DOCSLIB.ORG

Martin Rees OUR FINAL HOUR a Scientist's Warning

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Martin Rees OUR FINAL HOUR a Scientist's Warning Martin Rees OUR FINAL HOUR A Scientist's Warning: How Terror, Error, and Environmental Disaster Threaten Humankind's Future in This Century— On Earth and Beyond International Acclaim for Martin Rees's OUR FINAL HOUR "[Rees's] cautionary tale comes as a useful counterbalance to some of the overly optimistic books recently penned by scientists . Our Final Hour neither worships nor condemns modern science, but it does offer a clear, concise account of what may be our most urgent concerns in the 21st century." —The Globe and Mail (Toronto) "Doomsday books have appeared for centuries. But Rees' book is unique, and not only because of his fame as a Cambridge University professor who is not prone to making scary public statements." —San Francisco Chronicle "One of the most provocative and unsettling books I have read for many years . That a scientist so distinguished as Rees should air these fierce anxieties is a sign that something is amiss." —J. G. Ballard, The Daily Mail (London) "Rees invites us to also consider developments that many of us probably never thought about, including: Could environmental degradation lead to a "war for water"? Could machines-designed plants crowd natural plants out of the ecosystem? These ideas may inspire skepticism, but within Rees' logic, they seem far from impossible. But Rees does not simply outline his theories. Throughout, he repeatedly implies something else: We can do something to help." ________________ Associated Press OTHER BOOKS BY MART.N REES INCLUDE Graves Fatal Attraction: Black Holes in the Umverse with Mitchell Begelman Before the Beginning: Our Universe and Others Just Six Numbers: The Deep Forces That Shape the Universe Our Cosmic Habitat BASIC B BOOKS A Member of the Perseus Books Group New York Copyright © 2003 by Martin Rees Published by Basic Books, A Member of the Perseus Books Group Hardback first published in 2003 by Basic Books Paperback first published in 2004 by Basic Books All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this book may be reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews. For information, address Basic Books, 387 Park Avenue South, New York, NY 10016 Books published by Basic Books are available at special discounts for bulk purchases in the United States by corporations, institutions, and other organizations. For more information, please contact the Special Markets Department at the Perseus Books Group, 11 Cambridge Center, Cambridge, MA 02142, or call (617) 252-5298, (800) 255-1514 or e-mail [email protected]. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Rees, Martin J., 1942- Our final hour: A scientist's warning: How terror, error, and environmental disaster threaten humankind's future in this century— on Earth and beyond / Martin Rees. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-465-0682-6 (he); ISBN 0-465-06863-4 (pbk) 1. Twenty-first century—Forecasts. 2. Disasters—Forecasts. 3. End of the world. 1. Title. CB161.R38 2003 3O3.49'oo'o5—dc21 2003000301 Design by Jane Raese Text set in 11 point Janson 04 05 06 / 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 CONTENTS PROLOGUE ............................................................................................................................................................................. 7 2. TECHNOLOGY SHOCK ................................................................................................................................................... 15 A Human or Posthuman Future? ............................................................................................................................................. 25 3. THE DOOMSDAY CLOCK .............................................................................................................................................. 33 4. POST-2000 THREATS Terror and Error .......................................................................................................................... 49 5. PERPETRATORS AND PALLIATIVES .......................................................................................................................... 69 6. SLOWING SCIENCE DOWN? ......................................................................................................................................... 79 7 BASELINE NATURAL HAZARDS .................................................................................................................................. 95 Asteroid Impacts ..................................................................................................................................................................... 95 A Low Risk, but Not Negligible ............................................................................................................................................. 98 Reducing the Risk? ............................................................................................................................................................... 100 8. HUMAN THREATS TO EARTH .................................................................................................................................... 104 9. EXTREME RISKS ........................................................................................................................................................... 116 Our "Final" Experiment? ...................................................................................................................................................... 