 1999

Total foreign direct investment Billion US $ 39.10 I 10.519 26.9 (total capital at 31/12/2000)

Total foreign direct investment Billion US $ 2.012 0.207 10.3 (during year 2000)

Sources: Statistical yearhooks 2000 ojVietnam and ojHCMC

If we consider the entire "Southern key investors. [...} between 1996 and 1999, the economIc zone", which includes the region gathered 146.000 billion Dong of provinces of Dong Nai, Binh Duong, Ba investment. ie 45.7% ofthe national amount Ria-Vung Tau and Ho Chi Minh City, the and contributed from 44% to 51% 10 the primacy of the region in the state economy national CD? It welcom.ed thirty two new IS even more enormous: industrial parks. of which many are "[...] the economic growth rate equipped with modern' and competitive represents 1.5 times that 01' the national units" (Le Courrier du Viet-nam, Hanoi, growth. On the scale 01' the country. it nO 1841 of 08/0212000) [Original in represents 60% of the value 01' the exports. French]. 60% of the budgetary receipts, 50% of the Specifically concernmg foreign industrial value. . Without taking into investment, the "Southern key economi~ account the strong craze of foreign zone" collected 48.9 per cent of the

66 Pa/rick Gllhrv & Le Thi Hllo/lg cumulated capital on December 31 ", 1999 - strong economic growth, especially in and 66.2 per cent of the foreign investment urban areas, which develops many in Vietnam in 1999, offshore investment employment opportunities (notably In excluded (Vietnol1! Economic Till/cs, Ha.noi, informal sector) and attracts migrants, n° 72, February 2000, p. 32). because unemployment for new migrants is An interesting indication is given by the sti I1 brief; number of people connected to Internet: - increase of living standards differentials 58% of the people connected to Internet in and economic disparities between urban and Vietnam in 1998 were living in HCMC rural areas, which increases the incentive to (National Centre for Social Sciences and leave countryside; Humanities, 2001). - weakening of residential control; Table 3 shows clearly the influence that - current maintaining of a large the development pole of HCMC can have proportion of the population in rural areas on employment in the surrounding rural (76.5 per cent, following the definitions of ZOIlC, bLlt also in the rest of the country. the 1999 census); this means that there are What are the main components of the still high potentialities of rural-urban growth of HCMC? migration. The increasing role of rural-urban SeveraI recent spec ific surveys and migration studies give an extensive view of the factors 111 a context of advanced demographic and mechanisms of this kind of migration transition (total fertility rate: 2.2 in the (Truong Si Anh, 1994; Truong Si Anh et aI., whole country, 1.8 in HCMC), urban 1996a and 1996b; Vien Kinh Te Thanh Pho growth mainly results from rural-urban Ho Chi Minh, 1996 and 1997, Gubry et aI., migration. 2002). The annual growth of the urban The most recent project concerns a population of HCMC is currently about 3.6 survey in 1999 on migration to HCMC from per cent (natural increase: 1.1 per cent; Can Giuoc District, a rural area in the migration increase and progressive Mekong delta region. This survey had an integration of surrounding rural areas or original. methodology which consisted' in "reclassification": 2.5 per cent). With 'this following the migrants from the countryside constant rate of increase, the urban to the city ("tracing survey"). This enabled population of HCMC would be 6.443 the researchers to get the opinions about the million in 2015, 8.000 million in 2020 and move both of the parents who remained in 10.953 million in 2030. Ho\"ever, we can countryside. and the migrants living in expect that HCMC's share of the rural HCMC; this is of great interest in assessing urban migration is going to increase the future of rural-urban migration. substantially during the coming years for The impact of rural-urban migration is many reasons, in the' context of the felt differently by the parents who still live renovation policy: in the village and by the migrants who - development of domestic and foreign originated from the same household and are investments (much higher in the large living in the city. Strong differences also cities); exist according to whether we are

67: VIETNAM'S SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, No.40, Winter 2004 measuring the impact on the family, on the village or on the whole country (table 4). Table 4; Assessmellt ofimpact of rural-urball migratioll by both parellts ill Call Giuoc alld migrallt ill Ho Chi Millh City (%)

Destination of impact Respondent Impact is Total Positive Negative Don't know

Impact on Parents in CG 82.3 2.5 15.2 100.0

Family Migrant in HCMC 88.2 1.7 10.1 100.0 ...... _..... f···· _ _-_ _ _ _-_.. . _._ _-_._._.- _-_._._.._...... Impact on Parents in CG 69.5 2.5 28.0 100.0

