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J Contentree(036420.KS) J Contentree (036420.KS) To leap forward this year as true content provider J Contentree’s 4Q19 OP is to arrive well below consensus. With slow earnings Company Comment │ Jan 16, 2020 growth for the film division looking inevitable, we lower our TP to W52,000. But, we adhere to a Buy rating, believing that with the OP contribution from its broadcasting division rising, the firm is well positioned to benefit from a favorable external environment (global OTTs, resuming sales to China). Buy (maintain) TP W52,000 (lower) Focus on higher OP contribution from broadcasting arm rather than CP (20/01/15) W43,550 stagnant growth at film division Sector Media/entertainment Kospi/Kosdaq 2,230.98 / 679.16 With sluggish earnings growth for its the film division appearing inevitable, we lower Market cap (common) US$541.6mn our TP on J Contentree by 12% from W59,000 to W52,000. In calculating our the new Outstanding shares (common) 14.4mn TP, we have applied a 2020E target EV/EBITDA of 13x (vs 2019E: 15x) for the 52W high (’19/04/24) W57,900 broadcasting division and 7x (vs 7.5x) for the film division. We have revised up our low (’19/08/26) W32,250 earnings forecasts for the broadcasting division in light of: 1) the securing of additional Average trading value (60D) US$4.8mn drama slots (Wednesday/Thursday); and 2) binding contracts with Netflix. However, we Dividend yield (2020F) 0.00% downwardly adjust our earnings projectuions for the film division to reflect likely slow Foreign ownership 4.2% box office peformance. On the other hand, with the OP contribution from its broadcasting Major shareholders division rising, the firm is well positioned to benefit from a favorable external Joongang Holdings and 1 other 33.3% environment (global OTTs, resuming sales to China). NPS 11.0% Share perf 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) 26.4 -6.7 -18.3 2020: To leap forward as true content provider Relative (%p) 17.2 -13.0 -23.2 We expect J Contentree to emerge as a true content provider this year. The broadcasting 2018 2019E 2020F 2021F division’s contribution to overall OP should increase to over 40% in 2020 (vs 2019E: Sales 511.3 560.0 645.5 680.7 mid-20% range). Last year, the division greater internalized its content capabilities and secured certain levels of guaranteed annual overseas sales, helped by: 1) the acquisition Chg 21.7 9.5 15.3 5.5 of a drama production company and other equity investments; and 2) the inking of a OP 34.7 52.6 65.2 83.5 binding contract with Netflix (to provide 20 dramas over a three-year period to begin in Chg 4.2 51.6 24.0 28.1 May 2020). Moreover, new drama slots (Wednesday/Thursday) have been secured, and J OPM 6.8 9.4 10.1 12.3 Contentree’s new drama Ssanggap Pocha will be aired on these slots from this upcoming NP 18.4 19.2 27.7 36.3 May. And, produced by its subsidiary Film Monster, Now at our School is to represent J EPS 1,448 1,335 1,926 2,520 Contentree’s first Netflix original release. Chg 172.2 -7.8 44.3 30.8 P/E 30.8 28.9 22.6 17.3 4Q19 preview: Expectations high towards top-line growth, but keep P/B 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.5 eye on costs EV/EBITDA 9.5 4.4 4.4 3.4 ROE 7.4 5.5 7.5 9.0 On a consolidated basis, we estimate 4Q19 sales of W159.6bn (+19.6% y-y) and OP of Debt/equity 95.1 145.6 127.3 113.0 W10bn (136.7% y-y), with OP to come in well wide of the market projection. Net debt 1.3 -55.7 -101.6 -214.0 Broadcasting division: We size 4Q19 OP at W2.1bn (-15.1% y-y). Given the global Unit: Wbn, %, won, x Note 1: NP excludes minority interests broadcasting of dramas such as My Country, Chief of Staff S2, and Chocolate, there is a Note 2: EPS, P/E, P/B, ROE based on NP (excl minority interests) high possibility of an accelerated amortization of 60% for the company’s dramas whose Source: NH I&S Research Center estimates sales were recognized in 4Q19. In addition, we cannot rule out a possiblity that the firm was required to carry out additional amortization for unsuccessful dramas. Film division: We estimate 4Q19 OP of W7.9bn (+378.1% y-y), believing that domestic box office sales climbed 5% y-y and that there were no significant chances of one-off costs occurence. 