January 2003 NEWS Volume 12, No. 1 A Publication of The American Physical Society http://www.aps.org/apsnews

APS Expands and Updates Ethics and New York Area Fellows Convene Professional Conduct Guidelines for Physicists APS Fellows in the New York Prompted by recent highly pub- strongly encourage all institutions area gathered in November at the CUNY Graduate Center for licized episodes of misconduct in Online Resources: involved in physics research to a reception hosted by then physics, the APS has updated and The APS Revised Guidelines define their policy and the pro- on Professional Conduct can be President-elect Myriam expanded its professional ethics cesses that should be followed if Sarachik. In addition to found at http://www.aps.org/ guidelines. The changes, adopted http://www.aps.org/ fraud or other misconduct is refreshments and conversa- November 10, 2002, at the APS statements/02.2.html detected. I feel that the revisions we tion, the evening featured a Council meeting, clarify the roles and The new APS Statement on have made to the APS guidelines are program chaired by then APS responsibilities of coauthors, empha- Policies for Handling Allegations a step in the right direction.” President Bill Brinkman, at size the importance of professional of Research Misconduct can be The APS Council has adopted new which Executive Officer Judy Photo by Barbara Hicks ethics education in the training of found at http://www.aps.org/ Guidelines on the Responsibilities of Franz and Director of Educa- tion Fred Stein also spoke. Shown here are (l to r): Cheng-Hsuan Chen (Bell scientists, and suggest that all statements/02.3.html Coauthors and Collaborators. The Labs), Donald Monroe (Agere Systems) and Alice White (Bell Labs). research institutions, regardless of The new APS Statement on guidelines state that “all coauthors funding sources, adopt policies Improving Education for Pro- share some degree of responsibility consistent with the Federal Policy fessional Ethics, Standards and for any paper they coauthor” and that on Research Misconduct. Practices can be found at http:/ “some coauthors have responsibility Microfluidics, Jovian Climate “We shall make a concerted /www.aps.org/statements/ for the entire paper. These include, effort over the next few years to 02.4.html for example, coauthors who are Change Highlight DFD Meeting better educate physicists in appro- The Federal Policy on Re- accountable for the integrity of the Recent advances in micro- geneous and chemically patterned priate professional ethics, search Misconduct can be found critical data reported in the paper, fluidics and the use of vortex surfaces has led to the develop- standards and practices,” said APS at http://www.ostp.gov/html/ carry out the analysis, write the manu- dynamics to predict an impending ment of miniaturized automated President William Brinkman of the 001207_3.html script, present major findings at global climate change for the systems for transporting small liq- Council’s action. “We also want to See CONDUCT on page 7 planet Jupiter were among the uid volumes through networked highlights of the annual meeting arrays, which are rapidly expand- DPP Meeting Features High Magnetic Fields, of the APS Division of Fluid ing diagnostic capabilities in Dynamics (DFD), held November medicine, genomic research and Lab-Based Astrophysical Jets 24-26 at Southern Methodist Uni- materials science. Princeton versity and the University of Texas University’s Sandra Troian Where can you find the stron- November 11-15, 2002 in plasma into a narrow plume and at Austin. More than 950 contrib- described her work on such gest magnetic fields on Earth? Why Orlando, Florida. Approximately eject this plume along the axis, form- uted papers were presented, in microfluidic devices, which com- do galactic nuclei spit out vast 1600 papers were delivered. ing a jet-like structure. These results addition to two honor lectures and bine micromechanical and plumes of hot material into space? Astrophysical Jets in the Lab. should help to shed light on the eight invited lectures. Also fea- electrokinetic techniques for How can x-rays squeeze fuel cap- Many astronomical objects, from long-standing problem of how jets tured was the annual Gallery of metering flow in closed channels. sules to generate energy? How can galactic nuclei to black holes sur- are formed. In the experiment, up Fluid Motion, in which research- Her team has demonstrated that the turbulent flow of a plasma rounded by accretion disks, emit to 150 kilo-Amperes of electric cur- ers submit aesthetically pleasing, programmable thermal maps can make itself stable and what does very long plumes of plasma, called rent are run through a hydrogen insightful displays of still pictures, be used in conjunction with chemi- that have to do with the patterns astrophysical jets. In a new labo- plasma inside a cylindrical metal computer graphics, and video clips cal substrate patterning to on Jupiter? These and many other ratory plasma experiment, Caltech chamber the size of a large closet. of computational and experimen- modulate thermocapillary flow. questions were addressed at the researchers have shown how mag- Some of the jet-like plumes show a tal fluid dynamics. This method provides electronic annual meeting of the APS Division netic forces can create these jets. spiral structure similar to what is A fundamental understanding control over the direction, flow of Plasma Physics (DPP), held from Magnetic forces squeeze the See DPP MEETING on page 6 of thermocapillary flow on homo- rate, mixing, splitting and trapping of discrete droplets or continuous streams. APS Council Approves Statement Kenny Breuer of Brown Univer- Philadelphia Will Host Protesting Boycott of Israeli Scientists sity discussed the mechanics of fluids at the micron and submicron 2003 APS April Meeting In response to recent calls enhance international coopera- scale, which are critical to the wide- initiated by some European tion.” spread growth of microengineering The “City of Brotherly Love” academics to boycott Israeli The APS also endorses the and the development of a new gen- will host as many as 1500 physi- scientists and the Israeli scientific statement issued on August 27, eration of micron- and nanometer- cists at the 2003 APS April community, the APS Council has 2002 by the International Council scale diagnostic techniques. He meeting, to be held April 5-8 in passed a statement reaffirming its for Science (ICSU), in support of identified several remaining chal- Philadelphia. For the first time, “commitment to maintaining open the Israeli scientific community. See DFD MEETING page 4 the meeting will coincide with dialogue and promoting coopera- That action was taken in response the divisional meeting of the Di- tion among scientists throughout to the dismissal of two Israeli vision of Particles and Fields, the world. The APS strongly op- scholars from the editorial boards and will therefore feature a poses attempts to isolate any of two U.K. journals, as well as HHighlights large complement of invited scientific community.” other attempts to foster an and contributed sessions devoted to high-energy physics. The Society’s position is based on academic boycott of Israeli scien- In addition, attendees will be drawn from a wide range of other a November 12, 1989, Council tists, events the ICSU deemed “a research areas. Besides DPF, APS units represented include the Divi- statement on the international na- flagrant breach” of its long-held 5 sions of Astrophysics, Nuclear Physics, Plasma Physics and ture of physics and international principle of the universality of Myriam cooperation, the preamble of which science. “Intellectual communities Sarchik Computational Physics; the Forums on Education, Physics and Soci- Outlines ety, International Affairs, History of Physics and Graduate Student states: “Science belongs to all hu- worldwide are in the business of Priorities for Affairs; and the Topical Groups on Few-Body Systems, Precision manity and transcends national fostering international under- Society in 2003 Measurement and Fundamental Constants, Gravitation, Plasma As- boundaries. As in the past, science standing and cooperation, not of trophysics, and Hadronic Physics. can serve as a bridge for mutual un- penalizing each other for the The scientific program will feature three plenary sessions and derstanding across political and shortcomings of their govern- 8 approximately 45 invited sessions — including talks by the most recent ideological divisions and as a vehicle ment,” the statement concluded. The Back recipients of the Nobel Prize in Physics—as well as more than 100 for the enhancement of peace. In The full text of the ICSU state- Page: particular, APS believes that it is im- ment can be found at http:// Richard Wagner contributed and poster sessions. There will also be a special public lec- discusses Science, ture by Harvard University’s Dudley Herschbach on Benjamin Franklin’s portant at this time to strive for more www.icsu.org/Library/Central/ Uncertainty, and See PHILADELPHIA on page 7 open dialogue among scientists to Statem/israeli-schol.html. Risk 2 January 2003 NEWS

This Month in Physics History Circa January 1961: Lorenz and the Butterfly Effect