120 11.THE END OF SCIENCE? ............................................................................................................................................... 141 12. DOES OUR FATE HAVE COSMIC SIGNIFICANCE? ............................................................................................... 156 13. BEYOND EARTH ......................................................................................................................................................... 168 NOTES ................................................................................................................................................................................. 185 PREFACE SCIENCE IS ADVANCING FASTER THAN EVER, and on a broader front: bio-, cyber- and nanotechnology all offer exhilarating prospects; so does the exploration of space. But there is a dark side: new science can have unintended consequences; it empowers individuals to perpetrate acts of megaterror; even innocent errors could be catastrophic. The "downside" from twenty-first century technology could be graver and more intractable than the threat of nuclear devastation that we have faced for decades. And human-induced pressures on the global environment may engender higher risks than the age-old hazards of earthquakes, eruptions, and asteroid impacts. This book, though short, ranges widely. Separate chapters can be read almost independently: they deal with the arms race, novel technologies, environmental crises, the scope and limits of scientific invention, and prospects for life beyond the Earth. I've benefited from discussions with many specialists; some of them will, however, find my cursory presentation differently slanted from their personal assessment. But these are controversial themes, as indeed are all "scenarios" for the long-term future. If nothing else, I hope to stimulate discussion on how to guard (as far as is feasible) against the worst risks, while deploying new knowledge optimally for human benefit. Scientists and technologists have special obligations. But this perspective should strengthen everyone's concern, in our interlinked world, to focus public policies on communities who feel aggrieved or are most vulnerable. I thank John Brockman for encouraging me to write the book. I'm grateful to him and to Elizabeth Maguire for being so patient, and to Christine Marra and her colleagues for their efficient and expeditious efforts to get it into print. OUR FINAL HOUR PROLOGUE THE TWENTIETH CENTURY BROUGHT US THE BOMB, and the nuclear threat will never leave us; the short-term threat from terrorism is high on the public and political agenda; inequalities in wealth and welfare get ever wider. My primary aim is not to add to the burgeoning literature on these challenging themes, but to focus on twenty-first century hazards, currently less familiar, that could threaten humanity and the global environment still more. Some of these new threats are already upon us; others are still conjectural. Populations could be wiped out by lethal "engineered" airborne viruses; human character may be changed by new techniques far more targeted and effective than the nostrums and drugs familiar today; we may even one day be threatened by rogue nanomachines that replicate catastrophically, or by superintelligent computers. Other novel risks cannot be completely excluded. Experiments that crash atoms together with immense force could start a chain reaction that erodes everything on Earth; the experiments could even tear the fabric of space itself, an ultimate "Doomsday" catastrophe whose fallout spreads at the speed of light to engulf the entire universe. These latter scenarios may be exceedingly unlikely, but they raise in extreme form the issue of who should decide, and how, whether to proceed with experiments that have a genuine scientific purpose (and could conceivably offer practical benefits), but that pose a very tiny risk of an
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Edward M. Eyring
    The Chemistry Department 1946-2000 Written by: Edward M. Eyring Assisted by: April K. Heiselt & Kelly Erickson Henry Eyring and the Birth of a Graduate Program In January 1946, Dr. A. Ray Olpin, a physicist, took command of the University of Utah. He recruited a number of senior people to his administration who also became faculty members in various academic departments. Two of these administrators were chemists: Henry Eyring, a professor at Princeton University, and Carl J. Christensen, a research scientist at Bell Laboratories. In the year 2000, the Chemistry Department attempts to hire a distinguished senior faculty member by inviting him or her to teach a short course for several weeks as a visiting professor. The distinguished visitor gets the opportunity to become acquainted with the department and some of the aspects of Utah (skiing, national parks, geodes, etc.) and the faculty discover whether the visitor is someone they can live with. The hiring of Henry Eyring did not fit this mold because he was sought first and foremost to beef up the graduate program for the entire University rather than just to be a faculty member in the Chemistry Department. Had the Chemistry Department refused to accept Henry Eyring as a full professor, he probably would have been accepted by the Metallurgy Department, where he had a courtesy faculty appointment for many years. Sometime in early 1946, President Olpin visited Princeton, NJ, and offered Henry a position as the Dean of the Graduate School at the University of Utah. Henry was in his scientific heyday having published two influential textbooks (Samuel Glasstone, Keith J.