Village Migrant in HCMC 41.6 4.5 53.9 100.0

Impact on Parents in CG 48.9 1.2 49.9 100.0 1- ...... •...... 1·····················_···- Country Migranl in HCMC 22.7 3.1 74.2 100.0

SO/lrcc: 5/5 migrants in HCMC and their 515 families ill Can Gilloc (Gubry el al., 2002)

The most positive opinions are expressed the departure of one of their family by the migrants concerning the impact on members to the city. This could be a their family, as 88 per cent of the migrants powerful factor influencing rural-urban consider it as positive. This result is migration in the future. difficult to analyse because some migrants Opinions are generally positive about all included in their family the part of their the kinds of impacts (on the family, on the family living in the city, as well as the part village and on the country); they become of their family staying in the village; so, one however much less asserted as a wider unit cannot know if the "positive impact" applies is examined. Concerning impact on the more or less to the one or to the other part country, 74 per cent of the migrants answer of the family, or to the family in the broad that they don't know; the high proportion sense, taken as a whole. This observation doubting is probably instigated by the can explain why the migrant estimates his pervasive ideology -particularly accessible migration in such a positive way; this is the to the migrants who live in the city- which direct justification of his move and of the considers rural exodus as a plague for the durability of his residence in the city, which nation; however, this doubt also has an results from the conjunction between the objective reason: they may think they have obvious improvement of his own situation insufficient information to evaluate these and the effort that he estimates to carry out consequences. to improve the living conditions of his There is a wide difference between the relatives who remained in the village. opinions of the parents and those of the However, the positive impact of the migrants as regards the impact on the migration on the family seems obvious, in village and especially the impact on the the arrival area, as well as in the departure country. The parents have a more sharply area: it is noteworthy that 82 per'cent of the positive opinion than the migrants; they are parents consider as positive for their family

68 Par rick Guhry & Le Thi Huong

moreover In the best place to assess the with concentration in the centre and dilution impact on the village. Even there, the lower on the edges, but according to the pattern 0/ . number of positive answers about the a bamboo, whose rhizomes run through a impact on the country can be attributed to space without apparently modifying it to the negative information accessible to the give shoots somewhere else, there where are migrants. small and medium sized towns with which At least, whatever may be the real the big city deals directly", consequences of the rural-urban migration to This kil~d of development has been HCMC, they are considered as very positive compared to a metastasis by Asher (1995), by the most directly concerned people: the as he defined the "metapolis". It is related to migrants themselves and their parents. the development of a rapid transportation Future trends: the process of system. "metropolisation" and the urban growth Therefore, the current projects are very HCMC began a long time ago to include ambitious. Given its location and the in its urban area some surrounding medium conditions of the Pacific Rim market, Saigon sized towns; this was especially the case in South is the first step in the enlargement of the past as Saigon merged with Cholon HCMC growing metropolis (Skidmore, (which was more populated) and with Gia Owings and Merril, 1994). The development of Dinh. It will include in the future most of Saigon South is seen as a key component of the localities belonging to its metropolitan Vietnam's comprehensive plans for the regIon, "Southern key economic zone" which includes The process of "metropolisation" concerns HCMC, Bien Hoa and Vung Tau (Ton Si Kinh first the densi fication of the suburbs and the and Do Thi Loan, 1996). This region is also equipment of the new urban Districts poised to become a centre for international (created in 1996). Three main development finance, trade, cultural, scientific, high areas have been defined: (I) in the East, technology, transportation and tourism Thu Duc and the new Districts 9 and 2, (2) development in Vietnam. The Saigon South the Thu Thiem urban center, (3) the new project presents a historic opportunity for area of Saigon South (District 7, Nha Be Vietnam and HCMC to reintegrate the global and Binh Chanh) (Uy Ban Nhan Nhan Dan economy, especially in Southeast Asia, in the Thanh Pho Ho Chi Minh, 1996). future. The opening of a stock, exchange market in HCMC is another step of this The "metropolisation" concerns also the process. The "metropolisation" of HCMC is widening of the economic influence of HCMC therefore the obvious sign of the entry of on several towns and economic zones located Vietnam into the process of globalization far away without continuous built-up area. This (Carroue, 2002). kind of development has been well analysed in China by Gentelle (2000): Similarities and specificities of Ho Chi "The way the Chinese cities, the largest Minh City compared to other megacities ;,/ particular, al/ract populations and Though the increase of the productivity aUi\'ities h,' \videning their sphere of due to urbanization and the international influence on their surroundings does 110t role of HCMC have been quoted, the work according to the pal/ern a/an oil stain, negative aspects of a fast urban growth were