To the average layperson, the from Dartmouth College in 1938, like. By the early 1960s, Lorenz had the previous pattern that, within just of wind, unlikely to significantly concept of chaos brings to mind Lorenz planned to go into math, but managed to create a skeleton of a a few virtual “months”, all resem- impact important, large-scale fea- images of complete randomness. World War II intervened: he served weather system from a handful (12) blance between the two had tures of the weather. Yet to scientists, it denotes stochas- as a weather forecaster in the Army of differential equations. He kept a disappeared. Yet in Lorenz’s particular sys- tic behavior occurring in a Air Corps. After- continuous simu- At first Lorenz assumed that a tem of equations, such small deterministic system: namely, sys- wards, he decided lation running on vacuum tube had gone bad in his errors proved catastrophic. Today, tems that are so sensitive to to stick with meteo- an extremely computer, a Royal McBee, which this phenomenon is known as sen- measurement that their output ap- rology, making an primitive com- was extremely slow and crude by sitive dependence on initial pears random, even though there early name for him- puter, which today’s standards. Much to his sur- conditions. Lorenz subsequently is an underlying order. This seem- self by publishing on would produce a prise, there had been no dubbed his discovery “the butter- ingly paradoxical viewpoint was such topics as the day’s worth of malfunction. The problem lay in fly effect”: the nonlinear born when a mathematician general circulation virtual weather the numbers he had typed. Six equations that govern the weather turned meteorologist named Ed- of the atmosphere. every minute. decimal places were stored in the have such an incredible sensitiv- ward Lorenz made a serendipitous But he was par- The system was computer’s memory: .506127. To ity to initial conditions, that a discovery that subsequently ticularly intrigued quite successful save space on the printout, only butterfly flapping its wings in spawned the modern field of chaos by weather predic- at producing three appeared: .506. Lorenz had Brazil could set off a tornado in theory and changed forever the tion, which was still data that re- entered the shorter, rounded-off Texas. And he concluded that way we look at nonlinear systems largely intuitive guesswork, despite sembled naturally occurring weather numbers assuming that the differ- long-range weather forecasting like the weather. the assistance of scientific instru- patterns — nothing ever happened ence—one part in a was doomed. Even as a boy, Lorenz was fas- mentation. With the advent of the same way twice, but there was thousand—was inconsequential. In the past, such observed cinated by the weather, monitoring computers, Lorenz saw the chance clearly an underlying order. It seemed a reasonable assump- behavior—namely, random fluc- the thermometer and recording to combine mathematics and meteo- One day in the winter of 1961, tion. Scientists are often taught that tuations coming from what highs and lows outside his parents’ rology. He set out to construct a Lorenz wanted to examine one par- small initial perturbations lead to should be a completely deter- house in West Hartford, Connecti- mathematical model of the weather ticular sequence at greater length, small changes in behavior in any ministic set of equations — had cut. He was also interested in using a set of differential equations but he took a shortcut. Instead of given physical system, and even been discarded as simply an mathematics, often solving puzzles representing changes in tempera- starting the whole run over, he today, temperature is not routinely error in calculation. Lorenz was with his father. After graduating ture, pressure, wind velocity, and the started midway through, typing the measured within one part in a thou- the first to recognize this erratic numbers straight from the earlier sand. Lorenz’s computer used a behavior as something other printout to give the machine its purely deterministic system of equa- than error; what he saw was initial conditions. Then he walked tions, so that given a particular undeniable order, born out of down the hall for a cup of coffee, starting point, the “weather” would randomness. Not only was this and when he returned an hour unfold exactly the same way each the first clear demonstration of “That could screw up things smallness of quantum computers, later, he found an unexpected time, while a slightly different start- sensitive dependence on initial more than anything else. Inspec- Cosmiverse.com, November 21, 2002 result. Instead of exactly duplicat- ing point would cause the weather conditions, but Lorenz showed tors need to be confident and ✶✶✶ ing the earlier run, the new to unfold in a slightly different way. that this occurred in a simple but experienced. You need enough in- “It’s the heroin pusher’s printout showed the virtual Lorenz figured a small numerical physically relevant model. formation in the hands of approach to marketing.” weather diverging so rapidly from variation was similar to a small puff Lorenz then created a new inspectors to nail the Iraqis or show —Martin Blume, American Physical system with three nonlinear dif- they are compliant.” Society, on giving data away free to ferential equations, a reduced —David Albright, Institute for Science lure customers in, Washington Post, model of convection known as the and International Security, on why the November 21, 2002 “Lorenz Attractor.” He hypoth- weapons inspectors in Iraq need to be ✶✶✶ esized that the graph he created experienced, ABCNews.com, Novem- “Accomplishments of the pro- to model the motion would either ber 18, 2002 gram during the past few decades reach equilibrium and stop, or ✶✶✶ have been truly remarkable.” create a loop that would eventu- ‘’I think we would have liked if —Richard Hazeltine, University of Texas ally be reformed and retraced, Batlogg had stood up and said, `I at Austin, on progress in fusion research, indicating a repeating pattern. In- put my name on those papers and MSNBC, November 25, 2002 stead, his map displayed an infinite it was the worst judgment of my ✶✶✶ complexity, always staying with life,’ but he didn’t do that.’’ “If you say let’s integrate all the certain bounds, but never repeat- —Douglas Stone, Yale University, on codes over all the timescales, there’s ing itself either. It traced a the responsibility of Bertram Batlogg really no roadmap for doing that. distinctive double-spiral shape, in the Schön affair, Boston Globe, No- Our approach deals with this in aptly resembling a butterfly with vember 19, 2002 (pairs of problems) instead.” its two wings. ✶✶✶ —Jill Dahlburg, General Atomics, on Since Lorenz’s discovery, “At least we can do no worse the problem of simulating nuclear fusion computer modeling has succeeded than it’s been for the last 100 years.” on a computer, UPI, November 25, 2002 in changing the weather business —Richard Steiner, NIST, on new ways ✶✶✶ from an art into a science, yet to define the kilogram, Dallas Morn- “When we are done with this, beyond two or three days, even ing News, November 18, 2002 someone else will commercialize the world’s best forecasts are still ✶✶✶ fusion. (The result) should be safe speculative, and beyond a week, “That is when I began to and environmentally attractive, they are worthless. Such is the para- suspect there was some kind of and extrapolate to competitive dox that is chaos. underlying principle operating here. costs in the U.S. market.” Further ReadingReading: Ultimately, it all comes from —Robert Goldston, Princeton Univer- Gleick, James. Chaos: Making a Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle.” sity, on a proposed demonstration New Science, Viking Penguin, 1987. —Julio Gea-Banacloche, University of project for fusion power, UPI, Novem- Arkansas, on fundamental limits on the ber 25, 2002

Series II, Vol. 12, No. 1 For Nonmembers—Circulation and Fulfillment General Councillors ADVISORS January 2003 Division, American Institute of Physics, Suite 1NO1, 2 Jonathan A. Bagger*, Janet Conrad, Stuart Freedman*, Frances Representatives from Other Societies NEWS ©2003 The American Physical Society Huntington Quadrangle, Melville, NY 11747-4502. Houle, Gerald Mahan, Margaret Murnane*, Cherry Ann Charles H. Holbrow, AAPT; Marc Brodsky, AIP Allow at least 6 weeks advance notice. For address Murray*, Philip Phillips*, Laura Smoliar, Jin-Joo Song Coden: ANWSEN ISSN: 1058-8132 changes, please send both the old and new addresses, International Advisors and, if possible, include a mailing label from a recent International Councillor Gerardo C. Puente, Mexican Physical Society, Editor ...... Alan Chodos issue. Requests from subscribers for missing issues will T. Maurice Rice W. J. McDonald, Canadian Association of Physicists be honored without charge only if received within 6 Associate Editor ...... Jennifer Ouellette months of the issue’s actual date of publication. Periodical Chair, Nominating Committee Staff Representatives Special Publications Manager ...... Elizabeth Buchan-Higgins Postage Paid at College Park, MD and at additional mailing Susan Seestrom Alan Chodos, Associate Executive Officer; Irving Design and Production ...... Stephanie Jankowski offices. Postmaster: Send address changes to APS News, Lerch, Director of International Affairs; Fredrick Forefronts Editor ...... Neville Connell Membership Department, American Physical Society, Chair, Panel on Public Affairs Stein, Director of Education; Robert L. Park, Director, Proofreader ...... Edward Lee One Physics Ellipse, College Park, MD 20740-3844. John Ahearne Public Information; Michael Lubell, Director, Public Affairs; Stanley Brown, Editorial Director; Charles APS News (ISSN: 1058-8132) is published 11X News should be directed to: Editor, APS News, One APS COUNCIL 2003 Division, Forum and Section Councillors Muller, Director, Journal Operations; Michael yearly, monthly, except the August/September issue, Physics Ellipse, College Park, MD 20749-3844, E-mail: President Kate Kirby (Atomic, Molecular & Optical Physics), Robert Stephens, Controller and Assistant Treasurer by the American Physical Society, One Physics [email protected]. Myriam P. Sarachik*, City College of New York - CUNY Eisenberg (Biological), Sylvia Ceyer (Chemical), Allen Ellipse, College Park, MD 20740-3844, (301) 209- President-Elect Goldman* (Condensed Matter Physics), Steven White Administrator for Governing Committees 3200. It contains news of the Society and of its Subscriptions: APS News is an on-membership Helen R. Quinn*, Stanford University (SLAC) (Computational), Harry Swinney (Fluid Dynamics), Peter Ken Cole Divisions, Topical Groups, Sections and Forums; publication delivered by Periodical Mail. Members Vice-President Zimmerman (Forum on Education), Stuart Wolf (Forum on * Members of the APS Executive Board advance information on meetings of the Society; residing abroad may receive airfreight delivery for a fee Marvin L. Cohen*, University of California, Berkeley Industrial and Applied Physics), Gloria Lubkin (Forum on and reports to the Society by its committees and of $15. Nonmembers: Subscription rates are available Executive Officer History of Physics), James Vary (Forum on International task forces, as well as opinions. at http://librarians.aps.org/institutional.html. Judy R. Franz*, University of Alabama, Huntsville (on leave) Physics), Ed Gerjuoy (Forum on Physics and Society), Treasurer Timothy P. Lodge, (Polymer Physics), G. Slade Cargill*, Letters to the editor are welcomed from the Subscription orders, renewals and address changes Thomas McIlrath*, University of Maryland (emeritus) III (Materials), Bunny C. Clark (Nuclear), Sally Dawson, membership. Letters must be signed and should should be addressed as follows: For APS Members— Editor-in-Chief Peter Meyers (Particles & Fields), Stephen Holmes (Physics include an address and daytime telephone number. Membership Department, American Physical Society, Martin Blume*, Brookhaven National Laboratory of Beams), James Drake (Plasma), Gian Vidali, (New York The APS reserves the right to select and to edit for One Physics Ellipse, College Park, MD 20740-3844, Past-President Section), Joe Hamilton (Southeast Section) length or clarity. All correspondence regarding APS [email protected]. William F. Brinkman*, Bell Labs-Lucent Technologies (retired) NEWS January 2003 3 Sarachik Outlines Priorities for Society in 2003