    [Show full text]
  • Kenosis and Nature
    from John Polkinghorne, ed., The Work of Love: Creation as Kenosis. Grand Rapids, MI: Wm. Eeerdmans Publishing Co., and London: SPCK, 2001, pp. 43-65. Kenosis and Nature HOLMES ROLSTON, III Every commonplace detail of nature, every stone and tree, includes an immense richness and variety of lesser detail: in every fragment of it a thousand million lesser fragments cohere and interact. Loves Endeavour, Love's Expense, p. 84 Unless a grain of wheat falls into the earth and dies, it remains alone; but if it dies, it bears much fruit. John 12:24 1. Selfish Genes, Selfish Organisms, and Survival of the Fittest If one compares the general worldview of biology with that of theology, it first seems that there is only stark contrast. To move from Darwinian na- ture to Christian theology, one will have to change the sign of natural his- tory, from selfish genes to suffering love. Theologians also hold that, in regeneration, humans with their sinful natures must be reformed to lives that are more altruistic, also requiring a change of sign. But the problem lies deeper; all of biological nature can seem to run counter to what Jesus teaches: that one ought to lay down one s life for others. In nature, there is no altruism, much less kenosis. 43 HOLMES ROLSTON, III Life, coded by the genes, is always encapsulated in particular organ- isms. In biology we find, at once and pervasively, the organism as a bounded somatic "self" — something quite unknown in physics, chemis- try, astronomy, meteorology, or geology. The general Darwinian interpre- tive framework moves from the coding genes to the coping organisms and sees organisms so constituted genetically that self-interested (typically la- beled "selfish") behavior is inevitable.
    [Show full text]
  • Cold Fusion: Comments on the State of Scientific Proof
    SPECIAL SECTION: LOW ENERGY NUCLEAR REACTIONS Cold fusion: comments on the state of scientific proof Michael C. H. McKubre* SRI International, Menlo Park, CA, USA examples of error given at any level of scientific sophisti- Early criticisms were made of the scientific claims made by Martin Fleischmann and Stanley Pons in cation. If pressed the authority of experts in the fields of 1989 on their observation of heat effects in electro- nuclear or particle physics are invoked, or early publica- chemically driven palladium–deuterium experiments tions of null results by ‘influential laboratories’ – that were consistent with nuclear but not chemical or Caltech, MIT, Bell Labs, Harwell. Almost to a man these stored energy sources. These criticisms were prema- experts have long ago retired or deceased, and the authors ture and adverse. In the light of 25 years further study of these early publications of ‘influential laboratories’ of the palladium–deuterium system, what is the state have long since left the field and not returned. The issue of proof of Fleischmann and Pons’ claims? of ‘long ago’ is important as it establishes a time window in which information was gathered sufficient for some to Keywords: Cold fusion, Fleischmann, Pons, scientific draw a permanent conclusion – some time between 23 proof. March 1989 and ‘long ago’. Absurdly for a matter of this seeming importance, ‘long ago’ usually dates to the Spring Meeting of the American Physical Society (APS) Introduction on 1 May 1989. So the whole matter was reported and then comprehensively dismissed within 40 days (and, THE question under discussion is whether the phenome- presumably, 40 nights).
    [Show full text]
  • A Critical Look at Catastrophe Risk Assessments
    CERN-TH/2000-029 DAMTP-2000-105 hep-ph/0009204 A critical look at catastrophe risk assessments Adrian Kent Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Silver Street, Cambridge CB3 9EW, U.K. (September 15, 2000) Recent papers by Busza et al. (BJSW) and Dar et al. (DDH) argue that astrophysical data can be used to establish small bounds on the risk of a \killer strangelet" catastrophe scenario in forthcoming collider experiments. The case for the safety of the experiments set out by BJSW does not rely on these bounds, but on theoretical arguments, which BJSW find sufficiently compelling to firmly exclude any possibility of catastrophe. However, DDH and other commentators (initially including BJSW) have suggested that these empirical bounds alone do give sufficient reassurance. We note that this seems unsupportable when the bounds are expressed in terms of expected cost | a good measure, according to standard risk 8 analysis arguments. For example, DDH's main bound, pcatastrophe < 2 10− , implies only that the expectation value of the number of deaths is bounded by 120. × We thus reappraise the DDH and BJSW risk bounds by comparing risk policy in other areas. 15 We find that requiring a catastrophe risk of no higher than 10− per year is necessary to be consistent with established policy for risk optimisation from radiation≈ hazards, even if highly risk tolerant assumptions are made and no value is placed on the lives of future generations. A respectable case can be made for requiring a bound many orders of magnitude smaller. We conclude that the costs of small risks of catastrophe have been significantly underestimated in the physics literature, with obvious implications for future policy.
