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Don't Be Rude About the Market

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Don't Be Rude About the Market Monday 13 April 2015 Don’t be rude about the market The talk about a market crash won’t go away and probably isn’t going to go away any time soon. But that doesn’t mean it’s going to happen. Not yet anyway. There will be a time when I go negative on stocks but it’s not today. Also in the Switzer Super Report today, Paul Rickard compares Woolworths with Coles. Although both have been having a bit of a rough ride of late, he’s erring on the side of Coles ie Wesfarmers. James Dunn has dug through the small and mid cap stocks to come up with five good yielders for under $5 and in Buy, Sell, Hold – what the brokers say, commodity producers get a drumming, including BHP, although there were upgrades for Alumina and Evolution Mining. Don’t miss Shortlisted – Super Stock Selectors to find out what the experts like. Mayne Pharma and Novogen are two “likes” and it should come as no surprise that iron ore producers get lots of “dislikes”. And our property report wraps up the week after Easter at the auctions. Sincerely, Peter Switzer 02 Woolies or Coles? Inside this Issue by Paul Rickard 05 How worried should you be about a market crash? by Peter Switzer 08 Five top yielders under $5 by James Dunn 11 Buy, Sell, Hold – what the brokers say by Rudi Filapek-Vandyck Woolies or Coles? 13 Shortlisted – Super Stock Selectors by Paul Rickard by Penny Pryor 02 15 Property recovers from Easter lull by Switzer Super Report Important information: This content has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. It does Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org) not constitute formal advice. For this reason, any individual should, before Switzer Super Report is published by Switzer Financial Group Pty Ltd AFSL No. 286 531 acting, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the 36-40 Queen Street, Woollahra, 2025 individual's objectives, financial situation and needs and, if necessary, seek T: 1300 SWITZER (1300 794 8937) F: (02) 9327 4366 appropriate professional advice. Woolies or Coles? by Paul Rickard Key points Tesco Plc – Share Price April 2010 to April 2015 Woolworths continues to lose the war in its key Australian supermarket business to Coles, Aldi and the others. While Coles is the leading contributor to Wesfarmer’s earnings (42%), the other retailing businesses (Bunnings, Officeworks, Kmart and Target) contribute a further 49%. The short position in Woolworths is now out to 90 million shares (or 7.21% of the total number of ordinary shares). The shorters don’t always get it right, however they are a powerful force to bet against. Source: Bloomberg Before turning back to the question of Woolies or Coles, let’s look at what is happening in each of Woolworths shareholders have been doing it tough. these companies. In the year to March, the share price fell from $35.72 to $29.49. Adding back dividends, this led to a total Woolies struggles return of -13.55%. Compared to the S&P/ASX 200 index, which returned 14.13%, Woolworths Woolworths continues to lose the war in its key underperformed by almost 28%. Australian supermarket business to Coles, Aldi and the others. Market share is slipping, and sales growth Wesfarmers, the company that owns Coles, Kmart, in stagnant. Comparable store sales growth for the Target and Bunnings, faired a little better. Its shares 1st quarter (compared with the same quarter last rose over this period from $41.08 to $43.96, which year) was up by only 2.1%, and in the 2nd quarter with dividends generated a total return of 11.98% – ending 4 January 2015, by a very miserable 1.2%. By still less than the index. comparison, Coles grew comparable store sales of food and liquor by 4.3% in the 1st quarter and 4.0% To be fair on Woolworths, most of the fall in share for the 2nd quarter. price has happened over the last five months, as ongoing concern about sales momentum and The worrying point is that the gap is accelerating. continuing losses in the Masters homeware business Commenting on its sales performance, Woolworths led many analysts to turn decidedly bearish on the went close to acknowledging a couple of own goals. company. Further, investors have been looking at the rout in the share price of UK retailers Tesco and ‘While our “Cheap Cheap” campaign has been well Sainsbury, where competition from discount retailers received by customers, our promotional programs Aldi, Costco and Lidl is robust, and wondering were not as successful as we expected and we did whether this could also happen here. not see the