4Q19 preview (K-IFRS consolidated) (Unit: Wbn, %) 4Q19E 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 1Q20F Revised y-y q-q Previous Consen Sales 133.4 126.3 131.1 143.0 159.6 19.6 11.5 151.6 149.2 142.2 OP 4.2 11.1 16.3 15.3 10.0 138.1 -34.7 13.3 14.9 14.2 OPM 3.2 8.8 12.4 10.7 6.3 8.7 12.1 10.0 Hazell Lee, Analyst Pre-tax profit 0.3 8.3 15.3 12.2 8.2 2,633 -32.8 11.5 11.6 15.6 822)768-7535, [email protected] NP (excl minority interests) 1.6 4.0 7.4 4.2 3.7 131.3 -11.3 6.6 6.4 7.1 Source: WISEfn, NH I&S Research Center estimates J Contentree www.nhqv.com Summary J Contentree operates an in-house holding company business, and it also runs (through its subsidiaries) film and broadcasting businesses. It was listed on the Kospi in Oct 2019. Its major subsidiaries are Megabox (73.5% stake; film) and JTBC Contenthub (44.1% stake, broadcasting), with IP management being its in-house business. The firm’s film and broadcasting arms represented 44.7% and 42.3%, respectively, of its 1H19 sales. Megabox stands as the number-three player in the domestic theater market, boasting strong cost competitiveness against its peers. Its broadcasting business is in the process of building up references with global players. We present a Buy rating and a TP of W52,000. Share price drivers/earnings momentum Downside risks Export contracts with non-Netflix global OTTs Contract with Netflix limiting firm’s drama production capability for other global OTTs Rising production cost and resultant margin improvement for original series dramas commissioned by global OTTs Weakening original series production demand from global OTTs Resumption of exports to China upon lifting of Chinese Stalled exports to China should restrictions on Korean content government ban on Korean content remain in place Successful listing of film subsidiary Megabox Delay in Megabox listing Cross valuations (Unit: x, %) Historical valuations (Unit: x, %) PER P/B ROE Company Valuations 2017 2018 2019E 2020F 2021F 2019E 2020F 2019E 2020F 2019E 2020F Netflix 84.6 56.4 21.5 15.9 23.6 27.3 P/E 97.5 30.8 28.9 22.6 17.3 Disney 25.9 26.7 2.6 2.8 16.1 10.4 P/B 4.0 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.5 CJ ENM 17.4 13.8 1.1 1.0 6.9 8.1 P/S 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 Studio Dragon 66.0 41.2 5.6 5.0 8.9 12.9 ROE 5.3 7.4 5.5 7.5 9.0 AStory 263.3 33.4 6.4 5.6 2.2 18.2 ROIC 4.8 7.9 11.9 9.3 11.9 Source: FnGuide, Bloomberg, NH I&S Research Center Source: FnGuide, NH I&S Research Center Historical key financials (Unit: Wbn, won, %) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Sales 123 137 393 380 369 306 335 420 511 OP 1 4 43 38 36 33 29 33 35 OPM (%) 0.6 2.6 10.8 10.0 9.9 10.8 8.6 7.9 6.8 Pre-tax profit -20 17 29 14 19 30 35 24 34 NP -22 18 24 4 15 20 22 11 26 NP (excl minority interests) -24 18 12 -10 0 11 19 6 18 EBITDA 10 14 63 61 58 50 43 59 77 Capex 3 1 11 14 25 16 91 33 29 Free cash flow -10 12 59 7 30 7 -73 -36 -4 EPS (won) -6,190 2,744 1,523 -1,311 -8 1,207 1,591 532 1,448 BPS (won) 1,738 10,814 12,333 11,356 11,719 5,166 6,944 13,105 23,391 DPS (won) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net debt 58 83 125 136 106 201 229 153 1 ROE (%) -607.1 40.0 13.2 -11.1 -0.1 15.0 26.3 5.3 7.4 ROIC (%) -0.1 5.8 28.4 6.5 10.7 11.9 6.7 4.8 7.9 DPR (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 DY (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net debt ratio (%) 364.5 101.8 94.9 98.3 64.0 256.4 183.4 65.1 0.3 Source: J Contentree, NH I&S Research Center 2 J Contentree www.nhqv.com Focus more on greater OP contribution from broadcasting business than on stalled film business growth While lowering our TP to W52,000, we maintain a Buy rating on J Contentree.
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