    [Show full text]
  • A Brief Look at Mathematics and Theology Philip J
    Humanistic Mathematics Network Journal Issue 27 Article 14 Winter 1-1-2004 A Brief Look at Mathematics and Theology Philip J. Davis Brown University Follow this and additional works at: http://scholarship.claremont.edu/hmnj Part of the Logic and Foundations of Mathematics Commons, Mathematics Commons, and the Religious Thought, Theology and Philosophy of Religion Commons Recommended Citation Davis, Philip J. (2004) "A Brief Look at Mathematics and Theology," Humanistic Mathematics Network Journal: Iss. 27, Article 14. Available at: http://scholarship.claremont.edu/hmnj/vol1/iss27/14 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Journals at Claremont at Scholarship @ Claremont. It has been accepted for inclusion in Humanistic Mathematics Network Journal by an authorized administrator of Scholarship @ Claremont. For more information, please contact [email protected]. 1 A Brief Look at Mathematics and Theology Philip J. Davis "Such a really remarkable discovery. I wanted your opinion on it. You know the formula m over naught equals infinity, m being any positive number? [m/0 = ]. Well, why not reduce the equation to a simpler form by multiplying both sides by naught? In which case you have m equals infinity times naught [m = x 0]. That is to say, a positive number is the product of zero and infinity. Doesn't that demonstrate the creation of the Universe by an infinite power out of nothing? Doesn't it?" Aldous Huxley, Point Counter Point, (1928), Chapter XI. I Introduction We are living in a mathematical age. Our lives, from the personal to the communal, from the communal to the international, from the biological and physical to the economic and even to the ethical, are increasingly mathematicized.
    [Show full text]
  • The Emergent, Self-Explaining Universe of Paul Davies – a Summary and Christian Response
    S & CB (2012), 24, 33–53 0954–4194 PAUL HIMES The Emergent, Self-explaining Universe of Paul Davies – a Summary and christian Response Physicist Paul Davies has emerged as one of the most popular scientists of the twenty-first century, despite his critique of the scientific establishment and its perceived failure to account for the origins and rational nature of the universe. Davies argues that the scientific consensus on cosmology rests on faith, both in its failure to provide an ultimate explanation for the origin of the universe and in its blind acceptance of its rational laws. As an alternative, Davies postulates an ‘emergent’ universe which contains the cause of its own existence and which renders unnecessary any sort of a personal deity. Yet Davies’s alternative falls short of providing a satisfactory cosmic explanation. Davies himself cannot adequately account for the principle of backward causation which creates his universe, and thus his paradigm still relies on a transcendent principle that remains unexplained. Furthermore, Davies’s objections against a personal god can be answered on philosophical grounds. Thus Davies’s hypothesis does not provide a superior alternative to the Christian view of God. key words: Paul Davies, physics, universe, emergent, self-causation, quantum mechanics, cosmology, time, teleology, cosmological argument, fine-tuning introduction Douglas Adams’ classic Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy tells the story of an advanced civilisation that builds a magnificent supercomputer for the sole purpose of providing the ultimate answer to the meaning of ‘life, the universe, and everything’. After millions of years of calculation, the an- swer, much to the confusion and frustration of the advanced civilisation, turns out to be ‘42’.1 Physicist Paul C.