improvement in price perception we 02 anticipated during the quarter. We should have also invested more into in-store service during the critical Christmas trading period”. Next, there are the ongoing problems with the Masters home improvement business. Losses increased from $71.9 million in the first half FY14 to $112.2 million in first half FY15. While this loss and Masters sales growth of 28.5% were broadly in line with expectations, there doesn’t seem to be any near term path to profitability. Finally, there is Big W. A key strategic project for Although Bunnings, Officeworks and Kmart are on Woolworths, the turnaround of the struggling general fire, the Wesfarmers conglomerate is not without its merchandiser continues. EBIT before significant challenges. Target continues to disappoint. items fell by 9.0% to $109.7 million, as comparable Comparable store sales growth was flat in the second store sales fell by 5.4% for the half year (6.5% in the quarter and fell by 1.0% over the half year. Divisional second quarter). Despite the sales decline, there has EBIT at $70 million for the December half year was been an increase in gross margin and the second unchanged from the previous corresponding period, quarter is said to show improving profitability. representing a deplorable return on capital of just 3.2%. The biggest concern, however, remains the long-term risk of an erosion in margin and decline in profitability The Coles business is also not yet starring in the from any “price war” in the supermarket business. return on capital metric. It has improved to 10.6% in Woolworths margin (EBIT to sales) in Australian food, CY2014 from 10.0% in CY2013, although this is a liquor and petrol is high by international standards at long way short of Bunnings at 31.6%. And while 7.43%, and compares to Coles food and liquor Coles clearly has the sales momentum over margin of just 5.3%. With annual sales in Woolworths in the food area, Coles Liquor has been Woolworth’s food, liquor, and petrol division of $50 struggling. billion – a 0.50% reduction in margin means a $250 million hit to the bottom line – a 1% reduction is worth The brokers $500 million. The brokers don’t like either company at the Wesfarmers is more than just Coles moment, with Wesfarmers a little less disliked. According to FN Arena, sentiment for Wesfarmers is While Coles is the leading contributor to Wesfarmer’s -0.4 (scale -1.0 most negative, +1.0 most positive), earnings (42%), the other retailing businesses compared to Woolworths’ sentiment rating of (Bunnings, Officeworks, Kmart and Target) contribute -0.6. a further 49%. The last elements of the Wesfarmers conglomerate – Coal, Industrial & Safety and Chemicals, Energy and Fertiliser contribute just 9%. In terms of capital employed, these latter three divisions consume about 15% of Wesfarmer’s Source: FN Arena, prices as at COB 10 April 2015 capital. Wesfarmers is trading at a premium to Woolworths. EBIT from continuing operations grew at 5.9% at Wesfarmers in the most recent half year, compared to normalised growth of 4.0% at Woolworths. With an active capital management strategy in place, this translated to EPS (earnings per share) growth at 03 Wesfarmers of 9.6% compared to 4.0% at Woolworths. In part response to this, the market has Wesfarmers trading at a FY16 PE of 18.7 compared to 15.1 for Woolworths – an effective premium of 24%. Bottom Line Can Wesfarmers substantiate a pricing premium of 24%? It certainly has the sales momentum with Coles, a powering home improvement division, and doesn’t appear as vulnerable as Woolworths to a price war. Moreover, the analysts haven’t lost faith in the company. And if you are a believer in “follow the money”, then there is only one way to go. According to the latest ASIC figures, the short position in Woolworths is now out to 91 million shares (or 7.21% of the total number of ordinary shares). This is a staggering position for a ‘top 10’ company –worth about $2.6bn – and compares with 9 million shares (0.77%) in Wesfarmers worth about $0.4bn. The shorters don’t always get it right, however they are a powerful force to bet against. In the short term, both stocks will lag the broader market if it moves higher. It is pretty line-ball, but if you had to pick just one stock (to maintain some sector exposure), then Wesfarmers gets the nod. Longer term, Woolworths will prove at some stage to be an attractive buy but it’s too early yet. Around $25 to $26, the stock could withstand a dividend cut of 20% and still yield 4.4% (fully franked), so there is argument that the downside price risk is not that high.
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