69 VIETNAM'S SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, No.40, Winter 2004 more often analysed and are going to worry the large multipolar zone which could relieve authorities for many years (Bolay, 1998). congestion in the main centre was All the problems of town planning emphasized. inherent to megacities (Oberai, 1993) are However, several factors are relatively already present in HCMC where they have specific to HCMC and will deeply influence begun to be studied. We shall quote only future urbanization: some of these studies: 1°) The essential role of water. - Employment, especially noting that the Besides' allowing the presence of the opportunities of employment remain very port, water is the determining element of numerous thanks to the informal sector, in HCMC's environment. The city does not yet spite of an increase in the unemployment have a central water-treatment plant; in rate (Truong Si Anh et aI., 1996a; Campbell; these conditions, its low altitude and the 1999); alternation of tides, hinder waste water flow. , :- Persistence ~or even increase-of The city is a part of what Timmerman and poverty among several categories of the White (1997) called "megahydropolis", population, and living conditions (Drakakis which may be weakened by climate chaDge. Smith and Dixon, 1997; Gubry et aI., 2002); 2°) The importance of the recent - Housing (Nguyen Quang Vinh and economic liberalization. Leaf. 1996; Bolay et aI., 1997; Parenteau; The opening to the market was 1997; Coit, 1998; Bassand et aI., 2000); accompanied by a decline of the subsidized - Water problems (Bassand et aI., 2000); economy. This has a strong influence on urbanization as on the other fields; it - Spatial structure and commuting notably 'leads to a rapid increase of land movements (Do Thi Loan, 1994); prices and housing, despite the fact that in - Urban transportation and traffic jams right, the land still belongs to the state. (Schmitt, 1997); So, Nguyen Quang Vinh and Leaf (1996) - Local administration (Durand, 1997; observe: Nguyen, 1999); "Popular housing can be looked upon as , - Urban environment (Thai Thi Ngoc Du intrinsically a doi moi phenomenon as it et aI., 1993; Paienteau, 1997), etc. arises from such policy changes as the loss The problem of urban environment in of housing subsidy, the relaxation of HCMC, which includes water and air controls on population movement and the pollution, and garbage treatment, is the one institutionalisation of land markets to which worries people the most, as related in stimulate urban development ". various surveys. In all these domains, the 3°) A well-developed urban network. Chinese experience may give useful lessons The urbanization of HCMC takes part in (.Iones and Visaria, 1997). a relatively well-developed urban network Many of these problems are related to in Vietnam (Vu Tu Lap and Taillar.d, 1994). the obsolescence of urban infrastructures, to Jones (1997) notes that this fact can slow their saturation and to the lack of resources. down "megapolisation": In th is context, the interest to develop " ... Jakarta, Bangkok and Manila would secondary Gentres in order to generate a not yet have reached megacity status if

70 P(l/rick CI/hrr & Le Thi Huvng

Indonesia. Thailand and (he Philippines Conclusion .had developed more balanced city size Ho Chi Minh City can be considered in a hierarchies ", lot of consideration as the economic capital 4°) The development of urban economic of Vietnam. However, on a purely numeric activities in the rural hinterland.. level, considering the most usual definitions The region of HCMC and particularly (from 5 millions to 10 mi,lIions inhabitants), the Mekong delta are clearly a part of this Ho Chi Minh City is not yet a megacity, kind of region that McGee (1991) called although definitions change according to the "Desakota", a word created from. two author, even the definitions of United Indonesian terms ("village" and "town"). A Nations. desakota region is characterized by: Ho Chi Minh City (formerly Saigon) is a - a dense population engaged in relatively recent city in Vietnam, as it was· smallllOlder cultiv~tion. commonly 0.[ wet officially created in !..698. Its population rice: experienced a chaotic evolution as a result of the. hazards of history. Globally, we saw - an increase in non-agricultural activities: that the population of the city experienced - a well-developed inf;-astructure roads 0.1' three major crises: in 1859-1861 (conquest and canals: by the French), in 1954-1956 (end of th~. - a reservoir oJcheap labour: Indochina War) and in 1975-1979 (end of - highly integrated 'transactive' environments the Vietnam War). in terms of movements oJ people and The estimation of the current urban commodities: and population is made difficult by the fact that - a state perception as being 'invisible' or the limits of the administrative unit of Ho 'grey' zones" (Dick and Rimmer, 1998). Chi Minh City still contain a high This kind of regIOn corresponds proportion of rural population. Urban relatively well to what was called in population has thus been estimated between Europe, in another ecological environment, 3.7 million to 4.2 million in 1999. "rurbanisation", Dick and Rimmer (1998) Since the implementation of the minimIze the analysis of McGee by Renovation policy (economic liberalization) emphasizing rather the resemblances in 1986, the population of Ho Chi Minh between the urbanization in Southeast Asia City, stagnant for a long time, again entered and the United States. However, it is clear a stage of growth. that this phenomenon, which gives Economic liberalization not only additional incomes to the rural population, developed rural-urban migration, but also could also slow down the "megapolisation". intra-urban migrations. Recent movements Taking into account the objective are rather directed from the centre towards differentials between city and countryside the suburbs, mainly because of the increase and the results of the most recent surveys, of land price in the city center. This we may however predict that rural-urban phenomenon has to be related to the migration will anyway prevail for many increase of economic and social years. differentiation.