    [Show full text]
  • Debating Design from Darwin to DNA
    P1: IRK 0521829496agg.xml CY335B/Dembski 0 521 82949 6 April 13, 2004 10:0 Debating Design From Darwin to DNA Edited by WILLIAM A. DEMBSKI Baylor University MICHAEL RUSE Florida State University iii P1: IRK 0521829496agg.xml CY335B/Dembski 0 521 82949 6 April 13, 2004 10:0 published by the press syndicate of the university of cambridge The Pitt Building, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, United Kingdom cambridge university press The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB22RU, UK 40 West 20th Street, New York, NY 10011-4211, USA 477 Williamstown Road, Port Melbourne, VIC 3207, Australia Ruiz de Alarcon´ 13, 28014 Madrid, Spain Dock House, The Waterfront, Cape Town 8001, South Africa http://www.cambridge.org C Cambridge University Press 2004 This book is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published 2004 Printed in the United States of America Typeface ITC New Baskerville 10/12 pt. System LATEX2ε [TB] A catalog record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication data available ISBN 0 521 82949 6 hardback iv P1: IRK 0521829496agg.xml CY335B/Dembski 0 521 82949 6 April 13, 2004 10:0 Contents Notes on Contributors page vii introduction 1. General Introduction 3 William A. Dembski and Michael Ruse 2. The Argument from Design: A Brief History 13 Michael Ruse 3. Who’s Afraid of ID? A Survey of the Intelligent Design Movement 32 Angus Menuge part i: darwinism 4.
    [Show full text]
  • Electrochemist and Cold Fusion Pioneer Dr. Martin
    Martin Fleischmann’s Historic Impact Compiled by Christy L. Frazier, with assistance from Michael McKubre and Marianne Macy lectrochemist and cold fusion pioneer Dr. Martin Fleischmann passed away on August 3 in the comfort E of his home in Salisbury, England, with his family by his side. He was 85. Fleischmann was born March 29, 1927 in Karlovy Vary, Czechoslovakia to a Jewish father and Catholic mother. In a 1996 interview with Chris Tinsley in IE #11 (http://www.infinite-energy.com/iemagazine/issue11/ fleishmann.html), Fleischmann related a harrowing story about his family’s escape from Nazi-occupied Czechoslovakia in 1938: “I always tell people I had the unique and unpleasurable experience of being arrested by the Gestapo at the age of 11...[M]y father was very badly beaten up by the Nazis. However, we got out. We were driv- en across the border by a First World War comrade-in-arms of my father...At that time, my parents also got permission to come to England, and we all got on the train in Prague and came to the Dutch border and the Germans cleared the train of all refugees and we were in the last coach and my father said, ‘No, sit tight, don’t get off the train,’ and the train pulled out of the station. So that’s how we got away the second time, and arrived at Liverpool Street Station with 27 shillings and sixpence between the four of us.” Fleischmann’s father died soon after the family emigrated to England, as a result of his mistreatment at the hands of Nazis.
    [Show full text]
  • Efficient Responses to Catastrophic Risk Richard A
    University of Chicago Law School Chicago Unbound Journal Articles Faculty Scholarship 2006 Efficient Responseso t Catastrophic Risk Richard A. Posner Follow this and additional works at: https://chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/journal_articles Part of the Law Commons Recommended Citation Richard A. Posner, "Efficient Responseso t Catastrophic Risk," 6 Chicago Journal of International Law 511 (2006). This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Faculty Scholarship at Chicago Unbound. It has been accepted for inclusion in Journal Articles by an authorized administrator of Chicago Unbound. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Efficient Responses to Catastrophic Risk Richard A. Posner* The Indian Ocean tsunami of December 2004 has focused attention on a type of disaster to which policymakers pay too little attention-a disaster that has a very low or unknown probability of occurring but that if it does occur creates enormous losses. Great as the death toll, physical and emotional suffering of survivors, and property damage caused by the tsunami were, even greater losses could be inflicted by other disasters of low (but not negligible) or unknown probability. The asteroid that exploded above Siberia in 1908 with the force of a hydrogen bomb might have killed millions of people had it exploded above a major city. Yet that asteroid was only about two hundred feet in diameter, and a much larger one (among the thousands of dangerously large asteroids in orbits that intersect the earth's orbit) could strike the earth and cause the total extinction of the human race through a combination of shock waves, fire, tsunamis, and blockage of sunlight wherever it struck.