Editor’s NoteNote: Myriam Sarachik Q: One of the issues you cited in One issue concerns several recent threat of terrorism Q: As a successful (City College of New York) assumed your candidate’s statement was the instances of scientific fraud, which and terrorist woman in physics, when the APS presidency on January 1, increased specialization of physics, many of us thought could not hap- activities is some- did you first become 2003. In an interview with APS and the need for more unity in the field. pen in our field. These have thing we must take interested in the subject, NEWSNEWS, she discusses her priorities and Why is this so important? prompted a careful re-examination very seriously. The and what made you concerns for the Society during her A: That has been one of my and strengthening of our guidelines APS has formed a decide to make it your presidential tenure and beyond. serious concerns, because the field for professional conduct (See story, Task Force on career? And what has divided itself into smaller and page 1). Another issue is that our Countering Terror- advice would you give to Q: In some respects, the APS is smaller subgroups that often don’t foreign students and colleagues are ism to survey the other women who would operating in a vastly changed national communicate with each other very now encountering a great deal more current activities in like to study physics? and global context since the terrorist well. But we’re all physicists with difficulty in obtaining visas in a timely this area and to A: To be honest, attacks of 2001. Has this impacted the common backgrounds and inter- way. This has become a very serious help identify prob- I don’t really know Myriam Sarachik Society’s activities and priorities? ests, regardless of subfield and problem for many of our graduate lems for which what drew me. I was A: Despite how much the world regardless of whether we work in programs. The APS Office of Inter- physicists can find solutions (See interested in a number of things, has changed since September 11, I industry, academia or government national Affairs has labored very story on page 5). We need to inform and I was trying to choose think the fundamental mission of labs. I would dearly love to establish hard on this, but it’s been difficult to our government leaders how we can between them: music, languages, APS remains the same. For better communication between us get a handle on the problem. It’s not help them deal with these problems. math, and literature. Physics was example, we still need to continue to and re-establish a sense of commu- clear how to access the people who the toughest subject I had ever make the case for the importance of nity. Communication is particularly are making the decisions, especially Q: There are also ongoing concerns tried to do, and in the beginning I science in general, and for the physi- important since so much of today’s in light of changed circumstances about the future workforce in physics, had a great deal of difficulty with cal sciences in particular. Physics is a exciting research is at the interface and with a new administration that particularly the need to attract more it. It was interesting and it was a fundamental science. It drives and between disciplines, for example, espouses a very different philosophy young people to the field. challenge, and I decided that was informs many of the advances in biology and physics. from the previous administration. A: The APS has been quite what I was going to do in my life. It other fields, for example, medical The APS recent workshop on A third issue just on the hori- active in this area through numer- took some time, and hard work, instrumentation such as MRIs, opportunities for physicists in zon is proposed new rules to ous initiatives in the area of but eventually I did very well. X-rays, CT scans. The technology that biology was extremely successful. classify the results of scientific education. But more needs to be My advice to other women is: if has shaped our world originated in The Society also helped establish a research. These rules will affect the done. We need to spread the mes- you like it, don’t let anything or fundamental discoveries made by consortium of scientific societies to exchange of information, which we sage that physics is very exciting. anyone talk you out of it. But, be physicists in their quest to under- work to increase science funding all recognize is essential for scien- It’s a fundamental science that prepared to work hard. stand how nature works. which has met with considerable tific progress. There is a move drives many other things. It is par- So we have to persuade the pub- success. There is great strength in towards categorizing some work as ticularly important that we Q: You are only the third woman lic and our policy makers that unity. If the physics community were sensitive but not classified, for continue to apply resources to our to become APS president in the continued investment in science — more united, and united in turn with example. What does that mean? ongoing efforts to involve women Society’s 100-plus-year-history, about including fundamental research — all the sciences, including the life What are the consequences? and minorities in physics. to be followed by a fourth, Helen is absolutely essential for the sciences, we would represent a very Who’s going to make the deci- There has been some progress Quinn, in 2004. You’ve been involved future of the nation. The APS Wash- strong force indeed. sions, and how is that going to be regarding women but again, more with the APS for many years, but why ington office has been increasingly handled? I think this is going to be a needs to be done. And we need to did you decide to take on the presi- effective in making the case. And it’s Q: What are some of the prevail- big issue for us. We strongly believe redouble our efforts to interest dency, with its substantial time also gratifying that we’ve succeeded ing current issues that require the that communication between scien- members of minority groups to commitment? in involving more of our members in Society’s attention? tists everywhere should serve as a study physics and to join our ranks. A: It is a big commitment but I these efforts. We hope very much to A: There are a number of bridge between us. But we do live in We’ve been relatively unsuccessful felt that it was an important thing increase that participation further. issues that have come up recently. a very altered world. I think the at that. See SARACHIK on page 7

Perspectives on Ethics and Validity in Science By R. Stephen Berry Science and the knowledge it tinue to measure the properties. erroneous. The most obvious or not, been presented by research- feasance, evidenced by the recent produces have a special, unique At the opposite extreme are recent example is the purported ers who believed in their validity. The case at Bell Laboratories. The iden- quality in the body of human expe- results that challenge established achievement of cold fusion. Its scientific community is now being tical noise distributions in two rience. A characteristic of this findings, whether experimental or potential importance, had it been asked to scrutinize cases of fraudu- spectra, presented as independent uniqueness is the capacity of sci- theoretical. When a new experiment valid, helped stimulate many lent claims of scientific results. and different, is simply inconsis- ence to provide reliable quantitative yields a value of a fundamental con- researchers to examine the work When any new result is pre- tent in precisely the sense that we predictions of phenomena, within stant of nature that lies three and, in a matter of months, to dis- sented to the scientific community, use inconsistencies to test the its own domain. No other aspect standard deviations outside the credit it and show how the the tacit presumption is that it is validity of any scientific result. of human experience has this range of previously measured val- erroneous results came about. honest. However, this is essentially Because of the very nature of capability. But this predictive power ues, people take notice. First, they In between are results that are irrelevant to the question of the noise, we can think of only one is the consequence of the way sci- scrutinize the way the new measure- potentially quite important and not validity of the substantive scientific way that the two noise distribu- entific studies evolve. The ment was made, and if it seems strikingly inconsistent with accepted result, which will regardless be sub- tions could be essentially validation processes of the scien- without apparent error, they are ideas. One is the recent report that ject to the standard validation identical—by their actually being tific enterprise are themselves likely to repeat the new measure- element 118 had been observed, a processes that make science work. two representations of the same unique and are the basis of the pre- ment and to find other ways to result expected to be difficult to It is especially important to keep spectrum. The extreme improb- dictive powers of science. measure the quantity in question. obtain, but consistent with ideas of quite separate the question of how ability of such an event carries with Science advances by a kind of There are well-recorded instances nuclear structure. Such reports are and whether science is successful it a very strong implication of trial-and-error activity, guided by of a set of apparently consistent mea- certain to be examined critically, but at maintaining its self-validation, deliberate misrepresentation. past observations and the interpre- surements being superceded by not with the alacrity of a report of and the question of how to recog- I believe that scientific self-cor- tations — theories, if you will — of such an “outlier” that was subse- cold fusion. The self correction pro- nize and deal with misconduct. rection is functioning and is indeed the phenomena that yielded those quently validated. cess of science inevitably and Consider the following hypo- maintaining the validity of the body observations. Foremost is the es- Another instance—the concept inexorably brings anyone who wants thetical case. A report appears of of scientific knowledge. It may tablishment of the validity of the of continental drift, or plate tec- to build on previous work to do an experiment that is claimed to occur slowly, but it does occur. It result. A measurement of a quan- tonics—illustrates how science something that will test the correc- yield a rather striking result. Clever must occur if a result is to be used in tity that has been predicted by a treats iconoclastic ideas, far out- tion of that work. While it may be a investigators carry out real experi- building further science. On the very well-established theory is side accepted dogma, that could long time before anything appears ments that show that the reported other hand, the issue of maintaining unlikely to stimulate experiments not be tested rigorously with the to challenge the results, as soon as result is correct, while in the mean- ethical behavior and discouraging to repeat and validate that result. means available when the idea was any apparent inconsistency arises, time, incontrovertible evidence (and punishing) its opposite in the For many years the theoretical first proposed, even though it was the challenge inevitably begins. This comes to light that the initial scientific enterprise is a different methods available to compute eventually shown to be correct. continual validation and insistence report was based on an experiment issue that does not have such an properties of simple atoms were Without validation, scientific skep- on consistency with previous knowl- that was never conducted. The ini- obvious resolution, and needs scru- accepted to be capable of generat- ticism determined the fate of the edge is what insured the ability of tial claim was fraudulent, although tiny and careful thought. ing more accurate values than the concept until the key measure- science to make reliable quantitative the reported “result” was ulti- R. Stephen Berry is the James experiments that could measure ments could be made. predictions. mately found to be correct. Franck Distinguished Service Professor the same properties. But it was use- On the other hand, there are The examples discussed thus far The procedures that test the of Chemistry at the University of ful for investigators to improve the also clear instances in which the have been those in which the validity of scientific information Chicago. He is also the home secretary experimental methods and con- surprising result was shown to be reported new results have, correct can sometimes also test for mal- of the National Academy of Sciences. 4 January 2003 NEWS LETTERS INSIDE THE BELTWAY:

Administration Needs Sound Science A Washington Analysis In the November 2002 “Back be worse than useless, yet the Bush Page,” Colin Powell states that “the administration continues to pro- White House Dominance May Leave Science Dangling formulation of our foreign policy mote it. And international aid must proceed from a solid scien- agencies all over the world have By Michael S. Lubell, APS Director of Public Affairs tific foundation.” If he truly believes shown that sex education and the It wasn’t supposed to happen this These are the three factors on tax and trade policies favorable to this, then he should try to persuade promotion of the rights of women way. The party holding the White which the election hinged. Demo- business to be pushed hard at both the Bush administration to listen are the keys to fighting AIDS and House always loses congressional crats had no message. Republicans ends of Pennsylvania Avenue. to scientists. So far, it has not. controlling overpopulation. seats after its first two years in the had the cash. And President Bush Finally, George Bush put his The Intergovernmental Panel Yet the Bush administration has Oval Office, political historians said. had the guts to put his popularity political future on the line by cam- on Climate Change, the U.S. allied itself with countries like Iran, Even on the morning of Elec- on the line by spending most of paigning for Republican National Academies, and the Envi- Libya, and Syria to fight against tion Day, Democratic National October on the hustings. Let’s candidates in key states. Had they ronmental Protection Agency have family planning programs and trea- Committee Chairman Terry examine how each is likely to lost, he would have found himself all proclaimed that global climate ties to protect the rights of women. McAuliffe was so certain of victory affect policy in the coming year. a much weakened chief executive. change is a grave and pressing The citizens of the U.S., and the that he repeated a prediction for Democrats had no message, But virtually all of them won, and threat. Yet the Bush administration world, deserve more than just lip- NBC’s Tim Russert: “Jeb Bush is because for the last two years they Republicans in Congress owe him has actively opposed attempts to service to scientific ideals. The Bush gone!” A little known Democrat, couldn’t agree on two major big time. address it. The Union of administration needs to base its he said, would sweep into the domestic and foreign policy ques- In the near term, the White Concerned Scientists and the actions on sound science, regard- Florida statehouse. Not only that, tions: taxes and war. Some House will call the shots, and Con- Federation of American Scientists less of ideology. but in the President’s own home Democrats supported the gress will abide. By contrast with have argued for years that the pro- Brian Cluggish state of Texas, he prophesied, President’s $1.3 trillion tax cut. the last two years, when Republi- posed National Missile Defense will San Diego, California Democrats would wrest a Senate Some didn’t. Some of them sup- can appropriators rebelled against Need to Understand How Others Think seat from Republicans. ported the President’s plan to attack White House calls for fiscal McAuliffe was not alone in fore- Iraq. Some didn’t. restraint, the President’s forthcom- Secretary of State Colin Powell ancient Greeks as one of the bases casting a rosy scenario for Don’t look for them to find their ing budget will be a true blueprint (APS News, October 2002) is right of thinking, do at times appear to Democrats. Most pollsters predicted way out of the policy wilderness for congressional action. On a host in pointing out the role of scien- behave surprisingly. Only if we that the party would extend its con- anytime soon. The divisions in their of policy issues, including defense, tists in the US Department of State, really understand how the others trol in the Senate, winning caucus remain, and it will be chal- energy and the environment, don’t and the same also could be said are thinking, how they are plan- Republican seats in Arkansas, lenging for Democrats to sing in look for Congress to block the for the ministries of foreign affairs ning, working and arguing, will we Colorado and New Hampshire, unison. In the near term, they will President’s agenda. in other countries. Let me add one be able to discuss constructively while holding on in Georgia, have difficulty bucking the Repub- Where does that leave science? point in favor. Some scientists had and to transmit our thoughts and Louisiana and Minnesota. Only Mis- lican tide, even though GOP At best, dangling. At worst, in a the occasion to work in an inter- arguments to them. It is not the fact souri and South Dakota were in congressional margins are slender. deep hole. national surrounding as e.g. at that people are speaking English doubt. Republicans had the cash, Jack Marburger, the President’s CERN. They may have discovered which makes them think in the But after all the ballots were because corporate America saw the science advisor, has portrayed him that people from other countries same way we are used to. counted, Republicans had made Bush White House as the strongest as a strong supporter of science. But on other continents, who were not Reinhard Budde history, proving pundits, pollsters ally it’s had in Washington for gen- the record of the first two presiden- educated with the logics from the Begnins, Switzerland and prognosticators patently erations. Industry, which used to split tial budgets, which froze or cut incorrect. They increased their its political giving evenly, tilted more research spending in the physical Letter Maligns Teller margin in the House and regained than two to one toward Republicans sciences, does not bode well. With control of the Senate. They are in the last campaign cycle. the government facing a $150 or Robert A. Levy (APS News, critic in a leftist magazine slams now in charge of the government. The election outcome will $200 billion shortfall, even absent October 2002) comments on Edward Teller, that’s not really It’s not just the election outcome strengthen the hand of industry, an impending war with Iraq, the Hans Bethe’s favorable review newsworthy. If a Fellow of the APS that will shape the Washington produce a pro-business federal White House is likely to be very chary (Physics Today, November 2001) endorses Mayo’s view, that might landscape, however. It’s also how agenda and, as a corollary, accen- with dollars for research in the com- of Edward Teller’s recent “Mem- arguably be newsworthy. But Levy and why the GOP scored its tri- tuate the tilt in campaign giving ing year. No doubt, it will be one oirs”. Ostensibly concerned with nowhere gives his own opinion. He umph that matters. toward the Republicans. Look for that challenge’s scientists resolve. balance, Levy quotes at length just quotes Mayo’s nasty review, from a contrasting review of replete with phrases such as “toad- Teller’s book, by Anna Mayo in like book”, thereby managing to DFD MEETING, from page 1 “The Texas Observer”. malign Teller without taking per- Unfortunately Levy doesn’t sonal responsibility for doing so. lenges, ranging from the prediction followed by violent instabilities along sonoluminescence, and boiling, among bother to describe the magazine Opinions from members are of viscous damping and lubrication the planet’s eastward-going jet others. “Texas Observer” or the reviewer fine, but judging by the results, it effects in MEMs, to the design of streams, which in turn will lead to a The 2002 DFD meeting also fea- (Miss Mayo), or to compare her was a mistake to let Levy assume microengines and the understand- repopulation of the Jovian vortices tured a special U.S./Mexican qualifications as a judge of Teller the role of guest editor. ing of bacterial propulsion. in the atmosphere. mini-symposium on the dynamics and the crucial Los Alamos era with James E. Felten The planet Jupiter has a 100-year This year’s recipients of the APS and interactions of vortices. Invited those of Hans Bethe. If a leftist Greenbelt, Maryland climate cycle, according to Philip Fluid Dynamics Prize and Otto Laporte speakers from both the U.S. and lead- Marcus of the University of Califor- Award were featured in special invited ing institutions in Mexico Junk Due to Plain Ambition nia, Berkeley, who predicts that honor session. Andrea Prosperetti of addressed a diverse range of topics, within the next seven years, the day- Johns Hopkins University (the Laporte including electrically driven vortices Bill Brinkman’s article on scien- plain ambition is behind much of averaged temperature of the Jovian Award recipient) spoke about bubbles, in multipolar magnetic fields, the sta- tific fraud in APS News, November the junk in the literature. This not atmosphere at the height of the which he described as “a tiny cloud bility of elliptically inhomogeneous 2002 touches on another point, fraud but fraud’s cousin, misrep- visible clouds will change by 10º shielding a mathematical singularity”. rodons, vortex pair dynamics and in- often neglected in the larger dis- resentation. circa or more. That change will be Despite their brief lifetime, bubbles give stabilities, Hamiltonian contour cussion framed by the Schoen Simon C. Moss preceded by a decrease in the num- rise to a wealth of fascinating physical dynamics, and coupled oscillations affair. By this I mean the practice Houston, Texas ber of large Jovian vortices, and phenomena: underwater noise, in a vortex chain. whereby tenuous, tentative, or just plainly mundane results are Physical Laws Must be pumped up by authors pursuing Obeyed ral processes is based on the suc- physical laws of nature. life began from nonliving matter.” the attention of the larger physics cess of the existing physical theory, Chris Hays Biochemists have a very good idea community. It often goes by the In APS News, November, 2002 developed after hundreds of years Chicago, Illinois how it took place, and any class of name of “theory chasing,” if the Richard Jones et al provides an of experimental study. This theory Life’s Origin Not biochemistry will walk you thought authors are experimentalists, or argument on behalf of the “intelli- has led us to a broadly successful the process. We can almost repro- more generally “fashion passion.” gent design theory.” I have little model of the interactions in the Supernatural duce it in the laboratory. This issue, namely that of over knowledge of this theory, so I will universe, and explains a huge vari- I want to respond to two letters Even if we didn’t know how it interpretation of uncertain or or- not attempt to address its merits. I ety of natural phenomena. To in APS News November 2002 issue. happened, we do know how it defi- dinary results, is not an occasional would like, however, to point out a argue that these interactions In “Origin of Life a Complex Ques- nitely did not happen. It definitely event, sad to say. And it speaks to flaw in their argument. apply in all circumstances except tion”, the authors say it’s unfair to did not happen because of any- the largely unspoken ethic of our Jones and company claim that, life is counter to a wide body of put Creationists in with UFO enthu- thing magic or supernatural. There profession to seek the truth, to rep- “Modern science makes the physical and biological evidence. siasts. Which is more ridiculous, that is a logical scientific explanation for resent our results honestly, and to assumption that life began only by It may be that there is no good, aliens are visiting the Earth, or that everything, even if we don’t cur- accept the fact that one may, from simple, natural processes,” but that well-understood theory for the ori- the entire infinite Universe was rently know what it is. The authors time to time, be wrong. In the lat- it is “just an assumption.” Are Jones gin of life. But if we are not going somehow deliberately made by a point out what they claim are flaws ter case let it be for the best reason: and company arguing that the laws to discount the past several hun- single person? or gaps in our knowledge, and then that one of nature no longer apply when dreds years of scientific progress, They then say, “There is no quali- try to subtly suggest that belief in argued from imperfect data or just one discusses the origin of life? The we must require such a theory to tative theory, nor even a widely magic should be an alternative. made a mistake. Usually, however, assumption that life began by natu- be consistent with the known accepted qualitative model, for how See LETTERS on page 7 NEWS January 2003 5