71 VIETNAM'S SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, No.40, Winter 2004

Besides the raw figure of its population, much concerned, because while the Ho Chi Minh City has already many employment problems are still largely characteristics which we easily attribute to resolved by the dynamism of informal megacities. Among them, the drainage of a sector, the evolution of infrastructure, large part of investments and the production transportation and urban environment are of a large part of national wealth have to be already very worrisome-, put at first place. Within a short time, Ho Chi Minh City Rural-urban migration is going to play will thus undoubtedly become the first an incrcasing role in the urban growth of Ho Vietnamese megacity, whatever current Chi'Minh City. On one hand natural growth definitions of the megacity may be./. reac hed the rep Iacement level of gendations, on the other hand rural

" . REFERENCES popul,1tion remaIns very high In the Asher Fran90is, 1995, Metapolis ou I'avenir des migration pool of the city and countrymen villes. Paris: Odile Jacob, 345 p. consider in very high majority the migration towards the city as "very positive". These Ban Chi Dao Tong Dieu Tra Dan So va Nha 0 factors may feed rural-urban migration Thanh Pho Ho Chi Minh, 2000, Bao cao tong ket. duri ng many years. Tong dieu tra dan so va nha 0 1/4/1999. TP.HCM, khong co so trang. The economic predominance of Ho Chi fExecwil'e Committee of the Population and Minh City and its growth engender a Housing Cellsus of Ho Chi Millh City. 2000. Final process of "metropolisation", progressively Report. Population and housing censlls of April l'" including the neighbouring rural areas and /999. HCMC. not paginated./ the close medium sized towns, without a Bassand Michel, Thai Thi Ngoc Du, Tarradellas necessarily continuum of the built urban Joseph, Cunha Antonio, Bolay Jean-Claude (dir.), zone,. Important projects of urban planning 2000, Metropolisation, cnse ecologique et we're conceived to manage this process, developpement durable. L'eau et I'habitat precaire a which appears as the obvious sign of the Ho Chi Minh Ville, Vietnam. Lausanne: Presses entry of Vietnam in globalization. Polytechniques et Universitaires Romandes, XII Ho Chi Minh City presents numerous 296 p. (Science, Technique, Societe). resemblances with other megacities. Its Baudrit Andr(>, 1943, Guide historique des specificities are the dominating role of rues de Saigon. Saigon: SILl, 532 p. water, the importance of the recent process Bolay Jean-Claude, 1998, Ho Chi Minh Ville : of economic liberalization, the insertion of chronique d'une metropolisation annoncee. the city in a well developed urban network Urbollisme, nO 303, p. 14-19. and thei'mportance of non agricultural Bolay Jean-Claude, Cartoux Sophie, Cunha activities in the surrounding rural area. Antonio, Thai Thi Ngoc Du, Bassand Michel, 1997, These specificities have an ambivalent Sustainable development and urban growth: effect on "megapolisation" process, but precarious habitat and water management in Ho Chi factors which may accelerate this process Minh City. Habiwt /mel'llatiollal, vol. 21, !l°2, seem prevai li ng by far. p. 185-197 This phenomenon appears to be to a Brennan, Ellcn M., 1997, La proliferation des large extend irreversible, aud authorities are mcgapolcs: 7 cn 1950, 33 en 2015, un dcfi

72 Patrick Gubry & Le Thi Huollg

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