    [Show full text]
  • European Technology Agency ANTEPRIMA.Pdf
    revision copy revision copy Associazione Culturale Diàlexis is a Think Tank founded in 2006 at the occasion of the celebration of the 50 years of the Rome Treaty. It published, at that occasion, with the publishing house Alpina, the Book ―50 Years of Europe, Images and Reflections‖, and organised in the Palace of the Piedmont Region the exhibition ―Immagini e riflessioni per i 50 anni d‘Europa‖. It has the aim of diffusing in Piedmont the knowledge of Europe and in Europe the knowledge of the Piedmont. Baustellen Europas is a bookseries devoted to Europa as cultural construction, previously published by Alpina, and now by Associazione Culturale Diàlexis Riccardo Lala, chairman of the Associazione, has participated to the making of Europe in the most diverse capacities: youth movements, trade associations, national and European civil and military public service, trade unionism, management of financial and industrial European multinationals in the areas of fashion, chemistry, energy, high tech, transportation, defense, services and publishing. He negotiated and drafted the founding documents of ELV, the company manufacturing the Vega Launcher of Arianespace, the 1st stage of Ariane as well the AVUM body of the European reusable space vehicle. revision copy revision copy Copyright 2020 By Riccardo Lala All rights of paper and digital reproduction or adaptation, partial or total, by whichever means (including microfilms and photocopies) are reserved for all countries. The publisher may grant, under payment, the authorization to reproduce a
    [Show full text]
  • An Interview with Professor Martin Fleischmann
    An Interview with Professor Martin Fleischmann By Christopher P. Tinsley Reprinted courtesy of and originally published in Infinite Energy Magazine Issue #11 http://www.infinite-energy.com/iemagazine/issue11/fleishmann.html November 1996 Christopher Tinsley: Now that you are retired from IMRA, what do you intend to do? Are you really retired? Martin Fleischmann: I don't suppose I'll ever retire completely. I retired from full-time work at the University of Southampton when I was age 56, but I didn't "retire." I started a number of part-time projects and, eventually, of course went full-time to IMRA Europe. At the moment I am taking a very careful look at some of the work which we have done in the past. It has been suggested at various times that I should start an operation in the United Kingdom but--bearing in mind my age and medical history--I think this would be not a very sensible way to go forward. So I am now interacting strongly with a group in Italy. I anticipate that we will take a very careful look at what we and other people have done during the past eight years and move on eventually to try to implement some of the work which I have wanted to carry out in the past. T: You've been giving some assistance to Mr. Evan Ragland with regard to his cell. This cell is of course the one which our magazine is hoping to provide to people as a demonstration device of the basic thermal effect.
    [Show full text]
  • Works of Love
    reader.ad section 9/21/05 12:38 PM Page 2 AMAZING LIGHT: Visions for Discovery AN INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM IN HONOR OF THE 90TH BIRTHDAY YEAR OF CHARLES TOWNES October 6-8, 2005 — University of California, Berkeley Amazing Light Symposium and Gala Celebration c/o Metanexus Institute 3624 Market Street, Suite 301, Philadelphia, PA 19104 215.789.2200, [email protected] www.foundationalquestions.net/townes Saturday, October 8, 2005 We explore. What path to explore is important, as well as what we notice along the path. And there are always unturned stones along even well-trod paths. Discovery awaits those who spot and take the trouble to turn the stones. -- Charles H. Townes Table of Contents Table of Contents.............................................................................................................. 3 Welcome Letter................................................................................................................. 5 Conference Supporters and Organizers ............................................................................ 7 Sponsors.......................................................................................................................... 13 Program Agenda ............................................................................................................. 29 Amazing Light Young Scholars Competition................................................................. 37 Amazing Light Laser Challenge Website Competition.................................................. 41 Foundational
    [Show full text]