NUMBER EIGHT Metallic Phase with Long-Range Orientational Order and No Translational Symmetry D.Shechtman, I. Blech, D. Gratias, and J.W. Cahn, Phys. Rev. Lett. 53, 1951 (1984), 2155 citations

the experimental breakthrough. metallurgical journal.” Shechtman brought a fresh breeze to young sci- Medal of Science for his contribu- This is the third in a series of Shechtman himself did not imme- and Blech took the AJP editors’ entists looking for a challenge,” says tions to materials science, solid-state articles by James Riordon. The first diately recognize the quasiperiodic suggestion. The article was Shechtman, “and quasicrystal physics, chemistry and mathemat- article appeared in the November structure in his sample, and was at accepted by Metallurgical Transac- science is a challenge, big time.” ics. And Gratias is currently director 2002 issue. The articles will be first mystified by the diffraction tions, but remained unpublished for The fact that so many research- of the Laboratoire d’Etudes des archived under “Special Features” pattern. “I knew the diffraction nearly a year. ers could duplicate Shechtman’s Microstructures in France. on the APS News online web site. pattern was not from twins [which Eventually, Shechtman brought work so rapidly presents something Shechtman is still at Technion result from a common crystal the article to the attention of John of a puzzle. How could quasi-crys- and, except for a five year interlude While he was on sabbatical at the defect],” recalls Shechtman from Cahn, his longtime host at National tals have evaded the community of dedicated to chemical vapor depo- National Bureau of Standards in April his office at Technion University in Bureau of Standards (now the crystallographers for so long? “That sition of diamond, has spent nearly 1982, Dan Shechtman made a star- Israel, “but I did not come up with National Institute of Standards and is a question I have tried to answer all his career studying quasicrystals. tling discovery. He found that certain an explanation for what it was.” Technology) and an eminent materi- many times,” he replies. In addition The discovery that he once thought rapidly-cooled alloys of aluminum Quasicrystals would eventually als scientist. Cahn recommended to the vital input he received from might be an embarrassment tanta- and manganese he was studying inspire a tidal wave of activity in crys- streamlining the paper; leaving out his collaborators, says Shechtman, mount to the polywater scandal has produced electron diffraction pat- tallography, mathematics, physics, details of the model and experiment, his discovery required several criti- had a dramatic effect on his life. “It terns just as crystals do, but the chemistry, and material science. Ini- and limiting it solely the experimen- cal components. First, it was exposed me to several sciences, patterns showed that the alloy had tially, however, Shechtman’s tal findings. After consulting with necessary to make esoteric, rather made me known to very many, and an unusual rotational symmetry. In discovery was viewed with skepti- Denis Gratias, a mathematical crys- than useful, rapidly-cooled alloys. put me in the focus of meetings and fact, the symmetry was inconsistent cism. “For two years I did not have tallographer at the Centre National Then a researcher would have to discussions,” says Shechtman. “In with the translational symmetry that anybody who believed my results de la Recherche Scientifique in study them with a transmission elec- the four years that followed the PRL effectively defined a crystal. and was usually ridiculed,” says France, the group submitted an tron microscope (“And be damn paper, I gave one hundred lectures Shechtman had inadvertently Shechtman. “The scandal of polywa- abbreviated article to Physical Review good at it”, he adds), perform worldwide.” He has received stumbled across a quasicrystal. ter was still in the air, and I feared for Letters in October 1984, more than numerous detailed analyses, and numerous prizes and awards for his In normal crystals, atoms lie on my scientific and academic career.” two years after Shechtman’s initial finally “Face the world of nonbe- quasicrystal research, and is nomi- three-dimensional lattices of cells. Fortunately, one of his col- experiment. The article was pub- lievers, face ridicule, and defend nated for many more. Each cell has an identical pattern leagues at Technion University was lished several weeks later. your idea? Shechtman concedes Oddly enough, Shechtman has of cells surrounding it. In a willing to take Shechtman’s data at This time the response to the that it’s likely others may have pre- one complaint about the field that quasicrystal, the local arrange- face value. “In 1984,” says paper was almost immediate, says viously seen quasicrystals without he originated: use of the word ments of atoms are fixed, but each Shechtman, “Ilan Blech proposed Shechtman. “Scientists from around realizing it. “Seeing it was just one quasicrystal. “I do not like the term, cell has a different configuration the model, later known as the the world called me days after the step in the long process that led to since it implies that quasi-periodic of cells nearby. Although the struc- Icosahedral Glass model.” PRL publication to say, ‘We did it and the article in PRL.” crystals are not crystals, and accord- tures are strikingly similar to the Together, the researchers wrote up we see what you saw.’ ” Discussion of Blech left Technion to pursue ing to the new International Union quasiperiodic tilings invented by an article that contained the model Shechtman’s paper dominated an microelectronics production in Sili- of Crystallographers definition, they mathematician Roger Penrose and the experimental results, and international conference on math- con Valley shortly after helping are. But the term is widely used. I (which Martin Gardner popular- sent it off to the Journal of Applied ematical crystallography held a few Shechtman identify his quasicrystal prefer to call them quasi-periodic ized in a 1977 Mathematical Physics in the summer of 1984. months after the letter’s publication, sample. Cohn is now an emeritus re- materials. The term quasicrystal, in Games column in Scientific Ameri- “JAP rejected it on the grounds that and by 1986 the first international searcher with the National Institute fact, does not appear in the article can), there was little in the it would not reach the proper read- meetings dedicated to quasicrystals of Standards and Technology, and ranked eighth on our list of the ten crystallographic field to presage ers and suggested I send it to a were under way. “The discovery was a 1998 recipient of the National most-cited Physical Review Letters. White Papers Highlight Opportunities For Counter-Terrorism Research By Bob Guenther Earlier this year, APS President narrowed possible technology issues Bill Brinkman created a Task Force to areas where physics would make on Countering Terrorism and the greatest contribution: Sensors; asked me to be its Chair. Other Materials; and Data Systems. Swarm Intelligence, by required for the timely detection of est as a tool for homeland security. members are: Mark Coffey (TRW); Task Force members have Gerard P. Gilfoyle chemical, biological and explosive toxic But fast, reliable, nondestructive in- Harold Craighead (Cornell); prepared brief white papers on A group of non-intelligent agents agents at the lowest possible concen- spection of cargo, vehicles, and per- Leonard C. Feldman (Vanderbilt); technologies that fall within these — robots, sensors, etc. — can in- trations, which could be achieved with sonal baggage is a formidable tech- Gerard P. Gilfoyle (University of broad topical areas. In furtherance teract with their environment and single molecule sensors. nological and operational challenge. Richmond); Martin V. Goldman of the mission of the Task Force, each other to produce collectively Bio-Inspired Sensors, by Paul Addressing Nuclear and Ra- (Colorado); Beverly K. Hartline these white papers are summarized intelligent behavior, similar to an ant Wolf diological Terrorist Threats, by (Argonne); Al Romig (Sandia); and at right, and are available in full colony. E.g., telecommunications Nature has produced extraordi- Martin Goldman Paul Wolf (Air Force Institute of online at www.aps.org/apsnews/ firms are using computational nary sensor systems in biological Two major terrorist threats are Technology). [See APS News, April whitepapers. It is our hope that “ants” (agents) to produce faster, species that exceed the capabilities the detonation of nuclear weapons 2002 and November 2002]. APS members will seriously con- more robust communications net- of most man-made sensors. Under- or devices, and the release of ra- The objective of the Task Force has sider ways in which they might works. Transportation firms use standing the processes responsible dioactive materials through the use these algorithms to pick the best for these sensory abilities may pro- of “dirty” bombs. The physics com- been to survey the current activities in contribute to the research areas way to rout gasoline trucks. duce a blueprint for replicating them munity can help improve detection the area of counter-terrorism, identify that are outlined in these articles. Protection and Decontamina- in man-made devices. of illicit weapons and nuclear ma- technical issues where physics might Another way for physicists to tion of Surfaces, by L.C. Feldman Chemical and Explosives terials, and help educate the public play a role and to make the physics learn about counter-terrorism is to Innovative surface science Detection, by Mark Coffey about radiation processes and the community aware of these issues. attend a special workshop that will plays a cross-cutting role in sens- While there are several methods limited risks associated with radio- The most important mission of be held on Sunday, March 2, just ing, protection and decontamina- currently available for the detection logical devices to ward off panic. the task force is to stimulate the before the APS March meeting in tion, all areas of critical importance of chemical weapons and explo- Bio-Surveillance Systems, by physics community to contribute Austin, Texas. Titled “The Role of to counter-terror efforts. While sives, the development of new meth- Beverly K. Hartline and Darrell to homeland security by devoting Physicists in Countering Bioterrorism”, much progress is being made in ods would be very useful, particu- Chandler a small portion of the community’s the workshop will review the detecting and identifying toxic larly nuclear quadrupole resonance, In the area of biosurveillance, no research activity to the solution of bioterrorism threat, describe cur- agents, in general, there is a lack which has potential as a bulk detec- one technology satisfies the dispar- of materials and methods for the tion method. ate operation needs of modern soci- these highlighted technical issues. rent biological detection techniques, large-scale remediation of Non-Destructive Evaluation ety. An idealized system that would The Task Force reviewed the and explore the role of spectro- bioterrorism pathogens, or for the Technologies for Container and satisfy many of these needs is the counter-terrorism efforts that were scopic techniques in species clean-up of disinfecting agents. Vehicle Inspection, by A.D. fictional “Tricorder” popularized in the underway at government agencies detection and recognition. Single Molecule Sensors, by Romig “Star Trek” series, which could offer and at some professional societies, Bob Guenther is Professor of Phys- Harold Craighead NDE is a relatively mature field of a useful model on which to build and after further discussion ics at Duke University. The ultimate in sensitivity is technology that is of particular inter- future technologies. 6 January 2003 NEWS

DPP MEETING from page 1 occasionally observed in space, netic structure in the reconnection enabling researchers to improve region. Researchers hope to eluci- their understanding of real astro- date fundamental plasma physics physical jets. processes on the sun and under- Lab-Based Recreations of Ex- stand new plasma structures in Committee Helps Keep Meetings Healthy treme Astrophysical PhenomenaPhenomena. magnetic confinement fusion Using a new technique, researchers machines. The annual March aspects of physicists from other countries from Imperial College, London, and Hollow Plasma Doughnut and April Meetings of the meetings who will need visas to enter the Rutherford Appleton lab in the CurrentsCurrents. Doughnuts of plasma the APS are important related to the Canada, may have difficulty in UK have created super-strong mag- can be coaxed into configurations to the physics commu- mechanics arranging for travel to and from netic fields that are hundreds of times with hollow current rings, provid- nity and one of the most and process the meeting, because of the tight- more intense than any previous mag- ing practical advantages over important services pro- of how the ened security measures now in netic field created in an Earth conventional “filled doughnut” vided to APS members. meeting place and new restrictions gov- laboratory and up to a billion times shapes. Simulations suggest they To assure that the meet- runs, but not erning travel. stronger than our planet’s natural will allow faster turn-on and greater ings are as productive issues like “Physics is such an interna- magnetic field. Such intense mag- efficiency of future nuclear fusion and enjoyable as pos- content or tional discipline that we have to netic fields may soon enable power plants. Plasma doughnuts sible for members, the location,” be concerned with how this will researchers to recreate, extreme normally carry large electric cur- Society has a Commit- said commit- affect foreign students and astrophysical conditions, such as the rents throughout their volume but tee on Meetings. It David Tanner tee chair postdocs who are studying and atmospheres of neutron stars and researchers expected the direction consists of eight indi- David Tan- working in this country,” said Tan- white dwarfs (in their very own labo- of the current could be changed viduals —six APS members and ner, a physics professor from the ner. “The committee is being ratories.) back and forth. two APS officers—and serves to University of Florida at Gaines- responsible by thinking about At the Appleton Lab, research- However, in recent experiments monitor the status of the meet- ville. “We cover most of the this early, especially by consider- ers at the VULCAN facility aimed at the Joint European Torus (JET) ings and provide guidance to the meetings that APS runs, but re- ing the foreign citizens in the U.S. intense laser pulses, lasting only and JT-60U tokamaks in England APS staff on issues relating to the ally focus on the March and April It could be a nasty situation if it is picoseconds, at a dense plasma. and Japan, researchers tried to general meetings. Meetings.” not handled right.” The resulting magnetic fields in the reverse the current and found that “The committee acts as advi- Review of registration fees is While it is too early to take plasma were on the order of 400 the current doughnut became hol- sor to the Meetings Department, undertaken by the committee specific action yet, the committee Megagauss. Due to technological low. Now computer simulations which handles all of the logistics every year or two. At this year’s members said they will follow travel advances, peak laser intensities are conducted by researchers at the for the meetings, and works with meeting, the committee weighed guidelines closely and, with the help likely to increase still further and DOE’s Princeton Plasma Physics the program committees to plan the propriety of a registration of APS director of inter- consequently even higher magnetic Laboratory (PPPL) using super- the programs,” said Donna fee increase for the March Meet- national affairs Irving Lerch, fields may soon be possible, computers at the National Baudrau, the Staff Advisor to the ing to cover additional costs. issue recommendations in the making it possible to put models Energy Research Supercomputer Committee and director of the After consulting with APS trea- months before the meeting. At its of extreme astrophysical condi- Center have explained this phe- Meetings Department. surer Thomas McIlrath, the most recent meeting, the commit- tions to the test by using X-rays to nomenon. Instead of the electric The committee’s function, she committee approved an increase tee emphasized that all members generate nuclear fusion. current reversing direction, the says, is to review the health and of $25 for members, $50 for of the physics community should Working toward the vision of plasma experiences magnetic efficacy of the meetings, includ- nonmembers, and $10 for stu- keep abreast of international travel generating clean energy from reconnection and the core ing finances, attendance levels dents and retirees. The increase laws, as they are changing rapidly nuclear fusion, researchers have becomes stabilized with zero cur- and demographics, and provide will offset the cost of expanding and could affect some physicists’ successfully imploded fuel cap- rent. As soon as a current tries to advice on matters such as regis- the audio-visual package that ability to travel to the meeting. sules by bombarding them with reverse in the center, it is pulled tration fees, audiovisual policy, will include LCD projectors in Committee member Kate intense x-rays. The results show into the outer ring. This new abstract submission, existing pro- every room for the first time. Kirby says the committee does an that the process generates signifi- understanding should allow a more grams and new program These will be in addition to the important job. “Meetings are an cant fusion and that the implosion practical design of compact next- proposals. The committee also re- overhead projectors that have extremely important aspect of method looks capable of generat- generation fusion experiments. views the status of ancillary been traditionally provided. service to the APS membership,” ing large-scale energy production. Turbulence Restrains ItselfItself. programs at the meetings, such Another concern for the Kirby said. “It is critical that the In one set of experiments, a Magnetically confined plasmas in as the Student Lunch with committee right now is the 2004 Meetings Department of APS high degree of symmetry has been tokamaks and related fusion Experts, and the child care ser- March Meeting, which will take carry out planning and discuss achieved in the implosion process. devices exhibit a high degree of tur- vice provided at the March place in Montreal. The commit- policy issues with a committee of In another set of experiments, bulence, which can generally destroy Meeting. tee is concerned that physicists APS members.” researchers observed significant the optimal conditions for produc- “The committee considers in the United States on visas, and —Desirée Scorcia production of neutrons, a sign of ing fusion energy. Now, scientists nuclear fusion. These successful have experimentally confirmed that experiments are an important step turbulence can actually limit its own toward ignition, the level at which ability to wreak havoc. Researchers APS Council Approves Study on the fusion reaction becomes self- at the DIII-D tokamak at General sustaining and excess energy can Atomics have discovered that turbu- be drawn from the process for lence generates its own flows that Humanitarian De-Mining other applications. act as a self-regulating mechanism. At its November meeting, the the development of and evalua- technical dimensions of the prob- First 3D Magnetic These flows create a “shearing” APS Council approved the initia- tion of new technologies that are lem are immense, including elec- Reconnection MeasurementsMeasurements. In action that destroys turbulent eddies. tion of a study on humanitarian yet to be incorporated into exist- tromagnetic signatures, infrared, work that promises new insights These turbulent flows have de-mining, pending the acquisi- ing programs.” millimeter waves, conductivity and into the cosmos and fusion-energy been clearly observed in recent tion of sufficient external funds to According to Sessler, the U.S. resistivity, quadrupole resonance, production alike, physicists have experiments at DIII-D by using a cover the cost of such a study. An General Accounting Office (GAO) X-ray fluorescence, acoustic sens- reported they have made the first special imaging system, which is official charge will be developed estimates that approximately 127 ing, and neutron activation. 3D laboratory measurements of helping to advance researchers’ and members appointed once million landmines in 55 countries Part of the study’s focus will magnetic recon-nection, the main understanding of this complex and funding has been obtained. The cause some 20,000 casualties be to help identify the most prom- process by which magnetic fields crucial phenomena taking place in proposal arose from the APS each year. While there is an obvi- ising new technologies for release energy in the universe. This high temperature fusion plasmas. Panel on Public Affairs (POPA), ous need to detect, disarm, and humanitarian de-mining. This process is thought to heat the so- The roiling turbulence inside and calls for an extended study of remove the landmines, the cur- will require a fairly detailed tech- over 18 months, with a panel of rent pace is very limited and ex- nical assessment of various lar corona, as well as to accelerate tokamaks represents some of the 15 physicists and engineers and isting programs require risky, technologies, and hence the particles to high energies, possibly most complex physics on the a full-time study director. The in- manpower-intensive techniques study panel will include not just even to the very high energies of planet. Using the full power of the tended audience includes private that cost as much as $1,000 to physicists familiar with basic sen- cosmic rays. Magnetic recon- world’s largest supercomputers, foundations, members of Con- remove a $3 mine. Current glo- sors, but also engineers with nection is also an important pro- scientists have now been able to gress and their staff, international bal budgets for manual detection experience in developing new cess in some experimental fusion fully simulate the movement of agencies, the U.S. Departments and removal of mines are only technologies for field use. The energy reactors that use magnetic tokamak particles and heat due to of Defense and State. about $200 million per year, study will review the contribu- fields to confine the plasma. turbulence. Implementing new “We expect the report will help which means it would require tions of the DOD and the engi- Until recently, this process has algorithms to incorporate very funding agencies, especially those hundreds of years to solve the neering communities, and then been studied only in two dimen- complex physics, they included the having little technical capability, to problem with money alone. focus upon the area of long-term better decide upon which tech- New and more reliable tech- R&D beyond the horizon of sions. Now, 3D experimental effects of super-fast electrons and nologies to support for research, nologies, and significant im- private companies. measurements of magnetic the recent practice of rotating the design and development,” says provements to existing technolo- A Back Page on de-mining reconnection have been made at plasma, for higher-pressure toka- Andrew Sessler (University of Cali- gies, are needed to will allow appeared in the July 2002 issue of the Swarthmore Spheromak mak operation and higher-energy fornia, Berkeley), who co-wrote the faster, cheaper de-mining. The APS News. It was written by Experiment (SSX) at Swarthmore output. These simulations may also proposal with Surajit Sen of SUNY- GAO has identified 19 technolo- Richard Craig of Pacific Northwest College. At SSX, physicists merge help greatly in making reliable pre- Buffalo. “We also expect that the gies that have been considered National Laboratory, and is avail- rings of magnetized plasma called dictions for larger tokamaks and study will stimulate the involvement for de-mining, 17 of which are able online at http://www.aps.org/ spheromaks. Measurements future commercial-scale fusion of the community of physicists in physics based. The scientific and apsnews/0702/070209.html . reveal a swept and sheared mag- reactors. NEWS January 2003 7 ANNOUNCEMENTS

APS Mass Media Fellowship Program Prize & Award Applications are now being accepted for the 2003 summer Nominations http://focus.aps.org APS Mass Media Fellowships. http://www.aps.org/praw/ In affiliation with the popular AAAS program, the APS is sponsor- Otto Laporte Award Down-to-earth accounts of hot research from the ing two ten-week fellowships for physics students to work full-time Physical Review journals—ideal for college physics majors and over the summer as reporters, researchers, and production assis- DEADLINE: 01/10/03 researchers interested in work outside their specialty. Write to tants in mass media organizations nationwide. Information on Endowed by the friends of Otto Laporte and the Division of Fluid Dynamics. [email protected] application requirements can be found at http://www.aps.org/ [email protected] to get weekly e-mail updates. Purpose: To recognize outstanding public_affairs/massmedia/index.shtml. research accomplishments pertaining to Some November and December Focus Stories: DEADLINE: JANUARY 24, 2003 the physics of fluids. Fluid Dynamics Prize Underwater Desert FELLOWSHIP PROGRAMS DEADLINE: 01/10/03 A new technique generates miniature dunes in a Supported by friends of the Division of water tank and appears to verify fundamental APS/AIP CONGRESSIONAL SCIENCE FELLOWSHIP Fluid Dynamics and the AIP journal principles of dune formation. The American Physical Society and the American Institute of Physics of Fluids. Physics are accepting applications for their 2003-2004 Purpose: To recognize and encourage New Nano Capacity Congressional Science Fellowship programs. Fellows serve outstanding achievement in fluid A quantum mechanical effect seems to explain dynamics research. one year on the staff of a Member of Congress or amplification in a component that might replace congressional committee, learning the legislative process Nicholas Metropolis Award for transistors in nanoscale circuits. while lending scientific expertise to public policy issues. Outstanding Doctoral Thesis Work in Application deadline is January 15, 2003. Computational Physics Light Given New Direction For more information, visit: http://www.aip.org/ DEADLINE: 01/31/03 A slab of a new kind of material can focus pubinfo or http://www.aps.org/public_affairs/ Establishment and Support: The award is diverging electromagnetic waves into a narrow cone. fellow/ supported by the Journal of Computational Physics, a publication of Academic Press. Purpose: To recognize doctoral thesis Detecting Dark Dimensions Now Appearing in RMP research of outstanding quality and Dark matter arising from extra spatial dimensions Recently Posted Reviews and Colloquia achievement in computational physics. could be detected with existing or future experiments.

You will find the following in the collapse dynamics are still problematic with questions on the effects of convection, online edition of Reviews of APS Council and Committee Position Nominations Modern Physics at rotation, and magnetic fields. http://rmp.aps.org. Helioseismology VICE-PRESIDENT; GENERAL COUNCILLOR (2); NOMINATING COMMITTEE; Vice-Chairperson-Elect • Members; PANEL ON The evolution and explosion of —Jorgen Christensen-Dalsgaard. Visit Photons tell us about the sun’s surface and PUBLIC AFFAIRS; Vice-Chairperson-Elect • Members massive stars neutrinos about the inner core, but the only —S.E. Woosley, A. Heger, and T.A. probe of the bulk in between is Please send your nominations to: American Physical Society; One APS News Weaver helioseismology. As described in the article, Physics Ellipse; College Park, MD 20740-3844; Attn: Ken Cole; We are made, aphoristically, of star dust, solar oscillation frequencies can be (301) 209-3288; fax: (301) 209-0865; email: [email protected]. A Online the debris from supernova explosions. The measured with high precision; they are processes leading up to these explosions sensitive to the internal distributions of nomination form is available at http://www.aps.org/exec/ are the subject of this review of massive sound, speed, and density, and hence nomform.html. http:// www.aps.org/apsnews/ star evolution. While the nuclear reactions temperature and composition, as well as are fairly well understood, the post- rotation and other flows in the solar interior. DEADLINE: JANUARY 31, 2003

CONDUCT, from page 1

conferences, or provide scientific enable other responsible scientists to nate events, our actions make clear professional societies, take appro- sional Ethics, Standards and Prac- leadership for junior colleagues.” share the data. All members of a col- the professional consequences of priate steps to discourage such tices. The APS calls on its members “Coauthors who make specific, laboration should be familiar with, research misconduct.” conduct and have policies and and units to actively promote edu- limited contributions to a paper are and understand, the process.” The APS Council believes that procedures in place to deal with cation in this area, in line with its responsible for them but may have “These actions are our initial research misconduct is extremely allegations of misconduct.” belief that “it is part of the respon- only limited responsibility for other response to the recent findings of damaging as it “diminishes the vital As concrete recommendations, sibility of all scientists to ensure results,” the guidelines state. Fur- major research misconduct,” said trust that scientists have in each the APS Council urges that all fed- that all their students receive train- thermore, “any individual unwilling James Tsang, chair of the APS Panel other”, “undermines public confi- eral agencies complete their ing” specifically in professional or unable to accept appropriate on Public Affairs. “Those findings dence in science” and “can lead required implementations of mis- ethics and standards. The APS responsibility for a paper should challenged many cherished significant numbers of scientists conduct policy and that all Council sees this as an ongoing not be a coauthor.” assumptions and beliefs. We have along fruitless paths” according to research institutions, regardless of project and is establishing a task To assist coauthors in fulfilling reaffirmed our community’s com- its new Statement on Policies for funding, develop and implement force to monitor progress and their responsibilities, the APS Coun- mitment to high professional Handling Allegations of Research plans consistent with the Federal consider new steps regarding cil resolved that, “Collaborations are standards and that such standards Misconduct. The Statement contin- Policy on Research Misconduct. ethics, standards and practices for expected to have a process to archive are essential to both good science ues, “It is imperative, therefore, that Some of the procedures the APS the society. Serving on the task and verify the research record; to and public confidence. We have the institutions responsible for the plans to implement are outlined in force will be Frances Houle, E. W. facilitate internal communication and extended previous guidelines in funding and performance of scien- the newly adopted Statement on “Rocky” Kolb, Kate Kirby, and Joe allow authors to be fully aware of describing our expectations for tific research, as well as the relevant Improving Education for Profes- Hamilton. the entire work; and respond to ques- professional conduct by physicists. tions concerning the joint work and Together with the recent unfortu- LETTERS, from page 4

PHILADELPHIA, from page 1 In another letter Mike Kent says, think he is moving in the right direc- work, and authorship of the “Intelligent design and naturalism are tion, but one issue that deserved more paper. Participants should be scientific amusements. with Raymond Davis, Jr. of the both possible inferences that one might attention was multiple “authorship” on encouraged to write their own Speakers at the three plenary Brookhaven National Laboratory make from the data and knowledge of papers reporting results of big physics papers, in addition to the “main” sessions will cover a broad range of top- (See APS News, December 2002), science.” There is absolutely no evi- projects. Some of the reports have report bearing everyone’s name. ics, including the mysteries of extra The two men will discuss the dence that there has been artificial listed several hundred participants as The actual authors should be dimensions, antimatter, quantum research for which they were hon- selection in the evolution of life on this “authors”. This doesn’t add up: 300 revealed, so they might be con- chaos, and the study of matter, space ored by the Swedish Academy. planet, other than that done by hu- authors on a 3,000-word paper equals tacted by readers for meaningful and time at the energy frontier. There mans. When he says “intelligent 10 words per author. Should contrib- comment, criticism, or questions. will also be several talks on topics in SARACHIK, from page 3 design”, he is referring to the Judeo- uting 10 words mean coauthorship of I would suggest that the team astrophysics, such as the current Christian God. This is another example a 3,000 word paper? leader, or a designated author, write status of gamma-ray bursts, solar neu- for me to do. I would urge all physi- of someone pretending that belief in I think not. This is just an honor- such a report. The many other par- trinos, and observations (by the cists in all subfields and in all magic constitutes a scientific theory. ific form of authorship which shifts ticipants possibly should be listed Chandra Observatory) of supernova sectors to join the Society because They don’t want to come out and say responsibility away from the NOT as authors, but as other val- remnants and young neutron stars. the APS represents us all. The phys- it, because they know how ridiculous person(s) actually writing the report. ued team members. Perhaps all the The latter two topics will also be ics community needs to stay in that sounds, but that’s the implication. Many of these “authors” will have names should be listed on the first addressed on Saturday, April 5, dur- touch with us and I urge APS mem- Jeffery Winkler contributed calculations, “crystals” page, as often done—but not as “au- ing a special invited session featuring bers to inform us of their concerns Hanford, California (as mentioned by Brinkman), thors”; rather, perhaps, as “project Riccardo Giacconi of Associated and needs, and to play an active unique insights, criticism, etc.—but contributors”, “scientific cowork- Researchers Inc. and Masatoshi role in the Society’s affairs. I was Authorship Should be none of these justify mention as ers”, or something along these lines. Koshiba of the International Center given a special opportunity to serve Limited other than a technical assistant, con- Socialistic honorifics are just as bad for Elementary Particle Physics in the APS when I was asked to run I read W. Brinkman’s “Scientific sultant, or peer reviewer. as royal honorifics, as I see it. Tokyo, Japan, co-recipients of the for president. And I’m delighted Fraud—Lessons Learned” (APS News There are two distinct efforts John Michael Williams 2002 Nobel Prize in Physics, along have the opportunity to do so. November 2002 issue) with interest. I in such projects: Completion of the Redwood City, California 8 January 2003 NEWS THE BACK PAGE Science, Uncertainty and Risk: The Problem of Complex Phenomena By Richard L. Wagner, Jr.

Science is increasingly involved absence of nuclear testing. How to confidence in assessing uncer- uncertainties directly on measure- in making statements about physi- assess and describe the uncertain- tainty. Scientists deal with complex ment, perhaps even on cal phenomena that influence, and ties in the physics and engineering phenomena in many ways. The measurement error, but the rela- are influenced by, human activities. involved, and how to establish the following conceptualization will, I tionship between some of the The discourse among scientists, basis of confidence in statements believe, serve to illustrate the performance parameters and what policy-makers and the public about about those uncertainties, are ques- underlying problem of under- has been and can be measured is such phenomena is likely to tions that are getting increased standing and describing the unclear. This is in part because of become increasingly important attention at the Los Alamos and connectedness of less-than-defini- the difficulty in scaling across wide and increasingly difficult. Climate Livermore laboratories, as well as tive experiment to assessments of ranges of size and energy density. change is a famous example. There from scientists outside those facili- uncertainty. The hardest part is structuring and are many more such cases today, ties. There could be a mutually Sciences approach many com- interrelating the uncertainties, and there will be many more in the beneficial interaction between plex phenomena by building including those that can’t be quan- future. scientists thinking about how to models, often large computational tified. Thus far there has been little This particular discourse is about assess confidence in statements models. The structure of such mod- explicit attention to metrics and risk, and about how polities assess about other complex physical phe- els is often to disaggregate the frameworks for these relationships and manage risk through processes nomena and those who are overall integral phenomenon in between experiment and confi- Richard L. Wagner, Jr. which are difficult and imperfect. thinking about this problem in question into less complex compo- dence or uncertainty. The whole How scientists assess and portray terms of the weapons application. nents, continuing this process until, program is a work in progress, and uncertainty in what we say about Whether or not the nuclear at the finest level of detail, the basis for confidence in that assess- there is no guarantee of success. complex physical phenomena is weapons case proves illuminating, individual phenomena—what ment, especially absent definitive I do not see a clear way for- also difficult and imperfect. To more attention should be focused scientists consider fundamental — experiment. Using small-scale ward for addressing the problem improve communication, the pub- are isolated and can be dealt with experiments raises problems of I have posed and illustrated in lic and decision-makers must come by well-established theory, the scaling and specification of bound- this article. Perhaps it will not be to understand science better. For “…we should result of all the previous efforts in ary conditions. solved, only improved. Bringing our part, scientists must work on look again at the science. Since the last U.S. nuclear test a the emerging theories of com- our side of the gap by learning how This is the classic reductionist decade ago, Los Alamos and plexity to bear on how models to better assess and describe the fundamental: at our approach of science. But for the Livermore have carried out a large reaggregate phenomena might be basis for confidence in what we say, basis for confidence in complex phenomena at issue here, program to strengthen the scien- one avenue of approach. particularly about uncertainties. assessing uncertainty.” the models must reaggregate the tific underpinnings of the Developing strategies for model The touchstone for confidence phenomena, and each of them, phenomena that occur during development that allow models in science’s statements about even those considered fundamen- nuclear explosions. Supporting this to be more amenable to experi- physical phenomena is experiment. expressly on developing better tal, have uncertainties associated work are large facilities for non- ments that check how the Richard Feynman once said, “The ways by which confidence and with them. These uncertainties may nuclear experiments, with more on disaggregations are reintegrated test of all knowledge is experiment. doubt, certainty and uncertainty, be as simple and fundamental as the way, and computational power might be another. Experiment is the sole judge of about complex physical phenom- experimental uncertainty in mea- already in the tens of teraflops. Still another might be develop- scientific ‘truth’.” But increasingly, ena can be assessed and conveyed, suring the values of physical Funding applied to this work has ing structured methods by which for many phenomena at the inter- especially where definitive, constants, but often they are much been several billion dollars. It may uncertainties in the integrated section of science, public designed and controlled experi- more complicated. As the model be the world’s largest, single cur- phenomena are tied as directly as understanding, and policy deci- ments cannot be done. This should integrates them, the uncertainties rent program in applied science possible to those experiments that sions, it is impossible to do the be a project for science in the com- concatenate in complex, nonlinear focused on a particular set of com- can be done. Ultimately, how much definitive experiment(s). One ing decades. ways. In developing the model’s plex phenomena. credence to place in the predic- could hardly validate climate mod- I previously referred to climate strategies for disaggregation and In that program, the problem tions of various models is based in els by inducing a deliberate change change. As human activity increas- reintegration, judgments are made of assessing uncertainty, and the the judgment of those who under- in climate. Indeed, the more com- ingly impinges on the ecosphere, —often on the basis of physical basis for confidence in those stand them, their relation to plex the phenomenon, the more as it will, virtually every aspect of intuition—about how these assessments, without the ability to experiment, and the experiments important and more difficult it is the physical and biological func- nonlinearities work, and how much do definitive experiments (i.e., themselves. If that judgment can to design sufficient experimental tioning of the ecosphere, including computational and experimental nuclear tests), has much in com- be parsed out, and reduced as validation. Controlled experiments ourselves, is likely to become the effort should be applied to each of mon with the other kinds of much as possible to judgments can often be done for disaggre- subject of risk assessment and man- the disaggregated phenomena. complex phenomena I have about the possibilities of system- gated pieces of a complex, integral agement. One hundred years ago, These problems are not so bad described. But it differs in one use- atic error in experiment, some phenomenon, but without the ecosphere was essentially sov- when designed, controlled experi- ful way: nuclear tests were done, progress will have been made. designed integral experiment, how ereign in its functioning. Now, we ments can be done to measure with extensive measurements of the It is not too sweeping to say that the errors and uncertainties aggre- are trying to limit the impact of many aspects of the phenomenon phenomena involved, many times the scientific method cannot be gate will remain in doubt, further human activity on it. Despite our to validate the models. But when before the last U.S. nuclear test. fully applied in the cases of com- complicating risk assessment and current efforts, 50 or 100 years such experiments cannot be done, And it may be useful in a more par- plex phenomena for which management. from now, human activity may be estimating uncertainty becomes ticular sense. A pivotal issue is designed, controlled experiments This is both an epistemological sovereign, and a properly func- very difficult. Often, designed whether the data from those cannot be done. And there are problem of some depth and a prac- tioning ecosphere may be one that experiments can be done at inter- nuclear test measurements are suf- profound implications, for science tical one in terms of how science is engineered. (For many reasons, mediate levels of aggregation, and ficient to validate the models with and its applications, in the inabil- is applied, and developing I personally find this worse than measurements can almost always enough rigor to allow confident ity to use the scientific method in approaches to it might be termed painful to contemplate. But it may be made on aspects of the overall statements about the performance these matters. applied epistemology. Making be a reality we should prepare for, phenomenon. But insidious fudge of weapons in configurations that The claims of science to “truth” progress will require sustained although doing so might make it a factors can creep in, especially are to some degree different— are under attack in certain quar- effort aimed expressly at this prob- self-fulfilling prophecy.) If human- when the models being validated because of aging or remanufacture ters. I think most scientists believe lem. Useful approaches are likely kind must engineer the future are used to interpret the measure- —from the configurations tested. these attacks are either without to focus on how those experi- ecosphere, it will be an imperative ments. An even more fundamental Within this program, structured basis or are based on a misunder- ments that can be done relate to of truly historical proportions for problem is captured in the old saw, approaches to assessing uncer- standing of scientific claims. But as confidence or doubt about under- science to be able to accurately “Nobody believes a calculation tainty are just beginning to emerge, the stakes rise, these attacks are standing and prediction of the assess uncertainty and convey the except the person who did it, and and currently come under the likely to intensify, and they will overall, integrated phenomenon. basis for confidence in those everybody believes an experiment heading, “Quantifications of Mar- hinder the ability of science to con- There are, of course, well-estab- assessments. except the person who did it.” gins and Uncertainties” (QMU). tribute. Developing, during the lished fields of study in which Of course, scientists usually Complexity theory offers a dif- The “margins” are between accept- next decades, something like an observations and measurements work very hard to assess the ferent conceptualization of how able values for the performance extension of the scientific method can be made, but controlled, de- uncertainties in their predictions. scientists deal with complex non- and reliability parameters of vari- that deals with confidence and signed experiments on the entire The climate community is a fine linear phenomena. It deals head-on ous phenomena, and the predicted uncertainty when definitive phenomenon cannot be done, as example. Despite this, such assess- with the problems of reintegration values. Defining those margins and experiments cannot be done is a is the case with many questions in ments often turn out to have been of disaggregated phenomena by how the various performance crucially important task for the astrophysics. Another set of com- wrong, and as the stakes of being treating features of the overall phe- parameters relate to each other is scientific community to attempt. plex physical phenomena is wrong increase, as they will, per- nomenon as emergent behavior. not easy. Neither is quantifying Richard L. Wagner, Jr., is a senior involved in the question of reliabil- haps we should look again at the But the problem still remains of uncertainties. We would like to be staff member at Los Alamos National ity of nuclear weapons in the fundamentals: at our basis for assessing uncertainty, and the able to base statements about Laboratory.

APS News welcomes and encourages letters and submissions from its members responding to these and other issues. Responses may be sent to: [email protected].